Long-term population changes in the Giant Quiver Tree, Aloe pillansii in the Richtersveld, South Africa

With probably fewer than 3000 individuals alive in the biodiversity hotspot of the Succulent Karoo in southern Africa, populations of the endemic, Giant Quiver Tree, Aloe pillansii, are thought to be declining and thus threatened with extinction. Using repeat photography and field data we investigated the long-term changes in one population of A. pillansii at its type locality, the roughly 100 ha Cornell’s Kop in the Richtersveld, South Africa. There are currently 75 individuals alive at this site. Of these, 44% are <1 m in height (seedlings), 4% are 1–3 m (juveniles) and 52% are >3 m (adults). An analysis of 14 repeat photographs shows that since 1937 an average of 1.4% of the plants >3 m in height has died annually. At this rate all the remaining 39 plants on Cornell’s Kop in this size class will be dead in 71 years. The relative paucity of plants in the 1–3 m size classes could be explained by several factors including plant theft, animal damage and unfavourable recruitment conditions during the first 80 years of the 20th century. Annual growth rates decrease as plants age. Individuals <1 m in height grow at 42.5 mm yr⁻¹ while plants 1–3 m and those >3 m grow at 31.0 and 16.4 mm yr⁻¹ respectively. At 8 m, the tallest plant on Cornell’s Kop could be as old as 382 years and thus to maintain itself at this site, A. pillansii would only need to recruit relatively infrequently. The relatively high proportion of seedlings suggests that conditions have recently been favourable for recruitment at this site. Seedling ages, estimated from their heights, indicate that over 50% of the plants <1 m in height germinated 5–10 years ago. This is consistent with local rainfall records which show that rainfall was consistently above the long-term annual average of 75 mm during this period. However, the loss of six seedlings from the population in the last 5 years, probably due to grazing or theft, suggests that without intervention this species will not survive on Cornell’s Kop.     

Adjustment of the annual cycle to climatic change in a long-lived migratory bird species

Climate change has advanced the phenology of many organisms. Migratory animals face particular problems because climate change in the breeding and the wintering range may be asynchronous, preventing rapid response to changing conditions. Advancement in timing of spring migration may have carry-over effects to other parts of the annual cycle, simply because advancement of one event in the annual cycle also advances subsequent events, gradually causing a general shift in the timing of the entire annual cycle. Such a phenotypic shift could generate accumulating effects over the years for individuals, but also across generations. Here we test this novel hypothesis of phenotypic response to climate change by using long-term data on the Arctic tern Sterna paradisaea. Mean breeding date advanced by almost three weeks during the last 70 years. Annual arrival date at the breeding grounds during a period of 47 years was predicted by environmental conditions in the winter quarters in the Southern Ocean near the Antarctic and by mean breeding date the previous year. Annual mean breeding date was only marginally determined by timing of arrival the current year, but to a larger extent by arrival date and breeding date the previous year. Learning affected arrival date as shown by a positive correlation between arrival date in year (i+1) relative to breeding date in year (i) and the selective advantage of early breeding in year (i). This provides a mechanism for changes in arrival date being adjusted to changing environmental conditions. This study suggests that adaptation to changing climatic conditions can be achieved through learning from year to year[Current Zoology 55(2):92-101,2009].     

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (∼20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.     

Seasonal changes in the migratory behaviour of the toad Bufo bufo: direction and magnitude of movements

Summary The migratory behaviour of the toad Bufo bufo was studied from February 1985 to April 1986 in the submontane region of Bavaria, West Germany. Toads were fitted with a mechanical tracking device to record individual paths of migration. Three aspects of migratory behaviour were quantified: orientation in relation to the breeding site, straightness of path, and locomotory activity. The annual activity period began with migration from the hibernation sites to the breeding pond in April. The paths went straight towards the breeding pond independent of the distance (70–420 m). During the period of oviposition the preference for the breeding site direction vanished and toads moved away from the breeding pond, but in less straight paths than before. In summer migratory activity decreased considerably and was restricted to small areas, the home ranges, at distances of 55–1600 m from the natal breeding pond. The straightness of path was rather low, because toads often returned to their starting points. During rainy nights toads occasionally left their home ranges for extensive excursions. In autumn most toads again migrated towards the breeding pond, but paths were significantly less straight and direct than in spring. However, toads stopped before reaching the breeding pond and hibernated in holes or under the leaf layer. The mortality rate of tracked toads was about 45%. The relative influence of 17 environmental variables on locomotory activity was evaluated by principal component analysis and stepwise multiple regression. Temperature at night and rainfall variables accounted for significant amounts of variance, whereas temperature by day, air humidity, and atmospheric pressure showed no correlation. Activity decreased if temperature approached 0° C or after long periods without rainfall. Within a certain range of tolerance, however, the locomotory activity of the toads was widely independent of environmental factors, indicating that endogeneous factors are more important sources of variation in the migratory behaviour of these toads than commonly assumed.     

Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits—arrival date and hatching date—and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.     

Examining the total arrival distribution of migratory birds

This paper reports on the total distribution of spring migration timing of willow warbler, chiffchaff and pied flycatcher at locations in the UK, Germany, Russia and Finland. This is the first time that high‐quality data based on known‐effort monitoring has been examined on a continental scale. First arrival dates, commonly reported in the literature, were positively correlated with mean arrival dates although they would not make good predictors of the latter. At all locations, at least one aspect of the arrival distribution of each species had got significantly earlier in recent years. The trend towards earliness was associated with warmer local temperatures and more positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation index. In years that were early, the arrival distribution became more elongated and skewed. Researchers should now investigate the consequences of earlier arrival on current and future bird populations.     

The role of seasonal timing and phenological shifts for species coexistence

Shifts in the phenologies of coexistence species are altering the temporal structure of natural communities worldwide. However, predicting how these changes affect the structure and long‐term dynamics of natural communities is challenging because phenology and coexistence theory have largely proceeded independently. Here, I propose a conceptual framework that incorporates seasonal timing of species interactions into a well‐studied competition model to examine how changes in phenologies influence long‐term dynamics of natural communities. Using this framework I demonstrate that persistence and coexistence conditions strongly depend on the difference in species’ mean phenologies and how this difference varies across years. Consequently, shifts in mean and interannual variation in relative phenologies of species can fundamentally alter the outcome of interactions and the potential for persistence and coexistence of competing species. These effects can be predicted by how per‐capita effects scale with differences in species’ phenologies. I outline how this approach can be parameterized with empirical systems and discuss how it fits within the context of current coexistence theory. Overall, this synthesis reveals that phenology of species interactions can play a crucial yet currently understudied role in driving coexistence and biodiversity patterns in natural systems and determine how species will respond to future climate change.     

Effects of temperature on performance and phenotypic selection on plant traits in alpine Ranunculus acris

Discovering temperature effects on the performance of tundra plants is important in the light of expected climate change. In this 4-year study on alpine Ranunculus acris, I test the hypothesis that temperature influences flowering phenology, reproductive success, growth, population dynamics, and phenotypic selection on quantitative traits, by experimental warming using open-top chambers (OTCs). Warming significantly advanced flowering phenology in only one season. Seed number and weight were significantly increased by warming during the first three seasons, but not in the fourth. Plants inside OTCs produced bigger leaves than control plants in the fourth season, but leaf number was unaffected by the OTC treatment. Despite increased seed number and weight, the density of flowering plants decreased inside OTCs compared to control plots, possibly because of a higher graminoid cover inside OTCs. Phenotypic-selection regression showed a significant selection differential and gradient in the direction of larger leaf sizes in control plants, whereas no selection on leaf size was detected on warmed plants. The direction and strength of selection on flowering time, flower number, and leaf number did not differ between control and warmed plants. The results suggest that increased reproductive output of R. acris may not be sufficient to maintain current population density under a denser vegetation cover. Received: 1 December 1998 / Accepted: 14 April 1999     

Ecophysiological aspects of rapid population growth in a novel migratory blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) population: an experimental approach

Summary Blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) that breed in central Europe have usually migrated to Mediterranean or African wintering grounds. In the past several decades, a portion of this breeding population has started migrating to the British Isles to overwinter and this population has increased dramatically. Several factors, including higher annual survivorship (due to supplemental feeding and reduced migratiry distance), assortative mating, and enhanced reproductive success may be involved in this rapid population growth. As part of an intensive, long-term study of this population, we tested the hypothesis that the differences in photoperiod experienced by British-wintering versus Mediterranean-wintering blackcaps might lead to relatively early vernal (i.e., migratory and/or reproductive) physiological condition in members of the former group. We found that birds exposed to photoperiodic conditions that simulated migration to Britain to overwinter generally initiated vernal migratory activity earlier than birds held under conditions simulating migration to traditional wintering areas in central Spain. This difference, coupled with the shorter migratory distance to the British Isles, leads to significantly earlier estimated arrival dates for blackcaps that winter in Britain compared to central Spain. Bimodality in arrival times suggests that assortative mating on central European breeding grounds might occur between members of the different wintering populations. Males exposed to British-winter photoperiods showed significantly earlier testicular development than males kept under Spanish-winter photoperiods. Early arrival on the breeding grounds, coupled with accelerated reproductive condition, should lead to a relatively early reproductive effort, perhaps increasing average reproductive success. In general, these results support the hypothesis that differences in photoperiod on the wintering grounds may play an important role in the dynamic state of this population.     

Evidence for different drivers behind long-term decline and depression of density in cyclic voles

Decline and long-term depression of mean densities of the grey-sided vole (Myodes rufocanus) and the field vole (Microtus agrestis) have occurred in managed forest landscapes of Sweden since the 1970s. Generally poor over-winter survival during a period with mild winters suggested a common climatic driver, but other explanations exist. Here we explore the response of the grey-sided vole, preferring forested habitats, and the field vole, preferring open habitats, to clear-cutting of old forest in Sweden. The cumulated impact from long-term clear-cutting explained local disappearances of the grey-sided vole. Maintained connectivity of old forest to stone fields was important for local population survival, since no such populations disappeared. For the grey-sided vole, it is probable that climate is not the dominating driver due to different timing of the decline in our study area. Instead, habitat loss is concluded as being a potential cause of the decline in mean density and depression of grey-sided vole densities. The long-lasting depression of field vole densities, despite favourable landscape changes, suggests action of another strong driver. A recent field vole recovery, essentially back to pre-decline densities and distribution, coincided with favourable winter/snow conditions, suggesting a climatic driver in this case.     

Climatic patterns in the establishment of wintering areas by North American migratory birds

Long‐distance migration in birds is relatively well studied in nature; however, one aspect of this phenomenon that remains poorly understood is the pattern of distribution presented by species during arrival to and establishment of wintering areas. Some studies suggest that the selection of areas in winter is somehow determined by climate, given its influence on both the distribution of bird species and their resources. We analyzed whether different migrant passerine species of North America present climatic preferences during arrival to and departure from their wintering areas. We used ecological niche modeling to generate monthly potential climatic distributions for 13 migratory bird species during the winter season by combining the locations recorded per month with four environmental layers. We calculated monthly coefficients of climate variation and then compared two GLM (generalized linear models), evaluated with the AIC (Akaike information criterion), to describe how these coefficients varied over the course of the season, as a measure of the patterns of establishment in the wintering areas. For 11 species, the sites show nonlinear patterns of variation in climatic preferences, with low coefficients of variation at the beginning and end of the season and higher values found in the intermediate months. The remaining two species analyzed showed a different climatic pattern of selective establishment of wintering areas, probably due to taxonomic discrepancy, which would affect their modeled winter distribution. Patterns of establishment of wintering areas in the species showed a climatic preference at the macroscale, suggesting that individuals of several species actively select wintering areas that meet specific climatic conditions. This probably gives them an advantage over the winter and during the return to breeding areas. As these areas become full of migrants, alternative suboptimal sites are occupied. Nonrandom winter area selection may also have consequences for the conservation of migratory bird species, particularly under a scenario of climate change.     

Unfavorable successional pathways and the conservation value of logged tropical forest

Conservation agencies are increasingly advocating that the survival of many tropical forest species may depend on disturbed forests and are directing scarce conservation resources to managing logged forests. This requires critical evaluation. In this 10-year study, we quantify tree community dynamics in three selectively logged areas harvested at different intensities and compare their recovery to two unlogged areas in Kibale National Park, Uganda. Over the 10 years, 527 of the original 4840 tagged trees (10cm DBH) died; while the mortality rate was highest in the heavily logged area, it was only significantly greater than one of the unlogged sites. The density of new trees varied significantly among areas being highest in the lightly logged area, but the density of new recruits in the heavily logged area did not differ from the unlogged areas. Overall, the more heavily logged areas had higher growth rates than the unlogged or lightly logged areas. However, there was no difference among areas in the magnitude of the change in basal area; and in both 1990 (20+ years post-harvest) and 2000 the basal area in the heavily logged area was significantly less than the unlogged areas. In general, findings from the heavily logged area suggest that the expectation that in logged areas a number of processes of forest regeneration will be accelerated relative to unlogged forest was not met. Thus, 30+ years after logging evidence suggests that forest recovery will be slower than expected. We also present evidence to suggest that the climate in the region is changing, which may account for changes in the population dynamics of certain species in the unlogged forests.     

Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are predicted to cause reductions in body size, a key determinant of animal physiology and ecology. Using a four‐decade specimen series of 70 716 individuals of 52 North American migratory bird species, we demonstrate that increasing annual summer temperature over the 40‐year period predicts consistent reductions in body size across these diverse taxa. Concurrently, wing length – an index of body shape that impacts numerous aspects of avian ecology and behaviour – has consistently increased across species. Our findings suggest that warming‐induced body size reduction is a general response to climate change, and reveal a similarly consistent and unexpected shift in body shape. We hypothesise that increasing wing length represents a compensatory adaptation to maintain migration as reductions in body size have increased the metabolic cost of flight. An improved understanding of warming‐induced morphological changes is important for predicting biotic responses to global change.     

Marine and freshwater regime changes impact a community of migratory Pacific salmonids in decline

Marine and freshwater ecosystems are increasingly at risk of large and cascading changes from multiple human activities (termed “regime shifts”), which can impact population productivity, resilience, and ecosystem structure. Pacific salmon exhibit persistent and large fluctuations in their population dynamics driven by combinations of intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) and extrinsic factors (e.g., ecosystem changes, species interactions). In recent years, many Pacific salmon have declined due to regime shifts but clear understanding of the processes driving these changes remains elusive. Here, we unpacked the role of density dependence, ecosystem trends, and stochasticity on productivity regimes for a community of five anadromous Pacific salmonids (Steelhead, Coho Salmon, Pink Salmon, Dolly Varden, and Coastal Cutthroat Trout) across a rich 40-year time-series. We used a Bayesian multivariate state-space model to examine whether productivity shifts had similarly occurred across the community and explored marine or freshwater changes associated with those shifts. Overall, we identified three productivity regimes: an early regime (1976–1990), a compensatory regime (1991–2009), and a declining regime (since 2010) where large declines were observed for Steelhead, Dolly Varden, and Cutthroat Trout, intermediate declines in Coho and no change in Pink Salmon. These regime changes were associated with multiple cumulative effects across the salmon life cycle. For example, increased seal densities and ocean competition were associated with lower adult marine survival in Steelhead. Watershed logging also intensified over the past 40 years and was associated with (all else equal) ≥97% declines in freshwater productivity for Steelhead, Cutthroat, and Coho. For Steelhead, marine and freshwater dynamics played approximately equal roles in explaining trends in total productivity. Collectively, these changing environments limited juvenile production and lowered future adult returns. These results reveal how changes in freshwater and marine environments can jointly shape population dynamics among ecological communities, like Pacific salmon, with cascading consequences to their resilience.     

Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well‐studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate‐change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support (‘consensus view’) for a claim increased and between‐researcher variability in support (‘expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.     

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes,migratory distance,and arrival distributions

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979–2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.     

A matter of timing: changes in the first date of arrival and last date of departure of Australian migratory birds

Although there is substantial evidence that Northern Hemisphere species have responded to climatic change over the last few decades, there is little documented evidence that Southern Hemisphere species have responded in the same way. Here, we report that Australian migratory birds have undergone changes in the first arrival date (FAD) and last date of departure (LDD) of a similar magnitude as species from the Northern Hemisphere. We compiled data on arrival and departure of migratory birds in south‐east Australia since 1960 from the published literature, Bird Observer Reports, and personal observations from bird watchers. Data on the FAD for 24 species and the LDD for 12 species were analyzed. Sixteen species were short‐ to middle‐distance species arriving at their breeding grounds, seven were long‐distance migrants arriving at their nonbreeding grounds, and one was a middle‐distance migrant also arriving at its nonbreeding ground. For 12 species, we gathered data from more than one location, enabling us to assess the consistency of intraspecific trends at different locations. Regressions of climate variables against year show that across south‐east Australia average annual maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.17°C and 0.13°C decade^?1 since 1960, respectively. Over this period there has been an average advance in arrival of 3.5 days decade^?1; 16 of the 45 time‐series (representing 12 of the 24 species studied) showed a significant trend toward earlier arrival, while only one time‐series showed a significant delay. Conversely, there has been an average delay in departure of 5.1 days decade^?1; four of the 21 departure time‐series (four species) showed a significant trend toward later departure, while one species showed a significant trend toward earlier departure. However, differences emerge between the arrival and departure of short‐ to middle‐distance species visiting south‐east Australia to breed compared with long‐distance species that spend their nonbreeding period here. On average, short‐ to middle‐distance migrants have arrived at their breeding grounds 3.1 days decade^?1 earlier and delayed departure by 8.1 days decade^?1, thus extending the time spent in their breeding grounds by ～11 days decade^?1. The average advance in arrival at the nonbreeding grounds of long‐distance migrants is 6.8 days decade^?1. These species, however, have also advanced departure by an average of 6.9 days decade^?1. Hence, the length of stay has not changed but rather, the timing of events has advanced. The patterns of change in FAD and LDD of Australian migratory birds are of a similar magnitude to changes undergone by Northern Hemisphere species, and add further evidence that the modest warming experienced over the past few decades has already had significant biological impacts on a global scale.     

Ixodes ricinus parasitism of birds increases at higher winter temperatures

Increasing winter temperatures are expected to cause seasonal activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks to extend further into the winter. We caught birds during winter months (November to February) at a site in the west of Scotland over a period of 24 years (1993–1994 to 2016–2017) to quantify numbers of attached I. ricinus and to relate these to monthly mean temperature. No adult ticks were found on any of the 21,731 bird captures, but 946 larvae and nymphs were found, with ticks present in all winter months, on 16 different species of bird hosts. All ticks identified to species were I. ricinus. I. ricinus are now active throughout the year in this area providing temperature permits. No I. ricinus were present in seven out of eight months when the mean temperature was below 3.5º C. Numbers of I. ricinus attached to birds increased rapidly with mean monthly temperatures above 7º C. Winter temperatures in Scotland have been above the long‐term average in most years in the last two decades, and this is likely to increase risk of tick‐borne disease.