Examining Cassava’s Potential to Enhance Food Security Under Climate Change

Approximately 925 million people are undernourished and almost 90% of these people live in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Asia and the Pacific. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, continues to have the highest proportion of chronically hungry individuals, where 1 in 3 (ca. 240 million) are undernourished in terms of both food quantity and nutrition. The threat of substantial changes in climate raises concerns about future capacity to sustain even current levels of food availability because climate change will impact food security most severely in regions where undernourishment is already problematic. Estimates of future climate change impacts on crops vary widely, particularly in Africa, due in part to a lack of agricultural and meteorological data. To more accurately predict future climate change impacts on food security we must first precisely assess the impact of climate change drivers on crops of food insecure regions. Recent advances in biofortification, a substantial yield gap, and an inherent potential to respond positively to globally increasing CO₂ levels are synergistic and encouraging for cassava in an otherwise bleak global view of the future of food security in the developing world.     

Riparian Ecosystems in the 21st Century: Hotspots for Climate Change Adaptation?

Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation ‘hotspots’ as the century unfolds.     

How does Behavior Change the Brain? Multiple Methods to Answer Old Questions

Clearly the brain controls behavior but can behavior also "control" the brain? On an evolutionary time scale, selective ecological pressures shape the sensory and motor capacities as well as the body and behavior. Correspondingly, in development, behavior acts in concert with the environment to cause structural changes in the brain lasting a lifetime. Surprisingly, in "real time" social behavior can also cause changes, typically reversible, in the brain in adult animals. Changes caused by behavioral interactions can be dramatic, and in many instances, these interactions are directly related to reproductive behavior. Understanding how behavior sculpts the brain in the course of behavioral interactions is a major challenge. Analyzing such changes requires a model system allowing control of the biological and behavioral environment of many animals simultaneously yet allowing access to physiological, cellular and molecular processes being regulated. The mouthbrooding cichlid Haplochromis (Astatotilapia) burtoni (Günther) from Lake Tanganyika lends itself to the study of social influences on the brain. It has complex, though easily observable individual and social behaviors regulated by two distinct classes of males, those with territories and those without. Many features of the animals are shaped by social encounters including the maturation of juveniles, the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis, the growth rate, the basal stress level among others. How does social information effect change in the brain and body? Animals must attend to the social scene to identify their chances. Learning how social information is transduced into cellular changes in this species should help understand how this happens in other social animals.     

Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather?

To conserve a declining species we first need to diagnose the causes of decline. This is one of the most challenging tasks faced by conservation practitioners. In this study, we used temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to test whether shifting weather can explain the recent decline of a marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus). We developed an SDM using weather variables matched to occurrence records of the eastern quoll over the last 60 years, and used the model to reconstruct variation through time in the distribution of climatically suitable range for the species. The weather model produced a meaningful prediction of the known distribution of the species. Abundance of quolls, indexed by transect counts, was positively related to the modelled area of suitable habitat between 1990 and 2004. In particular, a sharp decline in abundance from 2001 to 2003 coincided with a sustained period of unsuitable weather over much of the species’ distribution. Since 2004, abundance has not recovered despite a return to suitable weather conditions, and abundance and area of suitable habitat have been uncorrelated. We suggest that fluctuations in weather account for the species’ recent decline, but other unrelated factors have suppressed recovery.     

“Community Work” in a Climate of Adaptation: Responding to Change in Rural Alaska

We draw on our research experiences with municipal workers in Alaska, where the impacts of climate change are already extensive, to examine adaptation and related concepts, such as resilience and vulnerability, which have become widely used in science and policy formulation for addressing climate change despite also being subject to multiple critiques. We use local people’s experiences with environmental challenges to illustrate limitations of the climate change adaptation paradigm, and offer the additional concept of “community work” — analogous to niche construction — as a counterpart to the adaptive process at the community level. Whereas climate change adaptation insinuates active and purposive change, the reality we have repeatedly encountered is that people in these communities focus not on changing but on building and maintaining capacity and achieving stability: keeping aging and overtaxed infrastructure running while also working toward improving quality of life and services in their communities. We discuss how these findings are congruent with recent calls to better situate climate change adaptation policy in the context of community development, and argue that scientists and policymakers need to understand this context of community work to avoid the pitfalls that potentially accompany the adaptation paradigm.     

Laypeople's Risky Decisions in the Climate Change Context: Climate Engineering as a Risk-Defusing Strategy?

This study explores the development of laypeople's preferences for newly emerging climate engineering technology (CE). It examines whether laypeople perceive CE to be an acceptable back-up strategy (plan B) if current efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions were to fail. This idea is a common justification for CE research in the scientific debate and may significantly influence future public debates. Ninety-eight German participants chose their preferred climate policy strategy in a quasi-realistic scenario. Participants could chose between mitigation and three CE techniques as alternative options. We employed a think-aloud interview technique, which allowed us to trace participants’ informational needs and thought processes. Drawing on Huber's risk management decision theory, the study addressed whether specific CE options are more likely to be accepted if they are mentally represented as a back-up strategy. Results support this assumption, especially for cloud whitening. This result is especially relevant considering the high prevalence of the plan B framing in CE appraisal studies and its implications for public opinion-formation processes.     

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.     

An Answer to Schrödinger’s What Is Life?

That semiosis is specific to the living world is the cornerstone of biosemiotics. For checking an information-theoretic interpretation of this statement already proposed at the 2009 Biosemiotics Gathering in Prague, it is first attempted here to answer a question asked by Kupiec and Sonigo in Ni Dieu ni Gène (2000) on what differentiates living objects and those resulting from a geophysical process. Similar questions were asked by Schr?dinger in his essay What Is Life? where the emphasis was laid on the relationship of the atomic scale of the genes and the macroscopic scale of living beings. This essay was published in 1944, before information was introduced as a scientific entity, at a time when DNA was not yet identified as the vector of heredity. We undertake answering some of these questions, arguing that the living world is made of organisms, i.e., of assemblies possessing in a genome the information needed for their replication and their maintenance while the inanimate world only contains aggregates. In short, a biological process keeps its order through the use of information. For defining order, it is proposed that an orderly object can be produced by a construction (e.g., the copy of a template) using available data within some given context. In other words, replicating an orderly object does not bring new information into its context. Order in this meaning appears as specific to the living world, at variance with the inanimate world which is basically disorderly. A better understanding of what separates the living world from the inanimate world results: the use of information is the distinguishing feature which defines their border. Any living thing contains a symbolic information, referred to as its genome, inscribed into DNA molecules. This genome can indeed be copied but, its support being embedded in the physical world, it incurs disturbances which result in symbol errors. Keeping its order thus needs endowing any genome with error correction ability: it must belong to a redundant code, i.e., a set of sequences separated by some minimum distance. The larger its minimum distance, the more immune to errors are the elements of a code. Then genomes become as distinct as to ensure order. Identity and specificity result. Although conservative according to the above definition of order, the living world actually exhibits an extreme diversity which even tends to increase as evolution proceeds. In sharp contrast, homogeneity and monotony are observed in the inanimate world, assumed however non-conservative. In order to solve this paradox and justify the proposed definition of order, it is argued that the error-correcting means which ensure the conservation of genomes fail with some low, but non-zero, probability. Although very infrequent, regeneration errors result in genomes largely different from the initial ones; and the correction mechanisms conserve the mutated genomes just as the original ones. The operation of life changes scales, since the regeneration errors which originate in atomic events have observable consequences at the macroscopic scale.     

Can Boreal and Temperate Forest Management be Adapted to the Uncertainties of 21st Century Climate Change?

Considerable uncertainties remain about magnitude and character, if not general direction of anthropogenic climate change. Global mean temperature could increase by 1.5–4.5°C or more over historic levels, and extreme weather events—drought, storms, and flooding—are likely to increase greatly in frequency. Although ecologists and foresters agree that the practice of forestry will be transformed under climate change, these uncertainties compound the challenge of achieving sustainable, adaptive forest management. In this aritcle, we (i) present a multidisciplinary synthesis of current knowledge of responses of temperate and boreal tree species and forest communities to climate change, and (ii) outline silvicultural strategies for adapting temperate and boreal forests to confront climate change. Our knowledge synthesis proceeds through critical appraisals of efforts to model future tree distributions and responses to climate change, and reviews physiological, phenological, acclimation, and epigenetic responses to climate. As is the case of climate change itself, there are numerous uncertainties about tree species and provenance responses to climate change. For example, acclimation of respiration and epigenetic conditioning of seed embryos has the potential to buffer species against limited warming. Provenances within species also display idiosyncratic responses to altered climates, implying that soemm varieties will be more resilient or resistant to climate change than others. Genetically determined limits to climatic tolerance, and the limits of tree community resistance and resilience (speed of recovery from disturbance) in the face of climate-related disturbances are largely unknown. These unknowns require managers to adopt a portfolio of silvicultural strategies, which may range from minor modifications of current practices to design of novel multi-species stands that may have no historical analogue. Forest managers must be prepared to respond nimbly as they develop, incorporate new insights about climate change and species responses to warming into their practices. Marshalling all strategies and sources of knowledge should enable forest managers to mount (at least) a partially successful response to the challenges of climate change.     

Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21^st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.     

Will Temperature Effects or Phenotypic Plasticity Determine the Thermal Response of a Heterothermic Tropical Bat to Climate Change?

The proportion of organisms exposed to warm conditions is predicted to increase during global warming. To better understand how bats might respond to climate change, we aimed to obtain the first data on how use of torpor, a crucial survival strategy of small bats, is affected by temperature in the tropics. Over two mild winters, tropical free-ranging bats (Nyctophilus bifax, 10 g, n = 13) used torpor on 95% of study days and were torpid for 33.5±18.8% of 113 days measured. Torpor duration was temperature-dependent and an increase in ambient temperature by the predicted 2°C for the 21^st century would decrease the time in torpor to 21.8%. However, comparisons among Nyctophilus populations show that regional phenotypic plasticity attenuates temperature effects on torpor patterns. Our data suggest that heterothermy is important for energy budgeting of bats even under warm conditions and that flexible torpor use will enhance bats’ chance of survival during climate change.     

Understanding the Causes of Recent Warming of Mediterranean Waters. How Much Could Be Attributed to Climate Change?

During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.     

Changes in the Range of Some Common Rocky Shore Species in Britain – A Response to Climate Change?

Since the 1990s there has been a period of rapid climate warming in Europe. Long-term broad scale datasets coupled with time series at specific locations for rocky intertidal species dating back to the 1950s have been collected in Britain and Ireland. Resurveys of the original locations in 2001–2003 have been undertaken to identify changes in the biogeographical range and abundance of these species. The results show that some ‘southern’ species including Osilinus lineatus da Costa and Gibbula umbilicalis da Costa have undergone north and north-eastern range extensions. Populations have increased in abundance and adult size has decreased since the previous surveys were conducted. These changes have been synchronous throughout Britain, strongly suggesting that climate is responsible. The use of intertidal species as indicators of climate change is proposed.     

What Drives Farmers to Make Top-Down or Bottom-Up Adaptation to Climate Change and Fluctuations? A Comparative Study on 3 Cases of Apple Farming in Japan and South Africa

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Farmers have been exposed to multiple stressors including climate change, and they have managed to adapt to those risks. The adaptation actions undertaken by farmers and their decision making are, however, only poorly understood. By studying adaptation practices undertaken by apple farmers in three regions: Nagano and Kazuno in Japan and Elgin in South Africa, we categorize the adaptation actions into two types: farmer initiated bottom-up adaptation and institution led top-down adaptation. We found that the driver which differentiates the type of adaptation likely adopted was strongly related to the farmers’ characteristics, particularly their dependence on the institutions, e.g. the farmers’ cooperative, in selling their products. The farmers who rely on the farmers’ cooperative for their sales are likely to adopt the institution-led adaptation, whereas the farmers who have established their own sales channels tend to start innovative actions by bottom-up. We further argue that even though the two types have contrasting features, the combinations of the both types of adaptations could lead to more successful adaptation particularly in agriculture. This study also emphasizes that more farm-level studies for various crops and regions are warranted to provide substantial feedbacks to adaptation policy.