Modelling developmental instability in relation to individual fitness: a fully Bayesian latent variable model approach

Since the influential paper by Palmer and Strobeck in 1986, the statistical analysis of fluctuating asymmetry and developmental stability has received much attention. Most studies deal with one of the following four difficulties: (i) correcting for bias in asymmetry estimates due to measurement error; (ii) quantifying sampling error in the estimation of individual developmental stability using individual asymmetry; (iii) the detection of directional asymmetry and antisymmetry; and (iv) combining data from several traits. Yet, few studies have focused on statistical properties of estimating a relationship between individual developmental stability and other factors (e.g. fitness). In this paper I introduce a fully Bayesian model in which the unobservable individual developmental stability is treated as a latent variable. The latter is then related to individual fitness. I show by means of the analysis of simulated data that this approach has several advantages over traditional techniques. First, the method provides unbiased (but slightly less accurate) estimates of slopes between developmental stability and fitness taking all sources of error into account. Secondly, it allows proper investigation of non‐linear associations. Finally, the model allows unbiased estimation of unobserved fitness of individuals that have been measured on left and right side.     

Fluctuating asymmetry and developmental instability in evolutionary biology: past, present and future

The role of developmental instability (DI), as measured by fluctuating asymmetry (FA), in evolutionary biology has been the focus of a wealth of research for more than half a century. In spite of this long period and many published papers, our current state of knowledge reviewed here only allows us to conclude that patterns are heterogeneous and that very little is known about the underlying causes of this heterogeneity. In addition, the statistical properties of FA as a measure of DI are only poorly grasped because of a general lack of understanding of the underlying mechanisms that drive DI. If we want to avoid that this area of research becomes abandoned, more efforts should be made to understand the observed heterogeneity, and attempts should be made to develop a unifying statistical protocol. More specifically, and perhaps most importantly, it is argued here that more attention should be paid to the usefulness of FA as a measure of DI since many factors might blur this relationship. Furthermore, the genetic architecture, associations with fitness and the importance of compensatory growth should be investigated under a variety of stress situations. In addition, more focus should be directed to the underlying mechanisms of DI as well as how these processes map to the observable phenotype. These insights could yield more efficient statistical models and a unified approach to the analysis of patterns in FA and DI. The study of both DI and canalization is indispensable to obtain better insights in their possible common origin, especially because both have been suggested to play a role in both micro- and macro-evolutionary processes.     

Fluctuating Asymmetry as Risk Marker for Stress and Structural Defects in a Toxicologic Experiment

Fluctuating asymmetry (the directionally random asymmetry of bilateral structures, FA) is commonly used as a measure of developmental instability, and may increase with stress. As several studies reported a relation between FA and developmental abnormalities, we investigate whether FA could be an additional perhaps more sensitive marker of developmental toxicity. The aim of this work is analyzing patterns of FA in multiple traits in a large dataset of rabbit fetuses, which were prenatally exposed to a toxic compound and sacrificed just before natural delivery. Gravid females were exposed to three doses of this compound, inducing abnormalities in the fetuses at the high dose only. The average FA, however, was already higher than control in rabbit fetuses of the low‐dose group but did not further increase with higher concentrations. Moreover, the increase in FA differed between traits, with the hindlimbs showing the strongest response. In addition, we did not find any association between FA and the presence of fetal abnormalities at the individual level. Although these results suggest that FA may act as “an early warning system,” we did not find a dose–response relationship with increasing stress and effects were trait‐specific. Further testing is needed before FA may be considered as a sensitive marker in developmental toxicity studies.     

Fluctuating asymmetry in the otoliths of larval fish as an indicator of condition: conceptual and methodological aspects

Developmental instability, measured as fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in bilateral traits, has been used widely as an indicator of genetic or environmental stress in a variety of plant and animal taxa. FA arises as small deviations from perfect bilateral symmetry which reflect 'mistakes' in developmental processes resulting from the inability of the genotype to buffer itself effectively against environmental perturbations. Recently, it has been proposed that FA in the otoliths can be used as an indicator of condition in larval fish. This paper reviews the conceptual and methodological aspects of FA relevant to its potential use as a measure of well-being. Its simplicity makes FA an attractive tool to measure developmental precision and condition. However, there are several pitfalls, such as measuring error or potentially size dependence. Subtle asymmetries, i.e. between sides variation of a trait at the individual level, may not always be indicative of condition and should be interpreted with caution. The past-growth record of otoliths may provide a powerful means of studying the development of asymmetries at the level of the individual.     

Strong nonlinear selection against fluctuating asymmetry in wild populations of a marine fish

Theoretical links between fluctuating asymmetry (FA) and fitness have led many to use FA as a proxy for average fitness. However, studies examining whether asymmetry actually correlates with individual fitness in wild populations are relatively rare and often use simple measures of association (e.g., correlation coefficients). Consequently, the pattern of selection on asymmetry in the wild is seldom clear. We examined selection on FA of pectoral fin morphology in two wild populations of a marine fish (the kelp perch; Brachyistius frenatus). As expected, variance in signed FA in each initial sample was significantly greater than that found in the surviving population, indicating selection against FA. Our estimate of the fitness surface confirmed perfect symmetry as the phenotypic optimum and indicated strong, nonlinear selection against asymmetry. No difference in the form of selection was detected between populations. However, the level of FA in the initial samples varied among populations, leading to an overall difference in the level of selective mortality. Our results suggest that selection on asymmetry in wild populations may be strongly nonlinear, and indicate that the demographic costs of asymmetry may play a substantial role in the dynamics of populations.     

Fluctuating asymmetry inMacaca fascicularis: A study of the etiology of developmental noise

Fluctuating asymmetry was determined for six cranial measurements in an age-diverse sample of 138 individuals ofMacaca fascicularis. These data were used to choose among four hypotheses concerning the etiology of developmental noise. The hypotheses considered are (1) that developmental noise represents asymmetry in the causal history of a developing organism's interaction with the environment, (2) that it represents stochasticity in the mechanics of growth and induction, (3) that it reflects variation in the initial conditions of a developmental process, and (4) that it represents the random accumulation of noise at a level below that of morphogenetic mechanism. These hypotheses were tested against predictions concerning the intraspecific patterning of fluctuating asymmetry against age and size and the covariation of asymmetry values. Only the predictions of the fourth hypothesis were confirmed by results of this study. These results provide evidence for the view that developmental noise, as reflected by fluctuating asymmetry, is an intrinsic property of developmental systems, and not merely produced by the complexity of the organism's interaction with the environment.     

Developmental instability and inbreeding in natural bird populations exposed to different levels of habitat disturbance

As habitat disturbance and inbreeding increasingly stress natural populations, ecologists are in urgent need of simple estimators to measure their impact. It has been argued that developmental instability (DI) could be such a measure. Observed associations between DI and environmental or genetic stress, however, are largely inconsistent. We here test whether an interaction between habitat disturbance and inbreeding could, at least partly, explain these discordant patterns. We therefore studied individual estimates of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) and of inbreeding in three populations of the critically endangered Taita thrush that are differentially exposed to habitat disturbance following severe forest fragmentation. As predicted, the relationship between DI and inbreeding was pronounced under high levels of disturbance, but weak or nonexistent under less disturbed conditions. Examining this relationship with mean d², an allelic distance estimator assumed to reflect ancestral inbreeding, did not reveal any significant trend, hence suggesting that inbreeding effects in the Taita thrush are fairly recent.     

The role of behavioural ecology of damselflies in the use of fluctuating asymmetry as a bioindicator of water pollution

1. Fluctuating asymmetry has been used widely to investigate questions concerned with evolution and behaviour, and to study the effects of environmental pollution. Damselflies have been used to answer questions in both fields, but no attempt has been made to combine the knowledge from these areas to investigate whether and how evolutionary ecology and behaviour interfere with the use of fluctuating asymmetry as a bioindicator of water pollution. 2. Four hypotheses were formulated to investigate possible interferences: (1) Paired males should be less asymmetrical than unpaired males. (2) Males caught at breeding sites should be less asymmetrical than females caught at breeding sites. (3) Damselflies caught earlier in the season should be less asymmetrical than those caught later in the year. (4) Damselflies caught at control sites should be less asymmetrical than those caught at sites within areas of high pesticide usage. 3. No significant difference in asymmetry levels was found between paired and unpaired males. 4. Males were significantly less asymmetrical than females. 5. Damselflies caught earlier in the year were less asymmetrical than those caught later. 6. The data used to test the hypothesis that fluctuating asymmetry in the wings of mature damselflies reflects the level of pesticides used in the surrounding environment were equivocal. 7. The findings suggest that evolutionary ecology and behaviour interfere with the suitability of fluctuating asymmetry in mature damselflies as a biomonitoring tool and it is concluded that fluctuating asymmetry in emerging adults should be much more appropriate as a bioindicator.     

Mild stress during development affects the phenotype of great tit Parus major nestlings: a challenge experiment

Conditions experienced during early development may affect both adult phenotype and performance later during life. Phenotypic traits may hence be used to indicate past growing conditions and predict future survival probabilities. Relationships between phenotypic markers and future survival are, however, highly heterogeneous, possibly because poor‐ and high‐quality individuals cannot be morphologically discriminated when developing under good environmental conditions. Sub‐optimal breeding conditions, in contrast, may unmask poor‐quality individuals in a measurable way at the morphological level. We thus predict stronger associations between phenotype and performance under stress. In this field study, we test this hypothesis, experimentally challenging the homeostasis of great tit (Parus major) nestlings by short‐term deprivation of parental care, which had no immediate effect on nestling fitness. The experiment was replicated during two subsequent breeding seasons with contrasting ambient weather conditions. Experimental (short‐term) stress affected tarsus growth but not residual mass at fledging, whereas ambient (continuous) stress affected residual mass but not tarsus growth. Short‐term stress effects on tarsus length and tarsus fluctuating asymmetry were only apparent when ambient conditions were unfavourable. Residual mass and hatching date, but none of the other phenotypic traits, predicted local survival, whereby the strength of the relationship did not vary between both years. Because effects of stress on developmental homeostasis are likely to be trait‐specific and condition‐dependent, studies on the use of phenotypic markers for individual fitness should integrate multiple traits comprising different levels of developmental complexity. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 100 , 103–110.     

High variation in developmental instability under non-normal developmental error: a Bayesian perspective

The developmental mechanisms behind developmental instability (DI) are only poorly understood. Nevertheless, fluctuating asymmetry (FA) is often used a surrogate for DI. Based on statistical arguments it is often assumed that individual levels of FA are only weakly associated with the underlying DI. Patterns in FA therefore need to be interpreted with caution, and should ideally be transformed into patterns in DI. In order to be able to achieve that, assumptions about the distribution of developmental errors must be made. Current models assume that errors during development are additive and independent such that they yield a normal distribution. The observation that the distribution of FA is often leptokurtic has been interpreted as evidence for between-individual variation in DI. This approach has led to unrealistically high estimates of between-individual variation in DI, and potentially incorrect interpretations of patterns in FA, especially at the individual level. Recently, it has been suggested that the high estimates of variation in DI may be biased upward because either developmental errors are log-normal or gamma distributed and/or low measurement resolution of FA. A proper estimation of the amount (and shape) of heterogeneity in DI is crucial for the interpretation of patterns in FA and their transformation into patterns in DI. Yet, incorrect model assumptions may render misleading inferences. We therefore develop a statistical model to evaluate the sensitivity of results under the normal error model against the two alternative distributions as well as to investigate the importance of low measurement resolution. An analysis of simulated and empirical data sets indicated that bias due to misspecification of the developmental error distribution can be substantial, yet, did not appear to reduce estimates of variation in DI in empirical data sets to a large extent. Effects of low measurement resolution were neglectable. The importance of these results are discussed in the context of the interpretation of patterns in FA.     

Fluctuating and directional asymmetry in natural bird populations exposed to different levels of habitat disturbance, as revealed by mixture analysis

While bilateral trait asymmetry is widely recognized to estimate developmental instability, much controversy exists over which types of asymmetry (fluctuating, directional, and/or antisymmetry) to use. Recently it has been hypothesized that the three types are strongly interrelated, and that increased developmental instability may be reflected in a transition from fluctuating to directional asymmetry and/or antisymmetry. Alternatively, habitat disturbance might change the genetic expression of directional asymmetry. We present herein the first empirical evidence for stress-mediated shifts in types of asymmetry in natural populations, by using mixture analysis to model tarsus asymmetry in bird populations exposed to different levels of habitat disturbance. Observed asymmetry patterns almost exclusively consisted of true fluctuating asymmetry in the least disturbed populations, but became progressively mixed with directional asymmetry under increasing disturbance. Failing to unravel these mixtures of different forms of asymmetry may have critical implications for the analysis and interpretation of asymmetry data.     

Fluctuating asymmetry in a secondary sexual trait: no associations with individual fitness, environmental stress or inbreeding, and no heritability

It has been suggested that fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in secondary sexual traits may be a useful indicator of either individual quality or environmental stress. We tested this concept using a series of analyses of FA in male antler size in a wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) population, using four measures of size repeated across successive years on the same individuals. We found no consistent evidence of correlations between traits in levels of FA, nor of any associations between known environmental or developmental conditions. None of the four measures of FA showed a significant heritability (average h2 = 0.041), nor was there any evidence of inbreeding depression. For three of the four traits, fluctuating asymmetry did not predict either annual or lifetime breeding success. However there were significant associations between breeding success and FA in antler length. Given the series of null results in our other tests, it seems likely that this was a direct mechanistic effect rather than because measures of FA were indicative of individual quality or condition.     

Fluctuating asymmetry of sexual and nonsexual traits in stalk‐eyed flies: a poor indicator of developmental stress and genetic quality

It has been proposed that females use fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in sexual ornaments to assess male quality. FA of sexual traits is predicted to show greater sensitivity to stress than FA of nonsexual traits, and to be heritable. We used a half‐sib mating design and manipulation of larval food environment to test these predictions on stalk‐eyed flies, Cyrtodiopsis dalmanni, in which females prefer males with larger eyespans. We measured size and FA of eyestalks and of two nonsexually selected characters, wing length and width. We found no evidence of an increase in FA under larval food stress in any of the individual traits, although trait size decreased under stress. We combined FA across traits into a single composite index, and found that males reared in the most benign larval environment had significantly higher composite FA than males reared on other media. There was no such effect in females. Heritability of FA was not significantly different from zero in any of the traits, in any of the environments, although trait sizes showed high heritability. We conclude that FA in sexual and nonsexual traits is a poor indicator of developmental stress and genetic quality.     

Fluctuating asymmetry in antlers of fallow deer (Dama dama): the relative roles of environmental stress and sexual selection

Antler lengths were recorded of a total of 250 male fallow deer (Dama dama (L)). Animals sampled were from marked populations where the majority of individuals were of known age. Asymmetry in antler length was normally distributed with a mean not significantly different from zero, confirming that differences in length between the antler pair constitute a true fluctuating asymmetry (FA). We found no clear relationship between the degree of asymmetry in antler length of an individual male and either population density or actual body mass. We did, however, detect a significant relationship between asymmetry and deviation from maximum cohort bodyweight. If deviation from maximum weight within a cohort may be considered some index of competitive success or increasing environmental stress, this may suggest that asymmetry in antler length relates in some way to developmental stress suffered by the individual concerned. The degree of asymmetry recorded in antler length also showed a significant decline with animal age, with antlers of animals of 2 years or older showing significantly greater symmetry. This is consistent with a hypothesis that despite continued competition for resources, there is a changing balance of selection pressure as animals reach maturity, with increased pressure from sexual selection requiring males to produce significantly more symmetrical ornaments.     

Fluctuating asymmetry and age in children: evolutionary implications for the control of developmental stability

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) is small deviations from perfect symmetry which reflect one component of fitness, i.e. developmental stability. There is accumulating evidence that low FA is important in inter- and intra-sexual selection in humans. However, there is little information on the pattern of FA in children. Data from cross-sectional studies of 680 participants from 2–18 years suggests that (1) both absolute and relative FA reduces with age until 10 years (2) there is an increase in FA in adolescents (11–15 years) with a peak at 13 years for males and 14 years for females (3) after 15 years there is reduction in FA which is maintained until 18 years. The importance of growth rate, metabolic maintenance and sex steroids on developmental stability is discussed.     

Patterns of asymmetry in the twining vine Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae): ontogenetic and hierarchical perspectives

We studied patterns of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in leaves of four populations of the neotropical vine Dalechampia scandens to obtain insight into the origin of leaf FA and the level at which it is controlled. We analysed correlations in signed and unsigned asymmetry at different organizational levels. We also analysed the ontogeny of FA during leaf expansion to test whether asymmetry is regulated during cell expansion, and whether fast-expanding leaves are more or less asymmetrical. Signed asymmetry was negatively correlated between successive leaves, that is, when the right side of a leaf was larger than the left side, the next leaf on the shoot tended to show the opposite pattern. The magnitude of FA, however, was very weakly correlated among successive leaves or among leaves measured on different shoots. The direction of asymmetry did not change during leaf expansion, but the relative asymmetry, that is, asymmetry corrected for difference in trait size, decreased during expansion. We found a weak negative relationship between leaf expansion rate and relative asymmetry on the fully expanded leaves. These results suggest that leaf asymmetry in Dalechampia originates from perturbations in cell proliferation in the stem, creating asymmetries in opposite directions in successive leaves. These asymmetries persist during leaf expansion, but tend to be reduced by unknown mechanisms.     

Variation patterns of bilateral characters: variation among characters and among populations in the White Sea herring, Clupea pallasi marisalbi (Berg) (Clupeidae, Teleosti)

Phenotypic variation in two populations of the White Sea herring Clupea pallasi marisalbi (Berg) (spring spawners and summer spawners), based on 21 meristic and 21 morphometric bilateral characters, has been studied. Total phenotypic variance was partitioned into a within-individual or stochastic component (fluctuating asymmetry) and an among-individual or factorial component, reflecting heterogeneity among individuals and resulting from the diversity of genotypes and environments. Both standardized stochastic and factorial components show clear negative correlations with means across characters. Negative correlation of the factorial components with means is in contradiction to the commonly accepted explanation of negative means-standardized variances association. Slopes of regression of standardized stochastic variances on means in meristic characters was significantly higher in summer spawners than in spring spawners, and results in discordance of stochastic variance across characters: it is higher in spring spawners for low and average variability characters and does not differ for both populations for high variability characters. The populations do not show notable differences in variation of morphometric characters. Consideration of other available data on these populations, such as spawning behaviour and salinity resistance of larvae, suggests that the lower slope of regression of stochastic variances on means is associated with the reduced viability of spring spawners     

Heterozygosity and asymmetry: Ectodysplasin as a form of genetic stress in marine threespine stickleback

Genome‐wide heterozygosity has long been hypothesized to play a role in buffering organisms against developmental perturbations, potentially resulting in increased symmetry. If true, this could in part explain the maintenance of standing genetic variation in wild populations. Marine threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were sampled across their eastern Pacific coastal distribution from Alaska to California and variations in asymmetry for both structural and nonstructural armor traits (lateral plates) were assessed. Structural plates consistently showed less asymmetry than nonstructural plates, but standardized measures of heterozygosity were not correlated with the extent of asymmetry expressed by a fish. Fish that were heterozygous for the major‐effect gene controlling lateral plate variation (Ectodysplasin) had higher occurrences of asymmetry, even when the individuals were phenotypically fully plated. Collectively, this suggests that heterozygosity at a major‐effect locus can have a greater impact on asymmetry than heterozygosity sampled across the genome.