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1.
The local spatial congruence between climate changes and community changes has rarely been studied over large areas. We proposed one of the first comprehensive frameworks tracking local changes in community composition related to climate changes. First, we investigated whether and how 12 years of changes in the local composition of bird communities were related to local climate variations. Then, we tested the consequences of this climate‐induced adjustment of communities on Grinnellian (habitat‐related) and Eltonian (function‐related) homogenization. A standardized protocol monitoring spatial and temporal trends of birds over France from 2001 to 2012 was used. For each plot and each year, we used the spring temperature and the spring precipitations and calculated three indices reflecting the thermal niche, the habitat specialization, and the functional originality of the species within a community. We then used a moving‐window approach to estimate the spatial distribution of the temporal trends in each of these indices and their congruency with local climatic variations. Temperature fluctuations and community dynamics were found to be highly variable in space, but their variations were finely congruent. More interestingly, the community adjustment to temperature variations was nonmonotonous. Instead, unexplained fluctuations in community composition were observed up to a certain threshold of climate change intensity, above which a change in community composition was observed. This shift corresponded to a significant decrease in the relative abundance of habitat specialists and functionally original species within communities, regardless of the direction of temperature change. The investigation of variations in climate and community responses appears to be a central step toward a better understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity. Our results suggest a fine‐scale and short‐term adjustment of community composition to temperature changes. Moreover, significant temperature variations seem to be responsible for both the Grinnellian and Eltonian aspects of functional homogenization.  相似文献   

2.
Generalist species are becoming increasingly dominant in European bird communities. This has been taken as evidence of biotic homogenization, whereby generalist ‘winners’ systematically replace specialist ‘losers’. We test this pattern by relating changes in the average specialization of UK bird communities to changes in the density of species with different degrees of habitat specialization. Although we find the expected decline in community specialization, this was driven by a combination of a strong increase in the density of the most generalist quartile of species and declines in the density of moderately generalist species. Contrary to expectation, specialist species increased slightly over the 18‐year study period but had little effect on the overall trend in community specialization. Our results indicate that the apparent homogenization of UK bird communities is not driven by the replacement of specialists by generalists, but instead by the changing fortunes of generalist species.  相似文献   

3.
Aim To test whether functional homogenization of bird communities is promoted by anthropogenic landscape transformation, using specialization and habitat preference indices that account for the multidimensionality of niches. Location Catalonia, north‐east Iberian Peninsula. Methods We used data on bird species occurrences and landscape features in 2834 1‐km2 squares. Three orthogonal landscape gradients, which were taken as niche dimensions, were defined by means of principal components analysis (PCA). Specialization and habitat preference indices were created for 103 terrestrial bird species on the basis of their frequency of occurrence variation along the landscape gradients. These indices, together with species rarity, were then averaged for bird communities. We then analysed the patterns of variation of communities’ mean specialization, mean rarity and mean habitat preference values along a gradient of agricultural–forest habitat mosaics. Results Wherever we found a significant variation in the degree of specialization along the agricultural–forest gradient, agricultural habitats held more specialized bird communities than did forest ones and bore, on average, rarer species. Thus, results contradicted our initial hypothesis that humanized areas would bear more functionally homogenized bird communities. Higher α‐diversity values tended to be associated with generalist communities and with those having rarer species. Main conclusions Estimations of bird community specialization for different niche dimensions can behave differently along certain landscape gradients, and some of these differences can be explained by the variation of mean habitat preferences. Thus, we argue that a multidimensional approach to assess average niche breadth of communities can be more informative than a unidimensional measure. Our results suggest that widespread land abandonment and current secondary forest expansion throughout the Mediterranean area are promoting functional homogenization of bird communities. It would be desirable to construct larger‐scale indicators of functional homogenization in order to monitor communities’ responses to widespread landscape changes.  相似文献   

4.
A species’ susceptibility to environmental change might be predicted by its ecological and life‐history traits. However, the effects of such traits on long‐term bird population trends have not yet been assessed using a comprehensive set of explanatory variables. Moreover, the extent to which phylogeny affects patterns in the interspecific variability of population changes is unclear. Our study focuses on the interspecific variability in long‐term population trends and annual population fluctuations of 68 passerine species in the Czech Republic, assessing the effects of eight life‐history and five ecological traits. Ordination of life‐history traits of 68 species revealed a life‐history gradient, from ‘r‐selected’ (e.g. small body mass, short lifespan, high fecundity, large clutch size) to ‘K‐selected’ species. r‐selected species had more negative population trends than K‐selected species, and seed‐eaters declined compared with insectivores. We suggest that the r‐selected species probably suffer from widespread environmental changes, and the seed‐eaters from current changes in agriculture and land use. Populations of residents fluctuated more than populations of short‐distance migrants, probably due to the effect of winter climatic variability. Variance partitioning at three taxonomic levels showed that whereas population trends, population fluctuations and habitat specialization expressed the highest variability at the species level, most life‐history traits were more variable at higher taxonomic levels. These results explain the loss of statistical power in the relationship between life histories and population trends after controlling for phylogeny. However, we argue that a lack of significance after controlling for phylogeny should not reduce the value of such results for conservation purposes.  相似文献   

5.
Aim Urbanization and deforestation are important drivers of biodiversity change. However, long‐term changes in faunal communities within urbanizing regions are poorly understood. We investigated how well observed community changes in both space and time agree with expectations based on current paradigms in urban ecology. Location Greater Brisbane region, Australia. Methods We compared bird assemblages in two time‐periods 15 years apart, at multiple sites in remnant forest and residential suburbs across an urbanizing landscape. Differences in assemblage composition, species abundances and functional groupings were assessed within and between habitats. Results Compared with forest, suburbs in both time‐periods had over twice the total bird abundance, a different species composition, greater between‐site community similarity, a greater proportion of non‐native species and greater dominance by large‐bodied species. These differences corresponded with changes in sites whose habitat was converted from forest to suburb. Between time‐periods, abundances of 58% of suburban species changed significantly compared with those of 11% in forest. Increaser species outnumbered decreasers in suburbs, with the reverse in forest. Abundance of small‐bodied birds decreased 70% in suburbs and 20% in forest. Broad‐spectrum competitors and nest predators were common among suburban increasers. Among invasive species, the number of increasers was counterbalanced by decreasers. Both site‐scale species richness and between‐site community similarity increased to a small extent in both habitats. Main conclusions Species composition and ecological function of suburban bird communities were very dynamic. Suburban assemblages were neither a subset of forest species nor an increasingly non‐native compilation. Communities in large forest patches were comparatively stable. The notion of habitat‐specific species turnover better characterizes the nature of most changes than either species decline or homogenization, even though both of these were evident. There is considerable scope for careful urban planning, focused on both among‐ and within‐habitat variety, to sustain bird diversity in urbanizing landscapes.  相似文献   

6.
Earth is experiencing multiple global changes that will, together, determine the fate of many species. Yet, how biological communities respond to concurrent stressors at local‐to‐regional scales remains largely unknown. In particular, understanding how local habitat conversion interacts with regional climate change to shape patterns in β‐diversity—differences among sites in their species compositions—is critical to forecast communities in the Anthropocene. Here, we study patterns in bird β‐diversity across land‐use and precipitation gradients in Costa Rica. We mapped forest cover, modeled regional precipitation, and collected data on bird community composition, vegetation structure, and tree diversity across 120 sites on 20 farms to answer three questions. First, do bird communities respond more strongly to changes in land use or climate in northwest Costa Rica? Second, does habitat conversion eliminate β‐diversity across climate gradients? Third, does regional climate control how communities respond to habitat conversion and, if so, how? After correcting for imperfect detection, we found that local land‐use determined community shifts along the climate gradient. In forests, bird communities were distinct between sites that differed in vegetation structure or precipitation. In agriculture, however, vegetation structure was more uniform, contributing to 7%–11% less bird turnover than in forests. In addition, bird responses to agriculture and climate were linked: agricultural communities across the precipitation gradient shared more species with dry than wet forest communities. These findings suggest that habitat conversion and anticipated climate drying will act together to exacerbate biotic homogenization.  相似文献   

7.
Aims Biogeographical evidence suggests a strong link between climate and patterns of species diversity, and climate change is known to cause range shifts. However, there is little understanding of how shifts affect community composition and we lack empirical evidence of recent impacts of climate change on the diversity of vertebrates. Using a long‐term comprehensive dataset on bird abundance, we explore recent patterns of change in different components of species diversity and avian communities, and postulate a process to explain the observed changes in diversity and specialization. Location Britain. Methods We used Breeding Bird Survey data for Britain from 1994 to 2006 to calculate site‐specific diversity and community specialization indices. We modelled these indices using generalized additive models to examine the relationship between local climate and spatial and temporal trends in community metrics and the relationship between changes in diversity and specialization. Results Local temperature was positively associated with alpha diversity, which increased over the study period, supporting empirical and theoretical predictions of the effect of climate warming. Diversity increased in all habitats, but the rate of increase was greatest in upland areas. However, temperature was negatively associated with community specialization indices, which declined over the same period. Our modelling revealed a nonlinear relationship between community specialization and species diversity. Main conclusions Our models of diversity and specialization provide stark empirical evidence for a link between warming climate and community homogenization. Over a 13‐year period of warming temperatures, diversity indices increased while average community specialization decreased. We suggest that the observed diversity increases were most likely driven by range expansion of generalist species and that future warming is likely to increase homogenization of community structure. When assessed in combination, diversity and specialization measures provide a powerful index for monitoring the impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

8.
Protected areas are meant to preserve native local communities within their boundaries, but they are not independent from their surroundings. Impoverished habitat quality in the matrix might influence the species composition within the protected areas through biotic homogenization. The aim of this study was to determine the impacts of matrix quality on species richness and trait composition of bird communities from the Finnish reserve area network and whether the communities are being subject of biotic homogenization due to the lowered quality of the landscape matrix. We used joint species distribution modeling to study how characteristics of the Finnish forest reserves and the quality of their surrounding matrix alter species and trait compositions of forest birds. The proportion of old forest within the reserves was the main factor in explaining the bird community composition, and the bird communities within the reserves did not strongly depend on the quality of the matrix. Yet, in line with the homogenization theory, the beta‐diversity within reserves embedded in low‐quality matrix was lower than that in high‐quality matrix, and the average abundance of regionally abundant species was higher. Influence of habitat quality on bird community composition was largely explained by the species' functional traits. Most importantly, the community specialization index was low, and average body size was high in areas with low proportion of old forest. We conclude that for conserving local bird communities in northern Finnish protected forests, it is currently more important to improve or maintain habitat quality within the reserves than in the surrounding matrix. Nevertheless, we found signals of bird community homogenization, and thus, activities that decrease the quality of the matrix are a threat for bird communities.  相似文献   

9.
Questions: (1) Is climate a strong driver of vegetation dynamics, including interannual variation, in a range margin steppic community? (2) Are there long‐term trends in cover and species richness in this community, and are these consistent across species groups and species within groups? (3) Can long‐term trends in plant community data be related to variation in local climate over the last three decades? Location: A range margin steppic grassland community in central Germany. Methods: Cover, number and size of all individuals of all plant species present in three permanent 1‐m2 plots were recorded in spring for 26 years (1980–2005). Climatic data for the study area were used to determine the best climatic predictor for each plant community, functional group and species variable (annual data and interannual variation) using best subsets regression. Results: April and autumn temperature showed the highest correlation with total cover and species richness and with interannual variations of cover and richness. However, key climate drivers differed between the five most abundant species. Similarly, total cover and number and cover of perennials significantly decreased over time, while no trend was found for the cover and number of annuals. However, within functional groups there were also contrasting species‐specific responses. Long‐term temperature increases and high interannual variability in both temperature and precipitation were strongly related to long‐term trends and interannual variations in plant community data. Conclusions: Temporal trends in vegetation were strongly associated with temporal trends in climate at the study site, with key roles for autumn and spring temperature and precipitation. Dynamics of functional groups and species within groups and their relationships to changes in temperature and precipitation reveal complex long‐term and interannual patterns that cannot be inferred from short‐term studies with only one or a few individual species. Our results also highlight that responses detected at the functional group level may mask contrasting responses within functional groups. We discuss the implications of these findings for attempts to predict the future response of biodiversity to climate change.  相似文献   

10.
In Australia, the role of noisy miners Manorina melanocephala in biotic homogenization of the avifauna has been well established in modified landscapes, and is listed as a threatening process under national conservation legislation. However, less is known about the effect of the congeneric and more widely distributed yellow‐throated miner, M. flavigula. In this paper we investigate the relative roles of habitat loss and increased dominance by the yellow‐throated miner in avian homogenization and species functional group decline. We examined bird community data collected from 368 woodland sites across three bioregions. For each site there was a local and a landscape scale measure of remnant vegetation cover. We used both multivariate and regression analysis to test the relative influence of yellow‐throated miner abundance and vegetation on bird community composition. There was clear compositional change and homogenization of the avifauna where yellow‐throated miners were present and vegetation cover was low. The abundance of 40 bird species was predicted by combinations of vegetation cover or yellow‐throated miner abundance, and 31 of these regressions included the term yellow‐throated miner. Of these, there was a negative relationship with 23 species, and 19 of these were insectivores or nectarivores. We postulate that the combination of clearing and yellow‐throated miner abundance can interact to disrupt the ecological function of woodlands, by the depletion of insect‐ and nectar‐feeding species and the disturbance to mixed feeding flocks. We propose future research objectives that include a continental‐scale analysis of the determinants of yellow‐throated miner overabundance, the numerical and geographical thresholds of their potential impacts, and the ecological consequences on both avifauna and the woodlands they inhabit.  相似文献   

11.
We examined long‐term responses of an Amazonian bird assemblage to wildfire disturbance, investigating how understory birds reacted to forest regeneration 1, 3, and 10 years after a widespread fire event. The bird community was sampled along the Arapiuns and Maró river catchments in central Brazilian Amazonia. Sampling took place in 1998, 2000, and 2008 using mist‐nets in eight plots (four burned, four unburned sites). Species richness did not change significantly in unburned sites. In burned sites, however, we found significantly lower richness in 1998, higher richness in 2000, and similar richness in 2008. Multi‐dimensional scaling ordination showed consistent differences in bird communities both within burned sites sampled in different sampling years, and between burned and unburned sites in all years. Of the 30 most abundant species, 12 had not recovered 10 years after the fires, including habitat specialists such as mixed flocks specialists and ant‐followers. Fire‐disturbance favored three species (two hummingbirds and a manakin) in the short term only. All other species were either favored throughout the study (seven species of omnivores and small insectivores) or did not show a clear response (eight species). In burned sites, we also found significantly lower abundance of species sensitive to disturbances and habitat specialists over the entire study period. Although the bird community seems to be recovering in terms of richness, the overall community composition and abundance of some species in post‐burned and unburned sites remain very different, and have not recovered after 10 years of forest regeneration.  相似文献   

12.
Few studies have explicitly examined avian community structure in the North American northern boreal forest Herein we report upon the results of bird surveys in mature stands of boreal forest in the Great Clay Belt Ontario. Canada We related trends in avian community structure and individual bird species abundance to two environmental gradients described in a landbase classification scheme called the Forest Ecosystem Classification a moisture and a nutrient-richness gradient Variation in environmental characteristics is limited in the Ontario Clay Belt and this was reflected in short environmental gradient lengths However major trends in avian community structure were strongly associated with the nutrient-richness gradient axis summarized by this scheme Analyses of avian community composition indicated a continuum from moist coniferous habitats to drier aspen-dominated mixed woodlands with several bird species occurring in varying abundances across the width of both gradients 48 of the 58 species examined showed statistically significant associations with at least one of the two multivariate gradient axes A smaller proportion of short-distance migrant species were associated with these gradients than were species in either the neotropical migrant or resident categories We used a multivariate variable (habitat breadth) to compare degree of habitat specialization across different migratory groups A large proportion of neotropical migrants showed a high degree of habitat specialization m mature Clay Belt forests, and neotropical species with small habitat breadths were more commonly associated with habitats dominated by broad-leaved deciduous tree species than either short-distance or permanent resident species We discuss our findings in relation to the post-glacial history of the Clay Belt region  相似文献   

13.
What determines the stability of communities under environmental fluctuations remains one of the most debated questions in ecology. Scholars generally agree that the similarity in year‐to‐year fluctuations between species is an important determinant of this stability. Concordant fluctuations in species abundances through time (synchrony) decrease stability while discordance in fluctuations (anti‐synchrony) should stabilize communities. Researchers have interpreted the community‐wide degree of synchrony in temporal fluctuations as the outcome of different processes. However, existing synchrony measures depend not only on year‐to‐year species fluctuations, but also on long‐term directional trends in species composition, for example due to land‐use or climate change. The neglected effect of directional trends in species composition could cause an apparent increase in synchrony that is not due to year‐to‐year fluctuations, as species that simultaneously increase (or decrease) in abundance over time will appear correlated, even if they fluctuate discordantly from year to year. The opposite pattern is also conceivable, where different species show contrasting trends in their abundances, thus overestimating year‐to‐year anti‐synchrony. Therefore, trends in species composition may limit our understanding of potential ecological mechanisms behind synchrony between species. We propose two easily implementable solutions, with corresponding R functions, for testing and accounting for the effect of trends in species composition on overall synchrony. The first approach is based on computing synchrony over the residuals of fitted species trends over time. The second approach, applicable to already existing indices, is based on three‐terms local variance, i.e. computing variance over three‐years‐long, movable windows. We demonstrate these methods using simulations and data from real plant communities under long‐term directional changes, discussing when one approach can be preferred. We show that accounting for long‐term temporal trends is necessary and that separation of effect of trends and year‐to‐year fluctuation provides a better understanding of ecological mechanisms and their connections with ecological theory.  相似文献   

14.
Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal communities covary with host plant communities along soil fertility gradients, yet it is unclear whether this reflects changes in host composition, fungal edaphic specialization or priority effects during fungal community establishment. We grew two co‐occurring ECM plant species (to control for host identity) in soils collected along a 2‐million‐year chronosequence representing a strong soil fertility gradient and used soil manipulations to disentangle the effects of edaphic properties from those due to fungal inoculum. Ectomycorrhizal fungal community composition changed and richness declined with increasing soil age; these changes were linked to pedogenesis‐driven shifts in edaphic properties, particularly pH and resin‐exchangeable and organic phosphorus. However, when differences in inoculum potential or soil abiotic properties among soil ages were removed while host identity was held constant, differences in ECM fungal communities and richness among chronosequence stages disappeared. Our results show that ECM fungal communities strongly vary during long‐term ecosystem development, even within the same hosts. However, these changes could not be attributed to short‐term fungal edaphic specialization or differences in fungal inoculum (i.e. density and composition) alone. Rather, they must reflect longer‐term ecosystem‐level feedback between soil, vegetation and ECM fungi during pedogenesis.  相似文献   

15.
In this paper, we tested whether the spatial distribution of a given species in more or less fragmented and disturbed landscapes depends on the species habitat specialization. We studied 891 spatial replicates from the French Breeding Bird Survey (FBBS) monitored at least two years during 2001–2005, and two independent landscape databases measuring respectively landscape fragmentation and recent landscape disturbance on each FBBS replicate. We used a continuous habitat specialization index for the 105 most common bird species monitored by the FBBS. We further modelled the spatial variation in abundance of each species according to fragmentation and disturbance across FBBS replicates, accounting for habitat differences and spatial trends. We then tested whether more or less specialized species responded to landscape fragmentation and disturbance. We found that the more specialist a species, the more negative its spatial response to landscape fragmentation and disturbance. Although there was a very high variation around these tendencies indicating that there are many other drivers of species distribution, our results suggest that measuring specialization may be helpful in predicting which species are likely to thrive in human degraded landscapes. We also emphasize the need to consider both positive and negative species responses when assessing consequences of habitat change in communities.  相似文献   

16.
In the Peruvian Amazon, white‐sand forests are patchily distributed and restricted to a few localities in the North. Although recent studies have documented patterns of habitat specialization by plants in these unique forests, very few studies of the fauna of these habitats have been conducted. The species composition of the avifauna of the white‐sand forests at six localities in the region was sampled by conducting transects and point counts. Surrounding habitats were also sampled to compare avifaunal communities and to determine the degree of restriction of bird species to white‐sand habitats. Non‐metric multidimensional scaling analysis showed that bird communities of white‐sand forests were more similar to each other than they were to terra firme or flooded forest communities. Sites on either side of the Amazon‐Marañón barrier were the most similar within habitat type consistent with the hypothesis that these rivers represent a major biogeographic barrier. Twenty‐six species, belonging to 13 families, were to some degree specialized to white‐sand forests. This is the first comprehensive ornithological assessment carried out on these habitats in Peru. The high degree of habitat specialization found in these 26 bird species highlights the need for conservation and management measures that will protect white‐sand forests.  相似文献   

17.
Aim  Worldwide, functional homogenization is now considered to be one of the most prominent forms of biotic impoverishment induced by current global changes. Yet this process has hardly been quantified on a large scale through simple indices, and the connection between landscape disturbance and functional homogenization has hardly been established. Here we test whether changes in land use and landscape fragmentation are associated with functional homogenization of bird communities at a national scale.
Location  France.
Methods  We estimated functional homogenization of a community as the average specialization of the species present in that community. We studied the spatial variation of this community specialization index (CSI) using 1028 replicates from the French Breeding Bird Survey along spatial gradients of landscape fragmentation and recent landscape disturbance, measured independently, and accounting for spatial autocorrelation.
Results  The CSI was very sensitive to both measures of environmental degradation: on average, 23% of the difference in the CSI values between two sample sites was attributed to the difference in fragmentation and the disturbance between sites. This negative correlation between CSI and sources of landscape degradation was consistent over various habitats and biogeographical zones.
Main conclusions  We demonstrate that the functional homogenization of bird communities is strongly positively correlated to landscape disturbance and fragmentation. We suggest that the CSI is particularly effective for measuring functional homogenization on both local and global scales for any sort of organism and with abundance or presence–absence data.  相似文献   

18.
While habitat transformation driven by human activities is the main driver of current biodiversity changes, there is still no framework to explore and forecast the effects of different types of habitat changes on the richness and composition of biological communities. To tackle this issue, we modeled the dynamics of a regional meta‐community, composed either of ecologically equivalent species (neutral model) or of generalist and specialist species (specialization model), and explored the impact of the overall reduction, patch conversion or alteration of an original habitat into one or several other habitats of different total carrying capacity on the community metrics at equilibrium. Our simulations reveal strong interactions between the community model considered (neutral or specialization model) and the type of habitat change. Under neutrality, the impact of habitat changes on richness can be approached by a power law species–individual relationship (SIR), which may at constant density be simplified into the widely used power law species–area relationship (SAR), independent of the type of change. However, in the presence of generalist and specialist species, we found that 1) while habitat reduction in area also leads to approximately power law SIRs and SARs, 2) patch conversion and alteration have more complex effects on regional species richness, and 3) habitat alteration elicits the functional homogenization of communities, involving a decrease of their average level of specialization.  相似文献   

19.
Humans are changing the biosphere by exerting pressure on land via different land uses with variable intensities. Quantifying the relative importance of the land‐use composition and intensity for communities may provide valuable insights for understanding community dynamics in human‐dominated landscapes. Here, we evaluate the relative importance of the land‐use composition versus land‐use intensity on the bird community structure in the highly human‐dominated region surrounding Paris, France. The land‐use composition was calculated from a land cover map, whereas the land‐use intensity (reverse intensity) was represented by the primary productivity remaining after human appropriation (NPPremaining), which was estimated using remote sensing imagery. We used variance partitioning to evaluate the relative importance of the land‐use composition versus intensity for explaining bird community species richness, total abundance, trophic levels, and habitat specialization in urban, farmland, and woodland habitats. The land‐use composition and intensity affected specialization and richness more than trophic levels and abundance. The importance of the land‐use intensity was slightly higher than that of the composition for richness, specialization, and trophic levels in farmland and urban areas, while the land‐use composition was a stronger predictor of abundance. The intensity contributed more to the community indices in anthropogenic habitats (farmland and urban areas) than to those in woodlands. Richness, trophic levels, and specialization in woodlands tended to increase with the NPPremaining value. The heterogeneity of land uses and intensity levels in the landscape consistently promoted species richness but reduced habitat specialization and trophic levels. This study demonstrates the complementarity of NPPremaining to the land‐use composition for understanding community structure in anthropogenic landscapes. Our results show, for the first time, that the productivity remaining after human appropriation is a determinant driver of animal community patterns, independent of the type of land use.  相似文献   

20.
Understanding why populations of some migratory species show a directional change over time, i.e. increase or decrease, while others do not, remains a challenge for ecological research. One possible explanation is that species with smaller non‐breeding ranges may have more pronounced directional population trends, and their populations are thus more sensitive to the variation in environmental conditions in their non‐breeding quarters. According to the serial residency hypothesis, this sensitivity should lead to higher magnitudes (i.e. absolute values) of population trends for species with smaller non‐breeding ranges, with the direction of trend being either positive or negative depending on the nature of the environmental change. We tested this hypothesis using population trends over 2001–2012 for 36 sub‐Saharan migratory passerine birds breeding in Europe. Namely, we related the magnitude of the species' population trends to the size of their sub‐Saharan non‐breeding grounds, whilst controlling for factors including number of migration routes, non‐breeding habitat niche and wetness, breeding habitat type and life‐history strategy. The magnitude of species' population trends grew with decreasing absolute size of sub‐Saharan non‐breeding ranges, and this result remained significant when non‐breeding range size was expressed relative to the size of the breeding range. After repeating the analysis with the trend direction, the relationship with the non‐breeding range size disappeared, indicating that both population decreases and increases are frequent amongst species with small non‐breeding range sizes. Therefore, species with small non‐breeding ranges are at a higher risk of population decline due to adverse factors such as habitat loss or climatic extremes, but their populations are also more likely to increase when suitable conditions appear. As non‐breeding ranges may originate from stochasticity of non‐breeding site selection in naive birds (‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis), it is crucial to maintain a network of stable and resilient habitats over large areas of birds’ non‐breeding quarters.  相似文献   

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