Tracking climate change in a dispersal-limited species: reduced spatial and genetic connectivity in a montane salamander

Tropical montane taxa are often locally adapted to very specific climatic conditions, contributing to their lower dispersal potential across complex landscapes. Climate and landscape features in montane regions affect population genetic structure in predictable ways, yet few empirical studies quantify the effects of both factors in shaping genetic structure of montane-adapted taxa. Here, we considered temporal and spatial variability in climate to explain contemporary genetic differentiation between populations of the montane salamander, Pseudoeurycea leprosa. Specifically, we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) and measured spatial connectivity and gene flow (using both mtDNA and microsatellite markers) across extant populations of P. leprosa in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TVB). Our results indicate significant spatial and genetic isolation among populations, but we cannot distinguish between isolation by distance over time or current landscape barriers as mechanisms shaping population genetic divergences. Combining ecological niche modelling, spatial connectivity analyses, and historical and contemporary genetic signatures from different classes of genetic markers allows for inference of historical evolutionary processes and predictions of the impacts future climate change will have on the genetic diversity of montane taxa with low dispersal rates. Pseudoeurycea leprosa is one montane species among many endemic to this region and thus is a case study for the continued persistence of spatially and genetically isolated populations in the highly biodiverse TVB of central Mexico.     

Isolation by instability: Historical climate change shapes population structure and genomic divergence of treefrogs in the Neotropical Cerrado savanna

Although the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on the diversification of the tropical biota was once dismissed, increasing evidence suggests that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations greatly affected the distribution and population divergence of tropical organisms. Landscape genomic analyses coupled with paleoclimatic distribution models provide a powerful way to understand the consequences of past climate changes on the present‐day tropical biota. Using genome‐wide SNP data and mitochondrial DNA, combined with projections of the species distribution across the late Quaternary until the present, we evaluate the effect of paleoclimatic shifts on the genetic structure and population differentiation of Hypsiboas lundii, a treefrog endemic to the South American Cerrado savanna. Our results show a recent and strong genetic divergence in H. lundii across the Cerrado landscape, yielding four genetic clusters that do not seem congruent with any current physical barrier to gene flow. Isolation by distance (IBD) explains some of the population differentiation, but we also find strong support for past climate changes promoting range shifts and structuring populations even in the presence of IBD. Post‐Pleistocene population persistence in four main areas of historical stable climate in the Cerrado seems to have played a major role establishing the present genetic structure of this treefrog. This pattern is consistent with a model of reduced gene flow in areas with high climatic instability promoting isolation of populations, defined here as “isolation by instability,” highlighting the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations structuring populations in tropical savannas.     

Patterns of speciation are similar across mountainous and lowland regions for a Neotropical plant radiation (Costaceae: Costus)

High species richness and endemism in tropical mountains are recognized as major contributors to the latitudinal diversity gradient. The processes underlying mountain speciation, however, are largely untested. The prevalence of steep ecogeographic gradients and the geographic isolation of populations by topographic features are predicted to promote speciation in mountains. We evaluate these processes in a species-rich Neotropical genus of understory herbs that range from the lowlands to montane forests and have higher species richness in topographically complex regions. We ask whether climatic niche divergence, geographic isolation, and pollination shifts differ between mountain-influenced and lowland Amazonian sister pairs inferred from a 756-gene phylogeny. Neotropical Costus ancestors diverged in Central America during a period of mountain formation in the last 3 million years with later colonization of Amazonia. Although climatic divergence, geographic isolation, and pollination shifts are prevalent in general, these factors do not differ between mountain-influenced and Amazonian sister pairs. Despite higher climatic niche and species diversity in the mountains, speciation modes in Costus appear similar across regions. Thus, greater species richness in tropical mountains may reflect differences in colonization history, diversification rates, or the prevalence of rapidly evolving plant life forms, rather than differences in speciation mode.     

Interglacial genetic diversification of Moussonia deppeana (Gesneriaceae), a hummingbird‐pollinated,cloud forest shrub in northern Mesoamerica

Recent empirical work on cloud forest‐adapted species supports the role of both old divergences across major geographical areas and more recent divergences attributed to Pleistocene climate changes. The shrub Moussonia deppeana is distributed in northern Mesoamerica, with geographically disjunct populations. Based on sampling throughout the species range and employing plastid and nuclear markers, we (i) test whether the fragmented distribution is correlated with main evolutionary lineages, (ii) reconstruct its phylogeographical history to infer the history of cloud forest in northern Mesoamerica and (iii) evaluate a set of refugia/vicariance scenarios for the region and demographic patterns of the populations whose ranges expanded and tracked cloud forest conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum. We found a deep evolutionary split in M. deppeana about 6–3 Ma, which could be consistent with a Pliocene divergence. Comparison of variation in plastid and nuclear markers revealed several lineages mostly congruent with their isolated geographical distribution and restricted gene flow among groups. Results of species distribution modelling and coalescent simulations fit a model of multiple refugia diverging during interglacial cycles. The demographic history of M. deppeana is not consistent with an expanding–contracting cloud forest archipelago model during the Last Glacial Maximum. Instead, our data suggest that populations persisted across the geographical range throughout the glacial cycles, and experienced isolation and divergence during interglacial periods.     

Population genomic evidence for multiple Pliocene refugia in a montane‐restricted harvestman (Arachnida,Opiliones, Sclerobunus robustus) from the southwestern United States

The integration of ecological niche modelling into phylogeographic analyses has allowed for the identification and testing of potential refugia under a hypothesis‐based framework, where the expected patterns of higher genetic diversity in refugial populations and evidence of range expansion of nonrefugial populations are corroborated with empirical data. In this study, we focus on a montane‐restricted cryophilic harvestman, Sclerobunus robustus, distributed throughout the heterogeneous Southern Rocky Mountains and Intermontane Plateau of southwestern North America. We identified hypothetical refugia using ecological niche models (ENMs) across three time periods, corroborated these refugia with population genetic methods using double‐digest RAD‐seq data and conducted population‐level phylogenetic and divergence dating analyses. ENMs identify two large temporally persistent regions in the mid‐latitude highlands. Genetic patterns support these two hypothesized refugia with higher genetic diversity within refugial populations and evidence for range expansion in populations found outside hypothesized refugia. Phylogenetic analyses identify five to six genetically divergent, geographically cohesive clades of S. robustus. Divergence dating analyses suggest that these separate refugia date to the Pliocene and that divergence between clades pre‐dates the late Pleistocene glacial cycles, while diversification within clades was likely driven by these cycles. Population genetic analyses reveal effects of both isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE), with IBD more important in the continuous mountainous portion of the distribution, while IBE was stronger in the populations inhabiting the isolated sky islands of the south. Using model‐based coalescent approaches, we find support for postdivergence migration between clades from separate refugia.     

Genomic signatures of rapid adaptive divergence in a tropical montane species

Mountain regions contain extraordinary biodiversity. The environmental heterogeneity and glacial cycles often accelerate speciation and adaptation of montane species, but how these processes influence the genomic differentiation of these species is largely unknown. Using a novel chromosome-level genome and population genomic comparisons, we study allopatric divergence and selection in an iconic bird living in a tropical mountain region in New Guinea, Archbold''s bowerbird (Amblyornis papuensis). Our results show that the two populations inhabiting the eastern and western Central Range became isolated ca 11 800 years ago, probably because the suitable habitats for this cold-tolerating bird decreased when the climate got warmer. Our genomic scans detect that genes in highly divergent genomic regions are over-represented in developmental processes, which is probably associated with the observed differences in body size between the populations. Overall, our results suggest that environmental differences between the eastern and western Central Range probably drive adaptive divergence between them.     

Climatic zonation drives latitudinal variation in speciation mechanisms

Many groups of organisms show greater species richness in the tropics than in the temperate zone, particularly in tropical montane regions. Forty years ago, Janzen suggested that more limited temperature seasonality in the tropics leads to greater climatic zonation and more climatic barriers to organismal dispersal along elevational gradients in the tropics relative to temperate regions. These factors could lead to differences in how species arise in tropical versus temperate regions and possibly contribute to greater tropical diversity. However, no studies have compared the relationships among climate, elevational distribution and speciation in a group inhabiting both tropical and temperate regions. Here, we compare elevational and climatic divergence among 30 sister-species pairs (14 tropical, 16 temperate) within a single family of salamanders (Plethodontidae) that reaches its greatest species richness in montane Mesoamerica. In support of Janzen's hypothesis, we find that sister species are more elevationally and climatically divergent in the tropics than in the temperate zone. This pattern seemingly reflects regional variation in the role of climate in speciation, with niche conservatism predominating in the temperate zone and niche divergence in the tropics. Our study demonstrates how latitudinal differences in elevational climatic zonation may increase opportunities for geographical isolation, speciation and the associated build-up of species diversity in the tropics relative to the temperate zone.     

Genetic architecture and phenotypic plasticity of thermally-regulated traits in an eruptive species, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Dendroctonus ponderosae</Emphasis>

Phenotypic plasticity in thermally-regulated traits enables close tracking of changing environmental conditions, and can thereby enhance the potential for rapid population increase, a hallmark of outbreak insect species. In a changing climate, exposure to conditions that exceed the capacity of existing phenotypic plasticity may occur. Combining information on genetic architecture and trait plasticity among populations that are distributed along a latitudinal cline can provide insight into how thermally-regulated traits evolve in divergent environments and the potential for adaptation. Dendroctonus ponderosae feed on Pinus species in diverse climatic regimes throughout western North America, and show eruptive population dynamics. We describe geographical patterns of plasticity in D. ponderosae development time and adult size by examining reaction norms of populations from multiple latitudes. The relative influence of additive and non-additive genetic effects on population differences in the two phenotypic traits at a single temperature is quantified using line-cross experiments and joint-scaling tests. We found significant genetic and phenotypic variation among D. ponderosae populations. Simple additive genetic variance was not the primary source of the observed variation, and dominance and epistasis contributed greatly to the genetic divergence of the two thermally-regulated traits. Hybrid breakdown was also observed in F₂ hybrid crosses between northern and southern populations, further indication of substantial genetic differences among clinal populations and potential reproductive isolation within D. ponderosae. Although it is unclear what maintains variation in the life-history traits, observed plasticity in thermally-regulated traits that are directly linked to rapid numerical change may contribute to the outbreak nature of D. ponderosae, particularly in a changing climate.     

Climate change,extinction, and Sky Island biogeography in a montane lizard

Around the world, many species are confined to “Sky Islands,” with different populations in isolated patches of montane habitat. How does this pattern arise? One scenario is that montane species were widespread in lowlands when climates were cooler, and were isolated by local extinction caused by warming conditions. This scenario implies that many montane species may be highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Here, we test this scenario in a montane lizard (Sceloporus jarrovii) from the Madrean Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona. We combined data from field surveys, climate, population genomics, and physiology. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that this species' current distribution is explained by local extinction caused by past climate change. However, our results for this species differ from simple expectations in several ways: (a) their absence at lower elevations is related to warm winter temperatures, not hot summer temperatures; (b) they appear to exclude a low‐elevation congener from higher elevations, not the converse; (c) they are apparently absent from many climatically suitable but low mountain ranges, seemingly “pushed off the top” by climates even warmer than those today; (d) despite the potential for dispersal among ranges during recent glacial periods (~18,000 years ago), populations in different ranges diverged ~4.5–0.5 million years ago and remained largely distinct; and (e) body temperatures are inversely related to climatic temperatures among sites. These results may have implications for many other Sky Island systems. More broadly, we suggest that Sky Island species may be relevant for predicting responses to future warming.     

Phylogeography of Silver Pheasant (Lophura nycthemera L.) across China: aggregate effects of refugia,introgression and riverine barriers

The role of Pleistocene glacial cycles in forming the contemporary genetic structure of organisms has been well studied in China with a particular focus on the Tibetan Plateau. However, China has a complex topography and diversity of local climates, and how glacial cycles may have shaped the subtropical and tropical biota of the region remains mostly unaddressed. To investigate the factors that affected the phylogeography and population history of a widely distributed and nondeciduous forest species, we analysed morphological characters, mitochondrial DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellite loci in the Silver Pheasant (Lophura nycthemera). In a pattern generally consistent with phenotypic clusters, but not nominal subspecies, deeply divergent mitochondrial lineages restricted to different geographic regions were detected. Coalescent simulations indicated that the time of main divergence events corresponded to major glacial periods in the Pleistocene and gene flow was only partially lowered by drainage barriers between some populations. Intraspecific cytonuclear discordance was revealed in mitochondrial lineages from Hainan Island and the Sichuan Basin with evidence of nuclear gene flow from neighbouring populations into the latter. Unexpectedly, hybridization was revealed in Yingjiang between the Silver Pheasant and Kalij Pheasant (Lophura leucomelanos) with wide genetic introgression at both the mtDNA and nuclear levels. Our results highlight a novel phylogeographic pattern in a subtropical area generated from the combined effects of climate oscillation, partial drainage barriers and interspecific hybridization. Cytonuclear discordance combined with morphological differentiation implies that complex historical factors shaped the divergence process in this biodiversity hot spot area of southern China.     

Living on the edge: the role of geography and environment in structuring genetic variation in the southernmost populations of a tropical oak

Understanding the factors determining genetic diversity and structure in peripheral populations is a long‐standing goal of evolutionary biogeography, yet little empirical information is available for tropical species. In this study, we combine information from nuclear microsatellite markers and niche modelling to analyse the factors structuring genetic variation across the southernmost populations of the tropical oak Quercus segoviensis. First, we tested the hypothesis that genetic variability decreases with population isolation and increases with local habitat suitability and stability since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Second, we employed a recently developed multiple matrix regression with randomisation (MMRR) approach to study the factors associated with genetic divergence among the studied populations and test the relative contribution of environmental and geographic isolation to contemporary patterns of genetic differentiation. We found that genetic diversity was negatively correlated with average genetic differentiation with other populations, indicating that isolation and limited gene flow have contributed to erode genetic variability in some populations. Considering the relatively small size of the study area (<120 km), analyses of genetic structure indicate a remarkable inter‐population genetic differentiation. Environmental dissimilarity and differences in current and past climate niche suitability and their additive effects were not associated with genetic differentiation after controlling for geographic distance, indicating that local climate does not contribute to explain spatial patterns of genetic structure. Overall, our data indicate that geographic isolation, but not current or past climate, is the main factor determining contemporary patterns of genetic diversity and structure within the southernmost peripheral populations of this tropical oak.     

Aboveground biomass and soil nutrient pools of a Scalesia pedunculata montane forest on Santa Cruz, Galápagos

We estimated the live aboveground biomass (AGB) and soil nutrient pools of the Scalesia pedunculata monodominant tropical montane forest at 600 m above sea level on Santa Cruz, Galápagos, an isolated oceanic island. The estimated AGB was 60.4 Mg ha^–1, which was considerably lower than that of other montane forests of similar climates elsewhere. Nutrient pools were ample for inorganic N, soluble P, and exchangeable cations. We suggest that the low AGB, in spite of the ample nutrients, is related to the absence of tall-statured climax species, that have high demands for nutrients (particularly N) to fix C, due to the isolation.     

Patterns of morphological and ecological similarities of small-eared shrews (Soricidae,Cryptotis) in tropical montane cloud forests from Mesoamerica

It has been proposed that high morphological similarity between closely related species of small-eared shrews resulted from a recent divergence and intermittent population connectivity, presumably due to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and associated changes in forest habitat distribution. Here we examined the morphological variation of two sister species of small-eared shrews inhabiting cloud forests from Mexico, Cryptotis obscurus and C. mexicanus. We then used ecological niche modelling to provide compelling evidence for current environmental barriers for population connectivity, and for detecting divergent ecological niches between candidate species. Our results indicated that the species boundaries in this clade should be subject to change. High morphological similarity suggested that populations of C. obscurus and C. mexicanus located west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a major geographic barrier for montane species, are conspecific. Niche divergence between these two putative species was not supported indicating niche conservatism across the evolutionary history of these small-eared shrews. In addition, several barriers seem to play a main role for current lineage divergence between populations within this clade. The population located east of the Isthmus, previously referred to C. mexicanus, might prove to represent a new species based on morphological distinction and current geographic isolation. We have highlighted that estimating species’ potential distributions provides insights to evaluating the effect of geographic barriers on lineage divergence and making stronger inferences when delimiting species.     

Regional Differences in Seasonal Timing of Rainfall Discriminate between Genetically Distinct East African Giraffe Taxa

Masai (Giraffa tippelskirchi), Reticulated (G. reticulata) and Rothschild''s (G. camelopardalis) giraffe lineages in East Africa are morphologically and genetically distinct, yet in Kenya their ranges abut. This raises the question of how divergence is maintained among populations of a large mammal capable of long-distance travel, and which readily hybridize in zoos. Here we test four hypotheses concerning the maintenance of the phylogeographic boundaries among the three taxa: 1) isolation-by-distance; 2) physical barriers to dispersal; 3) general habitat differences resulting in habitat segregation; or 4) regional differences in the seasonal timing of rainfall, and resultant timing of browse availability. We used satellite remotely sensed and climate data to characterize the environment at the locations of genotyped giraffes. Canonical variate analysis, random forest algorithms, and generalized dissimilarity modelling were employed in a landscape genetics framework to identify the predictor variables that best explained giraffes'' genetic divergence. We found that regional differences in the timing of precipitation, and resulting green-up associated with the abundance of browse, effectively discriminate between taxa. Local habitat conditions, topographic and human-induced barriers, and geographic distance did not aid in discriminating among lineages. Our results suggest that selection associated with regional timing of events in the annual climatic cycle may help maintain genetic and phenotypic divergence in giraffes. We discuss potential mechanisms of maintaining divergence, and suggest that synchronization of reproduction with seasonal rainfall cycles that are geographically distinct may contribute to reproductive isolation. Coordination of weaning with green-up cycles could minimize the costs of lactation and predation on the young. Our findings are consistent with theory and empirical results demonstrating the efficacy of seasonal or phenologically dictated selection pressures in contributing to the reproductive isolation of parapatric populations.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

Distinct subspecies or phenotypic plasticity? Genetic and morphological differentiation of mountain honey bees in East Africa

Identifying the forces shaping intraspecific phenotypic and genotypic divergence are of key importance in evolutionary biology. Phenotypic divergence may result from local adaptation or, especially in species with strong gene flow, from pronounced phenotypic plasticity. Here, we examine morphological and genetic divergence among populations of the western honey bee Apis mellifera in the topographically heterogeneous East African region. The currently accepted “mountain refugia hypothesis” states that populations living in disjunct montane forests belong to a different lineage than those in savanna habitats surrounding these forests. We obtained microsatellite data, mitochondrial sequences, and morphometric data from worker honey bees collected from feral colonies in three montane forests and corresponding neighboring savanna regions in Kenya. Honey bee colonies from montane forests showed distinct worker morphology compared with colonies in savanna areas. Mitochondrial sequence data did not support the existence of the two currently accepted subspecies. Furthermore, analyses of the microsatellite data with a Bayesian clustering method did not support the existence of two source populations as it would be expected under the mountain refugia scenario. Our findings suggest that phenotypic plasticity rather than distinct ancestry is the leading cause behind the phenotypic divergence observed between montane forest and savanna honey bees. Our study thus corroborates the idea that high gene flow may select for increased plasticity.     

Climate as a driver of tropical insular diversity: comparative phylogeography of two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico

The effects of late Quaternary climate on distributions and evolutionary dynamics of insular species are poorly understood in most tropical archipelagoes. We used ecological niche models under past and current climate to derive hypotheses regarding how stable climatic conditions shaped genetic diversity in two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico. Whereas the mountain coquí Eleutherodactylus portoricensis is restricted to montane forest in the Cayey and Luquillo Mountains, the red‐eyed coquí E. antillensis is a habitat generalist distributed across the entire Puerto Rican Bank (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, excluding St Croix). To test our hypotheses, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear loci of each species across their range in Puerto Rico. Patterns of population differentiation in E. portoricensis, but not in E. antillensis, supported our hypotheses. For E. portoricensis, these patterns include: individuals isolated by long‐term unsuitable climate in the Río Grande de Loíza Basin in eastern Puerto Rico belong to different genetic clusters; past and current climate strongly predicted genetic differentiation; and Cayey and Luquillo Mountains populations split prior to the last interglacial. For E. antillensis, these patterns include: genetic clusters did not fully correspond to predicted long‐term unsuitable climate; and past and current climate weakly predicted patterns of genetic differentiation. Genetic signatures in E. antillensis are consistent with a recent range expansion into western Puerto Rico, possibly resulting from climate change and anthropogenic influences. As predicted, regions with a large area of long‐term suitable climate were associated with higher genetic diversity in both species, suggesting larger and more stable populations. Finally, we discussed the implications of our findings for developing evidence‐based management decisions for E. portoricensis, a taxon of special concern. Our findings illustrate the role of persistent suitable climatic conditions in promoting the persistence and diversification of tropical island organisms.     

Distributional shifts – not geographic isolation – as a probable driver of montane species divergence

As biodiversity hotspots, montane regions have been a focus of research to understand the divergence process. Like their oceanic counterparts, the diversity of the ‘sky islands’ might be ascribed to geographic isolation of mountaintops. However, because the sky islands, and especially those in northern latitudes, are subject to extreme climatic events such as the glacial cycles that drove both altitudinal and geographical shifts in species’ distributions, the dynamic colonization process is also a possible factor driving divergence. Here we test these two hypotheses (i.e. isolation versus colonization) in a flightless montane grasshopper, Melanoplus oregonensis, which is a member of a diverse group that radiated across the Rocky Mountains of North America. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and spatially explicit simulations that account for spatial heterogeneity and temporal shifts in species distributions, we show that a colonization model of the sky islands from refugial populations provides a significantly better fit to the empirical genetic data than a model of the geographic isolation among sky islands. Moreover, support for the colonization model holds irrespective of whether the movement of individuals was modeled as a diffusion process or was informed by differences in habitat suitabilities across the landscape. With validation analyses to confirm the models provide a good fit to the data, as well as general power and quality analyses, the research not only adds to a growing body of work on the complex dynamics underlying montane biodiversity, but it also provides much needed evaluation of competing hypotheses based on explicit models of the divergence process, as opposed to inferences about diversification drivers from species diversity patterns.