Comparison of Methods for Correction of Mortality Estimates for Loss to Follow-Up after ART Initiation: A Case of the Infectious Diseases Institute,Uganda

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, a large proportion of HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are lost to follow-up, some of whom are dead. The objective of this study was to validate methods used to correct mortality estimates for loss-to-follow-up using a cohort with complete death ascertainment.

Methods

Routinely collected data from HIV patients initiating first line antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) (Routine Cohort) was used. Three methods to estimate mortality after initiation were: 1) standard Kaplan-Meier estimation (uncorrected method) that uses passively observed data; 2) double-sampling methods by Frangakis and Rubin (F&R) where deaths obtained from patient tracing studies are given a higher weight than those passively ascertained; 3) Nomogram proposed by Egger et al. Corrected mortality estimates in the Routine Cohort, were compared with the estimates from the IDI research observational cohort (Research Cohort), which was used as the “gold-standard”.

Results

We included 5,633 patients from the Routine Cohort and 559 from the Research Cohort. Uncorrected mortality estimates (95% confidence interval [1]) in the Routine Cohort at 1, 2 and 3 years were 5.5% (4.9%–6.3%), 6.6% (5.9%–7.5%) and 7.4% (6.5%–8.5%), respectively. The F&R corrected estimates at 1, 2 and 3 years were 11.2% (5.8%–21.2%), 15.8% (9.9%–24.8%) and 18.5% (12.3% –27.2%) respectively. The estimates obtained from the Research Cohort were 15.6% (12.8%–18.9%), 17.5% (14.6%–21.0%) and 19.0% (15.3%–21.9%) at 1, 2 and 3 years respectively. Using the nomogram method in the Routine Cohort, the corrected programme-level mortality estimate in year 1 was 11.9% (8.0%–15.7%).

Conclusion

Mortality adjustments provided by the F&R and nomogram methods are adequate and should be employed to correct mortality for loss-to-follow-up in large HIV care centres in Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Are Women Deciding against Home Births in Low and Middle Income Countries?

Background

Although there is evidence to tracking progress towards facility births within the UN Millennium Development Goals framework, we do not know whether women are deciding against home birth over their reproductive lives. Using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from 44 countries, this study aims to investigate the patterns and shifts in childbirth locations and to determine whether these shifts are in favour of home or health settings.

Methods and Findings

The analyses considered 108,777 women who had at least two births in the five years preceding the most recent DHS over the period 2000–2010. The vast majority of women opted for the same place of childbirth for their successive births. However, about 14% did switch their place and not all these decisions favoured health facility over home setting. In 24 of the 44 countries analysed, a higher proportion of women switched from a health facility to home. Multilevel regression analyses show significantly higher odds of switching from home to a facility for high parity women, those with frequent antenatal visits and more wealth. However, in countries with high infant mortality rates, low parity women had an increased probability of switching from home to a health facility.

Conclusions

There is clear evidence that women do change their childbirth locations over successive births in low and middle income countries. After two decades of efforts to improve maternal health, it might be expected that a higher proportion of women will be deciding against home births in favour of facility births. The results from this analysis show that is not the case.     

Care-Seeking and Management of Common Childhood Illnesses in Tanzania – Results from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey

Background

Malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea continue to kill millions of children in Africa despite the available and effective treatments. Correct diagnosis and prompt treatment with effective drugs at the first option consulted for child care is crucial for preventing severe disease and death from these illnesses. Using the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey data, the present study aims to assess care-seeking and management of suspected malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea at various health care facilities in Tanzania.

Methods

We analyzed data for 8176 children born within a 5 years period preceding the survey.The information was collected by interviewing 5519 women aged 15–49 years in 10,300 households selected from 475 sample points throughout Tanzania.

Results

The most common first option for child care was PHC facilities (54.8%), followed by private pharmacies (23.4%). These were more commonly utilized in rural compared to urban areas: 61.2% versus 34.5% for PHC facilities, and 26.5% versus 17.7% for pharmacies. Women in urban areas and those with higher level of education more commonly utilized higher level hospitals and private facilities as their first option for child care. Only one in four children with fever had received a blood test during the illness with lowest proportion being reported among children solely attended at PHC facilities. Use of abandoned antimalarial drugs for the treatment of suspected malaria was also observed in public health facilities and antibiotics use for diarrhoea treatment was high (49.0%).

Conclusions

PHC facilities and pharmacies most commonly provided sub-optimal care. These facilities were more commonly utilized as the first option for child care in rural areas and among the poor and non-educated families. These are groups with the highest child mortality, which calls for interventions’ targeting improvement of care at these facilities to further reduce child mortality from treatable illnesses in Tanzania.     

Shared Sanitation versus Individual Household Latrines: A Systematic Review of Health Outcomes

Background

More than 761 million people rely on shared sanitation facilities. These have historically been excluded from international sanitation targets, regardless of the service level, due to concerns about acceptability, hygiene and access. In connection with a proposed change in such policy, we undertook this review to identify and summarize existing evidence that compares health outcomes associated with shared sanitation versus individual household latrines.

Methods and Findings

Shared sanitation included any type of facilities intended for the containment of human faeces and used by more than one household, but excluded public facilities. Health outcomes included diarrhoea, helminth infections, enteric fevers, other faecal-oral diseases, trachoma and adverse maternal or birth outcomes. Studies were included regardless of design, location, language or publication status. Studies were assessed for methodological quality using the STROBE guidelines.Twenty-two studies conducted in 21 countries met the inclusion criteria. Studies show a pattern of increased risk of adverse health outcomes associated with shared sanitation compared to individual household latrines. A meta-analysis of 12 studies reporting on diarrhoea found increased odds of disease associated with reliance on shared sanitation (odds ratio (OR) 1.44, 95% CI: 1.18–1.76).

Conclusion

Evidence to date does not support a change of existing policy of excluding shared sanitation from the definition of improved sanitation used in international monitoring and targets. However, such evidence is limited, does not adequately address likely confounding, and does not identify potentially important distinctions among types of shared facilities. As reliance on shared sanitation is increasing, further research is necessary to determine the circumstances, if any, under which shared sanitation can offer a safe, appropriate and acceptable alternative to individual household latrines.     

Incidence of Induced Abortion and Post-Abortion Care in Tanzania

Background

Tanzania has one of the highest maternal mortality ratios in the world, and unsafe abortion is one of its leading causes. Yet little is known about its incidence.

Objectives

To provide the first ever estimates of the incidence of unsafe abortion in Tanzania, at the national level and for each of the 8 geopolitical zones (7 in Mainland plus Zanzibar).

Methods

A nationally representative survey of health facilities was conducted to determine the number of induced abortion complications treated in facilities. A survey of experts on abortion was conducted to estimate the likelihood of women experiencing complications and obtaining treatment. These surveys were complemented with population and fertility data to obtain abortion numbers, rates and ratios, using the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology.

Results

In Tanzania, women obtained just over 405,000 induced abortions in 2013, for a national rate of 36 abortions per 1,000 women age 15–49 and a ratio of 21 abortions per 100 live births. For each woman treated in a facility for induced abortion complications, 6 times as many women had an abortion but did not receive care. Abortion rates vary widely by zone, from 10.7 in Zanzibar to 50.7 in the Lake zone.

Conclusions

The abortion rate is similar to that of other countries in the region. Variations by zone are explained mainly by differences in fertility and contraceptive prevalence. Measures to reduce the incidence of unsafe abortion and associated maternal mortality include expanding access to post-abortion care and contraceptive services to prevent unintended pregnancies.     

Population-Level Impact of Same-Day Microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF for Tuberculosis Diagnosis in Africa

Objective

To compare the population-level impact of two World Health Organization-endorsed strategies for improving the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB): same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid, USA).

Methods

We created a compartmental transmission model of TB in a representative African community, fit to the regional incidence and mortality of TB and HIV. We compared the population-level reduction in TB burden over ten years achievable with implementation over two years of same-day microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF testing, and the combination of both approaches.

Findings

Same-day microscopy averted an estimated 11.0% of TB incidence over ten years (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3.3%–22.5%), and prevented 11.8% of all TB deaths (95% UR: 7.7%–27.1%). Scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF to all centralized laboratories to achieve 75% population coverage had similar impact on incidence (9.3% reduction, 95% UR: 1.9%–21.5%) and greater effect on mortality (23.8% reduction, 95% UR: 8.6%–33.4%). Combining the two strategies (i.e., same-day microscopy plus Xpert MTB/RIF) generated synergistic effects: an 18.7% reduction in incidence (95% UR: 5.6%–39.2%) and 33.1% reduction in TB mortality (95% UR: 18.1%–50.2%). By the end of year ten, combining same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF could reduce annual TB mortality by 44% relative to the current standard of care.

Conclusion

Scaling up novel diagnostic tests for TB and optimizing existing ones are complementary strategies that, when combined, may have substantial impact on TB epidemics in Africa.     

Quantifying the burden of rhodesiense sleeping sickness in Urambo District, Tanzania

Background

Human African trypanosomiasis is a severely neglected vector-borne disease that is always fatal if untreated. In Tanzania it is highly focalised and of major socio-economic and public health importance in affected communities.

Objectives

This study aimed to estimate the public health burden of rhodesiense HAT in terms of DALYs and financial costs in a highly disease endemic area of Tanzania using hospital records.

Materials and Methods

Data was obtained from 143 patients admitted in 2004 for treatment for HAT at Kaliua Health Centre, Urambo District. The direct medical and other indirect costs incurred by individual patients and by the health services were calculated. DALYs were estimated using methods recommended by the Global Burden of Disease Project as well as those used in previous rhodesiense HAT estimates assuming HAT under reporting of 45%, a figure specific for Tanzania.

Results

The DALY estimate for HAT in Urambo District with and without age-weighting were 215.7 (95% CI: 155.3–287.5) and 281.6 (95% CI: 209.1–362.6) respectively. When 45% under-reporting was included, the results were 622.5 (95% CI: 155.3–1098.9) and 978.9 (95% CI: 201.1–1870.8) respectively. The costs of treating 143 patients in terms of admission costs, diagnosis, hospitalization and sleeping sickness drugs were estimated at US$ 15,514, of which patients themselves paid US$ 3,673 and the health services US$ 11,841. The burden in terms of indirect non-medical costs for the 143 patients was estimated at US$ 9,781.

Conclusions

This study shows that HAT imposes a considerable burden on affected rural communities in Tanzania and stresses the urgent need for location- and disease-specific burden estimates tailored to particular rural settings in countries like Tanzania where a considerable number of infectious diseases are prevalent and, due to their focal nature, are often concentrated in certain locations where they impose an especially high burden.     

Association of Antenatal Depression with Adverse Consequences for the Mother and Newborn in Rural Ghana: Findings from the DON Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Whilst there is compelling evidence of an almost 2-fold increased risk of still births, and suggestive evidence of increased mortality among offspring of mothers with psychotic disorders, only three studies have addressed the role of antenatal depression (AND) on survival of the baby. We examined these associations in a large cohort of pregnant women in Ghana.

Methods

A Cohort study nested within 4-weekly surveillance of all women of reproductive age to identify pregnancies and collect data on births and deaths in the Kintampo Health Research Centre study area of Ghana. Women were screened for AND using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) to ascertain DSM-IV major or minor depression. Outcomes were adverse birth outcomes, maternal/infant morbidity, and uptake of key newborn care practices, examined using logistic regression; effect sizes reported as relative risks with 95% confidence intervals.

Results

20679 (89.6%) pregnant women completed the PHQ-9. The prevalence of AND was 9.9% (n = 2032) (95% confidence interval 9.4%–10.2%). AND was associated with: prolonged labour (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.02–1.53); peripartum complications (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.07–1.15);postpartum complications (RR 1.27, 96% CI 1.21–1.34); non-vaginal delivery (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02–1.40); newborn illness (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.16–1.99); and bed net use during pregnancy (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.98), but not neonatal deaths, still births, low birth weight, immediate breast feeding initiation, or exclusive breastfeeding. AND was marginally associated with preterm births (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.98–1.76).

Conclusion

This paper has contributed important evidence on the role of antenatal depression as a potential contributor to maternal and infant morbidity. Non-pharmacological treatments anchored on primary care delivery structures are recommended as an immediate step. We further recommend that trials are designed to assess if treating antenatal depression in conjunction with improving the quality of obstetric care results in improved maternal and newborn outcomes.     

The Effect of India's Total Sanitation Campaign on Defecation Behaviors and Child Health in Rural Madhya Pradesh: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Poor sanitation is thought to be a major cause of enteric infections among young children. However, there are no previously published randomized trials to measure the health impacts of large-scale sanitation programs. India''s Total Sanitation Campaign (TSC) is one such program that seeks to end the practice of open defecation by changing social norms and behaviors, and providing technical support and financial subsidies. The objective of this study was to measure the effect of the TSC implemented with capacity building support from the World Bank''s Water and Sanitation Program in Madhya Pradesh on availability of individual household latrines (IHLs), defecation behaviors, and child health (diarrhea, highly credible gastrointestinal illness [HCGI], parasitic infections, anemia, growth).

Methods and Findings

We conducted a cluster-randomized, controlled trial in 80 rural villages. Field staff collected baseline measures of sanitation conditions, behaviors, and child health (May–July 2009), and revisited households 21 months later (February–April 2011) after the program was delivered. The study enrolled a random sample of 5,209 children <5 years old from 3,039 households that had at least one child <24 months at the beginning of the study. A random subsample of 1,150 children <24 months at enrollment were tested for soil transmitted helminth and protozoan infections in stool. The randomization successfully balanced intervention and control groups, and we estimated differences between groups in an intention to treat analysis. The intervention increased percentage of households in a village with improved sanitation facilities as defined by the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme by an average of 19% (95% CI for difference: 12%–26%; group means: 22% control versus 41% intervention), decreased open defecation among adults by an average of 10% (95% CI for difference: 4%–15%; group means: 73% intervention versus 84% control). However, the intervention did not improve child health measured in terms of multiple health outcomes (diarrhea, HCGI, helminth infections, anemia, growth). Limitations of the study included a relatively short follow-up period following implementation, evidence for contamination in ten of the 40 control villages, and bias possible in self-reported outcomes for diarrhea, HCGI, and open defecation behaviors.

Conclusions

The intervention led to modest increases in availability of IHLs and even more modest reductions in open defecation. These improvements were insufficient to improve child health outcomes (diarrhea, HCGI, parasite infection, anemia, growth). The results underscore the difficulty of achieving adequately large improvements in sanitation levels to deliver expected health benefits within large-scale rural sanitation programs.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01465204","term_id":"NCT01465204"}}NCT01465204 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Network Scale-Up Correction Factors for Population Size Estimation of People Who Inject Drugs and Female Sex Workers in Iran

Introduction

The results of the network scale-up (NSU) method in estimating the size of key populations for HIV might be biased if the recruited subjects are not fully informed of the risky behaviors of people in their networks (low visibility), or key populations have a smaller social network (low popularity). We aimed to measure such biases in the size estimation of people who inject drugs (PWIDs), and female sex workers (FSWs) in Iran.

Methods

We interviewed 163 male PWIDs, 76 FSWs (known as egos) and 600 subjects from the general population. We selected twenty first-names (ten males and ten females) and asked the study subjects separately how many people they knew with one of these names (known as alters). Visibility Factor (VF) was defined as the percentage of FSW or PWID alters that were aware of their behavior. In addition, the popularity factor (PF) was calculated by dividing the number of alters reported by FSWs and PWIDs into that of the general population. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were calculated using bootstrap technique.

Results

The VF was estimated at 54% (95% UI: 52%–56%) for PWID and 45% (95% UI: 42%– 48%) for FSW. The VF among the peer alters was significantly higher than non-peer ones. The PF for PWID and FSW was 69% (95% UI: 66%–73%) and 77% (95% UI: 72%–83%), respectively. The cross-validation and name splitting analysis showed that our estimates were not influenced by any single name.

Conclusions

Both correction factors, particularly VF were far from one, and NSU results without correction, could lead to up to 4 times underestimation of the sizes. Therefore, applying these coefficients is necessary in NSU projects.     

Reaching Mothers and Babies with Early Postnatal Home Visits: The Implementation Realities of Achieving High Coverage in Large-Scale Programs

Background

Nearly half of births in low-income countries occur without a skilled attendant, and even fewer mothers and babies have postnatal contact with providers who can deliver preventive or curative services that save lives. Community-based maternal and newborn care programs with postnatal home visits have been tested in Bangladesh, Malawi, and Nepal. This paper examines coverage and content of home visits in pilot areas and factors associated with receipt of postnatal visits.

Methods

Using data from cross-sectional surveys of women with live births (Bangladesh 398, Malawi: 900, Nepal: 615), generalized linear models were used to assess the strength of association between three factors - receipt of home visits during pregnancy, birth place, birth notification - and receipt of home visits within three days after birth. Meta-analytic techniques were used to generate pooled relative risks for each factor adjusting for other independent variables, maternal age, and education.

Findings

The proportion of mothers and newborns receiving home visits within three days after birth was 57% in Bangladesh, 11% in Malawi, and 50% in Nepal. Mothers and newborns were more likely to receive a postnatal home visit within three days if the mother received at least one home visit during pregnancy (OR2.18, CI1.46–3.25), the birth occurred outside a facility (OR1.48, CI1.28–1.73), and the mother reported a CHW was notified of the birth (OR2.66, CI1.40–5.08). Checking the cord was the most frequently reported action; most mothers reported at least one action for newborns.

Conclusions

Reaching mothers and babies with home visits during pregnancy and within three days after birth is achievable using existing community health systems if workers are available; linked to communities; and receive training, supplies, and supervision. In all settings, programs must evaluate what community delivery systems can handle and how to best utilize them to improve postnatal care access.     

The Prevalence and Determinants of Undiagnosed and Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in Middle-Aged Irish Adults

Background

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes within the Republic of Ireland is poorly defined, although a recent report suggested 135,000 cases in adults aged 45+, with approximately one-third of these undiagnosed. This study aims to assess the prevalence of undiagnosed and diagnosed diabetes in middle-aged adults, and compare features related to either condition, in order to investigate why certain individuals remain undetected.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study involving a sample of 2,047 men and women, aged between 50–69 years, randomly selected from a large primary care centre. Univariate logistic regression was used to explore socio-economic, metabolic and other health related variable associations with undiagnosed or diagnosed diabetes. A final multivariate analysis was used to determine odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for having undiagnosed compared to diagnosed diabetes, adjusted for gender, age and significant covariates determined from univariate models.

Principle Findings

The total prevalence of diabetes was 8.5% (95% CI: 7.4%–8.8%); 72 subjects (3.5%) had undiagnosed diabetes (95% CI: 2.8%–4.4%) and 102 subjects (5.0%) had diagnosed diabetes (95% CI: 4.1%–6.0%). Obesity, dyslipidaemia, and family history of diabetes were positively associated with both undiagnosed and diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Compared with diagnosed subjects, study participants with undiagnosed diabetes were significantly more likely to have low levels of physical activity and were less likely to be on treatment for diabetes-related conditions or to have private medical insurance.

Conclusions

The prevalence of diabetes within the Cork and Kerry Diabetes and Heart Disease Study is comparable to recent estimates from the Slán National Health and Lifestyle Survey, a study which was nationally representative of the general population. A considerable proportion of diabetes cases were undiagnosed (41%), emphasising the need for more effective detection strategies and equitable access to primary healthcare.     

Prevalence of Hypertension in Rural Areas of China: A Meta-Analysis of Published Studies

Background

Hypertension is one of the leading causes of disease burden across the world. In China, the latest nationwide survey of prevalence of hypertension was ten year ago, and data in rural areas is little known. More information about hypertension prevalence could help to improve overall antihypertensive health care. We aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of hypertension in rural areas of China.

Methods

Comprehensive electronic searches of PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Chinese Web of Knowledge, Wangfang, Weipu and SinoMed databases were conducted to identify any study in each database published from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013, reporting the prevalence of hypertension in Chinese rural areas. Prevalence estimates were stratified by age, area, sex, publication year, and sample size. All statistical calculations were made using the Stata Version 11.0 (College Station, Texas) and Statsdirect Version 2.7.9.

Results

We identified 124 studies with a total population of 3,735,534 in the present meta-analysis. Among people aged 18 years old in Chinese rural areas, the summarized prevalence is 22.81% (19.41%–26.41%). Subgroup analysis shows the following results: for male 24.46% (21.19%–27.89%, for female 22.17% (18.25%–26.35%). For 2004–2006: 18.94% (14.41%–23.94%), for 2007–2009, 21.24% (15.98%–27.01%) for 2010–2013: 26.68%, (20.79%–33.02%). For Northern region 25.76% (22.36%–29.32%), for Southern region 19.30%, (15.48%–24.08%).

Conclusions

The last decade witnessed the growth in prevalence of hypertension in rural areas of China compared with the fourth national investigation, which has climbed the same level as the urban area. Guidelines for screening and treatment of hypertension in rural areas need to be given enough attention.     

Estimating the Number of Persons Who Inject Drugs in the United States by Meta-Analysis to Calculate National Rates of HIV and Hepatitis C Virus Infections

Background

Injection drug use provides an efficient mechanism for transmitting bloodborne viruses, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Effective targeting of resources for prevention of HIV and HCV infection among persons who inject drugs (PWID) is based on knowledge of the population size and disparity in disease burden among PWID. This study estimated the number of PWID in the United States to calculate rates of HIV and HCV infection.

Methods

We conducted meta-analysis using data from 4 national probability surveys that measured lifetime (3 surveys) or past-year (3 surveys) injection drug use to estimate the proportion of the United States population that has injected drugs. We then applied these proportions to census data to produce population size estimates. To estimate the disease burden among PWID by calculating rates of disease we used lifetime population size estimates of PWID as denominators and estimates of HIV and HCV infection from national HIV surveillance and survey data, respectively, as numerators. We calculated rates of HIV among PWID by gender-, age-, and race/ethnicity.

Results

Lifetime PWID comprised 2.6% (95% confidence interval: 1.8%–3.3%) of the U.S. population aged 13 years or older, representing approximately 6,612,488 PWID (range: 4,583,188–8,641,788) in 2011. The population estimate of past-year PWID was 0.30% (95% confidence interval: 0.19 %–0.41%) or 774,434 PWID (range: 494,605–1,054,263). Among lifetime PWID, the 2011 HIV diagnosis rate was 55 per 100,000 PWID; the rate of persons living with a diagnosis of HIV infection in 2010 was 2,147 per 100,000 PWID; and the 2011 HCV infection rate was 43,126 per 100,000 PWID.

Conclusion

Estimates of the number of PWID and disease rates among PWID are important for program planning and addressing health inequities.     

Distance to Care,Facility Delivery and Early Neonatal Mortality in Malawi and Zambia

Background

Globally, approximately 3 million babies die annually within their first month. Access to adequate care at birth is needed to reduce newborn as well as maternal deaths. We explore the influence of distance to delivery care and of level of care on early neonatal mortality in rural Zambia and Malawi, the influence of distance (and level of care) on facility delivery, and the influence of facility delivery on early neonatal mortality.

Methods and Findings

National Health Facility Censuses were used to classify the level of obstetric care for 1131 Zambian and 446 Malawian delivery facilities. Straight-line distances to facilities were calculated for 3771 newborns in the 2007 Zambia DHS and 8842 newborns in the 2004 Malawi DHS. There was no association between distance to care and early neonatal mortality in Malawi (OR 0.97, 95%CI 0.58–1.60), while in Zambia, further distance (per 10 km) was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.55, 95%CI 0.35–0.87). The level of care provided in the closest facility showed no association with early neonatal mortality in either Malawi (OR 1.02, 95%CI 0.90–1.16) or Zambia (OR 1.02, 95%CI 0.82–1.26). In both countries, distance to care was strongly associated with facility use for delivery (Malawi: OR 0.35 per 10km, 95%CI 0.26–0.46). All results are adjusted for available confounders. Early neonatal mortality did not differ by frequency of facility delivery in the community.

Conclusions

While better geographic access and higher level of care were associated with more frequent facility delivery, there was no association with lower early neonatal mortality. This could be due to low quality of care for newborns at health facilities, but differential underreporting of early neonatal deaths in the DHS is an alternative explanation. Improved data sources are needed to monitor progress in the provision of obstetric and newborn care and its impact on mortality.     

Achieving MDG 4 in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Has Contributed to the Accelerated Child Mortality Decline in Ghana?

Background

Recent analyses have suggested an accelerated decline in child mortality in Ghana since 2000. This study examines the long-term child mortality trends in the country, relates them to changes in the key drivers of mortality decline, and assesses the feasibility of the country''s MDG 4 attainment.

Methodology

Data from five Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) between 1988 and 2008 and the Maternal Health Survey 2007 were used to generate two-year estimates of under-five mortality rates back to 1967. Lowess regression fitted past and future trends towards 2015. A modified Poisson approach was applied on the person-period data created from the DHS 2003 and 2008 to examine determinants of under-five mortality and their contributions to the change in mortality. A policy-modelling system assessed the feasibility of the country''s MDG 4 attainment.

Findings

The under-five mortality rate has steadily declined over the past 40 years with acceleration since 2000, and is projected to reach between 45 and 69 per 1000 live births in 2015. Preceding birth interval (reference: 36+ months, relative risk [RR] increased as the interval shortened), bed net use (RR 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52–0.95), maternal education (reference: secondary/higher, RR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.18–2.47 for primary), and maternal age at birth (reference: 17+ years, RR 2.13, 95% CI: 1.12–4.05) were primarily associated with under-five mortality. Increased bed-net use made a substantial contribution to the mortality decline. The scale-up of key interventions will allow the possibility of Ghana''s MDG 4 attainment.

Conclusions

National and global efforts for scaling up key child survival interventions in Ghana are paying off ― these concerted efforts need to be sustained in order to achieve MDG 4.     

Time Series Analysis of Trends in Malaria Cases and Deaths at Hospitals and the Effect of Antimalarial Interventions, 2001–2011, Ethiopia

Background

The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001–2011.

Methods

Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001–2005) and post-interventions (2006–2011) periods.

Findings

The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006–2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44–79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%–51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%–94%) and 73% (CI, 48%–86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission.

Conclusions

Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006–2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors.     

Adherence to Cancer Prevention Guidelines in 18 African Countries

Background

Cancer rates in Africa are projected to double by 2030 due to aging and increased exposure to cancer risk factors, including modifiable risk factors. We assessed adherence to 5 modifiable cancer risk factors across 18 African countries.

Methods

Data on adults 18 years and older were obtained from the 2002–2004 World Health Survey. Adherence to current World Cancer Research Fund guidelines on smoking, alcohol, body weight, physical activity, and nutrition was assessed. Adherence scores ranged from 0 (no guideline met) to 5 (all guidelines met). Determinants of adherence were assessed using multivariable linear regression adjusted for individual and country level characteristics.

Results

Across all countries, adherence to the guidelines among adults was high for smoking (72%–99%) and alcohol (85%–100%), but low for body weight (1.8%–78%), physical activity (3.4%–84%) and nutrition (1.4%–61%). Overall adherence score ranged from 2.32 in Mali to 3.72 in Comoros. In multivariable models, residing in low versus high SES households was associated with reduced adherence by 0.24 and 0.21 points for men and women respectively after adjusting for age, gender, education, and marital status (p<0.001). Every % increase in GDP spent on health was associated with increased adherence by 0.03 in men and 0.09 in women (p<0.001).

Conclusions

The wide variation in adherence to cancer prevention guidelines observed across countries and between population sub-groups suggests the need for targeted public health efforts to improve behaviors related to body weight, physical activity and nutrition.     

Effectiveness of Inactivated Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Influenza-Associated Deaths and Hospitalizations among Ontario Residents Aged ≥65 Years: Estimates with Generalized Linear Models Accounting for Healthy Vaccinee Effects

Background

Estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in older adults may be biased because of difficulties identifying and adjusting for confounders of the vaccine-outcome association. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for prevention of serious influenza complications among older persons by using methods to account for underlying differences in risk for these complications.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Ontario residents aged ≥65 years from September 1993 through September 2008. We linked weekly vaccination, hospitalization, and death records for 1.4 million community-dwelling persons aged ≥65 years. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated by comparing ratios of outcome rates during weeks of high versus low influenza activity (defined by viral surveillance data) among vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects by using log-linear regression models that accounted for temperature and time trends with natural spline functions. Effectiveness was estimated for three influenza-associated outcomes: all-cause deaths, deaths occurring within 30 days of pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations.

Results

During weeks when 5% of respiratory specimens tested positive for influenza A, vaccine effectiveness among persons aged ≥65 years was 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], −6%–42%) for all influenza-associated deaths, 25% (95% CI, 13%–37%) for deaths occurring within 30 days after an influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalization, and 19% (95% CI, 4%–31%) for influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations. Because small proportions of deaths, deaths after pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus circulation, we estimated that vaccination prevented 1.6%, 4.8%, and 4.1% of these outcomes, respectively.

Conclusions

By using confounding-reducing techniques with 15 years of provincial-level data including vaccination and health outcomes, we estimated that influenza vaccination prevented ∼4% of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths occurring after hospitalizations among older adults in Ontario.     

Prevalence of Diabetic Retinopathy in Mainland China: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Although diabetic retinopathy (DR) is considered to be a major cause of blindness, this is the first meta-analysis to investigate the pooled prevalence of DR in mainland China.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a search of all English reports on population-based studies for the prevalence of DR using Medline, EMbase, Web of Science, Google (scholar), and all Chinese reports were identified manually and on-line using CBMDisc, Chongqing VIP database, and CNKI database. A meta-analysis was carried out. The fixed effects model or random effects model was used as a statistical test for homogeneity. Nineteen studies were included. The prevalence of DR, non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) in the pooled general population was 1.3% (95%CI: 0.5%–3.2%), 1.1% (95%CI: 0.6%–2.1%), and 0.1% (95%CI: 0.1%–0.3%), respectively, but was 23% (95%CI: 17.8%–29.2%), 19.1% (95%CI: 13.6%–26.3%), and 2.8% (95%CI: 1.9%–4.2%) in the diabetic group. The prevalence rate of DR in the pooled rural population was higher than that in the urban population, 1.6% (95%CI: 1.3%–2%), and the diabetic population, 29.1% (95%CI: 20.9%–38.9%). The prevalence of DR was higher in the Northern region compared with the Southern region.

Conclusions/Significance

The prevalence of DR in mainland China appeared a little high, and varied according to area. NPDR was more common. This study highlights the necessity for DR screening in the rural areas of China.