Seasonal declines in reproductive success of the common tern Sterna hirundo: timing or parental quality?

Reproductive success declines over the course of the breeding season in many bird species. Two categories of hypothesis have been evoked to explain this decline. The “timing” hypothesis suggests that seasonal declines in breeding success are attributable to the date of laying. The “parental quality” hypothesis suggests that seasonal declines result from the fact that young, inexperienced, or low quality birds breed later in the season. To evaluate the relative importance of timing and parental quality, egg exchanges and removals were used to manipulate hatching dates of common terns Sterna hirundo. Indices of quality, attendance, provisioning rates, and reproductive success of birds in three experimental groups (delayed hatch pairs, advanced hatch pairs, and pairs induced to relay) were compared to those of date‐matched controls. Pairs that hatched chicks early raised more chicks than pairs hatching chicks late in the season, regardless of initial laying date. This suggests that hatching chicks early is advantageous in itself. Our results, however, also support the parental quality hypothesis. There was a significant negative relationship between natural laying date and fledging success, independent of hatching date. Differences in chick growth and survival suggest that higher quality adults may be able to compensate for the disadvantages of late hatching dates and achieve similar reproductive success to that of pairs hatching chicks early. We found that pairs hatching chicks late in the season were subject to more incidents of kleptoparasitism than those hatching chicks early. This may be a proximate factor contributing to seasonal declines in reproductive success for common terns, although such a mechanism would not be likely in non‐colonial species. Failure to control for egg quality may have biased the results of some prior egg exchange experiments. Additionally, altered cost of incubation may be an unavoidable confounding factor in studies designed to manipulate timing of breeding.     

Timing of current reproduction directly affects future reproductive output in European coots

Life-history theory suggests that the variation in the seasonal timing of reproduction within populations may be explained on the basis of individual optimization. Optimal breeding times would vary between individuals as a result of trade-offs between fitness components. The existence of such trade-offs has seldom been tested empirically. We experimentally investigated the consequences of altered timing of current reproduction for future reproductive output in the European coot (Fulica atra). First clutches of different laying date were cross-fostered between nests, and parents thereby experienced a delay or an advance in the hatching date. The probability and success of a second brood, adult survival until and reproduction in the next season were then compared to the natural variation among control pairs. Among control pairs the probability of a second brood declined with the progress of season. Delayed pairs were less likely and advanced pairs were more likely to produce a second brood. These changes were quantitatively as predicted from the natural seasonal decline. The number of eggs in the second clutch was positively related to egg number in the first clutch and negatively related to laying date. Compared to the natural variation, delayed females had more and advanced females had fewer eggs in their second clutch. The size of the second brood declined with season, but there was no significant effect of delay or advance. Local adult survival was higher following a delay and reduced following an advance. The effect of the experiment on adult survival was independent of sex. Laying date and clutch size of females breeding in the next year were not affected by treatment. The study demonstrates the existence of a trade-off between increased probability of a second brood and decreased parental survival for early breeding. Timing-dependent effects of current reproduction on future reproductive output may thus play an important role in the evolution of the seasonal timing of reproduction.     

Seasonal decline in provisioning effort and nestling mass of Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus: experimental support for the parent quality hypothesis

A common feature of many birds breeding in seasonal environments is that fitness‐related parameters such as nestling mass or survival decline as the breeding season progresses. Consequently, there is a tendency for early breeders to have better reproductive performance than individuals breeding later in the season. This variation could be caused by factors associated with the date of laying, such as changing environmental conditions (date hypothesis), or by differences in parental quality between early and late breeders (parent quality hypothesis). To evaluate the relative importance of both hypotheses, we manipulated hatch dates of Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus by exchanging clutches with different incubation stages and assessed the impact on nestling mass, nestling diet and provisioning rates. Mean nestling mass declined significantly over the season. This was the combined result of differences in parental quality, which dominated in the early part of the season, and the influence of hatching date (date effect per se), which prevailed later in the season. Nestling diet composition was apparently uninfluenced by the manipulation, suggesting that deteriorating food supplies are the primary reason for the seasonal variation in the nestling diet. Counter to the date hypothesis, delayed parents did not feed their young less than control pairs did, but in fact exhibited higher provisioning rates. Our results suggest that in this population, parental quality seems to constrain post‐hatching reproductive performance and such intrinsic limitations may help to explain why certain individuals breed later.     

Drivers of the breeding success of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus frazari) at a critical site in Sinaloa,Mexico

Understanding breeding phenology and success can elucidate population dynamics, which is especially important for species in need of conservation. We describe the factors affecting the breeding biology of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus frazari) at El Rancho Island, a critical site that contains ~ 7% of the total estimated population, on the coast of Sinaloa, Mexico. We monitored 192 nests over four years (2016–2019). The breeding season lasted from March to June and mean laying dates differed among years, with the mean laying date in 2019 an average of 20 days earlier than in 2016. Clutch sizes decreased as the breeding season progressed. Both breeding success and productivity differed among years, with the lowest values in 2016 (30% hatching success and 0.6 chicks/nest) and the highest in 2019 (66% hatching success and 1.2 chicks/nest). Hatching success was affected by year, laying date, type of habitat, and distance to the high tide line. American Oystercatchers that laid eggs earlier in the season, used mixed marsh and dune habitat, and with nests relatively close to the waterline (< 50 m) had greater breeding success. Overall, however, the breeding success of American Oystercatchers was low and influenced by a combination of several intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Management measures may be required to increase breeding success and ensure the conservation of this subspecies.     

Annual and seasonal reproductive trends in the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos minor

Annual and seasonal variation in reproductive timing and performance were studied in a population of the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos minor over 10 years in southern Sweden. The median laying date of the first egg varied by up to 17 days between years, being generally larger than the variation of laying dates within years. Neither clutch size, brood size in successful nests, fledging success in successful nests nor mean nestling weight differed significantly between years. There was no trend for mean clutch size to vary between early and late years. In spite of a more than threefold variation in population size, no reproductive variable demonstrated an apparent density-dependence. Within the season, clutch size declined steeply with increasing clutch initiation date, whereas fledging success and nesting success did not, leading to a trend in brood size almost identical to the trend in clutch size. The survival prospects of fledged young declined with increasing clutch initiation date, and it is argued that the clutch size laid is a strategic adjustment to laying date. Out of 124 breeding attempts, 34% did not produce fledged young. In 9% of the breeding attempts, pairs laid no eggs. At least 20% of the breeding attempts failed after egg-laying. The most common cause of breeding failure was loss of the breeding partner followed by nest abandonment (40% of the failures). Only 16–28% of the failures were due to predation on the nest. Most complete failures, and also partial losses from nests, occurred at the early breeding stages. It is argued that the early nestling phase may be a critical stage, which the woodpeckers adjust to coincide with the seasonal food peak, explaining the strikingly late breeding season compared with other non-migrant species.     

Age-related change in breeding performance in early life is associated with an increase in competence in the migratory barn swallow Hirundo rustica

1. We investigated age-related changes in two reproductive traits (laying date and annual fecundity) in barn swallows Hirundo rustica L. using a mixed model approach to di-stinguish among between- and within-individual changes in breeding performance with age. 2. We tested predictions of age-related improvements of competence (i.e. constraint hypothesis) and age-related progressive disappearance of poor-quality breeders (i.e. selection hypothesis) to explain age-related increase in breeding performance in early life. 3. Reproductive success increased in early life, reaching a plateau at middle age (e.g. at 3 years of age) and decreasing at older age (> 4 years). Age-related changes in breeding success were due mainly to an effect of female age. 4. Age of both female and male affected timing of reproduction. Final linear mixed effect models (LME) for laying date included main and quadratic terms for female and male age, suggesting a deterioration in reproductive performance at older age for both males and females. 5. We found evidence supporting the constraints hypothesis that increases in competence within individuals, with ageing being the most probable cause of the observed increase in breeding performance with age in early life. Two mechanisms were implicated: (1) advance in male arrival date with age provided middle-aged males with better access to mates. Yearling males arrived later to the breeding grounds and therefore had limited access to high-quality mates. (2) Breeding pairs maintaining bonds for 2 consecutive years (experienced pairs) had higher fecundity than newly formed inexperienced breeding pairs. 6. There was no support for the selection hypothesis because breeding performance was not correlated with life span. 7. We found a within-individual deterioration in breeding and migratory performance (arrival date) in the oldest age-classes consistent with senescence in these reproductive and migratory traits.     

Increased survival and breeding performance of double breeders in little penguins Eudyptula minor,New Zealand: evidence for individual bird quality?

The little penguin Eudyptula minor is unique among penguin species in being able to fledge chicks from two clutches in one breeding season. Pairs laying two clutches in a given season make a higher reproductive investment, and may be rewarded by a higher reproductive success as they may raise twice as many chicks as pairs laying one clutch. The higher effort made by pairs laying two clutches could correlate negatively with survival, future reproductive performance or offspring survival, indicating a cost of reproduction. Conversely, a positive relationship between the number of clutches produced in a given breeding season and survival, future reproductive performance or offspring survival would indicate that birds laying two clutches belonged to a category of birds with higher fitness, compared to birds laying only one clutch in the season. In this study we used a long‐term data set taken from an increasing population of little penguins in Otago, SE New Zealand. We modelled the relationship between the number of clutches laid in a breeding season and survival probability, reproductive performance in the next breeding season and first year survival of offspring using capture‐recapture modelling.
Birds laying two clutches produced 1.7 times more fledglings during a breeding season than pairs laying one clutch. We found that birds laying two clutches had a higher probability of breeding in the following breeding season, a higher probability of laying two clutches in the following breeding season and a higher survival probability. There was no overall difference in post‐fledging survival between the young of birds producing one clutch and the young of birds producing two clutches. However, the survival of young of single clutch breeders declined with laying date, whereas the young of double clutch breeders had the same survival rate irrespective of laying date. For a subset of data with birds of known age, we found evidence that the probability of laying two clutches increased with age. However, there were also indications for differences among birds in the tendency to lay two clutches that could not be attributed to age. We tentatively interpret our results as evidence of quality difference among little penguin breeders.     

Differential maternal investment counteracts for late breeding in magpies Pica pica: an experimental study

Reproductive success in many avian populations declines throughout the breeding season. Two hypotheses have gained attention to explain such a decline: the "timing" hypothesis proposes that deteriorating food availability causes the decline in reproductive success (causal effect of breeding time), whereas the "quality" hypothesis proposes that individuals of lower phenotypic quality reproduce at the end of the breeding season, causing the correlation between breeding time and breeding success. We tested both of these hypotheses in a monogamous single breeder, the magpie Pica pica , by experimentally inducing some pairs to lay a replacement clutch, after removal of the first clutch. The first clutch was left in the nest of another magpie pair (matched by laying date and clutch size), and incubated and raised by these foster parents. In this way we obtained two clutches from the same magpie pair with full siblings raised in conditions of the first and second reproductive attempts. High quality pairs (with laying dates in the first half of the breeding season) reached similar breeding success in replacement clutches as compared to first clutches of the same female. In addition, experimental pairs reared significantly more offspring of similar quality in their replacement clutches as compared to late-season first clutches, thereby suggesting that late season first clutches were produced by pairs of lower phenotypic quality. Results indicate that high quality pairs trade-off clutch size for larger eggs in replacement clutches, which could help magpie pairs to partly compensate for poorer environmental conditions associated with a delayed breeding attempt.     

The effect of body condition on the timing and success of breeding in Little Penguins Eudyptula minor

We studied the effect of parental body condition on the breeding biology of Little Penguins Eudyptula minor . Daily attendance patterns and body mass were recorded using an Automated Penguin Monitoring System, which collected arrival and departure masses for approximately 200 breeding birds over the 2000 and 2001 breeding seasons. Breeding success varied between the two years; 2000 was a year of average breeding success (fledging 1.07 chicks per pair), and 2001 a year of poor breeding success (fledging 0.53 chicks per pair). In both years, adult body condition (body mass divided by flipper length) increased significantly prior to laying. The laying period began over a month later in 2000 than in 2001, and birds in 2000 exhibited significantly better body condition at laying. However, the mean laying dates in 2000 were less variable than in the 2001 breeding season. Body condition appeared to influence both the time of breeding and breeding synchrony in Little Penguins. Breeding success was correlated with adult body condition at incubation in 2000 but not in 2001, indicating that success was not solely influenced by adult body condition at incubation.     

Intrinsic determinants of a population trend in timing of breeding in the wandering albatross

Numerous studies of wild animal species have documented that population level responses to environmental change are underpinned by individual level phenotypic plasticity. However, where the relationship between an individual trait and a climate variable occurs when both show a trend over time, phenotypic plasticity may be confounded by ageing. We investigated between and within individual change in laying date in the wandering albatross Diomedea exulans, a long‐lived species experiencing a dramatic decline in population size. Laying date has advanced over the last three decades. A mean‐centering analysis demonstrated that this pattern was driven by within‐individual changes as opposed to appearance or disappearance of phenotypes. Furthermore, a lack of between individual effect suggested the change resulted from ageing as opposed to phenotypic plasticity. Females varied significantly in rate of advance, such that those with low past reproductive rates exhibited a negative temporal trend in laying date, whereas birds with moderate to high past reproductive performance showed little change. The population trend was therefore driven by a subset with low past breeding success. An analysis of effects of timing of breeding on breeding success revealed stabilizing selection for relative laying date. Furthermore, current breeding success was positively related to past success rate, which suggests that there may be indirect selection against plasticity in this population. Our results show that population trends can arise from individual level change unrelated to prevailing environmental conditions, thus demonstrating the importance of longitudinal analyses in the interpretation of climate change effects.     

Influence of rainfall on timing and success of reproduction in Marabou Storks Leptoptilos crumeniferus

A decline in breeding success with later laying dates throughout a nesting season is a widespread phenomenon in species living in environments with distinct seasonality, with evidence that some environmental correlate of timing is at least partly responsible in many species. This correlate is often thought to be food availability, which is often related to climatic factors; however, few studies have examined the role of climate. We studied a breeding colony of Marabou Storks Leptoptilos crumeniferus in Southern Africa over five breeding seasons. Timing of breeding was related to rainfall preceding the breeding season. Fecundity (chicks fledged per nest) declined through each season. The probability of an individual hatchling fledging was influenced by rainfall during the hatchling period, temperature during the hatchling period and laying date, three variables that were strongly intercorrelated. To disentangle the three effects, inter‐annual variation in each was compared with the large inter‐annual variation in breeding success, with rainfall providing the greatest explanatory power. Rainfall, which tends to increase through the breeding season, seems to be at least partly responsible for the seasonal decline in breeding success. We were unable to find evidence for the influence of other factors, such as colony size and nest re‐use, known to affect nest success in this and other colonial breeding storks.     

BREEDING PERFORMANCE OF PUFFINS FRATERCULA ARCTICA IN RELATION TO NEST DENSITY, LAYING DATE AND YEAR

The paper presents data on the breeding and predation of Puffins in two areas of different nest density within a single colony on Dun, St Kilda group, Outer Hebrides in 1973-78.
Within a season birds laying early had a slightly higher nesting success than birds laying late, but laying date had little influence on the peak and fledging weights of young. The main disadvantage in late laying was a reduced chance of relaying if the first egg was lost.
Breeding success and chick weights varied from year to year. The 1974 season was the least successful with the lowest nesting success, lowest frequency of feeds, lowest calorific value of feeds, lightest chicks and slowest growth. Overall breeding performance was not related to the annual mean laying dates.
In all years pairs nesting in the area of high nest density did better than pairs nesting at low density. The effect is attributed to differential predation and disturbance by predatory gulls. At least 4.2% of adult Puffins breeding in the area of low burrow density were killed by gulls each breeding season; this is higher than the total annual mortality found in three other studies. Only 0.9% of adults from the high density area were found killed. The subpopulation in the low density area cannot survive without much immigration, yet there is no evidence that this happens.     

Constraints on, and determinants of, the annual number of breeding attempts in the multi-brooded Black Redstart Phoenicurus ochruros

With reference to models predicting patterns of reproduction in multi-brooded species, I analysed some of the factors potentially affecting the number of breeding attempts per season made by female Black Redstarts Phoenicurus ochruros in the central Swiss Alps. The maximum number of successful broods per female per season was three, the median two. The proportion of females initiating only a single clutch per season varied from 16 to 58% over 10 years. Variation in the frequency of single brooding between years was positively related to the date of the onset of breeding. Egg-laying started after a temperature-related threshold value was crossed in April. Females frequently re-nested before fledglings of the previous brood were independent. Short interbrood intervals were associated with triple brooding. The interbrood interval shortened during the breeding season. Intra-individual variation in the number of breeding attempts per season was partitioned according to female age, laying date of the season's first egg (standardized in relation to the median date of first laying within a year) and the occurrence of breeding failures before the ultimate nesting attempt. However, mortality during the season often terminated breeding early, in particular among novice breeder females. Seasonal reproductive success increased linearly with each additional breeding attempt. The productivity of a breeding attempt was independent of the time in the season. Increased reproductive effort affected neither current or future survival nor reproduction of females. The reproductive patterns and trade-offs in multi-brooded Black Redstarts contrast in many aspects with those found in single-brooded species. They are in accordance with models predicting that multi-brooded species are selected to start breeding as early as possible, continue breeding for as long as conditions are suitable, and save time by overlapping broods.     

Parental Investment Theory and Nest Defence by Imperial Shags: Effects of Offspring Number,Offspring Age,Laying Date and Parent Sex

Nest defence is a common form of parental care employed by birds to improve the survival of their offspring. Theory predicts that parents should adjust their nest defence according to the value of the brood at stake, defending more intensively broods with high survival and reproductive prospects. We evaluated the influence of offspring number, offspring age, laying date and parent sex on nest‐defence intensity (NDI) of the Imperial Shag Phalacrocorax atriceps, a sexually dimorphic seabird with seasonal decline in offspring survival and very limited renesting potential. We also evaluated whether NDI was correlated within pairs and whether NDI of both members of the pair was correlated with incubation and breeding success. To elicit defensive behaviour, we simulated predation attempts using a Kelp Gull Larus dominicanus model. As predicted by theory, NDI was positively correlated with the number of offspring in the nest and offspring age. NDI during chick rearing was higher than that at early and late incubation, while no differences were found between incubation stages. Contrary to our prediction, we did not find differences in NDI according to laying date. NDI for males was higher than females, while NDI was also positively correlated within pairs. NDI was not statistically related to incubation or breeding success. These results suggest that other factors, such as laying date or parental quality and age, play a much larger role in determining the outcome and productivity of a nesting attempt. Our results provide partial support for parental investment theory; while parental defence increased with brood value according to offspring number and age, parental defence was not related to laying date, a factor strongly affecting offspring survival and recruitment probabilities in this species.     

Selection for synchronous breeding in the European starling

Colonial birds often demonstrate considerable breeding synchrony. In southern Sweden the semi-colonial European starling initiated the vast majority of clutches within one week. Laying dates were positively skewed so that many birds initiated clutches at similar dates early in the season. Breeding was further synchronised by a particularly strong clutch-size reduction equivalent to one third of an egg per day during the first part of the breeding season. The decline in clutch size with season also held true for separate age-classes of females, for individual females laying at different times at different years and for individual females laying at different times the same year. Trends in breeding success during nestling rearing were unlikely to explain the high degree of breeding synchrony or the seasonal decline in clutch size; nestling survival and growth were weakly related or unrelated to reproductive timing. In contrast recruitment success of fledged offspring declined sharply with season. Even within the synchronous laying period, defined as clutches initiated during the first week each year, local recruitment success declined. It is suggested that the early seasonal decline is caused by selection for synchronous fledging permitting the immediate formation of flocks after fledging, whereas the late seasonal trends may be caused by either population differences in female quality or deteriorating conditions for raising young.     

Malaria infection and feather growth rate predict reproductive success in house martins

Carry-over effects take place when events occurring in one season influence individual performance in a subsequent season. Blood parasites (e.g. Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) have strong negative effects on the body condition of their hosts and could slow the rate of feather growth on the wintering grounds. In turn, these winter moult costs could reduce reproductive success in the following breeding season. In house martins Delichon urbica captured and studied at a breeding site in Europe, we used ptilochronology to measure growth rate of tail feathers moulted on the winter range in Africa, and assessed infection status of blood parasites transmitted on the wintering grounds. We found a negative association between haemosporidian parasite infection status and inferred growth rate of tail feathers. A low feather growth rate and blood parasite infections were related to a delay in laying date in their European breeding quarters. In addition, clutch size and the number of fledglings were negatively related to a delayed laying date and blood parasite infection. These results stress the importance of blood parasites and feather growth rate as potentially mechanisms driving carry-over effects to explain fitness differences in wild populations of migratory birds.     

Consequences of a changing environment on the breeding phenology and reproductive success components in a long-distance migratory bird

Migratory birds have a narrow time window to breed, especially in the Arctic, where early nesting typically yields the highest reproductive success. We assessed temporal changes (1991–2015) in reproductive success components in relation to timing of breeding in greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica). This species breeds in the Canadian Arctic, a region that has experienced a strong warming trend. We tested the effect of laying or hatching date, year and their interaction on six reproductive components: Total clutch laid, nesting success, egg survival, hatching success, prefledging, and postfledging survival. Over 25 years, mean laying date changed little, even though it advanced 1.8 days in early breeders and was delayed 3 days in late breeders. Likewise, the number of eggs in nests initiated early in the season decreased by 0.6 egg, whereas in late nests it increased by 0.3 egg. Success of nests initiated early and late in the season was lower than nests initiated near the population mean, and consistently increased over time. The proportion of eggs surviving to partial predation and postfledging survival decreased with laying date but the pattern did not change over time. In contrast, prefledging survival was not affected by laying date initially but declined in nests initiated late in the season toward the end of the study. Overall, nests initiated close to the population mean showed little temporal change for most components of reproductive success and seem to be less affected by environmental change than nests initiated early and late in the season.     

Influence of Snowmelt Timing on the Diet Quality of Pyrenean Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta pyrenaica): Implications for Reproductive Success

The Pyrenean rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta pyrenaica) is the southernmost subspecies of the species in Europe and is considered threatened as a consequence of changes in landscape, human pressure, climate change, and low genetic diversity. Previous studies have shown a relationship between the date of snowmelt and reproductive success in the Pyrenean ptarmigan. It is well established that birds laying early in the breeding season have higher reproductive success, but the specific mechanism for this relationship is debated. We present an explicative model of the relationship between snowmelt date and breeding success mediated by food quality for grouse in alpine environments. From microhistological analyses of 121 faecal samples collected during three years in the Canigou Massif (Eastern Pyrenees), and the assessment of the chemical composition of the main dietary components, we estimated the potential quality of individual diets. Potential dietary quality was correlated with free-urate faecal N, a proxy of the digestible protein content ingested by ptarmigan, and both were correlated with phenological stage of consumed plants, which in turn depends on snowmelt date. Our findings suggest that the average snowmelt date is subject to a strong interannual variability influencing laying date. In years of early snowmelt, hens benefit from a longer period of high quality food resources potentially leading to a higher breeding success. On the contrary, in years of late snowmelt, hens begin their breeding period in poorer nutrient condition because the peaks of protein content of their main food items are delayed with respect to laying date, hence reducing breeding performance. We discuss the possible mismatch between breeding and snowmelt timing.     

The timing of breeding and offspring size in Great Tits Parus major

The relationship between the timing of breeding, offspring weight and offspring recruitment was investigated in two populations of Great Tits Parus major. In two of six seasons a significant negative correlation was found between laying date and fledgling weight, in three seasons the opposite was true and in one season no significant correlation existed between these variables. Offspring recruitment was quantified in five seasons, and late-nesting birds were found to produce significantly fewer recruiting offspring in two of these, the same two seasons when late fledglings had significantly lower weights. No significant correlation existed between the number of recruits and laying date in the three seasons when late fledglings were as heavy as or heavier than early fledglings. The potential detriment to reproductive success of lateness thus was offset when late-nesting parents managed to produce heavy young. Between-year variations in the seasonal pattern of reproductive success has previously been suggested to contribute to the maintenance of variability in the timing of breeding in Great Tits. In this paper we suggest that producing heavy offspring late in the season might be a proximate factor influencing the seasonal patterns of reproductive success. Producing heavy offspring late in the season is probably not a "strategy" but rather an effect of chance differences between years in the seasonal availability of food or the seasonality of other factors important for the nesting birds.     

Survival of Herring Gull Larus argentatus chicks: an experimental analysis of the need for early breeding

In 1985 and 1990, we manipulated the hatching date of Herring Gulls Larus argentatus by exchanging complete clutches between pairs which had started egg laying on different dates in the season. The aim was to investigate whether the observed seasonal decline in Hedging success can be explained by laying date. In both years, fledging success of advanced pairs followed the natural seasonal trend, supporting the date hypothesis. However, in both years, Hedging success of delayed pairs remained as high as that of control pairs with the same original hatching date as the foster parents, supporting the parental quality hypothesis. These data suggest that the delayed pairs may have compensated for less favourable environmental conditions. Although conspecific predation was the main direct cause of chick mortality, food shortage probably indirectly determined the mortality rate. A model of fledging success in relation to the timing of egg laying predicts that when food is abundant the optimal hatching date coincides with the mean hatching date of the colony (synchronization advantage). When food is less abundant, early breeders have the highest fledging success.