Analyzing the Relationship between Objective–Subjective Health Status and Public Perception of Climate Change as a Human Health Risk in Coastal Tanzania

Climate change is considered as the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the most-at-risk region of the world, is estimated to have a disproportionately large share of the burden of climate change–induced environmental and human health risks. To develop effective adaptations to protect public health, it is essential to consider how individuals perceive and understand the risks, and how they might be willing to change their behaviors in response to them. Using a cross-sectional survey of 1253 individuals in coastal Tanzania we analyzed the relationship between subjective health status (self-reported health) and objective health status on the one hand and perceived health risks of climate change. Generally, higher subjective health status was associated with lower scores on perceived health risks of climate change. Concerning objective health status, the results were varied. Individuals who affirmed that they had been previously diagnosed with hepatitis, skin conditions, or tuberculosis had lower scores on perceived health risks of climate change, unlike their counterparts who affirmed that they had been previously diagnosed with malaria in the past 12 months or had been diagnosed with HIV/AIDS. These relationships persist even when biosocial and sociocultural attributes are taken into consideration. The results underscore the complex ways in which objective and subjective health interact with both biosocial and sociocultural factors to shape perceived health risks of climate change.     

Climate change and coevolution in the cuckoo–reed warbler system

The evolution of traits in hosts may be influenced by their parasites and vice versa and a coevolutionary arms race often develops between the two. As part of such an arms race, the common cuckoo mimics the eggs of its hosts to avoid egg rejection. Traits related to this arms race may also be influenced by climatic conditions, such as temperature, affecting, for example, food availability and, thus, female condition and egg size (therefore may reflect Bergmann’s rule or the resource rule). The potential interaction between coevolution and climate has rarely been studied. We investigated whether egg and body size of cuckoos and reed warblers from Britain and Denmark had undergone change between 1868 and 1956, and whether such changes were correlated with climatic factors. Cuckoo egg size decreased during the studied period while warbler egg size remained stable. Hence, cuckoo and warbler eggs have become more similar in size over time. Cuckoo egg volume decreased with increasing annual precipitation, but annual precipitation decreased over time. Warbler egg volume increased with spring temperatures (which could not reflect Bergmann’s rule, but may support the resource rule). Hence, it seems that the measured climatic indices did not affect cuckoo egg size but may in part affect warbler egg size. Therefore, the decrease in cuckoo egg size may be the result of the coevolutionary arms race. Body and egg sizes in the cuckoos were negatively correlated whereas warbler body and egg sizes were uncorrelated, suggesting that selection probably acted on egg size directly and not via selection on body size. Taken together, these findings may indicate that climate change, the coevolutionary arms race, or both, affected egg sizes. It is suggested that drawing conclusions regarding the arms race without taking into account other selective pressures (e.g., climate) may confound conclusions regarding parasite-host systems.     

Hospital Expenditure at the End-of-Life: What Are the Impacts of Health Status and Health Risks?

Background

It is important for health policy and expenditure projections to understand the relationship between age, death and expenditure on health care (HC). Research has shown that older age groups incur lower hospital costs than previously anticipated and that remaining time to death (TTD) was a much stronger indicator for expenditure than age. How health behaviour or risk factors impact on HC utilisation and costs at the end of life is relatively unknown. Smoking and Body Mass Index (BMI) have featured most prominently and mixed findings exist as to the exact nature of this association.

Methods

This paper considers the relationship between TTD, age and expenditure for inpatient care in the last 12 quarters of life; and introduces measures of health status and risks. A longitudinal dataset covering 35 years is utilised, including baseline survey data linked to hospital and death records. The effect of age, TTD and health indicators on expenditure for inpatient care is estimated using a two-part model.

Results

As individuals approach death costs increase. This effect is highly significant (p<0.01) from the last until the 8th quarter before death and influenced by age. Statistically significant effects on costs were found for: smoking status, systolic blood pressure and lung function (FEV1). On average, smokers incurred lower quarterly costs in their last 12 quarters of life than non-smokers (~7%). Participants’ BMI at baseline did show a negative association with probability of HC utilisation however this effect disappeared when costs were estimated.

Conclusions

Health risk measures obtained at baseline provide a good indication of individuals’ probability of needing medical attention later in life and incurring costs, despite the small size of the effect. Utilising a linked dataset, where such measures are available can add substantially to our ability to explain the relationship between TTD and costs.     

Glacial Lake Expansion in the Central Himalayas by Landsat Images, 1990–2010

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a serious hazard in high, mountainous regions. In the Himalayas, catastrophic risks of GLOFs have increased in recent years because most Himalayan glaciers have experienced remarkable downwasting under a warming climate. However, current knowledge about the distribution and recent changes in glacial lakes within the central Himalaya mountain range is still limited. Here, we conducted a systematic investigation of the glacial lakes within the entire central Himalaya range by using an object-oriented image processing method based on the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) or Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) images from 1990 to 2010. We extracted the lake boundaries for four time points (1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010) and used a time series inspection method combined with a consistent spatial resolution of Landsat images that consistently revealed lake expansion. Our results show that the glacial lakes expanded rapidly by 17.11% from 1990 to 2010. The pre-existing, larger glacial lakes, rather than the newly formed lakes, contributed most to the areal expansion. The greatest expansions occurred at the altitudinal zones between 4800 m and 5600 m at the north side of the main Himalayan range and between 4500 m and 5600 m at the south side, respectively. Based on the expansion rate, area and type of glacial lakes, we identified 67 rapidly expanding glacial lakes in the central Himalayan region that need to be closely monitored in the future. The warming and increasing amounts of light-absorbing constituents of snow and ice could have accelerated the melting that directly affected the glacial lake expansion. Across the main central Himalayas, glacial lakes at the north side show more remarkable expansion than those at the south side. An effective monitoring and warning system for critical glacial lakes is urgently needed.     

Understanding Inequalities in Child Health in Ethiopia: Health Achievements Are Improving in the Period 2000–2011

Objective

In Ethiopia, coverage of key health services is low, and community based services have been implemented to improve access to key services. This study aims to describe and assess the level and the distribution of health outcomes and coverage for key services in Ethiopia, and their association with socioeconomic and geographic determinants.

Methods

Data were obtained from the 2000, 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys. As indicators of access to health care, the following variables were included: Under-five and neonatal deaths, skilled birth attendance, coverage of vaccinations, oral rehydration therapy for diarrhoea, and antibiotics for suspected pneumonia. For each of the indicators in 2011, inequality was described by estimating their concentration index and a geographic Gini index. For further assessment of the inequalities, the concentration indices were decomposed. An index of health achievement, integrating mean coverage and the distribution of coverage, was estimated. Changes from 2000 to 2011 in coverage, inequality and health achievement were assessed.

Results

Significant pro-rich inequalities were found for all indicators except treatment for suspected pneumonia in 2011. The geographic Gini index showed significant regional inequality for most indicators. The decomposition of the 2011 concentration indices revealed that the factor contributing the most to the observed inequalities was different levels of wealth. The mean of all indicators improved from 2000 to 2011, and the health achievement index improved for most indicators. The socioeconomic inequalities seem to increase from 2000 to 2011 for under-five and neonatal deaths, whereas they are stable or decreasing for the other indicators.

Conclusion

There is an unequal socioeconomic and geographic distribution of health and access to key services in Ethiopia. Although the health achievement indices improved for most indicators from 2000 to 2011, socioeconomic determinants need to be addressed in order to achieve better and more fairly distributed health.     

Saharan Dust Impacts on Air Quality: What Are the Potential Health Risks in West Africa?

Despite the proximity of the Sahara, very few studies about dust impact on air quality and human health have been conducted in West Africa. The lack of data is a major constraint on our understanding of the impacts on human health in this area. We analyzed PM₁₀ concentrations and horizontal visibility recorded in four West African stations. The pollution levels often exceed the standards defined by many countries/regulatory authorities and have been associated with serious health risks outside Africa. Over the Sahelian stations, 45.6% of the days between November 2006 and March 2007 were likely to impact human health and the studied Sudanian population was exposed to potential health effects every 5 days.     

Changes in the Potential Multiple Cropping System in Response to Climate Change in China from 1960–2010

The multiple cropping practice is essential to agriculture because it has been shown to significantly increase the grain yield and promote agricultural economic development. In this study, potential multiple cropping systems in China are calculated based on meteorological observation data by using the Agricultural Ecology Zone (AEZ) model. Following this, the changes in the potential cropping systems in response to climate change between the 1960s and the 2010s were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate that the changes of potential multiple cropping systems show tremendous heterogeneity in respect to the spatial pattern in China. A key finding is that the magnitude of change of the potential cropping systems showed a pattern of increase both from northern China to southern China and from western China to eastern China. Furthermore, the area found to be suitable only for single cropping decreased, while the area suitable for triple cropping increased significantly from the 1960s to the 2000s. During the studied period, the potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) gap between rain-fed and irrigated scenarios increased from 18% to 24%, which indicated noticeable growth of water supply limitations under the rain-fed scenario. The most significant finding of this research was that from the 1960s to the 2000s climate change had led to a significant increase of PMCI by 13% under irrigated scenario and 7% under rain-fed scenario across the whole of China. Furthermore, the growth of the annual mean temperature is identified as the main reason underlying the increase of PMCI. It has also been noticed that across China the changes of potential multiple cropping systems under climate change were different from region to region.     

Climate–growth relationships of the dominant tree species from semi-arid savanna woodland in Ethiopia

Long-term climate–growth relationships, were examined in tree rings of four co-occurring tree species from semi-arid Acacia savanna woodlands in Ethiopia. The main purpose of the study was to prove the presence of annual tree rings, evaluate the relationship between radial growth and climate parameters, and evaluate the association of El Niño and drought years in Ethiopia. The results showed that all species studied form distinct growth boundaries, though differences in distinctiveness were revealed among the species. Tree rings of the evergreen Balanites aegyptiaca were separated by vessels surrounding a thin parenchyma band and the growth boundary of the deciduous acacias was characterized by thin parenchyma bands. The mean annual diameter increment ranged from 3.6 to 5.0 mm. Acacia senegal and Acacia seyal showed more enhanced growth than Acacia tortilis and B. aegyptiaca. High positive correlations were found between the tree-ring width chronologies and precipitation data, and all species showed similar response to external climate forcing, which supports the formation of one tree-ring per year. Strong declines in tree-ring width correlated remarkably well with past El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and drought/famine periods in Ethiopia. Spectral analysis of the master tree-ring chronology indicated occurrences of periodic drought events, which fall within the spectral peak equivalent to 2–8 years. Our results proved the strong linkage between tree-ring chronologies and climate, which sheds light on the potential of dendrochronological studies developing in Ethiopia. The outcome of this study has important implications for paleoclimatic reconstructions and in restoration of degraded lands.     

Climate,sea level and culture in the Southeastern Mediterranean 20–4 ky BP

In this paper sediments accumulated between 20 and 4 ky BP on the Israeli coastal plain and their cultural contents are described. Sediments carried by the Nile River into the Mediterranean are transported northward along the Levant coast. These sediments are intermittently windblown on land and together with their derivative sandy loams form the bulk of sediments on the coastal plain of Israel. The younger these sediments are further west they are located. The sand beds apparently accumulated during cold and dry periods and pedogenesis occurred during warm and humid periods. Cultural remains on the coastal plain are encountered only in the soils. Hence in periods of sand transport humans avoided the coastal plain. Between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 18–20 ky BP) and about 4 ky BP, global sea level rose from −130 to 0 m. The coastal sediments accumulated during that period are here correlated with both sea level and climatic factors. From the last glacial the living space was continuously shrinking under the encroaching sea and human communities were continuously driven landward. Cultural evolution since 20 ky ago includes major leaps such as the move from hunting-gathering nomads to permanent, year-round settlements, the birth of religion, domestication and food production. Climatic events seemingly played a minor role in these leaps. They were apparently initiated by social factors possibly stemming from environmental constraints – the progressive loss of living space.     

Impacts of invasive biota in forest ecosystems in an aboveground–belowground context

Forest ecosystems world-wide are being subjected to invasion by organisms representing all domains of life. Here we use a combined aboveground-belowground approach to provide a conceptual framework for assessing how forests respond to biological invasions. We first address mechanisms by which invasive plants and aboveground and belowground consumers impact on forests, and highlight that although we have a growing understanding of the determinants of the effects of invasive plants, for invasive consumers we have yet to move from a series of iconic case studies to the development of general principles. We also address the effects of invasive biota in the context of the drivers of invasion, co-invasion and invasional meltdown, the issue of simultaneous species gains and losses, and forest restoration and recovery post-invasion. We then highlight areas that would benefit from further work, particularly regarding underlying mechanisms, determinants of context-dependency of invader effects, and linkages between causes and consequences of invasion. In concluding, we emphasize that biological invaders have the potential for large-scale and long-term impacts on forest processes, and consideration of these impacts in an aboveground-belowground context will enable better prediction of future responses of forests to invaders and their management as well as of restoration efforts.     

Impacts of the 2014–2017 global bleaching event on a protected remote atoll in the Western Indian Ocean

Coral Reefs - The third global bleaching event caused prolonged elevated sea surface temperatures from 2014 to 2017 that heavily impacted coral reefs worldwide. This study determines changes in...     

Laypeople's Risky Decisions in the Climate Change Context: Climate Engineering as a Risk-Defusing Strategy?

This study explores the development of laypeople's preferences for newly emerging climate engineering technology (CE). It examines whether laypeople perceive CE to be an acceptable back-up strategy (plan B) if current efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions were to fail. This idea is a common justification for CE research in the scientific debate and may significantly influence future public debates. Ninety-eight German participants chose their preferred climate policy strategy in a quasi-realistic scenario. Participants could chose between mitigation and three CE techniques as alternative options. We employed a think-aloud interview technique, which allowed us to trace participants’ informational needs and thought processes. Drawing on Huber's risk management decision theory, the study addressed whether specific CE options are more likely to be accepted if they are mentally represented as a back-up strategy. Results support this assumption, especially for cloud whitening. This result is especially relevant considering the high prevalence of the plan B framing in CE appraisal studies and its implications for public opinion-formation processes.     

Climate mediates roles of pollinator species in plant–pollinator networks

Aim

Understanding how climate conditions influence plant–pollinator interactions at the global scale is crucial to understand how pollinator communities and ecosystem function respond to environmental change. Here, we investigate whether climate drives differences in network roles of the main insect pollinator orders: Diptera, Coleoptera, Lepidoptera and Hymenoptera.

Location

Global.

Time period

1968–2020.

Major taxa studied

Diptera, Coleoptera, Lepidoptera and Hymenoptera.

Methods

We collated plant–pollinator networks from 26 countries and territories across the five main Köppen–Geiger climate zones. In total, we compiled data from 101 networks that included >1500 plant species from 167 families and >2800 pollinator species from 163 families. We assessed differences in the composition of plant–pollinator interactions among climate zones using a permutational ANOVA. We calculated standard network metrics for pollinator taxonomic groups and used Bayesian generalized mixed models to test whether climate zone influenced the proportion of pollinator network links and the level of pollinator generalism.

Results

We found that climate is a strong driver of compositional dissimilarities between plant–pollinator interactions. Relative to other taxa, bees and flies made up the greatest proportion of network links across climate zones. When network size was accounted for, bees were the most generalist pollinator group in the tropics, whereas non-bee Hymenoptera were the most generalist in arid zones, and syrphid flies were the most generalist in polar networks.

Main conclusions

We provide empirical evidence at the global scale that climate strongly influences the roles of different pollinator taxa within networks. Importantly, non-bee taxa, particularly flies, play central network roles across most climate zones, despite often being overlooked in pollination research and conservation. Our results identify the need for greater understanding of how global environmental change affects plant–pollinator interactions.     

Development of pertussis vaccine production and control in the National Institute of Public Health in the Netherlands during the years 1950–1962

The development of the pertussis vaccine production in the National Institute of Public Health in the Netherlands since 1953, and the results with the consecutive lots of vaccine in the mouse protection test and the U.S.A. toxicity test are described. The results in the latter test are compared with the results of a locally developed guinea pig toxicity test. Special attention is given to the difficulties encountered when the U.S.A. toxicity test is used for adsorbed DPT vaccines. The potency data of all lots of DPT vaccines produced since 1958 fall within the limits of the potency test as prescribed in the U.S.A. Minimum Requirements. There are indications that the increased potency of the vaccine may have led to a lower mortality rate of pertussis.     

Why does the subject speak? Prejudgement in fieldwork with Naxalites and Hindu rioters

This article explores the shifting trajectory of dramaturgical encounters with ‘subjects’ in two disparate contexts of violence in contemporary India: Naxalites in Jharkhand and Bihar; and participants in the 2002 riots in Gujarat. It argues that why (and thereby what) the subject speaks has to be located within the larger text of performances in the ‘field’, involving the prejudgement (in a Gadamerian sense) of both researcher and subject. Limits and possibilities to prior knowledges of both predetermine outcomes of interaction and inform the enterprise of doing theory in troubled contexts.     

Does Soil Organic Layer Thickness Affect Climate–Growth Relationships in the Black Spruce Boreal Ecosystem?

The observed long-term decrease in the regional fire activity of Eastern Canada results in excessive accumulation of organic layer on the forest floor of coniferous forests, which may affect climate–growth relationships in canopy trees. To test this hypothesis, we related tree-ring chronologies of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) to soil organic layer (SOL) depth at the stand scale in the lowland forests of Quebec’s Clay Belt. Late-winter and early-spring temperatures and temperature at the end of the previous year’s growing season were the major monthly level environmental controls of spruce growth. The effect of SOL on climate–growth relationships was moderate and reversed the association between tree growth and summer aridity from a negative to a positive relationship: trees growing on thin organic layers were thus negatively affected by drought, whereas it was the opposite for sites with deep (>20–30 cm) organic layers. This indicates the development of wetter conditions on sites with thicker SOL. Deep SOL were also associated with an increased frequency of negative growth anomalies (pointer years) in tree-ring chronologies. Our results emphasize the presence of nonlinear growth responses to SOL accumulation, suggesting 20–30 cm as a provisional threshold with respect to the effects of SOL on the climate–growth relationship. Given the current climatic conditions characterized by generally low-fire activity and a trend toward accumulation of SOL, the importance of SOL effects in the black spruce ecosystem is expected to increase in the future.     

Impacts of grazing on the alkalinized–salinized meadow steppe ecosystem in the Songnen Plain,China – A simulation study

A process-based model was built to describe the ecological processes of an alkalinized–salinized meadow steppe ecosystem, including the hydrological and alkalization–salinization processes in the soil, as well as the succession and growth dynamics of the grassland communities. A numerical integration model and a water and salt balance model were integrated into a physically-based model, describing the dynamics of soil moisture, salt concentration, exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) and pH. Meteorological variables and soil characteristics were the main environmental factors used to estimate the growth dynamics of three herbaceous communities that were dominated by Aneurolepidium chinense, Chloris virgata, and Suaeda glauca, respectively. Model validation showed good agreement between the simulated results and the observed data. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the potential changes in hydrological and alkalization–salinization processes, succession and growth dynamics from 1991 to 1998, under five grazing intensities, namely 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 90% above-ground biomass removal (AGBR). The simulations show that soil moisture decreased markedly under the 50%, 75% and 90% AGBR, but increased slightly under the 25% AGBR. The de-alkalization and de-salinization processes would be predominant under the 0% AGBR, and the processes became a little slower under the 25% AGBR. In contrast, the 50%, 75% and 90% AGBR accelerated the degradation of soil properties. The grassland was dominated by A. chinense under the 0% AGBR, and by A. chinense and C. virgata under the 25% AGBR. C. virgata could grow on slightly alkalinized–salinized soil and became a dominant species after three years of 50% AGBR. The soil degraded quickly and only S. glauca could grow on the severe alkalinized–salinized soil if the grassland received 75% or 90% AGBR. The grassland grew well under the 0% AGBR, and the biomass stayed at moderate level under 25% AGBR. The 50%, 75% and 90% AGBR decreased the grassland growth greatly. After accumulating the grazed biomass for each year, the 25% AGBR would provide the highest production, and the grassland production would decrease sharply with the increasing of grazing intensities. The simulation results indicate that 25% AGBR is significant for preserving the soil from degradation, and maintaining high grassland production.