State-space forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium time-series in Niono, Mali

Background

Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with infectious diseases. The incidence of Schistosoma sp.—which are neglected tropical diseases exposing and infecting more than 500 and 200 million individuals in 77 countries, respectively—is rising because of 1) numerous irrigation and hydro-electric projects, 2) steady shifts from nomadic to sedentary existence, and 3) ineffective control programs. Notwithstanding the colossal scope of these parasitic infections, less than 0.5% of Schistosoma sp. investigations have attempted to predict their spatial and or temporal distributions. Undoubtedly, public health programs in developing countries could benefit from parsimonious forecasting and early warning systems to enhance management of these parasitic diseases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996–06/2004) investigation, the Schistosoma haematobium time-series for the district of Niono, Mali, was fitted with general-purpose exponential smoothing methods to generate contemporaneous on-line forecasts. These methods, which are encapsulated within a state–space framework, accommodate seasonal and inter-annual time-series fluctuations. Mean absolute percentage error values were circa 25% for 1- to 5-month horizon forecasts.

Conclusions/Significance

The exponential smoothing state–space framework employed herein produced reasonably accurate forecasts for this time-series, which reflects the incidence of S. haematobium–induced terminal hematuria. It obliquely captured prior non-linear interactions between disease dynamics and exogenous covariates (e.g., climate, irrigation, and public health interventions), thus obviating the need for more complex forecasting methods in the district of Niono, Mali. Therefore, this framework could assist with managing and assessing S. haematobium transmission and intervention impact, respectively, in this district and potentially elsewhere in the Sahel.     

Serum copper concentration in adults with acute, uncomplicated Falciparum malaria infection

Serum copper concentration was measured in 80 adult patients (40 males and females each; age range: 18–40 yr) presenting with acute, uncomplicated falciparum malaria infection and a control group of 20 age-matched, healthy individuals. The mean serum copper concentration was 109.0±40.0 μg/dL in healthy individuals. Both male and female patients were found to have a significantly decreased serum copper concentration (p<0.05). In the male patients, the mean serum copper concentration decreased by 33.95%, whereas it dropped by 38.53% in their female counteraparts. A compromised enzymatic antioxidant defense capability, particularly superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, has been reported in patients with falciparum malaria infection. Because SOD activity is dependent on copper, the ineffective SOD activity can be related to the decrease in the concentration of copper during the infection. Low serum copper can also contribute to the ineffective immune response of the host to the antigenic challenge of the falciparum parasite because copper is also important for normal immune function.     

Rotavirus infection alters peripheral T-cell homeostasis in children with acute diarrhea

The patterns of gene expression and the phenotypes of lymphocytes in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from children with diarrhea caused by rotavirus and healthy children were compared by using DNA microarray, quantitative PCR, and flow cytometry. We observed increased expression of a number of genes encoding proinflammatory cytokines and interferon or interferon-stimulated proteins and demonstrated activation of some genes involved in the differentiation, maturation, activation, and survival of B lymphocytes in PBMC of patients with rotavirus infection. In contrast, we observed a consistent pattern of lower mRNA levels for an array of genes involved in the various stages of T-cell development and demonstrated a reduction in total lymphocyte populations and in the proportions of CD4 and CD8 T lymphocytes from PBMC of patients. This decreased frequency of T lymphocytes was transient, since the proportions of T lymphocytes recovered to almost normal levels in convalescent-phase PBMC from most patients. Finally, rotavirus infection induced the activation and expression of the early activation markers CD83 and CD69 on a fraction of CD19 B cells and the remaining CD4 and CD8 T lymphocytes in acute-phase PBMC of patients; the expression of CD83 continued to be elevated and was predominantly exhibited on CD4 T lymphocytes in convalescent-phase PBMC. On the basis of these findings at the molecular, phenotypic, and physiologic levels in acute-phase PBMC, we conclude that rotavirus infection induces robust proinflammatory and antiviral responses and B-cell activation but alters peripheral T-cell homeostasis in children.     

Risk factors for severe malaria in Bamako, Mali: a matched case-control study

The aim of this case-control study was to identify epidemiological risk factors for severe malaria among children living in Bamako, a malaria-endemic area. For this, 260 healthy community controls were matched to 130 patients with severe malaria. Conditional multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that all examined independent factors associated with severe malaria are directly related to characteristics of the child's mother, with the exception of the child's own yellow fever vaccination history (odds ratio (OR): 1.93, 95% confidence intervals (CI(95%)) [1.10-3.37]). The following characteristics were all associated with a decreased risk of severe malaria in the child: maternal education (OR: 0.52, CI(95%) [0.31-0.86]), the mother's adequate knowledge about malaria (OR: 0.46, 95% CI(95%) [0.25-0.86]), her use of mosquito bed nets (OR: 0.53, CI(95%) [0.30-0.92]) and breast-feeding for at least 2 years (OR: 0.57, CI(95%) [0.33-0.94]). Conversely, chronic maternal disease (OR: ?3.16, CI(95%) [1.31-7.61]) was associated with an increased risk of severe malaria. These findings strongly support the hypothesis that maternal factors are central to the development of severe malaria in children. Programmes aiming to improve both maternal health and maternal education may reduce the incidence of severe malaria in children and should therefore be advocated in Bamako and in areas with similar epidemiological patterns for malaria.     

Gene flow among populations of the malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, in Mali, West Africa

The population structure of the Anopheles gambiae complex is unusual, with several sibling species often occupying a single area and, in one of these species, An. gambiae sensu stricto, as many as three "chromosomal forms" occurring together. The chromosomal forms are thought to be intermediate between populations and species, distinguishable by patterns of chromosome gene arrangements. The extent of reproductive isolation among these forms has been debated. To better characterize this structure we measured effective population size, N(e), and migration rates, m, or their product by both direct and indirect means. Gene flow among villages within each chromosomal form was found to be large (N(e)m > 40), was intermediate between chromosomal forms (N(e)m approximately 3-30), and was low between species (N(e)m approximately 0.17-1.3). A recently developed means for distinguishing among certain of the forms using PCR indicated rates of gene flow consistent with those observed using the other genetic markers.     

Risk factors for severe acute lower respiratory tract infection in Bogota, 2001

Severity of acute respiratory infection is higher in developing countries, especially among the socioeconomically underprivileged. Viral pneumonias are more common, especially among children. A prospective hospital-based case control study was undertaken in Bogota between November 2000 and August 2001, aimed to identify factors related to severe low acute respiratory infection (SLARI). Cases were limited to children aged between 2 months and 5 years who filled WHO criteria for SLARI. Controls were children at the same hospital with ARI in a similar age range, but without symptoms of chest drawing. A total of 638 children (277 cases and 361 controls) were included. The most important risk factors included the following: living in borrowed houses (odds ratio (OR) = 2.7; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.06-7.07), sharing the bed (OR = 1.88, CI: 1.0-3.7), living with more than 9 people (OR = 1.82, CI: 1.0-3.51), and living with smokers (OR = 1.4, CI: 1.0-2.05). Of the 114 samples collected (from children at third day after beginning of symptoms), 98 had viruses, sincitial respiratory virus was the most frequently identified virus (41.8%), followed by influenza A virus (3.1%) and influenza B virus (1%). All positive isolates for influenza A and B were sent to the United States Center for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta, where they were classified as influenza A/PANAMA/2007/99-like and influenza B/SICHUAN/379/99-like, respectively.     

Changes in ovarian follicles following acute infection with bovine viral diarrhea virus

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) has been associated with several reproductive problems in cattle, including poor fertility, early embryonic deaths, abortion and congenital anomalies. Little is known about the cause of poor fertility in cows acutely infected with BVDV. The purpose of this study was to identify changes in ovarian function following acute infection with noncytopathic BVDV. The ovaries of 5 BVDV sero-negative and virus-negative pubertal heifers were monitored daily for 4 consecutive estrous cycles. The position and diameter of all follicles (> 5 mm) and luteal structures were recorded. Daily plasma samples were collected to measure peripheral progesterone and estradiol levels. Each heifer was infected intranasally with noncytopathic BVDV following ovulation of the second estrous cycle. The maximum diameter and growth rate of dominant anovulatory and ovulatory follicles were significantly reduced following acute BVDV infection. Similarly, the number of subordinate follicles associated with both the anovulatory and ovulatory follicle was reduced following infection. There were no significant differences in other follicle or luteal dynamic parameters or in peripheral progesterone or estradiol levels. Ovarian follicular growth was different during the first 2 estrous cycles following acute infection with BVDV when compared with the 2 estrous cycles preceding infection. These differences may be important in explaining reduced fertility in herds with acute BVDV infection.     

Antibiotics in bacterial acute respiratory tract infection in children]

The data on changes in the susceptibility of the most frequent respiratory tract pathogens i.e. Pneumococcus spp. and Haemophilus influenzae within the last 15 years and Streptococcus spp., Staphylococcus spp. and Moraxella spp. at the present time as well as recommendations based on the original and some literature data on the choice of the antibacterial drugs for the initial treatment of bacterial complications of acute respiratory tract viral infections such as otitis, sinusitis and pharyngitis are presented. The necessity of decreasing the unjustified use of antibiotics in cases of uncomplicated acute respiratory tract viral infections is indicated.     

急性下呼吸道感染患儿中RSV的分离鉴定及分析

目的对2015年兰州单中心急性下呼吸道感染患儿中呼吸道合胞病毒(respiratory syncytial virus,RSV)进行分离鉴定及分析。方法收集临床急性下呼吸道感染患儿痰分泌物226份,在HEP-2细胞中连续盲传培养3代,收获的培养物用半巢式RT-PCR进行检测,选取强阳性样品进行测序以确定其型别,并对其流行病学特征进行分析。结果 226份样品中RSV阳性样本为76份(阳性率为34%)。RSV阳性患儿中,男女性别比为3∶1;年龄分布6月龄患儿占45%,6月龄~2岁占35%,2~5岁的占20%。冬季为发病高峰。76例RSV阳性患儿中,临床诊断依次为毛细支气管炎31例(40.79%)、喘息性支气管炎21例(27.36%)、支气管肺炎20例(26.32%)和支气管哮喘4例(5.26%)。40份强阳性RSV样品经测序确定为B亚型。结论 RSV是引起婴幼儿急性下呼吸道感染的重要病原之一,2015年RSV的流行株主要为B亚型。     

2010年夏季急性细菌感染性腹泻患儿沙门菌感染分析

本文旨在了解急性细菌感染性腹泻患儿中沙门菌的感染现状及其耐药性.采集2010年7月1日~2010年9月30日复旦大学附属儿科医院门诊及住院急性细菌感染性腹泻患儿的粪便标本,进行沙门菌分离、培养及鉴定,采用Kirby-Bauer法进行药敏试验.共收集急性细菌感染性腹泻患儿粪便标本 1 045份,检出沙门菌 160株,阳性...     

B cell analysis of ethnic groups in Mali with differential susceptibility to malaria

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Several studies indicate that people of the Fulani ethnic group are less susceptible to malaria compared to those of other ethnic groups living sympatrically in Africa, including the Dogon ethnic group. Although the mechanisms of this protection remain unclear, the Fulani are known to have higher levels of Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibodies of all Ig classes as compared to the Dogon. However, the proportions of B cell subsets in the Fulani and Dogon that may account for differences in the levels of Ig have not been characterized. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, venous blood was collected from asymptomatic Fulani (n=25) and Dogon (n=25) adults in Mali during the malaria season, and from P. falciparum-naive adults in the U.S. (n=8). At the time of the blood collection, P. falciparum infection was detected by blood-smear in 16% of the Fulani and 40% of the Dogon volunteers. Thawed lymphocytes were analysed by flow cytometry to quantify B cell subsets, including immature and naive B cells; plasma cells; and classical, activated, and atypical memory B cells (MBCs). RESULTS: The overall distribution of B cell subsets was similar between Fulani and Dogon adults, although the percentage of activated MBCs was higher in the Fulani group (Fulani: 11.07% [95% CI: 9.317 - 12.82]; Dogon: 8.31% [95% CI: 6.378 - 10.23]; P=0.016). The percentage of atypical MBCs was similar between Fulani and Dogon adults (Fulani: 28.3% [95% CI: 22.73 - 34.88]; Dogon: 29.3% [95% CI: 25.06 - 33.55], but higher than U.S. adults (U.S.: 3.0% [95% CI: -0.21 - 6.164]; P<0.001). Plasmodium falciparum infection was associated with a higher percentage of plasma cells among Fulani (Fulani infected: 3.3% [95% CI: 1.788 - 4.744]; Fulani uninfected: 1.71% [95% CI: 1.33 - 2.08]; P=0.011), but not Dogon adults. CONCLUSION: These data show that the malaria-resistant Fulani have a higher percentage of activated MBCs compared to the Dogon, and that P. falciparum infection is associated with a higher percentage of plasma cells in the Fulani compared to the Dogon, findings that may account for the higher levels of P. falciparum antibodies in the Fulani.     

Hypoxaemia in young Kenyan children with acute lower respiratory infection.

OBJECTIVES--To determine the prevalence, clinical correlates, and outcome of hypoxaemia in acutely ill children with respiratory symptoms. DESIGN--Prospective observational study. SETTING--Paediatric casualty ward of a referral hospital at 1670 m altitude in Nairobi, Kenya. SUBJECTS--256 Infants and children under 3 years of age with symptoms of respiratory infection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Prevalence of hypoxaemia, defined as arterial oxygen saturation < 90% determined by pulse oximetry, and condition of patient on the fifth day after admission. RESULTS--Over half (151) of the children were hypoxaemic, and short term mortality was 4.3 times greater in these children. In contrast, the relative risk of a fatal outcome in children with radiographic pneumonia was only 1.03 times that of children without radiographic pneumonia. A logistic regression model showed that in 3-11 month old infants a respiratory rate > or = 70/min, grunting, and retractions were the best independent clinical signs for the prediction of hypoxaemia. In the older children a respiratory rate of > or = 60/min was the single best clinical predictor of hypoxaemia. The presence of hypoxaemia predicted radiographic pneumonia with a sensitivity of 71% and specificity of 55%. CONCLUSIONS--Over half the children presenting to this referral hospital with respiratory symptoms were hypoxaemic. A group of specific clinical signs seem useful in predicting hypoxaemia. The clear association of hypoxaemia with mortality suggests that the detection and effective treatment of hypoxaemia are important aspects of the clinical management of acute infections of the lower respiratory tract in children in hospital in developing regions.     

Allicin enhances host pro-inflammatory immune responses and protects against acute murine malaria infection

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: During malaria infection, multiple pro-inflammatory mediators including IFN-gamma, TNF and nitric oxide (NO) play a crucial role in the protection against the parasites. Modulation of host immunity is an important strategy to improve the outcome of malaria infection. Allicin is the major biologically active component of garlic and shows anti-microbial activity. Allicin is also active against protozoan parasites including Plasmodium, which is thought to be mediated by inhibiting cysteine proteases. In this study, the immunomodulatory activities of allicin were assessed during acute malaria infection using a rodent malaria model Plasmodium yoelii 17XL. METHODS: To determine whether allicin modulates host immune responses against malaria infection, mice were treated with allicin after infection with P. yoelii 17XL. Mortality was checked daily and parasitaemia was determined every other day. Pro-inflammatory mediators and IL-4 were quantified by ELISA, while NO level was determined by the Griess method. The populations of dendritic cells (DCs), macrophages, CD4+ T and regulatory T cells (Treg) were assessed by FACS. RESULTS: Allicin reduced parasitaemia and prolonged survival of the host in a dose-dependent manner. This effect is at least partially due to improved host immune responses. Results showed that allicin treatment enhanced the production of pro-inflammatory mediators such as IFN-gamma, TNF, IL-12 and NO. The absolute numbers of CD4+ T cells, DCs and macrophages were significantly higher in allicin-treated mice. In addition, allicin promoted the maturation of CD11c+ DCs, whereas it did not cause major changes in IL-4 and the level of anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10. CONCLUSIONS: Allicin could partially protect host against P. yoelii 17XL through enhancement of the host innate and adaptive immune responses.     

Production of alpha-, beta-, and lambda-interferons by epithelial and mononuclear cells during acute respiratory viral infection

Role of several types of cells (human broncho-epithelial cells, BEAS-2B cell line, and mononuclear cells as model of macrophages) in production of alpha-, beta- and lambda-interferons during acute respiratory viral infection was studied. Kits for detection of these interferons by quantitative PCR assay has been developed. In human broncho-epithelial cells respiratory viruses induced statistically significant expression of alpha-interferon mRNA at 8 hours after infection, beta-interferon mRNA--at 24 hours after infection, IL-29 mRNA (lambda-interferon) - at 24 hours after infection, IL-28 mRNA (lambda-interferon) - at 8 and 24 hours after infection. In BEAS-2B cell line induction of alpha-interferon mRNA expression was observed at 8 hours after infection, beta-interferon mRNA expression - at 24 hours after infection, IL-29 mRNA (lambda-interferon) expression - at 8 and 24 hours after viral challenge. Production of beta- and lambda-interferons by ELISA at 24 hours after infection has been detected. When polymorphonuclear cells were challenged, induction of alpha-, beta-, and lambda-interferons expression was observed at 8 hours after infection. Production of alpha-, beta- and lambda-interferons has been detected by ELISA at 24 hours after infection by rhinovirus 16.     

Integrated HIV testing, malaria, and diarrhea prevention campaign in Kenya: modeled health impact and cost-effectiveness

Background

Efficiently delivered interventions to reduce HIV, malaria, and diarrhea are essential to accelerating global health efforts. A 2008 community integrated prevention campaign in Western Province, Kenya, reached 47,000 individuals over 7 days, providing HIV testing and counseling, water filters, insecticide-treated bed nets, condoms, and for HIV-infected individuals cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and referral for ongoing care. We modeled the potential cost-effectiveness of a scaled-up integrated prevention campaign.

Methods

We estimated averted deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based on published data on baseline mortality and morbidity and on the protective effect of interventions, including antiretroviral therapy. We incorporate a previously estimated scaled-up campaign cost. We used published costs of medical care to estimate savings from averted illness (for all three diseases) and the added costs of initiating treatment earlier in the course of HIV disease.

Results

Per 1000 participants, projected reductions in cases of diarrhea, malaria, and HIV infection avert an estimated 16.3 deaths, 359 DALYs and $85,113 in medical care costs. Earlier care for HIV-infected persons adds an estimated 82 DALYs averted (to a total of 442), at a cost of $37,097 (reducing total averted costs to $48,015). Accounting for the estimated campaign cost of $32,000, the campaign saves an estimated $16,015 per 1000 participants. In multivariate sensitivity analyses, 83% of simulations result in net savings, and 93% in a cost per DALY averted of less than $20.

Discussion

A mass, rapidly implemented campaign for HIV testing, safe water, and malaria control appears economically attractive.     

Antigenemia, RNAemia, and innate immunity in children with acute rotavirus diarrhea

Antigenemia is commonly detected in children with acute rotavirus diarrhea, but the prevalence of viremia has not been clearly defined. We examined antigenemia in plasma and RNAemia in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of children with acute diarrhea by EIA, RT-PCR, and Southern hybridization, using primers and a probe specific to rotavirus NSP4 gene. We detected the presence of rotavirus antigen in 33.3% and almost full-length NSP4 gene in 70.8% of the acute-phase plasma and PBMC, respectively. In contrast, antigenemia and RNAemia were detected in 0% and 4.2% of the convalescent-phase plasma and PBMC, respectively, which were similar to antigenemia (0%) and RNAemia (7.7%) in healthy controls. We demonstrated an increase in the proportions of activated myeloid dendritic cells (mDC) and activated plasmacytoid DC (pDC) in acute-phase PBMC of patients when compared to those in convalescent phase of patients and in PBMC of healthy controls. The activation of mDC peaked on days 2-4 after illness onset, and the activation of acute-phase pDC appeared to correlate with levels of antigenemia. High prevalence of NSP4 gene in acute-phase PBMC indicates possible rotavirus replication in white blood cells, and extraintestinal spread and the activation of DC may have implications for the prevention of rotavirus disease in children.