Computerization of a population projection model based on generalized age-dependent branching processes: a connection with the Leslie matrix

The population projection model based on generalized age-dependent branching processes developed by Mode and Busby (1981) involves the solution of a large number of renewal type equations. It is shown that these equations may be solved recursively. Such a solution has two implications. One is that the projection model may be very efficiently computerized. Second, the recursive algorithm developed has striking similarities to two traditional methods of population projection used by demographers: the Leslie matrix and cohort component methods. The results presented here associate traditional projection techniques with the theory of age-dependent branching processes.     

Perspectives in stochastic models of human reproduction: A review and analysis

The purpose of this paper is to review, to analyze, and to take steps toward synthesizing, two research areas in stochastic models of population dynamics. The first of these areas consists of stochastic models of human reproduction associated with the late Mindel C. Sheps and the second area is a class of stochastic models of population growth called generalized age-dependent branching processes, a class of models that shows promise of throwing more light on the classical mathematical demography of Lotka. The substantive material of the paper is arranged in eight sections ranging in content from a comparison of classical mathematical demography with generalized age-dependent branching processes, to suggestions for restructuring models of the Sheps school in quest of greater realism. The paper ends with a section on numerical examples illustrating applications in family planning evaluation and an appendix suggesting ways in which algebraic concepts are useful in short cutting computations.     

The effective population size of some age-structured populations

It was shown in a previous paper that if generations are discrete, then the effective population size of a large population can be derived from the theory of multitype branching processes. It turns out to be proportional to the reciprocal of a term that appears in the denominator of expressions for survival probabilities when there is a supercritical positively regular branching process for which the dominant positive eigenvalue of the first moment matrix is slightly larger than 1. If there is an age-structured population with unchanging proportions among sexes and age groups, then the effective population size is shown to be also obtainable from the theory of multitype branching processes. The expression for this parameter has the same form as in the corresponding model for discrete generations, multiplied by an appropriate measure of the average length of a generation. Results are obtained for dioecious random mating populations, populations reproducing partly by selfing, and populations reproducing partly by full-sib mating.     

Cell cycle progression

In this paper we consider cell cycle models for which the transition operator for the evolution of birth mass density is a simple, linear dynamical system with a stochastic perturbation. The convolution model for a birth mass distribution is presented. Density functions of birth mass and tail probabilities in n-th generation are calculated by a saddle-point approximation method. With these probabilities, representing the probability of exceeding an acceptable mass value, we have more control over pathological growth. A computer simulation is presented for cell proliferation in the age-dependent cell cycle model. The simulation takes into account the fact that the age-dependent model with a linear growth is a simple linear dynamical system with an additive stochastic perturbation. The simulated data as well as the experimental data (generation times for mouse L) are fitted by the proposed convolution model.     

Cell population dynamics during the differentiative phase of tissue development

The dynamics of a cell population whose numbers are growing exponentially have been described well by a mathematical model based on the theory of age-dependent branching processes. Such a model, however, does not cover the period following exponential growth when cell differentiation curtails population size. This paper offers an extension to the branching process model to remedy this deficiency. The extended model is ideal for describing embryonic growth; its use is illustrated with data from embryonic retina. The model offers a better computational framework for the interpretation of a variety of data (growth curves of cell numbers, DNA histograms, thymidine labelling indices, FLM curves, BUdR-labelled mitoses curves) because age-distributions can be calculated at any stage of development, not just during exponential growth. Proportions of cells in the various phases of the cell cycle can be computed as growth slows. Such calculations show the gradual transition from a population dominated by cells which are young with respect to cell cycle age to one dominated by those which are old, and the effects such biases have on the proportions of cells in each phase.     

State-dependent life-history equations

Matrix population models provide a natural tool to analyse state-dependent life-history strategies. Reproductive value and the intrinsic rate of natural increase under a strategy, and the optimal life-history strategy can all be easily characterised using projection matrices. The resultant formulae, however, are not directly comparable with the corresponding formulae for age structured populations such as Lotka's equations and Fisher's formula for reproductive value. This is because formulae involving projection matrices lose track of what happens to an individual over its lifetime and are only concerned with expected numbers of descendants one time step in the future. In contrast the usual age-dependent formulae explicitly followed a single individual through from birth to death.In this paper I show how the state-dependent formulae can be rewritten to be directly comparable with the standard age-structured formulae. Although the formulae are intuitively obvious the decomposition into current and future reproductive success differs from that previously given and is, I suggest, a more natural definition. The derivation of appropriate equations for optimal life-histories relies on results from dynamic programming theory; and is much more general and easier than previous derivations.The value of rewriting projection matrix results in terms of the lifetime of an individual organism is illustrated by an example in which the optimal plastic response to an environment is derived.     

Time-dependent speciation and extinction from phylogenies: a least squares approach

Molecular phylogenies contribute to the study of the patterns and processes of macroevolution even though past events (fossils) are not recorded in these data. In this article, I consider the general time-dependent birth-death model to fit any model of temporal variation in speciation and extinction to phylogenies. I establish formulae to compute the expected cumulative distribution function of branching times for any model, and, building on previous published works, I derive maximum likelihood estimators. Some limitations of the likelihood approach are described, and a fitting procedure based on least squares is developed that alleviates the shortcomings of maximum likelihood in the present context. Parametric and nonparametric bootstrap procedures are developed to assess uncertainty in the parameter estimates, the latter version giving narrower confidence intervals and being faster to compute. I also present several general algorithms of tree simulation in continuous time. I illustrate the application of this approach with the analysis of simulated datasets, and two published phylogenies of primates (Catarrhinae) and lizards (Agamidae).     

A stochastic theory for rate genes in large populations with overlapping generations

In this paper there is developed a stochastic theory for rare and nonrecessive genes in large populations that may have individuals of several age groups present at one time. The analysis is based on an age-dependent branching process due to Goodman. An approximate formula for the probability of extinction of a line of mutant genes, originating in an ancestral heterozygote in age group 0, is calculated. Expressions are also given for the asymptotic rates of approach of the probabilities of extinction of lines at finite times to their limiting values. These expressions apply regardless of the age of the ancestral heterozygote or whether the line has a positive probability of surviving indefinitely. Mean frequencies at equilibrium are calculated when there is recurrent mutation to an unfavorable gene.     

The emergence and maintenance of diversity: insights from experimental bacterial populations

Mechanisms maintaining genetic and phenotypic variation in natural populations are central issues in ecology and evolution. However, the long generation times of most organisms and the complexity of natural environments have made elucidation of ecological and evolutionary mechanisms difficult. Experiments using bacterial populations propagated in controlled environments reduce ecosystem complexity to the point where understanding simple processes in isolation becomes possible. Recent studies reveal the circumstances and mechanisms that promote the emergence of stable polymorphisms.     

On the fixation process of a beneficial mutation in a variable environment

A population that adapts to gradual environmental change will typically experience temporal variation in its population size and the selection pressure. On the basis of the mathematical theory of inhomogeneous branching processes, we present a framework to describe the fixation process of a single beneficial allele under these conditions. The approach allows for arbitrary time-dependence of the selection coefficient s(t) and the population size N(t), as may result from an underlying ecological model. We derive compact analytical approximations for the fixation probability and the distribution of passage times for the beneficial allele to reach a given intermediate frequency. We apply the formalism to several biologically relevant scenarios, such as linear or cyclic changes in the selection coefficient, and logistic population growth. Comparison with computer simulations shows that the analytical results are accurate for a large parameter range, as long as selection is not very weak.     

The propagation of a cultural or biological trait by neutral genetic drift in a subdivided population

We study fixation probabilities and times as a consequence of neutral genetic drift in subdivided populations, motivated by a model of the cultural evolutionary process of language change that is described by the same mathematics as the biological process. We focus on the growth of fixation times with the number of subpopulations, and variation of fixation probabilities and times with initial distributions of mutants. A general formula for the fixation probability for arbitrary initial condition is derived by extending a duality relation between forwards- and backwards-time properties of the model from a panmictic to a subdivided population. From this we obtain new formulae(formally exact in the limit of extremely weak migration) for the mean fixation time from an arbitrary initial condition for Wright's island model, presenting two cases as examples. For more general models of population subdivision, formulae are introduced for an arbitrary number of mutants that are randomly located, and a single mutant whose position is known. These formulae contain parameters that typically have to be obtained numerically, a procedure we follow for two contrasting clustered models. These data suggest that variation of fixation time with the initial condition is slight, but depends strongly on the nature of subdivision. In particular, we demonstrate conditions under which the fixation time remains finite even in the limit of an infinite number of demes. In many cases-except this last where fixation in a finite time is seen--the time to fixation is shown to be in precise agreement with predictions from formulae for the asymptotic effective population size.     

Growth of branched actin networks against obstacles

A method for simulating the growth of branched actin networks against obstacles has been developed. The method is based on simple stochastic events, including addition or removal of monomers at filament ends, capping of filament ends, nucleation of branches from existing filaments, and detachment of branches; the network structure for several different models of the branching process has also been studied. The models differ with regard to their inclusion of effects such as preferred branch orientations, filament uncapping at the obstacle, and preferential branching at filament ends. The actin ultrastructure near the membrane in lamellipodia is reasonably well produced if preferential branching in the direction of the obstacle or barbed-end uncapping effects are included. Uncapping effects cause the structures to have a few very long filaments that are similar to those seen in pathogen-induced "actin tails." The dependence of the growth velocity, branch spacing, and network density on the rate parameters for the various processes is quite different among the branching models. An analytic theory of the growth velocity and branch spacing of the network is described. Experiments are suggested that could distinguish among some of the branching models.     

New approximations to the Malthusian parameter

Approximations to the Malthusian parameter of an age-dependent branching process are obtained in terms of the moments of the lifetime distribution, by exploiting a link with renewal theory. In several examples, the new approximations are more accurate than those currently in use, even when based on only the first two moments. The new approximations are extended to include a form of asymmetric cell division that occurs in some species of yeast. When used for inference, the new approximations are shown to have high efficiency.     

Moments and order statistics of extinction times in multitype branching processes and their relation to random selection models

We investigate the circumstances under which the moments of the order statistics of the extinction times of a set of independent branching processes exist. This extends a result of Schuster and Sigmund,Bull. math. Biol. 46, 11–17, 1984, which was found in a special random selection model. Furthermore we discussed existence of the expectation of extinction times of multitype branching processes and extend well known results for irreducible processes to the reducible case.     

Ontogenetic changes in genetic variances of age-dependent plasticity along a latitudinal gradient

The expression of phenotypic plasticity may differ among life stages of the same organism. Age-dependent plasticity can be important for adaptation to heterogeneous environments, but this has only recently been recognized. Whether age-dependent plasticity is a common outcome of local adaptation and whether populations harbor genetic variation in this respect remains largely unknown. To answer these questions, we estimated levels of additive genetic variation in age-dependent plasticity in six species of damselflies sampled from 18 populations along a latitudinal gradient spanning 3600 km. We reared full sib larvae at three temperatures and estimated genetic variances in the height and slope of thermal reaction norms of body size at three points in time during ontogeny using random regression. Our data show that most populations harbor genetic variation in growth rate (reaction norm height) in all ontogenetic stages, but only some populations and ontogenetic stages were found to harbor genetic variation in thermal plasticity (reaction norm slope). Genetic variances in reaction norm height differed among species, while genetic variances in reaction norm slope differed among populations. The slope of the ontogenetic trend in genetic variances of both reaction norm height and slope increased with latitude. We propose that differences in genetic variances reflect temporal and spatial variation in the strength and direction of natural selection on growth trajectories and age-dependent plasticity. Selection on age-dependent plasticity may depend on the interaction between temperature seasonality and time constraints associated with variation in life history traits such as generation length.     

On the Genealogy of a Rare Allele

The gene genealogy is derived for a rare allele that is descended from a mutant ancestor that arose at a fixed time in the past. Following Thompson (1976,Amer. J. Human Genet.28, 442–452), the fractional linear branching process is used as a model of the demography of a rare allele. The model does not require the total population size to be constant or the mutant class to be neutral; so long as individuals in the class are selectively equivalent, the class as a whole may have a selective advantage, or disadvantage, relative to other alleles in the population. An exact result is given for the joint probability distribution of the coalescence times among a sample of alleles descended from the mutant. A method is described for rapidly simulating these coalescence times. The relationship between the genealogical structure of a discrete generation branching process and a continuous generation birth–death process is elucidated. The theory may be applied to the problem of estimating the ages of rare nonrecurrent mutations.