Three stage semelparous Leslie models

Nonlinear Leslie matrix models have a long history of use for modeling the dynamics of semelparous species. Semelparous models, as do nonlinear matrix models in general, undergo a transcritical equilibrium bifurcation at inherent net reproductive number R ₀ = 1 where the extinction equilibrium loses stability. Semelparous models however do not fall under the purview of the general theory because this bifurcation is of higher co-dimension. This mathematical fact has biological implications that relate to a dichotomy of dynamic possibilities, namely, an equilibration with over lapping age classes as opposed to an oscillation in which age classes are periodically missing. The latter possibility makes these models of particular interest, for example, in application to the well known outbreaks of periodical insects. While the nature of the bifurcation at R ₀ = 1 is known for two-dimensional semelparous Leslie models, only limited results are available for higher dimensional models. In this paper I give a thorough accounting of the bifurcation at R ₀ = 1 in the three-dimensional case, under some monotonicity assumptions on the nonlinearities. In addition to the bifurcation of positive equilibria, there occurs a bifurcation of invariant loops that lie on the boundary of the positive cone. I describe the geometry of these loops, classify them into three distinct types, and show that they consist of either one or two three-cycles and heteroclinic orbits connecting (the phases of) these cycles. Furthermore, I determine stability and instability properties of these loops, in terms of model parameters, as well as those of the positive equilibria. The analysis also provides the global dynamics on the boundary of the cone. The stability and instability conditions are expressed in terms of certain measures of the strength and the symmetry/asymmetry of the inter-age class competitive interactions. Roughly speaking, strong inter-age class competitive interactions promote oscillations (not necessarily periodic) with separated life-cycle stages, while weak interactions promote stable equilibration with overlapping life-cycle stages. Methods used include the theory of planar monotone maps, average Lyapunov functions, and bifurcation theory techniques.      

Numerical bifurcation analysis of distance-dependent on-center off-surround shunting neural networks

 On-center off-surround shunting neural networks are often applied as models for content-addressable memory (CAM), the equilibria being the stored memories. One important demand of biological plausible CAMs is that they function under a broad range of parameters, since several parameters vary due to postnatal maturation or learning. Ellias, Cohen and Grossberg have put much effort into showing the stability properties of several configurations of on-center off-surround shunting neural networks. In this article we present numerical bifurcation analysis of distance-dependent on-center off-surround shunting neural networks with fixed external input. We varied four parameters that may be subject to postnatal maturation: the range of both excitatory and inhibitory connections and the strength of both inhibitory and excitatory connections. These analyses show that fold bifurcations occur in the equilibrium behavior of the network by variation of all four parameters. The most important result is that the number of activation peaks in the equilibrium behavior varies from one to many if the range of inhibitory connections is decreased. Moreover, under a broad range of the parameters the stability of the network is maintained. The examined network is implemented in an ART network, Exact ART, where it functions as the classification layer F2. The stability of the ART network with the F2-field in different dynamic regimes is maintained and the behavior is functional in Exact ART. Through a bifurcation the learning behavior of Exact ART may even change from forming local representations to forming distributed representations. Received: 23 January 1996 / Accepted in revised form: 1 July 1996     

The subcritical collapse of predator populations in discrete-time predator-prey models.

Many discrete-time predator-prey models possess three equilibria, corresponding to (1) extinction of both species, (2) extinction of the predator and survival of the prey at its carrying capacity, or (3) coexistence of both species. For a variety of such models, the equilibrium corresponding to coexistence may lose stability via a Hopf bifurcation, in which case trajectories approach an invariant circle. Alternatively, the equilibrium may undergo a subcritical flip bifurcation with a concomitant crash in the predator's population. We review a technique for distinguishing between subcritical and supercritical flip bifurcations and provide examples of predator-prey systems with a subcritical flip bifurcation.     

Quasi-equilibrium reduction in a general class of stoichiometric producer–consumer models

This article compares a general closed nutrient, stoichiometric producer–consumer model to a two-dimensional ‘quasi-equilibrium’ approximation. We demonstrate that the quasi-equilibrium system can be rigorously analysed, resulting in nullcline-based criteria for the local stability of system equilibria and for the non-existence of periodic orbits. These results are applied to a study of the dependence of the reduced system on nutrient and energy enrichment. When energy and nutrient enrichment are considered together, the associated bifurcation structures of the two models are seen to share the same essential qualitative characteristics. However, numerical simulations of the three-dimensional parent model show highly complex domains of the persistence and extinction that by Poincare–Bendixson theory are not possible for the two-dimensional reduction. This complexity demonstrates a major difference between the two models, and suggests potential challenges in the use of either model for predicting the long-term behaviour of real-world systems at specific nutrient and energy levels.     

Quasi-equilibrium reduction in a general class of stoichiometric producer-consumer models

This article compares a general closed nutrient, stoichiometric producer-consumer model to a two-dimensional 'quasi-equilibrium' approximation. We demonstrate that the quasi-equilibrium system can be rigorously analysed, resulting in nullcline-based criteria for the local stability of system equilibria and for the non-existence of periodic orbits. These results are applied to a study of the dependence of the reduced system on nutrient and energy enrichment. When energy and nutrient enrichment are considered together, the associated bifurcation structures of the two models are seen to share the same essential qualitative characteristics. However, numerical simulations of the three-dimensional parent model show highly complex domains of the persistence and extinction that by Poincare-Bendixson theory are not possible for the two-dimensional reduction. This complexity demonstrates a major difference between the two models, and suggests potential challenges in the use of either model for predicting the long-term behaviour of real-world systems at specific nutrient and energy levels.     

Equilibrium analysis and phase synchronization of two coupled HR neurons with gap junction

The properties of equilibria and phase synchronization involving burst synchronization and spike synchronization of two electrically coupled HR neurons are studied in this paper. The findings reveal that in the non-delayed system the existence of equilibria can be turned into intersection of two odd functions, and two types of equilibria with symmetry and non-symmetry can be found. With the stability and bifurcation analysis, the bifurcations of equilibria are investigated. For the delayed system, the equilibria remain unchanged. However, the Hopf bifurcation point is drastically affected by time delay. For the phase synchronization, we focus on the synchronization transition from burst synchronization to spike synchronization in the non-delayed system and the effect of coupling strength and time delay on spike synchronization in delayed system. In addition, corresponding firing rhythms and spike synchronized regions are obtained in the two parameters plane. The results allow us to better understand the properties of equilibria, multi-time-scale properties of synchronization and temporal encoding scheme in neuronal systems.     

Bifurcation analysis of continuous biochemical reactor models

The validity of a biochemical reactor model often is evaluated by comparing transient responses to experimental data. Dynamic simulation can be a rather inefficient and ineffective tool for analyzing bioreactor models that exhibit complex nonlinear behavior. Bifurcation analysis is a powerful tool for obtaining a more efficient and complete characterization of the model behavior. To illustrate the power of bifurcation analysis, the steady-state and transient behavior of three continuous bioreactor models consisting of a small number of ordinary differential equations are investigated. Several important features, as well as potential limitations, that are difficult to ascertain via dynamic simulation are disclosed through the bifurcation analysis. The results motivate the use of dynamic simulation and bifurcation analysis as complementary tools for analyzing the nonlinear behavior of bioreactor models.     

Maintenance of multilocus variability under strong stabilizing selection

We present exact conditions for stability of monomorphic equilibria in a general multilocus multiallele system and of specific polymorphic equilibria in general one- and two-locus multiallele systems. We show how these exact results on one- and two-locus systems can be used in approximate analysis of polymorphic equilibria in multilocus systems under selection strong relative to recombination. We determine conditions for existence and stability of polymorphic equilibria in specific models of quadratic stabilizing selection on additive polygenic traits.     

Substrate degradation by a mutualistic association of two species in the Chemostat

We discuss a system of ordinary differential equations that can be used to model the interspecies hydrogen transfer common in anaerobic degradation of organic matter. The mutualistic character of the interaction is not modeled explicitly but emerges as a consequence of the kinetics of nutrient uptake. Using monotonicity assumptions on the reaction terms, we characterise the equilibria and their stability and demonstrate two-parameter bifurcation of periodic solutions near singularities of the Bogdanov-Takens type. We have persistence and extinction results in a wide range of parameter values. Finally, we give some conditions for equivalence and non-equivalence to a cooperative system and compare to related models.     

Feedback identification of continuous microbial growth systems

The fundamental problem of dynamic modeling of continuous culture systems for process control and optimization is addressed. Forcing a system to bifurcation via feedback control is a very promising method for model discrimination and identification. Dynamic information is obtained by using this technique, the dynamic behavior of the chemostat as predicted by unstructured models, the model with delay, and a structured model has been analyzed. The method exposes significant differences in the nonlinear dynamic structure of the various models and can be implemented to discriminate between various possible models for a continuous culture system.     

An Efficient, Nonlinear Stability Analysis for Detecting Pattern Formation in Reaction Diffusion Systems

Reaction diffusion systems are often used to study pattern formation in biological systems. However, most methods for understanding their behavior are challenging and can rarely be applied to complex systems common in biological applications. I present a relatively simple and efficient, nonlinear stability technique that greatly aids such analysis when rates of diffusion are substantially different. This technique reduces a system of reaction diffusion equations to a system of ordinary differential equations tracking the evolution of a large amplitude, spatially localized perturbation of a homogeneous steady state. Stability properties of this system, determined using standard bifurcation techniques and software, describe both linear and nonlinear patterning regimes of the reaction diffusion system. I describe the class of systems this method can be applied to and demonstrate its application. Analysis of Schnakenberg and substrate inhibition models is performed to demonstrate the methods capabilities in simplified settings and show that even these simple models have nonlinear patterning regimes not previously detected. The real power of this technique, however, is its simplicity and applicability to larger complex systems where other nonlinear methods become intractable. This is demonstrated through analysis of a chemotaxis regulatory network comprised of interacting proteins and phospholipids. In each case, predictions of this method are verified against results of numerical simulation, linear stability, asymptotic, and/or full PDE bifurcation analyses.     

Multiparametric bifurcations of an epidemiological model with strong Allee effect

In this paper we completely study bifurcations of an epidemic model with five parameters introduced by Hilker et al. (Am Nat 173:72–88, 2009), which describes the joint interplay of a strong Allee effect and infectious diseases in a single population. Existence of multiple positive equilibria and all kinds of bifurcation are examined as well as related dynamical behavior. It is shown that the model undergoes a series of bifurcations such as saddle-node bifurcation, pitchfork bifurcation, Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation, degenerate Hopf bifurcation of codimension two and degenerate elliptic type Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension three. Respective bifurcation surfaces in five-dimensional parameter spaces and related dynamical behavior are obtained. These theoretical conclusions confirm their numerical simulations and conjectures by Hilker et al., and reveal some new bifurcation phenomena which are not observed in Hilker et al. (Am Nat 173:72–88, 2009). The rich and complicated dynamics exhibit that the model is very sensitive to parameter perturbations, which has important implications for disease control of endangered species.     

Saltatory transitions are a naturally occurring property of evolving systems

On the basis of paleological evidence, it has been suggested that biological evolution need not necessarily be characterized by gradual change. Rather, evolutionary history may display saltatory periods of rapid speciation alternating with periods of relative quiescence, the whole dynamic being called punctuated equilibria. The empirical evidence that has been presented in support of this hypothesis has been the object of a vigorous dispute. Mathematical investigations of complex models of biological evolution that contain random elements have demonstrated that these systems can display saltatory behavior. In this paper we address a more abstract question: can saltations occur in the evolution of very simple, deterministic mathematical systems that function in a constant environment? The answer appears to be yes. Saltations appear as a natural dynamical behavior in the evolution of simplistic information processing networks. We stress that these networks do not constitute a model of biological evolution. However, the appearance of saltations in such simple systems suggests that their appearance in a process as complex as biological evolution is not surprising.     

Dynamic phenomena arising from an extended Core Group model

In order to obtain a reasonably accurate model for the spread of a particular infectious disease through a population, it may be necessary for this model to possess some degree of structural complexity. Many such models have, in recent years, been found to exhibit a phenomenon known as backward bifurcation, which generally implies the existence of two subcritical endemic equilibria. It is often possible to refine these models yet further, and we investigate here the influence such a refinement may have on the dynamic behaviour of a system in the region of the parameter space near R₀=1.We consider a natural extension to a so-called Core Group model for the spread of a sexually transmitted disease, arguing that this may in fact give rise to a more realistic model. From the deterministic viewpoint we study the possible shapes of the resulting bifurcation diagrams and the associated stability patterns. Stochastic versions of both the original and the extended models are also developed so that the probability of extinction and time to extinction may be examined, allowing us to gain further insights into the complex system dynamics near R₀=1. A number of interesting phenomena are observed, for which heuristic explanations are provided.     

On the use of the logistic equation in models of food chains

In food chain models the lowest trophic level is often assumed to grow logistically. Anomalous behaviour of the solution of the logistic equation and problems with the introduction of mortality have recently been reported. As predation on the lowest trophic level is a kind of mortality, one expects problems with these food chain models. In this paper we compare two formulations for the lowest trophic level: the logistic growth formulation and the mass balance formulation with resources modelled explicitly. We examine the effects of both models on the dynamic behaviour of a tri-trophic microbial food chain in a chemostat. For this purpose bifurcation diagrams, which give the existence and stability of the equilibria of the nonlinear dynamic system, are used. It turns out that the dynamic behaviours differ in a rather large region of the control parameter space spanned by the dilution rate and the concentration of the resources in the reservoir. We urge that mass balance equations should be used in modelling food chains in chemostats as well as in ecosystems.     

Consequences of symbiosis for food web dynamics

Basic Lotka-Volterra type models in which mutualism (a type of symbiosis where the two populations benefit both) is taken into account, may give unbounded solutions. We exclude such behaviour using explicit mass balances and study the consequences of symbiosis for the long-term dynamic behaviour of a three species system, two prey and one predator species in the chemostat. We compose a theoretical food web where a predator feeds on two prey species that have a symbiotic relationships. In addition to a species-specific resource, the two prey populations consume the products of the partner population as well. In turn, a common predator forages on these prey populations. The temporal change in the biomass and the nutrient densities in the reactor is described by ordinary differential equations (ODE). Since products are recycled, the dynamics of these abiotic materials must be taken into account as well, and they are described by odes in a similar way as the abiotic nutrients. We use numerical bifurcation analysis to assess the long-term dynamic behaviour for varying degrees of symbiosis. Attractors can be equilibria, limit cycles and chaotic attractors depending on the control parameters of the chemostat reactor. These control parameters that can be experimentally manipulated are the nutrient density of the inflow medium and the dilution rate. Bifurcation diagrams for the three species web with a facultative symbiotic association between the two prey populations, are similar to that of a bi-trophic food chain; nutrient enrichment leads to oscillatory behaviour. Predation combined with obligatory symbiotic prey-interactions has a stabilizing effect, that is, there is stable coexistence in a larger part of the parameter space than for a bi-trophic food chain. However, combined with a large growth rate of the predator, the food web can persist only in a relatively small region of the parameter space. Then, two zero-pair bifurcation points are the organizing centers. In each of these points, in addition to a tangent, transcritical and Hopf bifurcation a global heteroclinic bifurcation is emanating. This heteroclinic cycle connects two saddle equilibria where the predator is absent. Under parameter variation the period of the stable limit cycle goes to infinity and the cycle tends to the heteroclinic cycle. At this global bifurcation point this cycle breaks and the boundary of the basin of attraction disappears abruptly because the separatrix disappears together with the cycle. As a result, it becomes possible that a stable two-nutrient–two-prey population system becomes unstable by invasion of a predator and eventually the predator goes extinct together with the two prey populations, that is, the complete food web is destroyed. This is a form of over-exploitation by the predator population of the two symbiotic prey populations. When obligatory symbiotic prey-interactions are modelled with Liebigs minimum law, where growth is limited by the most limiting resource, more complicated types of bifurcations are found. This results from the fact that the Jacobian matrix changes discontinuously with respect to a varying parameter when another resource becomes most limiting.Revised version: 21 July 2003     

Stoichiometry in producer-grazer systems: Linking energy flow with element cycling

All organisms are composed of multiple chemical elements such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. While energy flow and element cycling are two fundamental and unifying principles in ecosystem theory, population models usually ignore the latter. Such models implicitly assume chemical homogeneity of all trophic levels by concentrating on a single constituent, generally an equivalent of energy. In this paper, we examine ramifications of an explicit assumption that both producer and grazer are composed of two essential elements: carbon and phosphorous. Using stoichiometric principles, we construct a two-dimensional Lotka-Volterra type model that incorporates chemical heterogeneity of the first two trophic levels of a food chain. The analysis shows that indirect competition between two populations for phosphorus can shift predator—prey interactions from a (+, −) type to an unusual (−, −) class. This leads to complex dynamics with multiple positive equilibria, where bistability and deterministic extinction of the grazer are possible. We derive simple graphical tests for the local stability of all equilibria and show that system dynamics are confined to a bounded region. Numerical simulations supported by qualitative analysis reveal that Rosenzweig’s paradox of enrichment holds only in the part of the phase plane where the grazer is energy limited; a new phenomenon, the paradox of energy enrichment, arises in the other part, where the grazer is phosphorus limited. A bifurcation diagram shows that energy enrichment of producer—grazer systems differs radically from nutrient enrichment. Hence, expressing producer—grazer interactions in stoichiometrically realistic terms reveals qualitatively new dynamical behavior.     

Effects of quarantine in six endemic models for infectious diseases

Thresholds, equilibria, and their stability are found for SIQS and SIQR epidemiology models with three forms of the incidence. For most of these models, the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable, but for the SIQR model with the quarantine-adjusted incidence, the endemic equilibrium is an unstable spiral for some parameter values and periodic solutions arise by Hopf bifurcation. The Hopf bifurcation surface and stable periodic solutions are found numerically.