The European carbon balance. Part 1: fossil fuel emissions

We analyzed the magnitude, the trends and the uncertainties of fossil‐fuel CO₂ emissions in the European Union 25 member states (hereafter EU‐25), based on emission inventories from energy‐use statistics. The stability of emissions during the past decade at EU‐25 scale masks decreasing trends in some regions, offset by increasing trends elsewhere. In the recent 4 years, the new Eastern EU‐25 member states have experienced an increase in emissions, reversing after a decade‐long decreasing trend. Mediterranean and Nordic countries have also experienced a strong acceleration in emissions. In Germany, France and United Kingdom, the stability of emissions is due to the decrease in the industry sector, offset by an increase in the transportation sector. When four different inventories models are compared, we show that the between‐models uncertainty is as large as 19% of the mean for EU‐25, and even bigger for individual countries. Accurate accounting for fossil CO₂ emissions depends on a clear understanding of system boundaries, i.e. emitting activities included in the accounting. We found that the largest source of errors between inventories is the use of distinct systems boundaries (e.g. counting or not bunker fuels, cement manufacturing, nonenergy products). Once these inconsistencies are corrected, the between‐models uncertainty can be reduced down to 7% at EU‐25 scale. The uncertainty of emissions at smaller spatial scales than the country scale was analyzed by comparing two emission maps based upon distinct economic and demographic activities. A number of spatial and temporal biases have been found among the two maps, indicating a significant increase in uncertainties when increasing the resolution at scales finer than ≈200 km. At 100 km resolution, for example, the uncertainty of regional emissions is estimated to be 60 g C m^?2 yr^?1, up to 50% of the mean. The uncertainty on regional fossil‐fuel CO₂ fluxes to the atmosphere could be reduced by making accurate ¹⁴C measurements in atmospheric CO₂, and by combining them with transport models.     

Bioconversion of natural gas to liquid fuel: Opportunities and challenges

Natural gas is a mixture of low molecular weight hydrocarbon gases that can be generated from either fossil or anthropogenic resources. Although natural gas is used as a transportation fuel, constraints in storage, relatively low energy content (MJ/L), and delivery have limited widespread adoption. Advanced utilization of natural gas has been explored for biofuel production by microorganisms. In recent years, the aerobic bioconversion of natural gas (or primarily the methane content of natural gas) into liquid fuels (Bio-GTL) by biocatalysts (methanotrophs) has gained increasing attention as a promising alternative for drop-in biofuel production. Methanotrophic bacteria are capable of converting methane into microbial lipids, which can in turn be converted into renewable diesel via a hydrotreating process. In this paper, biodiversity, catalytic properties and key enzymes and pathways of these microbes are summarized. Bioprocess technologies are discussed based upon existing literature, including cultivation conditions, fermentation modes, bioreactor design, and lipid extraction and upgrading. This review also outlines the potential of Bio-GTL using methane as an alternative carbon source as well as the major challenges and future research needs of microbial lipid accumulation derived from methane, key performance index, and techno-economic analysis. An analysis of raw material costs suggests that methane-derived diesel fuel has the potential to be competitive with petroleum-derived diesel.     

Inventory for energy production in Canada

Publicly available databases are analysed to demonstrate their relevance to life cycle inventory for energy production in the Canadian context. Site specific emissions along with sectoral emissions data are combined with production data to construct an energy production model, which has been applied to air emissions. The allocation procedure leads to reasonable results for coal, natural gas and electricity. The detailed allocation of the inventory among petroleum co-products is outside the scope of this study as it requires incorporating knowledge of physical relationship (unit process) or using economic data.     

Climate impact of diverting residual biomass to cement production

Co-firing residual lignocellulosic biomass with fossil fuels is often used to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in processes like cement production where fuel costs are critical and residual biomass can be obtained at a low cost. Since plants remove CO₂ from the atmosphere, CO₂ emissions from biomass combustion are often assumed to have zero global warming potential (${\mathrm{GWP}}_{{\mathrm{bCO}}_2}$= 0) and do not contribute to climate forcing. However, diverting residual biomass to energy use has recently been shown to increase the atmospheric CO₂ load when compared to business-as-usual (BAU) practices, resulting in ${\mathrm{GWP}}_{{\mathrm{bCO}}_2}$ values between 0 and 1. A detailed process model for a natural gas-fired cement plant producing 4200 megagrams of clinker per day was used to calculate the material and energy flows, as well as the lifecycle emissions associated with cement production without and with diverted biomass (supplying 50% of precalciner energy demand) from forestry and landfill sources. Biomass co-firing reduced natural gas demand in the precalciner of the cement plant by 39% relative to the reference scenario (100% natural gas), but the total demands for thermal, electrical, and diesel (transportation) energy increased by at least 14%. Assuming ${\mathrm{GWP}}_{{\mathrm{bCO}}_2}$ values of zero for biomass combustion, cement's lifecycle GHG intensity changed from the reference (natural gas only) plant by −40, −23, and − 89 kg CO₂/Mg clinker for diverted biomass from slash burning, forest floor and landfill biomass, respectively. However, using the calculated ${\mathrm{GWP}}_{{\mathrm{bCO}}_2}$ values for diverted biomass from these same fuel sources, the lifecycle GHG intensities changes were −37, +20 and +28 kg CO₂/Mg clinker, respectively. The switch from decreasing to increasing cement plant GHG emissions (i.e., forest floor or landfill feedstocks scenarios) highlights the importance of calculating and using the ${\mathrm{GWP}}_{{\mathrm{bCO}}_2}$ factor when quantifying lifecycle GHG impacts associated with diverting residual biomass to bioenergy use.     

The effect of agriculture on the primary production in Lake Beskie (Poland) as recorded in the stratigraphy of fossil pigments

Analysis of fossil pigments deposited in the bottom sediments of Lake Beskie, was used to assess changes in the primary productivity during the past years. Three characteristic periods of lake development were distinguished. These periods correspond with a transformation in the lake's catchment area induced by the development of agriculture. A first period was characterized by intensive inflow of allochthonous matter into the lake, due to agriculture in the catchment area, favouring soil erosion. This erosion and the subsequent increase in mineral fertilization resulted in decrease of sorption ability of the soil. This in turn led to increased leaching of nutrients into the lake which resulted in increased primary production and hypolimnetic anoxia. These high oxygen deficits were characterized by a development of photosynthetic bacteria of the genus Chlorobium, and an intensification of the lake's enrichment, mainly with phosphorus. In a final period organic fertilizers (manure) were used in the catchment area. A noticeable improvement of sorption ability of the soil occurred, migration of nutrients to the lake was inhibited, and primary productivity decreased.     

Environmental and resource burdens associated with world biofuel production out to 2050: footprint components from carbon emissions and land use to waste arisings and water consumption

Environmental or ‘ecological’ footprints have been widely used in recent years as indicators of resource consumption and waste absorption presented in terms of biologically productive land area [in global hectares (gha)] required per capita with prevailing technology. In contrast, ‘carbon footprints’ are the amount of carbon (or carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions for such activities in units of mass or weight (like kilograms per functional unit), but can be translated into a component of the environmental footprint (on a gha basis). The carbon and environmental footprints associated with the world production of liquid biofuels have been computed for the period 2010–2050. Estimates of future global biofuel production were adopted from the 2011 International Energy Agency (IEA) ‘technology roadmap’ for transport biofuels. This suggests that, although first generation biofuels will dominate the market up to 2020, advanced or second generation biofuels might constitute some 75% of biofuel production by 2050. The overall environmental footprint was estimated to be 0.29 billion (bn) gha in 2010 and is likely to grow to around 2.57 bn gha by 2050. It was then disaggregated into various components: bioproductive land, built land, carbon emissions, embodied energy, materials and waste, transport, and water consumption. This component‐based approach has enabled the examination of the Manufactured and Natural Capital elements of the ‘four capitals’ model of sustainability quite broadly, along with specific issues (such as the linkages associated with the so‐called energy–land–water nexus). Bioproductive land use was found to exhibit the largest footprint component (a 48% share in 2050), followed by the carbon footprint (23%), embodied energy (16%), and then the water footprint (9%). Footprint components related to built land, transport and waste arisings were all found to account for an insignificant proportion to the overall environmental footprint, together amounting to only about 2%     

Season-long elevation of ozone concentration to projected 2050 levels under fully open-air conditions substantially decreases the growth and production of soybean

Mean surface ozone concentration is predicted to increase 23% by 2050. Previous chamber studies of crops report large yield losses caused by elevation of tropospheric ozone, and have been the basis for projecting economic loss. This is the first study with a food crop (soybean, Glycine max) using free-air gas concentration enrichment (FACE) technology for ozone fumigation. A 23% increase in ozone concentration from an average daytime ambient 56 p.p.b. to a treatment 69 p.p.b. over two growing seasons decreased seed yield by 20%. Total above-ground net primary production decreased by 17% without altering dry mass allocation among shoot organs, except seed. Fewer live leaves and decreased photosynthesis in late grain filling appear to drive the ozone-induced losses in production and yield. These results validate previous chamber studies suggesting that soybean yields will decrease under increasing ozone exposure. In fact, these results suggest that when treated under open-air conditions yield losses may be even greater than the large losses already reported in earlier chamber studies. Yield losses with elevated ozone were greater in the second year following a severe hailstorm, suggesting that losses caused by ozone might be exacerbated by extreme climatic events.     

Observations of the structural changes that occur during charcoalification: implications for identifying charcoal in the fossil record

All of our current understanding of fossil charcoal structure comes from observations of modern wood charcoal produced in furnaces. These charcoals consistently show cell wall homogenization after prolonged heating (>325°C) and this is therefore considered to be a key identifying feature of fossil charcoal. Yet furnaces are unable to replicate the full combustion processes that occur during a wildfire. Here, for the first time, we have studied the microscopic structural evolution of charcoal produced using calorimetry, wherein the wood is ignited under controlled conditions and the heat release rate and other parameters measured, and the resulting charcoal studied using reflected light microscopy. We show that homogenization of cell walls is actually only a short‐lived phase of charcoal formation that occurs during the early heating stages as the pyrolysis front traverses through the wood. Cell wall homogenization is then rapidly overprinted by the thinning, distortion and breakdown of cell walls, and a notable visual increase in reflectance. Our preliminary study therefore suggests that we need to first improve our understanding of charcoal formation in order to better understand the fossil record of wildfires.     

Cassava stems: a new resource to increase food and fuel production

Given the growing global population, mankind must find new ways to lower competition for land between food and fuel production. Our findings for cassava suggest that this important crop can substantially increase the combined production of both food and fuel. Cassava stems have previously been overlooked in starch and energy production. These food‐crop residues contain about 30% starch (dry mass) mostly in the xylem rather than phloem tissue. Up to 15% starch of the stem dry mass can be extracted using simple water‐based techniques, potentially leading to an 87% increase in global cassava starch production. The integration of biofuel production, using residues and wastewater from starch extraction, may bring added value. The cassava roots on which biofuels and other products are based can be replaced by cassava stems without land use expansion, making root starch available as food for additional 30 million people today.     

Life Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Marine Fuels: A Case Study of Saudi Crude Oil versus Natural Gas in Different Global Regions

The understanding of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions dimension in discussing the future of marine fuels makes it important to advance the current life cycle assessment (LCA) practice in this context. Previous LCA studies of marine fuels rely on general LCA models such as GREET and JEC well‐to‐wheels study. These models do not fully capture the various methane losses in the fuel supply chain. The primary goal of this LCA study is to compare the GHG emissions of heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil produced from Saudi crude oil to liquefied natural gas (LNG) in different global regions. A sensitivity analysis was performed to show how results may vary with non‐Saudi crudes. A secondary goal was to advance LCA of marine fuels by utilizing, for the first time, a set of bottom‐up engineering models that enable detailed analysis of specific oil and gas projects worldwide. The results show particular cases where LNG use in marine applications has a significant countereffect in terms of climate change compared to conventional marine fuels produced from a low‐carbon‐intensity crude oil. When the results are calculated based on a 20‐ versus 100‐year methane global warming potential, LNG appears noncompetitive for climate impact in marine applications.     

Potential trade‐offs of employing perennial biomass crops for the bioeconomy in the EU by 2050: Impacts on agricultural markets in the EU and the world

Perennial biomass crops (PBC) are considered a crucial feedstock for sustainable biomass supply to the bioeconomy that compete less with food production compared to traditional crops. However, large‐scale development of PBC as a means to reach greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets would require not only the production on land previously not used for agriculture, but also the use of land that is currently used for agricultural production. This study aims to evaluate agricultural market impacts with biomass demand for food, feed, and PBC in four bioeconomy scenarios (“Business as usual,” “Improved relevance of bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy with diet change”) to achieve a 75% GHG reduction target in the emission trading sector of the EU until 2050. We simulated bioeconomy scenarios in the energy system model TIMES‐PanEU and the agricultural sector model ESIM and conducted a sensitivity analysis considering crop yields, PBC yields, and land use options of PBC. Our results show that all bioeconomy scenarios except the one with diet change lead to increasing food prices (the average food price index increases by about 11% in the EU and 2.5%–3.0% in world markets). A combination of the transformation to a bioeconomy combined with diet change toward less animal protein in the EU is the only scenario that results in only moderately increasing food prices within the EU (+3.0%) and even falling global food prices (–6.4%). In addition, crop yield improvement and cultivation of PBC on marginal land help to reduce increases in food prices, but higher land prices are inevitable because those measures have only small effects on sparing agricultural land for PBC. For a transition to a bioeconomy that acknowledges climate mitigation targets, counter‐measures for those substantial direct and indirect impacts on agricultural markets should be taken into account.     

Assessing future energy and transport systems: the case of fuel cells

Goal, Scope and Background  Assessing future energy and transport systems is of major importance for providing timely information for decision makers. In the discussion of technology options, fuel cells are often portrayed as attractive options for power plants and automotive applications. However, when analysing these systems, the LCA analyst is confronted with methodological problems, particularly with data gaps and the requirement of forecasting and anticipation of future developments. This series of two papers aims at providing a methodological framework for assessing future energy and transport systems (Part 1) and applies this to the two major application areas of fuel cells (Part 2). Methods  To allow the LCA of future energy and transport systems, forecasting tools like, amongst others, cost estimation methods and process simulation of systems are investigated with respect to the applicability in LCAs of future systems (Part 1). The manufacturing process of an SOFC stack is used as an illustration for the forecasting procedure. In Part 2, detailed LCAs of fuel cell power plants and power trains are carried out including fuel (hydrogen, methanol, gasoline, diesel and natural gas) and energy converter production. To compare it with competing technologies, internal combustion engines (automotive applications) and reciprocating engines, gas turbines and combined cycle plants (stationary applications) are also analysed. Results and Discussion  Principally, the investigated forecasting methods are suitable for future energy system assessment. The selection of the best method depends on different factors such as required ressources, quality of the results and flexibility. In particular, the time horizon of the investigation determines which forecasting tool may be applied. Environmentally relevant process steps exhibiting a significant time dependency shall always be investigated using different independent forecasting tools to ensure stability of the results. The results of the LCA underline that, in general, fuel cells offer advantages in the impact categories usually dominated by pol-lutant emissions, such as acidification and eutrophication, whereas for global warming and primary energy demand, the situation depends on a set of parameters such as driving cycle and fuel economy ratio in mobile applications and thermal/total efficiencies in stationary applications. For the latter impact categories, the choice of the primary energy carrier for fuel production (renewable or fossil) dominates the impact reduction. With increasing efficiency and improving emission performance of the conventional systems, the competition in both mobile and stationary applications is getting even stronger. The production of the fuel cell system is of low overall significance in stationary applications, whereas in vehicles, the lower life-time of the vehicle leads to a much higher significance of the power train production. Recommendations and Perspectives  In future, rapid technological and energy economic development will bring further advances for both fuel cells and conventional energy converters. Therefore, LCAs at such an early stage of the market development can only be considered preliminary. It is an essential requirement to accompany the ongoing research and development with iterative LCAs, constantly pointing at environmental hot spots and bottlenecks.     

The early Eocene birds of the Messel fossil site: a 48 million‐year‐old bird community adds a temporal perspective to the evolution of tropical avifaunas

Birds play an important role in studies addressing the diversity and species richness of tropical ecosystems, but because of the poor avian fossil record in all extant tropical regions, a temporal perspective is mainly provided by divergence dates derived from calibrated molecular analyses. Tropical ecosystems were, however, widespread in the Northern Hemisphere during the early Cenozoic, and the early Eocene German fossil site Messel in particular has yielded a rich avian fossil record. The Messel avifauna is characterized by a considerable number of flightless birds, as well as a high diversity of aerial insectivores and the absence of large arboreal birds. With about 70 currently known species in 42 named genus‐level and at least 39 family‐level taxa, it approaches extant tropical biotas in terms of species richness and taxonomic diversity. With regard to its taxonomic composition and presumed ecological characteristics, the Messel avifauna is more similar to the Neotropics, Madagascar, and New Guinea than to tropical forests in continental Africa and Asia. Because the former regions were geographically isolated during most of the Cenozoic, their characteristics may be due to the absence of biotic factors, especially those related to the diversification of placental mammals, which impacted tropical avifaunas in Africa and Asia. The crown groups of most avian taxa that already existed in early Eocene forests are species‐poor. This does not support the hypothesis that the antiquity of tropical ecosystems is key to the diversity of tropical avifaunas, and suggests that high diversification rates may be of greater significance.     

Diverting residual biomass to energy use: Quantifying the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbCO2)

To calculate the global warming potential of biogenic carbon dioxide emissions (GWP_bCO2) associated with diverting residual biomass to bioenergy use, the decay of annual biogenic carbon pulses into the atmosphere over 100 years was compared between biomass use for energy and its business-as-usual decomposition in agricultural, forestry, or landfill sites. Bioenergy use increased atmospheric CO₂ load in all cases, resulting in a ¹⁰⁰GWP_bCO2 (units of g CO₂e/g biomass CO₂ released) of 0.003 for the fast-decomposing agricultural residues to 0.029 for the slow, 0.084–0.625 for forest residues, and 0.368–0.975 for landfill lignocellulosic biomass. In comparison, carbon emissions from fossil fuels have a ¹⁰⁰GWP of 1.0 g (CO₂e/g fossil CO₂). The fast decomposition rate and the corresponding low ¹⁰⁰GWP_bCO2 values of agricultural residues make them a more climate-friendly feedstock for bioenergy production relative to forest residues and landfill lignocellulosic biomass. This study shows that CO₂ released from the combustion of bioenergy or biofuels made from residual biomass has a greenhouse gas footprint that should be considered in assessing climate impacts.     

Respiration rate of arctic plants as related to the production process

This work deals with two intertwined questions: (1) what are the factors underlying equally high respiration rates of arctic plants at low temperature and of temperate zone plants at 20–25°C and (2) whether this respiration feature would explain small size of the northern plants. In an attempt to answer these questions, we collected various hypotheses scattered in the current literature and experimentally examined the respiration- growth relationships by analyzing plant productivity characteristics in three representative species inhabiting Wrangel Island (lat. 71°N). The results show that the components of the production process stay in accord in the arctic plants so that their productivity characteristics at low temperatures are nearly the same as in the temperate zone plants at higher temperatures. Hence, respiration cannot account for small size of the northern plants. Upon the experimental results and general concepts for regulation of respiration, we conclude that the intense respiration of plants inhabiting cold climate regions is caused by higher metabolic demands for energy and intermediates under the northern conditions. The enhanced metabolic demands of plants at low temperature represent the main factor of intense respiration.     

Factors contributing to carbon fluxes from bioenergy harvests in the U.S. Northeast: an analysis using field data

With growing interest in wood bioenergy there is uncertainty over greenhouse gas emissions associated with offsetting fossil fuels. Although quantifying postharvest carbon (C) fluxes will require accurate data, relatively few studies have evaluated these using field data from actual bioenergy harvests. We assessed C reductions and net fluxes immediately postharvest from whole‐tree harvests (WTH), bioenergy harvests without WTH, and nonbioenergy harvests at 35 sites across the northeastern United States. We compared the aboveground forest C in harvested with paired unharvested sites, and analyzed the C transferred to wood products and C emissions from energy generation from harvested sites, including indirect emissions from harvesting, transporting, and processing. All harvests reduced live tree C; however, only bioenergy harvests using WTH significantly reduced C stored in snags (P < 0.01). On average, WTH sites also decreased downed coarse woody debris C while the other harvest types showed increases, although these results were not statistically significant. Bioenergy harvests using WTH generated fewer wood products and resulted in more emissions released from bioenergy than the other two types of harvests, which resulted in a greater net flux of C (P < 0.01). A Classification and Regression Tree analysis determined that it was not the type of harvest or amount of bioenergy generated, but rather the type of skidding machinery and specifics of silvicultural treatment that had the largest impact on net C flux. Although additional research is needed to determine the impact of bioenergy harvesting over multiple rotations and at landscape scales, we conclude that operational factors often associated with WTH may result in an overall intensification of C fluxes. The intensification of bioenergy harvests, and subsequent C emissions, that result from these operational factors could be reduced if operators select smaller equipment and leave a portion of tree tops on site.     

Influence of sward maturity and pre-conditioning temperature on the energy production from grass silage through the integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass (IFBB): 1. The fate of mineral compounds

The IFBB process, which separates biomass into a press fluid for biogas production and a press cake for combustion, is aimed at converting low-input high-diversity grasslands into energy, which is problematic with conventional conversion techniques. Herbage from a lowland hay meadow (Arrhenaterion) was sampled on eight dates between 24 April and 21 June 2007. Silage from each date was processed in six treatments without and with hydrothermal conditioning at different temperatures. The impact on mass flows of plant compounds and on elemental concentrations in the press cake was investigated. Elements detrimental for combustion were significantly reduced in the press cake compared to the silage. Mass flows and elemental concentrations in the press cake were strongly influenced by conditioning temperature as well as concentration of neutral detergent fiber and dry matter in the silage (R² from 0.70 to 0.99). Press cakes of late sampling dates were considered best suitable for combustion.     

Influence of sward maturity and pre-conditioning temperature on the energy production from grass silage through the integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass (IFBB): 2. Properties of energy carriers and energy yield

In order to determine influencing parameters on energy production of the IFBB process, herbage from a lowland hay meadow (Arrhenaterion) was sampled and ensiled at eight dates between 27 April and 21 June 2007. The silage from each date was processed in six IFBB treatments with and without hydrothermal conditioning at different temperatures. Methane yields and higher heating values were determined and an energy balance was calculated with whole-crop digestion (WCD) of the silage as reference system. Maximum net energy yields were 10.2 MWh ha⁻¹ for the IFBB treatment without hydrothermal conditioning and 9.0 MWh ha⁻¹ for the treatment with hydrothermal conditioning at 50 °C. WCD achieved a maximum net energy yield of 3.7 MWh ha⁻¹. Energy conversion efficiency ranged from 0.24 to 0.54 and was predicted with high accuracy by temperature of hydrothermal conditioning as well as concentration of neutral detergent fibre and dry matter in the silage (R² = 0.90).     

Beyond Global Warming Potential: A Comparative Application of Climate Impact Metrics for the Life Cycle Assessment of Coal and Natural Gas Based Electricity

In the ongoing debate about the climate benefits of fuel switching from coal to natural gas for power generation, the metrics used to model climate impacts may be important. In this article, we evaluate the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of coal and natural gas used in new, advanced power plants using a broad set of available climate metrics in order to test for the robustness of results. Climate metrics included in the article are global warming potential, global temperature change potential, technology warming potential, and cumulative radiative forcing. We also used the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse‐gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) climate‐change model to validate the results. We find that all climate metrics suggest a natural gas combined cycle plant offers life cycle climate benefits over 100 years compared to a pulverized coal plant, even if the life cycle methane leakage rate for natural gas reaches 5%. Over shorter time frames (i.e., 20 years), plants using natural gas with a 4% leakage rate have similar climate impacts as those using coal, but are no worse than coal. If carbon capture and sequestration becomes available for both types of power plants, natural gas still offers climate benefits over coal as long as the life cycle methane leakage rate remains below 2%. These results are consistent across climate metrics and the MAGICC model over a 100‐year time frame. Although it is not clear whether any of these metrics are better than the others, the choice of metric can inform decisions based on different societal values. For example, whereas annual temperature change reported may be a more relevant metric to evaluate the human health effects of increased heat, the cumulative temperature change may be more relevant to evaluate climate impacts, such as sea‐level rise, that will result from the cumulative warming.