Statistical models for monitoring and predicting effects of climate change and invasion on the free-living insects and a spider from sub-Antarctic Heard Island

Terrestrial ecosystems of sub-Antarctic islands are particularly sensitive to global and local human impacts, including climate change and species invasion. Invertebrates form a central component of these ecosystems. We conducted a stratified survey of 60 sites on sub-Antarctic Heard Island and used Poisson regression models to describe the spatial distribution and abundance of five of the ten free-living species captured. Acari and Collembola were not considered. Five species were not caught in traps in sufficient numbers to model. The distributions of species were described by altitude, vegetation type and aspect. The resulting distribution models can be used to both monitor and predict the effects of climate change and species invasion on this unique and valuable ecosystem.     

Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird‐dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced frosts with climate change may provide more suitable habitats and enable the spread of these species.     

Conservation of Southern Ocean Islands: invertebrates as exemplars

The Southern Ocean Islands (SOI) have an exceptionally high conservation status, and human activity on the islands is low by comparison with more tropical islands. In consequence, overexploitation, pollution and habitat destruction have had little influence on the invertebrate biotas of the islands, although overexploitation of pelagic species has the potential for an indirect influence via reduction of nutrient inputs to the terrestrial systems. By contrast, invasive alien species, the local effects of global climate change, and interactions between them are having large impacts on invertebrate populations and, as a consequence, on ecosystem functioning. Climate change is not only having direct impacts on indigenous invertebrates, but also seems to be promoting the ease of establishment of new alien invertebrate species. It is also contributing to population increases of invertebrate alien species already on the islands, sometimes with pronounced negative consequences for indigenous species and ecosystem functioning. Moreover, alien plants and mammals are also affecting indigenous invertebrate populations, often with climate change expected to exacerbate the impacts. Although the conservation requirements are reasonably well-understood for terrestrial systems, knowledge of freshwater and marine near-shore systems is inadequate. Nonetheless, what is known for terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems suggests that ongoing conservation of SOI invertebrates requires intervention from the highest political levels internationally, to slow climate change, to local improvements of quarantine measures to reduce the rates and impacts of biological invasions.     

Recent vegetation changes at the high‐latitude tree line ecotone are controlled by geomorphological disturbance,productivity and diversity

Aim We test how productivity, disturbance rate, plant functional composition and species richness gradients control changes in the composition of high‐latitude vegetation during recent climatic warming. Location Northern Fennoscandia, Europe. Methods We resampled tree line ecotone vegetation sites sampled 26 years earlier. To quantify compositional changes, we used generalized linear models to test relationships between compositional changes and environmental gradients. Results Compositional changes in species abundances are positively related to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)‐based estimate of productivity gradient and to geomorphological disturbance. Competitive species in fertile sites show the greatest changes in abundance, opposed to negligible changes in infertile sites. Change in species richness is negatively related to initial richness, whereas geomorphological disturbance has positive effects on change in richness. Few lowland species have moved towards higher elevations. Main conclusions The sensitivity of vegetation to climate change depends on a complex interplay between productivity, physical and biotic disturbances, plant functional composition and richness. Our results suggest that vegetation on productive sites, such as herb‐rich deciduous forests at low altitudes, is more sensitive to climate warming than alpine tundra vegetation where grazing may have strong buffering effects. Geomorphological disturbance promotes vegetation change under climatic warming, whereas high diversity has a stabilizing effect.     

Changes in the cover of plant species associated with climate change and grazing pressure on the Macquarie Island coastal slopes, 1980–2009

Climate change and alien species have affected the vegetation of subantarctic islands. Long-term monitoring of vegetation change on the steep coastal slopes of subantarctic Macquarie Island has allowed responses of plant species to various disturbance regimes to be well documented, although, until recently, the confounding effect of feral herbivore disturbance obscured any responses that might be attributed to climate change. The uncoupling of climate change from variation in feral rabbit numbers allowed us to test whether any plant species were increasing or decreasing on the coastal slopes of the island between 1980 and 2009, independent of rabbit grazing pressure. We used analysis of variance to test for differences in species cover classes between four measurement times on each of 101 quadrats in each of 1980/1981, 1995, 2003 and 2009. We had 54 quadrats on landslips and 47 elsewhere. Approximately two-thirds of the species with significant temporal change exhibited changes that could be expected from variation in rabbit grazing pressure. However, approximately one-third of the species increased in cover irrespective of grazing pressure. On landslips, variation in the cover of these increaser species was largely related to time in a linear mixed model, whereas elsewhere altitude and time were both important. The increase in both atmospheric dryness and episodic soil water-logging that has been described for the island since 1980 may best explain the increaser species.     

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process‐based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire‐prone systems, wildfire management and land‐use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.     

Additive effects of climate and vegetation structure on the altitudinal distribution of greater white-toothed shrews Crocidura russula in a Mediterranean mountain range

Environmental variation along geographic gradients determines the distribution of animals and plants trough both direct and indirect effects. We analyze the relative contribution of climate and vegetation structure variations along a Mediterranean altitude gradient on the patterns of abundance and occurrence of the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula, a generalist small mammal whose distribution is constrained by cold conditions. Sampling was performed from February 1995 to July 1997 on nine plots covering a wide altitudinal gradient (540–1550 m?a.s.l.). Structural equation models for the direct and indirect effects of climate and vegetation on shrew density and occupancy rates showed a stronger effect of vegetation structure (53 %) than direct climate effects (38 %) on shrew distribution. Shrews were more abundant in the warmer lowland sites, but were able to colonize highland cold areas by selecting habitats with well-developed understory vegetation (low shrubs or bracken). Vegetation effects were additive to climatic restrictions, seemingly providing more favorable microclimatic, and presumably food, conditions under shrub cover. Results indicate that predictions of range changes for shrews under climate change scenarios may underestimate expected range expansions under the current conditions of general land abandonment and shrub encroachment.     

Current and Future Fire Regimes and Their Influence on Natural Vegetation in Ethiopia

Fire is a major factor shaping the distribution of vegetation types. In this study, we used a recent high resolution map of potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and MODIS fire products to model and investigate the importance of fire as driver of vegetation distribution patterns in Ethiopia. We employed statistical modeling techniques to estimate the distribution of fire and the PNVs under current climatic conditions, and used the calibrated models to project distributions for different climate change scenarios. Results show a clear congruence between distribution patterns of fire and major vegetation types. The effect of climate change varies considerably between climate change models and scenarios, but as general trend expansions of moist Afromontane forest and Combretum–Terminalia woodlands were predicted. Fire-prone areas were also predicted to increase, and including this factor in vegetation distribution models resulted in stronger expansion of Combretum–Terminalia woodlands and a more limited increase of moist Afromontane forests. These results underline the importance of fire as a regulating factor of vegetation distribution patterns, and how fire needs to be factored into predict the possible effects of climate change. For conservation strategies to effectively address conservation challenges caused by rapid climate shifts, it is imperative that they not only consider the direct influence of climate changes on the vegetation, species species, or biodiversity patterns, but also the influence of future fire regimes.     

Investigating the relationships between the distribution of British ground beetle species (Coleoptera, Carabidae) and temperature, precipitation and altitude

Aims We examine the relationships between the distribution of British ground beetle species and climatic and altitude variables with a view to developing models for evaluating the impact of climate change. Location Data from 1684 10‐km squares in Britain were used to model species–climate/altitude relationships. A validation data set was composed of data from 326 British 10‐km squares not used in the model data set. Methods The relationships between incidence and climate and altitude variables for 137 ground beetle species were investigated using logistic regression. The models produced were subjected to a validation exercise using the Kappa statistic with a second data set of 30 species. Distribution patterns for four species were predicted for Britain using the regression equations generated. Results As many as 136 ground beetle species showed significant relationships with one or more of the altitude and climatic variables but the amount of variation explained by the models was generally poor. Models explaining 20% or more of the variation in species incidence were generated for only 10 species. Mean summer temperature and mean annual temperature were the best predictors for eight and six of these 10 species respectively. Few models based on altitude, annual precipitation and mean winter temperature were good predictors of ground beetle species distribution. The results of the validation exercise were mixed, with models for four species showing good or moderate fits whilst the remainder were poor. Main conclusions Whilst there were many significant relationships between British ground beetle species distributions and altitude and climatic variables, these variables did not appear to be good predictors of ground beetle species distribution. The poor model performance appears to be related to the coarse nature of the response and predictor data sets and the absence of key predictors from the models.     

Precipitation controls seed bank size and its role in alpine meadow community regeneration with increasing altitude

The Tibetan Plateau has undergone significant climate warming in recent decades, and precipitation has also become increasingly variable. Much research has explored the effects of climate change on vegetation on this plateau. As potential vegetation buried in the soil, the soil seed bank is an important resource for ecosystem restoration and resilience. However, almost no studies have explored the effects of climate change on seed banks and the mechanisms of these effects. We used an altitudinal gradient to represent a decrease in temperature and collected soil seed bank samples from 27 alpine meadows (3,158–4,002 m) along this gradient. A structural equation model was used to explore the direct effects of mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT) on the soil seed bank and their indirect effects through aboveground vegetation and soil environmental factors. The species richness and abundance of the aboveground vegetation varied little along the altitudinal gradient, while the species richness and density of the seed bank decreased. The similarity between the seed bank and aboveground vegetation decreased with altitude; specifically, it decreased with MAP but was not related to MAT. The increase in MAP with increasing altitude directly decreased the species richness and density of the seed bank, while the increase in MAP and decrease in MAT with increasing altitude indirectly increased and decreased the species richness of the seed bank, respectively, by directly increasing and decreasing the species richness of the plant community. The size of the soil seed bank declined with increasing altitude. Increases in precipitation directly decreased the species richness and density and indirectly decreased the species richness of the seed bank with increasing elevation. The role of the seed bank in aboveground plant community regeneration decreases with increasing altitude, and this process is controlled by precipitation but not temperature.     

Accounting for uncertainty in colonisation times: a novel approach to modelling the spatio‐temporal dynamics of alien invasions using distribution data

A novel, yet generic, Bayesian approach to parameter inference in a stochastic, spatio‐temporal model of dispersal and colonisation is developed and applied to the invasion of a region by an alien plant species. The method requires species distribution data from multiple time points, and accounts for temporal uncertainty in colonisation times inherent in such data. Covariates, such as climate parameters, altitude and land use, which capture variation in the suitability of sites for plant colonisation, are easily incorporated into the model. The method assumes no local extinction of occupied sites and thus is primarily applicable to modelling distribution data at relatively coarse spatial resolutions of plant species whose range is expanding over time. The implementation of the model and inference algorithm are illustrated through application to British floristic atlas data for the widespread alien Heracleum mantegazzianum (giant hogweed) assessed at a 10 × 10 km resolution in 1970 and 2000. We infer key characteristics of this species, predict its future spread, and use the resulting fitted model to inform a simulation‐based assessment of the methodology. Simulated distribution data are used to validate the inference algorithm. Our results suggest that the accuracy of inference is not sensitive to the number of distribution time points, requiring only that there are at least two points in time when distributions are mapped. We demonstrate the utility of the modelling approach by making future forecasts and historic hindcasts of the distribution of giant hogweed in Great Britain. Giant hogweed is one of the worst alien plants in Britain and has rapidly increased its range since 1970, yet we highlight that a further 20% of land area remains susceptible to colonisation by this species. We use the robustness of this case study to discuss the potential for modelling distribution data for other species and at different spatial scales.     

Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.     

Altitudinal distribution of alien plant species in the Swiss Alps

In summer 2003 we recorded the presence and abundance of alien plant species at 232 sites (107 railway stations and 125 road sites) along mountain passes in the Swiss Alps. The altitudinal distribution of species was related to the current abundance of the species in Switzerland and time since introduction. A total of 155 alien taxa were recorded. Numbers of species per site declined exponentially with altitude, and only a few species were found in the alpine zone (>2000 m). In contrast, species richness among comparable native taxa appeared to be nearly independent of altitude over the range investigated. Maximum altitude reached by alien species was related positively to both total area occupied in Switzerland and to time since introduction. A comparison of the results with earlier records suggests that many species, particularly those previously restricted to low or intermediate altitudes, have advanced their altitudinal limits over the past few decades. Various hypotheses are presented to explain the declining abundance of alien species with altitude: low-altitude filter effects, low propagule pressure, and genetic swamping of peripheral populations at higher altitudes. However, at present we do not have sufficient evidence to determine the relative importance of these effects. We conclude that invasion into mountain areas such as the Swiss Alps tends to proceed rather slowly, though the process may be accelerated by climatic warming. For this reason, further research to investigate the processes determining how plants invade mountain areas is urgently needed. And more generally, investigations into the distribution of alien species along strong altitudinal gradients may provide valuable insights into the mechanisms driving the spread of alien organisms.     

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula

Climate change has caused shifts in species’ ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula.     

Effect of alien riparian vegetation and its removal on a highly endemic river macroinvertebrate community

Invasive alien trees along river banks can reduce indigenous biodiversity, while their removal can restore it. We assessed here family- and species-level responses of river benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages to three riparian vegetation types (natural, alien trees, cleared of alien trees) in the Cape Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot. High species beta diversity of this highly endemic fauna meant that between-river, as well as seasonal effects, dominated assemblage patterns. SASS5, a qualitative, rapid bioassessment technique, based on the sensitivity of the families present, was used as a measure of river health and, indirectly, of water quality. SASS indicated a decline in water quality conditions after alien clearing, a likely response to the greater insolation and apparent erosion of cleared banks, resulting in elevated temperatures and suspended solids and lowered oxygen levels. Overall, cleared and natural sites were more similar to each other than to alien sites, suggesting some post-clearing recovery. However, many sensitive, endemic taxa survived in alien-invaded sites, and more than in the natural sites. These endemic species made use of shady, cool, high-oxygen levels under the alien tree canopy. However, endemics declined in overall abundance in sites cleared of aliens, being replaced by more tolerant, widespread taxa. Clearance of the alien trees opened up the rivers to sunny conditions, which had a major impact on community composition. Vegetation types, oxygen levels and river width were important environmental variables affecting these macroinvertebrate responses. Re-establishment of invertebrate biodiversity matched that of indigenous vegetation, with the most sensitive endemic taxa only recovering after establishment of bushy indigenous and shade-producing fynbos. Therefore, for biodiversity conservation objectives to be achieved, it is essential that indigenous plants are maintained and encouraged during and after clearing to ensure the recovery of endemic and sensitive taxa.     

Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios

Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large‐scale invasions. However, climate change, land‐use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land‐use abandonment and tourism‐linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range‐sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range‐size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land‐use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land‐use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.     

Growth‐form and spatiality driving the functional difference of native and alien aquatic plants in Europe

Trait‐based approaches are widely used in community ecology and invasion biology to unravel underlying mechanisms of vegetation dynamics. Although fundamental trade‐offs between specific traits and invasibility are well described among terrestrial plants, little is known about their role and function in aquatic plant species. In this study, we examine the functional differences of aquatic alien and native plants stating that alien and native species differ in selected leaf traits. Our investigation is based on 60 taxa (21 alien and 39 native) collected from 22 freshwater units of Hungarian and Italian lowlands and highlands. Linear mixed models were used to investigate the effects of nativeness on four fundamental traits (leaf area, leaf dry matter content, specific leaf area, and leaf nitrogen content), while the influence of growth‐form, altitude, and site were employed simultaneously. We found significantly higher values of leaf areas and significantly lower values of specific leaf areas for alien species if growth‐form was included in the model as an additional predictor.We showed that the trait‐based approach of autochthony can apply to aquatic environments similar to terrestrial ones, and leaf traits have relevance in explaining aquatic plant ecology whether traits are combined with growth‐forms as a fixed factor. Our results confirm the importance of traits related to competitive ability in the process of aquatic plant invasions. Alien aquatic plants can be characterized as species producing soft leaves faster. We argue that the functional traits of alien aquatic plants are strongly growth‐form dependent. Using the trait‐based approach, we found reliable characteristics of aquatic plants related to species invasions, which might be used, for example, in conservation management.     

Alien and native plants show contrasting responses to climate and land use in Europe

Aim We tested whether the distribution and cover of alien plant species in Europe was related to human disturbance and microclimate. Location Surveys were conducted at 13 sites across Europe, each containing a pair of landscapes with different land‐use intensities. Methods Sampling locations were chosen based on land use and microclimate at two scales: land use was characterized at the patch and landscape scale; climate was expressed as regional and local temperature. The slope of each sample location was derived from a digital elevation model. Cover of plant species was measured using point counts and analysed using mixed effect models. Species were classified as native, archaeophytes and neophytes (pre‐ versus post‐ad 1500 immigrants). Due to the zero inflation observed in the alien groups, their cover was analysed conditional on their presence. Results Anthropogenic disturbance was a significant explanatory variable, increasing the presence and cover of alien species and decreasing the cover of native species. Alien presence was increased in sites under agricultural management, while their cover responded to land use at both local and landscape scales (and to their interaction), such that only natural habitats in semi‐natural landscapes had low alien cover. Microclimate was important for neophytes, with presence concentrated around mesic conditions. Slope was relevant for archaeophytes and native species, suppressing the former group and promoting the latter one. Main conclusions We found that, at the European scale, the distribution of alien plants is related to anthropogenic disturbance more than to microclimatic differences. The presence of neophytes, however, was influenced by climate at local and regional scales, with the highest incidence under mesic conditions. The different patterns observed for the presence and cover of alien species suggest different mechanisms acting during their establishment and spread. They also suggest that to counteract the expansion of alien species natural habitats may need to be maintained at landscape scales.     

西南地区壳斗科物种丰富度和特有性分布格局模拟及其环境解释

如何准确地模拟物种宏观丰富度格局和特有性中心是生物多样性保护工作的重点,也是生物地理学的热点话题。西南地区是我国壳斗科植物最丰富的地区之一,但物种多样性格局及环境驱动机制尚不清楚。本研究基于西南地区161种壳斗科植物7258个分布点位数据,利用点格局法和物种分布模型两种方式构建了物种丰富度、加权特有性指数和校正加权特有性指数的分布格局,并采用空间自回归模型(SAR)分析上述3个多样性指数与环境因子间的关系。总体上看,物种分布模型模拟的3个指数在空间上比点格局法更为连续,但数值高低分布情况具有相似性: 两种方式模拟的物种丰富度高值区主要分布在滇南边缘、桂北部和桂西南部地区(62～89种);加权特有性指数最大值集中在滇南和桂西地区(1.77～5.02);藏东南、秦岭-大巴山、桂西南部和滇东南地区具有最高的校正加权特有性指数(0.07～0.17)。SAR模型结果显示:最干月降雨量、温度季节性变化标准差、海拔变幅和土壤有机碳含量对物种丰富度的影响均显著,最干月降雨量、温度季节性变化标准差、潜在蒸散量和海拔变幅对加权特有性有着显著影响,温度季节性变化标准差、最干月降雨量、历史温度变化、增强型植被指数变异系数和海拔变幅对校正加权特有性的影响显著;SAR模型对物种丰富度、特有性指数和加权特有性指数的拟合效果(R²=0.857、0.733、0.593)分别优于普通线性模型(R²=0.689、0.425、0.422)。综上,水分可获得性、气候季节性、生境异质性、历史气候变化和土壤状况是制约西南地区壳斗科丰富度和特有性分布的最重要因素。滇南、滇东南、桂西南、桂西、秦岭-大巴山以及藏东南地区是壳斗科物种丰富度中心或特有性中心,应受到重点关注和保护。     

Contemporary perspectives on the niche that can improve models of species range shifts under climate change

Pioneering efforts to predict shifts in species distribution under climate change used simple models based on the correlation between contemporary environmental factors and distributions. These models make predictions at coarse spatial scales and assume the constancy of present correlations between environment and distribution. Adaptive management of climate change impacts requires models that can make more robust predictions at finer spatio-temporal scales by accounting for processes that actually affect species distribution on heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models of the distribution of both species and vegetation types have begun to emerge to meet these needs. We review these developments and highlight how recent advances in our understanding of relationships among the niche concept, species diversity and community assembly point the way towards more effective models for the impacts of global change on species distribution and community diversity.