The basic reproduction number for scrapie.

The basic reproduction number R0 provides a quantitative assessment of the ability of an infectious agent to invade a susceptible host population. A mathematical expression for R0 is derived based on a recently developed model for the spread of scrapie through a flock of sheep. The model incorporates sheep demography, a long and variable incubation period, genetic variation in susceptibility to scrapie, and horizontal and vertical routes of transmission. The sensitivity of R0 to a range of epidemiologically important parameters is assessed and the effects of genetic variation in susceptibility are examined. A reduction in the frequency of the susceptibility allele reduces R0 most effectively when the allele is recessive, whereas inbreeding may increase R0 when the allele is recessive, increasing the chance of an outbreak. Using this formulation, R0 is calculated for an outbreak of scrapie in a flock of Cheviot sheep.     

Epidemiology and control of scrapie within a sheep flock.

Mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of scrapie are used to explore the expected course of an outbreak in a sheep flock, and the potential impacts of different control measures. All models incorporate sheep demography, a long and variable scrapie incubation period, horizontal and vertical routes of transmission and genetic variation in susceptibility. Outputs are compared for models which do and do not incorporate an environmental reservoir of infectivity, and which do and do not incorporate carrier genotypes. Numerical analyses using parameter values consistent with available data indicate that, in a closed flock, scrapie outbreaks may have a duration of several decades, reduce the frequency of susceptible genotypes, and may become endemic if carrier genotypes are present. In an open flock, endemic scrapie is possible even in the absence of carriers. Control measures currently or likely to become available may reduce the incidence of cases but may be fully effective only over a period of several years.     

Investigation of a Simple Model for Within-Flock Transmission of Scrapie

Genetic control programs for scrapie in sheep build on solid knowledge of how susceptibility to scrapie is modulated by the prion protein genotype at the level of an individual sheep. In order to satisfactorily analyze the effectivity of control programs at the population level, insight is needed at the flock level, i.e., how the grouping of sheep in flocks affects the population-level transmission risk. In particular, one would like to understand how this risk is affected by between-flock differences in genotype frequency distribution. A first step is to model the scrapie transmission risk within a flock as a function of the flock genotype profile. Here we do so by estimating parameters for a model of within-flock transmission using genotyping data on Dutch flocks affected by scrapie. We show that the data are consistent with a relatively simple transmission model assuming horizontal transmission and homogeneous mixing between animals. The model expresses the basic reproduction number for within-flock scrapie as a weighted average of genotype-specific susceptibilities, multiplied by a single overall transmission parameter. The value of the overall transmission parameter may vary between flocks to account for random between-flock variation in non-genetic determinants such as management practice. Here we provide an estimate of its mean value and variation for Dutch flocks.     

Epidemiological Characteristics of Classical Scrapie Outbreaks in 30 Sheep Flocks in the United Kingdom

Background

Most previous analyses of scrapie outbreaks have focused on flocks run by research institutes, which may not reflect the field situation. Within this study, we attempt to rectify this deficit by describing the epidemiological characteristics of 30 sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, and by exploring possible underlying causes of variation in the characteristics between flocks, including flock-level prion protein (PrP) genotype profile. In total, the study involved PrP genotype data for nearly 8600 animals and over 400 scrapie cases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We found that most scrapie cases were restricted to just two PrP genotypes (ARQ/VRQ and VRQ/VRQ), though two flocks had markedly different affected genotypes, despite having similar underlying genotype profiles to other flocks of the same breed; we identified differences amongst flocks in the age of cases of certain PrP genotypes; we found that the age-at-onset of clinical signs depended on peak incidence and flock type; we found evidence that purchasing infected animals is an important means of introducing scrapie to a flock; we found some evidence that flock-level PrP genotype profile and flock size account for variation in outbreak characteristics; identified seasonality in cases associated with lambing time in certain flocks; and we identified one case that was homozygous for phenylalanine at codon 141, a polymorphism associated with a very high risk of atypical scrapie, and 28 cases that were heterozygous at this codon.

Conclusions/Significance

This paper presents the largest study to date on commercially-run sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, involving 30 study flocks, more than 400 scrapie cases and over 8500 PrP genotypes. We show that some of the observed variation in epidemiological characteristics between farms is related to differences in their PrP genotype profile; although much remains unexplained and may instead be attributed to the stochastic nature of scrapie dynamics.     

Evidence in Sheep for Pre-Natal Transmission of Scrapie to Lambs from Infected Mothers

Natural scrapie transmission from infected ewes to their lambs is thought to occur by the oral route around the time of birth. However the hypothesis that scrapie transmission can also occur before birth (in utero) is not currently favoured by most researchers. As scrapie is an opportunistic infection with multiple infection routes likely to be functional in sheep, definitive evidence for or against transmission from ewe to her developing fetus has been difficult to achieve. In addition the very early literature on maternal transmission of scrapie in sheep was compromised by lack of knowledge of the role of the PRNP (prion protein) gene in control of susceptibility to scrapie. In this study we experimentally infected pregnant ewes of known PRNP genotype with a distinctive scrapie strain (SSBP/1) and looked for evidence of transmission of SSBP/1 to the offspring. The sheep were from the NPU Cheviot flock, which has endemic natural scrapie from which SSBP/1 can be differentiated on the basis of histology, genetics of disease incidence and strain typing bioassay in mice. We used embryo transfer techniques to allow sheep fetuses of scrapie-susceptible PRNP genotypes to develop in a range of scrapie-resistant and susceptible recipient mothers and challenged the recipients with SSBP/1. Scrapie clinical disease, caused by both natural scrapie and SSBP/1, occurred in the progeny but evidence (including mouse strain typing) of SSBP/1 infection was found only in lambs born to fully susceptible recipient mothers. Progeny were not protected from transmission of natural scrapie or SSBP/1 by washing of embryos to International Embryo Transfer Society standards or by caesarean derivation and complete separation from their birth mothers. Our results strongly suggest that pre-natal (in utero) transmission of scrapie may have occurred in these sheep.     

Implications of Conflicting Associations of the Prion Protein (PrP) Gene with Scrapie Susceptibility and Fitness on the Persistence of Scrapie

Background

Existing mathematical models for scrapie dynamics in sheep populations assume that the PrP gene is only associated with scrapie susceptibility and with no other fitness related traits. This assumption contrasts recent findings of PrP gene associations with post-natal lamb survival in scrapie free Scottish Blackface populations. Lambs with scrapie resistant genotypes were found to have significantly lower survival rates than those with susceptible genotypes. The present study aimed to investigate how these conflicting PrP gene associations may affect the dynamic patterns of PrP haplotype frequencies and disease prevalence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A deterministic mathematical model was developed to explore how the associations between PrP genotype and both scrapie susceptibility and postnatal lamb mortality affect the prevalence of scrapie and the associated change in PrP gene frequencies in a closed flock of sheep. The model incorporates empirical evidence on epidemiological and biological characteristics of scrapie and on mortality rates induced by causes other than scrapie. The model results indicate that unfavorable associations of the scrapie resistant PrP haplotypes with post-natal lamb mortality, if sufficiently strong, can increase scrapie prevalence during an epidemic, and result in scrapie persisting in the population. The range of model parameters, for which such effects were observed, is realistic but relatively narrow.

Conclusions/Significance

The results of the present model suggest that for most parameter combinations an unfavourable association between PrP genotype and post-natal lamb mortality does not greatly alter the dynamics of scrapie and, hence, would not have an adverse impact on a breeding programme. There were, however, a range of scenarios, narrow, but realistic, in which such an unfavourable association resulted in an increased prevalence and in the persistence of infection. Consequently, associations between PrP genotypes and fitness traits should be taken into account when designing future models and breeding programmes.     

The signature of scrapie: differences in the PrP genotype profile of scrapie-affected and scrapie-free UK sheep flocks.

The amino-acid sequence of the PrP protein plays an important role in determining whether sheep are susceptible to scrapie. Although the genetics of scrapie susceptibility are now well understood, there have been few studies of the PrP gene at the population level, especially in commercially farmed sheep. Here we describe the PrP genetic profiles of the breeding stock of four UK sheep flocks, comprising nearly 650 animals in total. Two flocks had been scrapie affected for about eight years and two were scrapie free. Scrapie-resistant PrP genotypes predominated in all flocks but highly susceptible genotypes were present in each case. The distribution of PrP genotypes was similar in the scrapie-affected and scrapie-free flocks. The former, however, showed a slight but significant skew towards more susceptible genotypes despite their previous losses of susceptible sheep. Surprisingly, this skew was apparent in younger, but not older, sheep. We suggest that these patterns may occur if sheep flocks destined to become scrapie affected are predisposed by a genetic profile skewed towards susceptibility. The age structure of the scrapie-affected flocks suggests that the number of losses attributable directly or indirectly to scrapie considerably exceeds that recognized by the farmers, and also that significant losses may occur even in sheep of a moderately susceptible genotype. Similar patterns were not detected in the scrapie-free flocks, indicating that these losses are associated with scrapie infection as well as genotype.     

Comparative Susceptibility of Sheep of Different Origins,Breeds and PRNP Genotypes to Challenge with Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and Scrapie

Sheep are natural hosts of the prion disease, scrapie. They are also susceptible to experimental challenge with various scrapie strains and with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), which affects cattle and has been accidentally transmitted to a range of other species, including man. Incidence and incubation period of clinical disease in sheep following inoculation is controlled by the PRNP gene, which has different alleles defined on the basis of polymorphisms, particularly at codons 136, 154 and 171, although other codons are associated with survival time, and the exact responses of the sheep may be influenced by other breed-related differences. Here we report the results of a long term single study of experimental scrapie and BSE susceptibility of sheep of Cheviot, Poll Dorset and Suffolk breeds, originating from New Zealand and of a wide range of susceptible and resistant PRNP genotypes. Responses were compared with those of sheep from a closed Cheviot flock of UK origin (Roslin Cheviot flock). The unusually long observation period (6–8 years for most, but up to 12 years for others) allows us to draw robust conclusions about rates of survival of animals previously regarded as resistant to infection, particularly PRNP heterozygotes, and is the most comprehensive such study reported to date. BSE inoculation by an intracerebral route produced disease in all genotype groups with differing incubation periods, although M112T and L141F polymorphisms seemed to give some protection. Scrapie isolate SSBP/1, which has the shortest incubation period in sheep with at least one VRQ PRNP allele, also produced disease following sub-cutaneous inoculation in ARQ/ARQ animals of New Zealand origin, but ARQ/ARQ sheep from the Roslin flock survived the challenge. Our results demonstrate that the links between PRNP genotype and clinical prion disease in sheep are much less secure than previously thought, and may break down when, for example, a different breed of sheep is moved into a new flock.     

Modelling the national scrapie eradication programme in the UK.

In accordance with a policy to eliminate all transmissible spongiform encephalopathies from the food chain, a national untargeted ram breeding programme to eliminate scrapie in the UK is in the final stages of planning. Here we formulate a model of flock-to-flock scrapie transmission, in order to consider the effect of a targeted breeding programme which is in the early stages of consideration. We estimate the size of the susceptible flock population, and discuss implications for potential control programmes. Targeting all rams and ewes in highly susceptible flocks rather than rams in all flocks will eradicate scrapie more quickly, and so is likely to be beneficial as long as suitable penalties or incentives are available to facilitate their identification. A more restricted programme aimed only at highly affected flocks would be much easier to implement and crucially will eradicate scrapie just as quickly. This will leave behind a residue population of susceptible sheep, which could then be gradually removed by a more general breeding programme.     

A centuries-long epidemic of scrapie in British sheep?

The apparent persistence of scrapie in British sheep for more than 250 years is difficult to explain. Susceptibility to scrapie is associated with particular alleles at a single locus, the PrP gene. As the only known effect of these alleles is to confer susceptibility to a fatal disease, natural selection is expected to reduce their frequency, as has been observed in practice during scrapie outbreaks in single sheep flocks. Susceptibility alleles, and hence scrapie itself, are therefore expected to become rare, yet the disease remains widespread. We suggest that the paradox of scrapie's persistence can be explained by the exceptionally long time-scales inherent in the epidemiology of the disease. It is proposed that scrapie should be regarded as epidemic in British sheep but, unlike more familiar epidemics, which have time-scales of months or years, the scrapie epidemic has a time-scale of centuries. This interpretation implies that scrapie should eventually disappear from the sheep population.     

Genotype-dependent Molecular Evolution of Sheep Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Prions in Vitro Affects Their Zoonotic Potential

Prion diseases are rare fatal neurological conditions of humans and animals, one of which (variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease) is known to be a zoonotic form of the cattle disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). What makes one animal prion disease zoonotic and others not is poorly understood, but it appears to involve compatibility between the prion strain and the host prion protein sequence. Concerns have been raised that the United Kingdom sheep flock may have been exposed to BSE early in the cattle BSE epidemic and that serial BSE transmission in sheep might have resulted in adaptation of the agent, which may have come to phenotypically resemble scrapie while maintaining its pathogenicity for humans. We have modeled this scenario in vitro. Extrapolation from our results suggests that if BSE were to infect sheep in the field it may, with time and in some sheep genotypes, become scrapie-like at the molecular level. However, the results also suggest that if BSE in sheep were to come to resemble scrapie it would lose its ability to affect humans.     

Failure to transmit scrapie infection by transferring preimplantation embryos from naturally infected donor sheep

The objective of the study was to examine whether or not the preimplantation embryo can act as a carrier of classic scrapie infection. The study was carried out on quarantined premises with sheep of highly susceptible scrapie genotypes. Uninfected embryos, collected from New Zealand–derived Suffolk ewes, were surgically transferred into recipient ewes that were also of New Zealand origin. Seventeen negative control lambs were born on the study premises from these embryo transfers. Thirty-nine experimental lambs were from embryos collected from naturally infected donor ewes. The experimental lambs were also born on the study premises after their surgical transfer into recipient ewes of New Zealand origin. These embryos had been collected from donor ewes in a scrapie-infected flock where the ewes were clinically sick with scrapie or developed clinical scrapie after embryo collection. All lambs were confirmed as scrapie susceptible of the ARQ/ARQ genotype. Twenty-eight experimental animals survived to the end point of the study at 5 yr of age with a mean survival of 1579 d. In the negative control group, 12 of 17 sheep survived to 5 yr of age with a mean survival of 1508 d. Postmortem examinations were carried out on all animals derived by embryo transfer, and in none was histologic or immunohistochemical evidence of scrapie found. In contrast, in the originating flock the majority of scrapie cases occurred in ARQ/ARQ genotyped animals where a 56% mortality from scrapie had been recorded in animals of this genotype. Thus, the study provides no evidence for transmission of scrapie and reinforces published evidence that vertical transmission of scrapie may be circumvented by embryo transfer procedures.     

PrP(c) mRNA, but not PrP(Sc) is found in the salivary glands of scrapie-infected sheep

Transmission studies in transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) have become increasingly important due to the possible transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy to humans resulting in new variant Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease. The horizontal transmission of scrapie, a TSE of sheep, is poorly understood. Possible sources of horizontal transmission are the submandibular and parotid salivary glands. TSEs like natural sheep scrapie are characterized by the conversion of a normal protease sensitive prion protein, PrP(c), to an abnormal protease resistant prion protein, PrP(Sc). Since the presence of PrP(Sc) is an indicator of disease, the salivary glands of scrapie-infected sheep were examined for the presence of PrP(Sc). Although PrP(c) mRNA was detected in the salivary glands, PrP(Sc) was not found in the salivary glands of scrapie-infected sheep. These data suggest that the salivary glands are unlikely sources of horizontal transmission of natural sheep scrapie.     

Quantitative estimation of genetic risk for atypical scrapie in French sheep and potential consequences of the current breeding programme for resistance to scrapie on the risk of atypical scrapie

Background

Since 2002, active surveillance programmes have detected numerous atypical scrapie (AS) and classical scrapie cases (CS) in French sheep with almost all the PrP genotypes. The aim of this study was 1) to quantify the genetic risk of AS in French sheep and to compare it with the risk of CS, 2) to quantify the risk of AS associated with the increase of the ARR allele frequency as a result of the current genetic breeding programme against CS.

Methods

We obtained genotypes at codons 136, 141, 154 and 171 of the PRNP gene for representative samples of 248 AS and 245 CS cases. We used a random sample of 3,317 scrapie negative animals genotyped at codons 136, 154 and 171 and we made inferences on the position 141 by multiple imputations, using external data. To estimate the risk associated with PrP genotypes, we fitted multivariate logistic regression models and we estimated the prevalence of AS for the different genotypes. Then, we used the risk of AS estimated for the ALRR-ALRR genotype to analyse the risk of detecting an AS case in a flock homogenous for this genotype.

Results

Genotypes most at risk for AS were those including an AFRQ or ALHQ allele while genotypes including a VLRQ allele were less commonly associated with AS. Compared to ALRQ-ALRQ, the ALRR-ALRR genotype was significantly at risk for AS and was very significantly protective for CS. The prevalence of AS among ALRR-ALRR animals was 0.6‰ and was not different from the prevalence in the general population.

Conclusion

In conclusion, further selection of ALRR-ALRR animals will not result in an overall increase of AS prevalence in the French sheep population although this genotype is clearly susceptible to AS. However the probability of detecting AS cases in flocks participating in genetic breeding programme against CS should be considered.     

Assessment of the genetic susceptibility of sheep to scrapie by protein misfolding cyclic amplification and comparison with experimental scrapie transmission studies

The susceptibility of sheep to scrapie is influenced mainly by the prion protein polymorphisms A136V, R154H, and Q171R/H. Here we analyzed the ability of protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA) to model the genetic susceptibility of sheep to scrapie. For this purpose, we studied the efficiency of brain homogenates from sheep with different PrP genotypes to support PrP^Sc amplification by PMCA using an ARQ/ARQ scrapie inoculum. The results were then compared with those obtained in vivo using the same sheep breed, genotypes, and scrapie inoculum. Genotypes associated with susceptibility (ARQ/ARQ, ARQ/AHQ, and AHQ/ARH) were able to sustain PrP^Sc amplification in PMCA reactions, while genotypes associated with resistance to scrapie (ARQ/ARR and ARR/ARR) were unable to support the in vitro conversion. The incubation times of the experimental infection were then compared with the in vitro amplification factors. Linear regression analysis showed that the efficiency of in vitro PrP^Sc amplification of the different genotypes was indeed inversely proportional to their incubation times. Finally, the rare ARQK₁₇₆/ARQK₁₇₆ genotype, for which no in vivo data are available, was studied by PMCA. No amplification was obtained, suggesting ARQK₁₇₆/ARQK₁₇₆ as an additional genotype associated with resistance, at least to the isolate tested. Our results indicate a direct correlation between the ability of different PrP genotypes to undergo PrP^C-to-PrP^Sc conversion by PMCA and their in vivo susceptibility and point to PMCA as an alternative to transmission studies and a potential tool to test the susceptibility of numerous sheep PrP genotypes to a variety of prion sources.     

The transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent of scrapie in a sheep flock

We formulate and investigate the properties of a model framework to mimic the transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent of scrapie in a sheep flock. We derive expressions for summary parameters that characterize transmission scenarios, notably the basic reproduction number R(0) and the mean generation time T(g). The timescale of epidemic outbreaks is expressed in terms of R(0) and cumulants of the generation time distribution. We discuss the relative contributions to the overall rate of transmission of horizontal and vertical routes during invasion and in endemicity. Simplified models are used to obtain analytical insight into the characteristics of the endemic state.     

Transferrin polymorphism in Herdwick sheep

The transferrin system in Herdwick sheep, bred at Compton, was investigated with special reference to the susceptibility of the flock to experimentally produced scrapie. No significant correlations were observed between susceptibility and transferrin phenotypes.     

The oral secretion of infectious scrapie prions occurs in preclinical sheep with a range of PRNP genotypes

Preclinical sheep with the highly scrapie-susceptible VRQ/VRQ PRNP genotype secrete prions from the oral cavity. In order to further understand the significance of orally available prions, buccal swabs were taken from sheep with a range of PRNP genotypes and analyzed by serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA). Prions were detected in buccal swabs from scrapie-exposed sheep of genotypes linked to high (VRQ/VRQ and ARQ/VRQ) and low (ARR/VRQ and AHQ/VRQ) lymphoreticular system involvement in scrapie pathogenesis. For both groups, the level of prion detection was significantly higher than that for scrapie-resistant ARR/ARR sheep which were kept in the same farm environment and acted as sentinel controls for prions derived from the environment which might contaminate the oral cavity. In addition, sheep with no exposure to the scrapie agent did not contain any measurable prions within the oral cavity. Furthermore, prions were detected in sheep over a wide age range representing various stages of preclinical disease. These data demonstrate that orally available scrapie prions may be a common feature in sheep incubating scrapie, regardless of the PRNP genotype and any associated high-level accumulation of PrP(Sc) within lymphoreticular tissues. PrP(Sc) was present in buccal swabs from a large proportion of sheep with PRNP genotypes associated with relatively low disease penetrance, indicating that subclinical scrapie infection is likely to be a common occurrence. The significance of positive sPMCA reactions was confirmed by the transmission of infectivity in buccal swab extracts to Tg338 mice, illustrating the likely importance of orally available prions in the horizontal transmission of scrapie.     

Transferrin polymorphism in Herdwick sheep.

The transferrin system in Herdwick sheep, bred at Compton, was investigated with special reference to the susceptibility of the flock to experimentally produced scrapie. No significant correlations were observed between susceptibility and transferrin phenotypes.     

An economic evaluation of preclinical testing strategies compared to the compulsory scrapie flock scheme in the control of classical scrapie

Cost-benefit is rarely combined with nonlinear dynamic models when evaluating control options for infectious diseases. The current strategy for scrapie in Great Britain requires that all genetically susceptible livestock in affected flocks be culled (Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme or CSFS). However, this results in the removal of many healthy sheep, and a recently developed pre-clinical test for scrapie now offers a strategy based on disease detection. We explore the flock level cost-effectiveness of scrapie control using a deterministic transmission model and industry estimates of costs associated with genotype testing, pre-clinical tests and the value of a sheep culled. Benefit was measured in terms of the reduction in the number of infected sheep sold on, compared to a baseline strategy of doing nothing, using Incremental Cost Effectiveness analysis to compare across strategies. As market data was not available for pre-clinical testing, a threshold analysis was used to set a unit-cost giving equal costs for CSFS and multiple pre-clinical testing (MT, one test each year for three consecutive years). Assuming a 40% within-flock proportion of susceptible genotypes and a test sensitivity of 90%, a single test (ST) was cheaper but less effective than either the CSFS or MT strategies (30 infected-sales-averted over the lifetime of the average epidemic). The MT strategy was slightly less effective than the CSFS and would be a dominated strategy unless preclinical testing was cheaper than the threshold price of ￡6.28, but may be appropriate for flocks with particularly valuable livestock. Though the ST is not currently recommended, the proportion of susceptible genotypes in the national flock is likely to continue to decrease; this may eventually make it a cost-effective alternative to the MT or CSFS.