Explaining Spatial Heterogeneity in Population Dynamics and Genetics from Spatial Variation in Resources for a Large Herbivore

Fine-scale spatial variation in genetic relatedness and inbreeding occur across continuous distributions of several populations of vertebrates; however, the basis of observed variation is often left untested. Here we test the hypothesis that prior observations of spatial patterns in genetics for an island population of feral horses (Sable Island, Canada) were the result of spatial variation in population dynamics, itself based in spatial heterogeneity in underlying habitat quality. In order to assess how genetic and population structuring related to habitat, we used hierarchical cluster analysis of water sources and an indicator analysis of the availability of important forage species to identify a longitudinal gradient in habitat quality along the length of Sable Island. We quantify a west-east gradient in access to fresh water and availability of two important food species to horses: sandwort, Honckenya peploides, and beach pea, Lathyrus japonicas. Accordingly, the population clusters into three groups that occupy different island segments (west, central, and east) that vary markedly in their local dynamics. Density, body condition, and survival and reproduction of adult females were highest in the west, followed by central and east areas. These results mirror a previous analysis of genetics, which showed that inbreeding levels are highest in the west (with outbreeding in the east), and that there are significant differences in fixation indices among groups of horses along the length of Sable Island. Our results suggest that inbreeding depression is not an important limiting factor to the horse population. We conclude that where habitat gradients exist, we can anticipate fine-scale heterogeneity in population dynamics and hence genetics.     

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used.     

关于一类时滞人口模型的全局吸引性

给出了保证时滞人口模型N'(t)=r(t)N(t) t≤0的每一正解N(t)趋于正平衡点 N*=1(t→∞)的一族充分条件．改进了Joseph和Yu的相关结果．     

Ecological Complexity in a Coffee Agroecosystem: Spatial Heterogeneity,Population Persistence and Biological Control

Background

Spatial heterogeneity is essential for the persistence of many inherently unstable systems such as predator-prey and parasitoid-host interactions. Since biological interactions themselves can create heterogeneity in space, the heterogeneity necessary for the persistence of an unstable system could be the result of local interactions involving elements of the unstable system itself.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we report on a predatory ladybird beetle whose natural history suggests that the beetle requires the patchy distribution of the mutualism between its prey, the green coffee scale, and the arboreal ant, Azteca instabilis. Based on known ecological interactions and the natural history of the system, we constructed a spatially-explicit model and showed that the clustered spatial pattern of ant nests facilitates the persistence of the beetle populations. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the beetle consuming the scale insects can cause the clustered distribution of the mutualistic ants in the first place.

Conclusions/Significance

From a theoretical point of view, our model represents a novel situation in which a predator indirectly causes a spatial pattern of an organism other than its prey, and in doing so facilitates its own persistence. From a practical point of view, it is noteworthy that one of the elements in the system is a persistent pest of coffee, an important world commodity. This pest, we argue, is kept within limits of control through a complex web of ecological interactions that involves the emergent spatial pattern.     

应用物元评判识别模型预测农业害虫种群动态

论述了物元评判识别模型的建模方法,并探讨了该模型在预测农业害虫种群动态方面的应用．结果表明,其历史拟合率高达 ９２．３１％,将 １９９５年作为独立样本进行试报,其预报结果与实际发生一致．并指出物元评判模型是预测农业害虫种群动态的一种优良模型．     

The Effective Production of Shikonin by Cultures with an Increased Cell Population

We have studied the efficient production of shikonin derivatives by suspension cultures of Lithospermum erythrorhizon with an increased cell population. The yield of shikonin derivatives was highest (800 mg/liter) when 2.8 g dry wt/liter of the cells was inoculated into the M-2 medium which we had developed for the production, but the excess inoculum lowered the yield.

We investigated suitable conditions for production with the increased cell population. The optimum amount of inoculum rose to 4.9 g dry wt/liter when the concentrations of all the components contained in the M-8 medium, which we developed for increasing the productivity by modification of the M-2 medium, were increased in proportion to the amount of inoculum, and consequently we could increase the yield of the shikonin derivatives from 1400 mg/liter to 1900 mg/liter. Moreover, the increased rate of oxygen supply in addition to the enrichment of the medium made it possible to produce 2300 mg/liter of the shikonin derivatives from a culture for which 5.6 g dry wt/liter of the cells was inoculated.     

Small-Scale Spatial Variation in Population Dynamics and Fishermen Response in a Coastal Marine Fishery

A major challenge for small-scale fisheries management is high spatial variability in the demography and life history characteristics of target species. Implementation of local management actions that can reduce overfishing and maximize yields requires quantifying ecological heterogeneity at small spatial scales and is therefore limited by available resources and data. Collaborative fisheries research (CFR) is an effective means to collect essential fishery information at local scales, and to develop the social, technical, and logistical framework for fisheries management innovation. We used a CFR approach with fishing partners to collect and analyze geographically precise demographic information for grass rockfish (Sebastes rastrelliger), a sedentary, nearshore species harvested in the live fish fishery on the West Coast of the USA. Data were used to estimate geographically distinct growth rates, ages, mortality, and length frequency distributions in two environmental subregions of the Santa Barbara Channel, CA, USA. Results indicated the existence of two subpopulations; one located in the relatively cold, high productivity western Channel, and another in the relatively warm, low productivity eastern Channel. We parameterized yield per recruit models, the results of which suggested nearly twice as much yield per recruit in the high productivity subregion relative to the low productivity subregion. The spatial distribution of fishing in the two environmental subregions demonstrated a similar pattern to the yield per recruit outputs with greater landings, effort, and catch per unit effort in the high productivity subregion relative to the low productivity subregion. Understanding how spatial variability in stock dynamics translates to variability in fishery yield and distribution of effort is important to developing management plans that maximize fishing opportunities and conservation benefits at local scales.     

Biophysical Model of the Spatial Heterogeneity of Myocardial Flow

The blood flow in the myocardium has significant spatial heterogeneity. The objective of this study was to develop a biophysical model based on detailed anatomical data to determine the heterogeneity of regional myocardial flow during diastole. The model predictions were compared with experimental measurements in a diastolic porcine heart in the absence of vessel tone using nonradioactive fluorescent microsphere measurements. The results from the model and experimental measurements showed good agreement. The relative flow dispersion in the arrested, vasodilated heart was found to be 44% and 48% numerically and experimentally, respectively. Furthermore, the flow dispersion was found to have fractal characteristics with fractal dimensions (D) of 1.25 and 1.27 predicted by the model and validated by the experiments, respectively. This validated three-dimensional model of normal diastolic heart will play an important role in elucidating the spatial heterogeneity of coronary blood flow, and serve as a foundation for understanding the interplay between cardiac mechanics and coronary hemodynamics.     

Dispersal, Environmental Correlation, and Spatial Synchrony in Population Dynamics

Many species exhibit widespread spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. This pattern is of great ecological interest and can be a source of concern when the species is rare or endangered. Both dispersal and spatial correlations in the environment have been implicated as possible causes of this pattern, but these two factors have rarely been studied in combination. We develop a spatially structured population model, simple enough to obtain analytic solutions for the population correlation, that incorporates both dispersal and environmental correlation. We ask whether these two synchronizing factors contribute additively to the total spatial population covariance. We find that there is always an interaction between these two factors and that this interaction is small only when one or both of the environmental correlation and the dispersal rate are small. The interaction is opposite in sign to the environmental correlation; so, in the normal case of positive environmental correlation across sites, the population synchrony will be lower than predicted by simply adding the effects of dispersal and environmental correlation. We also find that population synchrony declines as the strength of population regulation increases. These results indicate that dispersal and environmental correlation need to be considered in combination as explanations for observed patterns of population synchrony.     

Spatial Dynamics and the Evolution of Enzyme Production

We re-examine the problem of the evolution of protein synthesis or enzyme production using a stochastic cellular automaton model, where the replicators are fixed in the sites of a two-dimensional square lattice. In contrast with the classical chemical kinetics or mean-field predictions, we show that a small colony of mutant, protein-mediated (enzymatic) replicators has an appreciable probability to take over a resident population of simpler, direct-template replicators. In addition, we argue that the threshold phenomenon corresponding to the onset of invasion can be described quantitatively within the physics framework of nonequilibrium phase transitions. We study also the invasion of a resident population of enzymatic replicators by more efficient replicators of the same kind, and show that although slightly more efficient mutants cannot invade, invasion is a likely event if the productivity advantage of the mutants is large. In this sense, the establishment of a population of enzymatic replicators is not a `once-forever' evolutionary decision.     

粤北山地常绿阔叶林自然干扰后冠层结构空间异质性动态

以受2008年冰灾破坏的广东始兴车八岭山地常绿阔叶林为研究对象,采用半球面影像技术、地统计学的空间异质性和空间自相关分析方法,连续3年(2008-2010年)对林冠结构空间异质性动态进行了检测研究.结果表明:(1)从2008到2010年,林冠开度的平均值、标准差、变异系数、最大值、最大值和最小值的差值以及林冠结构的空间异质性均在逐渐减小,且后两年较为接近;(2)受灾当年冠层结构由随机因素造成,其半方差拟合函数属纯块金模型,后两年冠层结构则由结构性因素引起,其半方差拟合函数属球状模型;(3)受灾当年冠层结构不存在空间自相关;随着时间推移其空间自相关越来越强.说明冰灾后常绿阔叶林冠层结构在没有人为干预的情况下会逐渐恢复到灾前水平,体现出天然的空间分布状况.     

一个具有时滞和反馈控制的单种群模型的全局稳定性

研究一个具有时滞和反馈控制的单种群模型,通过构造适当的Lyapunov泛函,得到了保证系统的一个正平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件,并对一个实例进行了数值模拟。     

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.     

从空间分布特征认识珍稀植物领春木的种群动态

领春木(Euptelea pleiosperrnum)系第三纪孑遗植物和东亚特有种,目前已被列为国家Ⅲ级重点保护植物.基于空间定位数据以最近邻体距离统计研究了神农架地区领春木的空间分布特征,比较幼苗(DBH≤2.5cm)、幼树(2.5～7.5cm)和成树(＞7.5cm)各径级(代表各生活史阶段)形成的时间序列上的空间格局差异,进而探讨空间格局与立苗、补员、种内竞争等种群动态过程的相互关系.结果显示,在邻域尺度上,领春木的空间格局呈聚集态;幼苗(或幼树)的大小与其距离最近幼树(或成树)的远近没有相关性,幼树(或成树)周围一定距离以内出现同等大小个体的概率约等于幼苗(或幼树)出现的概率,且幼树与最近幼苗(或成树与最近幼树)的平均距离与幼树之间(或成树之间)的平均最近邻体距离没有显著差异;任意个体的大小、任意个体与相应最近邻体的大小之和与相应的最近邻体距离均为显著的正相关关系,但幼树间的最近邻体距离并不大于幼苗随机死亡产生的最近邻体距离,成树间最近邻体距离也不大于幼苗+幼树随机死亡产生的最近邻体距离.这些结果表明,领春木的聚集分布可能与种子散布、生境异质性对立苗格局的作用有关;已定植的大个体可能不限制其邻域内小个体的布局与生长,但是长期的补员过程与邻体间的相互作用不无关系;邻体间存在一定程度的竞争作用,但是竞争强度并未充分激化至发生距离依赖的死亡.     

麦蚜自然种群的空间动态

一、引言在生态学中研究种群动态有两个分支,一是追踪数量随时间变化,既所谓数量动态的问题,另一是考查种群个体在空间散布状态的变化,即所谓空间动态的问题。关于空间动态中分布型的研究过去多采用传统的块面调查,用     

生物协同学,Lorenz模型和种群动力学

由协同学方程出发,可以描述种群的大迁徙,由此又能够得到Lorenz模型,它可以描述两种种群的变化关系．当取绝热近似时,还可以导致种群动力学的不同模型．因此,生物协同学能够深刻揭示不同物种之间,既竞争又协同的复杂的非线性关系．     

云龙县灵长类种群时空动态变化

灵长类动物是世界上较濒危的动物类群之一,掌握灵长类的分布及其数量的动态变化,为保护行动的有效开展提供了必要的基础资料。通过改良的社区访问调查,首次对滇西北云龙县境内集中分布的6种灵长类动物(黑白仰鼻猴Rhinopithecus bieti、菲氏叶猴Presbytis phayrei、红面短尾猴Macaca arctoides、普通猕猴M.mulatta、熊猴M.assamensis和藏猕猴M.thibetana)从20世纪50年代至今的分布和数量进行了调查,共访查了11个乡镇240个自然村,获得968条有效信息。结果表明,云龙县灵长类基本呈斑块状、非连续性分布,其生境被澜沧江、沘江等河流和村落、交通网络分割。从20世纪50年代至今,6种灵长类共消失了62个种群约3 720只个体,种群数量下降率为60%~90%。综合分析云龙县各灵长类物种消失的时间、空间格局,发现1980—1990年代是灵长类动物种群消失最多且最快的时期,而各乡镇灵长类物种的消失斑块数与当地人口增长率呈显著正相关,人类大面积砍伐森林和捕猎导致了云龙县灵长类种群的快速消失。生境保护,尤其是对现存成熟森林的保护,将对云龙县现有灵长类动物的保护起到决定性的作用。     

具年龄结构的种群在破碎化生境中的空间分布模型

随着人类和其他生物赖以生存的环境破碎化程度的加剧,许多以前是连续分布的物种,目前不得不在破碎化生境(斑块)中求生存,所以,种群在破碎化生境(斑块)中分布问题的研究对生物保护和生境重建意义重大．本文运用Leslie矩阵和Markov链建立了一个具年龄结构的种群在破碎化生境中随时间动态变化的分布模型,讨论了种群在该生境中持续存在以及灭绝的条件．     

Antibiotic Treatment Regimes as a Driver of the Global Population Dynamics of a Major Gonorrhea Lineage

The Neisseria gonorrhoeae multilocus sequence type (ST) 1901 is among the lineages most commonly associated with treatment failure. Here, we analyze a global collection of ST-1901 genomes to shed light on the emergence and spread of alleles associated with reduced susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs).The genetic diversity of ST-1901 falls into a minor and a major clade, both of which were inferred to have originated in East Asia. The dispersal of the major clade from Asia happened in two separate waves expanding from ∼1987 and 1996, respectively. Both waves first reached North America, and from there spread to Europe and Oceania, with multiple secondary reintroductions to Asia.The ancestor of the second wave acquired the penA 34.001 allele, which significantly reduces susceptibility to ESCs. Our results suggest that the acquisition of this allele granted the second wave a fitness advantage at a time when ESCs became the key drug class used to treat gonorrhea. Following its establishment globally, the lineage has served as a reservoir for the repeated emergence of clones fully resistant to the ESC ceftriaxone, an essential drug for effective treatment of gonorrhea.We infer that the effective population sizes of both clades went into decline as treatment schemes shifted from fluoroquinolones via ESC monotherapy to dual therapy with ceftriaxone and azithromycin in Europe and the United States. Despite the inferred recent population size decline, the short evolutionary path from the penA 34.001 allele to alleles providing full ceftriaxone resistance is a cause of concern.     

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.