Usefulness of molecular markers for detecting population bottlenecks via monitoring genetic change

It is important to detect population bottlenecks in threatened and managed species because bottlenecks can increase the risk of population extinction. Early detection is critical and can be facilitated by statistically powerful monitoring programs for detecting bottleneck-induced genetic change. We used Monte Carlo computer simulations to evaluate the power of the following tests for detecting genetic changes caused by a severe reduction in a population's effective size ( N _e): a test for loss of heterozygosity, two tests for loss of alleles, two tests for change in the distribution of allele frequencies, and a test for small N _e based on variance in allele frequencies (the 'variance test'). The variance test was most powerful; it provided an 85% probability of detecting a bottleneck of size N _e = 10 when monitoring five microsatellite loci and sampling 30 individuals both before and one generation after the bottleneck. The variance test was almost 10-times more powerful than a commonly used test for loss of heterozygosity, and it allowed for detection of bottlenecks before 5% of a population's heterozygosity had been lost. The second most powerful tests were generally the tests for loss of alleles. However, these tests had reduced power for detecting genetic bottlenecks caused by skewed sex ratios. We provide guidelines for the number of loci and individuals needed to achieve high-power tests when monitoring via the variance test. We also illustrate how the variance test performs when monitoring loci that have widely different allele frequency distributions as observed in five wild populations of mountain sheep ( Ovis canadensis ).     

Impact on Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) Genetic Diversity from Two Parallel Population Bottlenecks Founded from a Common Source

Population bottlenecks and founder events reduce genetic diversity through stochastic processes associated with the sampling of alleles at the time of the bottleneck, and the recombination of alleles that are identical by descent. At the same time bottlenecks and founder events can structure populations through the stochastic distortion of allele frequencies. Here we undertake an empirical assessment of the impact of two independent bottlenecks of known size from a known source, and consider inference about evolutionary process in the context of simulations and theoretical expectations. We find a similar level of reduced variation in the parallel bottleneck events, with the greater impact on the population that began with the smaller number of females. The level of diversity remaining was consistent with model predictions, but only if re-growth of the population was essentially exponential and polygeny was minimal at the early stages. There was a high level of differentiation seen compared to the source population and between the two bottlenecked populations, reflecting the stochastic distortion of allele frequencies. We provide empirical support for the theoretical expectations that considerable diversity can remain following a severe bottleneck event, given rapid demographic recovery, and that populations founded from the same source can become quickly differentiated. These processes may be important during the evolution of population genetic structure for species affected by rapid changes in available habitat.     

The effect of epistasis on the excess of the additive and nonadditive variances after population bottlenecks

The effect of population bottlenecks on the components of the genetic variance generated by two neutral independent epistatic loci has been studied theoretically (VA, additive; VD, dominant; VAA, additive x additive; VAD, additive x dominant; VDD; dominant x dominant components of variance). Nonoverdominance and overdominance models were considered, covering all possible types of marginal gene action at the single locus level. The variance components in an infinitely large panmictic population (ancestral components) were compared with their expected values at equilibrium, after t consecutive bottlenecks of equal size N (derived components). Formulae were obtained in terms of allele frequencies and effects at each locus and the corresponding epistatic value. An excess of VA after bottlenecks can be assigned to two sources: (1) the spatiotemporal changes in the marginal average effects of gene substitution alpha(i), which are equal to zero only for additive gene action within and between loci; and (2) the covariance between alpha2(i) and the heterozygosity at the loci involved, which is generated by dominance, with or without epistasis. Numerical examples were analyzed, indicating that an increase in VA after bottlenecks will only occur if its ancestral value is minimal or very small. For the nonoverdominance model with weak reinforcing epistasis, that increase has been detected only for extreme frequencies of the negative allele at one or both loci. With strong epistasis, however, this result can be extended to a broad range of intermediate frequencies. With no epistasis, the same qualitative results were found, indicating that dominance can be considered as the primary cause of an increase in VA following bottlenecks. In parallel, the derived total nonadditive variance exceeded its ancestral value (V(NA) = V(D) + V(AA) + V(AD) + V(DD)) for a range of combinations of allele frequencies covering those for an excess of VA and for very large frequencies of the negative allele at both loci. For the overdominance model, an increase in V(A) and V(NA) was respectively observed for equilibrium (intermediate) frequencies at one or both loci or for extreme frequencies at both loci. For all models, the magnitude of the change of V(A) and V(NA) was inversely related to N and t. At low levels of inbreeding, the between-line variance was not affected by the type of gene action. For the models considered, the results indicate that it is unlikely that the rate of evolution may be accelerated after population bottlenecks, in spite of occasional increments of the derived V(A) over its ancestral value.     

The effect of genetic drift on the variance/covariance components generated by multilocus additive x additive epistatic systems

The effect of population bottlenecks on the components of the genetic variance/covariance generated by n neutral independent additive x additive loci has been studied theoretically. In its simplest version, this situation can be modelled by specifying the allele frequencies and homozygous effects at each locus, and an additional factor measuring the strength of the n-th order epistatic interaction. The variance/covariance components in an infinitely large panmictic population (ancestral components) were compared with their expected values at equilibrium over replicates randomly derived from the base population, after t bottlenecks of size N (derived components). Formulae were obtained giving the derived components (and the between-line variance) as functions of the ancestral ones (alternatively, in terms of allele frequencies and effects) and the corresponding inbreeding coefficient F(t). The n-th order derived component of the genetic variance/covariance is continuously eroded by inbreeding, but the remaining components may increase initially until a critical F(t) value is attained, which is inversely related to the order of the pertinent component, and subsequently decline to zero. These changes can be assigned to the between-line variances/covariances of gene substitution and epistatic effects induced by drift. Numerical examples indicate that: (1) the derived additive variance/covariance component will generally exceed its ancestral value unless epistasis is weak; (2) the derived epistatic variance/covariance components will generally exceed their ancestral values unless allele frequencies are extreme; (3) for systems showing equal ancestral additive and total non-additive variance/covariance components, those including a smaller number of epistatic loci may generate a larger excess in additive variance/covariance after bottlenecks than others involving a larger number of loci, provided that F(t) is low. Our results indicate that it is unlikely that the rate of evolution may be significantly accelerated after population bottlenecks, in spite of occasional increments of the derived additive variance over its ancestral value.     

High and Distinct Range-Edge Genetic Diversity despite Local Bottlenecks

The genetic consequences of living on the edge of distributional ranges have been the subject of a largely unresolved debate. Populations occurring along persistent low latitude ranges (rear-edge) are expected to retain high and unique genetic diversity. In contrast, currently less favourable environmental conditions limiting population size at such range-edges may have caused genetic erosion that prevails over past historical effects, with potential consequences on reducing future adaptive capacity. The present study provides an empirical test of whether population declines towards a peripheral range might be reflected on decreasing diversity and increasing population isolation and differentiation. We compare population genetic differentiation and diversity with trends in abundance along a latitudinal gradient towards the peripheral distribution range of Saccorhiza polyschides , a large brown seaweed that is the main structural species of kelp forests in SW Europe. Signatures of recent bottleneck events were also evaluated to determine whether the recently recorded distributional shifts had a negative influence on effective population size. Our findings show decreasing population density and increasing spatial fragmentation and local extinctions towards the southern edge. Genetic data revealed two well supported groups with a central contact zone. As predicted, higher differentiation and signs of bottlenecks were found at the southern edge region. However, a decrease in genetic diversity associated with this pattern was not verified. Surprisingly, genetic diversity increased towards the edge despite bottlenecks and much lower densities, suggesting that extinctions and recolonizations have not strongly reduced diversity or that diversity might have been even higher there in the past, a process of shifting genetic baselines.     

Founder effect and bottleneck signatures in an introduced,insular population of elk

The population of elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) inhabiting Afognak Island, Alaska, USA arose from an introduction of 8 individuals from an established population in Washington, USA in 1929, and recently peaked at approximately 1,400 individuals. We examined indices of diversity for 15 microsatellite loci in the Afognak population and compared them to levels in the parent population to determine effects of translocation and demography on genetic variation. The Afognak population differed significantly (P < 0.0001) from the source population in both allele and genotype frequencies. Allelic richness, number of private alleles and multilocus heterozygosity, but not percent loci polymorphic, were significantly lower in Afognak elk. Mean inbreeding coefficients within Afognak (f = 0.019) and source (f = −0.006) populations did not differ significantly from zero. Despite the demographic bottleneck, no evidence of a genetic bottleneck in the Afognak population was detected using a test for heterozygosity excess or mode shift of allele frequencies. Simulations indicated that rapid population growth after the translocation resulted in heterozygosity excess for only 8 years. Conversely, a statistic testing for a bottleneck signature in the ratio of allele number to allele size range (M-ratio) was significant for both the Afognak and source populations, suggesting that the Afognak population had effectively undergone serial bottlenecks. Nonetheless, Afognak failed to show a smaller M-ratio than the parent population, suggesting a failure of that statistic to detect the bottleneck associated with introduction. We show that a severe bottleneck followed by rapid population growth may be undetectable using available tests.     

Epistasis and the temporal change in the additive variance-covariance matrix induced by drift

The effect of population bottlenecks on the components of the genetic covariance generated by two neutral independent epistatic loci has been studied theoretically (additive, covA; dominance, covD; additive-by-additive, covAA; additive-by-dominance, covAD; and dominance-by-dominance, covDD). The additive-by-additive model and a more general model covering all possible types of marginal gene action at the single-locus level (additive/dominance epistatic model) were considered. The covariance components in an infinitely large panmictic population (ancestral components) were compared with their expected values at equilibrium over replicates randomly derived from the base population, after t consecutive bottlenecks of equal size N (derived components). Formulae were obtained in terms of the allele frequencies and effects at each locus, the corresponding epistatic effects and the inbreeding coefficient Ft. These expressions show that the contribution of nonadditive loci to the derived additive covariance (covAt) does not linearly decrease with inbreeding, as in the pure additive case, and may initially increase or even change sign in specific situations. Numerical examples were also analyzed, restricted for simplicity to the case of all covariance components being positive. For additive-by-additive epistasis, the condition covAt > covA only holds for high frequencies of the allele decreasing the metric traits at each locus (negative allele) if epistasis is weak, or for intermediate allele frequencies if it is strong. For the additive/dominance epistatic model, however, covAt > covA applies for low frequencies of the negative alleles at one or both loci and mild epistasis, but this result can be progressively extended to intermediate frequencies as epistasis becomes stronger. Without epistasis the same qualitative results were found, indicating that marginal dominance induced by epistasis can be considered as the primary cause of an increase of the additive covariance after bottlenecks. For all models, the magnitude of the ratio covAt/covA was inversely related to N and t.     

Test for a population expansion after a drastic reduction in population size using DNA sequence data

Populations may, during their evolutionary history, go through drastic changes in population size due to bottlenecks or founder events upon colonization of new areas. This involves a subsample of haplotypes, causing the allele frequencies to be different from the original population. In addition, the period of recovery after a bottleneck can be of considerable length. If reproduction is unequal among individuals but random with regard to haplotype, large deviations from the patterns expected in a stable population may result. By means of computer simulation, I have analysed the patterns arising when populations undergo bottlenecks and then slowly recover, and used two new statistical tests for the detection of the bottleneck. A test based on the variance of the relative frequency of haplotypes had generally high power even at low sample size (n=25). This statistic was most powerful after very strong bottlenecks and lost power with increasing propagule size. A test based on the variance of the pairwise differences shows slightly less power. As expected, power was reduced when migration into the founder population was allowed from the source population. This suggests that the test is particularly suited for detecting relatively recent and strong bottlenecks, and thus may be a valuable tool for identifying population events on a fine temporal scale, such as colonisations after the last glaciation.     

Genetic analysis of a documented population bottleneck: introduced Bennett's wallabies (Macropus rufogriseus rufogriseus) in New Zealand

Few bottlenecks of wild populations are sufficiently well-documented to constitute models for testing theories about the impact of bottlenecks on genetic variation, and subsequent population persistence. Relevant details of the Bennett's wallaby (Macropus rufogriseus rufogriseus) introduction into New Zealand were recorded (founder number, source and approximate bottleneck duration) and suggest this may provide a rare opportunity to examine the efficacy of tests designed to detect recent bottlenecks in wild populations. We first assessed the accuracy of historic accounts of the introduction using genetic diversity detected in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and at five microsatellite loci. Phylogenetic analyses of mtDNA D-loop sequence haplotypes were consistent with the reported origin of the founders as Tasmania, rather than one of the Bass Strait islands in which Bennett's wallabies are also found. Microsatellite allele frequencies from the Tasmanian source population were then used to seed bottleneck simulations encompassing varying sizes and numbers of generations, in order to assess the severity of bottleneck consistent with diversity observed in the New Zealand population. The results suggested that the founder number was unlikely to have been as small as the three animals suggested by the account of the introduction. Nonetheless, the bottleneck was probably severe; in the range of three to five pairs of wallabies for one to three generations. It resulted in significantly reduced levels of allelic diversity and heterozygosity relative to the source population. This bottleneck is only detectable under the infinite allele model (IAM) and not under the stepwise mutation model (SMM) or the two-phase model (TPM), and possible explanations for this are discussed.     

Structure of allozyme variation in Nordic Silene nutans (Caryophyllaceae): population size, geographical position and immigration history

We investigated allozyme variation in 34 populations of the perennial herb Silene nutans from Sweden and northern Finland, areas that were ice-covered during the last (Weichselian) glaciation. The present geographical structure of genetic variation in S. nutans in Sweden and northern Finland appears to have been mainly shaped by ancient historical processes. Patterns of variation in allele frequencies suggest two major postglacial immigration routes into Sweden, with populations entering the area from both the south and the east and forming a contact zone with admixed populations in central Sweden. While estimates of within-population genetic diversity and allelic richness are significantly correlated with present population size and geographical position (latitude), population size is not correlated with latitude. Low genetic diversity in the northern populations is more likely to have resulted from ancient stochastic events during the process of immigration than from recent population fragmentation. F _IS values are high and increase with latitude. Evidence of recent bottlenecks was detected in several southern Swedish populations: these can be interpreted in terms of population fragmentation as a result of anthropogenic disturbance. Soil pH is uncorrelated with population size and position.  © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2004, 81 , 357–371.     

Population genetic substructure in blue whiting based on allozyme data

The genetic population structure of the pelagic gadoid blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou throughout its east Atlantic distribution range was explored using polymorphisms at the tissue enzyme loci IDHP-2 * and PGM-1 *. The study included 5025 individuals from 65 locations in the east Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Significant geographic heterogeneity in allele frequencies was demonstrated at both loci ( IDHP-2 *: P=0·030, PGM-1 *: P=0·005). The degree of genetic differentiation ( F _ST= 1·1%) in blue whiting appears to be at the same level as for the demersal gadoids cod and haddock. Several separate reproductive units were indicated at the fringes of the distribution range, i.e. in the Barents Sea, and in one Norwegian fjord (Romsdalsfjord).     

Epistasis and the conversion of non-additive to additive genetic variance at population bottlenecks

The effect of population bottlenecks on the mean and the additive variance generated by two neutral independent epistatic loci has been studied theoretically. Six epistatic models, used in the analysis of binary disease traits, were considered. Ancestral values in an infinitely large panmictic population were compared with their expectations at equilibrium, after t consecutive bottlenecks of equal size N (derived values). An increase in the additive variance after bottlenecks (inversely related to N and t) will occur only if the frequencies of the negative allele at each locus are: (1) low, invariably associated to strong inbreeding depression; (2) high, always accompanied by an enhancement of the mean with inbreeding. The latter is an undesirable property, making the pertinent models unsuitable for the genetic analysis of disease. For the epistatic models considered, it is unlikely that the rate of evolution may be accelerated after population bottlenecks, in spite of occasional increments of the derived additive variance over its ancestral value.     

High gene flow across large geographic scales reduces extinction risk for a highly specialised coral feeding butterflyfish

The vulnerability of ecologically specialised species to environmental fluctuations has been well documented. However, population genetic structure can influence vulnerability to environmental change and recent studies have indicated that specialised species may have lower genetic diversity and greater population structuring compared to their generalist counterparts. To examine whether there were differences in population genetic structure between a dietary specialist (Chaetodon trifascialis) and a dietary generalist (Chaetodon lunulatus) we compared the demographic history and levels of gene flow of two related coral-feeding butterflyfishes. Using allele frequencies of ≥11 microsatellite loci and >350 bases of mitochondrial control region sequence our analyses of C. trifascialis and C. lunulatus from five locations across the Pacific Ocean revealed contrasting demographic histories and levels of genetic structure. Heterozygosity excess tests, neutrality tests and mismatch distributions were all highly significant in the dietary specialist C. trifascialis (all P < 0.01), suggesting genetic bottlenecks have occurred in all locations. In contrast, we found little evidence of genetic bottlenecks for the dietary generalist C. lunulatus. High gene flow and low genetic structuring was detected among locations for C. trifascialis (amova: R(ST) = 0.0027, P = 0.371; Φ(ST) = 0.068, P < 0.0001). Contrary to our expectations, a greater level of genetic structuring between locations was detected for C. lunulatus (amova: R(ST) = 0.0277, Φ(ST) = 0.166, both P < 0.0001). These results suggest that dietary specialisation may affect demographic history through reductions in population size following resource declines, without affecting population structure through reductions in gene flow in the same way that habitat specialisation appears to. Although C. trifascialis is highly vulnerable to coral loss, the high gene flow detected here suggests populations will be able to recover from local declines through the migration of individuals.     

Selection often overrides the effects of random processes in island populations of Philaenus spumarius (Homoptera)

The influence of various evolutionary factors on the populations of the colour polymorphic meadow spittlebug, Philaenus spumarius (Homoptera), was investigated on islands in the Gulf of Finland. Long-term (30-year) investigations showed that the populations can survive through very narrow bottlenecks, but after strong reduction in the size of a population, random genetic drift may remove alleles or change allele frequencies. One of the factors sustaining the presence of almost all the colour polymorphism alleles in almost all the populations is gene flow. Migration seems to be largely by air and by the sea surface (anemohydrochoric). On one rocky island, gene flow was able to carry the top dominant allele, p^T, to a number of scattered plant stands. However, it was not powerful enough to alter the differences in allele frequencies between populations living on the same island in meadows of different types 3 m or 12 m from each other. It is highly probable that the factor operating is meadow-specific selection. Its action appears to be based on the ecological character of the meadow. In the different meadows, the coverages of the food plants of the spittlebug are dissimilar. Differences in plant assemblages are possibly of importance in maintaining the meadow-specific allele frequencies in the spittlebug populations.     

Extremely low genetic diversity and weak population differentiation in the endangered Colombian river turtle Podocnemis lewyana (Testudines: Podocnemididae)

Podocnemis lewyana is an endangered endemic river turtle of Colombia. Using ten unlinked polymorphic microsatellite loci and a 691-bp-long DNA fragment corresponding to the more variable portion of the mitochondrial control region, we investigated genetic diversity and population structure throughout its range. Both neutral markers showed extremely low diversity and weak population differentiation. Our data indicate that the genetic history of P. lewyana has been impacted by multiple bottlenecks and population expansion since the Pleistocene. The observed differentiation pattern is most likely the result of historically low genetic variation resulting from restricted geographic range and aggravated by recent anthropogenically induced bottlenecks. Based on slight differences in allele frequencies among populations, we suggest that three regions should be treated as demographically independent Management Units in order to preserve maximal genetic diversity: (1) the Upper Magdalena River Basin, (2) the Lower Magdalena + Lower Cauca + San Jorge River Basins, and (3) the Sinú River Basin. Among the Management Units, only low to moderate levels of gene flow were detected; these are largely unidirectional from Management Units 1 and 3 into Management Unit 2.     

Molecular evidence for a founder effect in invasive house finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) populations experiencing an emergent disease epidemic

The impact of founder events on levels of genetic variation in natural populations remains a topic of significant interest. Well-documented introductions provide a valuable opportunity to examine how founder events influence genetic diversity in invasive species. House finches (Carpodacus mexicanus) are passerine birds native to western North America, with the large eastern North American population derived from a small number of captive individuals released in the 1940s. Previous comparisons using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers found equivalent levels of diversity in eastern and western populations, suggesting that any genetic effects of the founder event were ameliorated by the rapid growth of the newly established population. We used an alternative marker system, 10 highly polymorphic microsatellites, to compare levels of genetic diversity between four native and five introduced house finch populations. In contrast to the AFLP comparisons, we found significantly lower allelic richness and heterozygosity in introduced populations across all loci. Three out of five introduced populations showed significant reductions in the ratio of the number of alleles to the allele size range, a within-population characteristic of recent bottlenecks. Finally, native and introduced populations showed significant pairwise differences in allele frequencies in every case, with stronger isolation by distance within the introduced than native range. Overall, our results provide compelling molecular evidence for a founder effect during the introduction of eastern house finches that reduced diversity levels at polymorphic microsatellite loci and may have contributed to the emergence of the Mycoplasma epidemic which recently swept the eastern range of this species.     

Intraspecific mitochondrial DNA variation in the Colorado potato beetle,Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Restriction endonuclease analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) were used to examine genetic variability and population structure inLeptinotarsa decemlineata (Say). A group of three enzymes, EcoRI, HpaI, and PstI, was used to reveal polymorphism both within and among some of the 10 populations tested, yielding 16 haplotypes in combination. The frequencies of these 16 haplotypes differed significantly across geographic regions, indicating some partitioning of mtDNA haplotypes. Estimates of mtDNA sequence divergence (δ) between haplotypes ranged from 0.016 to 0.135%, suggesting local differentiation of mtDNA in some populations. Analysis of these data suggests that Texas was colonized by more than one mtDNA lineage, most likely originating in Mexico. We hypothesize that a larger founder size for the initial introductions or high levels of variability in the parent population at the edge of the CPB expanding range led to the initial partitioning of haplotypes observed in samples from Texas.     

Experimental evaluation of the usefulness of microsatellite DNA for detecting demographic bottlenecks

Evolutionary and conservation biologists often use molecular markers to evaluate whether populations have experienced demographic bottlenecks that resulted in a loss of genetic variation. We evaluated the utility of microsatellites for detection of recent, severe bottlenecks and compared the amounts of genetic diversity lost in bottlenecks of different sizes. In experimental mesocosms, we established replicate populations by releasing 1, 2, 4 or 8 pairs of the western mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis (Poeciliidae). Using eight polymorphic microsatellite loci, we quantified seven indices of genetic diversity or change that have been used to assess the effects of demographic bottlenecks on populations. We compared indices for the experimentally bottlenecked populations to those for the source population and examined differences between populations established with different numbers of founders. Direct count heterozygosity and the proportion of polymorphic loci were not very sensitive to genetic changes that resulted from the experimental bottlenecks. Heterozygosity excess and expected heterozygosity were useful to varying degrees in the detection of bottlenecks. Allelic diversity and temporal variance in allele frequencies were most sensitive to genetic changes that resulted from the bottlenecks, and the temporal variance method was slightly more correlated with bottleneck size than was allelic diversity. Based on comparisons to a previous study with allozymes, heterozygosity, temporal variance in allele frequencies and allelic diversity, but not proportion of polymorphic loci, appear to be more sensitive to demographic bottlenecks when quantified using microsatellites. We found that analysis of eight highly polymorphic loci was sufficient to detect a recent demographic bottleneck and to obtain an estimate of the magnitude of bottleneck severity.     

Microsatellite analysis of the phylogeography, Pleistocene history and secondary contact hypotheses for the killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus

The mummichog, Fundulus heteroclitus, exhibits extensive latitudinal clinal variation in a number of physiological and biochemical traits, coupled with phylogeographical patterns at mitochondrial and nuclear DNA loci that suggest a complicated history of spatially variable selection and secondary intergradation. This species continues to serve as a model for understanding local and regional adaptation to variable environments. Resolving the influences of historical processes on the distribution of genetic variation within and among extant populations of F. heteroclitus is crucial to a better understanding of how populations evolve in the context of contemporary environments. In this study, we analysed geographical patterns of genetic variation at eight microsatellite loci among 15 populations of F. heteroclitus distributed throughout the North American range of the species from Nova Scotia to Georgia. Genetic variation in Northern populations was lower than in Southern populations and was strongly correlated with latitude throughout the species range. The most common Northern alleles at all eight loci exhibited concordant latitudinal clinal patterns, and the existence of an abrupt transition zone in allele frequencies between Northern and Southern populations was similar to that observed for mitochondrial DNA and allozyme loci. A significant pattern of isolation by distance was observed both within and between northern and southern regions. This pattern was unexpected, particularly for northern populations, given the recent colonization history of post-Pleistocene habitats, and was inconsistent with either a recent northward population expansion or a geographically restricted northern Pleistocene refugium. The data provided no evidence for recent population bottlenecks, and estimates of historical effective population sizes suggest that post-Pleistocene populations have been large throughout the species distribution. These results suggest that F. heteroclitus was broadly distributed throughout most of its current range during the last glacial event and that the abrupt transition in allele frequencies that separate Northern and Southern populations may reflect regional disequilibrium conditions associated with the post-Pleistocene colonization history of habitats in that region.     

Serial founder effects during range expansion: a spatial analog of genetic drift

Range expansions cause a series of founder events. We show that, in a one-dimensional habitat, these founder events are the spatial analog of genetic drift in a randomly mating population. The spatial series of allele frequencies created by successive founder events is equivalent to the time series of allele frequencies in a population of effective size ke, the effective number of founders. We derive an expression for ke in a discrete-population model that allows for local population growth and migration among established populations. If there is selection, the net effect is determined approximately by the product of the selection coefficients and the number of generations between successive founding events. We use the model of a single population to compute analytically several quantities for an allele present in the source population: (i) the probability that it survives the series of colonization events, (ii) the probability that it reaches a specified threshold frequency in the last population, and (iii) the mean and variance of the frequencies in each population. We show that the analytic theory provides a good approximation to simulation results. A consequence of our approximation is that the average heterozygosity of neutral alleles decreases by a factor of 1-1/(2ke) in each new population. Therefore, the population genetic consequences of surfing can be predicted approximately by the effective number of founders and the effective selection coefficients, even in the presence of migration among populations. We also show that our analytic results are applicable to a model of range expansion in a continuously distributed population.