Economic impact of dengue illness and the cost-effectiveness of future vaccination programs in Singapore

Background

Dengue illness causes 50–100 million infections worldwide and threatens 2.5 billion people in the tropical and subtropical regions. Little is known about the disease burden and economic impact of dengue in higher resourced countries or the cost-effectiveness of potential dengue vaccines in such settings.

Methods and Findings

We estimate the direct and indirect costs of dengue from hospitalized and ambulatory cases in Singapore. We consider inter alia the impacts of dengue on the economy using the human-capital and the friction cost methods. Disease burden was estimated using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine program was evaluated. The average economic impact of dengue illness in Singapore from 2000 to 2009 in constant 2010 US$ ranged between $0.85 billion and $1.15 billion, of which control costs constitute 42%–59%. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated an annual average disease burden of 9–14 DALYs per 100 000 habitants, making it comparable to diseases such as hepatitis B or syphilis. The proportion of symptomatic dengue cases detected by the national surveillance system was estimated to be low, and to decrease with age. Under population projections by the United Nations, the price per dose threshold for which vaccines stop being more cost-effective than the current vector control program ranged from $50 for mass vaccination requiring 3 doses and only conferring 10 years of immunity to $300 for vaccination requiring 2 doses and conferring lifetime immunity. The thresholds for these vaccine programs to not be cost-effective for Singapore were $100 and $500 per dose respectively.

Conclusions

Dengue illness presents a serious economic and disease burden in Singapore. Dengue vaccines are expected to be cost-effective if reasonably low prices are adopted and will help to reduce the economic and disease burden of dengue in Singapore substantially.     

Costs of Dengue Control Activities and Hospitalizations in the Public Health Sector during an Epidemic Year in Urban Sri Lanka

Background

Reported as a public health problem since the 1960s in Sri Lanka, dengue has become a high priority disease for public health authorities. The Ministry of Health is responsible for controlling dengue and other disease outbreaks and associated health care. The involvement of large numbers of public health staff in dengue control activities year-round and the provision of free medical care to dengue patients at secondary care hospitals place a formidable financial burden on the public health sector.

Methods

We estimated the public sector costs of dengue control activities and the direct costs of hospitalizations in Colombo, the most heavily urbanized district in Sri Lanka, during the epidemic year of 2012 from the Ministry of Health’s perspective. The financial costs borne by public health agencies and hospitals are collected using cost extraction tools designed specifically for the study and analysed retrospectively using a combination of activity-based and gross costing approaches.

Results

The total cost of dengue control and reported hospitalizations was estimated at US$3.45 million (US$1.50 per capita) in Colombo district in 2012. Personnel costs accounted for the largest shares of the total costs of dengue control activities (79%) and hospitalizations (46%). The results indicated a per capita cost of US$0.42 for dengue control activities. The average costs per hospitalization ranged between US$216–609 for pediatric cases and between US$196–866 for adult cases according to disease severity and treatment setting.

Conclusions

This analysis is a first attempt to assess the economic burden of dengue response in the public health sector in Sri Lanka. Country-specific evidence is needed for setting public health priorities and deciding about the deployment of existing or new technologies. Our results suggest that dengue poses a major economic burden on the public health sector in Sri Lanka.     

P. vivax Malaria and Dengue Fever Co-infection: A Cross-Sectional Study in the Brazilian Amazon

Background

Malaria and dengue are the most prevalent vector-borne diseases worldwide and represent major public health problems. Both are endemic in tropical regions, propitiating co-infection. Only few co-infection cases have been reported around the world, with insufficient data so far to enhance the understanding of the effects of co-infection in the clinical presentation and severity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cross-sectional study was conducted (2009 to 2011) in hospitalized patients with acute febrile syndrome in the Brazilian Amazon. All patients were submitted to thick blood smear and PCR for Plasmodium sp. detection, ELISA, PCR and NS1 tests for dengue, viral hepatitis, HIV and leptospirosis. In total, 1,578 patients were recruited. Among them, 176 (11.1%) presented P. vivax malaria mono-infection, 584 (37%) dengue fever mono-infection, and 44 (2.8%) were co-infected. Co-infected patients had a higher chance of presenting severe disease (vs. dengue mono-infected), deep bleeding (vs. P. vivax mono-infected), hepatomegaly, and jaundice (vs. dengue mono-infected).

Conclusions/Significance

In endemic areas for dengue and malaria, jaundice (in dengue patients) and spontaneous bleeding (in malaria patients) should raise the suspicion of co-infection. Besides, whenever co-infection is confirmed, we recommend careful monitoring for bleeding and hepatic complications, which may result in a higher chance of severity, despite of the fact that no increased fatality rate was seen in this group.     

An outbreak of dengue fever in St. Croix (US Virgin Islands), 2005

Background

Periodic outbreaks of dengue fever occur in the United States Virgin Islands. In June 2005, an outbreak of dengue virus (DENV) serotype-2 with cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) was detected in St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. The objective of this report is to describe this outbreak of DENV-2 and the findings of a case-control study examining risk factors for DHF.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This is the largest dengue outbreak ever recorded in St. Croix, with 331 suspected dengue cases reported island-wide during 2005 (62.2 cases/10,000 population); 54% were hospitalized, 21% had at least one hemorrhagic manifestation, 28% had thrombocytopenia, 5% had DHF and 1 patient died. Eighty-nine laboratory-positive hospitalized patients were identified. Of these, there were 15 (17%) who met the WHO criteria for DHF (cases) and 74 (83%) who did not (controls). The only variable significantly associated with DHF on bivariate or multivariable analysis was age, with an adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.033 (1.003,1.064).

Conclusions/Significance

During this outbreak of DENV-2, a high proportion of cases developed DHF and increasing age was significantly associated with DHF.     

Health and Economic Burden of Obesity in Brazil

Introduction

Higher and lower-middle income countries are increasingly affected by obesity. Obesity-related diseases are placing a substantial health and economic burden on Brazil. Our aim is to measure the future consequences of these trends on the associated disease burden and health care costs.

Method

A previously developed micro-simulation model is used to project the extent of obesity, obesity-related diseases and associated healthcare costs to 2050. In total, thirteen diseases were considered: coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis, and eight cancers. We simulated three hypothetical intervention scenarios: no intervention, 1% and 5% reduction in body mass index (BMI).

Results

In 2010, nearly 57% of the Brazilian male population was overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m²), but the model projects rates as high as 95% by 2050. A slightly less pessimistic picture is predicted for females, increasing from 43% in 2010 to 52% in 2050. Coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, cancers, osteoarthritis and diabetes prevalence cases are projected to at least double by 2050, reaching nearly 34,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 (per 100,000). 1% and 5% reduction in mean BMI will save over 800 prevalence cases and nearly 3,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 respectively (per 100,000). The health care costs will double from 2010 ($5.8 billion) in 2050 alone ($10.1 billion). Over 40 years costs will reach $330 billion. However, with effective interventions the costs can be reduced to $302 billion by 1% and to $273 billion by 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population.

Conclusion

Obesity rates are rapidly increasing creating a high burden of disease and associated costs. However, an effective intervention to decrease obesity by just 1% will substantially reduce obesity burden and will have a significant effect on health care expenditure.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Buprenorphine and Naltrexone Treatments for Heroin Dependence in Malaysia

Aims

To aid public health policymaking, we studied the cost-effectiveness of buprenorphine, naltrexone, and placebo interventions for heroin dependence in Malaysia.

Design

We estimated the cost-effectiveness ratios of three treatments for heroin dependence. We used a microcosting methodology to determine fixed, variable, and societal costs of each intervention. Cost data were collected from investigators, staff, and project records on the number and type of resources used and unit costs; societal costs for participants’ time were estimated using Malaysia’s minimum wage. Costs were estimated from a provider and societal perspective and reported in 2004 US dollars.

Setting

Muar, Malaysia.

Participants

126 patients enrolled in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial in Malaysia (2003–2005) receiving counseling and buprenorphine, naltrexone, or placebo for treatment of heroin dependence.

Measurements

Primary outcome measures included days in treatment, maximum consecutive days of heroin abstinence, days to first heroin use, and days to heroin relapse. Secondary outcome measures included treatment retention, injection drug use, illicit opiate use, AIDS Risk Inventory total score, and drug risk and sex risk subscores.

Findings

Buprenorphine was more effective and more costly than naltrexone for all primary and most secondary outcomes. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were below $50 for primary outcomes, mostly below $350 for secondary outcomes. Naltrexone was dominated by placebo for all secondary outcomes at almost all endpoints. Incremental treatment costs were driven mainly by medication costs, especially the price of buprenorphine.

Conclusions

Buprenorphine appears to be a cost-effective alternative to naltrexone that might enhance economic productivity and reduce drug use over a longer term.     

Dengue Surveillance in Veterans Affairs Healthcare Facilities, 2007–2010

Background

Although dengue is endemic in Puerto Rico (PR), 2007 and 2010 were recognized as epidemic years. In the continental United States (US), outside of the Texas-Mexico border, there had not been a dengue outbreak since 1946 until dengue re-emerged in Key West, Florida (FL), in 2009–2010. The objective of this study was to use electronic and manual surveillance systems to identify dengue cases in Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare facilities and then to clinically compare dengue cases in Veterans presenting for care in PR and in FL.

Methodology

Outpatient encounters from 1/2007–12/2010 and inpatient admissions (only available from 10/2009–12/2010) with dengue diagnostic codes at all VA facilities were identified using VA''s Electronic Surveillance System for Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics (ESSENCE). Additional case sources included VA data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention BioSense and VA infection preventionists. Case reviews were performed. Categorical data was compared using Mantel-Haenszel or Fisher Exact tests and continuous variables using t-tests. Dengue case residence was mapped.

Findings

Two hundred eighty-eight and 21 PR and FL dengue cases respectively were identified. Of 21 FL cases, 12 were exposed in Key West and 9 were imported. During epidemic years, FL cases had significantly increased dengue testing and intensive care admissions, but lower hospitalization rates and headache or eye pain symptoms compared to PR cases. There were no significant differences in clinical symptoms, laboratory abnormalities or outcomes between epidemic and non-epidemic year cases in FL and PR. Confirmed/probable cases were significantly more likely to be hospitalized and have thrombocytopenia or leukopenia compared to suspected cases.

Conclusions

Dengue re-introduction in the continental US warrants increased dengue surveillance and education in VA. Throughout VA, under-testing of suspected cases highlights the need to emphasize use of diagnostic testing to better understand the magnitude of dengue among Veterans.     

Risk Factors for Fatality among Confirmed Adult Dengue Inpatients in Singapore: A Matched Case-Control Study

Objectives

To identify demographic, clinical and laboratory risk factors for death due to dengue fever in adult patients in Singapore.

Methods

Multi-center retrospective study of hospitalized adult patients with confirmed dengue fever in Singapore between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2008. Non-fatal controls were selected by matching age and year of infection with fatal cases. World Health Organization 1997, 2009 criteria were applied to define dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), warning signs and severe dengue. Statistical significance was assessed by conditional logistic regression modeling.

Results

Significantly more fatal cases than matched controls had pre-existing co-morbid conditions, and presented with abdominal pain/tenderness. Median pulse rates were significantly higher while myalgia was significantly less frequent in cases. . Fatal cases also had higher leucocyte counts, platelet counts, serum sodium, potassium, urea, creatine and bilirubin levels on admission compared to controls. There was no statistical significant difference between the prevalence of DHF and hematocrit level among cases and controls. Multivariate analysis showed myalgia and leucocyte count at presentation were independent predictors of fatality (adjusted odds ratios 0.09 and 2.94 respectively). None of the controls was admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) or given blood transfusion, while 71.4% and 28.6% of fatal cases received ICU admission and blood transfusion.

Conclusions

Absence of myalgia and leucocytosis on admission were independently associated with fatality in our matched case-control study. Fatalities were also commonly associated with co-morbidities and clinicians should be alarmed if dengue patients fulfilled severe dengue case definition on admission.     

Laboratory Surveillance of Dengue in Rio Grande do Sul,Brazil, from 2007 to 2013

Background

According to official records, dengue was introduced in Brazil in the 80''s; since then several epidemics have occurred. Meanwhile, in Rio Grande do Sul (RS, Southern Brazil) the first autochthonous case occurred only in 2007.

Methodology and Principal Findings

In this study we report laboratory surveillance of dengue cases and seasonality of positive cases, describe serotypes and characterize the epidemiological pattern of dengue in RS from 2007 to 2013. A total of 9,779 serum samples from patients with suspected dengue fever were collected and submitted to molecular and/or serological analyses for dengue virus identification and serotyping, based on viral isolation, NS1 antigen detection and qRT-PCR, or Dengue IgM capture ELISA and MAC-ELISA. The first autochthonous dengue case in RS was confirmed in 2007 (DENV-3). While in 2008 and 2009 only imported cases were registered, autochthonous infection waves have been occurring since 2010. The highest number of dengue infections occurred in 2010, with DENV-1 and DENV-2 outbreaks in Northwestern RS. In 2011, another DENV-1 and DENV-2 outbreak occurred in the Northwestern region; moreover, DENV-4 was detected in travelers. In 2012, DENV-1 and DENV-4 co-circulated. DENV-2 circulation was only detected again in 2013, in high frequency (56.7%), co-circulating with DENV-4 (35%). Most infections occur in adults during summer. Differences in prevalence between genders were observed in 2007 (60% females), 2008 (60.8% males) and 2009 (77.5% males).

Conclusions

According to results of dengue surveillance, there was an increase in the number of dengue cases in RS and of cities infested with Aedes aegypti, possibly as a consequence of introduction of new serotypes and the difficulty of health programs to control the vector.     

Modelling the costs and effects of selective and universal hospital admission screening for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Background

Screening at hospital admission for carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been proposed as a strategy to reduce nosocomial infections. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term costs and health benefits of selective and universal screening for MRSA at hospital admission, using both PCR-based and chromogenic media-based tests in various settings.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A simulation model of MRSA transmission was used to determine costs and effects over 15 years from a US healthcare perspective. We compared admission screening together with isolation of identified carriers against a baseline policy without screening or isolation. Strategies included selective screening of high risk patients or universal admission screening, with PCR-based or chromogenic media-based tests, in medium (5%) or high nosocomial prevalence (15%) settings. The costs of screening and isolation per averted MRSA infection were lowest using selective chromogenic-based screening in high and medium prevalence settings, at $4,100 and $10,300, respectively. Replacing the chromogenic-based test with a PCR-based test costs $13,000 and $36,200 per additional infection averted, and subsequent extension to universal screening with PCR would cost $131,000 and $232,700 per additional infection averted, in high and medium prevalence settings respectively. Assuming $17,645 benefit per infection averted, the most cost-saving strategies in high and medium prevalence settings were selective screening with PCR and selective screening with chromogenic, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

Admission screening costs $4,100–$21,200 per infection averted, depending on strategy and setting. Including financial benefits from averted infections, screening could well be cost saving.     

Impact of Mental Health Visits on Healthcare Cost in Patients with Diabetes and Comorbid Mental Health Disorders

Purpose

To assess the impact of mental health visits (MHV) on the cost of care for Veterans with diabetes and comorbid mental health conditions.

Methods

A national cohort of 120,852 Veterans with diabetes and at least one mental health diagnosis (i.e., substance abuse, depression or psychoses) in 2002 was followed through 2006. Outcomes were pharmacy, inpatient and outpatient costs in 2012 dollars.

Results

Least-square covariate adjusted estimates from the joint model of total VA costs of the number of MHV using December 31, 2012 value dollars indicate that relative to those with fewer MHV, those with 3+ MHV had the lowest mean inpatient cost ($21,406), but the highest mean outpatient and pharmacy cost ($9,727 and $2,015, respectively). If all Veterans who received zero MHV actually received 3+ MHV, we estimate through simulated scenarios that between $32,272,329 and $181,460,247 in inpatient costs would be saved. However, these savings would be offset by additional expenditures of between $1,166,017,547 and $1,166,224,787 in outpatient costs and between $151,604,683 and $161,439,632 in pharmacy costs.

Conclusions

Among Veterans with diabetes and comorbid mental disorders having three or more mental health visits is associated with marginally decreased inpatient cost, but these potential savings seem to be offset by increased outpatient and pharmacy costs.     

Hyperferritinaemia in Dengue Virus Infected Patients Is Associated with Immune Activation and Coagulation Disturbances

Background

During a dengue outbreak on the Caribbean island Aruba, highly elevated levels of ferritin were detected in dengue virus infected patients. Ferritin is an acute-phase reactant and hyperferritinaemia is a hallmark of diseases caused by extensive immune activation, such as haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. The aim of this study was to investigate whether hyperferritinaemia in dengue patients was associated with clinical markers of extensive immune activation and coagulation disturbances.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Levels of ferritin, standard laboratory markers, sIL-2R, IL-18 and coagulation and fibrinolytic markers were determined in samples from patients with uncomplicated dengue in Aruba. Levels of ferritin were significantly increased in dengue patients compared to patients with other febrile illnesses. Moreover, levels of ferritin associated significantly with the occurrence of viraemia. Hyperferritinaemia was also significantly associated with thrombocytopenia, elevated liver enzymes and coagulation disturbances. The results were validated in a cohort of dengue virus infected patients in Brazil. In this cohort levels of ferritin and cytokine profiles were determined. Increased levels of ferritin in dengue virus infected patients in Brazil were associated with disease severity and a pro-inflammatory cytokine profile.

Conclusions/Significance

Altogether, we provide evidence that ferritin can be used as a clinical marker to discriminate between dengue and other febrile illnesses. The occurrence of hyperferritinaemia in dengue virus infected patients is indicative for highly active disease resulting in immune activation and coagulation disturbances. Therefore, we recommend that patients with hyperferritinaemia are monitored carefully.     

Can Broader Diffusion of Value-Based Insurance Design Increase Benefits from US Health Care without Increasing Costs? Evidence from a Computer Simulation Model

Background

Evidence suggests that cost sharing (i.e.,copayments and deductibles) decreases health expenditures but also reduces essential care. Value-based insurance design (VBID) has been proposed to encourage essential care while controlling health expenditures. Our objective was to estimate the impact of broader diffusion of VBID on US health care benefits and costs.

Methods and Findings

We used a published computer simulation of costs and life expectancy gains from US health care to estimate the impact of broader diffusion of VBID. Two scenarios were analyzed: (1) applying VBID solely to pharmacy benefits and (2) applying VBID to both pharmacy benefits and other health care services (e.g., devices). We assumed that cost sharing would be eliminated for high-value services (<$100,000 per life-year), would remain unchanged for intermediate- or unknown-value services ($100,000–$300,000 per life-year or unknown), and would be increased for low-value services (>$300,000 per life-year). All costs are provided in 2003 US dollars. Our simulation estimated that approximately 60% of health expenditures in the US are spent on low-value services, 20% are spent on intermediate-value services, and 20% are spent on high-value services. Correspondingly, the vast majority (80%) of health expenditures would have cost sharing that is impacted by VBID. With prevailing patterns of cost sharing, health care conferred 4.70 life-years at a per-capita annual expenditure of US$5,688. Broader diffusion of VBID to pharmaceuticals increased the benefit conferred by health care by 0.03 to 0.05 additional life-years, without increasing costs and without increasing out-of-pocket payments. Broader diffusion of VBID to other health care services could increase the benefit conferred by health care by 0.24 to 0.44 additional life-years, also without increasing costs and without increasing overall out-of-pocket payments. Among those without health insurance, using cost saving from VBID to subsidize insurance coverage would increase the benefit conferred by health care by 1.21 life-years, a 31% increase.

Conclusion

Broader diffusion of VBID may amplify benefits from US health care without increasing health expenditures. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Characterization of Treatment Resistant Depression Episodes in a Cohort of Patients from a US Commercial Claims Database

Context

Treatment Resistant Depression (TRD) is a significant and burdensome health concern.

Objective

To characterize, compare and understand the difference between TRD and non-TRD patients and episodes in respect of their episode duration, treatment patterns and healthcare resource utilization.

Design and Setting

Patients between 18 and 64 years with a new diagnosis of major depressive disorder (MDD) and without a previous or comorbid diagnosis of schizophrenia or bipolar disease were included from PharMetrics Integrated Database, a claims database of commercial insurers in the US. Episodes of these patients in which there were at least two distinct failed regimens involving antidepressants and antipsychotics were classified as TRD.

Patients

82,742 MDD patients were included in the analysis; of these patients, 125,172 episodes were identified (47,654 of these were drug-treated episodes).

Main Outcome Measures

Comparison between TRD and non-TRD episodes in terms of their duration, number and duration of lines of treatment, comorbidities, and medical resource utilization.

Results

Of the treated episodes, 6.6% (N = 3,134) met the criteria for TRD. The median time to an episode becoming TRD was approximately one year. The mean duration of a TRD episode was 1,004 days (vs. 452 days for a non-TRD episode). More than 75% of TRD episodes had at least four lines of therapy; half of the treatment regimens included a combination of drugs. Average hospitalization costs were higher for TRD than non-TRD episodes: $6,464 vs. $1,734, as were all other health care utilization costs.

Conclusions

While this study was limited to relatively young and commercially covered patients, used a rigorous definition of TRD and did not analyze for cause or consequence, the results highlight high unmet medical need and burden of TRD on patients and health care resources.     

Demographic and Clinical Features of Dengue Fever in Pakistan from 2003–2007: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Demographic features of dengue fever have changed tremendously in Pakistan over the past two decades. Small scale studies from all over the country have reported different aspects of individual outbreaks during this time. However, there is scarcity of data looking at the overall trend of dengue virus infection in the country. In this study, we examined annual trends, seasonality, and clinical features of dengue fever in the Pakistani population.

Methods

Demographic information and dengue IgM status of all patients tested for dengue IgM antibody at Aga Khan University Hospital from January 2003 to December 2007 were analyzed to look for trends of IgM-positive cases in Pakistan. In addition, clinical and biochemical parameters were abstracted retrospectively from medical records of all patients hospitalized with IgM-proven dengue fever between January 2006 and December 2007. These patients were categorized into dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever according to the WHO severity grading scale.

Results

Out of a total of 15040 patients (63.2% male and 36.8% female), 3952 (26.3%) tested positive for dengue IgM antibody. 209 IgM proven dengue patients were hospitalized during the study period. During 2003, IgM positive cases were seen only during the months of July-December. In contrast, such cases were detected throughout the year from the 2004–2007. The median age of IgM positive patients decreased every year from 32.0 years in 2003 to 24.0 years in 2007 (p<0.001). Among hospitalized patients, nausea was the most common presenting feature found in 124/209 (59.3%) patients. Children presented with a higher median body temperature than adults (p = 0.010). In addition, neutropenia was seen more commonly in children while raised serum ALT levels were seen more commonly in adults (both p = 0.006). While a low total white cell count was more common in patients with dengue fever as compared to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (p = 0.020), neutropenia (p = 0.019), monocytosis (p = 0.001) and raised serum ALT level (p = 0.005) were observed more commonly in the latter group.

Conclusions

Dengue virus is now endemic in Pakistan, circulating throughout the year with a peak incidence in the post monsoon period. Median age of dengue patients has decreased and younger patients may be more susceptible. Total and differential leukocyte counts may help identify patients at risk of hemorrhage.     

Will Dengue Vaccines Be Used in the Public Sector and if so,How? Findings from an 8-country Survey of Policymakers and Opinion Leaders

Background

A face-to-face survey of 158 policymakers and other influential professionals was conducted in eight dengue-endemic countries in Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam) and Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Nicaragua) to provide an indication of the potential demand for dengue vaccination in endemic countries, and to anticipate their research and other requirements in order to make decisions about the introduction of dengue vaccines. The study took place in anticipation of the licensure of the first dengue vaccine in the next several years.

Methods/Principal Findings

Semi-structured interviews were conducted on an individual or small group basis with government health officials, research scientists, medical association officers, vaccine producers, local-level health authorities, and others considered to have a role in influencing decisions about dengue control and vaccines. Most informants across countries considered dengue a priority disease and expressed interest in the public sector use of dengue vaccines, with a major driver being the political pressure from the public and the medical community to control the disease. There was interest in a vaccine that protects children as young as possible and that can fit into existing childhood immunization schedules. Dengue vaccination in most countries surveyed will likely be targeted to high-risk areas and begin with routine immunization of infants and young children, followed by catch-up campaigns for older age groups, as funding permits. Key data requirements for decision-making were additional local dengue surveillance data, vaccine cost-effectiveness estimates, post-marketing safety surveillance data and, in some countries vaccine safety and immunogenicity data in the local population.

Conclusions/Significance

The lookout for the public sector use of dengue vaccines in the eight countries appears quite favorable. Major determinants of whether and when countries will introduce dengue vaccines include whether WHO recommends the vaccines, their price, the availability of external financing for lower income countries, and whether they can be incorporated into countries'' routine immunization schedules.     

Predictive Tools for Severe Dengue Conforming to World Health Organization 2009 Criteria

Background

Dengue causes 50 million infections per year, posing a large disease and economic burden in tropical and subtropical regions. Only a proportion of dengue cases require hospitalization, and predictive tools to triage dengue patients at greater risk of complications may optimize usage of limited healthcare resources. For severe dengue (SD), proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 dengue guidelines, predictive tools are lacking.

Methods

We undertook a retrospective study of adult dengue patients in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, from 2006 to 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables at presentation from dengue polymerase chain reaction-positive and serology-positive patients were used to predict the development of SD after hospitalization using generalized linear models (GLMs).

Principal findings

Predictive tools compatible with well-resourced and resource-limited settings – not requiring laboratory measurements – performed acceptably with optimism-corrected specificities of 29% and 27% respectively for 90% sensitivity. Higher risk of severe dengue (SD) was associated with female gender, lower than normal hematocrit level, abdominal distension, vomiting and fever on admission. Lower risk of SD was associated with more years of age (in a cohort with an interquartile range of 27–47 years of age), leucopenia and fever duration on admission. Among the warning signs proposed by WHO 2009, we found support for abdominal pain or tenderness and vomiting as predictors of combined forms of SD.

Conclusions

The application of these predictive tools in the clinical setting may reduce unnecessary admissions by 19% allowing the allocation of scarce public health resources to patients according to the severity of outcomes.     

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Smear-Positive Tuberculosis Treatment by Health Extension Workers in Southern Ethiopia: A Community Randomized Trial

by HEWs in the health posts and general health workers at health facility were compared along a community-randomized trial. Costs were analysed from societal perspective in 2007 in US $ using standard methods. We prospectively enrolled smear positive patients, and calculated cost-effectiveness as the cost per patient successfully treated. The total cost for each successfully treated smear-positive patient was higher in health facility ($158.9) compared with community ($61.7). Community-based treatment reduced the total, patient and caregiver cost by 61.2%, 68.1% and 79.8%, respectively. Involving HEWs added a total cost of $8.80 (14.3% of total cost) on health service per patient treated in the community.

Conclusions/Significance

Community-based treatment by HEWs costs only 39% of what treatment by general health workers costs for similar outcomes. Involving HEWs in TB treatment is a cost effective treatment alternative to the health service, to the patients and the family. There is an economic and public health reason to consider involving HEWs in TB treatment in Ethiopia. However, community-based treatment requires initial investment to start its implementation, training and supervision.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00803322","term_id":"NCT00803322"}}NCT00803322     

Diagnostic Accuracy of NS1 ELISA and Lateral Flow Rapid Tests for Dengue Sensitivity,Specificity and Relationship to Viraemia and Antibody Responses

Background

Dengue is a public health problem in many countries. Rapid diagnosis of dengue can assist patient triage and management. Detection of the dengue viral protein, NS1, represents a new approach to dengue diagnosis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The sensitivity and specificity of the Platelia NS1 ELISA assay and an NS1 lateral flow rapid test (LFRT) were compared against a gold standard reference diagnostic algorithm in 138 Vietnamese children and adults. Overall, the Platelia NS1 ELISA was modestly more sensitive (82%) than the NS1 LFRT (72%) in confirmed dengue cases. Both ELISA and LFRT assays were more sensitive for primary than secondary dengue, and for specimens collected within 3 days of illness onset relative to later time points. The presence of measurable DENV-reactive IgG and to a lesser extent IgM in the test sample was associated with a significantly lower rate of NS1 detection in both assays. NS1 positivity was associated with the underlying viraemia, as NS1-positive samples had a significantly higher viraemia than NS1-negative samples matched for duration of illness. The Platelia and NS1 LFRT were 100% specific, being negative in all febrile patients without evidence of recent dengue, as well as in patients with enteric fever, malaria, Japanese encephalitis and leptospirosis.

Conclusions/Significance

Collectively, these data suggest NS1 assays deserve inclusion in the diagnostic evaluation of dengue patients, but with due consideration for the limitations in patients who present late in their illness or have a concomitant humoral immune response.