Bayesian estimation of genomic clines

We developed a Bayesian genomic cline model to study the genetic architecture of adaptive divergence and reproductive isolation between hybridizing lineages. This model quantifies locus‐specific patterns of introgression with two cline parameters that describe the probability of locus‐specific ancestry as a function of genome‐wide admixture. ‘Outlier’ loci with extreme patterns of introgression relative to most of the genome can be identified. These loci are potentially associated with adaptive divergence or reproductive isolation. We simulated genetic data for admixed populations that included neutral introgression, as well as loci that were subject to directional, epistatic or underdominant selection, and analysed these data using the Bayesian genomic cline model. Under many demographic conditions, underdominance or directional selection had detectable and predictable effects on cline parameters, and ‘outlier’ loci were greatly enriched for genetic regions affected by selection. We also analysed previously published genetic data from two transects through a hybrid zone between Mus domesticus and M. musculus. We found considerable variation in rates of introgression across the genome and particularly low rates of introgression for two X‐linked markers. There were similarities and differences in patterns of introgression between the two transects, which likely reflects a combination of stochastic variability because of genetic drift and geographic variation in the genetic architecture of reproductive isolation. By providing a robust framework to quantify and compare patterns of introgression among genetic regions and populations, the Bayesian genomic cline model will advance our understanding of the genetics of reproductive isolation and the speciation process.     

Bayesian estimation of genomic copy number with single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping arrays

Background

The identification of copy number aberration in the human genome is an important area in cancer research. We develop a model for determining genomic copy numbers using high-density single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping microarrays. The method is based on a Bayesian spatial normal mixture model with an unknown number of components corresponding to true copy numbers. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to implement the model and perform posterior inference.

Results

The performance of the algorithm is examined on both simulated and real cancer data, and it is compared with the popular CNAG algorithm for copy number detection.

Conclusions

We demonstrate that our Bayesian mixture model performs at least as well as the hidden Markov model based CNAG algorithm and in certain cases does better. One of the added advantages of our method is the flexibility of modeling normal cell contamination in tumor samples.     

Phylogeny reconstruction: increasing the accuracy of pairwise distance estimation using Bayesian inference of evolutionary rates

Distance-based methods for phylogeny reconstruction are the fastest and easiest to use, and their popularity is accordingly high. They are also the only known methods that can cope with huge datasets of thousands of sequences. These methods rely on evolutionary distance estimation and are sensitive to errors in such estimations. In this study, a novel Bayesian method for estimation of evolutionary distances is developed. The proposed method enables the use of a sophisticated evolutionary model that better accounts for among-site rate variation (ASRV), thereby improving the accuracy of distance estimation. Rate variations are estimated within a Bayesian framework by extracting information from the entire dataset of sequences, unlike standard methods that can only use one pair of sequences at a time. We compare the accuracy of a cascade of distance estimation methods, starting from commonly used methods and moving towards the more sophisticated novel method. Simulation studies show significant improvements in the accuracy of distance estimation by the novel method over the commonly used ones. We demonstrate the effect of the improved accuracy on tree reconstruction using both real and simulated protein sequence alignments. An implementation of this method is available as part of the SEMPHY package.     

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock'', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’.     

Bayesian estimation of range for microsatellite loci

Microsatellite loci have become important in population genetics because of their high level of polymorphism in natural populations, very frequent occurrence throughout the genome, and apparently high mutation rate. Observed repeat numbers (alleles size) in natural populations and expectations based on computer simulations suggest that the range of repeat numbers at a microsatellite locus is restricted. This range is a key parameter that should be properly estimated in order to proceed with calculations of divergence times in phylogenetic studies and to better investigate the within- and between-population variability. The 'plug-in' estimate of range based on the minimum and maximum value observed in a sample is not satisfactory because of the relatively large number of alleles in comparison with typical sample sizes. In this paper, a set of data from 30 dinucleotide microsatellite loci is analysed under the assumption of independence among loci. Bayesian inference on range for one locus is obtained by assuming that constraints on range values exist as sharp bounds. Closed-form calculations and robustness revealed by our analysis suggest that the proposed Bayesian approach might be routinely used by researchers to classify microsatellite loci according to the estimated value of their allelic range.     

Joint Bayesian estimation of alignment and phylogeny

We describe a novel model and algorithm for simultaneously estimating multiple molecular sequence alignments and the phylogenetic trees that relate the sequences. Unlike current techniques that base phylogeny estimates on a single estimate of the alignment, we take alignment uncertainty into account by considering all possible alignments. Furthermore, because the alignment and phylogeny are constructed simultaneously, a guide tree is not needed. This sidesteps the problem in which alignments created by progressive alignment are biased toward the guide tree used to generate them. Joint estimation also allows us to model rate variation between sites when estimating the alignment and to use the evidence in shared insertion/deletions (indels) to group sister taxa in the phylogeny. Our indel model makes use of affine gap penalties and considers indels of multiple letters. We make the simplifying assumption that the indel process is identical on all branches. As a result, the probability of a gap is independent of branch length. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to sample from the posterior of the joint model, estimating the most probable alignment and tree and their support simultaneously. We describe a new MCMC transition kernel that improves our algorithm's mixing efficiency, allowing the MCMC chains to converge even when started from arbitrary alignments. Our software implementation can estimate alignment uncertainty and we describe a method for summarizing this uncertainty in a single plot.     

Bayesian estimation and testing of gene frequencies

This article explains estimation of gene frequencies from a Bayesian viewpoint using prior information. How to obtain Bayes estimators and the highest posterior density credible sets (Bayesian counterpart to classical confidence intervals) for gene frequencies is described. Tests of hypotheses are also discussed. A readily available mathematical application package is used to demonstrate the mathematical computations.     

Bayesian estimation of concordance among gene trees

Multigene sequence data have great potential for elucidating important and interesting evolutionary processes, but statistical methods for extracting information from such data remain limited. Although various biological processes may cause different genes to have different genealogical histories (and hence different tree topologies), we also may expect that the number of distinct topologies among a set of genes is relatively small compared with the number of possible topologies. Therefore evidence about the tree topology for one gene should influence our inferences of the tree topology on a different gene, but to what extent? In this paper, we present a new approach for modeling and estimating concordance among a set of gene trees given aligned molecular sequence data. Our approach introduces a one-parameter probability distribution to describe the prior distribution of concordance among gene trees. We describe a novel 2-stage Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that first obtains independent Bayesian posterior probability distributions for individual genes using standard methods. These posterior distributions are then used as input for a second MCMC procedure that estimates a posterior distribution of gene-to-tree maps (GTMs). The posterior distribution of GTMs can then be summarized to provide revised posterior probability distributions for each gene (taking account of concordance) and to allow estimation of the proportion of the sampled genes for which any given clade is true (the sample-wide concordance factor). Further, under the assumption that the sampled genes are drawn randomly from a genome of known size, we show how one can obtain an estimate, with credibility intervals, on the proportion of the entire genome for which a clade is true (the genome-wide concordance factor). We demonstrate the method on a set of 106 genes from 8 yeast species.     

Bayesian point estimation of quantitative trait loci

In this article, we consider the problem of the estimation of quantitative trait loci (QTL), those chromosomal regions at which genetic information affecting some quantitative trait is encoded. Generally the number of such encoding sites is unknown, and associations between neutral molecular marker genotypes and observed trait phenotypes are sought to locate them. We consider a Bayesian model for simple experimental designs, and discuss the existing approaches to inference for this problem. In particular, we focus on locating positions of the best candidate markers segregating for the trait, a situation which is of primary interest in comparative mapping. We introduce a loss function for estimating both the number of QTL and their location, and we illustrate its application via simulated and real data.     

Bayesian inference for genomic imprinting underlying developmental characteristics

The identification of imprinted genes is becoming a standard procedure in searching for quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying complex traits. When a developmental characteristic such as growth or drug response is observed at multiple time points, understanding the dynamics of gene function governing the underlying feature should provide more biological information regarding the genetic control of an organism. Recognizing that differential imprinting can be development-specific, mapping imprinted genes considering the dynamic imprinting effect can provide additional biological insights into the epigenetic control of a complex trait. In this study, we proposed a Bayesian imprinted QTL (iQTL) mapping framework considering the dynamics of imprinting effects and model multiple iQTLs with an efficient Bayesian model selection procedure. The method overcomes the limitation of likelihood-based mapping procedure, and can simultaneously identify multiple iQTLs with different gene action modes across the whole genome with high computational efficiency. An inference procedure using Bayes factors to distinguish different imprinting patterns of iQTL was proposed. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to evaluate the performance of the method. The utility of the approach was illustrated through an analysis of a body weight growth data set in an F(2) family derived from LG/J and SM/J mouse stains. The proposed Bayesian mapping method provides an efficient and computationally feasible framework for genome-wide multiple iQTL inference with complex developmental traits.     

The distribution of genomic distance between random genomes.

We study the probability distribution of genomic distance d under the hypothesis of random gene order. We translate the random order assumption into a stochastic method for constructing the alternating color cycles in the decomposition of the bicolored breakpoint graph. For two random genomes of length n, we show that the expectation of n - d is O((1/2) log n).     

Phylogeny estimation: traditional and Bayesian approaches

The construction of evolutionary trees is now a standard part of exploratory sequence analysis. Bayesian methods for estimating trees have recently been proposed as a faster method of incorporating the power of complex statistical models into the process. Researchers who rely on comparative analyses need to understand the theoretical and practical motivations that underlie these new techniques, and how they differ from previous methods. The ability of the new approaches to address previously intractable questions is making phylogenetic analysis an essential tool in an increasing number of areas of genetic research.