Inferring past demographic changes from contemporary genetic data: A simulation‐based evaluation of the ABC methods implemented in diyabc

Inferring the demographic history of species and their populations is crucial to understand their contemporary distribution, abundance and adaptations. The high computational overhead of likelihood‐based inference approaches severely restricts their applicability to large data sets or complex models. In response to these restrictions, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods have been developed to infer the demographic past of populations and species. Here, we present the results of an evaluation of the ABC‐based approach implemented in the popular software package diyabc using simulated data sets (mitochondrial DNA sequences, microsatellite genotypes and single nucleotide polymorphisms). We simulated population genetic data under five different simple, single‐population models to assess the model recovery rates as well as the bias and error of the parameter estimates. The ability of diyabc to recover the correct model was relatively low (0.49): 0.6 for the simplest models and 0.3 for the more complex models. The recovery rate improved significantly when reducing the number of candidate models from five to three (from 0.57 to 0.71). Among the parameters of interest, the effective population size was estimated at a higher accuracy compared to the timing of events. Increased amounts of genetic data did not significantly improve the accuracy of the parameter estimates. Some gains in accuracy and decreases in error were observed for scaled parameters (e.g., N_eμ) compared to unscaled parameters (e.g., N_e and μ). We concluded that diyabc ‐based assessments are not suited to capture a detailed demographic history, but might be efficient at capturing simple, major demographic changes.     

COMPUTER PROGRAMS: onesamp: a program to estimate effective population size using approximate Bayesian computation

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, onesamp that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. onesamp requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters. onesamp provides an estimate of effective population size, along with 95% credible limits. We illustrate the use of onesamp with an example data set from a re-introduced population of ibex Capra ibex.     

Population structure and migration pattern of a conifer pathogen, Grosmannia clavigera, as influenced by its symbiont, the mountain pine beetle

We investigated the population structure of Grosmannia clavigera (Gc), a fungal symbiont of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) that plays a crucial role in the establishment and reproductive success of this pathogen. This insect-fungal complex has destroyed over 16 million ha of lodgepole pine forests in Canada, the largest MPB epidemic in recorded history. During this current epidemic, MPB has expanded its range beyond historically recorded boundaries, both northward and eastward, and has now reached the jack pine of Alberta, potentially threatening the Canadian boreal forest. To better understand the dynamics between the beetle and its fungal symbiont, we sampled 19 populations in western North America and genotyped individuals from these populations with eight microsatellite markers. The fungus displayed high haplotype diversity, with over 250 unique haplotypes observed in 335 single spore isolates. Linkage equilibria in 13 of the 19 populations suggested that the fungus reproduces sexually. Bayesian clustering and distance analyses identified four genetic clusters that corresponded to four major geographical regions, which suggested that the epidemic arose from multiple geographical sources. A genetic cluster north of the Rocky Mountains, where the MPB has recently become established, experienced a population bottleneck, probably as a result of the recent range expansion. The two genetic clusters located north and west of the Rocky Mountains contained many fungal isolates admixed from all populations, possibly due to the massive movement of MPB during the epidemic. The general agreement in north-south differentiation of MPB and G. clavigera populations points to the fungal pathogen's dependence on the movement of its insect vector. In addition, the patterns of diversity and the individual assignment tests of the fungal associate suggest that migration across the Rocky Mountains occurred via a northeastern corridor, in accordance with meteorological patterns and observation of MPB movement data. Our results highlight the potential of this pathogen for both expansion and sexual reproduction, and also identify some possible barriers to gene flow. Understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of this fungus-beetle association is important for the modelling and prediction of MPB epidemics.     

msABC: a modification of Hudson's ms to facilitate multi-locus ABC analysis

With the availability of whole-genome sequence data biologists are able to test hypotheses regarding the demography of populations. Furthermore, the advancement of the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methodology allows the demographic inference to be performed in a simple framework using summary statistics. We present here msABC, a coalescent-based software that facilitates the simulation of multi-locus data, suitable for an ABC analysis. msABC is based on Hudson's ms algorithm, which is used extensively for simulating neutral demographic histories of populations. The flexibility of the original algorithm has been extended so that sample size may vary among loci, missing data can be incorporated in simulations and calculations, and a multitude of summary statistics for single or multiple populations is generated. The source code of msABC is available at http://bio.lmu.de/~pavlidis/msabc or upon request from the authors.     

Inferring the geographic origin of a range expansion: Latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates inferred from genomic data in an ABC framework with the program x‐origin

Climatic or environmental change is not only driving distributional shifts in species today, but it has also caused distributions to expand and contract in the past. Inferences about the geographic locations of past populations especially regions that served as refugia (i.e., source populations) and migratory routes are a challenging endeavour. Refugial areas may be evidenced from fossil records or regions of temporal stability inferred from ecological niche models. Genomic data offer an alternative and broadly applicable source of information about the locality of refugial areas, especially relative to fossil data, which are either unavailable or incomplete for most species. Here, we present a pipeline we developed (called x ‐origin ) for statistically inferring the geographic origin of range expansion using a spatially explicit coalescent model and an approximate Bayesian computation testing framework. In addition to assessing the probability of specific latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates of refugial or source populations, such inferences can also be made accounting for the effects of temporal and spatial environmental heterogeneity, which may impact migration routes. We demonstrate x ‐origin with an analysis of genomic data collected in the Collared pika that underwent postglacial expansion across Alaska, as well as present an assessment of its accuracy under a known model of expansion to validate the approach.     

WFABC: a Wright–Fisher ABC‐based approach for inferring effective population sizes and selection coefficients from time‐sampled data

With novel developments in sequencing technologies, time‐sampled data are becoming more available and accessible. Naturally, there have been efforts in parallel to infer population genetic parameters from these data sets. Here, we compare and analyse four recent approaches based on the Wright–Fisher model for inferring selection coefficients (s) given effective population size (N_e), with simulated temporal data sets. Furthermore, we demonstrate the advantage of a recently proposed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)‐based method that is able to correctly infer genomewide average N_e from time‐serial data, which is then set as a prior for inferring per‐site selection coefficients accurately and precisely. We implement this ABC method in a new software and apply it to a classical time‐serial data set of the medionigra genotype in the moth Panaxia dominula. We show that a recessive lethal model is the best explanation for the observed variation in allele frequency by implementing an estimator of the dominance ratio (h).     

Comparing RADseq and microsatellites to infer complex phylogeographic patterns,an empirical perspective in the Crucian carp,Carassius carassius,L.

The conservation of threatened species must be underpinned by phylogeographic knowledge. This need is epitomized by the freshwater fish Carassius carassius, which is in decline across much of its European range. Restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) is increasingly used for such applications; however, RADseq is expensive, and limitations on sample number must be weighed against the benefit of large numbers of markers. This trade‐off has previously been examined using simulation studies; however, empirical comparisons between these markers, especially in a phylogeographic context, are lacking. Here, we compare the results from microsatellites and RADseq for the phylogeography of C. carassius to test whether it is more advantageous to genotype fewer markers (microsatellites) in many samples, or many markers (SNPs) in fewer samples. These data sets, along with data from the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, agree on broad phylogeographic patterns, showing the existence of two previously unidentified C. carassius lineages in Europe: one found throughout northern and central‐eastern European drainages and a second almost exclusively confined to the Danubian catchment. These lineages have been isolated for approximately 2.15 m years and should be considered separate conservation units. RADseq recovered finer population structure and stronger patterns of IBD than microsatellites, despite including only 17.6% of samples (38% of populations and 52% of samples per population). RADseq was also used along with approximate Bayesian computation to show that the postglacial colonization routes of C. carassius differ from the general patterns of freshwater fish in Europe, likely as a result of their distinctive ecology.     

Europe as a bridgehead in the worldwide invasion history of grapevine downy mildew,Plasmopara viticola

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Demographic inferences using short‐read genomic data in an approximate Bayesian computation framework: in silico evaluation of power,biases and proof of concept in Atlantic walrus

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful tool for model‐based inference of demographic histories from large genetic data sets. For most organisms, its implementation has been hampered by the lack of sufficient genetic data. Genotyping‐by‐sequencing (GBS) provides cheap genome‐scale data to fill this gap, but its potential has not fully been exploited. Here, we explored power, precision and biases of a coalescent‐based ABC approach where GBS data were modelled with either a population mutation parameter (θ) or a fixed site (FS) approach, allowing single or several segregating sites per locus. With simulated data ranging from 500 to 50 000 loci, a variety of demographic models could be reliably inferred across a range of timescales and migration scenarios. Posterior estimates were informative with 1000 loci for migration and split time in simple population divergence models. In more complex models, posterior distributions were wide and almost reverted to the uninformative prior even with 50 000 loci. ABC parameter estimates, however, were generally more accurate than an alternative composite‐likelihood method. Bottleneck scenarios proved particularly difficult, and only recent bottlenecks without recovery could be reliably detected and dated. Notably, minor‐allele‐frequency filters – usual practice for GBS data – negatively affected nearly all estimates. With this in mind, we used a combination of FS and θ approaches on empirical GBS data generated from the Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus), collectively providing support for a population split before the last glacial maximum followed by asymmetrical migration and a high Arctic bottleneck. Overall, this study evaluates the potential and limitations of GBS data in an ABC‐coalescence framework and proposes a best‐practice approach.     

Genetic diversity,structure, and demography of Pandanus boninensis (Pandanaceae) with sea drifted seeds,endemic to the Ogasawara Islands of Japan: Comparison between young and old islands

Pandanus boninensis, endemic to the Ogasawara Islands, Japan, is distributed on both the older Bonin and younger Volcano Islands. In this study, we conducted population genetic analyses of P. boninensis on these islands to examine the population diversity and structure across old and young islands, to assess potential differences in population demography with island age, and to collect any evidence of migration between old and young islands. We found that the genetic diversity of expressed sequence tag (EST)–based microsatellite (SSR) markers, the nucleotide diversity of nuclear DNA sequences, and the haplotype diversity of chloroplast DNA on young islands were lower than those on old islands. Clustering analyses of EST‐SSR indicated that populations on old islands were strongly diverged from those on young islands. Approximate Bayesian computation analysis of EST‐SSR suggested that population expansion occurred on old islands while population reduction occurred on young islands. We also found evidence of migration among old islands (mostly from south to north), while it appears that there have been very few migration events between old and young islands. These differences could be due to the fact that young islands tend to be geographically isolated and support smaller populations that began a shorter time ago from limited founders. The P. boninensis populations on the Volcano Islands are interesting from an evolutionary perspective as they constitute a classic example of the early stages of progressive colonization on oceanic islands with small effective population sizes and low genetic diversity.     

The population demography of Betula maximowicziana,a cool‐temperate tree species in Japan,in relation to the last glacial period: its admixture‐like genetic structure is the result of simple population splitting not admixing

Conservation of the local genetic variation and evolutionary integrity of economically and ecologically important trees is a key aspect of studies involving forest genetics, and a population demographic history of the target species provides valuable information for this purpose. Here, the genetic structure of 48 populations of Betula maximowicziana was assessed using 12 expressed sequence tag–simple sequence repeat (EST‐SSR) markers. Genetic diversity was lower in northern populations than southern ones and structure analysis revealed three groups: northern and southern clusters and an admixed group. Eleven more genomic‐SSR loci were added and the demographic history of these three groups was inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The ABC revealed that a simple split scenario was much more likely than isolation with admixture, suggesting that the admixture‐like structure detected in this species was due to ancestral polymorphisms. The ABC analysis suggested that the population growth and divergence of the three groups occurred 96 800 (95% CI, 20 500–599 000) and 28 300 (95% CI, 8700–98 400) years ago, respectively. We need to be aware of several sources of uncertainty in the inference such as assumptions about the generation time, overlapping of generations, confidence intervals of the estimated parameters and the assumed model in the ABC. However, the results of the ABC together with the model‐based maps of reconstructed past species distribution and palaeoecological data suggested that the modern genetic structure of B. maximowicziana originated prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM) and that some populations survived in the northern range even during the LGM.     

Trapped within the city: integrating demography,time since isolation and population‐specific traits to assess the genetic effects of urbanization

Urbanization is a severe form of habitat fragmentation that can cause many species to be locally extirpated and many others to become trapped and isolated within an urban matrix. The role of drift in reducing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation is well recognized in urban populations. However, explicit incorporation and analysis of the demographic and temporal factors promoting drift in urban environments are poorly studied. Here, we genotyped 15 microsatellites in 320 fire salamanders from the historical city of Oviedo (Est. 8th century) to assess the effects of time since isolation, demographic history (historical effective population size; N_e) and patch size on genetic diversity, population structure and contemporary N_e. Our results indicate that urban populations of fire salamanders are highly differentiated, most likely due to the recent N_e declines, as calculated in coalescence analyses, concomitant with the urban development of Oviedo. However, urbanization only caused a small loss of genetic diversity. Regression modelling showed that patch size was positively associated with contemporary N_e, while we found only moderate support for the effects of demographic history when excluding populations with unresolved history. This highlights the interplay between different factors in determining current genetic diversity and structure. Overall, the results of our study on urban populations of fire salamanders provide some of the very first insights into the mechanisms affecting changes in genetic diversity and population differentiation via drift in urban environments, a crucial subject in a world where increasing urbanization is forecasted.     

We are what we eat,plus some per mill: Using stable isotopes to estimate diet composition in Gyps vultures over space and time

1. Dietary studies in birds of prey involve direct observation and examination of food remains at resting and nesting sites. Although these methods accurately identify diet in raptors, they are time‐consuming, resource‐intensive, and associated with biases from the feeding ecology of raptors like Gyps vultures. Our study set out to estimate diet composition in Gyps vultures informed by stable isotopes that provide a good representation of assimilated diet from local systems.
2. We hypothesized that differences in Gyps vulture diet composition is a function of sampling location and that these vultures move between Serengeti National Park and Selous Game Reserve to forage. We also theorized that grazing ungulates are the principal items in Gyps vulture diet.
3. Through combined linear and Bayesian modeling, diet derived from δ¹³C in Gyps vultures consisted of grazing herbivores across sites, with those in Serengeti National Park consuming higher proportions of grazing herbivores (>87%). δ¹³C differences in vulture feather subsets did not indicate shifts in vulture diet and combined with blood δ¹³C, vultures fed largely on grazers for ~159 days before they were sampled. Similarly, δ¹⁵N values indicated Gyps vultures fed largely on herbivores. δ³⁴S ratios separated where vultures fed when the two sites were compared. δ³⁴S variation in vultures across sites resulted from baseline differences in plant δ³⁴S values, though it is not possible to match δ³⁴S to specific locations.
4. Our findings highlight the relevance of repeated sampling that considers tissues with varying isotopic turnover and emerging Bayesian techniques for dietary studies using stable isotopes. Findings also suggested limited vulture movement between the two local systems. However, more sampling coupled with environmental data is required to fully comprehend this observation and its implications to Gyps vulture ecology and conservation.

     

High genomic diversity in the bank vole at the northern apex of a range expansion: The role of multiple colonizations and end‐glacial refugia

The history of repeated northern glacial cycling and southern climatic stability has long dominated explanations for how genetic diversity is distributed within temperate species in Eurasia and North America. However, growing evidence indicates the importance of cryptic refugia for northern colonization dynamics. An important geographic region to assess this is Fennoscandia, where recolonization at the end of the last glaciation was restricted to specific routes and temporal windows. We used genomic data to analyse genetic diversity and colonization history of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) throughout Europe (>800 samples) with Fennoscandia as the northern apex. We inferred that bank voles colonized Fennoscandia multiple times by two different routes; with three separate colonizations via a southern land‐bridge route deriving from a “Carpathian” glacial refugium and one via a north‐eastern route from an “Eastern” glacial refugium near the Ural Mountains. Clustering of genome‐wide SNPs revealed high diversity in Fennoscandia, with eight genomic clusters: three of Carpathian origin and five Eastern. Time estimates revealed that the first of the Carpathian colonizations occurred before the Younger Dryas (YD), meaning that the first colonists survived the YD in Fennoscandia. Results also indicated that introgression between bank and northern red‐backed voles (Myodes rutilus) took place in Fennoscandia just after end‐glacial colonization. Therefore, multiple colonizations from the same and different cryptic refugia, temporal and spatial separations and interspecific introgression have shaped bank vole genetic variability in Fennoscandia. Together, these processes drive high genetic diversity at the apex of the northern expansion in this emerging model species.     

Application of single nucleotide polymorphism markers to chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta: discovery, genotyping and linkage phase resolution

This study describes (1) the application of new methods to the discovery of informative single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers in chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta, (2) a method to resolve the linkage phase of closely linked SNPs and (3) a method to inexpensively genotype them. Finally, it demonstrates that these SNPs provide information that discriminates among O. keta populations from different geographical regions of the northern Pacific Ocean. These informative markers can be used in conjunction with mixed-stock analysis to learn about the spatial and temporal marine distributions of O. keta and the factors that influence the distributions.     

Biogeography of the grasses (Poaceae): a phylogenetic approach to reveal evolutionary history in geographical space and geological time

The grasses (Poaceae) are the fifth most diverse family of angiosperms, including 800 genera and more than 10 000 species. Few phylogenetic studies have tried to investigate palaeo‐biogeographical and palaeo‐ecological scenarios that may have led to present‐day distribution and diversity of grasses at the family level. We produced a dated phylogenetic tree based on combined plastid DNA sequences and a comprehensive sample of Poaceae. Furthermore, we produced an additional tree using a supermatrix of morphological and molecular data that included all 800 grass genera so that ancestral biogeography and ecological habitats could be inferred. We used a likelihood‐based method, which allows the estimation of ancestral polymorphism in both biogeographical and ecological analyses for large data sets. The origin of Poaceae was retrieved as African and shade adapted. The crown node of the BEP + PACCMAD clade was dated at 57 Mya, in the early Eocene. Grasses dispersed to all continents by approximately 60 million years after their Gondwanan origin in the late Cretaceous. PACCMAD taxa adapted to open habitats as early as the late Eocene, a date consistent with recent phytolith fossil data for North America. C₄ photosynthesis first originated in Africa, at least for Chloridoideae in the Eocene at c. 30 Mya. The BEP clade members adapted to open habitats later than PACCMAD members; this was inferred to occur in Eurasia in the Oligocene. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 162 , 543–557.     

Microsatellites for ecologists: a practical guide to using and evaluating microsatellite markers

Recent improvements in genetic analysis and genotyping methods have resulted in a rapid expansion of the power of molecular markers to address ecological questions. Microsatellites have emerged as the most popular and versatile marker type for ecological applications. The rise of commercial services that can isolate microsatellites for new study species and genotype samples at reasonable prices presents ecologists with the unprecedented ability to employ genetic approaches without heavy investment in specialized equipment. Nevertheless, the lack of accessible, synthesized information on the practicalities and pitfalls of using genetic tools impedes ecologists' ability to make informed decisions on using molecular approaches and creates the risk that some will use microsatellites without understanding the steps needed to evaluate the quality of a genetic data set. The first goal of this synthesis is to provide an overview of the strengths and limitations of microsatellite markers and the risks, cost and time requirements of isolating and using microsatellites with the aid of commercial services. The second goal is to encourage the use and consistent reporting of thorough marker screening to ensure high quality data. To that end, we present a multistep screening process to evaluate candidate loci for inclusion in a genetic study that is broadly targeted to both novice and experienced geneticists alike.     

Using neutral cline decay to estimate contemporary dispersal: a generic tool and its application to a major crop pathogen

Dispersal is a key parameter of adaptation, invasion and persistence. Yet standard population genetics inference methods hardly distinguish it from drift and many species cannot be studied by direct mark‐recapture methods. Here, we introduce a method using rates of change in cline shapes for neutral markers to estimate contemporary dispersal. We apply it to the devastating banana pest Mycosphaerella fijiensis, a wind‐dispersed fungus for which a secondary contact zone had previously been detected using landscape genetics tools. By tracking the spatio‐temporal frequency change of 15 microsatellite markers, we find that σ, the standard deviation of parent–offspring dispersal distances, is 1.2 km/generation^1/2. The analysis is further shown robust to a large range of dispersal kernels. We conclude that combining landscape genetics approaches to detect breaks in allelic frequencies with analyses of changes in neutral genetic clines offers a powerful way to obtain ecologically relevant estimates of dispersal in many species.     

Comparing Pool‐seq,Rapture, and GBS genotyping for inferring weak population structure: The American lobster (Homarus americanus) as a case study

Unraveling genetic population structure is challenging in species potentially characterized by large population size and high dispersal rates, often resulting in weak genetic differentiation. Genotyping a large number of samples can improve the detection of subtle genetic structure, but this may substantially increase sequencing cost and downstream bioinformatics computational time. To overcome this challenge, alternative, cost‐effective sequencing approaches, namely Pool‐seq and Rapture, have been developed. We empirically measured the power of resolution and congruence of these two methods in documenting weak population structure in nonmodel species with high gene flow comparatively to a conventional genotyping‐by‐sequencing (GBS) approach. For this, we used the American lobster (Homarus americanus) as a case study. First, we found that GBS, Rapture, and Pool‐seq approaches gave similar allele frequency estimates (i.e., correlation coefficient over 0.90) and all three revealed the same weak pattern of population structure. Yet, Pool‐seq data showed F_ST estimates three to five times higher than GBS and Rapture, while the latter two methods returned similar F_ST estimates, indicating that individual‐based approaches provided more congruent results than Pool‐seq. We conclude that despite higher costs, GBS and Rapture are more convenient approaches to use in the case of species exhibiting very weak differentiation. While both GBS and Rapture approaches provided similar results with regard to estimates of population genetic parameters, GBS remains more cost‐effective in project involving a relatively small numbers of genotyped individuals (e.g., <1,000). Overall, this study illustrates the complexity of estimating genetic differentiation and other summary statistics in complex biological systems characterized by large population size and migration rates.     

Clonal diversity of a lizard malaria parasite, Plasmodium mexicanum, in its vertebrate host, the western fence lizard: role of variation in transmission intensity over time and space

Within the vertebrate host, infections of a malaria parasite (Plasmodium) could include a single genotype of cells (single-clone infections) or two to several genotypes (multiclone infections). Clonal diversity of infection plays an important role in the biology of the parasite, including its life history, virulence, and transmission. We determined the clonal diversity of Plasmodium mexicanum, a lizard malaria parasite at a study region in northern California, using variable microsatellite markers, the first such study for any malaria parasite of lizards or birds (the most common hosts for Plasmodium species). Multiclonal infections are common (50-88% of infections among samples), and measures of genetic diversity for the metapopulation (expected heterozygosity, number of alleles per locus, allele length variation, and effective population size) all indicated a substantial overall genetic diversity. Comparing years with high prevalence (1996-1998 = 25-32% lizards infected), and years with low prevalence (2001-2005 = 6-12%) found fewer alleles in samples taken from the low-prevalence years, but no reduction in overall diversity (H = 0.64-0.90 among loci). In most cases, rare alleles appeared to be lost as prevalence declined. For sites chronically experiencing low transmission intensity (prevalence approximately 1%), overall diversity was also high (H = 0.79-0.91), but there were fewer multiclonal infections. Theory predicts an apparent excess in expected heterozygosity follows a genetic bottleneck. Evidence for such a distortion in genetic diversity was observed after the drop in parasite prevalence under the infinite alleles mutation model but not for the stepwise mutation model. The results are similar to those reported for the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, worldwide, and support the conclusion that malaria parasites maintain high genetic diversity in host populations despite the potential for loss in alleles during the transmission cycle or during periods/locations when transmission intensity is low.