Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

Background and Aims

Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization.

Methods

Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function.

Key Results

Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity.

Conclusions

For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single host tree, but local processes are equally important to understand epiphyte population dynamics.     

Mark–recapture on large spatial scale reveals long distance dispersal in the Marsh Fritillary,Euphydryas aurinia

1. Long distance dispersal (LDD), or movements far beyond the occupied habitat borders, maintains the integrity of metapopulations in fragmented landscapes. Recent studies on butterflies increasingly reveal that LDD exists even in species that were long regarded as sedentary. Mark–recapture (MR) studies covering larger study areas typically reveal movements among distant colonies. 2. We studied dispersal of the EU‐protected, regionally endangered Euphydryas aurinia Rottemburg butterfly in the Czech Republic, using two complementary MR approaches. The single system study was carried out for eight seasons within 30 habitat patches covering 28 ha. The multiple populations study was carried out for a single season, but covering almost all Czech colonies of the species (82 colonies, 110 distinct patches, total area 324 ha within ca 1500 km²). 3. Single system mean lifetime movements were consistently higher for males, but slopes of dispersal kernel power functions were shallower for females, implying that higher proportions of females crossed distances of several kilometres. 4. The multiple populations study allowed detection of 51 lifetime movements exceeding 5 km (41 males, 10 females) and 14 movements exceeding 10 km (13 males, 1 female). Both mean lifetime movements and slopes of the dispersal kernels varied among systems, with no consistent pattern between sexes. All Czech Republic populations are within 0.1% movement probability of both sexes, whereas 1% movement probability delimits three separate management units. 5. Dispersal predictions from local data underestimate total mobility, warning against the use of local MR data for extrapolating long‐distance movements. Local dispersal data, however, remain useful for analysing finer details of insect mobility.     

Between‐patch natal dispersal declines with increasing natal patch size and distance to other patches in the endangered Southern Dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii

Natal dispersal has profound consequences for populations through the movement of individuals and genes. Habitat fragmentation reduces structural connectivity by decreasing patch size and increasing isolation, but understanding of how this impacts dispersal and the functional connectivity of landscapes is limited because many studies are constrained by the size of the study areas or sample sizes to accurately capture natal dispersal. We quantified natal dispersal probability and natal dispersal distances in a small migratory shorebird, the Southern Dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii, with data from two extensively monitored endangered metapopulations breeding in Sweden and Finland. In both metapopulations philopatry was strong, with individuals returning to or close to their natal patches more often than expected by chance, consistent with the patchy distribution of their breeding habitat. Dispersal probabilities were lower and dispersal distances were shorter in Sweden. These results provide a plausible explanation for the observed inbreeding and population decline of the Swedish population. The differences between Sweden and Finland were explained by patch‐specific differences. Between‐patch dispersal decreased with increasing natal patch size and distance to other patches. Our results suggest that reduced connectivity reduces movements of the philopatric Dunlin, making it vulnerable to the effects of inbreeding. Increasing connectivity between patches should thus be one of the main goals when planning future management. This may be facilitated by creating a network of suitably sized patches (20–100 ha), no more than 20 km apart from each other, from existing active patches that may work as stepping stones for movement, and by increasing nest success and pre‐fledging survival in small patches.     

Multiscale patterns of movement in fragmented landscapes and consequences on demography of the snail kite in Florida

1. Habitat loss and fragmentation are major factors affecting vertebrate populations. A major effect of these habitat alterations is that they reduce movement of organisms. Despite the accepted importance of movement in driving the dynamics of many natural populations, movement of vertebrates in fragmented landscapes have seldom been estimated with robust statistical methods. 2. We estimated movement probabilities of snail kites Rosthramus sociabilis within the remaining wetlands in Florida. Using both radio-telemetry and banding information, we used a multistate modelling approach to estimate transition probabilities at two temporal scales (month; year) and multiple spatial scales. We examined kite movement among wetlands altered by three different levels of fragmentation: among wetlands separated by small physical barriers (e.g. road); among wetlands separated by moderate amount of matrix (< 5 km); and among wetlands separated by extensive matrix areas (> 15 km). 3. Kites moved extensively among contiguous wetlands (movement probability 0.29 per month), but significantly less among isolated wetlands (movement probability 0.10 per month). 4. Kites showed high levels of annual site fidelity to most isolated wetlands (probability ranged from 0.72 to 0.95 per year). 5. We tested the effects of patch size and interpatch distance on movement. Our modelling indicated an effect of both distance and patch size on juveniles' movement (but not adult) when examining movements among fragments. 6. Only a small proportion of kites escaped a regional drought by moving to refugia (wetlands less affected by drought). Many individuals died after the drought. During drought adult survival dropped by 16% while juvenile survival dropped by 86% (possibly because juveniles were less likely to reach refugia). 7. We hypothesize that fragmentation may decrease kite's resistance to drought by restricting exploratory behaviour.     

Maintenance of the sexes and persistence of a clonal organism in spatially complex metapopulations

Clonal organisms persist at a range of population sex ratios, from equal numbers of males and females to single-sex systems. When intersexual competition is strong enough to drive one sex locally extinct, the maintenance of the sexes is facilitated by the semi-independent dynamics of populations within a metapopulation. These semi-independent dynamics are influenced by dispersal and recolonization rates, which are affected by the spatial arrangement of populations. To establish the quantitative relationship between spatially complex metapopulations and the maintenance of the sexes, we used a mathematical model of the liverwort Marchantia inflexa. This clonal organism is found in discrete patches on rocks and along the banks of streams, which form single-sex and two-sex metapopulations. In this system, asexual propagules mainly disperse short distances. Long-distance between-patch dispersal and recolonization mainly occurs via sexual propagules, which require both sexes to be present. Dispersal of these two types of propagules could interact with the spatial arrangement of populations to affect the maintenance of the sexes. With our mathematical model, we found that at intermediate distances between populations, metapopulations maintained both sexes, and the spatial arrangement of populations changed the threshold at which one sex was lost. On the other hand, when populations were close to one another, one sex was lost and the single-sex metapopulation persisted through dispersal of asexual propagules. When populations were far apart, one sex was lost, and the metapopulation either went extinct due to lack of recolonization by asexual propagules or persisted because clumped populations facilitated recolonization. These idealized spatial arrangements help clarify the effects of the spatial arrangement on the maintenance of the sexes and the persistence of metapopulations of clonal organisms, which can help explain geographic parthenogenesis and the distribution of asexual populations, the persistence of asexual species, and inform the conservation of clonal organisms.     

Metapopulation structure and habitat quality in modelling dispersal in the butterfly Iolana iolas

Quantifying dispersal is fundamental to understanding the effects of fragmentation on populations. Although it has been shown that patch and matrix quality can affect dispersal patterns, standard metapopulation models are usually based on the two basic variables, patch area and connectivity. In 2004 we studied migration patterns among 18 habitat patches in central Spain for the butterfly Iolana iolas, using mark–release–recapture methods. We applied the virtual migration (VM) model and estimated the parameters of emigration, immigration and mortality separately for males and females. During parameter estimation and model simulations, we used original and modified patch areas accounting for habitat quality with three different indices. Two indices were based on adult and larval resources (flowers and fruits) and the other one on butterfly density. Based on unmodified areas, our results showed that both sexes were markedly different in their movements and mortality rates. Females emigrated more frequently from patches, but males that emigrated were estimated to move longer daily dispersal distances and suffer higher mortality than females during migration. Males were more likely to emigrate from small than from large patches, but patch area had no significant effect on female emigration. The effects of area on immigration rate and the within-patch mortality were similar in both sexes. Based on modified areas, the estimated parameter values and the model simulation results were similar to those estimated using the unmodified patch areas. One possible reason for the failure to significantly improve the parameter estimates of the VM model is the fact that resource quantity and butterfly population sizes were strongly correlated with patch area. Our results suggest that the standard VM modelling approach, based on patch area and connectivity, can provide a realistic picture of the movement patterns of I. iolas .     

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.     

Optimal patch use and metapopulation dynamics

Summary We compared the metapopulation dynamics of predator—prey systems with (1) adaptive global dispersal, (2) adaptive local dispersal, (3) fixed global dispersal and (4) fixed local dispersal by predators. Adaptive dispersal was modelled using the marginal value theorem, such that predators departed patches when the instantaneous rate of prey capture was less than the long-term rate of prey capture averaged over all patches, scaled to the movement time between patches. Adaptive dispersal tended to stabilize metapopulation dynamics in a similar manner to conventional fixed dispersal models, but the temporal dynamics of adaptive dispersal models were more unpredictable than the smooth oscillations of fixed dispersal models. Moreover, fixed and adaptive dispersal models responded differently to spatial variation in patch productivity and the degree of compartmentalization of the system. For both adaptive dispersal and fixed dispersal models, localized (stepping-stone) dispersal was more strongly stabilizing than global (island) dispersal. Variation among predators in the probability of dispersal in relation to local prey density had a strong stabilizing influence on both within-patch and metapopulation dynamics. These results suggest that adaptive space use strategies by predators could have important implications for the dynamics of spatially heterogeneous trophic systems.     

Modelling single nucleotide effects in phosphoglucose isomerase on dispersal in the Glanville fritillary butterfly: coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

Dispersal comprises a complex life-history syndrome that influences the demographic dynamics of especially those species that live in fragmented landscapes, the structure of which may in turn be expected to impose selection on dispersal. We have constructed an individual-based evolutionary sexual model of dispersal for species occurring as metapopulations in habitat patch networks. The model assumes correlated random walk dispersal with edge-mediated behaviour (habitat selection) and spatially correlated stochastic local dynamics. The model is parametrized with extensive data for the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Based on empirical results for a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, we assume that dispersal rate in the landscape matrix, fecundity and survival are affected by a locus with two alleles, A and C, individuals with the C allele being more mobile. The model was successfully tested with two independent empirical datasets on spatial variation in Pgi allele frequency. First, at the level of local populations, the frequency of the C allele is the highest in newly established isolated populations and the lowest in old isolated populations. Second, at the level of sub-networks with dissimilar numbers and connectivities of patches, the frequency of C increases with decreasing network size and hence with decreasing average metapopulation size. The frequency of C is the highest in landscapes where local extinction risk is high and where there are abundant opportunities to establish new populations. Our results indicate that the strength of the coupling of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics depends on the spatial scale and is asymmetric, demographic dynamics having a greater immediate impact on genetic dynamics than vice versa.     

How Levins’ dynamics emerges from a Ricker metapopulation model

Understanding the dynamics of metapopulations close to extinction is of vital importance for management. Levins-like models, in which local patches are treated as either occupied or empty, have been used extensively to explore the extinction dynamics of metapopulations, but they ignore the important role of local population dynamics. In this paper, we consider a stochastic metapopulation model where local populations follow a stochastic, density-dependent dynamics (the Ricker model), and use this framework to investigate the behaviour of the metapopulation on the brink of extinction. We determine under which circumstances the metapopulation follows a time evolution consistent with Levins’ dynamics. We derive analytical expressions for the colonisation and extinction rates (c and e) in Levins-type models in terms of reproduction, survival and dispersal parameters of the local populations, providing an avenue to parameterising Levins-like models from the type of information on local demography that is available for a number of species. To facilitate applying our results, we provide a numerical algorithm for computing c and e.     

Effects of matrix heterogeneity on animal dispersal: from individual behavior to metapopulation-level parameters

Mounting theoretical and empirical evidence shows that matrix heterogeneity may have contrasting effects on metapopulation dynamics by contributing to patch isolation in nontrivial ways. We analyze the movement properties during interpatch dispersal in a metapopulation of Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus). On a daily temporal scale, lynx habitat selection defines two types of matrix habitats where individuals may move: open and dispersal habitats (avoided and used as available, respectively). There was a strong and complex impact of matrix heterogeneity on movement properties at several temporal scales (hourly and daily radiolocations and the entire dispersal event). We use the movement properties on the hourly temporal scale to build a simulation model to reconstruct individual dispersal events. The two most important parameters affecting model predictions at both the individual (daily) and metapopulation scales were related to the movement capacity (number of movement steps per day and autocorrelation in dispersal habitat) followed by the parameters representing the habitat selection in the matrix. The model adequately reproduced field estimates of population-level parameters (e.g., interpatch connectivity, maximum and final dispersal distances), and its performance was clearly improved when including the effect of matrix heterogeneity on movement properties. To assume there is a homogeneous matrix results in large errors in the estimate of interpatch connectivity, especially for close patches separated by open habitat or corridors of dispersal habitat, showing how important it is to consider matrix heterogeneity when it is present. Movement properties affect the interaction of dispersing individuals with the landscape and can be used as a mechanistic representation of dispersal at the metapopulation level. This is so when the effect of matrix heterogeneity on movement properties is evaluated under biologically meaningful spatial and temporal scales.     

Evolution of Complex Density-Dependent Dispersal Strategies

The question of how dispersal behavior is adaptive and how it responds to changes in selection pressure is more relevant than ever, as anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change accelerate around the world. In metapopulation models where local populations are large, and thus local population size is measured in densities, density-dependent dispersal is expected to evolve to a single-threshold strategy, in which individuals stay in patches with local population density smaller than a threshold value and move immediately away from patches with local population density larger than the threshold. Fragmentation tends to convert continuous populations into metapopulations and also to decrease local population sizes. Therefore we analyze a metapopulation model, where each patch can support only a relatively small local population and thus experience demographic stochasticity. We investigated the evolution of density-dependent dispersal, emigration and immigration, in two scenarios: adult and natal dispersal. We show that density-dependent emigration can also evolve to a nonmonotone, “triple-threshold” strategy. This interesting phenomenon results from an interplay between the direct and indirect benefits of dispersal and the costs of dispersal. We also found that, compared to juveniles, dispersing adults may benefit more from density-dependent vs. density-independent dispersal strategies.     

The matrix matters: effective isolation in fragmented landscapes

Traditional approaches to the study of fragmented landscapes invoke an island-ocean model and assume that the nonhabitat matrix surrounding remnant patches is uniform. Patch isolation, a crucial parameter to the predictions of island biogeography and metapopulation theories, is measured by distance alone. To test whether the type of interpatch matrix can contribute significantly to patch isolation, I conducted a mark-recapture study on a butterfly community inhabiting meadows in a naturally patchy landscape. I used maximum likelihood to estimate the relative resistances of the two major matrix types (willow thicket and conifer forest) to butterfly movement between meadow patches. For four of the six butterfly taxa (subfamilies or tribes) studied, conifer was 3-12 times more resistant than willow. For the two remaining taxa (the most vagile and least vagile in the community), resistance estimates for willow and conifer were not significantly different, indicating that responses to matrix differ even among closely related species. These results suggest that the surrounding matrix can significantly influence the "effective isolation" of habitat patches, rendering them more or less isolated than simple distance or classic models would indicate. Modification of the matrix may provide opportunities for reducing patch isolation and thus the extinction risk of populations in fragmented landscapes.     

Evolution of local adaptations in dispersal strategies

The optimal probability and distance of dispersal largely depend on the risk to end up in unsuitable habitat. This risk is highest close to the habitat's edge and consequently, optimal dispersal probability and distance should decline towards the habitat's border. This selection should lead to the emergence of spatial gradients in dispersal strategies. However, gene flow caused by dispersal itself is counteracting local adaptation. Using an individual based model we investigate the evolution of local adaptations of dispersal probability and distance within a single, circular, habitat patch. We compare evolved dispersal probabilities and distances for six different dispersal kernels (two negative exponential kernels, two skewed kernels, nearest neighbour dispersal and global dispersal) in patches of different size. For all kernels a positive correlation between patch size and dispersal probability emerges. However, a minimum patch size is necessary to allow for local adaptation of dispersal strategies within patches. Beyond this minimum patch area the difference in mean dispersal distance between center and edge increases linearly with patch radius, but the intensity of local adaptation depends on the dispersal kernel. Except for global and nearest neighbour dispersal, the evolved spatial pattern are qualitatively similar for both, mean dispersal probability and distance. We conclude, that inspite of the gene-flow originating from dispersal local adaptation of dispersal strategies is possible if a habitat is of sufficient size. This presumably holds for any realistic type of dispersal kernel.     

Nymphalid butterfly dispersal among forest fragments at Serra da Canastra National Park,Brazil

Organisms must possess good dispersal ability to persist in fragmented landscapes, as extinction in habitat patches is frequent and patches must be re-colonised to keep viable metapopulations. Thus, metapopulation maintenance is dependent on patch size and distance, although these affect species differently. In order to evaluate the ability of Nymphalid butterfly species to live in naturally fragmented small forest fragments we marked and released 3,415 butterflies in 16 of these areas separated in two networks at the Serra da Canastra National Park (PNSC), south-eastern Brazil. Subsequent recaptures in different forest fragments enabled us to assess the dispersal rates and distances for several Nymphalid species. Seventeen butterflies from 11 out of the 50 species captured were directly observed to disperse from 500 m to 870 m. Dispersal rates varied between 1 and 7% of the marked individuals and were directly correlated to the mean forewing length of each butterfly species population. The connectivity of the forest fragments through creeks appear to facilitate butterfly dispersal among fragments within micro-basins, as only one out of 50 dispersing individuals was observed to fly from one micro-basin to the other. Several species had viable populations in the small-fragment network. The distance between fragments is crucial as the coarser fragment network was unlikely to sustain viable populations of most of the species. The protection of large forest fragments located outside of the PNSC may be necessary to promote colonization of the smaller forest fragments inside the Park.     

Predicting immigration of two species in contrasting landscapes: effects of scale, patch size and isolation

Migration is a key process for spatially structured populations. We examined how a variety of patch based metrics commonly used to predict the number of immigrants to a habitat patch performed based on data from three different years, in two distinct insect systems. The first system was an herbivorous beetle inhabiting patches of its host plant within a 'typical' patch network. In this system there were numerous patches located relatively close to one another, given the beetle's dispersal ability. The second system consisted of a butterfly inhabiting a series of 17 subalpine meadows. Here, the patches were arranged in a linear fashion and were more distant from each other. Overall, we found that the best models incorporating aspects of patch size and/or isolation explained a large (30–40%) amount of deviance in immigration, but there were considerable differences between the systems. For the first system, we found that metrics including the size of the target patch explained the highest proportion of deviance in immigrant numbers, while metrics based only on interpatch distances explained very little deviance. The situation was reversed for the second system. Metrics including the size of the target patch explained little deviance, while metrics based on the distance between patches explained the bulk of deviance in the number of immigrants. The results of our study show that the effects of patch size and isolation on the number of immigrants are highly important, but dependent on spatial scale, the organism studied, and how it responds to the spatial arrangement of patches. Correspondingly, there will be no single generalized metric to predict immigration for all cases. Given the dependency of the results on the system studied, we recommend that future studies provide explicit data on habitat areas and dispersal distance relative to interpatch distance to allow for meaningful comparison among organisms and systems.