Risk aversion,time preference and health production: Theory and empirical evidence from Cambodia

This paper quantifies the relationship between risk aversion and discount rates on the one hand and height and weight on the other. It studies this link in the context of poor households in Cambodia. Evidence is based on an original dataset that contains both experimental measures of risk taking and impatience along with anthropometric measurements of children and adults. The aim of the paper is to (i) explore the importance of risk and time preferences in explaining undernutrition and (ii) compare the evidence stemming from poor households to strikingly similar findings from industrialized countries. It uses an inter-generational approach to explain observed correlations in adults and children that is inspired by the height premium on labor markets. Parents can invest in the health capital of their child to increase future earnings and their consumption when old: better nutrition during infancy translates into better human capital and better wages, and ultimately better financial means to take care of elderly parents. However this investment is subject to considerable uncertainty, since parents neither perfectly foresee economic conditions when the child starts earning nor fully observe the ability to transform nutritional investments into long-term health capital. As a result, risk taking households have taller and heavier children. Conversely, impatience does not affect child health. In the case of adults, only weight and the body mass index (BMI), but not height, are positively and moderately correlated with risk taking and impatience.     

Evolution of dispersal in metapopulations with local density dependence and demographic stochasticity

In this paper, we predict the outcome of dispersal evolution in metapopulations based on the following assumptions: (i) population dynamics within patches are density-regulated by realistic growth functions; (ii) demographic stochasticity resulting from finite population sizes within patches is accounted for; and (iii) the transition of individuals between patches is explicitly modelled by a disperser pool. We show, first, that evolutionarily stable dispersal rates do not necessarily increase with rates for the local extinction of populations due to external disturbances in habitable patches. Second, we describe how demographic stochasticity affects the evolution of dispersal rates: evolutionarily stable dispersal rates remain high even when disturbance-related rates of local extinction are low, and a variety of qualitatively different responses of adapted dispersal rates to varied levels of disturbance become possible. This paper shows, for the first time, that evolution of dispersal rates may give rise to monotonically increasing or decreasing responses, as well as to intermediate maxima or minima.     

Standardization of the twinning rate

There is a great interest in comparing twinning rates. These comparisons can be performed between different time periods for a specific population, between different regions within the same country, and between different populations. However, there are several factors (maternal age, parity, urbanization, etc.) that influence the twinning rate. The most dominant one is maternal age, and because the age distribution of the mother varies, it is necessary to standardize the data to make these comparisons. If we want to compare the twinning rates in different countries, we have to face the problem that the composition of the data from different countries may differ to a great extent. The applicable method is determined by the data of the lowest quality. Often the available data do not allow the traditional (direct and/or indirect) methods of standardization. Under such circumstances other methods have to be used. Earlier, Fellman and Eriksson (1987) proposed and successfully applied a new method. In this article we discuss the standardization problem in more detail. We suggest different methods and apply them to different data on twinning from Australia, Finland, and Baden-Württemberg (West Germany). The new standardization methods give standardized twinning rates similar to the rates obtained by traditional methods. It is noted that, irrespective of standardization method, changes in maternal age alone cannot explain temporal or regional variations in the twinning rate. Other factors that may raise or lower the twinning rate are decreasing parity, sociodemographic changes with increased communication, which causes the breakup of isolates, and deteriorating physical condition of mothers as a result of increased industrialization and urbanization.     

Tolerance of understory plants subject to herbivory by roe deer

Classical foraging theory states that animals feeding in a patchy environment can maximise their long term prey capture rates by quitting food patches when they have depleted prey to a certain threshold level. Theory suggests that social foragers may be better able to do this if all individuals in a group have access to the prey capture information of all other group members. This will allow all foragers to make a more accurate estimation of the patch quality over time and hence enable them to quit patches closer to the optimal prey threshold level. We develop a model to examine the foraging efficiency of three strategies that could be used by a cohesive foraging group to initiate quitting a patch, where foragers do not use such information, and compare these with a fourth strategy in which foragers use public information of all prey capture events made by the group. We carried out simulations in six different prey environments, in which we varied the mean number of prey per patch and the variance of prey number between patches. Groups sharing public information were able to consistently quit patches close to the optimal prey threshold level, and obtained constant prey capture rates, in groups of all sizes. In contrast all groups not sharing public information quit patches progressively earlier than the optimal prey threshold value, and experienced decreasing prey capture rates, as group size increased. This is more apparent as the variance in prey number between patches increases. Thus in a patchy environment, where uncertainty is high, although public information use does not increase the foraging efficiency of groups over that of a lone forager, it certainly offers benefits over groups which do not, and particularly where group size is large.     

Discounting and the environment should current impacts be weighted differently than impacts harming future generations?

Background  In Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA), decision makers are often faced with tradeoffs between current and future impacts. One typical example is waste incineration, where immediate emissions to the air from the incineration process have to be weighted against future emissions of slag landfills. Long-term impacts are either completely taken into account or they are entirely disregarded in case of a temporal cut-off. Temporal cutoffs are a special case of discounting. Objective  In this paper, discounting is defined as valuing damages differently at different points of time using a positive or negative discount rate. Apart from temporal cut-offs, discounting has rarely been applied in LCA so far. It is the goal of this paper to discuss the concept of discounting and its applicability in the context of LCA. Methods  For this purpose, we first review the arguments for discounting and its principles in economic sciences. Discounting in economics can be motivated by pure time preference, productivity of capital, diminishing marginal utility of consumption, and uncertainties. The nominal discount rate additionally includes changes in the price level. These arguments and their justification are discussed in the context of environmental impacts harming future generations. Results and Discussion  It is concluded that discounting across generations because of pure time preference contradicts fundamental ethical values and should therefore not be applied in LCA. However, it has to be acknowledged that in practice decision makers often use positive discount rates because of pure time preference — either because they might profit from imposing environmental damage on others instead of themselves or because people in the far future are not of immediate concern to them. Discounting because of the productivity of capital assumes a relationship between monetary values and environmental impact. If such a relationship is accepted, discounting could be applied. However, future generations should be compensated for the environmental damage. It is likely that they would demand a higher compensation if the real per capita income increases. As both the compensation and the discount rate are related to economic growth, the overall discount rate might be close to zero. It is shown that the overall discount rate might even be negative considering that the required compensation could increase (even to infinite) if natural assets remain scarce, whereas the utility of consumption diminishes with increasing income. Uncertainties could justify both positive and negative discount rates. Since the relationship between uncertainties and the magnitude of damage is generally not exponential, we recommend to model changes in the magnitude of damage in scenario analysis instead of considering it in discounting (which requires an exponential function of time in the case of a constant discount rate). We investigated the influence of discounting in a case study of heavy metal emissions from slag landfills. It could be shown that even small discount rates of less than 1 % lead to a significant reduction of the impact score, whereas negative discount rates inflate the results. Conclusions and Recommendations  Discounting is only applicable when temporally differentiated data is available. In some cases, such a temporal differentiation is necessary to take sound decisions, especially when long emission periods are involved. An example is the disposal of nuclear or heavy metal-containing waste. In these cases, the results might completely depend on the discount rate. This paper helps to structure arguments and thus to support the decision about whether or not discounting should be applied in an LCA.     

Frugivory and Seed Fate in Bursera inversa (Burseraceae) at Tinigua Park,Colombia: Implications for Primate Conservation1

The large ateline primates are efficient seed dispersers in Neotropical forests and hunting is driving their populations to extinction, but we do not know whether other frugivores could substitute primates in their ecological role as seed dispersers. In this study we test this possibility using a potential keystone species (Bursera inversa) at Tinigua Park, Colombia. This plant species allows us to compare seed removal rates between emergent, isolated trees, without primate visitors and trees with connected crowns. We used traps to estimate fruit production and seed removal rates in six different trees, and fruiting trees were observed during 2 yr to quantify the number of seeds manipulated by different animal species. We carried out seed predation experiments to test if seed removal by predators was affected by distance or density effects. We found that the most productive trees attracted more visiting species and seed removal rates differed among trees, the lowest corresponding to trees without primate access. Seed removal rates from the ground by predators were not higher below parental trees than away from them, but the distribution of saplings in the forest suggests that seed dispersal is advantageous. Although it is likely that the effect of primate extinctions will vary depending on tree species traits, conserving the populations of primate seed dispersers is critical to maintain the ecological processes in this forest.     

Comparability of segmented line regression models

Segmented line regression models, which are composed of continuous linear phases, have been applied to describe changes in rate trend patterns. In this article, we propose a procedure to compare two segmented line regression functions, specifically to test (i) whether the two segmented line regression functions are identical or (ii) whether the two mean functions are parallel allowing different intercepts. A general form of the test statistic is described and then the permutation procedure is proposed to estimate the p-value of the test. The permutation test is compared to an approximate F-test in terms of the p-value estimation and the performance of the permutation test is studied via simulations. The tests are applied to compare female lung cancer mortality rates between two registry areas and also to compare female breast cancer mortality rates between two states.     

A Bayesian autoregressive three-state hidden Markov model for identifying switching monotonic regimes in microarray time course data

When modeling time course microarray data special interest may reside in identifying time frames in which gene expression levels follow a monotonic (increasing or decreasing) trend. A trajectory may change its regime because of the reaction to treatment or of a natural developmental phase, as in our motivating example about identification of genes involved in embryo development of mice with the 22q11 deletion. To this aim we propose a new flexible Bayesian autoregressive hidden Markov model based on three latent states, corresponding to stationarity, to an increasing and to a decreasing trend. In order to select a list of genes, we propose decision criteria based on the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest, taking into account the uncertainty in parameter estimates. We also compare the proposed model with two simpler models based on constrained formulations of the probability transition matrix.     

Changing time and emotions

In this paper, we consider that our experience of time (to come) depends on the emotions we feel when we imagine future pleasant or unpleasant events. A positive emotion such as relief or joy associated with a pleasant event that will happen in the future induces impatience. Impatience, in our context, implies that the experience of time up to the forthcoming event expands. A negative emotion such as grief or frustration associated with an unpleasant event that will happen in the future triggers anxiety. This will give the experience of time contraction. Time, therefore, is not exogeneously given to the individual and emotions, which link together events or situations, are a constitutive ingredient of the experience of time. Our theory can explain experimental evidence that people tend to prefer to perform painful actions earlier than pleasurable ones, contrary to the predictions yielded by the standard exponential discounting framework.     

Comparative Analysis of Protein-Protein Interactions in Cancer-Associated Genes 25

Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) have been widely studied to understand the bi-ological processes or molecular functions associated with different disease systems like cancer. While focused studies on individual cancers have generated valuable in-formation, global and comparative analysis of datasets from different cancer types has not been done. In this work, we carried out bioinformatic analysis of PPIs corresponding to differentially expressed genes from microarrays of various tumor tissues (belonging to bladder, colon, kidney and thyroid cancers) and compared their associated biological processes and molecular functions (based on Gene On-tology terms). We identified a set of processes or functions that are common to all these cancers, as well as those that are specific to only one or partial cancer types. Similarly, protein interaction networks in nucleic acid metabolism were compared to identify the common/specific clusters of proteins across different cancer types. Our results provide a basis for further experimental investigations to study protein interaction networks associated with cancer. The methodology developed in this work can also be applied to study similar disease systems.     

Decisions for Others Become Less Impulsive the Further Away They Are on the Family Tree

Background

People tend to prefer a smaller immediate reward to a larger but delayed reward. Although this discounting of future rewards is often associated with impulsivity, it is not necessarily irrational. Instead it has been suggested that it reflects the decision maker’s greater interest in the ‘me now’ than the ‘me in 10 years’, such that the concern for our future self is about the same as for someone else who is close to us.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To investigate this we used a delay-discounting task to compare discount functions for choices that people would make for themselves against decisions that they think that other people should make, e.g. to accept $500 now or $1000 next week. The psychological distance of the hypothetical beneficiaries was manipulated in terms of the genetic coefficient of relatedness ranging from zero (e.g. a stranger, or unrelated close friend), .125 (e.g. a cousin), .25 (e.g. a nephew or niece), to .5 (parent or sibling).

Conclusions/Significance

The observed discount functions were steeper (i.e. more impulsive) for choices in which the decision-maker was the beneficiary than for all other beneficiaries. Impulsiveness of decisions declined systematically with the distance of the beneficiary from the decision-maker. The data are discussed with reference to the implusivity and interpersonal empathy gaps in decision-making.     

Commodity specific rates of temporal discounting: Does metabolic function underlie differences in rates of discounting?

Discounting rates vary as a function of commodity type. Previous studies suggest five potential characteristics of the commodity that could explain these differences: type of reinforcer (primary or secondary), if the commodity is perishable, if the commodity is satiable, if the commodity can be directly consumed, and immediacy of consumption. This paper suggests that these characteristics may best be viewed as related to a more fundamental characteristic: metabolic processing. In order to explore the possibility that metabolic processing underlies changes in discount rates, the difference in discounting between food, money, music CDs, DVDs, and books are compared. Music CDs, DVDs, and books share many characteristics in common with food, including gaining value through a physiological process, but are not directly metabolized. Results are consistent with previous findings of commodity specific discount rates and show that metabolic function plays a role in determining discount rates with those commodities that are metabolized being discounted at a higher rate. These results are interpreted as evidence that the discount rate for different commodities lies along a continuum with those that serve an exchange function rather than a direct function (money) anchoring the low end and those that serve a direct metabolic function capping the high end (food, alcohol, drugs).     

Time Preferences Predict Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya

Background

Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals’ intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been examined previously.

Methods

HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants’ time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ≥90%.

Results

Overall, 44% (96/220) of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50). MEMS adherence ≥90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25).

Conclusion

High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding.     

Five statistical questions about the tree of life

Stochastic modeling of phylogenies raises five questions that have received varying levels of attention from quantitatively inclined biologists. 1) How large do we expect (from the model) the ratio of maximum historical diversity to current diversity to be? 2) From a correct phylogeny of the extant species of a clade, what can we deduce about past speciation and extinction rates? 3) What proportion of extant species are in fact descendants of still-extant ancestral species, and how does this compare with predictions of models? 4) When one moves from trees on species to trees on sets of species (whether traditional higher order taxa or clades within PhyloCode), does one expect trees to become more unbalanced as a purely logical consequence of tree structure, without signifying any real biological phenomenon? 5) How do we expect that fluctuation rates for counts of higher order taxa should compare with fluctuation rates for number of species? We present a mathematician's view based on an oversimplified modeling framework in which all these questions can be studied coherently.     

The influence of glycerol on hydrogen isotope exchange in lysozyme

Hydrogen isotope exchange rates for lysozyme in glycerol cosolvent mixtures [D. G. Knox and A. Rosenberg (1980) Biopolymers 19 , 1049–1068] have been analyzed as functions of solvent viscosity and glycerol activity in an attempt to determine which solvent properties influence protein internal dynamics. The effect of glycerol on the fast- and slow-exchanging protons is different. Slow-exchanging protons [H(t) < 20] are slowed by ever-increasing amounts as H(t) decreases. However, comparison with data for the effect of glycerol on the thermal unfolding of lysozyme [K. Gekko (1982) J. Biochem. 19 , 1197–1204] indicates that the large decrease in exchange rates for the slow protons is not consistent with a local unfolding mechanism of exchange. These effects are also too large to be easily rationalized in terms of solvent viscosity. Instead, we suggest that the large effect of glycerol on exchange of the slow protons is due to a “compression” of the protein, as a result of thermodynamically unfavorable interactions of glycerol with the protein surface. This reduces the protein void volume, which in turn decreases the probability of conformational transitions required for exchange of the slowest protons. Present data do not allow a distinction to be made between thermodynamic (glycerol activity) and dynamic (solvent viscosity) influences on exchange rates for the fast-exchanging protons, although the effect of glycerol on these protons is also probably too large to be consistent with a local unfolding mechanism. In this case, glycerol decreases the rate of catalyst diffusion within the protein matrix, either by decreasing the probabilities or amplitudes of “gating” reactions that allow passage of the catalyst from the solvent to the exchange site, or by increasing the relaxation times for these conformational rearrangements.     

Optimal harvesting of fish stocks under a time-varying discount rate

Optimal control theory has been extensively used to determine the optimal harvesting policy for renewable resources such as fish stocks. In such optimisations, it is common to maximise the discounted utility of harvesting over time, employing a constant time discount rate. However, evidence from human and animal behaviour suggests that we have evolved to employ discount rates which fall over time, often referred to as “hyperbolic discounting”. This increases the weight on benefits in the distant future, which may appear to provide greater protection of resources for future generations, but also creates challenges of time-inconsistent plans. This paper examines harvesting plans when the discount rate declines over time. With a declining discount rate, the planner reduces stock levels in the early stages (when the discount rate is high) and intends to compensate by allowing the stock level to recover later (when the discount rate will be lower). Such a plan may be feasible and optimal, provided that the planner remains committed throughout. However, in practice there is a danger that such plans will be re-optimized and adjusted in the future. It is shown that repeatedly restarting the optimization can drive the stock level down to the point where the optimal policy is to harvest the stock to extinction. In short, a key contribution of this paper is to identify the surprising severity of the consequences flowing from incorporating a rather trivial, and widely prevalent, “non-rational” aspect of human behaviour into renewable resource management models. These ideas are related to the collapse of the Peruvian anchovy fishery in the 1970's.     

A toolbox for class I HDACs reveals isoform specific roles in gene regulation and protein acetylation

The class I histone deacetylases are essential regulators of cell fate decisions in health and disease. While pan- and class-specific HDAC inhibitors are available, these drugs do not allow a comprehensive understanding of individual HDAC function, or the therapeutic potential of isoform-specific targeting. To systematically compare the impact of individual catalytic functions of HDAC1, HDAC2 and HDAC3, we generated human HAP1 cell lines expressing catalytically inactive HDAC enzymes. Using this genetic toolbox we compare the effect of individual HDAC inhibition with the effects of class I specific inhibitors on cell viability, protein acetylation and gene expression. Individual inactivation of HDAC1 or HDAC2 has only mild effects on cell viability, while HDAC3 inactivation or loss results in DNA damage and apoptosis. Inactivation of HDAC1/HDAC2 led to increased acetylation of components of the COREST co-repressor complex, reduced deacetylase activity associated with this complex and derepression of neuronal genes. HDAC3 controls the acetylation of nuclear hormone receptor associated proteins and the expression of nuclear hormone receptor regulated genes. Acetylation of specific histone acetyltransferases and HDACs is sensitive to inactivation of HDAC1/HDAC2. Over a wide range of assays, we determined that in particular HDAC1 or HDAC2 catalytic inactivation mimics class I specific HDAC inhibitors. Importantly, we further demonstrate that catalytic inactivation of HDAC1 or HDAC2 sensitizes cells to specific cancer drugs. In summary, our systematic study revealed isoform-specific roles of HDAC1/2/3 catalytic functions. We suggest that targeted genetic inactivation of particular isoforms effectively mimics pharmacological HDAC inhibition allowing the identification of relevant HDACs as targets for therapeutic intervention.     

The origins of monetary income inequality: Patience,human capital,and division of labor

We present an explanation about the origins of monetary income inequality when an economically self-sufficient society opens to a market economy. The chain of associations runs from patience, to the accumulation of different forms of human capital, to self-selection into different occupations, and to the division of labor, which contributes to monetary income inequality. In a self-sufficient society, patience is exogenously determined and people rely on folk knowledge as the only form of human capital. With the establishment of schools, patient and impatient people sort themselves out by the type of human capital they begin to accumulate. Impatient people do not acquire folk knowledge because return to schooling takes many years to bear fruit. Schooling opens opportunities in occupations outside the village, whereas folk knowledge enhances employment opportunities that draw on farming or foraging. Self-selection into different occupations with different earnings potential spawns monetary income inequality. To test the explanation, we draw on data from a foraging–farming society in the Bolivian Amazon, the Tsimane'. We collected data during four consecutive quarters in 1999–2000 and a follow-up interview (2004). Data came from 151 adults (age, 16 years or more) from all households (n=48) in two villages with different levels of market exposure. During 1999–2000, impatience was associated with (a) greater folk knowledge and fewer years of schooling, (b) lower likelihood of working in wage labor, and (c) greater likelihood of working in rural subsistence occupations. People who had been patient in 1999–2000 had greater wage earnings and more modern physical assets in 2004.     

Kernel set in maize genotypes differing in nitrogen use efficiency in response to resource availability around flowering

Environmental conditions affect grain yield in maize (Zea mays L.) mainly by altering the kernel number per plant (KNP). This number is determined during a critical period of about 2 weeks around silking. The objectives of this study were to assess how the rate and timing of nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications affect biomass partitioning and KNP in two genotypes with different N use efficiency, and to compare kernel set of these genotypes under varying regimes of carbohydrate and N availability during the critical period for kernel set. In the first field experiment, plant density and the rate of N supply per plant were varied independently. In the second field experiment, N availability was controlled via the application of N fertilizer, and carbohydrate availability was controlled by shading or thinning at silking. In both experiments, low rates of N supply reduced KNP more strongly in the non-efficient genotype when compared to the efficient genotype. The genotypic differences in kernel set were neither associated with N uptake into the above-ground biomass at maturity, nor above-ground biomass at silking. In the non-efficient genotype, application of N fertilizer at silking increased KNP. This increase was not associated with an increase in plant growth but with increased partitioning of biomass towards the reproductive organs during the critical period for kernel set. The genotype which had been selected for its high N use efficiency also showed higher kernel set at high plant density and shading during flowering when compared to the non-efficient genotype. Under conditions of restricted resource availability per plant, plant and ear growth rates during the critical period of about 14 days after onset of flowering declined compared with non-limiting conditions. However, these growth rates were less reduced in the efficient genotype. Pooling treatments of different plant density and different available N, each hybrid showed linear responses of KNP to plant growth rate and to ear growth rate. Furthermore, in the efficient genotype KNP was reduced to a lesser extent in response to decreasing growth rates. We conclude that higher kernel set of the efficient genotype compared to the non-efficient genotype under stressful conditions was associated with low sensitivity of plant growth and dry matter distribution towards reproductive organs to low assimilate availability during the critical period of kernel set, and particularly with low sensitivity of kernel set to decreasing plant and ear growth rates.