The rate of adaptation in asexuals

I study the population genetics of adaptation in asexuals. I show that the rate of adaptive substitution in an asexual species or nonrecombining chromosome region is a bell-shaped function of the mutation rate: at some point, increasing the mutation rate decreases the rate of substitution. Curiously, the mutation rate that maximizes the rate of adaptation depends solely on the strength of selection against deleterious mutations. In particular, adaptation is fastest when the genomic rate of mutation, U, equals the harmonic mean of selection coefficients against deleterious mutations, where we assume that selection for favorable alleles is milder than that against deleterious ones. This simple result is independent of the shape of the distribution of effects among favorable and deleterious mutations, population size, and the action of clonal interference. In the course of this work, I derive an approximation to the probability of fixation of a favorable mutation in an asexual genome or nonrecombining chromosome region in which both favorable and deleterious mutations occur.     

Allele frequency distribution under recurrent selective sweeps

The allele frequency of a neutral variant in a population is pushed either upward or downward by directional selection on a linked beneficial mutation ("selective sweeps"). DNA sequences sampled after the fixation of the beneficial allele thus contain an excess of rare neutral alleles. This study investigates the allele frequency distribution under selective sweep models using analytic approximation and simulation. First, given a single selective sweep at a fixed time, I derive an expression for the sampling probabilities of neutral mutants. This solution can be used to estimate the time of the fixation of a beneficial allele from sequence data. Next, I obtain an approximation to mean allele frequencies under recurrent selective sweeps. Under recurrent sweeps, the frequency spectrum is skewed toward rare alleles. However, the excess of high-frequency derived alleles, previously shown to be a signature of single selective sweeps, disappears with recurrent sweeps. It is shown that, using this approximation and multilocus polymorphism data, genomewide parameters of directional selection can be estimated.     

From bad to good: Fitness reversals and the ascent of deleterious mutations

Deleterious mutations are considered a major impediment to adaptation, and there are straightforward expectations for the rate at which they accumulate as a function of population size and mutation rate. In a simulation model of an evolving population of asexually replicating RNA molecules, initially deleterious mutations accumulated at rates nearly equal to that of initially beneficial mutations, without impeding evolutionary progress. As the mutation rate was increased within a moderate range, deleterious mutation accumulation and mean fitness improvement both increased. The fixation rates were higher than predicted by many population-genetic models. This seemingly paradoxical result was resolved in part by the observation that, during the time to fixation, the selection coefficient (s) of initially deleterious mutations reversed to confer a selective advantage. Significantly, more than half of the fixations of initially deleterious mutations involved fitness reversals. These fitness reversals had a substantial effect on the total fitness of the genome and thus contributed to its success in the population. Despite the relative importance of fitness reversals, however, the probabilities of fixation for both initially beneficial and initially deleterious mutations were exceedingly small (on the order of 10⁻⁵ of all mutations).     

Adaptive evolution of asexual populations under Muller's ratchet

We study the population genetics of adaptation in nonequilibrium haploid asexual populations. We find that the accumulation of deleterious mutations, due to the operation of Muller's ratchet, can considerably reduce the rate of fixation of advantageous alleles. Such reduction can be approximated reasonably well by a reduction in the effective population size. In the absence of Muller's ratchet, a beneficial mutation can only become fixed if it creates the best possible genotype; if Muller's ratchet operates, however, mutations initially arising in a nonoptimal genotype can also become fixed in the population, since the loss of the least-loaded class implies that an initially nonoptimal background can become optimal. We show that, while the rate at which adaptive mutations become fixed is reduced, the rate of fixation of deleterious mutations due to the ratchet is not changed by the presence of beneficial mutations as long as the rate of their occurrence is low and the deleterious effects of mutations (s(d)) are higher than the beneficial effects (s(a)). When s(a) > s(d), the advantage of a beneficial mutation can outweigh the deleterious effects of associated mutations. Under these conditions, a beneficial allele can drag to fixation deleterious mutations initially associated with it at a higher rate than in the absence of advantageous alleles. We propose analytical approximations for the rates of accumulation of deleterious and beneficial mutations. Furthermore, when allowing for the possible occurrence of interference between beneficial alleles, we find that the presence of deleterious mutations of either very weak or very strong effect can marginally increase the rate of accumulation of beneficial mutations over that observed in the absence of such deleterious mutations.     

Dynamic mutation-selection balance as an evolutionary attractor

The vast majority of mutations are deleterious and are eliminated by purifying selection. Yet in finite asexual populations, purifying selection cannot completely prevent the accumulation of deleterious mutations due to Muller's ratchet: once lost by stochastic drift, the most-fit class of genotypes is lost forever. If deleterious mutations are weakly selected, Muller's ratchet can lead to a rapid degradation of population fitness. Evidently, the long-term stability of an asexual population requires an influx of beneficial mutations that continuously compensate for the accumulation of the weakly deleterious ones. Hence any stable evolutionary state of a population in a static environment must involve a dynamic mutation-selection balance, where accumulation of deleterious mutations is on average offset by the influx of beneficial mutations. We argue that such a state can exist for any population size N and mutation rate U and calculate the fraction of beneficial mutations, ε, that maintains the balanced state. We find that a surprisingly low ε suffices to achieve stability, even in small populations in the face of high mutation rates and weak selection, maintaining a well-adapted population in spite of Muller's ratchet. This may explain the maintenance of mitochondria and other asexual genomes.     

The influence of deleterious mutations on adaptation in asexual populations

We study the dynamics of adaptation in asexual populations that undergo both beneficial and deleterious mutations. In particular, how the deleterious mutations affect the fixation of beneficial mutations was investigated. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we find that in the "strong-selection weak mutation (SSWM)" regime or in the "clonal interference (CI)" regime, deleterious mutations rarely influence the distribution of "selection coefficients of the fixed mutations (SCFM)"; while in the "multiple mutations" regime, the accumulation of deleterious mutations would lead to a decrease in fitness significantly. We conclude that the effects of deleterious mutations on adaptation depend largely on the supply of beneficial mutations. And interestingly, the lowest adaptation rate occurs for a moderate value of selection coefficient of deleterious mutations.     

Mutators, population size, adaptive landscape and the adaptation of asexual populations of bacteria.

Selection of mutator alleles, increasing the mutation rate up to 10, 000-fold, has been observed during in vitro experimental evolution. This spread is ascribed to the hitchhiking of mutator alleles with favorable mutations, as demonstrated by a theoretical model using selective parameters corresponding to such experiments. Observations of unexpectedly high frequencies of mutators in natural isolates suggest that the same phenomenon could occur in the wild. But it remains questionable whether realistic in natura parameter values could also result in selection of mutators. In particular, the main parameters of adaptation, the size of the adapting population and the height and steepness of the adaptive peak characterizing adaptation, are very variable in nature. By simulation approach, we studied the effect of these parameters on the selection of mutators in asexual populations, assuming additive fitness. We show that the larger the population size, the more likely the fixation of mutator alleles. At a large population size, at least four adaptive mutations are needed for mutator fixation; moreover, under stronger selection stronger mutators are selected. We propose a model based on multiple mutations to illustrate how second-order selection can optimize population fitness when few favorable mutations are required for adaptation.     

Soft sweeps: molecular population genetics of adaptation from standing genetic variation

A population can adapt to a rapid environmental change or habitat expansion in two ways. It may adapt either through new beneficial mutations that subsequently sweep through the population or by using alleles from the standing genetic variation. We use diffusion theory to calculate the probabilities for selective adaptations and find a large increase in the fixation probability for weak substitutions, if alleles originate from the standing genetic variation. We then determine the parameter regions where each scenario-standing variation vs. new mutations-is more likely. Adaptations from the standing genetic variation are favored if either the selective advantage is weak or the selection coefficient and the mutation rate are both high. Finally, we analyze the probability of "soft sweeps," where multiple copies of the selected allele contribute to a substitution, and discuss the consequences for the footprint of selection on linked neutral variation. We find that soft sweeps with weaker selective footprints are likely under both scenarios if the mutation rate and/or the selection coefficient is high.     

Contrasting dynamics of a mutator allele in asexual populations of differing size

Mutators have been shown to hitchhike in asexual populations when the anticipated beneficial mutation supply rate of the mutator subpopulation, NU(b) (for subpopulation of size N and beneficial mutation rate U(b)) exceeds that of the wild-type subpopulation. Here, we examine the effect of total population size on mutator dynamics in asexual experimental populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Although mutators quickly hitchhike to fixation in smaller populations, mutator fixation requires more and more time as population size increases; this observed delay in mutator hitchhiking is consistent with the expected effect of clonal interference. Interestingly, despite their higher beneficial mutation supply rate, mutators are supplanted by the wild type in very large populations. We postulate that this striking reversal in mutator dynamics is caused by an interaction between clonal interference, the fitness cost of the mutator allele, and infrequent large-effect beneficial mutations in our experimental populations. Our work thus identifies a potential set of circumstances under which mutator hitchhiking can be inhibited in natural asexual populations, despite recent theoretical predictions that such populations should have a net tendency to evolve ever-higher genomic mutation rates.     

Selective sweeps in the presence of interference among partially linked loci

Recurrent directional selection on a partially recombining chromosome may cause a substantial reduction of standing genetic variation in natural populations. Previous studies of this effect, commonly called selective sweeps, assumed that at most one beneficial allele is on the way to fixation at a given time. However, for a high rate of selected substitutions and a low recombination rate, this assumption can easily be violated. We investigated this problem using full-forward simulations and analytical approximations. We found that interference between linked beneficial alleles causes a reduction of their fixation probabilities. The hitchhiking effect on linked neutral variation for a given substitution also slightly decreases due to interference. As a result, the strength of recurrent selective sweeps is weakened. However, this effect is significant only in chromosomal regions of relatively low recombination rates where the level of variation is greatly reduced. Therefore, previous results on recurrent selective sweeps although derived for a restricted parameter range are still valid. Analytical approximations are obtained for the case of complete linkage for which interference between competing beneficial alleles is maximal.     

Competition between high- and higher-mutating strains of Escherichia coli

Experimental studies have shown that a mutator allele can readily hitchhike to fixation with beneficial mutations in an asexual population having a low, wild-type mutation rate. Here, we show that a genotype bearing two mutator alleles can supplant a population already fixed for one mutator allele. Our results provide experimental support for recent theory predicting that mutator alleles will tend to accumulate in asexual populations by hitchhiking with beneficial mutations, causing an ever-higher genomic mutation rate.     

Spatial heterogeneity in the strength of selection against deleterious alleles and the mutation load

According to current estimates of genomic deleterious mutation rates (which are often of the order 0.1-1) the mutation load (defined as a reduction in the average fitness of a population due to the presence of deleterious alleles) may be important in many populations. In this paper, I use multilocus simulations to explore the effect of spatial heterogeneity in the strength of selection against deleterious alleles on the mutation load (for example, it has been suggested that stressful environments may increase the strength of selection). These simulations show contrasted results: in some situations, spatial heterogeneity may greatly reduce the mutation load, due to the fact that migrants coming from demes under stronger selection carry relatively few deleterious alleles, and benefit from a strong advantage within demes under weaker selection (where individuals carry many more deleterious alleles); in other situations, however, deleterious alleles accumulate within demes under stronger selection, due to migration pressure from demes under weaker selection, leading to fitness erosion within those demes. This second situation is more frequent when the productivity of the different demes is proportional to their mean fitness. The effect of spatial heterogeneity is greatly reduced, however, when the response to environmental differences is inconsistent across loci.     

Hitchhiking of Deleterious Alleles and the Cost of Adaptation in Partially Selfing Species

Self-fertilization is generally seen to be disadvantageous in the long term. It increases genetic drift, which subsequently reduces polymorphism and the efficiency of selection, which also challenges adaptation. However, high selfing rates can increase the fixation probability of recessive beneficial mutations, but existing theory has generally not accounted for the effect of linked sites. Here, we analyze a model for the fixation probability of deleterious mutants that hitchhike with selective sweeps in diploid, partially selfing populations. Approximate analytical solutions show that, conditional on the sweep not being lost by drift, higher inbreeding rates increase the fixation probability of the deleterious allele, due to the resulting reduction in polymorphism and effective recombination. When extending the analysis to consider a distribution of deleterious alleles, as well as the average fitness increase after a sweep, we find that beneficial alleles generally need to be more recessive than the previously assumed dominance threshold (h < 1/2) for selfing to be beneficial from one-locus theory. Our results highlight that recombination aiding the efficiency of selection on multiple loci amplifies the fitness benefits of outcrossing over selfing, compared to results obtained from one-locus theory. This effect additionally increases the parameter range under which obligate outcrossing is beneficial over partial selfing.     

Beneficial mutations, hitchhiking and the evolution of mutation rates in sexual populations

Natural selection acts in three ways on heritable variation for mutation rates. A modifier allele that increases the mutation rate is (i) disfavored due to association with deleterious mutations, but is also favored due to (ii) association with beneficial mutations and (iii) the reduced costs of lower fidelity replication. When a unique beneficial mutation arises and sweeps to fixation, genetic hitchhiking may cause a substantial change in the frequency of a modifier of mutation rate. In previous studies of the evolution of mutation rates in sexual populations, this effect has been underestimated. This article models the long-term effect of a series of such hitchhiking events and determines the resulting strength of indirect selection on the modifier. This is compared to the indirect selection due to deleterious mutations, when both types of mutations are randomly scattered over a given genetic map. Relative to an asexual population, increased levels of recombination reduce the effects of beneficial mutations more rapidly than those of deleterious mutations. However, the role of beneficial mutations in determining the evolutionarily stable mutation rate may still be significant if the function describing the cost of high-fidelity replication has a shallow gradient.     

Effects of Interference Between Selected Loci on the Mutation Load,Inbreeding Depression,and Heterosis

A classical prediction from single-locus models is that inbreeding increases the efficiency of selection against partially recessive deleterious alleles (purging), thereby decreasing the mutation load and level of inbreeding depression. However, previous multilocus simulation studies found that increasing the rate of self-fertilization of individuals may not lead to purging and argued that selective interference among loci causes this effect. In this article, I derive simple analytical approximations for the mutation load and inbreeding depression, taking into account the effects of interference between pairs of loci. I consider two classical scenarios of nonrandomly mating populations: a single population undergoing partial selfing and a subdivided population with limited dispersal. In the first case, correlations in homozygosity between loci tend to reduce mean fitness and increase inbreeding depression. These effects are stronger when deleterious alleles are more recessive, but only weakly depend on the strength of selection against deleterious alleles and on recombination rates. In subdivided populations, interference increases inbreeding depression within demes, but decreases heterosis between demes. Comparisons with multilocus, individual-based simulations show that these analytical approximations are accurate as long as the effects of interference stay moderate, but fail for high deleterious mutation rates and low dominance coefficients of deleterious alleles.     

Environmental heterogeneity enhances clonal interference

Clonal interference (CI) is a phenomenon that may be important in several asexual microbes. It occurs when population sizes are large and mutation rates to new beneficial alleles are of significant magnitude. Here we explore the role of gene flow and spatial heterogeneity in selection strength in the adaptation of asexuals. We consider a subdivided population of individuals that are adapting, through new beneficial mutations, and that migrate between different patches. The fitness effect of each mutation depends on the patch and all mutations considered are assumed to be unconditionally beneficial. We find that spatial variation in selection pressure affects the rate of adaptive evolution and its qualitative effects depend on the level of gene flow. In particular, we find that both low migration and high levels of heterogeneity lead to enhanced CI. In contrast, for high levels of migration the rate of fixation of adaptive mutations is higher when environmental heterogeneity is present. In addition, we observe that the level of fitness variation is higher and simultaneous fixation of multiple mutations tends to occur in the regime of low migration rates and high heterogeneity.     

Linkage and the Limits to Natural Selection

The probability of fixation of a favorable mutation is reduced if selection at other loci causes inherited variation in fitness. A general method for calculating the fixation probability of an allele that can find itself in a variety of genetic backgrounds is applied to find the effect of substitutions, fluctuating polymorphisms, and deleterious mutations in a large population. With loose linkage, r, the effects depend on the additive genetic variance in relative fitness, var (W), and act by reducing effective population size by (N/N(e)) = 1 + var (W)/2r(2). However, tightly linked loci can have a substantial effect not predictable from N(e). Linked deleterious mutations reduce the fixation probability of weakly favored alleles by exp(-2U/R), where U is the total mutation rate and R is the map length in Morgans. Substitutions can cause a greater reduction: an allele with advantage s < s(crit) = (π(2)/6) log(e) (S/s)[var(W)/R] is very unlikely to be fixed. (S is the advantage of the substitution impeding fixation.) Fluctuating polymorphisms at many (n) linked loci can also have a substantial effect, reducing fixation probability by exp [ &2Kn var(W)/R] [K = -1/E((u - u)(2)/uv) depending on the frequencies (u,v) at the selected polymorphisms]. Hitchhiking due to all three kinds of selection may substantially impede adaptation that depends on weakly favored alleles.     

Recombination and hitchhiking of deleterious alleles

When new advantageous alleles arise and spread within a population, deleterious alleles at neighboring loci can hitchhike alongside them and spread to fixation in areas of low recombination, introducing a fixed mutation load. We use branching processes and diffusion equations to calculate the probability that a deleterious allele hitchhikes and fixes alongside an advantageous mutant. As expected, the probability of fixation of a deleterious hitchhiker rises with the selective advantage of the sweeping allele and declines with the selective disadvantage of the deleterious hitchhiker. We then use computer simulations of a genome with an infinite number of loci to investigate the increase in load after an advantageous mutant is introduced. We show that the appearance of advantageous alleles on genetic backgrounds loaded with deleterious alleles has two potential effects: it can fix deleterious alleles, and it can facilitate the persistence of recombinant lineages that happen to occur. The latter is expected to reduce the signals of selection in the surrounding region. We consider these results in light of human genetic data to infer how likely it is that such deleterious hitchhikers have occurred in our recent evolutionary past.     

FIXATION OF MUTATORS IN ASEXUAL POPULATIONS: THE ROLE OF GENETIC DRIFT AND EPISTASIS

We study the evolutionary dynamics of an asexual population of nonmutators and mutators on a class of epistatic fitness landscapes. We consider the situation in which all mutations are deleterious and mutators are produced from nonmutators continually at a constant rate. We find that in an infinitely large population, a minimum nonmutator‐to‐mutator conversion rate is required to fix the mutators but an arbitrarily small conversion rate results in the fixation of mutators in a finite population. We calculate analytical expressions for the mutator fraction at mutation‐selection balance and fixation time for mutators in a finite population when the difference between the mutation rate for mutator and nonmutator is smaller (regime I) and larger (regime II) than the selection coefficient. Our main result is that in regime I, the mutator fraction and the fixation time are independent of epistasis but in regime II, mutators are rarer and take longer to fix when the decrease in fitness with the number of deleterious mutations occurs at an accelerating rate (synergistic epistasis) than at a diminishing rate (antagonistic epistasis). Our analytical results are compared with numerics and their implications are discussed.     

King''s Formula for the Mutation Load with Epistasis

A formula by J. L. King gives the equilibrium mutation load as L = 2 sigma ui(1 - qi)/z - x) in which ui is the mutation rate to deleterious alleles at the ith locus, qi is the frequency of mutant alleles at this locus, x is the mean number of such mutant genes per individual before selection, z is the mean number in individuals eliminated by selection, and the summation is over all relevant loci. We show that this rule is inaccurate for intense selection and that a correct formula is L = 2 sigma ui(1 - qi) w/(z - x) = 2U w/(z - x) = 2U/(z - x + 2U) in which U is the mean number of new mutations per haploid genome in the population and w is the mean relative fitness before selection. If w/(z - x) less than 1/2, the mutation load is less than the Haldane value (U less than or equal to L less than or equal to 2U) and can be considerably less. In a diploid asexual population, however, with independent occurrence of mutations, L = 1 - e-2U regardless of the mode of selection.