Chronic inflammation as a determinant of future aging phenotypes

Background:

The importance of chronic inflammation as a determinant of aging phenotypes may have been underestimated in previous studies that used a single measurement of inflammatory markers. We assessed inflammatory markers twice over a 5-year exposure period to examine the association between chronic inflammation and future aging phenotypes in a large population of men and women.

Methods:

We obtained data for 3044 middle-aged adults (28.2% women) who were participating in the Whitehall II study and had no history of stroke, myocardial infarction or cancer at our study’s baseline (1997–1999). Interleukin-6 was measured at baseline and 5 years earlier. Cause-specific mortality, chronic disease and functioning were ascertained from hospital data, register linkage and clinical examinations. We used these data to create 4 aging phenotypes at the 10-year follow-up (2007–2009): successful aging (free of major chronic disease and with optimal physical, mental and cognitive functioning), incident fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular disease, death from noncardiovascular causes and normal aging (all other participants).

Results:

Of the 3044 participants, 721 (23.7%) met the criteria for successful aging at the 10-year follow-up, 321 (10.6%) had cardiovascular disease events, 147 (4.8%) died from noncardiovascular causes, and the remaining 1855 (60.9%) were included in the normal aging phenotype. After adjustment for potential confounders, having a high interleukin-6 level (> 2.0 ng/L) twice over the 5-year exposure period nearly halved the odds of successful aging at the 10-year follow-up (odds ratio [OR] 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38–0.74) and increased the risk of future cardiovascular events (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.15–2.33) and noncardiovascular death (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.58–3.80).

Interpretation:

Chronic inflammation, as ascertained by repeat measurements, was associated with a range of unhealthy aging phenotypes and a decreased likelihood of successful aging. Our results suggest that assessing long-term chronic inflammation by repeat measurement of interleukin-6 has the potential to guide clinical practice. Chronic inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of age-related conditions, ¹ such as type 2 diabetes, ^{2 , 3} cardiovascular disease, ⁴ cognitive impairment ⁵ and brain atrophy. ⁶ Chronic inflammation may result from or be a cause of age-related disease processes (illustrated in Appendix 1, available at www.cmaj.ca/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1503/cmaj.122072/-/DC1 ). For example, obesity increases inflammation, and chronic inflammation, in turn, contributes to the development of type 2 diabetes by inducing insulin resistance, ^{7 , 8} and to coronary artery disease by promoting atherogenesis. ⁹ Thus, raised levels of inflammation appear to be implicated in various pathological processes leading to diseases in older age. Of the various markers of systemic inflammation, interleukin-6 is particularly relevant to aging outcomes. There is increasing evidence that interleukin-6 is the pro-inflammatory cytokine that “drives” downstream inflammatory markers, such as C-reactive protein and fibrinogen. ^{10 , 11} Interleukin-6, in contrast to C-reactive protein and fibrinogen, is also likely to play a causal role in aging owing to its direct effects on the brain and skeletal muscles. ^{12 , 13} In addition, results of Mendelian randomization studies of interleukin-6 and studies of antagonists are consistent with a causal role for interleukin-6 in relation to coronary artery disease, again in contrast to C-reactive protein and fibrinogen. ¹⁴ However, current understanding of the link between chronic inflammation and aging phenotypes is hampered by the methodologic limitations of many existing studies. Most studies reported an assessment of inflammation based on a single measurement, precluding a distinction between the short-term (acute) and longer-term (chronic) impact of the inflammatory process on disease outcomes. ⁷ We conducted a study using 2 measurements of interleukin-6 obtained about 5 years apart to examine the association between chronic inflammation and aging phenotypes assessed 10 years later in a large population of men and women. Because inflammation characterizes a wide range of pathological processes, we considered several aging phenotypes, including cardiovascular disease (fatal and nonfatal), death from noncardiovascular causes and successful aging (optimal functioning across different physical, mental and cognitive domains).     

Obstructive sleep apnea and the prevalence and incidence of cancer

Background:

A link between obstructive sleep apnea and cancer development or progression has been suggested, possibly through chronic hypoxemia, but supporting evidence is limited. We examined the association between the severity of obstructive sleep apnea and prevalent and incident cancer, controlling for known risk factors for cancer development.

Methods:

We included all adults referred with possible obstructive sleep apnea who underwent a first diagnostic sleep study at a single large academic hospital between 1994 and 2010. We linked patient data with data from Ontario health administrative databases from 1991 to 2013. Cancer diagnosis was derived from the Ontario Cancer Registry. We assessed the cross-sectional association between obstructive sleep apnea and prevalent cancer at the time of the sleep study (baseline) using logistic regression analysis. Cox regression models were used to investigate the association between obstructive sleep apnea and incident cancer among patients free of cancer at baseline.

Results:

Of 10 149 patients who underwent a sleep study, 520 (5.1%) had a cancer diagnosis at baseline. Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 627 (6.5%) of the 9629 patients who were free of cancer at baseline had incident cancer. In multivariable regression models, the severity of sleep apnea was not significantly associated with either prevalent or incident cancer after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index and smoking status at baseline (apnea–hypopnea index > 30 v. < 5: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71–1.30, for prevalent cancer, and adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.02, 95% CI 0.80–1.31, for incident cancer; sleep time spent with oxygen saturation < 90%, per 10-minute increase: adjusted OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00–1.03, for prevalent cancer, and adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99–1.02, for incident cancer).

Interpretation:

In a large cohort, the severity of obstructive sleep apnea was not independently associated with either prevalent or incident cancer. Additional studies are needed to elucidate whether there is an independent association with specific types of cancer.Obstructive sleep apnea is a sleep-related breathing disorder characterized by repetitive episodes of upper-airway obstruction during sleep. Through sleep fragmentation, hypoxemia, hypercapnia, swings in intrathoracic pressure and increased sympathetic activity, these episodes lead to symptoms and health consequences.¹ In 2009, 23% of Canadian adults reported risk factors for obstructive sleep apnea, and 5% of the population 45 years and older reported being told by a health professional that they had the condition.²Obstructive sleep apnea has been postulated to cause cancer^3,4 or cancer progression,⁵ possibly through chronic intermittent hypoxemia,⁶ thus making it a potential modifiable risk factor for cancer development.⁷ However, the longitudinal evidence on this association is limited. Four cohort studies evaluated the longitudinal association between obstructive sleep apnea (expressed by the apnea–hypopnea index, oxygen desaturation or symptoms) and cancer development or cancer-related mortality (Appendix 1, available at www.cmaj.ca/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1503/cmaj.140238/-/DC1).^3–5,8 All had limitations. Of the 3 that reported a positive association,^3,5,8 2 studies included a small number of participants with severe obstructive sleep apnea, had a relatively small number of events and did not consider competing risk of death from other causes;^5,8 and 2 used less reliable sleep-testing devices to define obstructive sleep apnea,^3,8 which may have introduced measurement bias. In the only study that did not show an association between obstructive sleep apnea and cancer,⁴ the former was diagnosed on the basis of self-reported symptoms, which could have resulted in misclassification of exposure.There is a need for a sufficiently large cohort study with a long enough follow-up to allow for the potential development of cancer that adjusts for important potential confounders, examines common cancer subtypes and has a rigorous assessment of both obstructive sleep apnea and cancer.^7,9,10 Our study was designed to improve upon the methods of published studies. We examined the association between the severity of obstructive sleep apnea (expressed by the apnea–hypopnea index or oxygen desaturation) and prevalent or incident cancer after controlling for known cancer risk factors.     

The cost-effectiveness of screening for colorectal cancer

Background

Published decision analyses show that screening for colorectal cancer is cost-effective. However, because of the number of tests available, the optimal screening strategy in Canada is unknown. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of 10 strategies for colorectal cancer screening, as well as no screening, incorporating quality of life, noncompliance and data on the costs and benefits of chemotherapy.

Methods

We used a probabilistic Markov model to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy of 50-year-old average-risk Canadians without screening and with screening by each test. We populated the model with data from the published literature. We calculated costs from the perspective of a third-party payer, with inflation to 2007 Canadian dollars.

Results

Of the 10 strategies considered, we focused on three tests currently being used for population screening in some Canadian provinces: low-sensitivity guaiac fecal occult blood test, performed annually; fecal immunochemical test, performed annually; and colonoscopy, performed every 10 years. These strategies reduced the incidence of colorectal cancer by 44%, 65% and 81%, and mortality by 55%, 74% and 83%, respectively, compared with no screening. These strategies generated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $9159, $611 and $6133 per quality-adjusted life year, respectively. The findings were robust to probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Colonoscopy every 10 years yielded the greatest net health benefit.

Interpretation

Screening for colorectal cancer is cost-effective over conventional levels of willingness to pay. Annual high-sensitivity fecal occult blood testing, such as a fecal immunochemical test, or colonoscopy every 10 years offer the best value for the money in Canada.Colorectal cancer is the fourth most common cancer diagnosed in North America and the second leading cause of cancer death.^1,2 An effective population-based screening program is likely to decrease mortality associated with colorectal cancer^3–6 through earlier detection and to decrease incidence by allowing removal of precursor colorectal adenomas.^7,8 Professional societies and government-sponsored committees have released guidelines for screening of average-risk individuals for colorectal cancer by means of several testing options.^9–12 These tests vary in sensitivity, specificity, risk, costs and availability. With no published studies designed to directly compare screening strategies, decision analysis is a useful technique for examining the relative cost-effectiveness of these strategies.^13–21 Previous studies have shown that screening for colorectal cancer is cost-effective at conventional levels of willingness to pay, but no single strategy has emerged as clinically superior or economically dominant.²² The interpretations of economic evaluations in this area have been limited because investigators have not simultaneously accounted for the positive effects of screening on quality of life, the effect of noncompliance with screening schedules, and the greater efficacy and cost of more modern chemotherapy regimens for colorectal cancer. Furthermore, no study has included all of the strategies recommended in the 2008 guidelines of the US Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer.¹⁰Our objective was to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of 10 strategies for colorectal cancer screening, as well as the absence of a screening program. The current study is more complete than earlier studies because we included information on quality of life, noncompliance with screening and the efficacy observed in recent randomized trials of colorectal cancer treatments. The complete model is available in Appendix 1 (available at www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/cmaj.090845/DC1). This article focuses on the comparison of no screening and three screening strategies:¹ low-sensitivity guaiac fecal occult blood test,² performed annually; fecal immunochemical test,³ performed annually; and colonoscopy, performed every 10 years. These three tests are currently being used or considered for population-based screening of average-risk individuals in some Canadian provinces.     

Do clinicians understand the size of treatment effects? A randomized survey across 8 countries

Background:

Meta-analyses of continuous outcomes typically provide enough information for decision-makers to evaluate the extent to which chance can explain apparent differences between interventions. The interpretation of the magnitude of these differences — from trivial to large — can, however, be challenging. We investigated clinicians’ understanding and perceptions of usefulness of 6 statistical formats for presenting continuous outcomes from meta-analyses (standardized mean difference, minimal important difference units, mean difference in natural units, ratio of means, relative risk and risk difference).

Methods:

We invited 610 staff and trainees in internal medicine and family medicine programs in 8 countries to participate. Paper-based, self-administered questionnaires presented summary estimates of hypothetical interventions versus placebo for chronic pain. The estimates showed either a small or a large effect for each of the 6 statistical formats for presenting continuous outcomes. Questions addressed participants’ understanding of the magnitude of treatment effects and their perception of the usefulness of the presentation format. We randomly assigned participants 1 of 4 versions of the questionnaire, each with a different effect size (large or small) and presentation order for the 6 formats (1 to 6, or 6 to 1).

Results:

Overall, 531 (87.0%) of the clinicians responded. Respondents best understood risk difference, followed by relative risk and ratio of means. Similarly, they perceived the dichotomous presentation of continuous outcomes (relative risk and risk difference) to be most useful. Presenting results as a standardized mean difference, the longest standing and most widely used approach, was poorly understood and perceived as least useful.

Interpretation:

None of the presentation formats were well understood or perceived as extremely useful. Clinicians best understood the dichotomous presentations of continuous outcomes and perceived them to be the most useful. Further initiatives to help clinicians better grasp the magnitude of the treatment effect are needed.Health professionals increasingly rely on summary estimates from systematic reviews and meta-analyses to guide their clinical decisions and to provide information for shared decision-making. Meta-analyses of clinical trials typically provide the information necessary for decision-makers to evaluate the extent to which chance can explain apparent intervention effects (i.e., statistical significance). However, interpreting the magnitude of the treatment effect — from trivial to large — particularly for continuous outcome measures, can be challenging.Such challenges include decision-makers’ unfamiliarity with the instruments used to measure the outcome. For instance, without further information, clinicians may have difficulty grasping the importance of a 5-point difference on the Short-Form Health Survey-36 (SF-36) or a 1-point difference on a visual analogue scale for pain.¹ Second, trials often use different instruments to measure the same construct. For instance, investigators may measure physical function among patients with arthritis using 1 of 5 instruments (the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index using either a visual analogue or Likert scale; the Arthritis Impact Measurement Scale; the SF-36 Physical Function; or the Lequesne index).^2,3Authors have several options for pooling results of continuous outcomes. When all trials have used the same instrument to measure outcomes such as physical function or pain, the most straightforward method is to present the mean difference in natural units between the intervention and control groups. When trialists have used different instruments to measure the same construct, authors of systematic reviews typically report differences between intervention and control groups in standard deviation units, an approach known as the standardized mean difference (SMD). This approach involves dividing the mean difference in each trial by the pooled standard deviation for that trial’s outcome.⁴For meta-analyses of outcomes measured using different instruments, presenting results as an SMD is the longest standing and most widely used approach and is recommended in the Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions.⁴ Limitations of this approach include, however, statistical bias toward decreased treatment effects,^5,6 the possibility that decision-makers will find the measure difficult to interpret^7,8 and the possibility that the same treatment effect will appear different depending on whether the study population had similar results in the measure of interest (i.e., if homogeneous, a small standard deviation) or varied greatly in the measure of interest (i.e., if heterogeneous, a large standard deviation).^9,10Several research groups have proposed alternative statistical formats for presenting continuous outcomes from meta-analyses that they postulate clinicians will more easily interpret.^{6–8,11–16} The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group recently provided an overview of methods for presenting pooled continuous data.^9,10 These alternatives (Appendix 1, available at www.cmaj.ca/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1503/cmaj.150430/-/DC1), although intuitively compelling, have seen limited use.We conducted a survey to determine clinicians’ understanding of the magnitude of treatment effect for 6 approaches to the presentation of continuous outcomes from meta-analyses, as well as their perceptions of the usefulness of each approach for clinical decision-making. We also evaluated whether their understanding and perceptions of usefulness were influenced by country, medical specialty, clinical experience or training in health research methodology.     

A prospective cluster-randomized trial to implement the Canadian CT Head Rule in emergency departments

Background

The Canadian CT Head Rule was developed to allow physicians to be more selective when ordering computed tomography (CT) imaging for patients with minor head injury. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of implementing this validated decision rule at multiple emergency departments.

Methods

We conducted a matched-pair cluster-randomized trial that compared the outcomes of 4531 patients with minor head injury during two 12-month periods (before and after) at hospital emergency departments in Canada, six of which were randomly allocated as intervention sites and six as control sites. At the intervention sites, active strategies, including education, changes to policy and real-time reminders on radiologic requisitions were used to implement the Canadian CT Head Rule. The main outcome measure was referral for CT scan of the head.

Results

Baseline characteristics of patients were similar when comparing control to intervention sites. At the intervention sites, the proportion of patients referred for CT imaging increased from the “before” period (62.8%) to the “after” period (76.2%) (difference +13.3%, 95% CI 9.7%–17.0%). At the control sites, the proportion of CT imaging usage also increased, from 67.5% to 74.1% (difference +6.7%, 95% CI 2.6%–10.8%). The change in mean imaging rates from the “before” period to the “after” period for intervention versus control hospitals was not significant (p = 0.16). There were no missed brain injuries or adverse outcomes.

Interpretation

Our knowledge–translation-based trial of the Canadian CT Head Rule did not reduce rates of CT imaging in Canadian emergency departments. Future studies should identify strategies to deal with barriers to implementation of this decision rule and explore more effective approaches to knowledge translation. (ClinicalTrials.gov trial register no. NCT00993252)More than six million instances of head and neck trauma are seen annually in emergency departments in Canada and the United States.¹ Most are classified as minimal or minor head injury, but in a very small proportion, deterioration occurs and neurosurgical intervention is needed for intracranial hematoma.^2,3 In recent years, North American use of computed tomography (CT) for many conditions in the emergency department, including minor head injury, has increased five-fold.^1,4 Our own Canadian data showed marked variation in the use of CT for similar patients.⁵ Over 90% of CT scans are negative for clinically important brain injury.^6–8 Owing to its high volume of usage, such imaging adds to health care costs. There have also been increasing concerns about radiation-related risk from unnecessary CT scans.^9,10 Additionally, unnecessary use of CT scanning compounds the Canadian problems of overcrowding of emergency departments and inadequate access to advanced imaging for nonemergency outpatients.Clinical decision rules are derived from original research and may be defined as tools for clinical decision-making that incorporate three or more variables from a patient’s history, physical examination or simple tests.^11–13 The Canadian CT Head Rule comprises five high-risk and two medium-risk criteria and was derived by prospectively evaluating 3121 adults with minor head injury (Figure 1) (Appendix 1, available at www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/cmaj.091974/DC1).⁶ The resultant decision rule was then prospectively validated in a group of 2707 patients and showed high sensitivity (100%; 95% confidence interval [CI ] 91–100) and reliability.¹⁴ The results of its validation suggested that, in patients presenting to emergency departments with minor head trauma, a rate of usage of CT imaging as low as 62.4% was possible and safe.Open in a separate windowFigure 1The Canadian CT Head Rule, as used in the study. Note: CSF = cerebrospinal fluid, CT = computed tomography, GCS = Glasgow Coma Scale.Unfortunately, most decision rules are never used after derivation because they are not adequately tested in validation or implementation studies.^15–19 We recently successfully implemented a similar rule, the Canadian C-Spine Rule, at multiple Canadian sites.²⁰ Hence, the goal of the current study was to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of an active strategy to implement the Canadian CT Head Rule at multiple emergency departments. We wanted to test both the impact of the rule on rates of CT imaging and the effectiveness of an inexpensive and easily adopted implementation strategy. In addition, we wanted to further evaluate the accuracy of the rule.     

Cardiac resynchronization therapy: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background

Studies of cardiac resynchronization therapy in addition to an implantable cardioverter defibrillator in patients with mild to moderate congestive heart failure had not been shown to reduce mortality until the recent RAFT trial (Resynchronization/Defibrillation for Ambulatory Heart Failure Trial). We performed a meta-analysis including the RAFT trial to determine the effect of cardiac resynchronization therapy with or without an implantable defibrillator on mortality.

Methods

We searched electronic databases and other sources for reports of randomized trials using a parallel or crossover design. We included studies involving patients with heart failure receiving optimal medical therapy that compared cardiac resynchronization therapy with optimal medical therapy alone, or cardiac resynchronization therapy plus an implantable defibrillator with a standard implantable defibrillator. The primary outcome was mortality. The optimum information size was considered to assess the minimum amount of information required in the literature to reach reliable conclusions about cardiac resynchronization therapy.

Results

Of 3071 reports identified, 12 studies (n = 7538) were included in our meta-analysis. Compared with optimal medical therapy alone, cardiac resynchronization therapy plus optimal medical therapy significantly reduced mortality (relative risk [RR] 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62–0.85). Compared with an implantable defibrillator alone, cardiac resynchronization therapy plus an implantable defibrillator significantly reduced mortality (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72–0.96). This last finding remained significant among patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I or II disease (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.67–0.96) but not among those with class III or IV disease (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.69–1.07). Analysis of the optimum information size showed that the sequential monitoring boundary was crossed, which suggests no need for further clinical trials.

Interpretation

The cumulative evidence is now conclusive that the addition of cardiac resynchronization to optimal medical therapy or defibrillator therapy significantly reduces mortality among patients with heart failure.Congestive heart failure is currently reaching epidemic proportions in Canada, with 500 000 Canadians affected and 50 000 new patients identified each year.¹ It accounts for more than 100 000 hospital admissions per year and has a one-year mortality ranging from 15% to 50%, depending on the severity of heart failure.² By 2050, the number of patients with heart failure is projected to increase threefold.²Advances in medical therapies have resulted in substantial reductions in mortality associated with congestive heart failure.^3–7 The use of devices has recently become an important adjuvant therapy.⁸ Cardiac resynchronization therapy involves pacing from both the right and left ventricles simultaneously to improve myocardial efficiency (see radiographs in Appendix 1, at www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/cmaj.101685/DC1). Cardiac resynchronization therapy has been shown to reduce morbidity and, when compared with medical therapy alone, to reduce mortality.^9–13 Until recently, it was not shown to reduce mortality among patients who also received an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. Among patients receiving optimal medical therapy, the Resynchronization/Defibrillation for Ambulatory Heart Failure Trial (RAFT) showed the superiority of cardiac resynchronization therapy in addition to an implantable defibrillator over a standard implantable defibrillator in reducing mortality and the combined outcome of death from any cause or hospital admission related to heart failure.¹⁴We performed a meta-analysis to further assess the effect on mortality of cardiac resynchronization therapy with and without an implantable defibrillator among patients with mildly symptomatic and advanced heart failure.     

Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule

Background

Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort).

Results

The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83–0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87–0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3–5 points; negative result ≤ 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%–94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%–83.9%).

Interpretation

The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.Chest pain is common. Studies have shown a lifetime prevalence of 20% to 40% in the general population.¹ Its prevalence in primary care ranges from 0.7% to 2.7% depending on inclusion criteria and country,^2–4 with coronary artery disease being the underlying cause in about 12% of primary care patients.^1,5 General practitioners are challenged to identify serious cardiac disease reliably and also protect patients from unnecessary investigations and hospital admissions. Because electrocardiography and the cardiac troponin test are of limited value in primary care,^6,7 history taking and physical examination remain the main diagnostic tools.Most published studies on the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms for acute coronary events have been conducted in high-prevalence settings such as hospital emergency departments.^8–10 Predictive scores have also been developed for use in emergency departments, mainly for the diagnosis of acute coronary syndromes.^11–13 To what degree these apply in primary care is unknown.^14–16A clinical prediction score to rule out coronary artery disease in general practice has been developed.¹⁷ However, it did not perform well when validated externally. The aim of our study was to develop a simple, valid and usable prediction score based on signs and symptoms to help primary care physicians rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain.     

Effect of an intervention to improve the cardiovascular health of family members of patients with coronary artery disease: a randomized trial

Background:

Family members of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) have higher risk of vascular events. We conducted a trial to determine if a family heart-health intervention could reduce their risk of CAD.

Methods:

We assessed coronary risk factors and randomized 426 family members of patients with CAD to a family heart-health intervention (n = 211) or control (n = 215). The intervention included feedback about risk factors, assistance with goal setting and counselling from health educators for 12 months. Reports were sent to the primary care physicians of patients whose lipid levels and blood pressure exceeded threshold values. All participants received printed materials about smoking cessation, healthy eating, weight management and physical activity; the control group received only these materials. The main outcomes (ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol; physical activity; fruit and vegetable consumption) were assessed at 3 and 12 months. We examined group and time effects using mixed models analyses with the baseline values as covariates. The secondary outcomes were plasma lipid levels (total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triglycerides); glucose level; blood pressure; smoking status; waist circumference; body mass index; and the use of blood pressure, lipid-lowering and smoking cessation medications.

Results:

We found no effect of the intervention on the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol. However, participants in the intervention group reported consuming more fruit and vegetables (1.2 servings per day more after 3 mo and 0.8 servings at 12 mo; p < 0.001). There was a significant group by time interaction for physical activity (p = 0.03). At 3 months, those in the intervention group reported 65.8 more minutes of physical activity per week (95% confidence interval [CI] 47.0–84.7 min). At 12 months, participants in the intervention group reported 23.9 more minutes each week (95% CI 3.9–44.0 min).

Interpretation:

A health educator–led heart-health intervention did not improve the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol but did increase reported physical activity and fruit and vegetable consumption among family members of patients with CAD. Hospitalization of a spouse, sibling or parent is an opportunity to improve cardiovascular health among other family members. Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov, no {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00552591","term_id":"NCT00552591"}}NCT00552591.People with a family history of coronary artery disease (CAD) among their first-degree relatives have an increased risk of vascular events.^1–5 This risk is greater if more than 1 relative has heart disease, or if the onset of disease in relatives occurred before age 55.^1–3,5 A concordance of coronary risk factors between patients with heart disease and their spouses has also been reported.^6–10 Although genetic factors are important, familial aggregation of coronary risk factors also plays a role.^9,11,12 Guidelines recommend screening individuals with a positive family history,^13–15 but screening rates are low (< 15%), and interventions are rarely initiated.^16,17 Family members of patients with heart disease may benefit from focused interventions to improve cardiovascular health. Counselling that address physical inactivity and dietary behaviours is central to these interventions; clinical management of risk factors such as tobacco addiction, dyslipidemia, hypertension and dysglycemia are also important. We developed and evaluated a year-long family-based heart-health intervention for the siblings, offspring and spouses of patients admitted to hospital with an acute coronary event.     

Incidence and causes of heparin-induced skin lesions

Background

Little is known about the incidence and causes of heparin-induced skin lesions. The 2 most commonly reported causes of heparin-induced skin lesions are immune-mediated heparin-induced thrombocytopenia and delayed-type hypersensitivity reactions.

Methods

We prospectively examined consecutive patients who received subcutaneous heparin (most often enoxaparin or nadroparin) for the presence of heparin-induced skin lesions. If such lesions were identified, we performed a skin biopsy, platelet count measurements, and antiplatelet-factor 4 antibody and allergy testing.

Results

We enrolled 320 patients. In total, 24 patients (7.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7%–10.6%) had heparin-induced skin lesions. Delayed-type hypersensitivity reactions were identified as the cause in all 24 patients. One patient with histopathologic evidence of delayed-type hypersensitivity tested positive for antiplatelet-factor 4 antibodies. We identified the following risk factors for heparin-induced skin lesions: a body mass index greater than 25 (odds ratio [OR] 4.6, 95% CI 1.7–15.3), duration of heparin therapy longer than 9 days (OR 5.9, 95% CI 1.9–26.3) and female sex (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.1–8.8).

Interpretation

Heparin-induced skin lesions are relatively common, have identifiable risk factors and are commonly caused by a delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction (type IV allergic response). (ClinicalTrials.gov trial register no. {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00510432","term_id":"NCT00510432"}}NCT00510432.)Hpeparin has been used as an anticoagulant for over 60 years.¹ Well-known adverse effects of heparin therapy are bleeding, osteoporosis, hair loss, and immune and nonimmune heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The incidence of heparin-induced skin lesions is unknown, despite being increasingly reported.^2–4 Heparin-induced skin lesions may be caused by at least 5 mechanisms: delayed-type (type IV) hypersensitivity responses,^2,4–6 immune-mediated thrombocytopenia,³ type I allergic reactions,^7,8 skin necrosis⁹ and pustulosis.¹⁰Heparin-induced skin lesions may indicate the presence of life-threatening heparin-induced thrombocytopenia¹¹ — even in the absence of thrombocytopenia.³ There are no data available on the incidence of heparin-induced skin lesions or their causes. Given the rising number of reports of heparin-induced skin lesions and the importance of correctly diagnosing this condition, we sought to determine the incidence of heparin-induced skin lesions.     

Cancer risk related to low-dose ionizing radiation from cardiac imaging in patients after acute myocardial infarction

Background

Patients exposed to low-dose ionizing radiation from cardiac imaging and therapeutic procedures after acute myocardial infarction may be at increased risk of cancer.

Methods

Using an administrative database, we selected a cohort of patients who had an acute myocardial infarction between April 1996 and March 2006 and no history of cancer. We documented all cardiac imaging and therapeutic procedures involving low-dose ionizing radiation. The primary outcome was risk of cancer. Statistical analyses were performed using a time-dependent Cox model adjusted for age, sex and exposure to low-dose ionizing radiation from noncardiac imaging to account for work-up of cancer.

Results

Of the 82 861 patients included in the cohort, 77% underwent at least one cardiac imaging or therapeutic procedure involving low-dose ionizing radiation in the first year after acute myocardial infarction. The cumulative exposure to radiation from cardiac procedures was 5.3 milliSieverts (mSv) per patient-year, of which 84% occurred during the first year after acute myocardial infarction. A total of 12 020 incident cancers were diagnosed during the follow-up period. There was a dose-dependent relation between exposure to radiation from cardiac procedures and subsequent risk of cancer. For every 10 mSv of low-dose ionizing radiation, there was a 3% increase in the risk of age- and sex-adjusted cancer over a mean follow-up period of five years (hazard ratio 1.003 per milliSievert, 95% confidence interval 1.002–1.004).

Interpretation

Exposure to low-dose ionizing radiation from cardiac imaging and therapeutic procedures after acute myocardial infarction is associated with an increased risk of cancer.Studies involving atomic bomb survivors have documented an increased incidence of malignant neoplasm related to the radiation exposure.^1–4 Survivors who were farther from the epicentre of the blast had a lower incidence of cancer, whereas those who were closer had a higher incidence.⁵ Similar risk estimates have been reported among workers in nuclear plants.⁶ However, little is known about the relation between exposure to low-dose ionizing radiation from medical procedures and the risk of cancer.In the past six decades since the atomic bomb explosions, most individuals worldwide have had minimal exposure to ionizing radiation. However, the recent increase in the use of medical imaging and therapeutic procedures involving low-dose ionizing radiation has led to a growing concern that individual patients may be at increased risk of cancer.^7–12 Whereas strict regulatory control is placed on occupational exposure at work sites, no such control exists among patients who are exposed to such radiation.^13–16It is not only the frequency of these procedures that is increasing. Newer types of imaging procedures are using higher doses of low-dose ionizing radiation than those used with more traditional procedures.^8,11 Among patients being evaluated for coronary artery disease, for example, coronary computed tomography is increasingly being used. This test may be used in addition to other tests such as nuclear scans, coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention, each of which exposes the patient to low-dose ionizing radiation.^12,17–21 Imaging procedures provide information that can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with coronary artery disease. Since such predictions do not necessarily translate into better clinical outcomes,^8,12 the prognostic value obtained from imaging procedures using low-dose ionizing radiation needs to be balanced against the potential for risk.Authors of several studies have estimated that the risk of cancer is not negligible among patients exposed to low-dose ionizing radiation.^22–27 To our knowledge, none of these studies directly linked cumulative exposure and cancer risk. We examined a cohort of patients who had acute myocardial infarction and measured the association between low-dose ionizing radiation from cardiac imaging and therapeutic procedures and the risk of cancer.     

Prevalence of and risk factors for persistent postoperative nonanginal pain after cardiac surgery: a 2-year prospective multicentre study

Background:

Persistent postoperative pain continues to be an underrecognized complication. We examined the prevalence of and risk factors for this type of pain after cardiac surgery.

Methods:

We enrolled patients scheduled for coronary artery bypass grafting or valve replacement, or both, from Feb. 8, 2005, to Sept. 1, 2009. Validated measures were used to assess (a) preoperative anxiety and depression, tendency to catastrophize in the face of pain, health-related quality of life and presence of persistent pain; (b) pain intensity and interference in the first postoperative week; and (c) presence and intensity of persistent postoperative pain at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. The primary outcome was the presence of persistent postoperative pain during 24 months of follow-up.

Results:

A total of 1247 patients completed the preoperative assessment. Follow-up retention rates at 3 and 24 months were 84% and 78%, respectively. The prevalence of persistent postoperative pain decreased significantly over time, from 40.1% at 3 months to 22.1% at 6 months, 16.5% at 12 months and 9.5% at 24 months; the pain was rated as moderate to severe in 3.6% at 24 months. Acute postoperative pain predicted both the presence and severity of persistent postoperative pain. The more intense the pain during the first week after surgery and the more it interfered with functioning, the more likely the patients were to report persistent postoperative pain. Pre-existing persistent pain and increased preoperative anxiety also predicted the presence of persistent postoperative pain.

Interpretation:

Persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin after cardiac surgery affected a substantial proportion of the study population. Future research is needed to determine whether interventions to modify certain risk factors, such as preoperative anxiety and the severity of pain before and immediately after surgery, may help to minimize or prevent persistent postoperative pain.Postoperative pain that persists beyond the normal time for tissue healing (> 3 mo) is increasingly recognized as an important complication after various types of surgery and can have serious consequences on patients’ daily living.^1–3 Cardiac surgeries, such as coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve replacement, rank among the most frequently performed interventions worldwide.⁴ They aim to improve survival and quality of life by reducing symptoms, including anginal pain. However, persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin has been reported in 7% to 60% of patients following these surgeries.^5–23 Such variability is common in other types of major surgery and is due mainly to differences in the definition of persistent postoperative pain, study design, data collection methods and duration of follow-up.^1–3,24Few prospective cohort studies have examined the exact time course of persistent postoperative pain after cardiac surgery, and follow-up has always been limited to a year or less.^9,14,25 Factors that put patients at risk of this type of problem are poorly understood.²⁶ Studies have reported inconsistent results regarding the contribution of age, sex, body mass index, preoperative angina, surgical technique, grafting site, postoperative complications or level of opioid consumption after surgery.^{5–7,9,13,14,16–19,21–23,25,27} Only 1 study investigated the role of chronic nonanginal pain before surgery as a contributing factor;²¹ 5 others prospectively assessed the association between persistent postoperative pain and acute pain intensity in the first postoperative week but reported conflicting results.^{13,14,21,22,25} All of the above studies were carried out in a single hospital and included relatively small samples. None of the studies examined the contribution of psychological factors such as levels of anxiety and depression before cardiac surgery, although these factors have been shown to influence acute or persistent postoperative pain in other types of surgery.^1,24,28,29We conducted a prospective multicentre cohort study (the CARD-PAIN study) to determine the prevalence of persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin up to 24 months after cardiac surgery and to identify risk factors for the presence and severity of the condition.     

Oral administration of morphine versus ibuprofen to manage postfracture pain in children: a randomized trial

Background:

Recent warnings from Health Canada regarding codeine for children have led to increased use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and morphine for common injuries such as fractures. Our objective was to determine whether morphine administered orally has superior efficacy to ibuprofen in fracture-related pain.

Methods:

We used a parallel group, randomized, blinded superiority design. Children who presented to the emergency department with an uncomplicated extremity fracture were randomly assigned to receive either morphine (0.5 mg/kg orally) or ibuprofen (10 mg/kg) for 24 hours after discharge. Our primary outcome was the change in pain score using the Faces Pain Scale — Revised (FPS-R). Participants were asked to record pain scores immediately before and 30 minutes after receiving each dose.

Results:

We analyzed data from 66 participants in the morphine group and 68 participants in the ibuprofen group. For both morphine and ibuprofen, we found a reduction in pain scores (mean pre–post difference ± standard deviation for dose 1: morphine 1.5 ± 1.2, ibuprofen 1.3 ± 1.0, between-group difference [δ] 0.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) −0.2 to 0.6]; dose 2: morphine 1.3 ± 1.3, ibuprofen 1.3 ± 0.9, δ 0 [95% CI −0.4 to 0.4]; dose 3: morphine 1.3 ± 1.4, ibuprofen 1.4 ± 1.1, δ −0.1 [95% CI −0.7 to 0.4]; and dose 4: morphine 1.5 ± 1.4, ibuprofen 1.1 ± 1.2, δ 0.4 [95% CI −0.2 to 1.1]). We found no significant differences in the change in pain scores between morphine and ibuprofen between groups at any of the 4 time points (p = 0.6). Participants in the morphine group had significantly more adverse effects than those in the ibuprofen group (56.1% v. 30.9%, p < 0.01).

Interpretation:

We found no significant difference in analgesic efficacy between orally administered morphine and ibuprofen. However, morphine was associated with a significantly greater number of adverse effects. Our results suggest that ibuprofen remains safe and effective for outpatient pain management in children with uncomplicated fractures. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01690780","term_id":"NCT01690780"}}NCT01690780.There is ample evidence that analgesia is underused,¹ underprescribed,² delayed in its administration² and suboptimally dosed ³ in clinical settings. Children are particularly susceptible to suboptimal pain management⁴ and are less likely to receive opioid analgesia.⁵ Untreated pain in childhood has been reported to lead to short-term problems such as slower healing⁶ and to long-term issues such as anxiety, needle phobia,⁷ hyperesthesia⁸ and fear of medical care.⁹ The American Academy of Pediatrics has reaffirmed its advocacy for the appropriate use of analgesia for children with acute pain.¹⁰Fractures constitute between 10% and 25% of all injuries.¹¹ The most severe pain after an injury occurs within the first 48 hours, with more than 80% of children showing compromise in at least 1 functional area.¹² Low rates of analgesia have been reported after discharge from hospital.¹³ A recently improved understanding of the pharmacogenomics of codeine has raised significant concerns about its safety,^14,15 and has led to a Food and Drug Administration boxed warning¹⁶ and a Health Canada advisory¹⁷ against its use. Although ibuprofen has been cited as the most common agent used by caregivers to treat musculoskeletal pain,^12,13 there are concerns that its use as monotherapy may lead to inadequate pain management.^6,18 Evidence suggests that orally administered morphine¹³ and other opioids are increasingly being prescribed.¹⁹ However, evidence for the oral administration of morphine in acute pain management is limited.^20,21 Thus, additional studies are needed to address this gap in knowledge and provide a scientific basis for outpatient analgesic choices in children. Our objective was to assess if orally administered morphine is superior to ibuprofen in relieving pain in children with nonoperative fractures.     

Effect of ambient air pollution on the incidence of appendicitis

Background

The pathogenesis of appendicitis is unclear. We evaluated whether exposure to air pollution was associated with an increased incidence of appendicitis.

Methods

We identified 5191 adults who had been admitted to hospital with appendicitis between Apr. 1, 1999, and Dec. 31, 2006. The air pollutants studied were ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and suspended particulate matter of less than 10 μ and less than 2.5 μ in diameter. We estimated the odds of appendicitis relative to short-term increases in concentrations of selected pollutants, alone and in combination, after controlling for temperature and relative humidity as well as the effects of age, sex and season.

Results

An increase in the interquartile range of the 5-day average of ozone was associated with appendicitis (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.25). In summer (July–August), the effects were most pronounced for ozone (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.57), sulfur dioxide (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.03–1.63), nitrogen dioxide (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.20–2.58), carbon monoxide (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.01–1.80) and particulate matter less than 10 μ in diameter (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.05–1.38). We observed a significant effect of the air pollutants in the summer months among men but not among women (e.g., OR for increase in the 5-day average of nitrogen dioxide 2.05, 95% CI 1.21–3.47, among men and 1.48, 95% CI 0.85–2.59, among women). The double-pollutant model of exposure to ozone and nitrogen dioxide in the summer months was associated with attenuation of the effects of ozone (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.01–1.48) and nitrogen dioxide (OR 1.48, 95% CI 0.97–2.24).

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that some cases of appendicitis may be triggered by short-term exposure to air pollution. If these findings are confirmed, measures to improve air quality may help to decrease rates of appendicitis.Appendicitis was introduced into the medical vernacular in 1886.¹ Since then, the prevailing theory of its pathogenesis implicated an obstruction of the appendiceal orifice by a fecalith or lymphoid hyperplasia.² However, this notion does not completely account for variations in incidence observed by age,^3,4 sex,^3,4 ethnic background,^3,4 family history,⁵ temporal–spatial clustering⁶ and seasonality,^3,4 nor does it completely explain the trends in incidence of appendicitis in developed and developing nations.^3,7,8The incidence of appendicitis increased dramatically in industrialized nations in the 19th century and in the early part of the 20th century.¹ Without explanation, it decreased in the middle and latter part of the 20th century.³ The decrease coincided with legislation to improve air quality. For example, after the United States Clean Air Act was passed in 1970,⁹ the incidence of appendicitis decreased by 14.6% from 1970 to 1984.³ Likewise, a 36% drop in incidence was reported in the United Kingdom between 1975 and 1994¹⁰ after legislation was passed in 1956 and 1968 to improve air quality and in the 1970s to control industrial sources of air pollution. Furthermore, appendicitis is less common in developing nations; however, as these countries become more industrialized, the incidence of appendicitis has been increasing.⁷Air pollution is known to be a risk factor for multiple conditions, to exacerbate disease states and to increase all-cause mortality.¹¹ It has a direct effect on pulmonary diseases such as asthma¹¹ and on nonpulmonary diseases including myocardial infarction, stroke and cancer.^11–13 Inflammation induced by exposure to air pollution contributes to some adverse health effects.^14–17 Similar to the effects of air pollution, a proinflammatory response has been associated with appendicitis.^18–20We conducted a case–crossover study involving a population-based cohort of patients admitted to hospital with appendicitis to determine whether short-term increases in concentrations of selected air pollutants were associated with hospital admission because of appendicitis.     

Risk of vascular events in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica

Background:

Polymyalgia rheumatica is one of the most common inflammatory rheumatologic conditions in older adults. Other inflammatory rheumatologic disorders are associated with an excess risk of vascular disease. We investigated whether polymyalgia rheumatica is associated with an increased risk of vascular events.

Methods:

We used the General Practice Research Database to identify patients with a diagnosis of incident polymyalgia rheumatica between Jan. 1, 1987, and Dec. 31, 1999. Patients were matched by age, sex and practice with up to 5 patients without polymyalgia rheumatica. Patients were followed until their first vascular event (cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, peripheral vascular) or the end of available records (May 2011). All participants were free of vascular disease before the diagnosis of polymyalgia rheumatica (or matched date). We used Cox regression models to compare time to first vascular event in patients with and without polymyalgia rheumatica.

Results:

A total of 3249 patients with polymyalgia rheumatica and 12 735 patients without were included in the final sample. Over a median follow-up period of 7.8 (interquartile range 3.3–12.4) years, the rate of vascular events was higher among patients with polymyalgia rheumatica than among those without (36.1 v. 12.2 per 1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4–2.9). The increased risk of a vascular event was similar for each vascular disease end point. The magnitude of risk was higher in early disease and in patients younger than 60 years at diagnosis.

Interpretation:

Patients with polymyalgia rheumatica have an increased risk of vascular events. This risk is greatest in the youngest age groups. As with other forms of inflammatory arthritis, patients with polymyalgia rheumatica should have their vascular risk factors identified and actively managed to reduce this excess risk.Inflammatory rheumatologic disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis,^1,2 systemic lupus erythematosus,^2,3 gout,⁴ psoriatic arthritis^2,5 and ankylosing spondylitis^2,6 are associated with an increased risk of vascular disease, especially cardiovascular disease, leading to substantial morbidity and premature death.^2–6 Recognition of this excess vascular risk has led to management guidelines advocating screening for and management of vascular risk factors.^7–9Polymyalgia rheumatica is one of the most common inflammatory rheumatologic conditions in older adults,¹⁰ with a lifetime risk of 2.4% for women and 1.7% for men.¹¹ To date, evidence regarding the risk of vascular disease in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica is unclear. There are a number of biologically plausible mechanisms between polymyalgia rheumatica and vascular disease. These include the inflammatory burden of the disease,^12,13 the association of the disease with giant cell arteritis (causing an inflammatory vasculopathy, which may lead to subclinical arteritis, stenosis or aneurysms),¹⁴ and the adverse effects of long-term corticosteroid treatment (e.g., diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidemia).^15,16 Paradoxically, however, use of corticosteroids in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica may actually decrease vascular risk by controlling inflammation.¹⁷ A recent systematic review concluded that although some evidence exists to support an association between vascular disease and polymyalgia rheumatica,¹⁸ the existing literature presents conflicting results, with some studies reporting an excess risk of vascular disease^19,20 and vascular death,^21,22 and others reporting no association.^23–26 Most current studies are limited by poor methodologic quality and small samples, and are based on secondary care cohorts, who may have more severe disease, yet most patients with polymyalgia rheumatica receive treatment exclusively in primary care.²⁷The General Practice Research Database (GPRD), based in the United Kingdom, is a large electronic system for primary care records. It has been used as a data source for previous studies,²⁸ including studies on the association of inflammatory conditions with vascular disease²⁹ and on the epidemiology of polymyalgia rheumatica in the UK.³⁰ The aim of the current study was to examine the association between polymyalgia rheumatica and vascular disease in a primary care population.     

Effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce the use of imaging for low-back pain: a systematic review

Background:Rates of imaging for low-back pain are high and are associated with increased health care costs and radiation exposure as well as potentially poorer patient outcomes. We conducted a systematic review to investigate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing the use of imaging for low-back pain.Methods:We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from the earliest records to June 23, 2014. We included randomized controlled trials, controlled clinical trials and interrupted time series studies that assessed interventions designed to reduce the use of imaging in any clinical setting, including primary, emergency and specialist care. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We used raw data on imaging rates to calculate summary statistics. Study heterogeneity prevented meta-analysis.Results:A total of 8500 records were identified through the literature search. Of the 54 potentially eligible studies reviewed in full, 7 were included in our review. Clinical decision support involving a modified referral form in a hospital setting reduced imaging by 36.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 33.2% to 40.5%). Targeted reminders to primary care physicians of appropriate indications for imaging reduced referrals for imaging by 22.5% (95% CI 8.4% to 36.8%). Interventions that used practitioner audits and feedback, practitioner education or guideline dissemination did not significantly reduce imaging rates. Lack of power within some of the included studies resulted in lack of statistical significance despite potentially clinically important effects.Interpretation:Clinical decision support in a hospital setting and targeted reminders to primary care doctors were effective interventions in reducing the use of imaging for low-back pain. These are potentially low-cost interventions that would substantially decrease medical expenditures associated with the management of low-back pain.Current evidence-based clinical practice guidelines recommend against the routine use of imaging in patients presenting with low-back pain.^1–3 Despite this, imaging rates remain high,^4,5 which indicates poor concordance with these guidelines.^6,7Unnecessary imaging for low-back pain has been associated with poorer patient outcomes, increased radiation exposure and higher health care costs.⁸ No short- or long-term clinical benefits have been shown with routine imaging of the low back, and the diagnostic value of incidental imaging findings remains uncertain.^9–12 A 2008 systematic review found that imaging accounted for 7% of direct costs associated with low-back pain, which in 1998 translated to more than US$6 billion in the United States and £114 million in the United Kingdom.¹³ Current costs are likely to be substantially higher, with an estimated 65% increase in spine-related expenditures between 1997 and 2005.¹⁴Various interventions have been tried for reducing imaging rates among people with low-back pain. These include strategies targeted at the practitioner such as guideline dissemination,^15–17 education workshops,^18,19 audit and feedback of imaging use,^7,20,21 ongoing reminders⁷ and clinical decision support.^22–24 It is unclear which, if any, of these strategies are effective.²⁵ We conducted a systematic review to investigate the effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce imaging rates for the management of low-back pain.     

The hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype and the risk of coronary artery disease: results from the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study

Background

Screening for increased waist circumference and hypertriglyceridemia (the hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype) has been proposed as an inexpensive approach to identify patients with excess intra-abdominal adiposity and associated metabolic abnormalities. We examined the relationship between the hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype to the risk of coronary artery disease in apparently healthy individuals.

Methods

A total of 21 787 participants aged 45–79 years were followed for a mean of 9.8 (standard deviation 1.7) years. Coronary artery disease developed in 2109 of them during follow-up. The hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype was defined as a waist circumference of 90 cm or more and a triglyceride level of 2.0 mmol/L or more in men, and a waist circumference of 85 cm or more and a triglyceride level of 1.5 mmol/L or more in women.

Results

Compared with participants who had a waist circumference and triglyceride level below the threshold, those with the hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype had higher blood pressure indices, higher levels of apolipoprotein B and C-reactive protein, lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein A-I, and smaller low-density lipoprotein particles. Among men, those with the hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype had an unadjusted hazard ratio for future coronary artery disease of 2.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.02–2.87) compared with men who did not have the phenotype. Women with the phenotype had an unadjusted hazard ratio of 3.84 (95% CI 3.20–4.62) compared with women who did not have the phenotype.

Interpretation

Among participants from a European cohort representative of a contemporary Western population, the hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype was associated with a deteriorated cardiometabolic risk profile and an increased risk for coronary artery disease.Although obesity is a health hazard, not every obese person has the expected metabolic abnormalities associated with excess body fat.^1,2 Epidemiologic and metabolic studies have shown that the metabolic complications of overweight and obesity are more related to the localization rather than to the amount of total body fat.^3,4 Imaging studies using techniques such as computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging have shown that, among equally obese individuals, those with an excess of intra-abdominal or visceral adipose tissue have metabolic abnormalities and are at increased risk of coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes.^5–7The systematic measurement of waist circumference has been proposed as a crude anthropometric correlate of intra-abdominal adiposity.⁸ However, because waist circumference cannot fully discriminate intra-abdominal from subcutaneous abdominal adiposity, we previously suggested that the presence of elevated triglyceride levels could be used as a marker of “dysfunctional” adipose tissue, intra-abdominal obesity and associated metabolic abnormalities in people with an increased waistline.^9–11 What we had initially described as the hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype — the combination of an increased waist circumference and hypertriglyceridemia —could be a useful and inexpensive screening tool to identify people at increased risk of coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes.^12–14 In this article, we report on the performance of the hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype as a screening tool among participants enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk study.     

Effect of nasal balloon autoinflation in children with otitis media with effusion in primary care: an open randomized controlled trial

Background:Otitis media with effusion is a common problem that lacks an evidence-based nonsurgical treatment option. We assessed the clinical effectiveness of treatment with a nasal balloon device in a primary care setting.Methods:We conducted an open, pragmatic randomized controlled trial set in 43 family practices in the United Kingdom. Children aged 4–11 years with a recent history of ear symptoms and otitis media with effusion in 1 or both ears, confirmed by tympanometry, were allocated to receive either autoinflation 3 times daily for 1–3 months plus usual care or usual care alone. Clearance of middle-ear fluid at 1 and 3 months was assessed by experts masked to allocation.Results:Of 320 children enrolled, those receiving autoinflation were more likely than controls to have normal tympanograms at 1 month (47.3% [62/131] v. 35.6% [47/132]; adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99 to 1.88) and at 3 months (49.6% [62/125] v. 38.3% [46/120]; adjusted RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.83; number needed to treat = 9). Autoinflation produced greater improvements in ear-related quality of life (adjusted between-group difference in change from baseline in OMQ-14 [an ear-related measure of quality of life] score −0.42, 95% CI −0.63 to −0.22). Compliance was 89% at 1 month and 80% at 3 months. Adverse events were mild, infrequent and comparable between groups.Interpretation:Autoinflation in children aged 4–11 years with otitis media with effusion is feasible in primary care and effective both in clearing effusions and improving symptoms and ear-related child and parent quality of life. Trial registration: ISRCTN, No. 55208702.Otitis media with effusion, also known as glue ear, is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear, without symptoms or signs of an acute ear infection. It is often associated with viral infection.^1–3 The prevalence rises to 46% in children aged 4–5 years,⁴ when hearing difficulty, other ear-related symptoms and broader developmental concerns often bring the condition to medical attention.^3,5,6 Middle-ear fluid is associated with conductive hearing losses of about 15–45 dB HL.⁷ Resolution is clinically unpredictable,^8–10 with about a third of cases showing recurrence.¹¹ In the United Kingdom, about 200 000 children with the condition are seen annually in primary care.^12,13 Research suggests some children seen in primary care are as badly affected as those seen in hospital.^7,9,14,15 In the United States, there were 2.2 million diagnosed episodes in 2004, costing an estimated $4.0 billion.¹⁶ Rates of ventilation tube surgery show variability between countries,^17–19 with a declining trend in the UK.²⁰Initial clinical management consists of reasonable temporizing or delay before considering surgery.¹³ Unfortunately, all available medical treatments for otitis media with effusion such as antibiotics, antihistamines, decongestants and intranasal steroids are ineffective and have unwanted effects, and therefore cannot be recommended.^21–23 Not only are antibiotics ineffective, but resistance to them poses a major threat to public health.^24,25 Although surgery is effective for a carefully selected minority,^13,26,27 a simple low-cost, nonsurgical treatment option could benefit a much larger group of symptomatic children, with the purpose of addressing legitimate clinical concerns without incurring excessive delays.Autoinflation using a nasal balloon device is a low-cost intervention with the potential to be used more widely in primary care, but current evidence of its effectiveness is limited to several small hospital-based trials²⁸ that found a higher rate of tympanometric resolution of ear fluid at 1 month.^29–31 Evidence of feasibility and effectiveness of autoinflation to inform wider clinical use is lacking.^13,28 Thus we report here the findings of a large pragmatic trial of the clinical effectiveness of nasal balloon autoinflation in a spectrum of children with clinically confirmed otitis media with effusion identified from primary care.     

Prospective validation of a 1-hour algorithm to rule-out and rule-in acute myocardial infarction using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T assay

Background:We aimed to prospectively validate a novel 1-hour algorithm using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T measurement for early rule-out and rule-in of acute myocardial infarction (MI).Methods:In a multicentre study, we enrolled 1320 patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute MI. The high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm, incorporating baseline values as well as absolute changes within the first hour, was validated against the final diagnosis. The final diagnosis was then adjudicated by 2 independent cardiologists using all available information, including coronary angiography, echocardiography, follow-up data and serial measurements of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T levels.Results:Acute MI was the final diagnosis in 17.3% of patients. With application of the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm, 786 (59.5%) patients were classified as “rule-out,” 216 (16.4%) were classified as “rule-in” and 318 (24.1%) were classified to the “observational zone.” The sensitivity and the negative predictive value for acute MI in the rule-out zone were 99.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 97.6%–99.9%) and 99.9% (95% CI 99.3%–100%), respectively. The specificity and the positive predictive value for acute MI in the rule-in zone were 95.7% (95% CI 94.3%–96.8%) and 78.2% (95% CI 72.1%–83.6%), respectively. The 1-hour algorithm provided higher negative and positive predictive values than the standard interpretation of highsensitivity cardiac troponin T using a single cut-off level (both p < 0.05). Cumulative 30-day mortality was 0.0%, 1.6% and 1.9% in patients classified in the rule-out, observational and rule-in groups, respectively (p = 0.001).Interpretation:This rapid strategy incorporating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T baseline values and absolute changes within the first hour substantially accelerated the management of suspected acute MI by allowing safe rule-out as well as accurate rule-in of acute MI in 3 out of 4 patients. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00470587","term_id":"NCT00470587"}}NCT00470587Acute myocardial infarction (MI) is a major cause of death and disability worldwide. As highly effective treatments are available, early and accurate detection of acute MI is crucial.^1–5 Clinical assessment, 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) and measurement of cardiac troponin levels form the pillars for the early diagnosis of acute MI in the emergency department. Major advances have recently been achieved by the development of more sensitive cardiac troponin assays.^6–15 High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays, which allow measurement of even low concentrations of cardiac troponin with high precision, have been shown to largely overcome the sensitivity deficit of conventional cardiac troponin assays within the first hours of presentation in the diagnosis of acute MI.^6–15 These studies have consistently shown that the classic diagnostic interpretation of cardiac troponin as a dichotomous variable (troponin-negative and troponin-positive) no longer seems appropriate, because the positive predictive value for acute MI of being troponin-positive was only about 50%.^6–15 The best way to interpret and clinically use high-sensitivity cardiac troponin levels in the early diagnosis of acute MI is still debated.^3,5,7In a pilot study, a novel high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm was shown to allow accurate rule-out and rule-in of acute MI within 1 hour in up to 75% of patients.¹¹ This algorithm is based on 2 concepts. First, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T is interpreted as a quantitative variable where the proportion of patients who have acute MI increases with increasing concentrations of cardiac troponin T.^6–15 Second, early absolute changes in the concentrations within 1 hour provide incremental diagnostic information when added to baseline levels, with the combination acting as a reliable surrogate for late concentrations at 3 or 6 hours.^6–15 However, many experts remained skeptical regarding the safety of the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm and its wider applicability.¹⁶ Accordingly, this novel diagnostic concept has not been adopted clinically to date. Because the clinical application of this algorithm would represent a profound change in clinical practice, prospective validation in a large cohort is mandatory before it can be considered for routine clinical use. The aim of this multicentre study was to prospectively validate the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm in a large independent cohort.     

Mediterranean diets and metabolic syndrome status in the PREDIMED randomized trial

Background:

Little evidence exists on the effect of an energy-unrestricted healthy diet on metabolic syndrome. We evaluated the long-term effect of Mediterranean diets ad libitum on the incidence or reversion of metabolic syndrome.

Methods:

We performed a secondary analysis of the PREDIMED trial — a multicentre, randomized trial done between October 2003 and December 2010 that involved men and women (age 55–80 yr) at high risk for cardiovascular disease. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 dietary interventions: a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil, a Mediterranean diet supplemented with nuts or advice on following a low-fat diet (the control group). The interventions did not include increased physical activity or weight loss as a goal. We analyzed available data from 5801 participants. We determined the effect of diet on incidence and reversion of metabolic syndrome using Cox regression analysis to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results:

Over 4.8 years of follow-up, metabolic syndrome developed in 960 (50.0%) of the 1919 participants who did not have the condition at baseline. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome did not differ between participants assigned to the control diet and those assigned to either of the Mediterranean diets (control v. olive oil HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.94–1.30, p = 0.231; control v. nuts HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.92–1.27, p = 0.3). Reversion occurred in 958 (28.2%) of the 3392 participants who had metabolic syndrome at baseline. Compared with the control group, participants on either Mediterranean diet were more likely to undergo reversion (control v. olive oil HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.15–1.58, p < 0.001; control v. nuts HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.08–1.51, p < 0.001). Participants in the group receiving olive oil supplementation showed significant decreases in both central obesity and high fasting glucose (p = 0.02); participants in the group supplemented with nuts showed a significant decrease in central obesity.

Interpretation:

A Mediterranean diet supplemented with either extra virgin olive oil or nuts is not associated with the onset of metabolic syndrome, but such diets are more likely to cause reversion of the condition. An energy-unrestricted Mediterranean diet may be useful in reducing the risks of central obesity and hyperglycemia in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. ISRCTN35739639.Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of 3 or more related cardiometabolic risk factors: central obesity (determined by waist circumference), hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, low plasma high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels and hyperglycemia. Having the syndrome increases a person’s risk for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.^1,2 In addition, the condition is associated with increased morbidity and all-cause mortality.^1,3–5 The worldwide prevalence of metabolic syndrome in adults approaches 25%^6–8 and increases with age,⁷ especially among women,^8,9 making it an important public health issue.Several studies have shown that lifestyle modifications,¹⁰ such as increased physical activity,¹¹ adherence to a healthy diet^12,13 or weight loss,^14–16 are associated with reversion of the metabolic syndrome and its components. However, little information exists as to whether changes in the overall dietary pattern without weight loss might also be effective in preventing and managing the condition.The Mediterranean diet is recognized as one of the healthiest dietary patterns. It has shown benefits in patients with cardiovascular disease^17,18 and in the prevention and treatment of related conditions, such as diabetes,^19–21 hypertension^22,23 and metabolic syndrome.²⁴Several cross-sectional^25–29 and prospective^30–32 epidemiologic studies have suggested an inverse association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and the prevalence or incidence of metabolic syndrome. Evidence from clinical trials has shown that an energy-restricted Mediterranean diet³³ or adopting a Mediterranean diet after weight loss³⁴ has a beneficial effect on metabolic syndrome. However, these studies did not determine whether the effect could be attributed to the weight loss or to the diets themselves.Seminal data from the PREDIMED (PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea) study suggested that adherence to a Mediterranean diet supplemented with nuts reversed metabolic syndrome more so than advice to follow a low-fat diet.³⁵ However, the report was based on data from only 1224 participants followed for 1 year. We have analyzed the data from the final PREDIMED cohort after a median follow-up of 4.8 years to determine the long-term effects of a Mediterranean diet on metabolic syndrome.     

Influence of individual and combined healthy behaviours on successful aging

Background:

Increases in life expectancy make it important to remain healthy for as long as possible. Our objective was to examine the extent to which healthy behaviours in midlife, separately and in combination, predict successful aging.

Methods:

We used a prospective cohort design involving 5100 men and women aged 42–63 years. Participants were free of cancer, coronary artery disease and stroke when their health behaviours were assessed in 1991–1994 as part of the Whitehall II study. We defined healthy behaviours as never smoking, moderate alcohol consumption, physical activity (≥ 2.5 h/wk moderate physical activity or ≥ 1 h/wk vigorous physical activity), and eating fruits and vegetables daily. We defined successful aging, measured over a median 16.3-year follow-up, as good cognitive, physical, respiratory and cardiovascular functioning, in addition to the absence of disability, mental health problems and chronic disease (coronary artery disease, stroke, cancer and diabetes).

Results:

At the end of follow-up, 549 participants had died and 953 qualified as aging successfully. Compared with participants who engaged in no healthy behaviours, participants engaging in all 4 healthy behaviours had 3.3 times greater odds of successful aging (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1–5.1). The association with successful aging was linear, with the odds ratio (OR) per increment of healthy behaviour being 1.3 (95% CI 1.2–1.4; population-attributable risk for 1–4 v. 0 healthy behaviours 47%). When missing data were considered in the analysis, the results were similar to those of our main analysis.

Interpretation:

Although individual healthy behaviours are moderately associated with successful aging, their combined impact is substantial. We did not investigate the mechanisms underlying these associations, but we saw clear evidence of the importance of healthy behaviours for successful aging.Increases in life expectancy make remaining free of disease and in good functional health for as long as possible an important objective for the present and future generations.¹ Most research in this domain has focused on risk factors for single health outcomes, such as mortality, chronic diseases or functioning. However, good health at older ages is a multidimensional concept, having been defined variously with reference to absence of disease and good functional status.^2–5 There is considerable research on disability outcomes at older ages,^2,6–8 but less attention has been paid to successful aging combining favourable functioning outcomes with good mental health and the absence of chronic diseases and disability.^9–13Smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet and physical inactivity are among the top 10 leading risk factors for death and disability in intermediate- and high-income countries.¹⁴ There is increasing interest in the combined effect of these behaviours on health. Studies show that people who engage in multiple unhealthy behaviours have a higher risk of death,^15–23 chronic disease^24–30 and poor cognitive function than people who do not engage in as many unhealthy behaviours.³¹ However, whether healthy behaviours determine good functional status at older ages, combined with the absence of chronic diseases, remains unknown.Our objective was to examine the extent to which individual and combined healthy behaviours in midlife predict successful aging about 16 years later, at 60 years of age or older. We used a comprehensive definition of successful aging that included having good mental health, having good cognitive, physical and cardiorespiratory function, and being free of disability and chronic disease (coronary artery disease, stroke, diabetes and cancer).