Non-linear feedback processes and a latitudinal gradient in the climatic effects determine green spruce aphid outbreaks in the UK

The role of climatic fluctuations in determining the dynamics of insect populations has been a classical problem in population ecology. Here, we use long-term annual data on green spruce aphid populations at nine localities in the UK for determining the importance of endogenous processes, local weather and large-scale climatic factors. We rely on diagnostic and modelling tools from population dynamic theory to analyse these long-term data and to determine the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local weather as exogenous factors influencing aphid dynamics. Our modelling suggests that the key elements determining population fluctuations in green spruce aphid populations in the UK are the strong non-linear feedback structure, the high potential for population growth and the effects of winter and spring weather. The results indicate that the main effect of the NAO on green spruce aphid populations is operating through the effect of winter temperatures on the maximum per capita growth rate (R_m). In particular, we can predict quite accurately the occurrence of an outbreak by using a simple logistic model with weather as a perturbation effect. However, model predictions using different climatic variables showed a clear geographical signature. The NAO and winter temperature were best for predicting observed dynamics toward the southern localities, while spring temperature was a much better predictor of aphid dynamics at northern localities. Although aphid species are characterized by complex life-cycles, we emphasize the value of simple and general population dynamic models in predicting their dynamics.     

Northern Atlantic Oscillation effects on the temporal and spatial dynamics of green spruce aphid populations in the UK

1. The role of climate variability in determining the spatial and temporal patterns of numerical fluctuations is a central problem in ecology. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index on the population dynamics and spatial synchrony of the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum across the UK was shown. 2. Fifteen overlapping time series within the UK were analysed; we used nonparametric models for determining the feedback nonlinear structure and the climatic effects. The spatial synchrony of these populations and the relationship between synchrony and NAO was estimated. 3. From the 15 time series across the UK, 11 showed positive and significant NAO effects. In most of the cases the NAO effects were nonlinear showing strong negative effects of low values. The NAO variation improve the explained variance of the first-order feedback models in 14.5%; ranging from 0% to 48%. All data showed strong-nonlinear (concave) feedback structure. In most of the localities the explained variance by the first-order feedback was about 50-60%. 4. The spatial synchrony of the per capita growth rates and residuals is high across long distances for those populations affected by NAO. The correlation function predicts a spatial scale of synchrony of about 350-400 km for NAO influenced populations. 5. We think that simple population theoretical models describing the link between NAO fluctuations and green spruce aphid dynamics may be fundamental for predicting and simulating the consequences of different climatic scenarios of the future.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes –- two variations on a general theme

Long‐term data on water temperature, phytoplankton biovolume, Bosmina and Daphnia abundance and the timing of the clear‐water phase were compared and analysed with respect to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in two strongly contrasting lakes in central Europe. In small, shallow, hypertrophic Müggelsee, spring water temperatures and Daphnia abundance both increased more rapidly than in large, deep, meso/oligotrophic Lake Constance. Because of this, the clear‐water phase commenced approximately three weeks earlier in Müggelsee than in Lake Constance. In Müggelsee, the phytoplankton biovolume during late winter/early spring was related to the NAO index. In Lake Constance, where phytoplankton growth was inhibited by intense downward mixing during all years studied, this was not the case. However, in both lakes, interannual variability in water temperature, in Daphnia spring population dynamics and in the timing of the clear‐water phase, were all related to the interannual variability of the NAO index. The Daphnia spring population dynamics and the timing of the clear‐water phase appear to be synchronized by the NAO despite large differences between the lakes in morphometry, trophic status and flushing and mixis regimes, and despite the great distance between the lakes (～700 km). This suggests that a great variety of lakes in central Europe may possibly have exhibited similar interannual variability during the last 20 years.     

Study of the effect of vaccination on periodic structures of measles epidemics in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of vaccination on periodic structures of measles epidemics in Japan. We carried out spectral analysis for time series data of measles notifications collected in Japan. It was confirmed that the interepidemic period, which corresponds to the interval between major epidemics of measles, increases as the vaccination ratio increases. This result was supported by a theory based on a mathematical model for epidemics of infectious diseases. It was suggested that the interepidemic period is useful to estimate the effect of vaccination on measles incidences quantitatively.     

Implications of vaccination and waning immunity

For infectious diseases where immunization can offer lifelong protection, a variety of simple models can be used to explain the utility of vaccination as a control method. However, for many diseases, immunity wanes over time and is subsequently enhanced (boosted) by asymptomatic encounters with the infection. The study of this type of epidemiological process requires a model formulation that can capture both the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and immune system as well as the associated population-level transmission dynamics. Here, we parametrize such a model for measles and show how vaccination can have a range of unexpected consequences as it reduces the natural boosting of immunity as well as reducing the number of naive susceptibles. In particular, we show that moderate waning times (40–80 years) and high levels of vaccination (greater than 70%) can induce large-scale oscillations with substantial numbers of symptomatic cases being generated at the peak. In addition, we predict that, after a long disease-free period, the introduction of infection will lead to far larger epidemics than that predicted by standard models. These results have clear implications for the long-term success of any vaccination campaign and highlight the need for a sound understanding of the immunological mechanisms of immunity and vaccination.     

North Atlantic Oscillation influences on radial growth of Pinus pinea on the Italian mid-Tyrrhenian coast

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most important source of winter atmospheric variability in the northern hemisphere. NAO inversely reflects the precipitation regime, which plays a fundamental role in Mediterranean regions, e.g., by recharging the water table. As no attempt has been made thus far to analyze the relationship between NAO variability and tree radial growth in coastal Mediterranean conifers, this paper identifies the monthly, winter, annual, and decadal influence of NAO on tree-ring chronologies of six planted Pinus pinea L. populations distributed along the Tyrrhenian coasts of central Italy. Through multidimensional analyses, we identified tree-ring chronology associations in two main groups. The influence of NAO on the regional chronologies was identified with correlation functions for the comparison period between 1949 and 2003 at both annual and decadal timescales. Results indicate that winter NAO influence on radial tree growth at annual and decadal timescales may depend on geographical location, site characteristics, and the age structure of tree-ring chronologies. These results contribute to a better understanding of the P. pinea coastal forest ecology and provide evidence of large-scale climatic forcings that influence forest Mediterranean ecosystems.     

Paradoxical effects of coupling infectious livestock populations and imposing transport restrictions

Spatial heterogeneity of a host population of mobile agents has been shown to be a crucial determinant of many aspects of disease dynamics, ranging from the proliferation of diseases to their persistence and to vaccination strategies. In addition, the importance of regional and structural differences grows in our modern world. Little is known, though, about the consequences when traits of a disease vary regionally. In this paper, we study the effect of a spatially varying per capita infection rate on the behaviour of livestock diseases. We show that the prevalence of an infectious livestock disease in a community of animals can paradoxically decrease owing to transport connections to other communities in which the risk of infection is higher. We study the consequences for the design of livestock transportation restriction measures and establish exact criteria to discriminate those connections that increase the level of infection in the community from those that decrease it.     

Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment

Several aspects of terrestrial ecosystems are known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through effects of the NAO on winter climate, but recently the winter NAO has also been shown to be correlated with the following summer climate, including drought. Since drought is a major factor determining grassland primary productivity, the hypothesis was tested that the winter NAO is associated with summer herbage growth through soil moisture availability, using data from the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted, UK between 1960 and 1999. The herbage growth rate, mean daily rainfall, mean daily potential evapotranspiration (PE) and the mean and maximum potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) were calculated between the two annual cuts in early summer and autumn for the unlimed, unfertilized plots. Mean and maximum PSMD were more highly correlated than rainfall or PE with herbage growth rate. Regression analysis showed that the natural logarithm of the herbage growth rate approximately halved for a 250 mm increase in maximum PSMD over the range 50-485 mm. The maximum PSMD was moderately correlated with the preceding winter NAO, with a positive winter NAO index associated with greater maximum PSMD. A positive winter NAO index was also associated with low herbage growth rate, accounting for 22% of the interannual variation in the growth rate. It was concluded that the association between the winter NAO and summer herbage growth rate is mediated by the PSMD in summer.     

Links between large-scale anomalies, rainfall and wine quality in the Iberian Peninsula during the last three decades

Recent strong El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals have been identified in precipitation records from the Iberian Peninsula. Interannual association with ENSO accounts for more than half the total annual variance in selected stations of the south‐east, with ENSO leading rainfall by one year. In contrast, association with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at the Westernmost stations is much lower (25%). The potential of simple linear models is tested in the ENSO‐sensitive area, suggesting high capability of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for predicting interannual rainfall fluctuations (mainly droughts and floods). Wine quality is associated with several factors, e.g. grape variety, soil type and processing, which can be considered invariable, mainly due to the strict regulations imposed by the quality regulating councils. Climate, however, has a great influence on resulting wine quality, and represents the most important source of variability at both short (day‐to‐day) and long (interannual) time scales. Over the last 30 years, high‐quality harvests in the five main wine regions in Spain, show a high probability (P < 0.0002) of being associated with an El Niño event occurring the same year or the year before. NAO influence is not significant during the same period. Thus, apart from considering the role of local climatic conditions in certain regions, which favour the production of excellent wines, larger‐scale climatic phenomena appear responsible for the year‐to‐year variations in quality.     

Phenological changes in the Northwestern Mediterranean copepods <Emphasis Type="Italic">Centropages typicus</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Temora stylifera</Emphasis> linked to climate forcing

Planktonic copepods play a major role in the fluxes of matter and energy in the marine ecosystem, provide a biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean, and play a role in determining fish recruitment. Owing to such ecological considerations, it is essential to understand the role that climate might play in the interannual variability of these organisms and the mechanisms by which it could modify the ecosystem functioning. In this study, a causal chain of meteorological, hydrological and ecological processes linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was identified in the Ligurian Sea, Northwestern Mediterranean. The forcing by the NAO drives most of the hydro-climatic variability during winter and early spring. Subsequently, interannual and decadal changes of the dominant copepods Centropages typicus and Temora stylifera were significantly correlated to the state of the hydro-climatic signal and tightly coupled to the NAO. Direct and indirect effects whose influence promoted phenological changes in the two copepod populations drove the species’ responses to climatic forcing. Opposite responses of the analysed species were also highlighted by these results. While years characterized by the positive phase of the NAO leads to enhancement of the strength and the forward move of the C. typicus peak, they act negatively on the annual cycle of T. stylifera, the abundance of which drops twofold and the annual peak appears delayed in time. In contrast, low NAO years lead to high abundance of T. stylifera and a forward timing of its peak, and acts in turn negatively on the C. typicus annual cycle in both abundance (low) and timing (delayed). Owing to the synchronism between hydro-climatic conditions and the NAO, and the major role of these species in the pelagic ecosystem of the studied area, these results provide key elements for interpreting and forecasting decadal changes of planktonic populations in the Ligurian Sea.     

剑阁县2001～2010 年法定传染病流行特征及防治对策分析

目的:通过分析10年法定传染病疲情的流行趋势和三间分布特征,为制定传染病预防控制策略和措施提供依据.方法:采用描述性流行病学方法分析疫情趋势和三间分布情况,数据资料用SPSS10.0和Excel 2003进行统计分析.结果:2001～2010年共报告乙、丙类传染病25种26 129例,年均发病率386.89/10万,年均死亡率0.15/10万,10年间报告法定传染病以血源及性传播传染病和呼吸道传染病为主,居第1位的是血源及性传播传染病,共报告5种12 453例,占53.03％;其次是呼吸道传染病,共报告5种9828例,占41.85％,近3年发病居于各类传染病首位;第三位的是肠道传染病,共报5种1149例,占4.89％.发病居前5位的传染为乙肝、肺结核、流行性腮腺炎、痢疾、麻疹,主要传染病以乙肝、肺结核为主,近年性传播疾病呈快速增长趋势.结论:血源及性传播传染病和呼吸道传染病是今后重点防控传染病.     

Sub-saharan desertification and productivity are linked to hemispheric climate variability

Vegetation productivity and desertification in sub‐Saharan Africa may be influenced by global climate variability attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Combined and individual effects of the NAO and ENSO indices revealed that 75% of the interannual variation in the area of Sahara Desert was accounted for by the combined effects, with most variance attributable to the NAO. Effects were shown in the latitudinal variation on the 200 mm isocline, which was influenced mostly by the NAO. The combined indices explained much of the interannual variability in vegetation productivity in the Sahelian zone and southern Africa, implying that both the NAO and ENSO may be useful for monitoring effects of global climate change in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Reassessing the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the sub-Saharan vegetation productivity

The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been shown to have a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem in the Sahelian region of Africa during the 1980s, and it has been strongly suggested that NAO may be a reliable predictor for the response of the Sahelian ecosystem to global climate variability. Using data from an extended period, we provide a reassessment for the impact of NAO on the Sahelian climate and ecosystem, and show that there is no consistent relationship between NAO and the ecosystem over Sahel. Statistical analysis on the NAO, vegetation, and precipitation data indicates that NAO influences the Sahelian vegetation productivity exclusively through its impact on precipitation. However, the relationship between the NAO index and Sahelian precipitation varies substantially with time. The correlation coefficient fluctuates between positive and negative values, and does not pass the 5% significance test during most of the twentieth century. The NAO system, although documented to govern the ecosystem dynamics over many other regions, does not have a consistent impact on the ecosystem over the Sahel. Therefore, the NAO index cannot produce a useful prediction on the ecosystem variability and changes in this region. This study provides an example that correlations based on short climate and ecological records (less than 20 years in this case) can be spurious and potentially misleading.     

Climate, food, density and wildlife population growth rate

1. The aim of this study was to derive and evaluate a priori models of the relationship between annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) and climate. These were derived from the numerical response of annual r and food, and the effect of climate on a parameter in the numerical response. The goodness of fit of a range of such deductive models to data on annual r of Soay sheep and red deer were evaluated using information-theoretic (AICc-based) analyses. 2. The analysis for sheep annual r showed negative effects of abundance and negative effects of the interaction of abundance and climate, measured as March rainfall (and winter NAO) in the best fitting models. The analysis for deer annual r showed a negative effect of deer abundance and a positive effect of climate measured as March rainfall (but a negative effect of winter NAO), but no interaction of abundance and climate in the best fitting models. 3. There was most support in the analysis of sheep dynamics for the ratio numerical response and the assumption that parameter J (equilibrium food per animal) was influenced by climate. In the analysis of deer dynamics there was most support for the numerical responses assuming effects of food and density (Ivlev and density, food and density, and additive responses) and slightly less support for the ratio numerical response. The evaluation of such models would be aided by the collection of and incorporation of food data into the analyses.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation synchronises fruit production in western European forests

Weather and its lagged effects have been associated with interannual variability and synchrony of fruit production for several tree species. Such relationships are used often in hypotheses relating interannual variability in fruit production with tree resources or favourable pollinating conditions and with synchrony in fruit production among sites through the Moran effect (the synchronisation of biological processes among populations driven by meteorological variability) or the local availability of pollen. Climatic teleconnections, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), representing weather packages, however, have rarely been correlated with fruit production, despite often being better predictors of ecological processes than is local weather. The aim of this study was to test the utility of seasonal NAO indices for predicting interannual variability and synchrony in fruit production using data from 76 forests of Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus petraea, and Q. robur distributed across central Europe. Interannual variability in fruit production for all species was significantly correlated with seasonal NAO indices, which were more prominently important predictors than local meteorological variables. The relationships identified by these analyses indicated that proximal causes were mostly responsible for the interannual variability in fruit production, supporting the premise that local tree resources and favourable pollinating conditions are needed to produce large fruit crops. Synchrony in fruit production between forests was mainly associated with weather and geographical distance among sites. Also, fruit production for a given year was less variable among sites during warm and dry springs (negative spring NAO phases). Our results identify the Moran effect as the most likely mechanism for synchronisation of fruit production at large geographical scales and the possibility that pollen availability plays a role in synchronising fruit production at local scales. Our results highlight the influence of the NAO on the patterns of fruit production across western Europe.     

Realistic population dynamics in epidemiological models: the impact of population decline on the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases. Measles in Italy as an example

Most contributions in the field of mathematical modelling of childhood infectious diseases transmission dynamics have focused on stationary or exponentially growing populations. In this paper an epidemiological model with realistic demography is used to investigate the impact of the non-equilibrium conditions typical of the transition to sustained below replacement fertility (BRF) recently observed in a number of western countries, upon the transmission dynamics of measles. The results depend on the manner we model the relation between the (changing) age distribution of the population and contacts. Under some circumstances the transitional ageing phase typical of BRF populations might complexly interact with epidemiological variables leading to (i) a substantial reduction in the amount of vaccination effort required for eliminating the disease; (ii) a significant magnification of the perverse impact of vaccination in terms of the burden of severe age related morbidity.     

Impact of Birth Seasonality on Dynamics of Acute Immunizing Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa

We analyze the impact of birth seasonality (seasonal oscillations in the birth rate) on the dynamics of acute, immunizing childhood infectious diseases. Previous research has explored the effect of human birth seasonality on infectious disease dynamics using parameters appropriate for the developed world. We build on this work by including in our analysis an extended range of baseline birth rates and amplitudes, which correspond to developing world settings. Additionally, our analysis accounts for seasonal forcing both in births and contact rates. We focus in particular on the dynamics of measles. In the absence of seasonal transmission rates or stochastic forcing, for typical measles epidemiological parameters, birth seasonality induces either annual or biennial epidemics. Changes in the magnitude of the birth fluctuations (birth amplitude) can induce significant changes in the size of the epidemic peaks, but have little impact on timing of disease epidemics within the year. In contrast, changes to the birth seasonality phase (location of the peak in birth amplitude within the year) significantly influence the timing of the epidemics. In the presence of seasonality in contact rates, at relatively low birth rates (20 per 1000), birth amplitude has little impact on the dynamics but does have an impact on the magnitude and timing of the epidemics. However, as the mean birth rate increases, both birth amplitude and phase play an important role in driving the dynamics of the epidemic. There are stronger effects at higher birth rates.     

Deriving a new phenological indicator of interannual net carbon exchange in contrasting boreal deciduous and evergreen forests

Phenology is an important variable affecting the annual net ecosystem production (NEP) of terrestrial ecosystems. A new phenological indicator was proposed based on the ratio of respiration season length and growing season length (respiration–growth length ratio, RGR). Validation of this new phenological indicator was conducted using continuous flux measurements at contrasting boreal deciduous and evergreen forests in Canada. Analyses based on yearly anomalies of both annual NEP and phenological indicators indicated that the RGR can explain more proportion of interannual NEP variability compared to existing phenological metrics, including the carbon uptake period and the autumn lag. A multivariate regression model was used to predict the respiration–growth length ratio anomaly using anomalies of spring air temperature, autumn radiation and soil water content (SWC), which serves as a prerequisite for this indicator being scaled up for regional applications where flux data were unavailable. By normalization growing season length, interannual NEP showed comparable sensitivity to RGR variations of different plant functional types, which is a great advantage over other phenological indicators. The high potential of RGR in explaining interannual NEP variability may highlight the importance of respiration process in controlling annual NEP, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated in existing phenological studies. The comparable sensitivity of RGR to annual NEP observed at different plant functional types would favor its application in tracking interannual variability of NEP regionally and complementary to existing indices to promote our understanding of carbon sequestration with future climate change.     

The Effects of Interannual Rainfall Variability on Tree–Grass Composition Along Kalahari Rainfall Gradient

Precipitation variability has been predicted to increase in a global warmer climate, and is expected to greatly affect plant growth, interspecies interactions, plant community composition, and other ecosystem processes. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of intra-annual rainfall variability on plant growth and ecosystem dynamics, the impacts of interannual rainfall variability remain understudied. This paper uses satellite data and develops a new mechanistic model to investigate the response of tree–grass composition to increasing interannual rainfall variability in arid to sub-humid ecosystems along the Kalahari Transect in Southern Africa. Both satellite data and model results show that increasing interannual rainfall fluctuations favor deep-rooted trees over shallow-rooted grasses in drier environments (that is, mean annual rainfall, MAP < 900–1000 mm) but favor grasses over trees in wetter environments (that is, MAP > 900–1000 mm). Trees have a competitive advantage over grasses in dry environments because their generally deeper root systems allow them to have exclusive access to the increased deep soil water resources expected to occur in wet years as a result of the stronger interannual rainfall fluctuations. In relatively wet environments, grasses are favored because of their high growth rate that allows them to take advantage of the window of opportunity existing in years with above average precipitation and thus increase fire-induced tree mortality. Thus, under increasing interannual rainfall fluctuations both direct effects on soil water availability and indirect effects mediated by tree–grass interactions and fire dynamics are expected to play an important role in determining changes in plant community composition.