Are snake populations in widespread decline?

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.     

生态系统的人口承载力理论初探

人口膨涨是当今人类面临的五大问题之一,也是我国目前所面临的最棘手的一个问题。近年来,人口学的发展很快,但是目前人口学研究的主要问题是人口统计、人口预测、人口控制和人口经济等方面,其中对于人口控制的目标,即定量研究理想人口数量的工作则刚开始。从生态学角度讨论人口承载力问题的更少。生态系统人口承载力的研究不仅可以给出一个生态系统(如全球生态系统或一个流域或一个地区)在保证系统结构和功能不受破坏条件下所能供养的最大人口数,而且可以给出该生态系统的人口控制目标,使人口控制的目标选择具有科学的基础。     

Patterns of endemism in riverine fish of the Northern Hemisphere

Loss of endemic species represents a symptom of general degrading ecosystem conditions that is the indirect result of biodiversity alteration. Here, we developed a predictive model relating species richness of endemic riverine fishes to measured biological, climatic, and historical variables using data from 118 rivers distributed all over the Northern Hemisphere. In a minimally adequate multiple general least square model, total riverine fish species richness, historical biogeography (Pleistocene glaciations), and comtemporary climate accounted for 63% of the variability in endemic species richness; the strongest correlate being riverine fish species richness. Our findings suggest that (i) endemism and richness patterns are generally similar (fish diversity "hot-spots" areas sustain higher endemic species richness); (ii) glaciation in the Pleistocene have had a significant negative influence on endemic species richness in the more septentrional areas; and (iii) certain basins situated in desertic areas (subtropical dry-zone of deserts) have unusually high numbers of endemics. These last areas should not be overshadowed when setting conservation priorities.     

京郊密云县农业生态系统蛋白人口承载力模型分析

农业生态系统蛋白人口承载力不仅是农业生态学系统生产力研究的重要方面,而且是制定我国人口政策和食物战略的重要依据。中央曾指出:要把我国人民的膳物结构问题作为战略问题来考虑。分析我国的膳食特点可概括为“一够两缺”(即热量够,蛋白质和脂肪缺)温饱型营养水平。食物蛋白质的改善是我国膳食结     

Animal exchange ratios: an alternative point of view

An alternative interpretation is provided of the concepts of carrying capacity and exchange ratios, particularly suitable for game animal species, based on management models for a given area of rangeland or pasture. It involves modelling animal population dynamics as discrete‐time logistic equations. Carrying capacity is then generated endogenously using rainfall as a proxy. The model interaction parameters, also generated endogenously, represent the animal exchange ratios. Because these two parameters are generated endogenously, this approach takes into account all the animals' habitat requirements (food, cover, water and space) simultaneously, unlike other approaches that tend to consider food requirements only. This makes the approach amenable to multi‐species situations. It also captures the ecological definition of population growth models where the realized rather than the theoretical carrying capacity is determined endogenously.     

Large geographical differences in the sensitivity of ice‐covered lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere to temperature changes

Based on a unique dataset of more than 50 000 observations of ice phenology from 1213 lakes and 236 rivers in 12 different countries, we show that interannual variations in the timing of ice‐on and ice‐off on lakes and rivers are not equally pronounced over the entire Northern Hemisphere, but increase strongly towards geographical regions that experience only short periods during which the air temperature falls below 0 °C. We explain our observations by interannual fluctuation patterns of air temperature and suggest that lake and river ecosystems in such geographical regions are particularly vulnerable to global warming, as high interannual variability is known to have important ramifications for ecosystem structure and functioning. We estimate that the standard deviation of the duration of ice cover, viewed as a measure of interannual variability, exceeds 25 days for lakes and rivers located on 7% of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere. Such high variability might be an early warning signal for a critical transition from strictly dimictic, ice‐covered systems to monomictic, open‐water systems. Using the Global Lake and Wetland Database, we suggest that 3.7% of the world's lakes larger than 0.1 km² are at high risk of becoming open‐water systems in the near future, which will have immediate consequences for global biogeochemical cycles.     

Elevated CO2 affects the interactions between aphid pests and host plant flowering

1 Broad beans (Vicia faba L.) were grown at either ambient (350 μL/L) or elevated (700 μL/L) CO₂. Elevated CO₂ increased shoot weight by 14% and root weight by 24% compared to ambient, but did not affect flowering. 2 A single pea aphid (Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris)) and its progeny decreased shoot and root weights by 20 and 24%, respectively, at ambient CO₂ after 20 days, but did not affect flower number. At elevated CO₂A. pisum decreased shoot and root weights by 27 and 34% and flower number decreased by 73%. 3 A single glasshouse and potato aphid (Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach)) and its progeny had no effect on the growth of bean plants after 20 days at ambient CO₂. At elevated CO₂, A. solani decreased shoot and root weights by 20 and 18%, and flower number by 60%. 4 The large reduction in flowering caused by aphids at elevated CO₂ suggests a change in resource allocation within the plants to compensate for aphid infestation. 5 Aphid density was unaffected by elevated CO₂, although there were significant effects of CO₂ on the resulting population structure of both A. pisum and A solani. We suggest that at elevated CO₂, aphids appear not to achieve their maximum reproductive potential and their populations are limited by the lower carrying capacity of their host plants.     

Seed–litter–position drives seedling establishment in grassland species under recurrent drought

Changes in land use and climate interfere with grassland ecosystem processes. Here I experimentally investigated the combined effects of land‐use change related litter cover and contrasting water supply on seedling emergence. In this context, the role of the initial relative position of seeds, i.e. seeds on top of the litter versus seeds beneath the litter in interaction with water supply has not been investigated so far. I hypothesised that facilitative effects of litter on seedling emergence occur when seeds are covered by litter and deteriorate when litter covers the ground and seeds fall on it (seeds on top of the litter). Further, I hypothesised that the importance of seed position for seedling emergence will increase under conditions of recurrent drought. I performed a controlled pot experiment on seedling emergence of three common European grassland species (Pimpinella saxifraga, Leontodon autumnalis, Sanguisorba officinalis) by experimental manipulations of litter and water availability. Seedling emergence under moist conditions showed no significant differences between each litter position compared to the control across species. In contrast, under recurrent drought, seedling emergence was significantly higher below the litter compared to seeds on top of the litter and the control (i.e. no litter). In abandoned land, seedling emergence may be limited when seeds fall on ground‐covering litter. In contrast, in grasslands with regular low‐intensity land use, seedling emergence may be enhanced when a moderate level of litter covers seeds at the end of the growing season. Protective mechanisms that occur with seeds positioned beneath litter are particularly important under recurrent drought.     

Sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology in North European songbird populations

This study aims to investigate causes and mechanisms controlling protandrous migration patterns (the earlier breeding area arrival of males relative to females) and inter-sexual differences in timing of migration in relation to the recent climate-driven changes in phenology. Using standardised ringing data from a single site for eight North European migratory passerines collected throughout 22 years, we analysed sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology of the entire populations. Our results show protandrous patterns for the first as well as later arriving individuals for all studied species. Males show more synchronous migration patterns compared to females and, hence, first arriving females followed males more closely than later arriving individuals. However, we found no inter-sexual differences in arrival trends as both sexes advance spring arrival over time with the largest change for the first arriving individuals. These findings seem in support of the “mate opportunity” hypothesis, as the arrival of males and females is strongly coupled and both sexes seem to compete for early arrival. Changes in timing of arrival in males and females as a response to climatic changes may influence subsequent mating decisions, with subsequent feedbacks on population dynamics such as reproductive success and individual fitness. However, during decades of consistent earlier spring arrival in all phases of migration we found no evidence of inter-sexual phenological differences.     

Sayil Revisited: Inferring Terminal Classic Population Size and Dynamics in the West-Central Yucatán Peninsula

Research at the site of Sayil in the Yucatan Peninsula has provided a valuable database for making inferences about the Terminal Classic (A.D. 750–1000) occupation of the Puuc region. This article evaluates and modifies previous demographic estimates for the site and considers the long-term implications associated with supporting this many people. Although a relatively high level of population was possible because of the excellent soils in the region, their natural fertility could not have been sustained indefinitely. The apparent demographic load on the proposed Sayil system would have required an intensive cropping strategy that may not have been sustainable for more than 75 years. This conclusion not only indicates how long the principal occupation of Sayil may have lasted, but more importantly, how the occupational dynamics during the Terminal Classic may have played out in the greater Puuc region.     

中国农业生态系统的生产潜力和人口承载力

中国农业生态系统的生产潜力和人口承载力是全球关注的问题。本研究将农业生态系统的生产潜力定义为由生物遗传特性和4大宏观生态条件(太阳辐射、温度、水资源和土地资源)共同决定的生产力上限;以无机环境-第一性生产-第二性生产之间的结构适应性和能量-物质流平衡为主线,发展了对农业生态系统生产潜力和人口承载力的综合评价模型,它包括第一性生产潜力子模型和第二性生产潜力与人口承载力优化子模型;并应用该模型把中国农业生态系统分为603个区域单元,进行第一性生产潜力,第二性生产潜力和人口承载力的评价。     

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (∼20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.