Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake‐specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989–2014) and future (2040–2064 and 2065–2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake‐specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33–75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27–60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid‐century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.     

Comparative age and growth of Nile tilapia (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oreochromis niloticus</Emphasis> L.) in lakes Nabugabo and Wamala,Uganda

Age and growth of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) from Lake Nabugabo and Lake Wamala, Uganda, were determined using cross-sectioned sagittal otoliths. Marginal-increment and edge analyses of Nile tilapia otoliths from Lake Nabugabo indicated formation of two annuli per 12-month period. Opaque zones associated with faster growth were observed between April and June and between September and December, coincident with the two rainy seasons of the year. Within both lakes, males were larger at age than females. Nile tilapia from Lake Nabugabo, however, had faster growth rates than Nile tilapia from Lake Wamala, and fish >3 years old from Lake Nabugabo were larger at age than those from Lake Wamala. Ages ranged from 0 to 8.0 years for Nile tilapia from Lake Nabugabo, and from 0.5 to 6.5 years for tilapia from Lake Wamala. Differences in the patterns of growth in Nile tilapia between lakes may reflect, at least in part, the relatively energy-rich omnivorous diet of Nile tilapia in Lake Nabugabo versus a phytoplanktivorous diet in Lake Wamala. Diet differences of Nile tilapia between the two lakes are ascribed to trophic changes in the lakes due to the introduction of Nile perch (Lates niloticus) into Lake Nabugabo but not Lake Wamala. Alternatively, the greater exploitation of Nile tilapia in Lake Nabugabo may have resulted in increased growth rates, whereas Nile tilapia in Lake Wamala may be subject to slower, density-dependent growth. Handling editor: J. Cambray     

Growth chronologies of white sucker, Catostomuscommersoni, and lake trout, Salvelinusnamaycush: a comparison among lakes and between trophic levels

A growth chronology index was used to determine whether changes in ecosystem structure and function in lakes could be associated with fish growth histories. Growth chronologies were compared for white suckers, Catostomus commersoni, from Little Moose (oligotrophic), Oneida (eutrophic), and Cayuga (mesotrophic) lakes (New York) from opercular bone growth increments, and for lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush, from Little Moose Lake using otolith growth. The longevity of these species allowed the development of chronologies from 17 to 33 years in length using only contemporary collections. We used these chronologies to examine whether fish growth histories could be used as an index for ecosystem-scale changes. Specifically, we examined whether zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, invasion in Oneida and Cayuga lakes in the early 1990s, and treatment of sewage effluent from dwellings around Little Moose Lake beginning during the late 1980s could be detected in white sucker and lake trout growth chronologies. White sucker growth in Oneida and Cayuga Lakes did not differ before and after zebra mussel invasions. Neither white sucker nor lake trout growth chronologies from Little Moose Lake reflect changes in growth expected with reduced productivity levels associated with improved sewage treatment. Growth chronologies of these two species did not detect the ecosystem-scale changes that occurred in the study lakes.     

Otolith age determination for adult tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus L. from Lake Awassa (Ethiopian Rift Valley) by interpreting biannuli and differentiating biannual recruitment

Age of mature Oreochromis niloticus in Lake Awassa, Ethiopia, was estimated by analysing optical macrozones (translucent and opaque) in sagittal otoliths from fish sampled over a 12-month period. Seasonal record on the type of macrozone at the edge of otoliths suggested that two translucent macrozones associated with biannuli were formed each year; one during January and February and another during June and July. Formation of translucent macrozones coincided with minimum water temperature, spawning associated loss in condition and presumably with reduction in the quantity and quality of the food consumed by the fish. Relative marginal increment analysis showed that biannulus formation may be completed in March and in August each year. A concurrent study has confirmed a biannual recruitment in O. niloticus in Lake Awassa, from which mid-February and mid-August were taken as median hatch-dates. A procedure to assign otolith age is described which considers median hatch-dates and uses the number of biannuli in otoliths without discriminating between fish from the two recruitment cohorts. We also show a procedure to discriminate between the two cohorts by using the number of biannuli, conditions on the edge of the otolith and time of capture to assign age for the two recruitment cohorts separately.     

Rapid and unexpected effects of piscivore introduction on trophic position and diet of perch (Perca flavescens) in lakes recovering from acidification and metal contamination

1. Yellow perch (Perca flavescens) are often the only surviving fish species in acidified lakes. We studied four lakes along a gradient of recovery from acidification and that had different food web complexities. All had abundant yellow perch, two had low piscivore abundance, one had a well‐established piscivore population and one was manipulated by introducing piscivorous smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu). We hypothesised that there would be strong effects on perch abundance, behaviour and diet induced by the presence of piscivores. 2. In the manipulated lake, the bass reduced yellow perch abundance by 75% over a 2‐year period. Concomitantly, perch use of the pelagic habitat fell from 48 to 40%. 3. In contrast to findings from less disturbed systems, yellow perch in the littoral zone of the manipulated lake did not strongly shift from zooplankton to benthic food sources after the arrival of piscivores. Diet analysis using stable carbon isotopes revealed a strong continued reliance on zooplankton in all lakes, independent of the degree of piscivory. The failure to switch to benthos in the refuge area of the littoral zone is most likely related to the depauperate benthos communities in these formerly acidified lakes. 4. Yellow perch in lakes recovering from acidification face a considerable ecological challenge as the necessary switch to benthic diet is hindered by a low abundance of benthos. The arrival of piscivores in these recovering lakes imposes further restrictions on perch access to food items. We infer that future recovery of perch populations (and higher trophic levels) will have to be preceded by the re‐establishment of diverse benthic macroinvertebrate communities in these lakes.     

Lake‐specific variation in growth,migration timing and survival of juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka: separating environmental from genetic influences

Time series on juvenile life‐history traits obtained from sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka were analysed to assess lake‐specific environmental influences on juvenile migration timing, size and survival of fish from a common gene pool. Every year for the past two decades, O. nerka have been spawned at a hatchery facility, and the progeny released into two lakes that differ in average summer temperatures, limnological attributes and growth opportunities. Juveniles reared in the warmer, more productive Crosswind Lake were larger and heavier as smolts compared to those from the cooler, less productive Summit Lake and had higher in‐lake and subsequent marine survival. Crosswind Lake smolts migrated from the lake to sea slightly earlier in the season but the migration timing distributions overlapped considerably across years. Fry stocking density had a negative effect on smolt length for both lakes, and a negative effect on in‐lake survival in Summit Lake. Taken together, the results revealed a strong effect of lake‐rearing environment on the expression of life‐history variation in O. nerka. The stocking of these lakes each year with juveniles from a single mixed‐source population provided a large‐scale reverse common‐garden experiment, where the same gene pool was exposed to different environments, rather than the different gene pools in the same environment approach typical of evolutionary ecology studies. Other researchers are encouraged to seek and exploit similar serendipitous situations, which might allow environmental and genetic influences on ecologically important traits to be distinguished in natural or semi‐natural settings.     

Fish species distribution in relation to water quality gradients in the North Branch of the Moose River Basin

The distribution of fish species in the North Branch of the Moose River (Lake Rondaxe to headwaters of Big Moose Lake) was determined by intensive netting and electrofishing surveys of lakes and streams in the watershed during 1982–83. A chronology of changes in fish species occurrence in the drainage system was reconstructed from earlier published surveys conducted in 1882 and 1931 and unpublished survey data obtained by the NYSDEC during the period 1948–1975. Native species present in 1882 were also collected in 1931. Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) were introduced in the early 1900's and were present in collections made in 1931. Major changes in the fish community have taken place since 1931. The smallmouth bass and many of the native species found in the earlier surveys were either absent or restricted in occurrence to downstream sites (eg. L. Rondaxe and Moss L. sub-drainage) in 1982. Non-native species introduced after 1931 (yellow perch,Perca flavescens; central mudminnow,Umbra limi; banded killifish,Fundulus diaphanus) are currently widely distributed throughout the drainage system. In particular, the yellow perch is now a dominant species in the larger lakes of the basin. Comparisons of survival rates for caged fish transferred from high to low pH sites in the Big Moose drainage system demonstrated relatively greater acid tolerane of non-native species (yellow perch, mudminnow, killifish) than native cyprinids. Watershed acidity gradients (pH and aluminum concentrations) and relative physiological acid tolerance are major determinants of currently observed fish species distribution patterns in the North Branch of the Moose River. Differences in age and size structure of fish populations inhabiting acidic and non-acidic lakes of the drainage system were apparent, but difficult to interpret without additional information onpopulation size and potential density dependent parameters such as age specific growth and survival rates. Differential hatching success was observed for yellow perch eggs reciprocally transferred between acid (Big Moose) and neutral (Moss L.) lakes. Eggs transferred from Moss L. to Big Moose L. exhibited poor hatching success as a result of alterations in egg membrane structure that inhibited normal egg expansion and the hatching process. This effect was not evident in eggs from the same parents reared in Moss Lake nor in eggs from the Big Moose parents reared in both lakes. These experimental observations suggested possible genetic adaptation to acid stress by the yellow perch population inhabiting Big Moose Lake.     

Divergent life histories among smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu inhabiting a connected river–lake system

Annual reproductive surveys monitored nesting location, reproductive success and the age and size of individually tagged male smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu that reproduced in Millers Lake, a 45 ha widening of the Mississippi River, Ontario, and in a 1·5 km pool and riffle section of the river directly upstream. The vast majority of males displayed fidelity to either the river or the lake as reproductive habitat throughout their lifetimes. Nearly, half of the males that reproduced in successive years exhibited strong nest‐site fidelity by nesting within 20 m of their previous year’s nest site. In most years, when compared to those in the lake, reproductive males in the river differed significantly in reproductive characteristics including age and size at maturation and nesting success rates. A 3 year telemetry project identified two distinct habitat use patterns: lake‐resident fish remained in the lake throughout the year and potamodromous individuals migrated from the lake to upriver spawning habitat in the spring and then returned to the lake prior to the onset of winter. Integration of habitat use and reproductive data suggests that there are significant differences in the life‐history strategies of fish that reproduce in the river v. the lake.     

Response of a shallow Mediterranean lake to nutrient diversion: does it follow similar patterns as in northern shallow lakes?

1. In view of the paucity of data on the response of warm shallow lakes to reductions in nutrient loading, this paper presents a long‐term limnological data set to document changes in the food‐web of a shallow Mediterranean lake (Lake Albufera, Valencia, Spain) that has experienced reductions in phosphorus (P) (77%) and nitrogen (N) (24%) loading following sewage diversion. 2. Nine years after sewage diversion, P concentration in the lake was reduced by 30% but remained high (TP = 0.34 mg L^?1), although the mean water retention time in the lake was only 0.1 years. Nitrate concentrations did not significantly change, probably because the lake continued to receive untreated effluents from ricefields. 3. Chlorophyll a concentration was reduced by half (annual mean of 180 μg L^?1). Cyanobacteria abundance remained high but its composition changed towards smaller species, both filamentous and chroococcal forms. 4. Cladocera abundance increased and reached peaks twice a year (December to March and July to September). After nutrient reduction, short‐term clear‐water phases (up to 5 weeks) occurred during February to March in several years, concomitant with annual flushing of the lake and lower fish densities. The abundance of Cladocera in winter contrasted with the spring peaks observed in northern restored shallow lakes. The zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratio remained lower than in northern temperate shallow lakes, probably because of fish predation on zooplankton. 5. Improvement of the water quality of Lake Albufera remained insufficient to counteract littoral reed regression or improve underwater light allowing submerged plants re‐colonise the lake. 6. Sewage diversion from Lake Albufera impacted the food web through the plankton, but higher trophic levels, such as fish and waterfowl, were affected to a lesser degree. Although the fish species present in the lake are mainly omnivorous, long‐term data on commercial fish captures indicated that fish communities changed in response to nutrient level and trophic structure as has been observed in restored shallow lakes at northern latitudes. 7. Phosphorus concentrations produced similar phytoplankton biomass in Lake Albufera as in more northern shallow lakes with abundant planktivorous fish and small zooplankton. However, in Lake Albufera, high average concentrations were maintained throughout the year. Overall, results suggest that nutrient control may be a greater priority in eutrophicated warm shallow lakes than in similar lakes at higher latitudes.     

Cost of predation avoidance in young-of-year lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush): growth differential in sub-optimal habitats

Selection of habitat to avoid predation may affect the diet of young-of-year (YOY) lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). YOY lake trout may use inshore habitat to avoid predation; this habitat may be sub-optimal for growth. To test this, YOY lake trout were penned in nearshore and offshore pelagic areas of two arctic lakes. Toolik Lake had a lake trout population, the other lake, S6, did not. YOY lake trout in Toolik Lake lost weight, but those offshore lost less weight. The YOY lake trout in Lake S6 gained weight and those offshore gained more weight. The primary diet item of the YOY lake trout in both lakes during this experiment was the zooplankter Diaptomis probilofensis; it was also one of the most abundant species. However, its density inshore in Lake S6 was similar to inshore and offshore densities in Toolik Lake. The increased availability of alternative zooplankton prey in Lake S6 may account for the growth differential of YOY lake trout in Lake S6 relative to Toolik Lake. Bioenergetic modeling of YOY lake trout suggests that growth similar to that in the offshore of Lake S6 would be necessary for successful recruitment. If the reduced zooplankton availability in Toolik Lake leads to the reduced growth of YOY in the inshore and offshore pelagic areas, then these fish will be more susceptable to winter predation/starvation. For YOY lake trout to survive in Toolik Lake they most likely shift to feeding on benthic prey before the end of their first summer. Dept. of Chemical Engineering     

Age and size-dependent variation in the seasonal timing and probability of reproduction among mature female pumpkinseed,Lepomis gibbosus

Synopsis In this study, we used pumpkinseed,Lepomis gibbosus, populations in two east-central Ontario lakes to test for age and size-dependent effects on the probability and timing of reproduction of mature females. Pumpkinseed body size characteristics differed in the two lakes; Little Round Lake harbours a stunted population and Beloporine Lake does not. Age-class distribution of mature females was determined by a maturity assessment on fish collected just prior to spawning and at the mid-spawning period, combined with an early-season capture-mark-recapture survey. Spawning females were collected throughout the breeding season to assess age and size-related temporal trends, and to compare their age and size distribution with that of mature females at large. The proportion of age 2 females in Little Round Lake that actually spawned was considerably lower than the proportion of mature age 2 females at large. Furthermore, age 2 females that spawned in this lake did not do so until late in the breeding season. In contrast, the proportion of young/small females spawning in Beloporine Lake was comparable to the proportion of young/small mature females at large, and both small and large females spawned throughout the breeding season. Small mature females in Little Round Lake may have had no other option but to spawn late in the season because of their poor body condition. In Beloporine Lake, condition factor early in the breeding season in age 2–4 females was higher than that of Little Round Lake females, suggesting that limited energy reserves in the spring may have prevented young Little Round Lake females from early spawning. Our results show that the likelihood and timing of reproduction are both age and size-dependent in some populations. Small individuals that delay seasonal maturation and spawn late in the summer probably contribute little to the population due to the restricted growth and reduced overwinter survival of their progeny.To whom correspondence should be addressed     

Examination of the effects of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) on the ecosystem attributes of lake Kawahara-oike,Nagasaki, Japan

The introduction of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) into the freshwater ecosystems of Japan has resulted in the suppression and/or replacement of native species, generating considerable concerns among resource managers. The impacts of largemouth bass and bluegill on native fauna have been examined in aquaria and isolated farm ponds, but there is limited work examining the likelihood to fundamentally modifying Japan's lakes. The objective of the present study is to examine the direct and synergistic ecological effects of largemouth bass and bluegill on the biotic communities of Lake Kawahara-oike, Nagasaki, Japan, using an ecosystem (Ecopath) modeling approach. Specifically, we examine whether the two fish species have played a critical role in shaping the trophodynamics of the lake. We attempt to shed light on the trophic interactions between largemouth bass and bluegill and subsequently evaluate to what extent these interactions facilitate their establishment at the expense of native species. We also examine how these changes propagate through the Lake Kawahara-oike food web. Our study suggests that the introduction of bluegill has induced a range of changes at multiple trophic levels. The present analysis also provides evidence that largemouth bass was unable to exert significant top-down control on the growth rates of the bluegill population. Largemouth bass and bluegill appear to prevail over the native fish species populations and can apparently coexist in large numbers in invaded lakes. Future management strategies controlling invasive species are urgently required, if the integrity of native Japanese fish communities is to be protected.     

Temperature, growth and dietary effects on fish mercury dynamics in two Ontario lakes

A bioenergetics-based model was used to investigate the effects of temperature, growth and dietary exposure on methylmercury dynamics in walleye (Stizostedion vitreum) and yellow perch (Perca flavescens) from two lakes sampled in northwestern Ontario. Orange Lake was smaller, warmer, had slower fish growth and higher mercury concentrations in yearling yellow perch and walleye (three fold difference in 40 cm walleye) than Trout Lake. The model was applied to test the hypothesis that higher water temperatures in Orange Lake increased metabolic needs, food consumption and mercury uptake in fish. The effects of different growths rates in the lakes were also considered. Temperature/metabolic effects and growth effects on internal methylmercury dynamics in walleye and perch were predicted to occur but be of secondary importance. Different dietary exposure to methylmercury was likely the dominant source of variation in fish mercury concentrations between the two lakes.     

Effects of a Whole-lake,Experimental Fertilization on Lake Trout in a Small Oligotrophic Arctic Lake

We tested whether increased phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations would affect a lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) population in a small oligotrophic lake with a benthically dominated food web. From 1990 to 1994, nitrogen and phosphorus were added to Lake N1 (4.4 ha) at the arctic Long-Term Ecological Research site in Alaska. We used mark/recapture methods to determine the lake trout population size, size structure, recruitment, and individual growth from 1987 to 1999. Data were also collected on water chemistry and food availability. Fertilization resulted in increased pelagic primary productivity, chlorophyll a, turbidity, snail density, and hypoxia in summer and winter. Lake trout density was not affected by the manipulation however growth and average size increased. Recruitment was high initially, but declined throughout the fertilization. These results suggest that lake trout were affected through increased food availability and changes to the physical characteristics of the lake. During fertilization, hypoxia near the sediments may have killed over-wintering embryos and decreased habitat availability. Although lake trout responded strongly to increased nutrients, loss of recruitment might jeopardize lake trout persistence if arctic lakes undergo eutrophication.     

The photosynthetic and growth rate responses of two freshwater angiosperms in lakes of different trophic status: responses to light and dissolved inorganic carbon

SUMMARY 1. Two rooted freshwater macrophytes ( Lagarosiphon major (Ridley) Moss; Myriophyllum triphyllum Orchard) were grown in two lakes of differing trophic status on sediments collected from an eutrophic lake. In the two experiments (summer and winter) in the oligotrophic lake (Lake Taupo, New Zealand), the relative growth rates of both species were approximately double those recorded in the experiments in the eutrophic take (Lake Rotorua, New Zealand). These growth responses occurred even though the light and temperature regimes were similar at the experimental sites in both lakes and the concentrations of inorganic nutrients were higher in the eutrophic lake water.
2. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) analysis of both lake waters indicated that the oligotrophic water had approximately 10-fold more DIC than the eutrophic water. This corresponded, at natural pH, to a 2-fold higher concentration of free-CO₂ in the oligotrophic lake water (49 μM) than in the eutrophic lake water (23 μM). Photosynthetic experiments demonstrated that the maximum rates of photosynthesis were 2.46 and 2.25-fold higher in L. major and M. triphyllum , respectively, when the shoots were incubated in Lake Taupo water at Lake Taupo levels of free-CO₂ relative to Lake Rotorua water at Lake Rotorua levels of free-CO₂.
3. It is concluded that these differences in photosynthetic rates would lead approximately to a 2-fold difference in growth rate, thus explaining the growth responses observed in the field experiments.     

用鳞片和耳石鉴定鲫年龄的比较研究

两观测者独立观测了分别采自洪湖的175尾和洞庭湖的168尾鲫样本的鲜片和耳石,结果显示鳞片适于鉴定年龄组成简单、生长较快的洞庭湖鲫种群的年龄,两观测者年轮读数的总吻合率可达90.5%,与耳石上年轮读数的吻合率也可高达91.7%;但用鳞片鉴定年龄结构复杂、生长缓慢的洪湖鲫种群年龄,两观测者总吻合率只有50.9%,各龄组吻合率随年龄上升而迅速下降。与耳石上年轮读数总吻合率也仅为56.6A%,存在比耳石低估高龄个体年龄的问题,用耳石鉴定鲫年龄具有易于识别、精确度高的优点,用之鉴定洪湖和洞庭湖鲫种群年龄,两观测者年轮读数的总吻合率都很高,分别为92.7%和97.0%,且随年龄上升,依然可保持较高的精确度,对洪湖鲫种群应用耳石为宜。     

Factors affecting growth and recruitment of yellow perch, Perca flavescens Mitchill, in South Bay, Lake Huron

Five hypotheses explaining variations in growth and recruitment were tested statistically with data from a study of yellow perch, Perca flavescens , 1950–83. Recruitment was not a function of water temperature during spawning, hatching or the first year, but was a function of lake water levels. Growth was not related to average water temperatures or degree-days, but was inversely correlated with the abundance of year-classes.     

Acidification affects the perch,Perca fluviatilis,populations in small lakes,of southern Finland

Synopsis Characteristics of perch were studied in 4 recently acidified lakes in southern Finland. The densities of the populations were 0–250 ha^–1 compared with 1400–3300 ha^–1 in two circumneutral reference lakes. The perch were close to extinction in one acidic lake and dominated by 7 year old fish in two other acidic lakes, suggesting decreased reproduction. Individual fecundity was not reduced by the acidity, but high mortality (close to 100%) of eggs in two acidic lakes indicated recruitment failure. In one of the acidified lakes reproduction had continued resulting in a population dominated by younger fish. However, increased egg mortality, low density, and the resulting high growth rate of perch in this lake were considered to be consequences of the acidity. These findings are the first documentation on the possible decrease of fish populations in Finland due to acid precipitation.     

Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and the invasion of smallmouth bass on native lake trout populations across Canadian lakes

Climate change and invasive species are two stressors that should have large impacts on native species in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We quantify and integrate the effects of climate change and the establishment of an invasive species (smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu ) on native lake trout Salvelinus namaycush populations. We assembled a dataset of almost 22 000 Canadian lakes that contained information on fish communities, lake morphologies, and geography. We examined the pelagic-benthic and littoral forage fish community available to lake trout populations across three lake size classes in these aquatic ecosystems. Due to the decreased presence of alternate prey resources, lake trout populations residing in smaller lakes are more vulnerable to the effects of smallmouth bass establishment. A detailed spatially and temporally explicit approach to assess smallmouth bass invasion risk in Ontario lakes suggests that the number of Ontario lakes with vulnerable lake trout populations could increase from 118 (~1%) to 1612 (~20%) by 2050 following projected climate warming. In addition, we identified nearly 9700 lake trout populations in Canada threatened by 2100, by the potential range expansion of smallmouth bass. Our study provides an integration of two major stressors of ecosystems, namely climate change and invasive species, by considering climate-change scenarios, dispersal rates of invasive species, and inter-specific biotic interactions.     

Patterns of Fish Growth along a Residential Development Gradient in North Temperate Lakes

Residential development of lakeshores is expected to change a variety of key lake features that include increased nutrient loading, increased invasion rate of nonnative species, increased exploitation rates of fishes by anglers, and alteration of littoral habitats. All of these factors may alter the capacity of lakes to support productive native fish populations. Fourteen north temperate lakes were surveyed to examine how growth rates of two common fish species (bluegill sunfish, Lepomis macrochirus; largemouth bass, Micropterus salmoides) varied along a residential development gradient. Size-specific growth rates for both species were negatively correlated with the degree of lakeshore residential development, although this trend was not statistically significant for largemouth bass. On average, annual growth rates for bluegill sunfish were 2.6 times lower in heavily developed lakes than in undeveloped lakes. This effect of lakeshore development on fish growth was not size specific for bluegills between 60 and 140 mm in total length. An index of population production rate that accounted for both the size-specific growth rate and the size distribution of fishes showed that bluegill populations were approximately 2.3 times less productive in highly developed lakes than in undeveloped lakes. Our results suggest that extensive residential development of lakeshores may reduce the fish production capacity of aquatic ecosystems. Received 29 April 1999; Accepted 26 October 1999.