The opportunity to be misled in studies of sexual selection

It is a challenge to measure sexual selection because both stochastic events (chance) and deterministic factors (selection) generate variation in individuals' reproductive success. Most researchers realize that random events ('noise') make it difficult to detect a relationship between a trait and mating success (i.e. the presence of sexual selection). There is, however, less appreciation of the dangers that arise if stochastic events vary systematically. Systematic variation makes variance-based approaches to measuring the role of selection problematic. This is why measuring the opportunity for sexual selection (I(s) and I(mates)) is so vulnerable to misinterpretation. Although I(s) does not measure actual sexual selection (because it includes stochastic variation in mating/fertilization success) it is often implicitly assumed that it will be correlated with the actual strength of sexual selection. The hidden assumption is that random noise is randomly distributed across populations, species or the sexes. Here we present a simple numerical example showing why this practice is worrisome. Specifically, we show that chance variation in mating success is higher when there are fewer potential mates per individual of the focal sex [i.e. when the operational sex ratio (OSR), is more biased]. This will lead to the OSR covarying with I(s) even when the strength of sexual selection is unaffected by the OSR. This can generate false confidence in identifying factors that determine variation in the strength of sexual selection. We emphasize that in nature, even when sexual selection is strong, chance variation in mating success is still inevitable because the number of mates per individual is a discrete number. We hope that our worked example will clarify a recent debate about how best to measure sexual selection.     

Unifying cornerstones of sexual selection: operational sex ratio,Bateman gradient and the scope for competitive investment

What explains variation in the strength of sexual selection across species, populations or differences between the sexes? Here, we show that unifying two well‐known lines of thinking provides the necessary conceptual framework to account for variation in sexual selection. The Bateman gradient and the operational sex ratio (OSR) are incomplete in complementary ways: the former describes the fitness gain per mating and the latter the potential difficulty of achieving it. We combine this insight with an analysis of the scope for sexually selected traits to spread despite naturally selected costs. We explain why the OSR sometimes does not affect the strength of sexual selection. An explanation of sexual selection becomes more logical when a long ‘dry time’ (‘time out’, recovery after mating due to e.g. parental care) is understood to reduce the expected time to the next mating when in the mating pool (i.e. available to mate again). This implies weaker selection to shorten the wait. An integrative view of sexual selection combines an understanding of the origin of OSR biases with how they are reflected in the Bateman gradient, and how this can produce selection for mate acquisition traits despite naturally selected costs.     

Offspring sex ratio allocation in the parasitic jaeger: selection for pale females and melanic males?

The maintenance of plumage color polymorphism in the parasiticjaeger (Stercorarius parasiticus) is still not well understood.Earlier studies indicated that selection may favor pale femalesand melanic males. If so, females would maximize their fitness,producing pale female and melanic male offspring. We thereforepredicted that females might bias their offspring sex ratiotoward daughters in pale pairs and toward sons in melanic pairs.Females might also choose to mate assortatively in relationto plumage color, thereby maximizing the probability of producingeither pale or melanic offspring. Because females are largerthan males, differential rearing costs may affect the offspringsex ratio independent of parental plumage color. We examinedoffspring sex ratio allocation, breeding variables indicativeof parental quality, and mating pattern in relation to plumagecolor in a colony of parasitic jaegers in northern Norway. Jaegerstended to mate assortatively in relation to plumage color. Thereproductive performance declined with season, and matched pairsappeared to be of lower quality than mixed pairs. The proportionof male offspring increased with hatching date in matched paleand mixed pairs, whereas the situation was reversed in matchedmelanic pairs. Matched pale pairs produced an overall surplusof favorable pale but costly daughters despite their lower quality,while melanic pairs produced a surplus of favorable melanicsons. However, differential offspring rearing costs and parentalrearing capacity may have additionally affected the realizedoffspring sex ratio. Mixed pairs producing an overall surplusof pale and melanic daughters allocated their resources accordingto differential rearing costs and parental quality only. Wesuggest that both strategies of sex ratio allocation togetherwith differences in reproductive success in matched versus mixedpairs may have a balancing effect on the mating pattern betweenplumage morphs and may contribute to the maintenance of thecolor polymorphism in this species.     

Parental investment, sexual selection and sex ratios

Conventional sex roles imply caring females and competitive males. The evolution of sex role divergence is widely attributed to anisogamy initiating a self‐reinforcing process. The initial asymmetry in pre‐mating parental investment (eggs vs. sperm) is assumed to promote even greater divergence in post‐mating parental investment (parental care). But do we really understand the process? Trivers [Sexual Selection and the Descent of Man 1871–1971 (1972), Aldine Press, Chicago] introduced two arguments with a female and male perspective on whether to care for offspring that try to link pre‐mating and post‐mating investment. Here we review their merits and subsequent theoretical developments. The first argument is that females are more committed than males to providing care because they stand to lose a greater initial investment. This, however, commits the ‘Concorde Fallacy’ as optimal decisions should depend on future pay‐offs not past costs. Although the argument can be rephrased in terms of residual reproductive value when past investment affects future pay‐offs, it remains weak. The factors likely to change future pay‐offs seem to work against females providing more care than males. The second argument takes the reasonable premise that anisogamy produces a male‐biased operational sex ratio (OSR) leading to males competing for mates. Male care is then predicted to be less likely to evolve as it consumes resources that could otherwise be used to increase competitiveness. However, given each offspring has precisely two genetic parents (the Fisher condition), a biased OSR generates frequency‐dependent selection, analogous to Fisherian sex ratio selection, that favours increased parental investment by whichever sex faces more intense competition. Sex role divergence is therefore still an evolutionary conundrum. Here we review some possible solutions. Factors that promote conventional sex roles are sexual selection on males (but non‐random variance in male mating success must be high to override the Fisher condition), loss of paternity because of female multiple mating or group spawning and patterns of mortality that generate female‐biased adult sex ratios (ASR). We present an integrative model that shows how these factors interact to generate sex roles. We emphasize the need to distinguish between the ASR and the operational sex ratio (OSR). If mortality is higher when caring than competing this diminishes the likelihood of sex role divergence because this strongly limits the mating success of the earlier deserting sex. We illustrate this in a model where a change in relative mortality rates while caring and competing generates a shift from a mammalian type breeding system (female‐only care, male‐biased OSR and female‐biased ASR) to an avian type system (biparental care and a male‐biased OSR and ASR).     

The mismeasurement of sexual selection

Sexual selection can explain major micro‐ and macro‐evolutionary patterns. Much of current theory predicts that the strength of sexual selection (i) is driven by the relative abundance of males and females prepared to mate (i.e. the operational sex ratio, OSR) and (ii) can be generally estimated by calculating intra‐sexual variation in mating success (e.g. the opportunity for sexual selection, I_s). Here, we demonstrate the problematic nature of these predictions. The OSR and I_s only accurately predict sexual selection under a limited set of circumstances, and more specifically, only when mate monopolization is extremely strong. If mate monopolization is not strong, using OSR or I_s as proxies or measures of sexual selection is expected to produce spurious results that lead to the false conclusion that sexual selection is strong when it is actually weak. These findings call into question the validity of empirical conclusions based on these measures of sexual selection.     

Mating distribution and its temporal dynamics affect operational sex ratio: a simulation study

The present study investigated how variation in mating distribution in time and among males influences the operational sex ratio (OSR) with a simulation inspired by paternally caring fish. Varying (1) the potential reproductive rate of each sex, (2) the mating distribution among males, and (3) the length of male mating phase, we created different mating patterns. In each case, we searched for the adult sex ratio that resulted in an OSR of 50% (where sex-roles switch). This approach enabled a comparison with a previous model. We found that the OSR was influenced by the distribution of matings in time and among males when the male mating phase was limited by a parental phase. Furthermore, the mating dynamics were shaped by the fact that the numbers of males and females and their capacities for collateral investment affected OSR immediately from the start of the reproductive season, whereas their times-out had a delayed effect on OSR.  © 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2006, 89 , 551–559.     

Operational sex ratio influences the opportunity for sexual selection in guppies

The opportunity for sexual selection was greater when the operational sex ratio (OSR) in guppies Poecilia reticulata was biased towards males. This could be due to an increase in both male-male competition and female mate choice under male-biased OSR.     

Operational sex ratio, sexual conflict and the intensity of sexual selection

Modern sexual selection theory indicates that reproductive costs rather than the operational sex ratio predict the intensity of sexual selection. We investigated sexual selection in the polygynandrous common lizard Lacerta vivipara . This species shows male aggression, causing high mating costs for females when adult sex ratios (ASR) are male-biased. We manipulated ASR in 12 experimental populations and quantified the intensity of sexual selection based on the relationship between reproductive success and body size. In sharp contrast to classical sexual selection theory predictions, positive directional sexual selection on male size was stronger and positive directional selection on female size weaker in female-biased populations than in male-biased populations. Thus, consistent with modern theory, directional sexual selection on male size was weaker in populations with higher female mating costs. This suggests that the costs of breeding, but not the operational sex ratio, correctly predicted the strength of sexual selection.     

Operational sex ratio predicts the opportunity and direction of sexual selection across animals

The operational sex ratio (OSR) has long been assumed to be a key ecological factor determining the opportunity and direction of sexual selection. However, recent theoretical work has challenged this view, arguing that a biased OSR does not necessarily result in greater monopolisation of mates and therefore stronger sexual selection in the mate‐limited sex. Hence, the role of the OSR for shaping animal mating systems remains a conundrum in sexual selection research. Here we took a meta‐analytic approach to test whether OSR explains interspecific variation in sexual selection metrics across a broad range of animal taxa. Our results demonstrate that the OSR predicts the opportunity for sexual selection in males and the direction of sexual selection in terms of sex differences in both the opportunity for sexual selection and the Bateman gradient (i.e. the selection differential of mating success), as predicted by classic theory.     

Adult sex ratio,sexual dimorphism and sexual selection in a Mesozoic reptile

The evolutionary history of sexual selection in the geologic past is poorly documented based on quantification, largely because of difficulty in sexing fossil specimens. Even such essential ecological parameters as adult sex ratio (ASR) and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) are rarely quantified, despite their implications for sexual selection. To enable their estimation, we propose a method for unbiased sex identification based on sexual shape dimorphism, using size-independent principal components of phenotypic data. We applied the method to test sexual selection in Keichousaurus hui, a Middle Triassic (about 237 Ma) sauropterygian with an unusually large sample size for a fossil reptile. Keichousaurus hui exhibited SSD biased towards males, as in the majority of extant reptiles, to a minor degree (sexual dimorphism index −0.087). The ASR is about 60% females, suggesting higher mortality of males over females. Both values support sexual selection of males in this species. The method may be applied to other fossil species. We also used the Gompertz allometric equation to study the sexual shape dimorphism of K. hui and found that two sexes had largely homogeneous phenotypes at birth except in the humeral width, contrary to previous suggestions derived from the standard allometric equation.     

The opportunity for sexual selection: not mismeasured, just misunderstood

Evolutionary biologists have developed several indices, such as selection gradients (β) and the opportunity for sexual selection (I_s), to quantify the actual and/or potential strength of sexual selection acting in natural or experimental populations. In a recent paper, Klug et al. (J. Evol. Biol. 23 , 2010, 447) contend that selection gradients are the only legitimate metric for quantifying sexual selection. They argue that I_s and similar mating‐system‐based metrics provide unpredictable results, which may be uncorrelated with selection acting on a trait, and should therefore be abandoned. We find this view short‐sighted and argue that the choice of metric should be governed by the research question at hand. We describe insights that measures such as the opportunity for selection can provide and also argue that Klug et al. have overstated the problems with this approach while glossing over similar issues with the interpretation of selection gradients. While no metric perfectly characterizes sexual selection in all circumstances, thoughtful application of existing measures has been and continues to be informative in evolutionary studies.     

Sex ratio selection and multi-factorial sex determination in the housefly: a dynamic model

Sex determining (SD) mechanisms are highly variable between different taxonomic groups and appear to change relatively quickly during evolution. Sex ratio selection could be a dominant force causing such changes. We investigate theoretically the effect of sex ratio selection on the dynamics of a multi-factorial SD system. The system considered resembles the naturally occurring three-locus system of the housefly, which allows for male heterogamety, female heterogamety and a variety of other mechanisms. Sex ratio selection is modelled by assuming cost differences in the production of sons and daughters, a scenario leading to a strong sex ratio bias in the absence of constraints imposed by the mechanism of sex determination. We show that, despite of the presumed flexibility of the SD system considered, equilibrium sex ratios never deviate strongly from 1 : 1. Even if daughters are very costly, a male-biased sex ratio can never evolve. If sons are more costly, sex ratio can be slightly female biased but even in case of large cost differences the bias is very small (<10% from 1 : 1). Sex ratio selection can lead to a shift in the SD mechanism, but cannot be the sole cause of complete switches from one SD system to another. In fact, more than one locus remains polymorphic at equilibrium. We discuss our results in the context of evolution of the variable SD mechanism found in natural housefly populations.     

Operational sex ratio in newts: field responses and characterization of a constituent chemical cue

Operational sex ratio (OSR) has been traditionally thought ofas a force imposing competition for mates rather than also acue used to regulate the intrasexual competition individualsencounter. To assess whether eastern red-spotted newts, Notophthalmusviridescens, could appropriately compare OSRs, we quantifiedfield responses to traps containing four males, a sexually receptivefemale, four males plus a female, or nothing as a control. Earlyin the breeding season, males from two populations chose competitivemating opportunities over no mating opportunity at all, butgenerally preferred less competitive mating prospects. Laterin the breeding season, as the OSR of newt populations becomesmore male biased, males accordingly increased their acceptanceof intrasexual competition. Females avoided groups of four males,and for both sexes, avoidance of male-biased courting groupsincreased their probability of amplexus courtship. We then isolatedan approximately 33-kD protein from male cloacal glands thatwas used by males to compare OSRs. To our knowledge, this proteinrepresents the first isolated and characterized component ofan olfactory cue used to evaluate OSR. These results supporttwo important principles regarding mating systems: (1) OSR cansomewhat paradoxically be both the source imposing competitionfor mates and the source used to reduce it, and (2) analogousto the sex in short supply often being "choosy" selecting mates,the sex in excess (here, males) appears to be choosy about itsacceptance of intrasexual competition.     

Beyond sex allocation: the role of mating systems in sexual selection in parasitoid wasps

Despite the diverse array of mating systems and life histories which characterise the parasitic Hymenoptera, sexual selection and sexual conflict in this taxon have been somewhat overlooked. For instance, parasitoid mating systems have typically been studied in terms of how mating structure affects sex allocation. In the past decade, however, some studies have sought to address sexual selection in the parasitoid wasps more explicitly and found that, despite the lack of obvious secondary sexual traits, sexual selection has the potential to shape a range of aspects of parasitoid reproductive behaviour and ecology. Moreover, various characteristics fundamental to the parasitoid way of life may provide innovative new ways to investigate different processes of sexual selection. The overall aim of this review therefore is to re‐examine parasitoid biology with sexual selection in mind, for both parasitoid biologists and also researchers interested in sexual selection and the evolution of mating systems more generally. We will consider aspects of particular relevance that have already been well studied including local mating structure, sex allocation and sperm depletion. We go on to review what we already know about sexual selection in the parasitoid wasps and highlight areas which may prove fruitful for further investigation. In particular, sperm depletion and the costs of inbreeding under chromosomal sex determination provide novel opportunities for testing the role of direct and indirect benefits for the evolution of mate choice.     

Color polymorphism and sex ratio distortion in a cichlid fish as an incipient stage in sympatric speciation by sexual selection

We investigated a Lake Victoria cichlid with a complex colour polymorphism that apparently represents one original species and two incipient species, all of which are sympatric. In laboratory breeding experiments we observed sex ratio distortion in certain matings between original and incipient species. Mate choice experiments show that males of the incipient species exhibit mating preferences against the original species, and males and females of the original species exhibit strong mating preferences against the incipient species. Mating preferences might evolve by sex ratio selection to avoid matings with distorted progeny sex ratios. Phenotype frequencies in nature suggest that mating preferences translate into mating frequencies, thus restricting gene flow and exerting disruptive sexual selection between the original and incipient species. The incipient species do not differ in morphology or ecology from the original species, implying that colour polymorphism, associated with sex ratio distortion, can be an incipient stage in sympatric speciation, and that disruption of gene flow can precede ecological differentiation.     

The evolution of obligate sex: the roles of sexual selection and recombination

The evolution of sex is one of the greatest mysteries in evolutionary biology. An even greater mystery is the evolution of obligate sex, particularly when competing with facultative sex and not with complete asexuality. Here, we develop a stochastic simulation of an obligate allele invading a facultative population, where males are subject to sexual selection. We identify a range of parameters where sexual selection can contribute to the evolution of obligate sex: Especially when the cost of sex is low, mutation rate is high, and the facultative individuals do not reproduce sexually very often. The advantage of obligate sex becomes larger in the absence of recombination. Surprisingly, obligate sex can take over even when the population has a lower mean fitness as a result. We show that this is due to the high success of obligate males that can compensate the cost of sex.     

The evolutionary origin of signa in female Lepidoptera: natural and sexual selection hypotheses

Signa are structures of the inner wall of the female corpus bursae (structure where males deposit a spermatophore during copulation) of many Lepidoptera that assist in tearing open spermatophores. In this paper, three hypotheses on the evolutionary origin of signa are proposed. The first hypothesis considers natural selection pressures arising from ecological changes that favor an increase in oviposition rate as the force behind the evolution of signa. The other two hypotheses involve sexual selection. The second hypothesis proposes that sexually antagonistic coevolution is responsible of the evolution of signa: According to this hypothesis, the inverse relation between the length of the female's refractory period and the amount of ejaculate remaining in her corpus bursae, observed in most Lepidoptera studied, selects in males a decreased rate of spermatophore digestion (e.g. a thicker spermatophore envelope or a higher chitin content) that increases the length of the refractory period beyond the female's optimum; in response, females evolved signa as a counteradaptation to restore the female's optimum by increasing the rate of spermatophore digestion. The last hypothesis considers that signa may have evolved as a female device for cryptic choice of males based on the ability of these to influence the length of post-copulatory female refractory period. The different hypotheses make different predictions of the sequence of appearance of specific ecological factors and novel phenotypic traits through evolutionary time. Therefore, testing the relative importance of the hypotheses requires a formal comparative analysis.     

Facultative adjustment of the offspring sex ratio and male attractiveness: a systematic review and meta‐analysis

Females can benefit from mate choice for male traits (e.g. sexual ornaments or body condition) that reliably signal the effect that mating will have on mean offspring fitness. These male‐derived benefits can be due to material and/or genetic effects. The latter include an increase in the attractiveness, hence likely mating success, of sons. Females can potentially enhance any sex‐biased benefits of mating with certain males by adjusting the offspring sex ratio depending on their mate's phenotype. One hypothesis is that females should produce mainly sons when mating with more attractive or higher quality males. Here we perform a meta‐analysis of the empirical literature that has accumulated to test this hypothesis. The mean effect size was small (r = 0.064–0.095; i.e. explaining <1% of variation in offspring sex ratios) but statistically significant in the predicted direction. It was, however, not robust to correction for an apparent publication bias towards significantly positive results. We also examined the strength of the relationship using different indices of male attractiveness/quality that have been invoked by researchers (ornaments, behavioural displays, female preference scores, body condition, male age, body size, and whether a male is a within‐pair or extra‐pair mate). Only ornamentation and body size significantly predicted the proportion of sons produced. We obtained similar results regardless of whether we ran a standard random‐effects meta‐analysis, or a multi‐level, Bayesian model that included a correction for phylogenetic non‐independence. A moderate proportion of the variance in effect sizes (51.6–56.2%) was due to variation that was not attributable to sampling error (i.e. sample size). Much of this non‐sampling error variance was not attributable to phylogenetic effects or high repeatability of effect sizes among species. It was approximately equally attributable to differences (occurring for unknown reasons) in effect sizes among and within studies (25.3, 22.9% of the total variance). There were no significant effects of year of publication or two aspects of study design (experimental/observational or field/laboratory) on reported effect sizes. We discuss various practical reasons and theoretical arguments as to why small effect sizes should be expected, and why there might be relatively high variation among studies. Currently, there are no species where replicated, experimental studies show that mothers adjust the offspring sex ratio in response to a generally preferred male phenotype. Ultimately, we need more experimental studies that test directly whether females produce more sons when mated to relatively more attractive males, and that provide the requisite evidence that their sons have higher mean fitness than their daughters.     

Mechanisms of rapid sympatric speciation by sex reversal and sexual selection in cichlid fish

Mechanisms of speciation in cichlid fish were investigated by analyzing population genetic models of sexual selection on sex-determining genes associated with color polymorphisms. The models are based on a combination of laboratory experiments and field observations on the ecology, male and female mating behavior, and inheritance of sex-determination and color polymorphisms. The models explain why sex-reversal genes that change males into females tend to be X-linked and associated with novel colors, using the hypothesis of restricted recombination on the sex chromosomes, as suggested by previous theory on the evolution of recombination. The models reveal multiple pathways for rapid sympatric speciation through the origin of novel color morphs with strong assortative mating that incorporate both sex-reversal and suppressor genes. Despite the lack of geographic isolation or ecological differentiation, the new species coexists with the ancestral species either temporarily or indefinitely. These results may help to explain different patterns and rates of speciation among groups of cichlids, in particular the explosive diversification of rock-dwelling haplochromine cichlids.