Decline of a montane Mediterranean pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in relation to climate

Certain populations of long‐distance migratory birds are suffering declines, which may be attributed to effects of climate change. In this article, we have analysed a long‐term (1991–2015) data set on a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population breeding in nest‐boxes in a Mediterranean montane oak forest, exploring the trends in population size due to changes in nestling recruitment, female survival and female immigration. We have related these changes in population parameters to local climate, winter NAO index and to breeding density. During the last 25 yr the population has declined by half, mainly in association with a decrease in nestling mass and structural size which had repercussions on the probability of nestling recruitment to the population. Lower local nestling recruitment in certain years was linked to lower female immigration rate in the same years. On the other hand, the local survival of females remained stable throughout the study period. Laying date and breeding success were negatively affected by local temperatures while breeding, recruitment rate likewise by minimum temperature prior to breeding in April. As minimum April temperatures have increased across the study period, this may have affected recruitment and immigration rates negatively. On the other hand, tarsus length and body mass of nestlings were positively associated with winter NAO index, pointing to more global climatic links. Moreover, there was also a negative temporal trend in body mass of adults, implying increasingly difficult conditions for breeding. Declining recruit production in the study area could be attributed to a mismatch between the timing of arrival and breeding in the population, and the peak of food availability in this area.     

Changes in spring arrival of Nearctic-Neotropical migrants attributed to multiscalar climate

Climate-related changes associated with the California marine ecosystem have been documented; however, there are no studies assessing changes in terrestrial vertebrate phenology on the Pacific coast of western North America. We analyze the spring phenology of 21 Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird species in central and northern CA. Using observational and banding data at multiple sites, we evaluate evidence for a change in arrival timing being linked to either nonclimatic or multiscalar climatic explanations. Using correlation analysis, of the 13 species with a significant ( P <0.10) change in arrival, the arrival timing of 10 species (77%) is associated with both temperature and a large-scale climate oscillation index (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; and/or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) at least at one location. Eight of the 13 species (62%) are advancing their migratory timing. All species for which spring arrival is associated with climate at multiple locations are exhibiting changes ( n =5) and all species lacking evidence for association between migration phenology and climate ( n =3) exhibit no change. Migrants tend to arrive earlier in association with warmer temperatures, positive NAO indices, and stronger ENSO indices. Twelve species negatively correlate ( P ≤0.05) with local or regional temperature at least at one location; five species negatively correlate with ENSO. Eleven species' arrival is correlated ( P ≤0.05) with NAO; 10 are negatively associated. After an exhaustive literature search, this is apparently the first documentation of an association between NAO and migratory phenology in western North America.     

Climatic effects on arrival and laying dates in a long-distance migrant, the Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis

Long‐distance migrants may respond to climate change in breeding, wintering or staging area by changing their phenology. The geographical variation in such responses (e.g. coastal vs. continental Europe) and the relative importance of climate at different spatial scales remain unclear. Here we analysed variation in first arrival dates (FADs) and laying dates of the Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis in a central European population, from 1973 to 2002. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlated weakly with local temperature during the laying period. Decreasing spring temperatures until 1980 were associated with a trend towards later laying. The rate of warming (0.2 °C per year) and laying advancement (0.4 days per year) since 1980 are amongst the highest values reported elsewhere. This long‐term trend in laying date was largely explained by the change in climatic factors. The negative effect of local spring temperature on laying was relatively stronger than that of NAO. The number of clutches initiated on a particular day was marginally affected by the temperature 3 days prior to laying and the response of females to daily variation in temperature did not change over years. Correspondence between the average population‐level and the individual‐level responses of laying date to climate variation suggests that the advancement of laying was due to phenotypic plasticity. Despite warmer springs and advanced laying, FADs did not change over years and were not correlated with local spring temperature. Marginal evidence suggests later departure from wintering grounds and faster migration across staging areas in warmer conditions. Advancement of arrival was probably constrained by low local temperatures in early spring just before arrival that have not changed over years. The interval between first arrival and laying has declined since 1980 (0.5 days per year), but the increasing temperature during that period may have kept the food supply approximately unchanged.     

Effect of global warming on the timing of migration and breeding of passerine birds in the 20th century

Long-term monitoring of the dates of arrival, breeding, and autumn migration in 25 passerine bird species on the Kurshskaya (Courland) Spit, the Baltic Sea, has shown that spring migration and nesting in most species wintering in Europe or Africa have shifted to earlier dates in the past two decades, whereas the dates of autumn migration in most species studied have not changed significantly. In 16 bird species, a significant negative correlation of the timing of arrival and breeding with the average spring air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in February and March was revealed. In years with early and warm springs, birds arrived at the spit and nested considerably earlier than in years with cold springs. The dates of autumn migration in most species studied largely depended on the timing of nesting but not on weather conditions in autumn. The data obtained indicate that the main factor responsible for long-term changes in the timing of arrival, nesting, and autumn migrations of passerine birds in the Baltic Region is climate fluctuations that led to considerable changes in thermal conditions in the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century. The hypothesis is proposed that recent climate warming has caused changes in the timing of not only the arrival of birds in Europe but also of their spring migrations from Africa. Further changes in the dates of passerine bird arrival and breeding in the Palearctic in subsequent years will largely depend on the dynamics of winter and spring air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the timing of autumn migrations will be determined mainly by the dates of their arrival and nesting.     

Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe

This paper analyses the dependence of the first spring arrival dates of short/medium- and long-distance migrant bird species on climate warming in eastern Europe. The timing of arrival of the selected species at the observation site correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and wind characteristics. A positive correlation of fluctuations in winter and spring air temperatures with variations in the NAO index has been established in eastern Europe. Positive winter NAO index values are related to earlier spring arrival of birds in the eastern Baltic region and vice versa—arrival is late when the NAO index is negative. The impact of climate warming on the bird’s life cycle depends on local or regional climate characteristics. We tested the hypothesis that differences in climate indices between North Africa and Europe can influence the timing of spring arrival. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in first spring arrival dates between European populations occur after individuals cross the Sahara. We assume that the endogenous programme of migration control in short/medium-distance migrants synchronises with the changing environment on their wintering grounds and along their migration routes, whereas in long-distance migrants it is rather with environmental changes in the second part of their migratory route in Europe. Our results strongly indicate that the mechanism of dynamic balance in the interaction between the endogenous regulatory programme and environmental factors determines the pattern of spring arrival, as well as migration timing.     

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes,migratory distance,and arrival distributions

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979–2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.     

Phenological changes in the Northwestern Mediterranean copepods <Emphasis Type="Italic">Centropages typicus</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Temora stylifera</Emphasis> linked to climate forcing

Planktonic copepods play a major role in the fluxes of matter and energy in the marine ecosystem, provide a biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean, and play a role in determining fish recruitment. Owing to such ecological considerations, it is essential to understand the role that climate might play in the interannual variability of these organisms and the mechanisms by which it could modify the ecosystem functioning. In this study, a causal chain of meteorological, hydrological and ecological processes linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was identified in the Ligurian Sea, Northwestern Mediterranean. The forcing by the NAO drives most of the hydro-climatic variability during winter and early spring. Subsequently, interannual and decadal changes of the dominant copepods Centropages typicus and Temora stylifera were significantly correlated to the state of the hydro-climatic signal and tightly coupled to the NAO. Direct and indirect effects whose influence promoted phenological changes in the two copepod populations drove the species’ responses to climatic forcing. Opposite responses of the analysed species were also highlighted by these results. While years characterized by the positive phase of the NAO leads to enhancement of the strength and the forward move of the C. typicus peak, they act negatively on the annual cycle of T. stylifera, the abundance of which drops twofold and the annual peak appears delayed in time. In contrast, low NAO years lead to high abundance of T. stylifera and a forward timing of its peak, and acts in turn negatively on the C. typicus annual cycle in both abundance (low) and timing (delayed). Owing to the synchronism between hydro-climatic conditions and the NAO, and the major role of these species in the pelagic ecosystem of the studied area, these results provide key elements for interpreting and forecasting decadal changes of planktonic populations in the Ligurian Sea.     

Winter climate affects subsequent breeding success of common eiders

The phenology of spring migration depends on the severity of the preceding winter and approaching spring. This severity can be quantified using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; positive values indicate mild winters. Although milder winters are correlated with earlier migration in many birds in temperate regions, few studies have addressed how climate‐induced variation in spring arrival relates to breeding success. In northern Europe, the NAO‐index correlates with ice cover and timing of ice break‐up of the Baltic Sea. Ice cover plays an important role for breeding waterfowl, since the timing of ice break‐up constrains both spring arrival and onset of breeding. We studied the effects of the winter‐NAO‐index and timing of ice break‐up on spring migration, laying date, clutch size, female body condition at hatching and fledging success of a short‐distance migrant common eider (Somateria mollissima) population from SW Finland, the Baltic Sea, 1991–2004 (migration data 1979–2004). We also examined the correlation between the NAO‐index and the proportion of juvenile eiders in the Danish hunting bag, which reflects the breeding success on a larger spatial scale. The body condition of breeding females and proportion of juveniles in the hunting bag showed significant positive correlations with the NAO, whereas arrival dates showed positive correlations and clutch size and fledging success showed negative correlations with the timing of ice break‐up. The results suggest that climate, which also affects ice conditions, has an important effect on the fledging success of eiders. Outbreaks of duckling disease epidemics may be the primary mechanism underlying this effect. Eider females are in poorer condition after severe winters and cannot allocate as much resources to breeding, which may impair the immune defense of ducklings. Global climate warming is expected to increase the future breeding success of eiders in our study population.     

Spring arrival of birds depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation

The timing of arrival of 81 migratory species in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was studied at two Finnish bird observatories (1970–99). Timing was determined for the first migrants and for the peak of migration, as well as for the early, median and late phases of migration, defined as the dates when the seasonal cumulative sum of birds reached 5%, 50% and 95%, respectively. For most species, the timing of arrival correlated negatively with the NAO in all phases of migration: the correlation was significant for 79% of species studied. Thus, most species arrived in Finland early when the NAO was positive and indicative of mild and rainy winters in northern Europe. Although all phases of migration correlated negatively with the NAO, the correlations were more negative for the early than for the late phases of migration. Since the NAO did not show a significant trend during the study period, the correlations indicate that the timing of birds followed stochastic fluctuations in the NAO. This finding suggests that most Finnish migratory birds are able to adjust the timing of spring arrival in response to climatic change without time delay.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes –- two variations on a general theme

Long‐term data on water temperature, phytoplankton biovolume, Bosmina and Daphnia abundance and the timing of the clear‐water phase were compared and analysed with respect to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in two strongly contrasting lakes in central Europe. In small, shallow, hypertrophic Müggelsee, spring water temperatures and Daphnia abundance both increased more rapidly than in large, deep, meso/oligotrophic Lake Constance. Because of this, the clear‐water phase commenced approximately three weeks earlier in Müggelsee than in Lake Constance. In Müggelsee, the phytoplankton biovolume during late winter/early spring was related to the NAO index. In Lake Constance, where phytoplankton growth was inhibited by intense downward mixing during all years studied, this was not the case. However, in both lakes, interannual variability in water temperature, in Daphnia spring population dynamics and in the timing of the clear‐water phase, were all related to the interannual variability of the NAO index. The Daphnia spring population dynamics and the timing of the clear‐water phase appear to be synchronized by the NAO despite large differences between the lakes in morphometry, trophic status and flushing and mixis regimes, and despite the great distance between the lakes (～700 km). This suggests that a great variety of lakes in central Europe may possibly have exhibited similar interannual variability during the last 20 years.     

Effects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980–2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001–2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.     

The adaptive capacity of fishery management systems for confronting climate change impacts on marine populations

Global climate change will affect the abundance, distribution, and life history timing of many exploited marine populations, but specific changes are difficult to predict. Management systems in which harvest strategies and tactics are flexible in responding to unpredictable biological changes are more likely to succeed in maintaining productive populations. We explore the adaptability of fisheries management systems in relation to oceanic warming rates by asking how two important management characteristics vary with temperature changes for >500 stocks. (1) Harvest control rules, a framework for altering fishing pressure in response to changes in the abundance of targeted species (primarily due to fishing), may provide the capacity for harvest policies to change in response to climate-driven abundance declines also. (2) Seasonal openings with flexible dates that involve in-season monitoring may allow managers to better respond to possible changes in the timing of life-history periods like spawning to prevent fishing seasons falling out of sync with species’ phenology. Harvest control rules were widely used across industrialized fisheries including in regions that experienced relatively high oceanic warming rates, but after controlling for regional factors we found no association between ocean warming and the use of harvest control rules. Flexible-date seasonal openings were rare compared to fixed-date seasonal openings, but tended to occur in areas with the greatest warming rates while fisheries without seasonal closures tended to occur in areas with the least observed temperature changes. We found no consistent evidence of recent ocean warming effects on the current biomass or exploitation rates relative to management targets of 241 assessed marine populations. Together, these results suggest that the oceanic areas expected to have the greatest climate impacts on populations do at least tend to contain fisheries that demonstrate the potential for adaptability to unpredictable climate impacts.     

North Atlantic Oscillation synchronizes food-web interactions in central European lakes

A regular and distinct feature of seasonal plankton succession in temperate lakes is the early summer period of algal suppression by herbivores, i.e. the clear water phase. Within the last 30 years the timing of this food-web interaction between algae and herbivores has advanced on average by approximately two weeks in central European lakes due to faster population growth of herbivores in warmer water. Trend and inter-annual variability in clear water timing were strongly related to the climate dynamics of the North Atlantic, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Due to its large-scale effects, the NAO synchronized plankton succession in central European lakes, causing a striking temporal coherence of a food-web interaction over several hundreds of kilometers.     

Lagged effects of North Atlantic Oscillation on spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (Homoptera) abundance and survival

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large‐scale pattern of climate variability that has been shown to have important ecological effects on a wide spectrum of taxa. Studies on terrestrial invertebrates are, however, lacking. We studied climate‐connected causes of changes in population sizes in island populations of the spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (L.) (Homoptera). Three populations living in meadows on small Baltic Sea islands were investigated during the years 1970–2005 in Tvärminne archipelago, southern Finland. A separate analysis was done on the effects of NAO and local climate variables on spittlebug survival in 1969–1978, for which survival data existed for two islands. We studied survival at two stages of the life cycle: growth rate from females to next year's instars (probably mostly related to overwintering egg survival), and survival from third instar stage to adult. The latter is connected to mortality caused by desiccation of plants and spittle masses. Higher winter NAO values were consistently associated with smaller population sizes on all three islands. Local climate variables entering the most parsimonious autoregressive models of population abundance were April and May mean temperature, May precipitation, an index of May humidity, and mean temperature of the coldest month of the previous winter. High winter NAO values had a clear negative effect on late instar survival in 1969–1978. Even May–June humidity and mean temperature of the coldest month were associated with late instar survival. The climate variables studied (including NAO) had no effect on the growth rate from females to next year's instars. NAO probably affected the populations primarily in late spring. Cold and snowy winters contribute to later snow melt and greater spring humidity in the meadows. We show that winter NAO has a considerable lagged effect on April and May temperature; even this second lagged effect contributes to differences in humidity. The lagged effect of the winter NAO to spring temperatures covers a large area in northern Europe and has been relatively stationary for 100 years at least in the Baltic area.     

Effects of food abundance, density and climate change on reproduction in the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus

The reproductive success of predators depends on abiotic environmental conditions, food abundance and population density, and food abundance, density and their interactions may respond to changes in climatic conditions. Timing of reproduction by five of the eight numerically most common prey of the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus advanced significantly since 1971, during a period of temperature increase. There was no evidence that mean laying date or any other reproductive parameter of sparrowhawks changed consistently during the study period 1977–1997. Laying date advanced and percentage of unsuccessful female sparrowhawks decreased with beech mast in the current year, an index of food abundance for avian prey. Mean laying date of sparrowhawks was advanced in warmer springs, and although mean clutch size was not larger in warm than in cold springs, mean brood size of successful pairs and breeding success increased in such springs, showing that sparrowhawks enjoyed a fitness gain when reproducing early. The timing of sparrowhawk reproduction with respect to the peak in abundance of fledgling prey increased, from a good match between mean timing of fledging by prey and maximum demand for food by the predator in 1977, to reproduction occurring later than the peak in fledging prey availability in 1997. The size of the breeding population of sparrowhawks was not predicted by mean spring temperature, the size of the breeding population the previous year or beech mast crop. The size of the post-breeding population was predicted by size of the breeding and post-breeding population the previous year and by the proportion of unsuccessful females the current year. These findings imply that sparrowhawks did not respond to change in climate, although climate changed the timing of reproduction by the main prey species.     

Impacts of climate on prey abundance account for fluctuations in a population of a northern wader at the southern edge of its range

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate change will affect animal populations is vital for adaptive management. Many studies have described changes in the timing of biological events, which can produce phenological mismatch. Direct effects on prey abundance might also be important, but have rarely been studied. We examine the likely importance of variation in prey abundance in driving the demographics of a European golden plover ( Pluvialis apricaria ) population at its southern range margin. Previous studies have correlated plover productivity with the abundance of their adult cranefly (Tipulidae) prey, and modelled the phenology of both plover breeding and cranefly emergence in relation to temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that abundance of adult craneflies is correlated with August temperature in the previous year. Correspondingly, changes in the golden plover population are negatively correlated with August temperature 2 years earlier. Predictions of annual productivity, based on temperature-mediated reductions in prey abundance, closely match observed trends. Modelled variation in annual productivity for a future scenario of increasing August temperatures predicts a significant risk of extinction of the golden plover population over the next 100 years, depending upon the magnitude of warming. Direct effects of climate warming upon cranefly populations may therefore cause northward range contractions of golden plovers, as predicted by climate envelope modelling. Craneflies are an important food source for many northern and upland birds, and our results are likely to have wide relevance to these other species. Research into the potential for habitat management to improve the resilience of cranefly populations to high temperature should be an urgent priority.     

Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus,and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate

Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years’ southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population’s future persistence.     

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling U.K. butterfly population size and phenology

1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts considerable control on U.K. weather. This study investigates the impact of the NAO on butterfly abundance and phenology using 34 years of data from the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS).2. The study uses a multi-species indicator to show that the NAO does not affect overall U.K. butterfly population size. However, the abundance of bivoltine butterfly species, which have longer flight seasons, were found to be more likely to respond positively to the NAO compared with univoltine species, which show little or a negative response.3. A positive winter NAO index is associated with warmer weather and earlier flight dates for Anthocharis cardamines (Lepidoptera: Pieridae), Melanargia galathea (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Aphantopus hyperantus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Pyronia tithonus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Lasiommata megera (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and Polyommatus icarus (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). In bivoltine species, the NAO affects the phenology of the first generation, the timing of which indirectly controls the timing of the second generation.4. The NAO influences the timing of U.K. butterfly flight seasons more strongly than it influences population size.     

Increase in protandry over time in a long‐distance migratory bird

Protandry is a widespread life‐history phenomenon describing how males precede females at the site or state of reproduction. In migratory birds, protandry has an important influence on individual fitness, the migratory syndrome, and phenological response to climate change. Despite its significance, accurate analyses on the dynamics of protandry using data sets collected at the breeding site, are lacking. Basing our study on records collected during two time periods, 1979 to 1988 and 2006 to 2016, we aim to investigate protandry dynamics over 38 years in a breeding population of willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus). Change in the timing of arrival was analyzed in males and females, and protandry (number of days between male and female arrival) was investigated both at population level and within breeding pairs. Our results show advancement in the arrival time at the breeding site in both sexes, but male arrival has advanced to a greater extent, leading to an increase in protandry both at the population level and within breeding pairs. We did not observe any change in sex ratio that could explain the protandry increase, but pronounced temperature change has occurred and been reported in the breeding area and along the migratory route. Typically, natural selection opposes too early arrival in males, but given warmer springs, this counteracting force may be relaxing, enabling an increase in protandry. We discuss whether our results suggest that climate change has induced sex‐specific effects, if these could be evolutionary and whether the timing of important life‐history stages such as arrival at the breeding site may change at different rates in males and females following environmental shifts.     

Regime shifts in the breeding of an Atlantic puffin population

Timing of breeding is a key factor determining the reproductive success in bird populations and known to be affected by climate fluctuations. We investigated the long‐term (1978–2002) relationship between climate and hatching date within a population of Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica at Røst in the Norwegian Sea. The timing of puffin breeding was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAO). We isolated two temporal regimes, one where NAO had a significant effect on hatching date (1978–1986 and 1995–2002) and one where these variables were independent (1987–1994). Hatching date could be modelled using, in addition to NAO, hatching date and food abundance in the preceding breeding season (possibly proxies of parental effort). The models remained significant for regime 1 but not for regime 2. NAO differed between the two regimes suggesting that the shifts were induced by climate change, possibly via its effect on the availability of prey in the preceding year. The novelty of our study is the identification of temporal regimes in the effects of climate within one population.