Long-Term Neurodevelopmental Outcome of Monochorionic and Matched Dichorionic Twins

Background

Monochorionic (MC) twins are at increased risk for perinatal mortality and serious morbidity due to the presence of placental vascular anastomoses. Cerebral injury can be secondary to haemodynamic and hematological disorders during pregnancy (especially twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) or intrauterine co-twin death) or from postnatal injury associated with prematurity and low birth weight, common complications in twin pregnancies. We investigated neurodevelopmental outcome in MC and dichorionic (DC) twins at the age of two years.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study. Cerebral palsy (CP) was studied in 182 MC infants and 189 DC infants matched for weight and age at delivery, gender, ethnicity of the mother and study center. After losses to follow-up, 282 of the 366 infants without CP were available to be tested with the Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales at 22 months corrected age, all born between January 2005 and January 2006 in nine perinatal centers in The Netherlands. Due to phenotypic (un)alikeness in mono-or dizygosity, the principal investigator was not blinded to chorionic status; perinatal outcome, with exception of co-twin death, was not known to the examiner.

Findings

Four out of 182 MC infants had CP (2.2%) - two of the four CP-cases were due to complications specific to MC twin pregnancies (TTTS and co-twin death) and the other two cases of CP were the result of cystic PVL after preterm birth - compared to one sibling of a DC twin (0.5%; OR 4.2, 95% CI 0.5–38.2) of unknown origin. Follow-up rate of neurodevelopmental outcome by Griffith''s test was 76%. The majority of 2-year-old twins had normal developmental status. There were no significant differences between MC and DC twins. One MC infant (0.7%) had a developmental delay compared to 6 DC infants (4.2%; OR 0.2, 95% 0.0–1.4). Birth weight discordancy did not influence long-term outcome, though the smaller twin had slightly lower developmental scores than its larger co-twin.

Conclusions

There were no significant differences in occurrence of cerebral palsy as well as neurodevelopmental outcome between MC and DC twins. Outcome of MC twins seems favourable in the absence of TTTS or co-twin death.     

Maternal and Perinatal Outcomes of Twin Pregnancy in 23 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Background

Twin pregnancies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) pose a high risk to mothers and newborns due to inherent biological risks and scarcity of health resources. We conducted a secondary analysis of the WHO Global Survey dataset to analyze maternal and perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies and factors associated with perinatal morbidity and mortality in twins.

Methods

We examined maternal and neonatal characteristics in twin deliveries in 23 LMICs and conducted multi-level logistic regression to determine the association between twins and adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes.

Results

279,425 mothers gave birth to 276,187 (98.8%) singletons and 6,476 (1.2%) twins. Odds of severe adverse maternal outcomes (death, blood transfusion, ICU admission or hysterectomy) (AOR 1.85, 95% CI 1.60–2.14) and perinatal mortality (AOR 2.46, 95% CI 1.40–4.35) in twin pregnancies were higher, however early neonatal death (AOR 2.50, 95% CI 0.95–6.62) and stillbirth (AOR 1.22, 95% CI 0.58–2.57) did not reach significance. Amongst twins alone, maternal age <18, poor education and antenatal care, nulliparity, vaginal bleeding, non-cephalic presentations, birth weight discordance >15%, born second, preterm birth and low birthweight were associated with perinatal mortality. Marriage and caesarean section were protective.

Conclusions

Twin pregnancy is a significant risk factor for maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality in low-resource settings; maternal risk and access to safe caesarean section may determine safest mode of delivery in LMICs. Improving obstetric care in twin pregnancies, particularly timely access to safe caesarean section, is required to reduce risk to mother and baby.     

Patterning in Birthweight in India: Analysis of Maternal Recall and Health Card Data

Background

National data on birthweight from birth certificates or medical records are not available in India. The third Indian National Family Health Survey included data on birthweight of children obtained from health cards and maternal recall. This study aims to describe the population that these data represent and compares the birthweight obtained from health cards with maternal recall data in terms of its socioeconomic patterning and as a risk factor for childhood growth failure.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The analytic sample consisted of children aged 0 to 59 months with birthweight data obtained from health cards (n = 3227) and maternal recall (n = 16787). The difference between the card sample and the maternal recall sample in the distribution across household wealth, parental education, caste, religion, gender, and urban residence was compared using multilevel models. We also assessed the ability of birthweight to predict growth failure in infancy and childhood in the two groups. The survey contains birthweight data from a majority of household wealth categories (>5% in every category for recall), both genders, all age groups, all caste groups, all religion groups, and urban and rural dwellers. However, children from the lowest quintile of household wealth were under-represented (4.73% in card and 8.62% in recall samples). Comparison of data across health cards and maternal recall revealed similar social patterning of low birthweight and ability of birthweight to predict growth failure later in life. Children were less likely to be born with low birthweight if they had mothers with over 12 years of education compared to 1–5 years of education with relative risk (RR) of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52, 1.2) in the card sample and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.84) in the recall sample. A 100 gram difference in a child''s birthweight was associated with a decreased likelihood of underweight in both the card (RR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.94, 0.96) and recall (RR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.96, 0.97) samples.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that in the absence of other sources, the data on birthweight in the third Indian National Family Health Survey is valuable for epidemiologic research.     

Hospital Stay as a Proxy Indicator for Severe Injury in Earthquakes: A Retrospective Analysis

Introduction

Earthquakes are the most violent type of natural disasters and injuries are the dominant medical problem in the early phases after earthquakes. However, likely because of poor data availability, high-quality research on injuries after earthquakes is lacking. Length of hospital stay (LOS) has been validated as a proxy indicator for injury severity in high-income settings and could potentially be used in retrospective research of injuries after earthquakes. In this study, we assessed LOS as an adequate proxy indicator for severe injury in trauma survivors of an earthquake.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted using a database of 1,878 injured patients from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Our primary outcome was severe injury, defined as a composite measure of serious injury or resource use. Secondary outcomes were serious injury and resource use, analysed separately. Non-parametric receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analysis was used to test the discriminatory accuracy of LOS when used to identify severe injury. An 0.7<AUC<0.8 was defined as adequate.

Results

Our study shows that LOS discriminatory accuracy is poor for the primary outcome. However, LOS discriminatory accuracy is adequate for resource use, excluding critical orthopaedic interventions and debridement.

Conclusions

Length of hospital stay was not validated as a proxy indicator for severe injury in earthquake survivors. However, LOS was found to be a proxy for major nonorthopaedic surgery and blood transfusion. These findings can be useful for retrospective research on earthquake-injured patients when detailed hospital records are not available.     

The APPLe Study: A Randomized,Community-Based,Placebo-Controlled Trial of Azithromycin for the Prevention of Preterm Birth,with Meta-Analysis

Background

Premature birth is the major cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity in both high- and low-income countries. The causes of preterm labour are multiple but infection is important. We have previously described an unusually high incidence of preterm birth (20%) in an ultrasound-dated, rural, pregnant population in Southern Malawi with high burdens of infective morbidity. We have now studied the impact of routine prophylaxis with azithromycin as directly observed, single-dose therapy at two gestational windows to try to decrease the incidence of preterm birth.

Methods and Findings

We randomized 2,297 pregnant women attending three rural and one peri-urban health centres in Southern Malawi to a placebo-controlled trial of oral azithromycin (1 g) given at 16–24 and 28–32 wk gestation. Gestational age was determined by ultrasound before 24 wk. Women and their infants were followed up until 6 wk post delivery. The primary outcome was incidence of preterm delivery, defined as <37 wk. Secondary outcomes were mean gestational age at delivery, perinatal mortality, birthweight, maternal malaria, and anaemia. Analysis was by intention to treat. There were no significant differences in outcome between the azithromycin group (n = 1,096) and the placebo group (n = 1,087) in respect of preterm birth (16.8% versus 17.4%), odds ratio (OR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (0.76–1.21); mean gestational age at delivery (38.5 versus 38.4 weeks), mean difference 0.16 (−0.08 to 0.40); mean birthweight (3.03 versus 2.99 kg), mean difference 0.04 (−0.005 to 0.08); perinatal deaths (4.3% versus 5.0%), OR 0.85 (0.53–1.38); or maternal malarial parasitaemia (11.5% versus 10.1%), OR 1.11 (0.84–1.49) and anaemia (44.1% versus 41.3%) at 28–32 weeks, OR 1.07 (0.88–1.30). Meta-analysis of the primary outcome results with seven other studies of routine antibiotic prophylaxis in pregnancy (>6,200 pregnancies) shows no effect on preterm birth (relative risk 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.86–1.22).

Conclusions

This study provides no support for the use of antibiotics as routine prophylaxis to prevent preterm birth in high risk populations; prevention of preterm birth requires alternative strategies.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN84023116 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Evaluation of a Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial of a Package of Community-Based Maternal and Newborn Interventions in Mirzapur,Bangladesh

Background

To evaluate a delivery strategy for newborn interventions in rural Bangladesh.

Methods

A cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Mirzapur, Bangladesh. Twelve unions were randomized to intervention or comparison arm. All women of reproductive age were eligible to participate. In the intervention arm, community health workers identified pregnant women; made two antenatal home visits to promote birth and newborn care preparedness; made four postnatal home visits to negotiate preventive care practices and to assess newborns for illness; and referred sick neonates to a hospital and facilitated compliance. Primary outcome measures were antenatal and immediate newborn care behaviours, knowledge of danger signs, care seeking for neonatal complications, and neonatal mortality.

Findings

A total of 4616 and 5241 live births were recorded from 9987 and 11153 participants in the intervention and comparison arm, respectively. High coverage of antenatal (91% visited twice) and postnatal (69% visited on days 0 or 1) home visitations was achieved. Indicators of care practices and knowledge of maternal and neonatal danger signs improved. Adjusted mortality hazard ratio in the intervention arm, compared to the comparison arm, was 1.02 (95% CI: 0.80–1.30) at baseline and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.68–1.12) at endline. Primary causes of death were birth asphyxia (49%) and prematurity (26%). No adverse events associated with interventions were reported.

Conclusion

Lack of evidence for mortality impact despite high program coverage and quality assurance of implementation, and improvements in targeted newborn care practices suggests the intervention did not adequately address risk factors for mortality. The level and cause-structure of neonatal mortality in the local population must be considered in developing interventions. Programs must ensure skilled care during childbirth, including management of birth asphyxia and prematurity, and curative postnatal care during the first two days of life, in addition to essential newborn care and infection prevention and management.

Trial Registration

Clinicaltrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00198627","term_id":"NCT00198627"}}NCT00198627     

Risk Factors of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) after Wenchuan Earthquake: A Case Control Study

Background

Few clues were found in the literature about the independent risk factors for PTSD among earthquake survivors in Sichuan province three years after the 2008 earthquake. Ours was the first case-control study with matching factors of age and distance from the epicenter among survivors age 16 years or older, three years after the catastrophe.

Objectives

To identify independent risk factors for PTSD among earthquake survivors.

Methods

We performed a population-based matched case-control study. The cases were drawn from earthquake areas three years after the Wenchuan earthquake, including 113 cases who met positive criteria for PTSD symptoms according to the PCL-C (PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version) score and 452 controls who did not meet the criteria. Cases and controls were matched individually by birth year (+ three years) and the town they lived in when the earthquake occurred.

Results

Independent risk factors for PTSD symptoms included two-week disease prevalence (odds ratio [OR],1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.18–3.13), witnessing someone being killed in the earthquake (OR, 2.04;95%CI, 1.17–3.58), having no regular income after the earthquake (OR, 0.52; 95%CI, 0.28–0.98), receiving mental health support only one time after the earthquake (OR, 2.43; 95%CI, 1.09–5.42) and lower social support (lower PSSS score) (OR, 0.95; 95%CI, 0.93–0.97).

Conclusion

Earthquake experience, suffering from physical illnesses, lack of stable income, and lower social support were associated with PTSD symptoms.     

Routine Laboratory Results and Thirty Day and One-Year Mortality Risk Following Hospitalization with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Introduction

Several blood tests are performed uniformly in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure and are predictive of the outcomes: complete blood count, electrolytes, renal function, glucose, albumin and uric acid. We sought to evaluate the relationship between routine admission laboratory tests results, patient characteristics and 30-day and one-year mortality of patients admitted for decompensated heart failure and to construct a simple mortality prediction tool.

Methods

A retrospective population based study. Data from seven tertiary hospitals on all admissions with a principal diagnosis of heart failure during the years 2002–2005 throughout Israel were captured.

Results

8,246 patients were included in the study cohort. Thirty day mortality rate was 8.5% (701 patients) and one-year mortality rate was 28.7% (2,365 patients). Addition of five routine laboratory tests results (albumin, sodium, blood urea, uric acid and WBC) to a set of clinical and demographic characteristics improved c-statistics from 0.76 to 0.81 for 30-days and from 0.72 to 0.76 for one-year mortality prediction (both p-values <0.0001). Three dichotomized abnormal laboratory results with highest odds ratio for one-year mortality (hypoalbuminaemia, hyponatremia and elevated blood urea) were used to construct a simple prediction score, capable of discriminating from 1.1% to 21.4% in 30-day and from 11.6% to 55.6% in one-year mortality rates between patients with a score of 0 (1,477 patients) vs. score of 3 (544 patients).

Discussion

A small set of abnormal routine laboratory results upon admission can risk-stratify and independently predict 30-day and one-year mortality in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure.     

Epidemiology of Anorexia Nervosa in Men: A Nationwide Study of Finnish Twins

Background

To examine the epidemiology of anorexia nervosa in men, we screened Finnish male twins born in 1975–79.

Methods and Findings

Men (N = 2122) from FinnTwin16 birth cohorts were screened for lifetime eating disorders by a questionnaire. The screen positives (N = 18), their male co-twins (N = 10) and those with lifetime minimum BMI≤17.5 (N = 21) were administered the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV anorexia nervosa. The incidence rate of anorexia nervosa for the presumed peak age of risk (10–24y) was 15.7 per 100 000 person-years; its lifetime prevalence was 0.24%. All probands had recovered from eating disorders, but suffered from substantial psychiatric comorbidity, which also manifested in their co-twins. Additionally, male co-twins displayed significant dissatisfaction with body musculature, a male-specific feature of body dysmorphic disorder.

Conclusions

Anorexia nervosa in males in the community is more common, transient and accompanied by more substantial comorbidity than previously thought.     

Life events, coping, and posttraumatic stress symptoms among Chinese adolescents exposed to 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China

Purpose

To examine the relationship between negative life events, coping styles, and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among adolescent survivors exposed to 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China.

Methods

A survey was conducted in a sample of 2250 adolescent students from two schools in Dujiangyan District, a seriously damaged area, 20 kilometers away from the epicenter, 6 months after the earthquake. Participants completed a self-administered questionnaire including demographics, negative life events, coping styles, and PTSD symptoms.

Results

Academic pressure was the strongest predictor of adolescents'' PTSD symptoms among all negative life events. Main effects of negative life events, positive coping and negative coping on PTSD symptoms were significant in both younger adolescents and older adolescents, while the moderator effects of two coping styles were found significant only within older adolescents.

Conclusions

Coping may play a role to moderate the relationship between post-earthquake negative life events and PTSD symptom, but the function seems to depend on the age of participants. Psychosocial coping skills training may be important in the prevention and intervention of mental health problems in adolescent survivors of traumatic earthquake.     

Prevalence of PTSD and Depression among Junior Middle School Students in a Rural Town Far from the Epicenter of the Wenchuan Earthquake in China

Context

On May12^th 2008, a devastating earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale, struck Wenchuan county and surrounding areas in China. The prevalence of mental illness among children and adolescents in a rural town far from the earthquake epicenter is unknown.

Objective

To assess the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression among junior middle school students in a rural town Ningqiang county, 327 km from the earthquake epicenter.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A population-based mental health survey was conducted in March, 2009.

Main Outcome Measure

Survey Self-designed General Condition Survey Scale, Children''s Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13), and the Depression Self-rating Scale for Children (DSRSC) were used to sample 1,841 junior middle school students in Ningqiang county, ten months after the Wenchuan earthquake.

Results

The prevalence rate of a high-risk for PTSD was 28.4%, with 32.7% among females, 23.8% among males (female vs. male, p<0.001), 38.6% in the severe exposure group and 24.3% in the mild exposure group (severe vs. mild exposure, p<0.001). For depressive symptoms, the overall prevalence was 19.5%, with 24.0% among females, 14.7% among males, 24.5% in the severe exposure group and 17.5% in the mild exposure group (female vs. male, p<0.001; severe vs. mild exposure, p<0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, factors such as “having felt despair”, or “danger” and “having own house destroyed or damaged” were significantly associated with PTSD symptoms. Female gender and delayed evacuation in females, and earthquake related experiences in males were significantly associated with depression.

Conclusion

Traumatic events experienced during the earthquake were significantly associated with symptoms of PTSD and depression in children and adolescents, ten months after the Wenchuan earthquake. These data highlight a need for mental health services for children and adolescents in rural areas, far from earthquake epicenters.     

Sex-Differential Effect on Infant Mortality of Oral Polio Vaccine Administered with BCG at Birth in Guinea-Bissau. A Natural Experiment

Background

The policy to provide oral polio vaccine (OPV) at birth was introduced in low-income countries to increase coverage. The effect of OPV at birth on overall child mortality was never studied. During a trial of vitamin A supplementation (VAS) at birth in Guinea-Bissau, OPV was not available during several periods. We took advantage of this “natural experiment” to test the effect on mortality of receiving OPV at birth.

Methodology

Between 2002 and 2004, the VAS trial randomised normal-birth-weight infants to 50,000 IU VAS or placebo administered with BCG. Provision of OPV at birth was not part of the trial, but we noted whether the infants received OPV or not. OPV was missing during several periods in 2004. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compute mortality rate ratios (MRR) of children who had received or not received OPV at birth.

Principal Findings

A total of 962 (22.1%) of the 4345 enrolled children did not receive OPV at birth; 179 children died within the first year of life. Missing OPV at birth was associated with a tendency for decreased mortality (adjusted MRR = 0.69 (95% CI = 0.46–1.03)), the effect being similar among recipients of VAS and placebo. There was a highly significant interaction between OPV at birth and sex (p = 0.006). Not receiving OPV at birth was associated with a weak tendency for increased mortality in girls (1.14 (0.70–1.89)) but significantly decreased mortality in boys (0.35 (0.18–0.71)).

Conclusions

In our study OPV at birth had a sex-differential effect on mortality. Poliovirus is almost eradicated and OPV at birth contributes little to herd immunity. A randomised study of the effect of OPV at birth on overall mortality in both sexes is warranted.     

Birth Outcomes of Latin Americans in Two Countries with Contrasting Immigration Admission Policies: Canada and Spain

Background

We delved into the selective migration hypothesis on health by comparing birth outcomes of Latin American immigrants giving birth in two receiving countries with dissimilar immigration admission policies: Canada and Spain. We hypothesized that a stronger immigrant selection in Canada will reflect more favourable outcomes among Latin Americans giving birth in Canada than among their counterparts giving birth in Spain.

Materials and Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional bi-national comparative study. We analyzed birth data of singleton infants born in Canada (2000–2005) (N = 31,767) and Spain (1998–2007) (N = 150,405) to mothers born in Spanish-speaking Latin American countries. We compared mean birthweight at 37–41 weeks gestation, and low birthweight and preterm birth rates between Latin American immigrants to Canada vs. Spain. Regression analysis for aggregate data was used to obtain Odds Ratios and Mean birthweight differences adjusted for infant sex, maternal age, parity, marital status, and father born in same source country.

Results

Latin American women in Canada had heavier newborns than their same-country counterparts giving birth in Spain, overall [adjusted mean birthweight difference: 101 grams; 95% confidence interval (CI): 98, 104], and within each maternal country of origin. Latin American women in Canada had fewer low birthweight and preterm infants than those giving birth in Spain [adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.94 for low birthweight, and 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.93 for preterm birth, respectively].

Conclusion

Latin American immigrant women had better birth outcomes in Canada than in Spain, suggesting a more selective migration in Canada than in Spain.     

Epigenetic signature of birth weight discordance in adult twins

Background

A low birth weight has been extensively related to poor adult health outcomes. Birth weight can be seen as a proxy for environmental conditions during prenatal development. Identical twin pairs discordant for birth weight provide an extraordinary model for investigating the association between birth weight and adult life health while controlling for not only genetics but also postnatal rearing environment. We performed an epigenome-wide profiling on blood samples from 150 pairs of adult monozygotic twins discordant for birth weight to look for molecular evidence of epigenetic signatures in association with birth weight discordance.

Results

Our association analysis revealed no CpG site with genome-wide statistical significance (FDR < 0.05) for either qualitative (larger or smaller) or quantitative discordance in birth weight. Even with selected samples of extremely birth weight discordant twin pairs, no significant site was found except for 3 CpGs that displayed age-dependent intra-pair differential methylation with FDRs 0.014 (cg26856578, p = 3.42e-08), 0.0256 (cg15122603, p = 1.25e-07) and 0.0258 (cg16636641, p = 2.05e-07). Among the three sites, intra-pair differential methylation increased with age for cg26856578 but decreased with age for cg15122603 and cg16636641. There was no genome-wide statistical significance for sex-dependent effects on intra-pair differential methylation in either the whole samples or the extremely discordant twins.

Conclusions

Genome-wide DNA methylation profiling did not reveal epigenetic signatures of birth weight discordance although some sites displayed age-dependent intra-pair differential methylation in the extremely discordant twin pairs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-1062) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Improved response to disasters and outbreaks by tracking population movements with mobile phone network data: a post-earthquake geospatial study in Haiti

Background

Population movements following disasters can cause important increases in morbidity and mortality. Without knowledge of the locations of affected people, relief assistance is compromised. No rapid and accurate method exists to track population movements after disasters. We used position data of subscriber identity module (SIM) cards from the largest mobile phone company in Haiti (Digicel) to estimate the magnitude and trends of population movements following the Haiti 2010 earthquake and cholera outbreak.

Methods and Findings

Geographic positions of SIM cards were determined by the location of the mobile phone tower through which each SIM card connects when calling. We followed daily positions of SIM cards 42 days before the earthquake and 158 days after. To exclude inactivated SIM cards, we included only the 1.9 million SIM cards that made at least one call both pre-earthquake and during the last month of study. In Port-au-Prince there were 3.2 persons per included SIM card. We used this ratio to extrapolate from the number of moving SIM cards to the number of moving persons. Cholera outbreak analyses covered 8 days and tracked 138,560 SIM cards.An estimated 630,000 persons (197,484 Digicel SIM cards), present in Port-au-Prince on the day of the earthquake, had left 19 days post-earthquake. Estimated net outflow of people (outflow minus inflow) corresponded to 20% of the Port-au-Prince pre-earthquake population. Geographic distribution of population movements from Port-au-Prince corresponded well with results from a large retrospective, population-based UN survey. To demonstrate feasibility of rapid estimates and to identify areas at potentially increased risk of outbreaks, we produced reports on SIM card movements from a cholera outbreak area at its immediate onset and within 12 hours of receiving data.

Conclusions

Results suggest that estimates of population movements during disasters and outbreaks can be delivered rapidly and with potentially high validity in areas with high mobile phone use. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Evaluation of Pneumonia Severity and Acute Physiology Scores to Predict ICU Admission and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized for Influenza

Background

The demand for inpatient medical services increases during influenza season. A scoring system capable of identifying influenza patients at low risk death or ICU admission could help clinicians make hospital admission decisions.

Methods

Hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmed influenza were identified over 3 influenza seasons at 25 Ontario hospitals. Each patient was assigned a score for 6 pneumonia severity and 2 sepsis scores using the first data available following their registration in the emergency room. In-hospital mortality and ICU admission were the outcomes. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the sensitivity and specificity for identifying low risk patients (risk of outcome <5%).

Results

The cohort consisted of 607 adult patients. Mean age was 76 years, 12% of patients died (71/607) and 9% required ICU care (55/607). None of the scores examined demonstrated good discriminatory ability (AUC≥0.80). The Pneumonia Severity Index (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.72–0.83) and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (AUC 0.77, 95% 0.71–0.83) demonstrated fair predictive ability (AUC≥0.70) for in-hospital mortality. The best predictor of ICU admission was SMART-COP (AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.67–0.79). All other scores were poor predictors (AUC <0.70) of either outcome. If patients classified as low risk for in-hospital mortality using the PSI were discharged, 35% of admissions would have been avoided.

Conclusions

None of the scores studied were good predictors of in-hospital mortality or ICU admission. The PSI and MEDS score were fair predictors of death and if these results are validated, their use could reduce influenza admission rates significantly.     

Heritability estimates of body size in fetal life and early childhood

Background

The objective was to estimate the heritability for height and weight during fetal life and early childhood in two independent studies, one including parent and singleton offsprings and one of mono- and dizygotic twins.

Methods

This study was embedded in the Generation R Study (n = 3407, singletons) and the Netherlands Twin Register (n = 33694, twins). For the heritability estimates in Generation R, regression models as proposed by Galton were used. In the Twin Register we used genetic structural equation modelling. Parental height and weight were measured and fetal growth characteristics (femur length and estimated fetal weight) were measured by ultrasounds in 2^nd and 3^rd trimester (Generation R only). Height and weight were assessed at multiple time-points from birth to 36 months in both studies.

Results

Heritability estimates for length increased from 2^nd to 3^rd trimester from 13% to 28%. At birth, heritability estimates for length in singletons and twins were both 26% and 27%, respectively, and at 36 months, the estimates for height were 63% and 72%, respectively. Heritability estimates for fetal weight increased from 2^nd to 3^rd trimester from 17% to 27%. For birth weight, heritability estimates were 26% in singletons and 29% in twins. At 36 months, the estimate for twins was 71% and higher than for singletons (42%).

Conclusions

Heritability estimates for height and weight increase from second trimester to infancy. This increase in heritability is observed in singletons and twins. Longer follow-up studies are needed to examine how the heritability develops in later childhood and puberty.