The impact of global climate change on tropical forest biodiversity in Amazonia

Aim To model long‐term trends in plant species distributions in response to predicted changes in global climate. Location Amazonia. Methods The impacts of expected global climate change on the potential and realized distributions of a representative sample of 69 individual Angiosperm species in Amazonia were simulated from 1990 to 2095. The climate trend followed the HADCM2GSa1 scenario, which assumes an annual 1% increase of atmospheric CO₂ content with effects mitigated by sulphate forcing. Potential distributions of species in one‐degree grid cells were modelled using a suitability index and rectilinear envelope based on bioclimate variables. Realized distributions were additionally limited by spatial contiguity with, and proximity to, known record sites. A size‐structured population model was simulated for each cell in the realized distributions to allow for lags in response to climate change, but dispersal was not included. Results In the resulting simulations, 43% of all species became non‐viable by 2095 because their potential distributions had changed drastically, but there was little change in the realized distributions of most species, owing to delays in population responses. Widely distributed species with high tolerance to environmental variation exhibited the least response to climate change, and species with narrow ranges and short generation times the greatest. Climate changed most in north‐east Amazonia while the best remaining conditions for lowland moist forest species were in western Amazonia. Main conclusions To maintain the greatest resilience of Amazonian biodiversity to climate change as modelled by HADCM2GSa1, highest priority should be given to strengthening and extending protected areas in western Amazonia that encompass lowland and montane forests.     

Conservation of phylogeographic lineages under climate change

Aim We address the unexplored question of whether the lack of information on intra‐specific diversity inherent in species‐level niche modelling might bias evaluation of the conservation requirements of species and phylogeographic lineages under changing climates. We test for directional biases that might arise due to these methodological differences in ways of assessing risks from climate change. Location The African continent. Methods We identified from peer‐reviewed studies that used both nuclear and plastid markers the distribution of deep phylogeographic divisions within nine species of African mammals and their phylogeographic lineages. We fitted ecological niche models to describe currently suitable, occupied climates and to project the shift of suitable climate to two future time slices. We applied gap analysis to reveal potential changes in the protection of phylogeographic diversity owing to climatic shifts. Results We found that, within species, most phylogeographic lineages differ in the climates they experience and have substantial geographic separation. Models that do not distinguish these subspecific units often fail to identify potential risks of climate change to lineages. Modelled potential effects of climate change on the geographic extent of suitable climate vary in both direction and magnitude. Predictions of the persistence of suitable climate in current protected areas for the resident lineages differ on average by factor of 2 between species and lineage models. Main conclusions Our study develops an original synthetic approach by combining niche modelling, projected climate change, phylogeographic information and gap analysis. We clearly identify the potential benefits of using the new approach to evaluate risks to the conservation of intra‐specific genetic diversity that are posed by climate change. Our results suggest that prudent conservation strategies need to incorporate potential differences in climate tolerance among lineages when planning conservation measures for species confronted with environmental change.     

建立生物多样性保护信息系统的意义和途径

生物多样性保护信息系统可提供必要的数据和信息,帮助决策者对生物多样性的保护与持续利用作出科学的规划,因而受到国内外的普遍关注。本文就该信息系统的内容、功能以及建立途径等方面作一简略介绍。     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

A potential tool to mitigate the impacts of climate change to the caribbean leatherback sea turtle

It is now well understood that climate change has the potential to dramatically affect biodiversity, with effects on spatio‐temporal distribution patterns, trophic relationships and survivorship. In the marine turtles, sex is determined by incubation temperature, such that warming temperatures could lead to a higher production of female hatchlings. By measuring nest temperature, and using a model to relate the incubation temperature to sex ratio, we estimate that Caribbean Colombian leatherback sea turtles currently produce approximately 92% female hatchlings. We modelled the relationship between incubation, sand and air temperature, and under all future climate change scenarios (0.4–6.0 °C warming over the next 100 years), complete feminization could occur, as soon as the next decade. However, male producing refugia exist in the periphery of smaller nests (0.7 °C cooler at the bottom than at the centre), within beaches (0.3 °C cooler in the vegetation line and inter‐tidal zone) and between beaches (0.4 °C higher on dark beaches), and these natural refugia could be assigned preferential conservation status. However, there exists a need to develop strategies that may ameliorate deleterious effects of climate‐induced temperature changes in the future. We experimentally shaded clutches using screening material, and found that it was effective in reducing nest temperature, producing a higher proportion of male hatchlings, without compromising the fitness or hatching success. Artificial shade in hatcheries is a very useful and simple tool in years or periods of high environmental temperatures. Nevertheless, this is only an emergency response to the severe impacts that will eventually have to be reversed if we are to guarantee the stability of the populations.     

Integrating carbon stocks and landscape connectivity for nature-based climate solutions

Actions to protect against biodiversity loss and climate change will require a framework that addresses synergies between these interrelated issues. In this study, we present methods for identifying areas important for the implementation of nature-based climate solutions and biodiversity conservation by intersecting high-resolution spatial data for carbon storage and landscape connectivity. We explored the spatial congruence of carbon and connectivity in Ontario, Canada and examined effectiveness of current protected areas coverage. We found a weak positive relationship between carbon stocks and landscape connectivity; however, our maps revealed large hotspots, with high values of both indices, throughout the boreal forest and northern peatlands and smaller, isolated hotspots, in the settled landscapes of the south. Location of hotspots varied depending on whether we considered forest or soil carbon. Further, our results show that current protected and conserved areas in Ontario only cover 13% of landscapes with the highest values for both carbon storage and connectivity. Protection or restoration of areas that maximize the co-benefits of carbon storage and connectivity would make significant contributions toward ambitious national targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and conserve biodiversity.     

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real‐world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.     

Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems

Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more‐diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long‐term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning.     

Coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue mechanism to mitigate global climate change impacts

Climate change and anthropogenic pressures inflict a wide range of profound damages on coral reef ecosystems, reshaping coral reef communities due to their physiological and ecological intolerance to the newly developing environmental conditions. Here, I present coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue tool for accelerating adaptive responses to global climate change impacts. The “evolutionary rescue” power is contingent on the premise that coral chimerism counters the erosion of genetic and phenotypic diversity. Further benefits are gained when flexible chimeric entities alter their somatic constituents following changes in environmental conditions, synergistically presenting the best‐fitting combination of their genetic components to endure in a capricious environment, exhibiting always their environmentally matched physiological characteristics. Chimerism should be considered as an integral part of the ecological engineering toolbox being developed for active reef restoration.     

From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.     

Projected impacts of climate change on snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province,China

Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate‐related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km² under current conditions and 228,997 km² under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km² and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.     

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species‐climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040–2069, 2070–2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species‐specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species‐specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site‐level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses.     

跨界自然保护区——实现生物多样性保护的新手段

随着区域合作和大尺度景观保护的需求不断增加,跨界资源管理越来越受到人们的关注,作为跨界资源管理的一种典型方式,跨界自然保护区正成为保护区研究中的热点问题。在对跨界自然保护区概念、类型及历史发展进行阐述的基础上,分析了建立跨界自然保护区的效益和代价及影响跨界自然保护区成败的因素,指出建立跨界自然保护区可能是在更大尺度上实现生态系统管理和生物多样性保护的有效途径。同时,分析了我国保护区的跨界现状和存在的问题,并对我国不同行政区间展开跨界合作的必要性进行了探讨。最后对跨界保护的未来研究提出展望。     

黄海生态区保护空缺分析

黄海生态区是世界自然基金会筛选出来的全球最优先保护的43个海洋生态区之一。目前, 我国已在黄海生态区内建立多处海洋保护地, 有效保护了其海洋生态系统及生物多样性。然而我国海洋保护地管理和建设中仍有许多问题, 存在较多保护空缺区域。因此, 完善黄海生态区内的海洋保护地建设是非常关键的。本文利用空缺分析法研究了黄海生态区内的重要滨海湿地、关键物种以及重点海域, 以识别保护空缺理论图斑, 从而提出新建保护地的提议。根据空缺分析结果, 黄海生态区内的主要保护空缺为辽河口湿地、曹妃甸海草床、天津塘沽和黄骅湿地、胶东半岛湿地、舟山群岛等。建议优化整合黄河口海洋保护地, 扩大或新建斑海豹(Phoca largha)、勺嘴鹬(Eurynorhynchus pygmeus)保护地, 并加强对东亚江豚(Neophocaena asiaeorientalis sunameri)以及小须鲸(Balaenoptera acutorostrata)的调查研究, 以形成更有效的海洋保护地网络。     

中国生物多样性就地保护的研究与实践

中国是世界上生物多样性最丰富的地区之一,但面临着较大的生态衰退风险。中国生物多样性受到的威胁来自包括人口众多、经济发展模式单一落后、工业化进程加快、气候变化和外来物种入侵等多种因素。生物多样性的就地保护对于维护国家生态安全具有重要意义,同时也是中国可持续发展的需要。本文就中国生物多样性就地保护的研究成果和保护成就进行了回顾,提出了未来应该着重加强的研究领域。中国生物多样性的就地保护研究与实践主要集中在生物多样性资源调查、濒危物种管理和自然保护区建设等方面。中国政府在生物多样性就地保护领域开展了大量卓有成效的工作,发布实施了一系列的保护行动规划,不断提高了生物多样性的保护水平。中国的生物多样性就地保护经过了由数量发展到质量发展的阶段后,未来的研究重点应该集中在生物多样性形成与维持机制、生物多样性受胁原因与响应机制、生物多样性长期监测与评估、自然保护区有效管理和自然保护区立法等方面。     

Incorporating climate change adaptation into national conservation assessments

The Convention on Biological Diversity requires that member nations establish protected area networks that are representative of the country's biodiversity. The identification of priority sites to achieve outstanding representation targets is typically accomplished through formal conservation assessments. However, representation in conservation assessments or gap analyses has largely been interpreted based on a static view of biodiversity. In a rapidly changing climate, the speed of changes in biodiversity distribution and abundance is causing us to rethink the viability of this approach. Here we describe three explicit strategies for climate change adaptation as part of national conservation assessments: conserving the geophysical stage, identifying and protecting climate refugia, and promoting cross‐environment connectivity. We demonstrate how these three approaches were integrated into a national terrestrial conservation assessment for Papua New Guinea, one of the most biodiverse countries on earth. Protected areas identified based on representing geophysical diversity were able to capture over 90% of the diversity in vegetation communities, suggesting they could help protect representative biodiversity regardless of changes in the distribution of species and communities. By including climate change refugia as part of the national conservation assessment, it was possible to substantially reduce the amount of environmental change expected to be experienced within protected areas, without increasing the overall cost of the protected area network. Explicitly considering environmental heterogeneity between adjacent areas resulted in protected area networks with over 40% more internal environmental connectivity. These three climate change adaptation strategies represent defensible ways to guide national conservation priority given the uncertainty that currently exists in our ability to predict climate changes and their impacts. Importantly, they are also consistent with data and expertise typically available during national conservation assessments, including in developing nations. This means that in the vast majority of countries, these strategies could be implemented immediately.     

海洋保护区管理与保护成效评估的方法与进展

全球物种多样性的持续下降使得生物多样性保护面临巨大挑战, 海洋生物多样性的保护任务尤其艰巨。海洋保护区是保护生物多样性的有效方式之一, 如何对其成效进行评估是当前研究热点。然而, 目前针对海洋保护区的评估体系较少, 而且评估指标多侧重于管理成效。近年来随着全球生物多样性监测网络和数据库的建立, 以及多种新技术(如遥感、声呐系统、卫星追踪、基因组学等)在海洋生物多样性监测中的应用, 使得从生态系统到基因水平的多层次连续监测成为可能。基于此, 建议未来我国海洋保护区成效评估应在充分利用新技术方法的基础上, 加强长期科学监测, 建立并完善生物多样性监测数据库和信息共享机制, 发展跨学科的综合保护成效评估体系, 加强基于生物多样性监测的保护成效评估。     

Characteristics of climate change refugia for Australian biodiversity

Identifying refugia is a critical component of effective conservation of biodiversity under anthropogenic climate change. However, despite a surge in conceptual and practical interest, identifying refugia remains a significant challenge across diverse continental landscapes. We provide an overview of the key properties of refugia that promote species' persistence under climate change, including their capacity to (i) buffer species from climate change; (ii) sustain long‐term population viability and evolutionary processes; (iii) minimize the potential for deleterious species interactions, provided that the refugia are (iv) available and accessible to species under threat. Further, we classify refugia in terms of the environmental and biotic stressors that they provide protection from (i.e. thermal, hydric, cyclonic, pyric and biotic refugia), but ideally refugia should provide protection from a multitude of stressors. Our systematic characterization of refugia facilitates the identification of refugia in the Australian landscape. Challenges remain, however, specifically with respect to how to assess the quality of refugia at the level of individual species and whole species assemblages. It is essential that these challenges are overcome before refugia can live up to their acclaim as useful targets for conservation and management in the context of climate change.