Body mass and extinction risk in Australian marsupials: The ‘Critical Weight Range’ revisited

Australian mammals have suffered an exceptionally high rate of decline and extinction over the last two hundred years. Body mass is linked to extinction risk in Australian mammals, but the nature of this association is controversial. A widely held view is that species of intermediate body mass (between 35 and 5500 g, the ‘critical weight range’, CWR) have declined most severely. However, the existence of the CWR has been disputed. In this paper we clarify the relationship of decline status and body mass in Australian marsupials. We show that the form of this relationship differs for ground‐living versus arboreal species, and for species from low versus high rainfall areas. Among ground‐living species and those from low‐rainfall areas, declines were strongly size‐selective and concentrated on species within the CWR. For the remaining species, decline was only weakly related to body mass with no evidence of heightened risk for species of intermediate size. We conclude that for terrestrial species in low rainfall areas, species within the CWR are most at risk of decline and extinction.     

Early Cenozoic increases in mammal diversity cannot be explained solely by expansion into larger body sizes

A prominent hypothesis in the diversification of placental mammals after the Cretaceous–Palaeogene (K/Pg) boundary suggests that the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs resulted in the ecological release of mammals, which were previously constrained to small body sizes and limited species richness. This ‘dinosaur incumbency hypothesis’ may therefore explain increases in mammalian diversity via expansion into larger body size niches, that were previously occupied by dinosaurs, but does not directly predict increases in other body size classes. To evaluate this, we estimate sampling-standardized diversity patterns of terrestrial North American fossil mammals within body size classes, during the Cretaceous and Palaeogene. We find strong evidence for post-extinction diversity increases in all size classes. Increases in the diversity of small-bodied species (less than 100 g, the common body size class of Cretaceous mammals, and much smaller than the smallest non-avialan dinosaurs (c. 400 g)) were similar to those of larger species. We propose that small-bodied mammals had access to greater energetic resources or were able to partition resources more finely after the K/Pg mass extinction. This is likely to be the result of a combination of widespread niche clearing due to the K/Pg mass extinctions, alongside a suite of biotic and abiotic changes that occurred during the Late Cretaceous and across the K/Pg boundary, such as shifting floral composition, and novel key innovations among eutherian mammals.     

Archosauromorph extinction selectivity during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction

Many traits have been linked to extinction risk among modern vertebrates, including mode of life and body size. However, previous work has indicated there is little evidence that body size, or any other trait, was selective during past mass extinctions. Here, we investigate the impact of the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction on early Archosauromorpha (basal dinosaurs, crocodylomorphs and their relatives) by focusing on body size and other life history traits. We built several new archosauromorph maximum‐likelihood supertrees, incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic relationships. These supertrees were then employed as a framework to test whether extinction had a phylogenetic signal during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction, and whether species with certain traits were more or less likely to go extinct. We find evidence for phylogenetic signal in extinction, in that taxa were more likely to become extinct if a close relative also did. However, there is no correlation between extinction and body size, or any other tested trait. These conclusions add to previous findings that body size, and other traits, were not subject to selection during mass extinctions in closely‐related clades, although the phylogenetic signal in extinction indicates that selection may have acted on traits not investigated here.     

The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.     

Predation selectively culls medium-sized species from island mammal faunas

Globally, elevated extinction risk in mammals is strongly associated with large body size. However, in regions where introduced predators exert strong top-down pressure on mammal populations, the selectivity of extinctions may be skewed towards species of intermediate body size, leading to a hump-shaped relationship between size and extinction risk. The existence of this kind of extinction pattern, and its link to predation, has been contentious and difficult to demonstrate. Here, we test the hypothesis of a hump-shaped body size–extinction relationship, using a database of 927 island mammal populations. We show that the size-selectivity of extinctions on many islands has exceeded that expected under null models. On islands with introduced predators, extinctions are biased towards intermediate body sizes, but this bias does not occur on islands without predators. Hence, on islands with a large-bodied mammal fauna, predators are selectively culling species from the lower end of the size distribution, and on islands with a small-bodied fauna they are culling species from the upper end. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to use predictable generalizations about extinction patterns, such as a positive body size–extinction risk association, to anticipate future species declines and plan conservation strategies accordingly.     

Primate extinction risk and historical patterns of speciation and extinction in relation to body mass

Body mass is thought to influence diversification rates, but previous studies have produced ambiguous results. We investigated patterns of diversification across 100 trees obtained from a new Bayesian inference of primate phylogeny that sampled trees in proportion to their posterior probabilities. First, we used simulations to assess the validity of previous studies that used linear models to investigate the links between IUCN Red List status and body mass. These analyses support the use of linear models for ordinal ranked data on threat status, and phylogenetic generalized linear models revealed a significant positive correlation between current extinction risk and body mass across our tree block. We then investigated historical patterns of speciation and extinction rates using a recently developed maximum-likelihood method. Specifically, we predicted that body mass correlates positively with extinction rate because larger bodied organisms reproduce more slowly, and body mass correlates negatively with speciation rate because smaller bodied organisms are better able to partition niche space. We failed to find evidence that extinction rates covary with body mass across primate phylogeny. Similarly, the speciation rate was generally unrelated to body mass, except in some tests that indicated an increase in the speciation rate with increasing body mass. Importantly, we discovered that our data violated a key assumption of sample randomness with respect to body mass. After correcting for this bias, we found no association between diversification rates and mass.     

A phylogenetic approach to total evaporative water loss in mammals

Abstract Maintaining appropriate water balance is a constant challenge for terrestrial mammals, and this problem can be exacerbated in desiccating environments. It has been proposed that natural selection has provided desert-dwelling mammals physiological mechanisms to reduce rates of total evaporative water loss. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between total evaporative water loss and body mass in mammals by using a recent phylogenetic hypothesis. We compared total evaporative water loss in 80 species of arid-zone mammals to that in 56 species that inhabit mesic regions, ranging in size from 4 g to 3,500 kg, to test the hypothesis that mammals from arid environments have lower rates of total evaporative water loss than mammals from mesic environments once phylogeny is taken into account. We found that arid species had lower rates of total evaporative water loss than mesic species when using a dichotomous variable to describe habitat (arid or mesic). We also found that total evaporative water loss was negatively correlated with the average maximum and minimum environmental temperature as well as the maximum vapor pressure deficit of the environment. Annual precipitation and the variable Q (a measure of habitat aridity) were positively correlated with total evaporative water loss. These results support the hypothesis that desert-dwelling mammals have lower rates of total evaporative water loss than mesic species after controlling for body mass and evolutionary relatedness regardless of whether categorical or continuous variables are used to describe habitat.     

Arid Recovery – A comparison of reptile and small mammal populations inside and outside a large rabbit,cat and fox‐proof exclosure in arid South Australia

Australian arid zone mammal species within the Critical Weight Range (CWR) of 35 g–5.5 kg have suffered disproportionately in the global epidemic of contemporary faunal extinctions. CWR extinctions have been attributed largely to the effects of introduced or invasive mammals; however, the impact of these threatening processes on smaller mammals and reptiles is less clear. The change in small mammal and reptile assemblages after the removal of rabbits, cats and foxes was studied over a 6‐year period in a landscape‐scale exclosure in the Australian arid zone. Rodents, particularly Notomys alexis and Pseudomys bolami, increased to 15 times higher inside the feral‐proof Arid Recovery Reserve compared with outside sites, where rabbits, cats and foxes were still present. Predation by cats was thought to exert the greatest influence on rodent numbers owing to the maintenance of the disparity in rodent responses through dry years and the differences in dietary preferences between rabbits and P. bolami. The presence of introduced Mus domesticus or medium‐sized re‐introduced mammal species did not significantly affect resident small mammal or reptile abundance. Abundance of most dasyurids and small lizards did not change significantly after the removal of feral animals although reductions in gecko populations inside the reserve may be attributable to second order trophic interactions or subtle changes in vegetation structure and cover. This study suggests that populations of rodent species in northern South Australia below the CWR may also be significantly affected by introduced cats, foxes and/or rabbits and that a taxa specific model of Australian mammal decline may be more accurate than one based on body weight.     

A global assessment of Bergmann's rule in mammals and birds

Bergmann's rule states that endotherms have a large body size in high latitudes and cold climates. However, previous empirical studies have reported mixed evidence on the relationships between body size and latitude, raising the question of why some clades of endotherms follow Bergmann's rule, whereas others do not. Here, we synthesized the interspecific relationships between body size and latitude among 16,187 endothermic species (5422 mammals and 10,765 birds) using Bayesian phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models to examine the strength and magnitude of Bergmann's rule. We further assessed the effect of biological and ecological factors (i.e., body mass categories, dietary guild, winter activity, habitat openness, and climate zone) on the variations in the body mass–latitude relationships by adding an interaction term in the models. Our results revealed a generally weak but significant adherence to Bergmann's rule among all endotherms at the global scale. Despite taxonomic variation in the strength of Bergmann's rule, the body mass of species within most animal orders showed an increasing trend toward high latitudes. Generally, large-bodied, temperate species, non-hibernating mammals, and migratory and open-habitat birds tend to conform to Bergmann's rule more than their relatives do. Our results suggest that whether Bergmann's rule applies to a particular taxon is mediated by not only geographic and biological features, but also potential alternate strategies that species might have for thermoregulation. Future studies could explore the potential of integrating comprehensive trait data into phylogenetic comparative analysis to re-assess the classic ecogeographic rules on a global scale.     

Not all predators are equal: a continent‐scale analysis of the effects of predator control on Australian mammals

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Of mice and mammoths: evaluations of causal explanations for body size evolution in insular mammals

Aim We investigated the hypothesis that the insular body size of mammals results from selective forces whose influence varies with characteristics of the focal islands and the focal species, and with interactions among species (ecological displacement and release). Location Islands world‐wide. Methods We assembled data on the geographic characteristics (area, isolation, maximum elevation, latitude) and climate (annual averages and seasonality of temperature and precipitation) of islands, and on the ecological and morphological characteristics of focal species (number of mammalian competitors and predators, diet, body size of mainland reference populations) that were most relevant to our hypothesis (385 insular populations from 98 species of extant, non‐volant mammals across 248 islands). We used regression tree analyses to examine the hypothesized contextual importance of these factors in explaining variation in the insular body size of mammals. Results The results of regression tree analyses were consistent with predictions based on hypotheses of ecological release (more pronounced changes in body size on islands lacking mammalian competitors or predators), immigrant selection (more pronounced gigantism in small species inhabiting more isolated islands), thermoregulation and endurance during periods of climatic or environmental stress (more pronounced gigantism of small mammals on islands of higher latitudes or on those with colder and more seasonal climates), and resource subsidies (larger body size for mammals that utilize aquatic prey). The results, however, were not consistent with a prediction based on resource limitation and island area; that is, the insular body size of large mammals was not positively correlated with island area. Main conclusions These results support the hypothesis that the body size evolution of insular mammals is influenced by a combination of selective forces whose relative importance and nature of influence are contextual. While there may exist a theoretical optimal body size for mammals in general, the optimum for a particular insular population varies in a predictable manner with characteristics of the islands and the species, and with interactions among species. This study did, however, produce some unanticipated results that merit further study – patterns associated with Bergmann’s rule are amplified on islands, and the body size of small mammals appears to peak at intermediate and not maximum values of latitude and island isolation.     

Geographical variation in predictors of mammalian extinction risk: big is bad, but only in the tropics

Whereas previous studies have investigated correlates of extinction risk either at global or regional scales, our study explicitly models regional effects of anthropogenic threats and biological traits across the globe. Using phylogenetic comparative methods with a newly-updated supertree of 5020 extant mammals, we investigate the impact of species traits on extinction risk within each WWF ecoregion. Our analyses reveal strong geographical variation in the influence of traits on risk: notably, larger species are at higher risk only in tropical regions. We then relate these patterns to current and recent-historical human impacts across ecoregions using spatial modelling. The body–mass results apparently reflect historical declines of large species outside the tropics due to large-scale land conversion. Narrow-ranged and rare species tend to be at high risk in areas of high current human impacts. The interactions we describe between biological traits and anthropogenic threats increase understanding of the processes determining extinction risk.     

Relationships between body size and geographical range size among Australian mammals: has human impact distorted macroecological patterns?

Extinction and artificial reduction in the size of geographical ranges of many species have occurred extensively across the globe because of human activities. In particular, Australian mammals have suffered heavily in the last two hundred years, with the highest number of reported cases of mammal extinctions anywhere. In the present study, we investigated the extent to which human impact has affected contemporary macroecological patterns in Australian terrestrial mammals. After examining patterns relating to body size and range size among the contemporary mammal fauna, we removed the effects of the last two hundred years of human impact by exploring patterns in the pre‐European assemblage. This permitted us to determine whether contemporary macroecological patterns are distortions of pre‐European patterns. In contrast to the expected pattern of a significant positive relationship between body size and range size, our results showed no significant association for the complete fauna in both cross‐species and phylogenetic analyses, even when data were corrected for species extinctions and range reductions. Analyses within families and among species with the same dietary strategy revealed three significant positive relationships (Macropodidae, Peramelidae, and herbivores) and one significant negative relationship (insectivores) within the contemporary assemblage that disappeared when the pre‐European assemblage was analysed. A positive relationship also emerged in the pre‐European assemblage for the Vombatidae that was not apparent in the contemporary fauna. Thus, correcting for human impact revealed important distortions among contemporary macroecological relationships that have been brought about by human‐induced range reduction and extinction. These findings not only provide further evidence that the Australian continent presents a unique and valuable opportunity with which to test the generality of macroecological patterns, but they also have important ramifications for the analysis and interpretation of contemporary macroecological datasets.     

Body length of bony fishes was not a selective factor during the biggest mass extinction of all time

The Permo‐Triassic mass extinction devastated life on land and in the sea, but it is not clear why some species survived and others went extinct. One explanation is that lineage loss during mass extinctions is a random process in which luck determines which species survive. Alternatively, a phylogenetic signal in extinction may indicate a selection process operating on phenotypic traits. Large body size has often emerged as an extinction risk factor in studies of modern extinction risk, but this is not so commonly the case for mass extinctions in deep time. Here, we explore the evolution of non‐teleostean Actinopterygii (bony fishes) from the Devonian to the present day, and we concentrate on the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction. We apply a variety of time‐scaling metrics to date the phylogeny, and show that diversity peaked in the latest Permian and declined severely during the Early Triassic. In line with previous evidence, we find the phylogenetic signal of extinction increases across the mass extinction boundary: extinction of species in the earliest Triassic is more clustered across phylogeny compared to the more randomly distributed extinction signal in the late Permian. However, body length plays no role in differential survival or extinction of taxa across the boundary. In the case of fishes, size did not determine which species survived and which went extinct, but phylogenetic signal indicates that the mass extinction was not a random field of bullets.     

Energetic determinants of abundance in winter landbird communities

There is increasing evidence that individual energetics constrain macroecological patterns. Here we model total abundance within winter landbird communities as a function of (1) energy supply, as measured by ecosystem net primary productivity, and (2) energy use of individuals, as influenced by body mass and ambient temperature. Using data from the North American Christmas Bird Count, we find that total abundance increases with productivity to the 0.61 power, and decreases with body mass and environmental temperature as predicted by metabolic theory when individuals are below their thermoneutral zone. We note a negative relationship between ambient temperature and average body mass, and suggest that this community‐level pattern, reminiscent of Bergmann's Rule, is related to a tendency for small species to be less‐abundant or absent from cold locations. Results from this study emphasize the importance of individual‐level metabolism for understanding large‐scale ecological patterns.     

Mass extinctions do not explain skew in interspecific body size distributions

In several higher animal taxa, such as mammals and birds, the distribution of species body sizes is heavily skewed towards small size. Previous studies have suggested that small‐bodied organisms are less prone to extinction than large‐bodied species. If small body size is favourable during mass extinction events, a post mass extinction excess of small‐bodied species may proliferate and maintain skewed body size distributions sometime after. Here, we modelled mass extinctions and found that even unrealistically strong body mass selection has little effect on the skew of interspecific body size distributions. Moreover, selection against large body size may, counter intuitively, skew size distributions towards large body size. In any case, subsequent evolutionary diversification rapidly erases these rather small effects mass extinctions may have on size distributions. Next, we used body masses of extant species and phylogenetic methods to investigate possible changes in body size distributions across the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K‐Pg) mass extinction. Body size distributions of extant clades that originated during the Cretaceous are on average more skewed than their subclades that originated during the Paleogene, but the difference is only minor in mammals, and in birds, it can be explained by a positive relationship between species richness and skewness that is also present in clades that originated after the transition. Hence, we cannot infer from extant species whether the K‐Pg mass extinctions were size‐selective, but they are not the reason why most extant bird and mammal species are small‐bodied.     

Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge

Each year, two or three species that had been considered to be extinct are rediscovered. Uncertainty about whether or not a species is extinct is common, because rare and highly threatened species are difficult to detect. Biological traits such as body size and range size are expected to be associated with extinction. However, these traits, together with the intensity of search effort, might influence the probability of detection and extinction differently. This makes statistical analysis of extinction and rediscovery challenging. Here, we use a variant of survival analysis known as cure rate modelling to differentiate factors that influence rediscovery from those that influence extinction. We analyse a global data set of 99 mammals that have been categorized as extinct or possibly extinct. We estimate the probability that each of these mammals is still extant and thus estimate the proportion of missing (presumed extinct) mammals that are incorrectly assigned extinction. We find that body mass and population density are predictors of extinction, and body mass and search effort predict rediscovery. In mammals, extinction rate increases with body mass and population density, and these traits act synergistically to greatly elevate extinction rate in large species that also occurred in formerly dense populations. However, when they remain extant, larger‐bodied missing species are rediscovered sooner than smaller species. Greater search effort increases the probability of rediscovery in larger species of missing mammals, but has a minimal effect on small species, which take longer to be rediscovered, if extant. By separating the effects of species characteristics on extinction and detection, and using models with the assumption that a proportion of missing species will never be rediscovered, our new approach provides estimates of extinction probability in species with few observation records and scant ecological information.     

Heterogeneity, speciation/extinction history and climate: explaining regional plant diversity patterns in the Cape Floristic Region

This paper investigates the role of heterogeneity and speciation/extinction history in explaining variation in regional scale (c. 0.1–3000 km²) plant diversity in the Cape Floristic Region of south‐western Africa, a species‐ and endemic‐rich biogeographical region. We used species‐area analysis and analysis of covariance to investigate geographical (east vs. west) and topographic (lowland vs. montane) patterns of diversity. We used community diversity as a surrogate for biological heterogeneity, and the diversity of naturally rare species in quarter degree squares as an indicator of differences in speciation/extinction histories across the study region. We then used standard statistical methods to analyse geographical and topographic patterns of these two measures. There was a clear geographical diversity pattern (richer in the west), while a topographic pattern (richer in mountains) was evident only in the west. The geographical boundary coincided with a transition from the reliable winter‐rainfall zone (west) to the less reliable non‐seasonal rainfall zone (east). Community diversity, or biological heterogeneity, showed no significant variation in relation to geography and topography. Diversity patterns of rare species mirrored the diversity pattern for all species. We hypothesize that regional diversity patterns are the product of different speciation and extinction histories, leading to different steady‐state diversities. Greater Pleistocene climatic stability in the west would have resulted in higher rates of speciation and lower rates of extinction than in the east, where for the most, Pleistocene climates would not have favoured Cape lineages. A more parsimonious hypothesis is that the more predictable seasonal rainfall of the west would have favoured non‐sprouting plants and that this, in turn, resulted in higher speciation and lower extinction rates. Both hypotheses are consistent with the higher incidence of rare species in the west, and higher levels of beta and gamma diversity there, associated with the turnover of species along environmental and geographical gradients, respectively. These rare species do not contribute to community patterns; hence, biological heterogeneity is uniform across the region. The weak topography pattern of diversity in the west arises from higher speciation rates and lower extinction rates in the topographically complex mountains, rather than from the influence of environmental heterogeneity on diversity.     

Introduced cats Felis catus eating a continental fauna: inventory and traits of Australian mammal species killed

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Larger brain size indirectly increases vulnerability to extinction in mammals

Although previous studies have addressed the question of why large brains evolved, we have limited understanding of potential beneficial or detrimental effects of enlarged brain size in the face of current threats. Using novel phylogenetic path analysis, we evaluated how brain size directly and indirectly, via its effects on life history and ecology, influences vulnerability to extinction across 474 mammalian species. We found that larger brains, controlling for body size, indirectly increase vulnerability to extinction by extending the gestation period, increasing weaning age, and limiting litter sizes. However, we found no evidence of direct, beneficial, or detrimental effects of brain size on vulnerability to extinction, even when we explicitly considered the different types of threats that lead to vulnerability. Order‐specific analyses revealed qualitatively similar patterns for Carnivora and Artiodactyla. Interestingly, for Primates, we found that larger brain size was directly (and indirectly) associated with increased vulnerability to extinction. Our results indicate that under current conditions, the constraints on life history imposed by large brains outweigh the potential benefits, undermining the resilience of the studied mammals. Contrary to the selective forces that have favored increased brain size throughout evolutionary history, at present, larger brains have become a burden for mammals.