A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record

The past relationship between global temperature and levels of biological diversity is of increasing concern due to anthropogenic climate warming. However, no consistent link between these variables has yet been demonstrated. We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr against estimates of low latitude sea surface temperature for the same period. We found that global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm 'greenhouse' phases, while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high. These findings are consistent for terrestrial and marine environments and are robust to a number of alternative assumptions and potential biases. Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. Our findings may have implications for extinction and biodiversity change under future climate warming.     

全球气候变化对沈阳地区春玉米生长的可能影响

利用玉米（Ｚｅａ ｍａｙｓ Ｌ．）生长生理生态学模拟模型（ＭＰＥＳＭ）,分别模拟了未来气候变化的１２种气候条件下（ＣＯ２浓度倍增,平均气温上升１．５℃、３．０℃和４．５℃,降水量增加２０％、减少２０％、减少４０％和降水量不变）,沈阳地区土壤湿度、玉米发育和玉米生长的变化,并与当前条件下进行了比较,以评价玉米生长对各气候因子变化的敏感性和全球气候变化下沈阳地区春玉米的生长趋势。研究表明：土壤湿度对降     

Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa

Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed.     

Spatial and environmental factors contributing to patterns in arboreal and terrestrial oribatid mite diversity across spatial scales

Recruitment is a crucial event in the plant life cycle that is very sensitive to interaction with established vegetation. Based on a large comparative experiment, we tested the hypothesis that the components of recruitment––emergence time and rate, seedling survival and biomass––differ in response to plant–plant interactions during recruitment. The consequences for the population are predicted with a simple demographic model assessing the response of seed production. In a common garden experiment, we recorded the recruitment of four target species in an individual-based survey protocol. A total of 7,680 seeds were sown within 20 neighbourhoods, consisting of 19 mono-specific herbaceous stands and a control treatment without vegetation. We measured transmitted light, temperature and moisture at soil surface to characterise the environmental conditions within neighbourhoods. The mean height of neighbours controlled temperature buffering and light interception and thus depicted the interaction gradient. Emergence rate and time increased with neighbour height in two of the four target species, while seedling survival and biomass significantly decreased with neighbour height in three and all four target species, respectively. We recorded a shift in seedling neighbour interactions under the tallest neighbours that largely favoured emergence but strongly depressed seedling survival and biomass. The components of recruitment were predicted to differ in their impact on later adult performance. Biomass strongly contributed to predicted seed production in three target species, and emergence had an equal or greater impact on a fourth species. These results confirm the fundamental role of plant–plant interactions in the recruitment of herbaceous species through a complex combination of habitat amelioration, which facilitates emergence and light competition, which in turn limits seedling survival and biomass.     

Forecasting the effects of global change scenarios on bioaccumulation patterns in great lakes species

Climate change will have substantial impacts on biodiversity, particularly for aquatic species. Warming temperatures and changing weather patterns will also remobilize and modify chemical partitioning. Holding millions of cubic yards of sediments contaminated with persistent legacy chemicals such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dioxins, the Laurentian Great Lakes are a laboratory for observing interactions between biological and chemical responses to climate change. They provide a wide range of habitat to a variety of species, from littoral forage fish to deep‐water predators. In this paper, we couple bioenergetic and bioaccumulation models to investigate the biological and chemical effects of climate change in the Great Lakes. We consider three species: round goby, a warm‐water invasive forage fish; mottled sculpin, a cool‐water native forage fish; and lake trout, a cold‐water native predator. Using our coupled models, we calculate the accumulation of a representative persistent chemical, PCB‐77, under four climate scenarios for Lake Erie and Lake Superior. Predator–prey (lake trout–round goby) interactions and food availability (high–low) are incorporated into our simulations. For cool‐ to cold‐water species (sculpin, lake trout) we find that warm temperatures limit growth. For warm‐water species (round goby) cold temperatures limit growth. The impact of climate warming on growth depends on the winter lows as well as the summer highs of the scenario, in combination with the species' critical upper and lower thermal limits. We find conditions for high growth and consumption rates generally lead to high bioaccumulation. However, this can be confounded by predator–prey dynamics, as mismatches in the temperature preferences of predator and prey can lead to mismatches in relative growth and uptake rates. As predator–prey dynamics are expected to undergo substantial shifts with changing climate, these relative thermal sensitivities will be key in determining the implications of climate change for bioaccumulation, particularly in top predator species.     

Shifts from competition to facilitation between a foundation tree and a pioneer shrub across spatial and temporal scales in a semiarid woodland

* Theoretical and empirical research has supported the hypothesis that plant-plant interactions change from competition to facilitation with increasing abiotic stress. However, the consistency of such changes has been questioned in arid and semiarid ecosystems. * During a drought in the semiarid south-western USA, we used observations and a field experiment to examine the interactions between juveniles of a foundation tree (Pinyon pine, Pinus edulis) and a common shrub (Apache plume, Fallugia paradoxa) in replicated areas of high and low stress. * The presence of F. paradoxa reduced P. edulis performance at low-stress sites, but had the opposite effect at high-stress sites. However, the intensity of the interactions depended on temporal variation in climate and age of P. edulis. Both above- and below-ground factors contributed to competition, while only above-ground factors contributed to facilitation. * These results support the hypothesis that interactions can change from competition to facilitation as abiotic stress increases in semiarid environments. A shift from competition to facilitation may be important for the recovery of P. edulis and other foundation species that have experienced large-scale mortality during recent droughts.     

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.     

Assessing forest growth across southwestern Oregon under a range of current and future global change scenarios using a process model, 3‐PG

With improvements in mapping regional distributions of vegetation using satellite‐derived information, there is an increasing interest in the assessment of current limitations on forest growth and in making projections of how productivity may be altered in response to changing climatic conditions and management policies. We utilised a simplified physiologically based process model (3‐PG) across a 54 000 km² mountainous region of southwestern Oregon, USA, to evaluate the degree to which maximum periodic mean annual increment (PAI) of forests could be predicted at a set of 448 forest inventory plots. The survey data were pooled into six broad forest types (coastal rain forest, interior coast range forest, mixed conifer, dry‐site Douglas‐fir, subalpine forest, and pine forest) and compared to the 3‐PG predictions at a spatial resolution of 1 km². We found good agreement (r² = 0.84) between mean PAI values of forest productivity for the six forest types with those obtained from field surveys. With confidence at this broader level of integration, we then ran model simulations to evaluate the constraints imposed by (i) soil fertility under current climatic conditions, (ii) the effect of doubling monthly precipitation across the region, and (iii) a widely used climatic change scenario that involves modifications in monthly mean temperatures and precipitation, as well as a doubling in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. These analyses showed that optimum soil fertility would more than double growth, with the greatest response in the subalpine type and the least increase in the coastal rain forests. Doubling the precipitation increased productivity in the pine type (> 50%) with reduced responses elsewhere. The climate change scenario with doubled atmospheric CO₂ increased growth by 50% on average across all forest types, primarily as a result of a projected 33% increase in photosynthetic capacity. This modelling exercise indicates that, at a regional scale, a general relationship exists between simulated maximum leaf area index and maximum aboveground growth, supporting the contention that satellite‐derived estimates of leaf area index may be good measures of the potential productivity of temperate evergreen forests.     

Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores

Temporal advancement of resource availability by warming in seasonal environments can reduce reproductive success of vertebrates if their own reproductive phenology does not also advance with warming. Indirect evidence from large-scale analyses suggests, however, that migratory vertebrates might compensate for this by tracking phenological variation across landscapes. Results from our two-year warming experiment combined with seven years of observations of plant phenology and offspring production by caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Greenland, however, contradict evidence from large-scale analyses. At spatial scales relevant to the foraging horizon of individual herbivores, spatial variability in plant phenology was reduced--not increased--by both experimental and observed warming. Concurrently, offspring production by female caribou declined with reductions in spatial variability in plant phenology. By highlighting the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch, these results reveal heretofore unexpected adverse consequences of climatic warming for herbivore population ecology.     

Geographical ecology of the palms (Arecaceae): determinants of diversity and distributions across spatial scales

Background

The palm family occurs in all tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Palms are of high ecological and economical importance, and display complex spatial patterns of species distributions and diversity.

Scope

This review summarizes empirical evidence for factors that determine palm species distributions, community composition and species richness such as the abiotic environment (climate, soil chemistry, hydrology and topography), the biotic environment (vegetation structure and species interactions) and dispersal. The importance of contemporary vs. historical impacts of these factors and the scale at which they function is discussed. Finally a hierarchical scale framework is developed to guide predictor selection for future studies.

Conclusions

Determinants of palm distributions, composition and richness vary with spatial scale. For species distributions, climate appears to be important at landscape and broader scales, soil, topography and vegetation at landscape and local scales, hydrology at local scales, and dispersal at all scales. For community composition, soil appears important at regional and finer scales, hydrology, topography and vegetation at landscape and local scales, and dispersal again at all scales. For species richness, climate and dispersal appear to be important at continental to global scales, soil at landscape and broader scales, and topography at landscape and finer scales. Some scale–predictor combinations have not been studied or deserve further attention, e.g. climate on regional to finer scales, and hydrology and topography on landscape and broader scales. The importance of biotic interactions – apart from general vegetation structure effects – for the geographic ecology of palms is generally underexplored. Future studies should target scale–predictor combinations and geographic domains not studied yet. To avoid biased inference, one should ideally include at least all predictors previously found important at the spatial scale of investigation.     

Seasonal patterns of photosynthesis in Douglas fir seedlings during the third and fourth year of exposure to elevated CO2 and temperature

The interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ and temperature on seasonal patterns of photosynthesis in Douglas fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings were examined. Seedlings were grown in sunlit chambers controlled to track either ambient (~400 p.p.m.) CO₂ or ambient +200 p.p.m. CO₂, and either ambient temperature or ambient +4 °C. Light‐saturated net photosynthetic rates were measured approximately monthly over a 21 month period. Elevated CO₂ increased net photosynthetic rates by an average of 21% across temperature treatments during both the 1996 hydrologic year, the third year of exposure, and the 1997 hydrologic year. Elevated mean annual temperature increased net photosynthetic rates by an average of 33% across CO₂ treatments during both years. Seasonal temperature changes also affected net photosynthetic rates. Across treatments, net photosynthetic rates were highest in the spring and autumn, and lowest in July, August and December–January. Seasonal increases in temperature were not correlated with increases in the relative photosynthetic response to elevated CO₂. Seasonal shifts in the photosynthetic temperature optimum reduced temperature effects on the relative response to elevated CO₂. These results suggest that the effects of elevated CO₂ on net photosynthetic rates in Douglas fir are largely independent of temperature.     

Herbarium specimens show patterns of fruiting phenology in native and invasive plant species across New England

Premise of the Study

Patterns of fruiting phenology in temperate ecosystems are poorly understood, despite the ecological importance of fruiting for animal nutrition and seed dispersal. Herbarium specimens represent an under‐utilized resource for investigating geographical and climatic factors affecting fruiting times within species, patterns in fruiting times among species, and differences between native and non‐native invasive species.

Methods

We examined over 15,000 herbarium specimens, collected and housed across New England, and found 3159 specimens with ripe fruits, collected from 1849–2013. We examined patterns in fruiting phenology among 37 native and 18 invasive woody plant species common to New England. We compared fruiting dates between native and invasive species, and analyzed how fruiting phenology varies with temperature, space, and time.

Key Results

Spring temperature and year explained a small but significant amount of the variation in fruiting dates. Accounting for the moderate phylogenetic signal in fruiting phenology, invasive species fruited 26 days later on average than native species, with significantly greater standard deviations.

Conclusions

Herbarium specimens can be used to detect patterns in fruiting times among species. However, the amount of intraspecific variation in fruiting times explained by temporal, geographic, and climatic predictors is small, due to a combination of low temporal resolution of fruiting specimens and the protracted nature of fruiting. Later fruiting times in invasive species, combined with delays in autumn bird migrations in New England, may increase the likelihood that migratory birds will consume and disperse invasive seeds in New England later into the year.     

林窗模型及其在全球气候变化研究中的应用

林窗模型是基于个体的广泛应用于森林长期动态变化的模拟与预测的模型,是研究森林生态系统对气候变化响应的有效工具。本文把林窗模型的发展与演变过程概括为3个阶段:萌芽阶段、飞速发展阶段和提高阶段;展望了林窗模型的未来发展趋势;简要阐述了在全球气候变化背景下应用模型研究森林与气候间关系的可行性与必要性;对国际上相关的研究热点和前沿问题进行了探讨;综述了国内的研究现状,指出国内林窗模型的预测研究应以改进现有模型、构建新模型、耦合多模型作为未来的发展方向。     

Plant invasion across space and time: factors affecting nonindigenous species success during four stages of invasion

Invasive nonindigenous plant species (NIPS) threaten native diversity, alter ecosystem processes, and may interact with other components of global environmental change. Here, a general framework is outlined that attempts to connect patterns of plant invasion to processes underlying these patterns at four well-established spatio-temporal stages of the invasion process: transport, colonization, establishment, and landscape spread. At each stage we organize findings and ideas about the filters that limit NIPS success and the interaction of these filters with historical aspects of introduction events, NIPS traits, and ecosystem properties. While it remains difficult to draw conclusions about the risk of invasion across ecosystems, to delineate universal 'invader traits', or to predict large-scale extinctions following invasions, this review highlights the growing body of research that suggests that the success of invasive NIPS is controlled by a series of key processes or filters. These filters are common to all invasion events, and will interact throughout the stages of plant invasion, although the relative importance of a filter may be stage, species or location specific. It is suggested that both research and management programs may benefit from employing multiscale and stage approaches to studying and controlling invasion. We further use the framework to briefly examine potential interactions between climate change and filters that limit NIPS invasion.     

Towards global patterns in the diversity and community structure of ectomycorrhizal fungi

Global species richness patterns of soil micro-organisms remain poorly understood compared to macro-organisms. We use a global analysis to disentangle the global determinants of diversity and community composition for ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi-microbial symbionts that play key roles in plant nutrition in most temperate and many tropical forest ecosystems. Host plant family has the strongest effect on the phylogenetic community composition of fungi, whereas temperature and precipitation mostly affect EcM fungal richness that peaks in the temperate and boreal forest biomes, contrasting with latitudinal patterns of macro-organisms. Tropical ecosystems experience rapid turnover of organic material and have weak soil stratification, suggesting that poor habitat conditions may contribute to the relatively low richness of EcM fungi, and perhaps other soil biota, in most tropical ecosystems. For EcM fungi, greater evolutionary age and larger total area of EcM host vegetation may also contribute to the higher diversity in temperate ecosystems. Our results provide useful biogeographic and ecological hypotheses for explaining the distribution of fungi that remain to be tested by involving next-generation sequencing techniques and relevant soil metadata.     

Inheritance of nesting behaviour across natural environmental variation in a turtle with temperature-dependent sex determination

Nesting behaviour is critical for reproductive success in oviparous organisms with no parental care. In organisms where sex is determined by incubation temperature, nesting behaviour may be a prime target of selection in response to unbalanced sex ratios. To produce an evolutionary change in response to sex-ratio selection, components of nesting behaviour must be heritable. We estimated the field heritability of two key components of nesting behaviour in a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) with temperature-dependent sex determination by applying the ‘animal model’ to a pedigree reconstructed from genotype data. We obtained estimates of low to non-detectable heritability using repeated records across all environments. We then determined environment-specific heritability by grouping records with similar temperatures for the winter preceding the nesting season, a variable known to be highly associated with our two traits of interest, nest vegetation cover and Julian date of nesting. The heritability estimates of nest vegetation cover and Julian date of nesting were qualitatively highest and significant, or nearly so, after hot winters. Additive genetic variance for these traits was not detectable after cold winters. Our analysis suggests that the potential for evolutionary change of nesting behaviour may be dependent on the thermal conditions of the preceding winter, a season that is predicted to be especially subject to climate change.