The state of the leprosy epidemic in Yunnan,China 2011–2020: A spatial and spatiotemporal analysis,highlighting areas for intervention

BackgroundDespite public health efforts to reduce the leprosy burden in Yunnan, China, leprosy remains an important public health problem in some specific areas. We analyzed the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of leprosy in Yunnan, China, and provide data to guide disease prevention and control efforts.Methodology/principal findingsThe surveillance data of newly detected leprosy cases in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020 were extracted from the LEPROSY MANAGEMANT INFORMATION SYSTEM IN CHINA (LEPMIS), and spatial distribution analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatiotemporal scanning were performed with ArcGIS 10.6.1, GeoDa 1.8.8, and SaTScan 9.4.3 software, respectively. A total of 1907 newly detected leprosy cases were reported in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020. The new case detection rate (NCDR) decreased from 0.62 in 2011 to 0.25 in 2020, with an annual incidence of 0.41/100,000 population. The proportions of multibacillary (MB) cases, cases in female patients, cases causing grade 2 physical disability (G2D), and cases in pediatric patients were 67.07%, 33.93%, 17.99%, and 2.83%, respectively. The number of counties with an incidence above 1/100,000 population decreased from 30 in 2011 to 8 in 2020. The Moran’s I of leprosy in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020 ranged from 0.076 to 0.260, indicating the presence of spatial clusters. Local spatial autocorrelation (LSA) analysis showed that high-high cluster areas (hot spots) were mainly distributed in the southeastern, northern, and northwestern regions. Spatiotemporal scanning showed three clusters with high NCDRs. The probably primary clusters, occurring during January 1, 2011–December 31, 2015, covered 11 counties in the southeastern region (RR = 5.046515, LRR = 271.749664, P = 0.000).ConclusionThe number of leprosy cases in Yunnan decreased overall, although some high-NCDR regions remained. Geographic information system (GIS) analysis coupled with spatial analysis indicated regions with leprosy clusters. Continuous leprosy prevention and control strategies in Yunnan Province should be established, and interventions in high-risk regions should be prioritized and further strengthened.     

Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai,China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years

ObjectiveTo examine the secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the proportion of thyroid cancer cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis.MethodsData on thyroid cancer cases from 1973 to 2015 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression analysis. The age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed using an age-period-cohort model. The overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer cases was estimated based on the difference between observed and expected incidences using the rates of Nordic countries as reference.ResultsFrom 1973 to 2015, the number of thyroid cancer cases was 23 117, and 75% of the patients were women. The age-standardized rates were seven- to eightfold higher from 2013 to 2015 than from 1973 to 1977. Compared with relatively stable mortality, thyroid cancer incidence was dramatically increased from 2002 to 2015 in both sexes, with significant trends (men: AAPC = 21.84%, 95% CI: 18.77%-24.98%, P < .001; women: AAPC = 18.55%, 95% CI: 16.49%-20.64%, P < .001). The proportion of overdiagnosis has gradually increased over time, rising from 68% between 2003 and 2007 to more than 90% between 2013 and 2015. This increasing trend appeared to be similar between men and women.ConclusionAn increasing gap between thyroid cancer incidence and mortality was observed in Shanghai, and overdiagnosis has contributed substantially to the rise of incidence, which calls for an urgent update on the practice of thyroid examination.     

Evaluation of childhood acute leukemia incidence and underreporting in Brazil by capture–recapture methodology

Background: Population-based cancer registries (PBCR) are important in cancer epidemiology as they provide the basis for monitoring cancer incidence. Childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is said to have lower incidence in developing countries, which has implications for its pathogenesis, but there are few studies concerning the completeness of cancer registries in developing countries. This study analyzes the number of cases and incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in three different cities in Brazil and estimates underreporting cases and possible PBCR failures. Methods: We evaluated the completeness of PBCR and the incidence rates of childhood ALL from three different Brazilian cities using the two-source capture–recapture method. The sources used were a population-based registry and databases from a diagnosis reference laboratory in 2001 and the Chapman's formula was used to calculate the estimates. Results: The estimated incidence was 5.76, 6.32 and 5.48 per 100,000 inhabitants for Salvador, Recife and Belo Horizonte, respectively. The estimated completeness of childhood ALL in PBCRs was 15.5%, 35.4% and 29.2%, respectively, for Salvador, Recife and Belo Horizonte. Conclusions: There was a high estimated underreporting of childhood leukemia cases in some Brazilian cities. The relationship between information systems and the capture–recapture method application improved epidemiological estimates. Childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia incidence rates are similar to those of developed countries.     

Revised estimates of leprosy disability weights for assessing the global burden of disease: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BackgroundLeprosy is a chronic bacterial infection caused by Mycobacterium leprae, which may lead to physical disability, stigma, and discrimination. The chronicity of the disease and disabilities are the prime contributors to the disease burden of leprosy. The current figures of the disease burden in the 2017 global burden of disease study, however, are considered to be under-estimated. In this study, we aimed to systematically review the literature and perform individual patient data meta-analysis to estimate new disability weights for leprosy, using Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) data.Methodology/principal findingsThe search strategy included all major databases with no restriction on language, setting, study design, or year of publication. Studies on human populations that have been affected by leprosy and recorded the HRQOL with the Short form tool, were included. A consortium was formed with authors who could share the anonymous individual-level data of their study. Mean disability weight estimates, sorted by the grade of leprosy disability as defined by WHO, were estimated for individual participant data and pooled using multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. Eight out of 14 studies from the review were included in the meta-analysis due to the availability of individual-level data (667 individuals). The overall estimated disability weight for grade 2 disability was 0.26 (95%CI: 0.18–0.34). For grade 1 disability the estimated weight was 0.19 (95%CI: 0.13–0.26) and for grade 0 disability it was 0.13 (95%CI: 0.06–0.19). The revised disability weight for grade 2 leprosy disability is four times higher than the published GBD 2017 weights for leprosy and the grade 1 disability weight is nearly twenty times higher.Conclusions/significanceThe global burden of leprosy is grossly underestimated. Revision of the current disability weights and inclusion of disability caused in individuals with grade 0 leprosy disability will contribute towards a more precise estimation of the global burden of leprosy.     

Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study

BackgroundWorldwide, around 210,000 new cases of leprosy are detected annually. To end leprosy, i.e. zero new leprosy cases, preventive interventions such as contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are required. This study aims to estimate the number of people requiring PEP to reduce leprosy new case detection (NCD) at national and global level by 50% and 90%.Methodology/Principal findingsThe individual-based model SIMCOLEP was fitted to seven leprosy settings defined by NCD and MB proportion. Using data of all 110 countries with known leprosy patients in 2016, we assigned each country to one of these settings. We predicted the impact of administering PEP to about 25 contacts of leprosy patients on the annual NCD for 25 years and estimated the number of contacts requiring PEP per country for each year. The NCD trends show an increase in NCD in the first year (i.e. backlog cases) followed by a significant decrease thereafter. A reduction of 50% and 90% of new cases would be achieved in most countries in 5 and 22 years if 20.6 and 40.2 million people are treated with PEP over that period, respectively. For India, Brazil, and Indonesia together, a total of 32.9 million people requiring PEP to achieve a 90% reduction in 22 years.Conclusion/SignificanceThe leprosy problem is far greater than the 210,000 new cases reported annually. Our model estimates of the number of people requiring PEP to achieve significant reduction of new leprosy cases can be used by policymakers and program managers to develop long-term strategies to end leprosy.     

Towards the elimination of leprosy in Yunnan,China: A time-series analysis of surveillance data

BackgroundThis study reviews the progress of leprosy elimination in Yunnan, China, over the past 30 years and identifies the challenges for the next stage of the program.Methodology/Principal findingsData were collected from the Leprosy Management Information System in China (LEPMIS). The progress made in the elimination of leprosy between 1990 and 2019 was measured. We defined two time periods, time period 1 (1990–2003) and time period 2 (2004–2019), because multidrug therapy (MDT) was launched for the treatment of leprosy in 1990 and a special fund from the central government was established for leprosy in 2004. During the past 30 years, the number of newly detected leprosy patients in Yunnan has steadily declined. In total, 703 newly detected leprosy patients were reported in 1990, and 353 and 136 cases were reported at the end of 2003 and 2019, respectively. At the end of 1990, 90.7% (117/129) of counties in Yunnan Province were identified as leprosy-endemic counties (>1 case per 100,000 population). By the end of 2003 and 2019, 39.3% (46/117) and 85.5% (100/117) of the leprosy-endemic counties, respectively, had dropped below the elimination threshold. The main challenges are the remaining leprosy-endemic counties, the high rate of cases with a contact history, insufficient early detection, and leprosy cases resulting in physical disability.Conclusions/SignificanceA multifaceted strategy for leprosy elimination in Yunnan Province has been successfully implemented, and remarkable progress has been made in the elimination of leprosy in this area. The priorities for leprosy elimination in the next stage are securing sustainable support and investment from the government, establishing an effective surveillance system, ensuring prompt early detection, providing treatment with MDT, preventing transmission of M. leprae, preventing disability, providing health education, and preventing recurrence of the epidemic situation of leprosy.     

Low risk of relapse and deformity among leprosy patients who completed multi-drug therapy regimen from 2005 to 2010: A cohort study from four districts in South India

IntroductionRelapse of leprosy among patients released from treatment (RFT) is an indicator of the success of anti-leprosy treatment. Due to inadequate follow-up, relapse in leprosy patients after RFT is not systematically documented in India. Relapsed leprosy patients pose a risk in the transmission of leprosy bacilli. We determined the incidence of relapse and deformity among the patients RFT from the leprosy control programme in four districts in South India.MethodsWe conducted two follow-up surveys in 2012 and 2014 among the leprosy patients RFT between 2005 and 2010. We assessed them for any symptoms or signs of relapse, persistence and deformity. We collected slit skin samples (SSS) for smear examination. We calculated overall incidence of relapse and deformity per 1000 person-years (PY) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and cumulative risk of relapse.ResultsOverall, we identified 69 relapse events, 58 and 11, during the first and second follow-up surveys, respectively. The incidence of relapse was 5.42 per 1000 PY, which declined over the years after RFT. The cumulative risk of relapse was 2.24%. The rate of deformity among the relapsed patients was 30.9%. The overall incidence of deformity was 1.65 per 1000 person years. The duration of M. leprae detection in smears ranged between 2.38 and 7.67 years.ConclusionsLow relapse and deformity rates in leprosy RFT patients are indicative of treatment effectiveness. However, a higher proportion of detection of deformity among relapsed cases is a cause for concern. Periodic follow-up of RFT patients for up to 3 years to detect relapses early and ensure appropriate treatment will minimize the development of deformity among relapsed patients.     

Temporal and geographical variations of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in France during 1986–2015: The impact of overdiagnosis

BackgroundFrance is among the countries showing fastest growth of thyroid cancer (TC) incidence and highest incidence rates in Europe. This study aimed to clarify the temporal and geographical variations of TC in France and to quantify the impact of overdiagnosis.MethodsWe obtained TC incidence data in 1986–2015, and mortality data in 1976–2015, for eight French departments covering 8% of the national population, and calculated the age-standardised rates (ASR). We estimated the average annual percent changes (AAPC) of TC incidence, overall and by department and histological subtype. Numbers and proportions of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis were estimated by department and period, based on the comparison between the shape of the age-specific curves with that observed prior to changes in diagnostic practice.ResultsDuring 1986–2015, there were 13,557 TC cases aged 15–84 years. Large variations of TC incidence were observed across departments, with the highest ASR and the fastest increase in Isère. Papillary subtype accounted for 82.8% of the cases, and presented an AAPC of 7.0% and 7.6% in women and men, respectively. Anaplastic TC incidence decreased annually 3.0% in women and 0.8% in men. Mortality rates declined consistently for all departments. The absolute number (and proportion) of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis grew from 1074 (66%) in 1986–1995 to 3830 (72%) in 2006–2015 in women, and varied substantially across departments.ConclusionsOverdiagnosis plays an important role in the temporal and regional variations of TC incidence in France. Monitoring the time trends and regulating the regional healthcare practice are needed to reduce its impact.     

The long-term impact of the Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: A modelling study

BackgroundThe Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of single dose rifampicin (SDR) to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. As the impact of the programme is difficult to establish in the short term, we apply mathematical modelling to predict its long-term impact on the leprosy incidence.MethodologyThe individual-based model SIMCOLEP was calibrated and validated to the historic leprosy incidence data in the study areas. For each area, we assessed two scenarios: 1) continuation of existing routine activities as in 2014; and 2) routine activities combined with LPEP starting in 2015. The number of contacts per index patient screened varied from 1 to 36 between areas. Projections were made until 2040.Principal findingsIn all areas, the LPEP program increased the number of detected cases in the first year(s) of the programme as compared to the routine programme, followed by a faster reduction afterwards with increasing benefit over time. LPEP could accelerate the reduction of the leprosy incidence by up to six years as compared to the routine programme. The impact of LPEP varied by area due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient included and differences in leprosy epidemiology and routine control programme.ConclusionsThe LPEP program contributes significantly to the reduction of the leprosy incidence and could potentially accelerate the interruption of transmission. It would be advisable to include contact tracing/screening and SDR in routine leprosy programmes.     

Breast cancer trends in women younger than 40 years in Brazil

BackgroundA recent Brazilian populational database analysis showed a concerning increase in breast cancer mortality rates among patients under 40 years. We aimed to evaluate the trends in the proportion of new breast cancer cases and deaths occurring in patients younger than 40 years over the last decade in Brazil.MethodsWe evaluated all consecutive breast cancer patients treated from 2009 to 2020 in a Brazilian tertiary cancer center. The proportions of new cases and deaths in patients younger than 40 years was compared between two time periods (2015–2020 versus 2009–2014) using Chi-squared test. Linear regression was used to evaluate the trends in the proportion of new cases and deaths in young patients over the years.ResultsFrom 2009 to 2020, a total of 12,569 breast cancer patients started treatment at our institution; 1441 were younger than 40 years. From 2009 to 2014, 9.9% (95% CI 9.2–10.7%) were patients younger than 40 years compared to 12.9% (95% CI 12.1–13.8%) from 2015 to 2020. Similarly, the proportion of deaths among breast cancer patients younger than 40 years increased during the period (2009–2014: 9.6%, 95% CI 7.8–11.6%; 2015–2020: 12.4%, 95% CI 10.9–14%). The linear regression model showed a trend for an increasing proportion of new breast cancer cases occurring in patients under 40 years (P = 0.005). Proportion increased from 7.9% (95% CI 6.2–9.8%) in 2009 to 21.8% (95% CI 19.1–24.8%) in 2020. The trend for the increase in the proportion of deaths in this young population was also observed in the linear regression model (P = 0.01).ConclusionsThe proportion of new breast cancer cases and deaths among patients younger than 40 years has increased in a public Brazilian cancer center over the past decade. These results raise the concern for the need to reconsider primary and secondary prevention strategies for young women.     

Impact of a Reference Center on Leprosy Control under a Decentralized Public Health Care Policy in Brazil

ObjectiveWe evaluated the profile of patients referred to the Fiocruz Outpatient Clinic, a reference center for the diagnosis and treatment of leprosy in Rio de Janeiro, RJ, and analyzed the origins and outcomes of these referrals.MethodsThis is an observational retrospective study based on information collected from the Leprosy Laboratory database at Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. A total of 1,845 suspected leprosy cases examined at the reference center between 2010 and 2014 were included. The originating health service referrals and diagnostic outcomes were analyzed as well as the clinical and epidemiological data of patients diagnosed with leprosy.ResultOur data show that the profile of the patients treated at the Clinic has changed in recent years. There was an increase in both the proportion of patients with other skin diseases and those who had visited only one health service prior to our Clinic. Among the total 1,845 cases analyzed, the outcomes of 1,380 were linked to other diseases and, in 74% of these cases, a biopsy was not necessary to reach a diagnostic conclusion. A decrease in new leprosy case detection among our patients was also observed. Yet, among the leprosy patients, 40% had some degree of disability at diagnosis.ConclusionThe results of the present study demonstrated the importance of referral centers in support of basic health services within the decentralization strategy. But, the success of the program depends on the advent of new developmental tools to augment diagnostic accuracy for leprosy. However, it should be emphasized that for new diagnostic methods to be developed, a greater commitment on the part of the health care system regarding research is urgently needed.     

Epidemiological surveillance of birth defects compatible with thalidomide embryopathy in Brazil

The thalidomide tragedy of the 1960s resulted in thousands of children being born with severe limb reduction defects (LRD), among other malformations. In Brazil, there are still babies born with thalidomide embryopathy (TE) because of leprosy prevalence, availability of thalidomide, and deficiencies in the control of drug dispensation. Our objective was to implement a system of proactive surveillance to identify birth defects compatible with TE. Along one year, newborns with LRD were assessed in the Brazilian hospitals participating in the Latin-American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC). A phenotype of LRD called thalidomide embryopathy phenotype (TEP) was established for surveillance. Children with TEP born between the years 2000-2008 were monitored, and during the 2007-2008 period we clinically investigated in greater detail all cases with TEP (proactive period). The period from 1982 to 1999 was defined as the baseline period for the cumulative sum statistics. The frequency of TEP during the surveillance period, at 3.10/10,000 births (CI 95%: 2.50-3.70), was significantly higher than that observed in the baseline period (1.92/10,000 births; CI 95%: 1.60-2.20), and not uniformly distributed across different Brazilian regions. During the proactive surveillance (2007-2008), two cases of suspected TE were identified, although the two mothers had denied the use of the drug during pregnancy. Our results suggest that TEP has probably increased in recent years, which coincides with the period of greater thalidomide availability. Our proactive surveillance identified two newborns with suspected TE, proving to be a sensitive tool to detect TE. The high frequency of leprosy and the large use of thalidomide reinforce the need for a continuous monitoring of TEP across Brazil.     

The completeness and timeliness of cancer registration and the implications for measuring cancer burden

BackgroundPopulation based cancer registration provides a critical role in disease surveillance in terms of incidence, survival, cancer cluster investigations and prevalence trends, and therefore high levels of completeness and timeliness are required. This study estimates completeness and variation between early and late registrations in the N. Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR) and assesses the implications for reporting cancer incidence and for registry-based research.MethodsTwo main approaches assessed completeness. For the period 2010–2012, incidence reported in the first year of data publication was compared to incidence reported in subsequent years until 2015. Demographic characteristics and survival of incident cases ascertained before the first publication year were compared to those ascertained in subsequent years. The flow method approach was used to estimate completeness annually after the incident year.ResultsOverall incidence for all cancers increased between the first year of data publication and subsequent years up to 2015, irrespective of year of diagnosis. Late registrations had poorer survival. The flow method approach estimated the completeness of case ascertainment of NICR data to be 96% complete at five years for all cancers combined.ConclusionThe estimated completeness levels for the NICR are comparable to other high quality cancer registries internationally. While data timeliness has little impact on incidence estimates, delays in registration may have implications for specific research studies into incidence and survival. This means that improvements in the timeliness of reporting should be a target for all registries but not at the expense of completeness.     

Functional activity limitation of leprosy cases in an endemic area in Indonesia and recommendations for integrated participation program in society

BackgroundLeprosy continues to be a health problem in Indonesia, with incidence reaching over 10,000 new cases by 2021. Leprosy-related disabilities cause limitation of patients’ activity and participation in social activities. To date, no studies have been conducted in Indonesia which investigates disability in terms of bodily function, structure impairment, limitations in performing daily activities, and restrictions in participation in social activities in leprosy patients. This study is aimed to determine the demographic and clinical characteristics that might affect functional activity limitations of leprosy patients in endemic areas in Indonesia.Methods and findingsA cross-sectional study was conducted on 267 retrospectively-diagnosed cases of leprosy. The Screening of Activity Limitation and Safety Awareness (SALSA) scale was used to measure functional activity limitation, which comprises five domains: vision, mobility, self-care, work with hands, and dexterity. Differences among variables were evaluated using Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney test. The mean age of participants was 51.89±13.66 years, the majority of which were men (62.5%), uneducated (48.3%), and classified as type 2 in the World Health Organization (WHO) disability grading for hands and feet (66.3% and 68.2%, respectively). Assessment using the SALSA Scale showed 28.5% of subjects were without limitation, 43.8% with mild limitation, 13.5% with moderate limitation, 9.4% with severe limitation, and 4.9% with extreme limitation. Significant differences in the total SALSA Scale were found between age groups (p = 0.014), educational level (p = 0.005), occupation (p<0.001), and WHO disability grades (p<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that the most significant factor influencing the total score of SALSA was disability grading for feet (score = 0.31, p <0.001) followed by occupational status, disability grading for eyes, and age. Limitation of functional activity was significantly correlated to becoming unemployed with the odds 2.59.ConclusionPeople affected by leprosy are prone to have functional activity limitation, especially the elderly, uneducated, unemployed and those with multiple disabilities. If they can overcome their barriers in functional activities, they will have better occupational opportunities.     

Epidemiology of Leprosy in Spain: The Role of the International Migration

BackgroundAlthough incidence of leprosy in Spain has declined steadily over the years, the fivefold increase in immigration since the turn of the century—much of it from countries where leprosy is still prevalent—has been linked to an uptick in registered cases.ObjectiveTo describe the epidemiologic trends of incident leprosy cases detected in Spain among Spanish- and foreign-born population groups.MethodsObservational, retrospective study of suspected leprosy cases in Spain, as reported through the System of Compulsory Notification of Diseases from 2003 to 2013, with results disaggregated by country of birth. We collected statistical data on leprosy burden for other countries from WHO to estimate the expected number of imported cases.ResultsOf the 168 leprosy cases registered during the study period, 40 (24.6%) were in Spanish patients, while 128 (76.2%) were detected in legally resident immigrants. We identified a significantly higher number of imported leprosy cases during the 2008–2010 and 2011–2013 trienniums compared to the reference biennium 2003–2004 (OR 5.38, 95% CI 1.83–14.88 and OR 4.80, 95% CI 1.41–16.33, respectively). Most imported cases were diagnosed in Latin American immigrants (71.9%), especially Brazilians, but also Paraguayans, Bolivians and other nationalities from South and Central America. However, registered incidence was lower than expected for each year. For example, in 2003, the expected new cases in immigrants was 47.12, compared to only four cases that were actually detected (a 91% difference). Likewise, we expected to find 49.6 incident cases among immigrants in 2009, but only 15 new cases were reported (60% fewer than expected).ConclusionImported cases of leprosy are responsible for most leprosy incidence in Spain, and we cannot rule out some under-diagnosis. Clinicians should be made more aware of the potential for leprosy incidence among patients from countries where the disease is endemic.     

The Burden of Leprosy in Cameroon: Fifteen Years into the Post-elimination Era

BackgroundCameroon achieved the elimination target of leprosy in 2000, and has maintained this status ever since. However, a number of health districts in the country continue to report significant numbers of leprosy cases. The aim of this study was to assess the burden of leprosy in Cameroon from 2000 to 2014.MethodsWe obtained and analysed using the new leprosy burden concept of analysis, leprosy surveillance data collected between 2000 and 2014 from the National Leprosy Control Programme.ConclusionThe leprosy prevalence and detection rates as well as the overall leprosy burden in Cameroon have dropped significantly between 2000 and 2014. However, a good number of health districts remain high-leprosy-burdened. The National Leprosy Control Programme should focus efforts on these health districts in the next coming years in order to further reduce the burden of leprosy in the country.     

Human Rabies in China, 1960-2014: A Descriptive Epidemiological Study

BackgroundRabies in China remains a public health problem. In 2014, nearly one thousand rabies-related deaths were reported while rabies geographic distribution has expanded for the recent years. This report used surveillance data to describe the epidemiological characteristics of human rabies in China including determining high-risk areas and seasonality to support national rabies prevention and control activities.MethodsWe analyzed the incidence and distribution of human rabies cases in mainland China using notifiable surveillance data from 1960–2014, which includes a detailed analysis of the recent years from 2004 to 2014.ResultsFrom 1960 to 2014, 120,913 human rabies cases were reported in mainland China. The highest number was recorded in 1981(0.7/100,000; 7037 cases), and in 2007(0.3/100,000; 3300 cases). A clear seasonal pattern has been observed with a peak in August (11.0% of total cases), Human rabies cases were reported in all provinces with a yearly average of 2198 from 1960 to 2014 in China, while the east and south regions were more seriously affected compared with other regions. From2004 to 2014, although the number of cases decreased by 65.2% since 2004 from 2651 to 924 cases, reported areas has paradoxically expanded from 162 prefectures to 200 prefectures and from southern to the central and northern provinces of China. Farmers accounted most of the cases (65.0%); 50–59 age group accounted for the highest proportion (20.5%), and cases are predominantly males with a male-to-female ratio of 2.4:1 on average.ConclusionsDespite the overall steady decline of cases since the peak in 2007, the occurrence of cases in new areas and the spread trend were obvious in China in recent years. Further investigations and efforts are warranted in the areas have high rabies incidence to control rabies by interrupting transmission from dogs to humans and in the dog population. Furthermore, elimination of rabies should be eventually the ultimate goal for China.     

Indoor tanning and skin cancer in Canada: A meta-analysis and attributable burden estimation

BackgroundConsistent epidemiologic and experimental studies have demonstrated that UV-emitting tanning devices cause melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer. The purpose of this study was to estimate the relative risk of skin cancer associated with the use of indoor tanning devices relevant to Canada, to estimate the proportion and number of skin cancers in Canada in 2015 that were attributable to indoor tanning, and to explore differences by age and sex.MethodsSkin cancer cases attributable to the use of an indoor tanning devices were estimated using Levin’s population attributable risk (PAR) formula. Relative risks for skin cancer subtypes that were relevant to Canada were estimated through meta-analyses and prevalence of indoor tanning was estimated from the 2006 National Sun Survey. Age- and sex-specific melanoma data for 2015 were obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry, while estimated NMSC incidence data were obtained from the 2015 Canadian Cancer Statistics report.ResultsEver use of indoor tanning devices was associated with relative risks of 1.38 (95% CI 1.22–1.58) for melanoma, 1.39 (1.10–1.76) for basal cell carcinoma (BCC), and 1.49 (1.23–1.80) for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Overall, 7.0% of melanomas, 5.2% of BCCs, and 7.5% of SCCs in 2015 were attributable to ever of indoor tanning devices. PARs were higher for women and decreased with age.ConclusionIndoor tanning contributes to a considerable burden of skin cancer in Canada. Strategies aimed at reducing use should be increased and a total ban or restrictions on use and UV-intensity should be considered by health regulators.