Timing of spring migration in birds: long-term trends, North Atlantic Oscillation and the significance of different migration routes

We studied long-term trends and the yearly variation in mean spring passage time in 36 passerine bird species trapped at Ottenby Bird Observatory in south-eastern Sweden. Between the years 1952–2002, data were available for 22–45 years depending on species. Most long-distance migrant species passed progressively earlier over the study period (range: 2.5 days earlier to 0.7 days later per 10 years, with an average of 0.9 days earlier per 10 years). The annual variation in timing of migration in most species, regardless of migration distance, correlated negatively with the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a large-scale climate phenomenon influencing the climate in the North Atlantic region. Birds passed earlier after mild and humid winters, corresponding to the high phase of the NAO. This corroborates the pattern found at a nearby migration site with a comparable dataset (Helgoland, 600 km WSW of Ottenby). However, short/medium-distance migrant species at Ottenby, in contrast to the situation at Helgoland, have shown no general trend of earlier passage in recent years. This was probably a consequence of the shorter study period at Ottenby, which included only the last 22–32 years (41 years at Helgoland), when the NAO showed no significant trend. At the species-specific level, the long-term trends in passage time were similar at the two sites, and there was some congruence to the extent that a given species was affected by NAO. Long-distance migrants wintering south and south-east of the breeding grounds showed some of the strongest changes in long-term trends (passing progressively earlier) at Ottenby, and for some of these species passage time varied negatively with NAO. Obviously, and contrary to previous suggestions, variations in NAO also influence birds migrating through eastern Europe, although the direct or indirect mechanisms through which this is achieved are unknown.     

A source of large axons for neurophysiology: the North Atlantic squid Illex illecebrosus.

A new axon preparation from the ommastrephid squid (Illex illecebrosusus (Lesueur)) is described. This squid is common in the Northwestern Atlantic and features a number of long, unbranched, and moderately large-diameter axons having no apparent 'twigging.' Although the diameters of these axons are somewhat smaller than those of 'giant' axons coming from some other species of squid, this axon preparation should be considered as an attractive alternative for neurobiologic research.     

North Atlantic climate variation influences survival in adult fulmars

There is increasing evidence that large scale climate variation influences reproductive parameters of seabirds, but fewer studies have investigated possible effects on adult survival. Previous work has shown that climate variation reflected by the winter North Atlantic oscillation (WNAO) influences reproductive success in northern fulmars. Here, we use a 34 year long (1962–1995) individual‐based data set to investigate inter‐annual and inter‐individual variation in adult survival in this species. Breeding success in the previous and current seasons, and both the WNAO and one‐year lagged WNAO indexes, were considered as potential sources of inter‐annual variation in survival and recapture probabilities. Sex and an index of body size were considered as potential sources of inter‐individual variation in survival and recapture probabilities. Body size effects were not significant, but males and females differed in both their survival and recapture probabilities. Probability of recapture of females was positively correlated with breeding success in both the current and previous breeding seasons, whereas male recapture probabilities were correlated only with previous breeding success. Male and female survival decreased over the study period, suggesting that there had been a degradation of environmental conditions. This hypothesis was supported by the detection of a negative correlation between survival and the WNAO, which, in turn, showed a positive increase over this period. The negative correlation between female adult survival and WNAO did not result only from the long term behaviour of the two time series, but persisted for higher frequency fluctuations. In contrast, the correlation between male survival and WNAO seemed to result only from the long term behaviour of the two time series. Despite uncertainties over causal mechanisms, these findings add to the body of evidence that large scale climate variation could dramatically affect seabird population dynamics. Furthermore our results suggest that climate variation can differentially influence individuals with distinct phenotypic characteristics.     

Recruitment variability in North Atlantic cod and match-mismatch dynamics

Background

Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain poorly understood.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used empirical observations of larval fish abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude.

Conclusions/Significance

Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival, leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for survival to recruitment.     

Biogeography of Asterias: North Atlantic climate change and speciation

Fossil evidence suggests that the seastar genus Asterias arrived in the North Atlantic during the trans-Arctic interchange around 3.5 Ma. Previous genetic and morphological studies of the two species found in the Atlantic today suggested two possible scenarios for the speciation of A. rubens and A. forbesi. Through phylogenetic and population genetic analysis of data from a portion of the cytochrome oxidase I mitochondrial gene and a fragment of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer region, I show that the formation of the Labrador Current 3.0 Ma was probably responsible for the initial vicariance of North Atlantic Asterias populations. Subsequent adaptive evolution in A. forbesi was then possible in isolation from the European species A. rubens. The contact zone between these two species formed recently, possibly due to a Holocene founding event of A. rubens in New England and the Canadian Maritimes.     

North Atlantic Oscillation and timing of spring migration in birds

Migrant birds have been trapped on the island of Helgoland (southeastern North Sea) since 1909, with methods and sampling effort remaining unchanged throughout the last four decades. In 12 short/medium-distance migrants and 12 long-distance migrants (23 passerines plus the European woodcock) sample sizes were sufficient to calculate mean spring passage (msp) times and to relate these to climate change. All but one species, passing Helgoland en route to their breeding areas (mainly in Scandinavia), show a trend towards earlier msp-time, which is significant in 7 short/medium-distance migrants and 10 long-distance migrants. The msp-times advanced by 0.05-0.28 days per year, short/medium-distance migrants not differing from long-distance migrants. In 23 out of the 24 species, earlier msp-times coincide with local warmer msp-temperatures (significantly in 11 and 7 species of the two groups, respectively). Even more striking is the relation to a large-scale phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), during the last four decades. Again, in 23 out of the 24 species, an earlier msp-time coincides with higher NAO indices (significantly in 9 and 12 species, respectively). The NAO index can also explain differences and similarities in spring migration strategies, as well as migration routes within Europe.     

North Atlantic Oscillation and fisheries management during global climate change

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries - The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most important large-scale climatic oscillation affecting the North Atlantic region. The variability introduced...     

Timing of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolt migration predicts successful passage through a reservoir

Around 30% of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts successfully survived passage through Loch Meig, a reservoir in the north of Scotland, en route to the sea. However, this survival rate was in turn dependent on the timing of migration, with the earliest migrants in the spring having the best chance of survival. This could have implication for fisheries management, since the estimation of smolt downstream survival may be influenced by which time period of the smolt run is analysed.     

Basin‐scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (‘parr’) stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (‘smolt’) is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr‐smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within‐ and among‐river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post‐smolts. Using generalized additive mixed‐effects modelling, we analysed spatio‐temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 °C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea‐surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5 days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.     

Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial–interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid‐Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross‐validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm‐temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum‐Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing.     

Polar bear stress hormone cortisol fluctuates with the North Atlantic Oscillation climate index

Polar bears are heavily dependent on sea ice for hunting sufficient prey to meet their energetic needs. When the bears are left fasting, it may cause a rise in the levels of the stress hormone cortisol. Cortisol is the major corticosteroid hormone in most mammals, including polar bears. Production and regulation of this stress hormone are vital for the body as it is part of a myriad of processes, including in relation to metabolism, growth, development, reproduction, and immune function. In the present study, we examined the correlation between East Greenland polar bear hair cortisol concentration (HCC), a matrix that reflects longer-term hormone levels, and the fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a large-scale climate phenomenon applied as a proxy for sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea along the coast of East Greenland. In doing so, a significant positive correlation (r = 0.88; p = 0.0004) was found between polar bear hair cortisol and the NAO, explaining 77 % of the variation in HCC observed between years over the period 1989–2009. This result indicates that interannual fluctuations in climate and ice cover have a substantial influence on longer-term cortisol levels in East Greenland polar bears. Further research into the implications and consequences inherent in this correlation are recommended, preferably across multiple polar bear populations.     

The role of the North Atlantic Drift in the millennial timescale glacial climate fluctuations

The Greenland ice core records show that the overall cold climate of the last glacial period was repeatedly interrupted by short, rapid warmings. The events, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, are strongly imprinted in the North Atlantic marine records suggesting that they were linked to North Atlantic circulation changes. However, the causes of the D-O events are poorly understood and they represent one of the most intriguing puzzles of the last glacial period. In order to investigate a possible mechanism we have studied variations in the distribution of benthic and planktonic foraminifera, oxygen isotopes and ice rafted debris during the last glacial period in eight cores from the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas taken at mid depth from 853 to 1760 m. The parameters indicate, in agreement with previous studies, that the circulation system during the interstadials resembled the present system. Atlantic surface water flowed north into the Nordic Seas, where most of it sank through convection and, as cold deep water, flowed back into the North Atlantic. During the stadials, a halocline was established in the Nordic Seas and in the northernmost part of the North Atlantic and the outflow from the Nordic Seas stopped. However, below the cold, light surface layer, the relatively warm water of the North Atlantic Drift continued to flow across the North Atlantic and into the Nordic Seas, here warming up the deep-water masses. We suggest that the warm water gradually made the water column unstable. The pivotal abrupt climate warmings were caused by sudden upwelling of the deep, warm water masses causing overturning of the entire water column and onset of convection.     

Climate variability and the timing of spring raptor migration in eastern North America

Many birds have advanced their spring migration and breeding phenology in response to climate change, yet some long‐distance migrants appear constrained in their adjustments. In addition, bird species with long generation times and those in higher trophic positions may also be less able to track climate‐induced shifts in food availability. Migratory birds of prey may therefore be particularly vulnerable to climate change because: 1) most are long‐lived and have relatively low reproductive capacity, 2) many feed predominately on insectivorous passerines, and 3) several undertake annual migrations totaling tens of thousands of kilometers. Using multi‐decadal datasets for 14 raptor species observed at six sites across the Great Lakes region of North America, we detected phenological shifts in spring migration consistent with decadal climatic oscillations and global climate change. While the North Atlantic and El Niño Southern Oscillations exerted heterogeneous effects on the phenology of a few species, arrival dates more generally advanced by 1.18 d per decade, a pattern consistent with the effects of global climate change. After accounting for heterogeneity across observation sites, five of the 10 most abundant species advanced the bulk of their spring migration phenology. Contrary to expectations, we found that long‐distance migrants and birds with longer generation times tended to make the greatest advancements to their spring migration. Such results may indicate that phenotypic plasticity can facilitate climatic responses among these long‐lived predators.     

Increasing variance in North Pacific climate relates to unprecedented ecosystem variability off California

Changes in variance are infrequently examined in climate change ecology. We tested the hypothesis that recent high variability in demographic attributes of salmon and seabirds off California is related to increasing variability in remote, large‐scale forcing in the North Pacific operating through changes in local food webs. Linear, indirect numerical responses between krill (primarily Thysanoessa spinifera) and juvenile rockfish abundance (catch per unit effort (CPUE)) explained >80% of the recent variability in the demography of these pelagic predators. We found no relationships between krill and regional upwelling, though a strong connection to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index was established. Variance in NPGO and related central Pacific warming index increased after 1985, whereas variance in the canonical ENSO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation did not change. Anthropogenic global warming or natural climate variability may explain recent intensification of the NPGO and its increasing ecological significance. Assessing non‐stationarity in atmospheric‐environmental interactions and placing greater emphasis on documenting changes in variance of bio‐physical systems will enable insight into complex climate‐marine ecosystem dynamics.     

Temporal variability in the night-time distribution of epipelagic siphonophores in the North Atlantic Ocean at Bermuda

The temporal variability of siphonophores was compared on night-to-night,month-to-month and year-to-year scales in open-net collectionsmade at or near the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) site.These collections were made as oblique tows to 100 m on (i)one summer night in each of 1986, 1989 and 1991, (ii) one nightper month on 13 cruises between April 1991 and August 1992,and (iii) three consecutive summer nights of 1992. The meanwet displacement volume (WDV) of sipho nophores in the thesecollections was 1.4 ± 0.6 ml per 100 m³ or 20 ±10% of the total catch biovolume. The most common species belongedto the Calycophorae families Diphyidae and Abylidae: the combinednumerical abundance of Chelophyes appendiculala, Eudoxoidesmitra, Lensia subtilis. Eudox-oides spiralis, Bassia bassensisand Abytopsis eschscholtzi averaged 300–400 per 100 m³.Combined numbers of these common species varied little whensampled hour by hour at the same location during consecutivesummer nights or at different night-time sampling locations10¹–10² km apart when these were sampled within 3–5h. In contrast, most of these six species exhibited 2- to 3-folddifferences in night-time abundance between summers of differentyears and between seasons. Three seasonal groups were detected,with a winter group being the most distinct from the others.Changes in the abundance of several species were correlatedwith seasonal changes in the depth of the mixed layer.