Long-term tree population dynamics and their implications for the conservation of the Kakamega Forest, Kenya

Long-term studies of tree population dynamics play an important role in identifying the conservation needs of tropical forest ecosystems. We examined changes in tree population structure and composition over an 18-year period (1981–1999) in three plots located at the center of the Isecheno study site in the Kakamega Forest, Kenya, a forest with a history of logging and other anthropogenic disturbance. DBH size class distribution took the shape of an inverse J curve in both 1981 and 1999 and did not differ significantly between the two study periods. Stem density increased significantly during the study with most of the increase occurring in the smallest stem size class (10–14 cm DBH). Nearly all of the most common species in 1981 remained among the most common in 1999, though the density of pioneer species decreased by 21% during the study. Our results suggest that forest in the study plots remained relatively undisturbed and in good condition over the study period. Forest in the plots also appeared still to be recovering from the selective logging of large trees that took place at Isecheno in the 1940s. In addition to our longitudinal study, we compared tree population parameters at three additional Isecheno sites spread over a distance of 1 km that have experienced different histories of disturbance: (i) a lightly human disturbed site (LHD), (ii) a heavily human disturbed site (HHD), and (iii) a cattle disturbed site (CD). While all three sites were selectively logged in the 1940s, the main signs of disturbance today are footpaths at the LHD site, tree stumps at the HHD site, and wide cattle paths at the CD site. Not surprisingly, of the disturbed sites, the LHD site was in the best condition. Trees at the HHD site exhibited extremely poor recruitment into the small size classes, a condition that can probably be attributed to human exploitation of small trees for poles. The CD site appeared to be at an earlier successional stage than the other disturbed sites with its low mean DBH, high overall stem density, and high pioneer species stem density. Browsing and trampling of vegetation by cattle may be the source of the light gaps that have led to the abundance of pioneer species at this site. We conclude that conservation measures applied to central Isecheno, including the establishment of a forest station nearby and ranger patrols, appear to have succeeded, but that the prognosis for the Kakamega Forest in general is bleak if protection efforts are not increased in other parts of the forest, where anthropogenic disturbance remains high. We also note the considerable variation in tree population structure and composition that can occur within a small area depending on the local history of disturbance.     

Essential and alternative prey in a ponerine ant: variations according to the colony life cycle

We studied the prey specialization of Plectroctena minor, a ponerine ant known to capture mostly millipedes. We compared the prey spectrum of the hunting workers from large colonies with that of the founding queens. The hunting workers captured all kinds of tested prey, but hunted mostly millipedes. Founding queens, which avoided relatively large prey, including the millipedes tested, captured mostly isopods under experimental conditions. We also verified that the presence of millipedes in the diet of the larvae of large colonies was necessary for the production of winged females and strongly enhanced the production of workers, permitting us to assert that P. minor is a predatory species specialized in the capture of millipedes. In contrast, the presence of millipedes had no impact on the production of males. We thus assert that millipedes constitute the 'essential prey' of P. minor, while other arthropod taxa are therefore 'alternative prey'.     

The effective population size of Anopheles gambiae in Kenya: implications for population structure

We estimated current and long-term effective population size (Ne) of two Anopheles gambiae (savanna cytotype) populations in Kenya. Temporal variation at nine microsatellite loci in each population sampled 7 and 9 years apart and genetic diversity in each sample were analyzed to answer the following questions. (1) Do bottlenecks occur in Kenyan populations of A. gambiae? (2) How variable are different populations with respect to their current and long-term Ne values? (3) What are the implications of these results on population structure and history? The estimates of Ne of Asembo and Jego were 6,359 and 4,258, respectively, and the lower 95% limits were 2,455 and 1,669, respectively. Thus, despite the typical observation of low density at the village level during the dry season, large populations are maintained annually. Large current Ne is consistent with previous studies showing low differentiation across the continent, especially under Wright's isolation-by-distance model. Current Ne in Asembo was 1.5-fold higher than in Jego, but this difference was not significant. Long-term Ne in Asembo (22,667) was 2.9-fold higher than that in Jego (7,855) based on the stepwise mutation model. The difference between populations was significant at both time points regardless of whether long-term Ne values were calculated based on the stepwise mutation model or the infinite-alleles model. Heterozygosity in Jego declined significantly between 1987 (59%) and 1996 (54%), whereas heterozygosity in Asembo was stable (66%-65%). Despite the relatively high and significant differentiation between Asembo and Jego (FST = 0.072-0.10, RST = 0.037- 0.038), all alleles in Jego were found in Asembo but not vice versa. All of these findings suggest that lower Ne in Jego magnifies differentiation between the two populations. The long-term Ne was biased downward, because its calculation was based on an upper bound estimate of microsatellite mutation rate. Ne values based on mtDNA and allozymes were an order of magnitude higher. Long-term Ne therefore, is probably measured in hundreds of thousands and hence does not support a recent expansion of this species from a small population.      

Colony structure of a slavemaking ant. II. Frequency of slave raids and impact on the host population

The parasite pressure exerted by the slavemaker ant Protomognathus americanus on its host species Leptothorax longispinosus was analyzed demographically and genetically. The origin of slaves found in colonies of the obligate slavemaker was examined with nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers to make inferences about the frequency and severity of slave raids. Relatedness of enslaved L. longispinosus workers in the same nest was very low, and our data suggest that, on average, each slavemaker nest raids six host colonies per season. Therefore, the influence of slavemaker species on their hosts is much stronger than simple numerical ratios suggest. We also found that slave relatedness was higher in small than in large slavemaker nests; thus, larger nests wield a much stronger influence on the host. We estimated that in the study population, on average, a host nest has a 50% chance of being attacked by a slavemaker colony per year. Free-living Leptothorax colonies in the vicinity of slavemaker nests did not represent the source of slaves working in P. americanus colonies, which suggests that raided nests either do not survive or migrate after being raided. Colony composition and intranest relatedness of free-living L. longispinosus colonies differed markedly between areas with slavemakers and those that are parasite-free. In the presence of slavemakers, host colonies were less likely to be polygynous and had fewer workers and a higher relatedness among worker brood. Host nests with slavemaker neighbors allocated more resources into sexuals, possibly caused by these shifts in nest demography. Finally, enslaved Leptothorax workers in P. americanus nests appeared to be less efficient than their counterparts in free-living colonies. Thus, slavemakers exert a much stronger impact on their hosts than had previously been suspected and represent an unique system to study parasite-host coevolution.     

Breeding system, colony and population structure in the weaver ant Oecophylla smaragdina

Weaver ants ( Oecophylla smaragdina ) are dominant ants in open forests from India, Australia, China and Southeast Asia, whose leaf nests are held together with larval silk. The species, together with its sole congener O. longinoda , has been important in research on biological control, communication, territoriality and colony integration. Over most of the range, only one queen has been found per colony, but the occurrence of several queens per nest has been reported for the Australian Northern Territory. The number of males mating with each queen is little known. Here we report on the colony structure of O. smaragdina using published and new microsatellite markers. Worker genotype arrays reflect the occurrence of habitual polygyny (more than one queen per colony) in 18 colonies from Darwin, Northern Australia, with up to five queens inferred per colony. Monogyny (one queen per colony) with occasional polygyny was inferred for 14 colonies from Queensland, Australia, and 20 colonies from Java, Indonesia. Direct genotyping of the sperm carried by 77 Queensland queens and worker genotypic arrays of established colonies yielded similar results, indicating that less than half of the queens mate only once and some mate up to five times. Worker genotype arrays indicated that queens from Java and the Northern Territory also often mate with more than one male, but less often than those from Queensland. A strong isolation-by-distance effect was found for Queensland samples. The variation uncovered means that O. smaragdina is a more versatile study system than previously supposed.     

Seed dynamics of an endemic palm in a Northwestern Mexican tropical dry forest: implications for population spatial structure

Seed dynamics are an important part of the life history of plants and may have strong implications on abundance and spatial distribution of populations. In this study, we explored how seed dynamics (removal, predation, germination) interact with micro-environmental conditions to affect the spatial structure of populations of Brahea aculeata (Arecaceae) in a tropical dry forest. B. aculeata is distributed throughout arroyo basins and attains its highest densities near to arroyos/rivers. We hypothesized that: (i) seed removal, predation and germination vary across topographic positions resulting in greater palm abundances adjacent to arroyos and (ii) seed removers/predators respond to both a seed density-dependent effect and a microclimate effect. To test this, in six arroyos basins, seeds were sown across three topographic positions (stream, mid and top of basins) with two seed abundances (1 and 10), protected and non-protected from potential predators. Predation, removal and germination were then followed. After 107 days, 100 % of the exposed seeds were removed/predated and none germinated. For seed removal, we found differences among topographic positions and seed densities with higher removal (up to 80 %) and lower predation rates for grouped seeds. Germination was only observed for protected seeds with higher germination rates in single (17 % ± 9) than in grouped seeds (4 % ± 1). The highest germination and establishment rates were adjacent to the streams; areas which had the lowest light intensity (mean ± SE = 883 ± 160 lm/ft²) and temperatures (mean ± SE = 20.1 ± 0.6 °C), and highest humidity (mean ± SE = 50.8 ± 1.8 %), especially during the rainy season. Differential seedling establishment rates across the landscape due to spatial patterns of seed predation/removal as well as micro-environmental variables appear to have implications for shaping the spatial structure of B. aculeata population at Sierra de Álamos, Mexico.     

Spatial dynamics of colony interactions in young populations of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta

Newly founded colonies of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta compete intensely by brood raids, which result in a rapid reduction of colony density. Experimental plantings of colonies and analyses of sequential maps were used to examine the importance of spatial pattern in the dynamics of young populations. Colony positions were initially clumped in naturally founded cohorts, but were regular in most mature populations. Incipient colonies planted in clumped patterns were more likely to engage in brood raids than colonies planted in regular hexagonal patterns at the same average density. However, contrary to what would be expected if local crowding increased mortality, no significant increases in spatial regularity were observed during brood raiding either in the experimentally planted populations or in a natural population of more than 1200 incipient colonies. These results show that it may be difficult to infer the degree of past or current competition by passive analysis of spatial data even when field experiments show that the probability of mortality depends on local spacing.     

An exactly solvable model of population dynamics with density-dependent migrations and the Allee effect

We consider a single-species model of population dynamics allowing for migrations and the Allee effect. Two types of migration are taken into account: one caused by environmental factors (e.g., a passive transport with the wind or water current) and the other associated with biological mechanisms. While the first type is apparently density-independent, the speed of migration in the second one can depend on the population density. Mathematically, this model consists of a non-linear partial differential equation of advection-diffusion-reaction type. Using an appropriate change of variables, we obtain an exact solution of the equation describing propagation of travelling population fronts. We show that, depending on parameter values and thus on the relative intensity of density-dependent and density-independent factors, the direction of the propagation can be different thus describing either species invasion or species retreat.     

Influence of colony associated factors on nest selection in an Indian queenless ant

1. Organisms face the difficult task of selecting an optimal new nest from the available options during relocation. Studies on honeybees and ants in their natural habitat indicate that scouts encounter multiple options that vary in their physical and biotic characteristics. 2. Architectural features, location, odour, and the presence of nest mates impact their choice of nest site selection. In order to examine the influence of diverse parameters on final nest site selection we conducted choice experiments on ants in the context of relocation. 3. After controlling for any influence by physical characteristics, we found that the presence of brood, adults, and colony odour acted as attractants with more colonies relocating into these new nests than expected by chance alone. In contrast, the presence of a reproductive female, or familiarity of location had no influence on the choice. New nests containing dead ants evoked cleaning responses from scouts, which may interfere with relocation into these nests. 4. Even although colonies consist of hundreds of adults and brood, colony integrity was maintained in 98.7% of colonies. Furthermore, we found that none of the eight studied colonies relocated when faced with minor flooding in their natural habitat, indicating that the cost of relocation is non‐trivial and that this species is capable of minor damage repairs. 5. These observations highlight the complexity of relocation in general, allow the characterisation of desirable nest attributes in this species, and highlight the need for similar exploration in other social insects.     

Effects of tick population dynamics and host densities on the persistence of tick-borne infections

The transmission and the persistence of tick-borne infections are strongly influenced by the densities and the structure of host populations. By extending previous models and analysis, in this paper we analyse how the persistence of ticks and pathogens, is affected by the dynamics of tick populations, and by their host densities. The effect of host densities on infection persistence is explored through the analysis and simulation of a series of models that include different assumptions on tick-host dynamics and consider different routes of infection transmission. Ticks are assumed to feed on two types of host species which vary in their reservoir competence. Too low densities of competent hosts (i.e., hosts where transmission can occur) do not sustain the infection cycle, while too high densities of incompetent hosts may dilute the competent hosts so much to make infection persistence impossible. A dilution effect may occur also for competent hosts as a consequence of reduced tick to host ratio; this is possible only if the regulation of tick populations is such that tick density does not increase linearly with host densities.     

Prospecting and dispersal: their eco-evolutionary dynamics and implications for population patterns

Dispersal is not a blind process, and evidence is accumulating that individual dispersal strategies are informed in most, if not all, organisms. The acquisition and use of information are traits that may evolve across space and time as a function of the balance between costs and benefits of informed dispersal. If information is available, individuals can potentially use it in making better decisions, thereby increasing their fitness. However, prospecting for and using information probably entail costs that may constrain the evolution of informed dispersal, potentially with population-level consequences. By using individual-based, spatially explicit simulations, we detected clear coevolutionary dynamics between prospecting and dispersal movement strategies that differed in sign and magnitude depending on their respective costs. More specifically, we found that informed dispersal strategies evolve when the costs of information acquisition during prospecting are low but only if there are mortality costs associated with dispersal movements. That is, selection favours informed dispersal strategies when the acquisition and use processes themselves were not too expensive. When non-informed dispersal strategies evolve, they do so jointly with the evolution of long dispersal distance because this maximizes the sampling area. In some cases, selection produces dispersal rules different from those that would be ‘optimal’ (i.e. the best possible population performance—in our context quantitatively measured as population density and patch occupancy—among all possible individual movement rules) for the population. That is, on the one hand, informed dispersal strategies led to population performance below its highest possible level. On the other hand, un- and poorly informed individuals nearly optimized population performance, both in terms of density and patch occupancy.     

Effect of resource subsidies on predator–prey population dynamics: a mathematical model

The influence of a resource subsidy on predator–prey interactions is examined using a mathematical model. The model arises from the study of a biological system involving arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carcasses (subsidy). In one version of the model, the predator, prey and subsidy all occur in the same location; in a second version, the predator moves between two patches, one containing only the prey and the other containing only the subsidy. Criteria for feasibility and stability of the different equilibrium states are studied both analytically and numerically. At small subsidy input rates, there is a minimum prey carrying capacity needed to support both predator and prey. At intermediate subsidy input rates, the predator and prey can always coexist. At high subsidy input rates, the prey cannot persist even at high carrying capacities. As predator movement increases, the dynamic stability of the predator–prey-subsidy interactions also increases.     

Climate change and cyclic predator–prey population dynamics in the high Arctic

The high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predator–prey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20-year-long time series of population densities for the five species and a dynamic model that has been previously parameterized for northeast Greenland, we analyzed the population and community level consequences of the ongoing and predicted climate change. Species' responses to climate change are complex, because in addition to the direct effects of climate change, which vary depending on species' life histories, species are also affected indirectly due to, e.g., predator–prey interactions. The lemming–predator community exemplifies these complications, yet a robust conclusion emerges from our modeling: in practically all likely scenarios of how climate change may influence the demography of the species, climate change increases the length of the lemming population cycle and decreases the maximum population densities. The latter change in particular is detrimental to the populations of the predators, which are adapted to make use of the years of the greatest prey abundance. Therefore, climate change will indirectly reduce the predators' reproductive success and population densities, and may ultimately lead to local extinction of some of the predator species. Based on these results, we conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemming–predator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic.     

Current distribution and population dynamics of the little fire ant supercolony in Cameroon

The little fire ant, Wasmannia auropunctata, is native to Central America, but has been introduced into many parts of the world. We examined the current distribution of W. auropunctata in Cameroon, tested for aggression between workers from different parts of the country, and examined the genotypes of workers, queens, and males to evaluate the mating system. We found W. auropunctata at 36 sites in three provinces (Centre, East, and South). We found W. auropunctata only in human-disturbed habitats. Its spread appears to be primarily human mediated. Aggressive behaviour was almost non-existent between workers from different sites, indicating that there is only one supercolony in Cameroon. Our genetic analysis found that only one male/female pair of clones was introduced into Cameroon, probably from Gabon. No new male clonal lineage was identified, whereas new sexually derived female clonal lineages were noted. Apart from the genotype of the founding queen, which was well distributed but generally not dominant, a new clonal queen genotype emerged and was both omnipresent and dominant at most sites. These results may be useful in the development of management strategies.     

Mass mortality in marine mammals: Its implications for population dynamics and genetics

The death of tens of thousands of common seals (Phoca vitulina) around the coast of Europe in 1988 provoked wide interest in the popular press, but it also raised questions about the importance of mass mortality in the dynamics of marine mammal populations. Here, we summarize published information on the occurrence of mass mortalities among marine mammals and review the mathematical models that have been developed to investigate the role of such disasters in population dynamics. We conclude that mass mortalities may play a more important role than density-dependent factors in the dynamics of some marine mammal populations. This, in combination with recent improvements in our understanding of the structure of these populations, has important implications for their genetics and evolution.     

Initial behavior in colony fragments of an introduced population of the invasive ant Wasmannia auropunctata

We investigated in the laboratory the initial behavior of propagules of the invasive ant Wasmannia auropunctata in Cameroon where it has been introduced. Both workers and queens at first feigned death (thanatosis), and then the workers slowly moved around the experimental arena; the queens did the same about 10seconds later. Each queen antennated selected workers that then aggregated together by grasping the hind leg of another ant with their mandibles. When encountering the queen again, the lead worker climbed up the queen's hind leg and onto her back, followed by some other individuals. The remaining workers followed the queen to a location in the experimental arena. When brood was present, the workers transferred it to this location. Orphaned workers did not aggregate, but gathered the brood together and took care of it. By permitting propagules to survive, these behaviors likely contribute to the success of W.?auropunctata as an invader.