Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land‐use patterns: an analysis of the 1975–2006 period

Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975–1996 and 1996–2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium‐resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land‐use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960–2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land‐use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land‐use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land‐use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center‐western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification.     

Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land‐use legacies

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land‐use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land‐use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait‐based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land‐use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions.     

CO2 emissions from land‐use change affected more by nitrogen cycle,than by the choice of land‐cover data

The high uncertainty in land‐based CO₂ fluxes estimates is thought to be mainly due to uncertainty in not only quantifying historical changes among forests, croplands, and grassland, but also due to different processes included in calculation methods. Inclusion of a nitrogen (N) cycle in models is fairly recent and strongly affects carbon (C) fluxes. In this study, for the first time, we use a model with C and N dynamics with three distinct historical reconstructions of land‐use and land‐use change (LULUC) to quantify LULUC emissions and uncertainty that includes the integrated effects of not only climate and CO₂ but also N. The modeled global average emissions including N dynamics for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2005 were 1.8 ± 0.2, 1.7 ± 0.2, and 1.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr^?1, respectively, (mean and range across LULUC data sets). The emissions from tropics were 0.8 ± 0.2, 0.8 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.3 GtC yr^?1, and the non tropics were 1.1 ± 0.5, 0.9 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr^?1. Compared to previous studies that did not include N dynamics, modeled net LULUC emissions were higher, particularly in the non tropics. In the model, N limitation reduces regrowth rates of vegetation in temperate areas resulting in higher net emissions. Our results indicate that exclusion of N dynamics leads to an underestimation of LULUC emissions by around 70% in the non tropics, 10% in the tropics, and 40% globally in the 1990s. The differences due to inclusion/exclusion of the N cycle of 0.1 GtC yr^?1 in the tropics, 0.6 GtC yr^?1 in the non tropics, and 0.7 GtC yr^?1 globally (mean across land‐cover data sets) in the 1990s were greater than differences due to the land‐cover data in the non tropics and globally (0.2 GtC yr^?1). While land‐cover information is improving with satellite and inventory data, this study indicates the importance of accounting for different processes, in particular the N cycle.     

The effects of land use and climate change on the carbon cycle of Europe over the past 500 years

The long residence time of carbon in forests and soils means that both the current state and future behavior of the terrestrial biosphere are influenced by past variability in climate and anthropogenic land use. Over the last half‐millennium, European terrestrial ecosystems were affected by the cool temperatures of the Little Ice Age, rising CO₂ concentrations, and human induced deforestation and land abandonment. To quantify the importance of these processes, we performed a series of simulations with the LPJ dynamic vegetation model driven by reconstructed climate, land use, and CO₂ concentrations. Although land use change was the major control on the carbon inventory of Europe over the last 500 years, the current state of the terrestrial biosphere is largely controlled by land use change during the past century. Between 1500 and 2000, climate variability led to temporary sequestration events of up to 3 Pg, whereas increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the 20th century led to an increase in carbon storage of up to 15 Pg. Anthropogenic land use caused between 25 Pg of carbon emissions and 5 Pg of uptake over the same time period, depending on the historical and spatial pattern of past land use and the timing of the reversal from deforestation to afforestation during the last two centuries. None of the currently existing anthropogenic land use change datasets adequately capture the timing of the forest transition in most European countries as recorded in historical observations. Despite considerable uncertainty, our scenarios indicate that with limited management, extant European forests have the potential to absorb between 5 and 12 Pg of carbon at the present day.     

The effects of climate change and land‐use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land‐use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.     

Effect of agricultural land‐use change on the structure of a temperate forest ant–plant interaction network

Studies on the responses of ant–plant interactions to land‐use change have mainly focused on tropical habitats, usually without considering the impacts on the structure of interaction networks. Here we show that land‐use modifies the structure of the ant–plant interaction networks in a temperate habitat. Ant–plant interactions and plant diversity were recorded in an oak forest and agricultural land in central Mexico. We registered five ant species in the oak forest, and four ant species in the agricultural land. Plant diversity was higher in the agricultural land than in the oak forest. In the ant–plant networks of both sites, our results showed a higher dependence of ants on the plants on which they feed than vice versa, and the ants Formica spp. and the plants Barkleyanthus salicifolius were the species with the most strength and greatest influence in the network structure. The ant–plant network in the oak forest showed a nested structure. However, the network at the agricultural land site showed non‐nestedness; the identity of both ants and plants with the highest values of specialization was different and the number of ant species in the network was decreased, but the number of plant species with which they interacted significantly increased. Both ant–plant networks were equally tolerant to simulated extinction of individual species. We conclude that temperate forest ant–plant networks can be inherently fragile and susceptible to the effects of agricultural land‐use change, not on the number of interacting species but on their identity.     

High‐resolution spatial modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change to energy crops in the United Kingdom

We implemented a spatial application of a previously evaluated model of soil GHG emissions, ECOSSE, in the United Kingdom to examine the impacts to 2050 of land‐use transitions from existing land use, rotational cropland, permanent grassland or woodland, to six bioenergy crops; three ‘first‐generation’ energy crops: oilseed rape, wheat and sugar beet, and three ‘second‐generation’ energy crops: Miscanthus, short rotation coppice willow (SRC) and short rotation forestry poplar (SRF). Conversion of rotational crops to Miscanthus, SRC and SRF and conversion of permanent grass to SRF show beneficial changes in soil GHG balance over a significant area. Conversion of permanent grass to Miscanthus, permanent grass to SRF and forest to SRF shows detrimental changes in soil GHG balance over a significant area. Conversion of permanent grass to wheat, oilseed rape, sugar beet and SRC and all conversions from forest show large detrimental changes in soil GHG balance over most of the United Kingdom, largely due to moving from uncultivated soil to regular cultivation. Differences in net GHG emissions between climate scenarios to 2050 were not significant. Overall, SRF offers the greatest beneficial impact on soil GHG balance. These results provide one criterion for selection of bioenergy crops and do not consider GHG emission increases/decreases resulting from displaced food production, bio‐physical factors (e.g. the energy density of the crop) and socio‐economic factors (e.g. expenditure on harvesting equipment). Given that the soil GHG balance is dominated by change in soil organic carbon (SOC) with the difference among Miscanthus, SRC and SRF largely determined by yield, a target for management of perennial energy crops is to achieve the best possible yield using the most appropriate energy crop and cultivar for the local situation.     

The influence of time,soil characteristics,and land‐use history on soil phosphorus legacies: a global meta‐analysis

Agriculturally driven changes in soil phosphorus (P) are known to have persistent effects on local ecosystem structure and function, but regional patterns of soil P recovery following cessation of agriculture are less well understood. We synthesized data from 94 published studies to assess evidence of these land‐use legacies throughout the world by comparing soil labile and total P content in abandoned agricultural areas to that of reference ecosystems or sites remaining in agriculture. Our meta‐analysis shows that soil P content was typically elevated after abandonment compared to reference levels, but reduced compared to soils that remained under agriculture. There were more pronounced differences in the legacies of past agriculture on soil P across regions than between the types of land use practiced prior to abandonment (cropland, pasture, or forage grassland). However, consistent patterns of soil P enrichment or depletion according to soil order and types of post‐agricultural vegetation suggest that these factors may mediate agricultural legacies on soil P. We also used mixed effects models to examine the role of multiple variables on soil P recovery following agriculture. Time since cessation of agriculture was highly influential on soil P legacies, with clear reductions in the degree of labile and total P enrichment relative to reference ecosystems over time. Soil characteristics (clay content and pH) were strongly related to changes in labile P compared to reference sites, but these were relatively unimportant for total P. The duration of past agricultural use and climate were weakly related to changes in total P only. Our finding of reductions in the degree of soil P alteration over time relative to reference conditions reveals the potential to mitigate these land‐use legacies in some soils. Better ability to predict dynamics of soil nutrient recovery after termination of agricultural use is essential to ecosystem management following land‐use change.     

Effects of land‐use change and rainfall in Sudano‐Sahelian West Africa on the diet and nestling growth rates of an avian predator

Raptor populations in Sudano‐Sahelian West Africa are being severely affected by widespread habitat alteration which depletes prey populations, potentially aggravated by changing rainfall patterns. We studied Grasshopper Buzzards Butastur rufipennis at nests in natural and transformed habitats in the Sudano‐Sahelian region of northern Cameroon to assess the effects of habitat transformation and rainfall on nestling diet and growth. Grasshoppers and small mammals were more frequently taken in natural habitat, whereas lizards were most frequently taken in transformed habitats. These dietary differences reflected differences in prey availability around nests in natural and transformed habitats. Land use was a significant predictor of asymptotic weight: nestlings in natural habitat attained a higher mass than those in transformed habitats, when potentially confounding variables such as hatch order, gender, hatch date, rainfall or the presence of siblings were taken into consideration. These results suggest that body condition at fledging was habitat‐dependent, with potential consequences for subsequent survival. However, we recorded no differences in caloric content of food delivered to nests in natural and transformed habitat, which was possibly related to prey caught during twilight hours. There was a positive relationship between precipitation levels during the nestling phase and nestling growth rate. We predict unfavourable future conditions for nestling growth of raptors in Sudano‐Sahelian savannas as a consequence of continued widespread habitat transformation and diminished rainfall.     

Impacts of human activity and climate change on the distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys in China during the past 2000 years

Aim

In this article, we analysed two millennia of historical records and environmental information to reconstruct the past distribution and examine the current distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus) in China.

Location

China.

Methods

We applied trend surface analysis (TSA) to document patterns of range shifting in snub‐nosed monkeys over time. Random forest was used to study the association between explanatory variables and changes in the distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys over the past 2000 years.

Results

Our results showed that both the longitude and latitude of snub‐nosed monkeys contracted from 0 to 2000 AD. We found that the integrated effects of human population size and changes in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere resulted in a westward and northward contraction of the snub‐nosed monkey distributional range. However, the impact of fluctuating temperature was greatest during periods of low human population density (0–1200 AD), whereas from 1200 to 2000 AD, marked increases in human population size in China leading to extensive deforestation, agricultural expansion, hunting, logging and land terracing have had the greatest negative effects. Further analyses highlighted the fact that the rapid expansion of human population density in regions occupied by snub‐nosed monkeys between 1700 and 2000 has resulted in the recent extirpation of this primate radiation in eastern, south‐eastern and central China.

Main conclusions

We examined the interactive effects of human population growth, deforestation, agricultural expansion and climate variation on the past and current distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys. Our data provide clear evidence that climate change, human population increase and human activities have differentially affected the viability and distribution of snub‐nosed monkey populations over time. In particular, the marked expansion of the human population in China over the past 300 years has resulted in the extinction of Rhinopithecus populations across much of its range.     

Relative importance of the land‐use composition and intensity for the bird community composition in anthropogenic landscapes

Humans are changing the biosphere by exerting pressure on land via different land uses with variable intensities. Quantifying the relative importance of the land‐use composition and intensity for communities may provide valuable insights for understanding community dynamics in human‐dominated landscapes. Here, we evaluate the relative importance of the land‐use composition versus land‐use intensity on the bird community structure in the highly human‐dominated region surrounding Paris, France. The land‐use composition was calculated from a land cover map, whereas the land‐use intensity (reverse intensity) was represented by the primary productivity remaining after human appropriation (NPP_remaining), which was estimated using remote sensing imagery. We used variance partitioning to evaluate the relative importance of the land‐use composition versus intensity for explaining bird community species richness, total abundance, trophic levels, and habitat specialization in urban, farmland, and woodland habitats. The land‐use composition and intensity affected specialization and richness more than trophic levels and abundance. The importance of the land‐use intensity was slightly higher than that of the composition for richness, specialization, and trophic levels in farmland and urban areas, while the land‐use composition was a stronger predictor of abundance. The intensity contributed more to the community indices in anthropogenic habitats (farmland and urban areas) than to those in woodlands. Richness, trophic levels, and specialization in woodlands tended to increase with the NPP_remaining value. The heterogeneity of land uses and intensity levels in the landscape consistently promoted species richness but reduced habitat specialization and trophic levels. This study demonstrates the complementarity of NPP_remaining to the land‐use composition for understanding community structure in anthropogenic landscapes. Our results show, for the first time, that the productivity remaining after human appropriation is a determinant driver of animal community patterns, independent of the type of land use.     

Temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon after land‐use change in the temperate zone – carbon response functions as a model approach

Land‐use change (LUC) is a major driving factor for the balance of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the global carbon cycle. The temporal dynamic of SOC after LUC is especially important in temperate systems with a long reaction time. On the basis of 95 compiled studies covering 322 sites in the temperate zone, carbon response functions (CRFs) were derived to model the temporal dynamic of SOC after five different LUC types (mean soil depth of 30±6 cm). Grassland establishment caused a long lasting carbon sink with a relative stock change of 128±23% and afforestation on former cropland a sink of 116±54%, 100 years after LUC (mean±95% confidence interval). No new equilibrium was reached within 120 years. In contrast, there was no SOC sink following afforestation of grasslands and 75% of all observations showed SOC losses, even after 100 years. Only in the forest floor, there was carbon accumulation of 0.38±0.04 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 in afforestations adding up to 38±4 Mg ha^?1 labile carbon after 100 years. Carbon loss after deforestation (?32±20%) and grassland conversion to cropland (?36±5%), was rapid with a new SOC equilibrium being reached after 23 and 17 years, respectively. The change rate of SOC increased with temperature and precipitation but decreased with soil depth and clay content. Subsoil SOC changes followed the trend of the topsoil SOC changes but were smaller (25±5% of the total SOC changes) and with a high uncertainty due to a limited number of datasets. As a simple and robust model approach, the developed CRFs provide an easily applicable tool to estimate SOC stock changes after LUC to improve greenhouse gas reporting in the framework of UNFCCC.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

Trait variations of ground flora species disentangle the effects of global change and altered land‐use in Swedish forests during 20 years

Northern forest ecosystems are exposed to a range of anthropogenic processes including global warming, atmospheric deposition, and changing land‐use. The vegetation of northern forests is composed of species with several functional traits related to these processes, whose effects may be difficult to disentangle. Here, we combined analyses of spatio‐temporal dynamics and functional traits of ground flora species, including morphological characteristics, responses to macro‐ and microclimate, soil conditions, and disturbance. Based on data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, we compared changes in occurrence of a large number of ground flora species during a 20‐year period (1994–2013) in boreal and temperate Sweden respectively. Our results show that a majority of the common ground flora species have changed their overall frequency. Comparisons of functional traits between increasing and declining species, and of trends in mean trait values of sample plots, indicate that current floristic changes are caused by combined effects of climate warming, nitrogen deposition and changing land‐use. Changes and their relations with plant traits were generally larger in temperate southern Sweden. Nutrient‐demanding species with mesotrophic morphology were favored by ongoing eutrophication due to nitrogen deposition in the temperate zone, while dwarf shrubs with low demands on nitrogen decreased in frequency. An increase of species with less northern and less eastern distribution limits was also restricted to temperate Sweden, and indicates effects of a moister and milder macroclimate. A trend toward dense plantation forests is mirrored by a decrease of light‐demanding species in both vegetation zones, and a decrease of grassland species in the temperate zone. Although denser tree canopies may buffer effects of a warmer climate and of nitrogen deposition to some extent, traits related to these processes were weakly correlated in the group of species with changing frequency. Hence, our results indicate specific effects of these often confounded anthropogenic processes.     

Agricultural peatland restoration: effects of land‐use change on greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta

Agricultural drainage of organic soils has resulted in vast soil subsidence and contributed to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. The Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta in California was drained over a century ago for agriculture and human settlement and has since experienced subsidence rates that are among the highest in the world. It is recognized that drained agriculture in the Delta is unsustainable in the long‐term, and to help reverse subsidence and capture carbon (C) there is an interest in restoring drained agricultural land‐use types to flooded conditions. However, flooding may increase methane (CH₄) emissions. We conducted a full year of simultaneous eddy covariance measurements at two conventional drained agricultural peatlands (a pasture and a corn field) and three flooded land‐use types (a rice paddy and two restored wetlands) to assess the impact of drained to flooded land‐use change on CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes in the Delta. We found that the drained sites were net C and greenhouse gas (GHG) sources, releasing up to 341 g C m^?2 yr^?1 as CO₂ and 11.4 g C m^?2 yr^?1 as CH₄. Conversely, the restored wetlands were net sinks of atmospheric CO₂, sequestering up to 397 g C m^?2 yr^?1. However, they were large sources of CH₄, with emissions ranging from 39 to 53 g C m^?2 yr^?1. In terms of the full GHG budget, the restored wetlands could be either GHG sources or sinks. Although the rice paddy was a small atmospheric CO₂ sink, when considering harvest and CH₄ emissions, it acted as both a C and GHG source. Annual photosynthesis was similar between sites, but flooding at the restored sites inhibited ecosystem respiration, making them net CO₂ sinks. This study suggests that converting drained agricultural peat soils to flooded land‐use types can help reduce or reverse soil subsidence and reduce GHG emissions.     

Simulation of greenhouse gases following land‐use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model: a comparison between site measurements and model predictions

This article evaluates the suitability of the ECOSSE model to estimate soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from short rotation coppice willow (SRC‐Willow), short rotation forestry (SRF‐Scots Pine) and Miscanthus after land‐use change from conventional systems (grassland and arable). We simulate heterotrophic respiration (R_h), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) fluxes at four paired sites in the UK and compare them to estimates of R_h derived from the ecosystem respiration estimated from eddy covariance (EC) and R_h estimated from chamber (IRGA) measurements, as well as direct measurements of N₂O and CH₄ fluxes. Significant association between modelled and EC‐derived R_h was found under Miscanthus, with correlation coefficient (r) ranging between 0.54 and 0.70. Association between IRGA‐derived R_h and modelled outputs was statistically significant at the Aberystwyth site (r = 0.64), but not significant at the Lincolnshire site (r = 0.29). At all SRC‐Willow sites, significant association was found between modelled and measurement‐derived R_h (0.44 ≤ r ≤ 0.77); significant error was found only for the EC‐derived R_h at the Lincolnshire site. Significant association and no significant error were also found for SRF‐Scots Pine and perennial grass. For the arable fields, the modelled CO₂ correlated well just with the IRGA‐derived R_h at one site (r = 0.75). No bias in the model was found at any site, regardless of the measurement type used for the model evaluation. Across all land uses, fluxes of CH₄ and N₂O were shown to represent a small proportion of the total GHG balance; these fluxes have been modelled adequately on a monthly time‐step. This study provides confidence in using ECOSSE for predicting the impacts of future land use on GHG balance, at site level as well as at national level.