Scaling of species diversity and body mass in mammals: Cope’s rule and the evolutionary cost of large size

Abstract

Equations are constructed describing the inverse correlation of species diversity and body mass in extant and Cenozoic mammals. Cope’s rule, the tendency for many mammal clades to increase in body size through time, through phyletic change in single lineages or turnover within species groups, is interpreted as a probability function reducing diversity potential as a tradeoff for ecological/evolutionary gains. The inverse rule predicts that large species in clades will be less diverse than smaller species and, unless origination rates remain high among smaller clade members, clades conforming to Cope’s rule will decline in diversity, moving towards extinction. This proposition is evaluated in the Cenozoic histories of five North American mammal clades; cotton rats, felids, canids, hyaenodontids, and equids. Diversity potential of different size classes within the 3.75 million year phyletic history of the muskrat, Ondatra zibethicus, is also examined. A corollary prediction of the inverse rule, that large species should have longer durations (species lifespans) than small species, is unresolved. Successful clades maintain small size or a significant number of smaller species relative to clade average size. The potential loss of unique extant large mammal species justifies the conservation effort to protect them. The similarity of scaling exponents of species diversity to mass around a slope of -1.0 suggests that species diversity is correlated with home range size, the latter related to the probability of population fragmentation.     

The evolution of body size in extant groups of North American freshwater fishes: speciation,size distributions,and Cope's rule

Change in body size within an evolutionary lineage over time has been under investigation since the synthesis of Cope's rule, which suggested that there is a tendency for mammals to evolve larger body size. Data from the fossil record have subsequently been examined for several other taxonomic groups to determine whether they also displayed an evolutionary increase in body size. However, we are not aware of any species-level study that has investigated the evolution of body size within an extant continental group. Data acquired from the fossil record and data derived from the evolutionary relationships of extant species are not similar, with each set exhibiting both strengths and weaknesses related to inferring evolutionary patterns. Consequently, expectation that general trends exhibited in the fossil record will correspond to patterns in extant groups is not necessarily warranted. Using phylogenetic relationships of extant species, we show that five of nine families of North American freshwater fishes exhibit an evolutionary trend of decreasing body size. These trends result from the basal position of large species and the more derived position of small species within families. Such trends may be caused by the invasion of small streams and subsequent isolation and speciation. This pattern, potentially influenced by size-biased dispersal rates and the high percentage of small streams in North America, suggests a scenario that could result in the generation of the size-frequency distribution of North American freshwater fishes.     

Late Quaternary reptile extinctions: size matters,insularity dominates

Aim A major Late Quaternary vertebrate extinction event affected mostly large‐bodied ‘megafauna’. This is well documented in both mammals and birds, but evidence of a similar trend in reptiles is scant. We assess the relationship between body size and Late Quaternary extinction in reptiles at the global level. Location Global. Methods We compile a body size database for all 82 reptile species that are known to have gone extinct during the last 50,000 years and compare them with the sizes of 10,090 extant reptile species (97% of known extant diversity). We assess the body size distributions in the major reptile groups: crocodiles, lizards, snakes and turtles, while testing and correcting for a size bias in the fossil record. We examine geographical biases in extinction by contrasting mainland and insular reptile assemblages, and testing for biases within regions and then globally by using geographically weighted models. Results Extinct reptiles were larger than extant ones, but there was considerable variation in extinction size biases among groups. Extinct lizards and turtles were large, extinct crocodiles were small and there was no trend in snakes. Lizard lineages vary in the way their extinction is related to size. Extinctions were particularly prevalent on islands, with 73 of the 82 extinct species being island endemics. Four others occurred in Australia. The fossil record is biased towards large‐bodied reptiles, but extinct lizards were larger than extant ones even after we account for this. Main conclusions Body size played a complex role in the extinction of Late Quaternary reptiles. Larger lizard and turtle species were clearly more affected by extinction mechanisms such as over exploitation and invasive species, resulting in a prevalence of large‐bodied species among extinct taxa. Insularity was by far the strongest correlate of recent reptile extinctions, suggesting that size‐biased extinction mechanisms are amplified in insular environments.     

Climate history,human impacts and global body size of Carnivora (Mammalia: Eutheria) at multiple evolutionary scales

Aim One of the longest recognized patterns in macroecology, Bergmann’s rule, describes the tendency for homeothermic animals to have larger body sizes in cooler climates than their phylogenetic relatives in warmer climates. Here we provide an integrative process‐based explanation for Bergmann’s rule at the global scale for the mammal order Carnivora. Location Global. Methods Our database comprises the body sizes of 209 species of extant terrestrial Carnivora, which were analysed using phylogenetic autocorrelation and phylogenetic eigenvector regression. The interspecific variation in body size was partitioned into phylogenetic (P) and specific (S) components, and mean P‐ and S‐components across species were correlated with environmental variables and human occupation both globally and for regions glaciated or not during the last Ice Age. Results Three‐quarters of the variation in body size can be explained by phylogenetic relationships among species, and the geographical pattern of mean values of the P‐component is the opposite of the pattern predicted by Bergmann’s rule. Partial regression revealed that at least 43% of global variation in the mean phylogenetic component is explained by current environmental factors. In contrast, the mean S‐component of body size shows large positive deviations from ancestors across the Holarctic, and negative deviations in southern South America, the Sahara Desert, and tropical Asia. There is a moderately strong relationship between the human footprint and body size in glaciated regions, explaining 19% of the variance of the mean P‐component. The relationship with the human footprint and the P‐component is much weaker in the rest of the world, and there is no relationship between human footprint and S‐component in any region. Main conclusions Bergmannian clines are stronger at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere because of the continuous alternation of glacial–interglacial cycles throughout the late Pliocene and Pleistocene, which generated increased species turnover, differential colonization and more intense adaptive processes soon after glaciated areas became exposed. Our analyses provide a unified explanation for an adaptive Bergmann’s rule within species and for an interspecific trend towards larger body sizes in assemblages resulting from historical changes in climate and contemporary human impacts.     

Of mice and mammoths: evaluations of causal explanations for body size evolution in insular mammals

Aim We investigated the hypothesis that the insular body size of mammals results from selective forces whose influence varies with characteristics of the focal islands and the focal species, and with interactions among species (ecological displacement and release). Location Islands world‐wide. Methods We assembled data on the geographic characteristics (area, isolation, maximum elevation, latitude) and climate (annual averages and seasonality of temperature and precipitation) of islands, and on the ecological and morphological characteristics of focal species (number of mammalian competitors and predators, diet, body size of mainland reference populations) that were most relevant to our hypothesis (385 insular populations from 98 species of extant, non‐volant mammals across 248 islands). We used regression tree analyses to examine the hypothesized contextual importance of these factors in explaining variation in the insular body size of mammals. Results The results of regression tree analyses were consistent with predictions based on hypotheses of ecological release (more pronounced changes in body size on islands lacking mammalian competitors or predators), immigrant selection (more pronounced gigantism in small species inhabiting more isolated islands), thermoregulation and endurance during periods of climatic or environmental stress (more pronounced gigantism of small mammals on islands of higher latitudes or on those with colder and more seasonal climates), and resource subsidies (larger body size for mammals that utilize aquatic prey). The results, however, were not consistent with a prediction based on resource limitation and island area; that is, the insular body size of large mammals was not positively correlated with island area. Main conclusions These results support the hypothesis that the body size evolution of insular mammals is influenced by a combination of selective forces whose relative importance and nature of influence are contextual. While there may exist a theoretical optimal body size for mammals in general, the optimum for a particular insular population varies in a predictable manner with characteristics of the islands and the species, and with interactions among species. This study did, however, produce some unanticipated results that merit further study – patterns associated with Bergmann’s rule are amplified on islands, and the body size of small mammals appears to peak at intermediate and not maximum values of latitude and island isolation.     

Mass extinctions do not explain skew in interspecific body size distributions

In several higher animal taxa, such as mammals and birds, the distribution of species body sizes is heavily skewed towards small size. Previous studies have suggested that small‐bodied organisms are less prone to extinction than large‐bodied species. If small body size is favourable during mass extinction events, a post mass extinction excess of small‐bodied species may proliferate and maintain skewed body size distributions sometime after. Here, we modelled mass extinctions and found that even unrealistically strong body mass selection has little effect on the skew of interspecific body size distributions. Moreover, selection against large body size may, counter intuitively, skew size distributions towards large body size. In any case, subsequent evolutionary diversification rapidly erases these rather small effects mass extinctions may have on size distributions. Next, we used body masses of extant species and phylogenetic methods to investigate possible changes in body size distributions across the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K‐Pg) mass extinction. Body size distributions of extant clades that originated during the Cretaceous are on average more skewed than their subclades that originated during the Paleogene, but the difference is only minor in mammals, and in birds, it can be explained by a positive relationship between species richness and skewness that is also present in clades that originated after the transition. Hence, we cannot infer from extant species whether the K‐Pg mass extinctions were size‐selective, but they are not the reason why most extant bird and mammal species are small‐bodied.     

Cope's rule and the evolution of body size in Pinnipedimorpha (Mammalia: Carnivora)

Cope's rule describes the evolutionary trend for animal lineages to increase in body size over time. In this study, we tested the validity of Cope's rule for a marine mammal clade, the Pinnipedimorpha, which includes the extinct Desmatophocidae, and extant Phocidae (earless seals), Otariidae (fur seals and sea lions), and Odobenidae (walruses). We tested for the presence of Cope's rule by compiling a large dataset of body size data for extant and fossil pinnipeds and then examined how body size evolved through time. We found that there was a positive relationship between geologic age and body size. However, this trend is the result of differences between early assemblages of small-bodied pinnipeds (Oligocene to early Miocene) and later assemblages (middle Miocene to Pliocene) for which species exhibited greater size diversity. No significant differences were found between the number of increases or decreases in body size within Pinnipedimorpha or within specific pinniped clades. This suggests that the pinniped body size increase was driven by passive diversification into vacant niche space, with the common ancestor of Pinnipedimorpha occurring near the minimum adult body size possible for a marine mammal. Based upon the above results, the evolutionary history of pinnipeds does not follow Cope's rule.     

Bergmann′s rule in mammals: a cross‐species interspecific pattern

Although Bergmann’s rule – stating that among closely related species, the bigger ones will inhabit the colder climates/higher latitudes – was formulated for inter‐specific comparisons, most analyses that tested this pattern in mammals were on an intra‐specific level. To date, no large‐scale taxonomy‐driven cross‐species evaluation of the pattern predicted by Bergmann exists. Here we show, in a dataset comprising 3561 mammal species from 26 orders, that while there is no significant correlation between latitude and body mass using conventional methods, this correlation is highly significant when the phylogenetic structure of the dataset is accounted for, thus supporting Bergmann’s claim that the rule only applies to closely related species. Analyses of different subsets indicate that the Bergmann’s rule is evident across a variety of latitude ranges. In many taxonomic subsets, when analysed alone, there is no significant correlation between body mass and latitude. In combination with both the significant relationship in the overall dataset and with results of intra‐specific analyses from the literature, this suggests that Bergmann’s rule describes a fundamental principle within mammals, but that its expression has been modified by a variety of factors during mammalian diversification yet to be resolved.     

Slaying dragons: limited evidence for unusual body size evolution on islands

Aim Island taxa often attain forms outside the range achieved by mainland relatives. Body size evolution of vertebrates on islands has therefore received much attention, with two seemingly conflicting patterns thought to prevail: (1) islands harbour animals of extreme size, and (2) islands promote evolution towards medium body size (‘the island rule’). We test both hypotheses using body size distributions of mammal, lizard and bird species. Location World‐wide. Methods We assembled body size and insularity datasets for the world’s lizards, birds and mammals. We compared the frequencies with which the largest or smallest member of a group is insular with the frequencies expected if insularity is randomly assigned within groups. We tested whether size extremes on islands considered across mammalian phylogeny depart from a null expectation under a Brownian motion model. We tested the island rule by comparing insular and mainland members of (1) a taxonomic level and (2) mammalian sister species, to determine if large insular animals tend to evolve smaller body sizes while small ones evolve larger sizes. Results The smallest species in a taxon (order, family or genus) are insular no more often than would be expected by chance in all groups. The largest species within lizard families and bird genera (but no other taxonomic levels) are insular more often than expected. The incidence of extreme sizes in insular mammals never departs from the null, except among extant genera, where gigantism is marginally less common than expected under a Brownian motion null. Mammals follow the island rule at the genus level and when comparing sister species and clades. This appears to be driven mainly by insular dwarfing in large‐bodied lineages. A similar pattern in birds is apparent for species within orders. However, lizards follow the converse pattern. Main conclusions The popular misconception that islands have more than their fair share of size extremes may stem from a greater tendency to notice gigantism and dwarfism when they occur on islands. There is compelling evidence for insular dwarfing in large mammals, but not in other taxa, and little evidence for the second component of the island rule – gigantism in small‐bodied taxa.     

Body Size Evolution in Extant Oryzomyini Rodents: Cope's Rule or Miniaturization?

At the macroevolutionary level, one of the first and most important hypotheses that proposes an evolutionary tendency in the evolution of body sizes is "Cope's rule". This rule has considerable empirical support in the fossil record and predicts that the size of species within a lineage increases over evolutionary time. Nevertheless, there is also a large amount of evidence indicating the opposite pattern of miniaturization over evolutionary time. A recent analysis using a single phylogenetic tree approach and a bayesian based model of evolution found no evidence for Cope's rule in extant mammal species. Here we utilize a likelihood-based phylogenetic method, to test the evolutionary trend in body size, which considers phylogenetic uncertainty, to discern between Cope's rule and miniaturization, using extant Oryzomyini rodents as a study model. We evaluated body size trends using two principal predictions: (a) phylogenetically related species are more similar in their body size, than expected by chance; (b) body size increased (Cope's rule)/decreased (miniaturization) over time. Consequently the distribution of forces and/or constraints that affect the tendency are homogenous and generate this directional process from a small/large sized ancestor. Results showed that body size in the Oryzomyini tribe evolved according to phylogenetic relationships, with a positive trend, from a small sized ancestor. Our results support that the high diversity and specialization currently observed in the Oryzomyini tribe is a consequence of the evolutionary trend of increased body size, following and supporting Cope's rule.     

‘On being the right size’ – Do aliens follow the rules?

Aim

To assess whether mammalian species introduced onto islands across the globe have evolved to exhibit body size patterns consistent with the ‘island rule,’, and to test an ecological explanation for body size evolution of insular mammals.

Location

Islands worldwide.

Methods

We assembled data on body mass, geographical characteristics (latitude, maximum elevation) and ecological communities (number of mammalian competitors, predators and prey) for 385 introduced populations across 285 islands, comprising 56 species of extant, non‐volant mammals. We used linear regression, ANCOVA and regression tree analyses to test whether introduced populations of mammals exhibit the island rule pattern, whether the degree of body size change increased with time in isolation and whether residual variation about the general trend can be attributed to the geographical and ecological characteristics of the islands.

Results

Introduced populations follow the predicted island rule trend, with body size shifts more pronounced for populations with greater residence times on the islands. Small mammals evolved to larger body sizes in lower latitudes and on islands with limited topographic relief. Consistent with our hypothesis on the ecology of evolution, body size of insular introduced populations was influenced by co‐occurring species of mammalian competitors, predators and prey.

Conclusion

The island rule is a pervasive pattern, exhibited across a broad span of geographical regions, taxa, time periods and, as evidenced here, for introduced as well as native mammals. Time in isolation impacts body size evolution profoundly. Body size shift of introduced mammals was much more pronounced with increasing residence times, yet far less than that exhibited by native, palaeo‐insular mammals (residence times > 10,000 years). Given the antiquity of many species introductions, it appears that much of what we view as the natural character and ecological dynamics of recent insular communities may have been rendered artefacts of ancient colonizations by humans and commensals.     

Of mice and mammoths: generality and antiquity of the island rule

Aim

We assessed the generality of the island rule in a database comprising 1593 populations of insular mammals (439 species, including 63 species of fossil mammals), and tested whether observed patterns differed among taxonomic and functional groups.

Location

Islands world‐wide.

Methods

We measured museum specimens (fossil mammals) and reviewed the literature to compile a database of insular animal body size (S_i = mean mass of individuals from an insular population divided by that of individuals from an ancestral or mainland population, M). We used linear regressions to investigate the relationship between S_i and M, and ANCOVA to compare trends among taxonomic and functional groups.

Results

S_i was significantly and negatively related to the mass of the ancestral or mainland population across all mammals and within all orders of extant mammals analysed, and across palaeo‐insular (considered separately) mammals as well. Insular body size was significantly smaller for bats and insectivores than for the other orders studied here, but significantly larger for mammals that utilized aquatic prey than for those restricted to terrestrial prey.

Main conclusions

The island rule appears to be a pervasive pattern, exhibited by mammals from a broad range of orders, functional groups and time periods. There remains, however, much scatter about the general trend; this residual variation may be highly informative as it appears consistent with differences among species, islands and environmental characteristics hypothesized to influence body size evolution in general. The more pronounced gigantism and dwarfism of palaeo‐insular mammals, in particular, is consistent with a hypothesis that emphasizes the importance of ecological interactions (time in isolation from mammalian predators and competitors was 0.1 to > 1.0 Myr for palaeo‐insular mammals, but < 0.01 Myr for extant populations of insular mammals). While ecological displacement may be a major force driving diversification in body size in high‐diversity biotas, ecological release in species‐poor biotas often results in the convergence of insular mammals on the size of intermediate but absent species.     

Biogeography of body size in Pacific island birds

Many insular vertebrates have undergone rapid and dramatic changes in body size compared to their mainland counterparts. Here we explore the relationship between two well known patterns of island body size – the tendency for large‐bodied species to dwarf and small‐bodied species to get larger on islands, known as the “island rule”, and the scaling of maximum and minimum body size of island assemblages with island area. Drawing on both fossil and modern data, we examined the relationship between body size and island area in Pacific island birds, both within clades and at the island assemblage level. We found that the size of the smallest bird on each island decreased with island area while the maximum body size increased with island area. Similarly, within clades the body size of small‐bodied groups decreased and large‐bodied groups increased from small to large islands, consistent with the island rule. However, the magnitude of size change within clades was not sufficient to explain the overall scaling of maximum size with island area. Instead, the pattern was driven primarily by the evolution of very large, flightless birds on large islands. Human‐mediated extinctions on islands over the past few millennia severely impacted large, flightless birds, to the effect that this macroecological pattern has been virtually erased. After controlling for effects of biogeographic region and island area, we found island productivity to be the best predictor of maximum size in flightless birds. This result, and the striking similarities in maximum body size between flightless birds and island mammals, suggests a common energetic mechanism linking body size and landmass area in both the island rule and the scaling of island body size extremes.     

Body size evolution in an old insect order: No evidence for Cope's Rule in spite of fitness benefits of large size

We integrate field data and phylogenetic comparative analyses to investigate causes of body size evolution and stasis in an old insect order: odonates (“dragonflies and damselflies”). Fossil evidence for “Cope's Rule” in odonates is weak or nonexistent since the last major extinction event 65 million years ago, yet selection studies show consistent positive selection for increased body size among adults. In particular, we find that large males in natural populations of the banded demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens) over several generations have consistent fitness benefits both in terms of survival and mating success. Additionally, there was no evidence for stabilizing or conflicting selection between fitness components within the adult life‐stage. This lack of stabilizing selection during the adult life‐stage was independently supported by a literature survey on different male and female fitness components from several odonate species. We did detect several significant body size shifts among extant taxa using comparative methods and a large new molecular phylogeny for odonates. We suggest that the lack of Cope's rule in odonates results from conflicting selection between fitness advantages of large adult size and costs of long larval development. We also discuss competing explanations for body size stasis in this insect group.     

The fossil record of the sixth extinction

Comparing the magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis with those in the fossil record is difficult without an understanding of differential preservation. Integrating data from palaeontological databases with information on IUCN status, ecology and life history characteristics of contemporary mammals, we demonstrate that only a small and biased fraction of threatened species (< 9%) have a fossil record, compared with 20% of non‐threatened species. We find strong taphonomic biases related to body size and geographic range. Modern species with a fossil record tend to be large and widespread and were described in the 19^th century. The expected magnitude of the current extinction based only on species with a fossil record is about half of that of one based on all modern species; values for genera are similar. The record of ancient extinctions may be similarly biased, with many species having originated and gone extinct without leaving a tangible record.     

Body size evolution in insular vertebrates: generality of the island rule

Aim My goals here are to (1) assess the generality of the island rule – the graded trend from gigantism in small species to dwarfism in larger species – for mammals and other terrestrial vertebrates on islands and island‐like ecosystems; (2) explore some related patterns of body size variation in insular vertebrates, in particular variation in body size as a function of island area and isolation; (3) offer causal explanations for these patterns; and (4) identify promising areas for future studies on body size evolution in insular vertebrates. Location Oceanic and near‐shore archipelagos, and island‐like ecosystems world‐wide. Methods Body size measurements of insular vertebrates (non‐volant mammals, bats, birds, snakes and turtles) were obtained from the literature, and then regression analyses were conducted to test whether body size of insular populations varies as a function of body size of the species on the mainland (the island rule) and with characteristics of the islands (i.e. island isolation and area). Results The island rule appears to be a general phenomenon both with mammalian orders (and to some degree within families and particular subfamilies) as well as across the species groups studied, including non‐volant mammals, bats, passerine birds, snakes and turtles. In addition, body size of numerous species in these classes of vertebrates varies significantly with island isolation and island area. Main conclusions The patterns observed here – the island rule and the tendency for body size among populations of particular species to vary with characteristics of the islands – are actually distinct and scale‐dependent phenomena. Patterns within archipelagos reflect the influence of island isolation and area on selective pressures (immigration filters, resource limitation, and intra‐ and interspecific interactions) within particular species. These patterns contribute to variation about the general trend referred to as the island rule, not the signal for that more general, large‐scale pattern. The island rule itself is an emergent pattern resulting from a combination of selective forces whose importance and influence on insular populations vary in a predictable manner along a gradient from relatively small to large species. As a result, body size of insular species tends to converge on a size that is optimal, or fundamental, for a particular bau plan and ecological strategy.     

Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge

Each year, two or three species that had been considered to be extinct are rediscovered. Uncertainty about whether or not a species is extinct is common, because rare and highly threatened species are difficult to detect. Biological traits such as body size and range size are expected to be associated with extinction. However, these traits, together with the intensity of search effort, might influence the probability of detection and extinction differently. This makes statistical analysis of extinction and rediscovery challenging. Here, we use a variant of survival analysis known as cure rate modelling to differentiate factors that influence rediscovery from those that influence extinction. We analyse a global data set of 99 mammals that have been categorized as extinct or possibly extinct. We estimate the probability that each of these mammals is still extant and thus estimate the proportion of missing (presumed extinct) mammals that are incorrectly assigned extinction. We find that body mass and population density are predictors of extinction, and body mass and search effort predict rediscovery. In mammals, extinction rate increases with body mass and population density, and these traits act synergistically to greatly elevate extinction rate in large species that also occurred in formerly dense populations. However, when they remain extant, larger‐bodied missing species are rediscovered sooner than smaller species. Greater search effort increases the probability of rediscovery in larger species of missing mammals, but has a minimal effect on small species, which take longer to be rediscovered, if extant. By separating the effects of species characteristics on extinction and detection, and using models with the assumption that a proportion of missing species will never be rediscovered, our new approach provides estimates of extinction probability in species with few observation records and scant ecological information.     

Sexual size dimorphism and Rensch's rule in Canidae

The size variation between males and females of a species is a phenomenon known as sexual size dimorphism (SSD). The observed patterns of variation in SSD among species has led to the formulation of Rensch's rule, which establishes that, in species showing a male size bias, SSD increases with an increase in the body size of the species. However, for species in which there is a female size bias, the SSD would decrease when the body size of the species increases. In the present study, we examined the variation in body size and SSD of 33 species of canids from estimates of body mass and body length. We studied its relationship with life‐history characteristics and tested Rensch's rule using phylogenetic generalized least squares and phylogenetic reduced major axis regressions, respectively. We observed the existence of correlation between body mass and body length, although the SSDs from these estimators are uncorrelated. SSD did not show the pattern predicted by Rensch's rule. SSD also did not show any correlation with life‐history traits. It is likely that the low SSD observed in canids is related to the monogamy observed in the family, which is a rare situation in mammals.     

POTENTIAL PITFALLS OF RECONSTRUCTING DEEP TIME EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY WITH ONLY EXTANT DATA,A CASE STUDY USING THE CANIDAE (MAMMALIA,CARNIVORA)

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns and their underlying processes is a central goal in biology. Yet many analyses of deep evolutionary histories assume that data from the fossil record is too incomplete to include, and rely solely on databases of extant taxa. Excluding fossil taxa assumes that character state distributions across living taxa are faithful representations of a clade's entire evolutionary history. Many factors can make this assumption problematic. Fossil taxa do not simply lead‐up to extant taxa; they represent now‐extinct lineages that can substantially impact interpretations of character evolution for extant groups. Here, we analyze body mass data for extant and fossil canids (dogs, foxes, and relatives) for changes in mean and variance through time. AIC‐based model selection recovered distinct models for each of eight canid subgroups. We compared model fit of parameter estimates for (1) extant data alone and (2) extant and fossil data, demonstrating that the latter performs significantly better. Moreover, extant‐only analyses result in unrealistically low estimates of ancestral mass. Although fossil data are not always available, reconstructions of deep‐time organismal evolution in the absence of deep‐time data can be highly inaccurate, and we argue that every effort should be made to include fossil data in macroevolutionary studies.     

On the validity of Bergmann's rule

Aim We reviewed the occurrence of Bergmann's rule in birds (ninety‐four species) and mammals (149 species), using only studies where statistical significance of the results was tested. We also tested whether studies using different characters as surrogates of body size have a different tendency to conform to Bergmann's rule, whether body size and nest type (in birds) have an influence on the tendency to conform to the rule, and whether sedentary birds conform to the rule more than migratory birds. Location Worldwide. Methods We reviewed published data on geographic and temporal variation in body size, using only studies where the statistical significance of the results was tested. We asked how many species conform to the rule out of all species studied in each order and family. Results Over 72% of the birds and 65% of the mammal species follow Bergmann's rule. An overall tendency to follow the rule occurs also within orders and families. Studies using body mass in mammals show the greatest tendency to adhere to Bergmann's rule (linear measurements and dental measurements show a weaker tendency); while in birds, studies using body mass and other surrogates (linear measurements and egg size) show a similar tendency. Birds of different body mass categories exhibit a similar tendency to follow Bergmann's rule, while in mammals the lower body size categories (4–50 and 50–500 g) show a significantly lower tendency to conform to the rule. Sedentary birds tend to conform to Bergmann's rule more than migratory species. Nest type does not affect the tendency to conform to Bergmann's rule. Main conclusions Bergmann's rule is a valid ecological generalization for birds and mammals.