Effect of resource subsidies on predator–prey population dynamics: a mathematical model

The influence of a resource subsidy on predator–prey interactions is examined using a mathematical model. The model arises from the study of a biological system involving arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carcasses (subsidy). In one version of the model, the predator, prey and subsidy all occur in the same location; in a second version, the predator moves between two patches, one containing only the prey and the other containing only the subsidy. Criteria for feasibility and stability of the different equilibrium states are studied both analytically and numerically. At small subsidy input rates, there is a minimum prey carrying capacity needed to support both predator and prey. At intermediate subsidy input rates, the predator and prey can always coexist. At high subsidy input rates, the prey cannot persist even at high carrying capacities. As predator movement increases, the dynamic stability of the predator–prey-subsidy interactions also increases.     

Source–sink dynamics explain the distribution and persistence of an invasive population of common carp across a model Midwestern watershed

Source–sink theory is an ecological framework that describes how site and habitat-specific demographic rates and patch connectivity can explain population structure and persistence across heterogeneous landscapes. Although commonly used in conservation planning, source–sink theory has rarely been applied to the management of invasive species. This study tested whether the common carp, one of the world’s most invasive species, exhibits source–sink dynamics in a representative watershed in the Upper Mississippi River Basin comprised of a dozen interconnected ponds and lakes. To test for source–sink population structure, we used standard fish sampling techniques, tagging, and genetic assignment methods to describe habitat-specific recruitment rates and dispersal. Five years of sampling revealed that while adult carp were found across the entire watershed, reproductive success (the presence of young carp) was restricted to shallow ponds. Additionally, nearly a third of the carp tagged in a representative pond dispersed into the connected deeper lakes, suggesting that ponds in this system serve as sources and lakes as sinks. This possibility was confirmed by microsatellite analysis of carp tissue samples (n = 1041) which revealed the presence of two distinct strains of carp cohabitating in the lakes, whose natal origins could be traced back to one of two pond systems, with many adult carp attempting to migrate back into these natal ponds to spawn. We conclude that the distribution and persistence of invasive carp in complex interconnected systems may often be driven by source–sink dynamics and that their populations could be controlled by suppressing reproduction in source habitats or by disrupting dispersal pathways, instead of culling individuals from sink habitats.     

Population dynamics and resource use of red deer after release from harvesting in New?Zealand

Despite periods of extensive government-funded control, fluctuating commercial exploitation and ongoing recreational hunting, little is known about how red deer (Cervus elaphus scoticus L?nnberg) in New?Zealand respond to the cessation of harvesting in terms of population growth rate and resource use. We describe the population dynamics and resource use of red deer in a montane catchment over 5?years (1962?67) following cessation of intensive government-funded control in 1961. Locations and sex?age classes of deer were observed monthly along a fixed route in the Harper-Avoca catchment, inland Canterbury. A total of 2036 red deer groups were observed. The number of groups observed annually increased during the study but no trends in median (2 or 3) or modal (1 or 2) group sizes were found. Population growth rates (r) of deer were extraordinarily high in the first two years (e.g. 2.33 ? 0.22 for adult females and 1.61 ? 0.23 for adult males), but decreased in subsequent years and were not biologically possible without substantial immigration and/or changes in detectability of deer. Sexual segregation and selection of vegetation types (alpine grassland, montane grassland, and forest) and 10 topographic landforms showed stronger intra-annual than inter-annual patterns. Segregation was greatest in spring and summer, least in the rut, and variable in winter. In all seasons, sexual segregation was greatest at 25- and 50-ha scales, moderate at 100-ha, and absent at the 500- and 1000-ha scales. Selection of vegetation types also varied seasonally, with deer of both sexes preferring montane grasslands in spring and summer and alpine grasslands in the rut. Backslopes were preferred landforms in spring and summer, spurs during spring and the rut, and hollows during the rut. Our results highlight the need to consider spatial scale, immigration, and detectability in the design of red deer culling and harvesting programmes. Studies of home-range size and use, migration patterns, dispersal rates and distances are required to better understand the impacts of red deer on New?Zealand ecosystems and the effects of management on red deer populations.     

Population dynamics of Bemisia tabaci (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) parasitoids on cassava mosaic disease–resistant and susceptible varieties

Three field trials were conducted at Namulonge Agricultural and Animal Production Research Institute to investigate the population dynamics of Bemisia tabaci Gennadius and its associated aphelinid parasitoids in Uganda. Results showed that more whitefly occurred on the cassava mosaic disease-resistant variety, (Nase 4) compared to the susceptible variety, (Ebwanatereka). Two species of aphelinid parasitoids, Eretmocerus mundus Mercet and Encarsia sophia Girault and Dodd, were identified during the study. Overall percent parasitism did not differ significantly (P>0.05) between varieties in all the trials, but significant differences occurred at 13, 15 and 21 weeks after planting during late season (2000), 18 weeks after planting during early season (2001), and 8 weeks after planting during late season (2001). The trends in the build up in numbers of both parasitoids species and apparent parasitism were similar, differed significantly on certain dates. It was, however, noted that percent parasitism decreased with nymph number. The significance of this phenomenon on the potential use of these aphelinid parasitoids as biocontrol agents of the cassava whitefly is discussed.     

Effect of Cigarette Smoking and Passive Smoking on Hearing Impairment: Data from a Population–Based Study

Objectives

In the present study, we aimed to determine the effect of both active and passive smoking on the prevalence of the hearing impairment and the hearing thresholds in different age groups through the analysis of data collected from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES).

Study Design

Cross-sectional epidemiological study.

Methods

The KNHANES is an ongoing population study that started in 1998. We included a total of 12,935 participants aged ≥19 years in the KNHANES, from 2010 to 2012, in the present study. Pure-tone audiometric (PTA) testing was conducted and the frequencies tested were 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 kHz. Smoking status was categorized into three groups; current smoking group, passive smoking group and non-smoking group.

Results

In the current smoking group, the prevalence of speech-frequency bilateral hearing impairment was increased in ages of 40−69, and the rate of high frequency bilateral hearing impairment was elevated in ages of 30−79. When we investigated the impact of smoking on hearing thresholds, we found that the current smoking group had significantly increased hearing thresholds compared to the passive smoking group and non-smoking groups, across all ages in both speech-relevant and high frequencies. The passive smoking group did not have an elevated prevalence of either speech-frequency bilateral hearing impairment or high frequency bilateral hearing impairment, except in ages of 40s. However, the passive smoking group had higher hearing thresholds than the non-smoking group in the 30s and 40s age groups.

Conclusion

Current smoking was associated with hearing impairment in both speech-relevant frequency and high frequency across all ages. However, except in the ages of 40s, passive smoking was not related to hearing impairment in either speech-relevant or high frequencies.     

Climate and landscape explain richness patterns depending on the type of species’ distribution data

Understanding the patterns of species richness and their environmental drivers, remains a central theme in ecological research and especially in the continental scales where many conservation decisions are made. Here, we analyzed the patterns of species richness from amphibians, reptiles and mammals at the EU level. We used two different data sources for each taxon: expert-drawn species range maps, and presence/absence atlases. As environmental drivers, we considered climate and land cover. Land cover is increasingly the focus of research, but there still is no consensus on how to classify land cover to distinct habitat classes, so we analyzed the CORINE land cover data with three different levels of thematic resolution (resolution of classification scheme ˗ less to more detailed). We found that the two types of species richness data explored in this study yielded different richness maps. Although, we expected expert-drawn range based estimates of species richness to exceed those from atlas data (due to the assumption that species are present in all locations throughout their region), we found that in many cases the opposite is true (the extreme case is the reptiles where more than half of the atlas based estimates were greater than the expert-drawn range based estimates). Also, we detected contrasting information on the richness drivers of biodiversity patterns depending on the dataset used. For atlas based richness estimates, landscape attributes played more important role than climate while for expert-drawn range based richness estimates climatic variables were more important (for the ectothermic amphibians and reptiles). Finally we found that the thematic resolution of the land cover classification scheme, also played a role in quantifying the effect of land cover diversity, with more detailed thematic resolution increasing the relative contribution of landscape attributes in predicting species richness.     

When and where to count? Implications of migratory connectivity and nonbreeding distribution to population censuses in a migratory bird population

Migratory connectivity is a metric of the co-occurrence of migratory animals originating from different breeding sites, and like their spatial dispersion, can vary substantially during the annual cycle. Together, both these properties affect the optimal times and sites of population censusing. We tracked taiga bean geese (Anser fabalis fabalis) during 2014–2021 to study their migratory connectivity and nonbreeding movements and determine optimal periods to assess the size of their main flyway population. We also compared available census data with tracking data, to examine how well two existing censuses covered the population. Daily Mantel's correlation between breeding and nonbreeding sites lay between 0 and 0.5 during most of the nonbreeding season, implying birds from different breeding areas were not strongly separated at other times in the annual cycle. However, the connectivity was higher among birds from the westernmost breeding areas compared to the birds breeding elsewhere. Daily Minimum Convex Polygons showed tracked birds were highly aggregated at census times, confirming their utility. The number of tracked birds absent at count sites during the censuses however exceeded numbers double-counted at several sites, indicating that censuses might have underestimated the true population size. Our results show that connectivity can vary in different times during the nonbreeding period, and should be studied throughout the annual cycle. Our results also confirm previous studies, which have found that estimates using marked individuals usually produce higher population size estimates than total counts. This should be considered when using total counts to assess population sizes in the future.     

Influence of edge on predator–prey distribution and abundance

I investigated the effect of spatial configuration on distribution and abundance of invertebrate trophic groups by counting soil arthropods under boxes (21 × 9.5 cm) arranged in six different patterns that varied in the amount of edge (137–305 cm). I predicted fewer individuals from the consumer trophic group (Collembola) in box groups with greater amount of edge. This prediction was based on the assumption that predators (mites, ants, spiders, centipedes) select edge during foraging and thereby reduce abundance of the less mobile consumer group under box patterns with greater edge. Consumer abundance (Collembola) was not correlated with amount of edge. Among the predator groups, mite, ant and centipede abundance related to the amount of edge of box groups. However, in contrast to predictions, abundance of these predators was negatively correlated with amount of edge in box patterns. All Collembola predators, with the exception of ants, were less clumped in distribution than Collembola. The results are inconsistent with the view that predators used box edges to predate the less mobile consumer trophic group. Alternative explanations for the spatial patterns other than predator–prey relations include (1) a negative relationship between edge and moisture, (2) a positive relationship between edge and detritus decomposition (i.e. mycelium as food for the consumer group), and (3) a negative relationship between edge and the interstices between adjacent boxes. Landscape patterns likely affect microclimate, food, and predator–prey relations and, therefore, future experimental designs need to control these factors individually to distinguish among alternative hypotheses.     

Global dynamics of a mutualism–competition model with one resource and multiple consumers

Journal of Mathematical Biology - Recent simulation modeling has shown that species can coevolve toward clusters of coexisting consumers exploiting the same limiting resource or resources, with...     

Diet and reproductive success of Adélie and chinstrap penguins: linking response of predators to prey population dynamics

The diet and reproductive performance of two sympatric penguin species were studied at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands between 1997 and 2001. Each year, Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and chinstrap (P. antarctica) penguins fed almost exclusively (>99% by mass) on Antarctic krill; however, there was considerable inter-annual variation in reproductive output. In 1998, chinstrap penguins were adversely affected by extensive sea-ice in the vicinity of the colony, whereas Adélie penguins were unaffected by this. However, in 2000, both species suffered reduced reproductive output. Detailed analysis of the population-size structure of krill in the diet indicated a lack of recruitment of small krill into the population since 1996. A simple model of krill growth and mortality indicated that the biomass represented by the last recruiting cohort would decline dramatically between 1999 and 2000. Thus, despite the lack of a change in the proportion of krill in the diet, the population demographics of the krill population suggested that the abundance of krill may have fallen below the level required to support normal breeding success of penguins sometime before or during the 2000 breeding season. The role of marine predators as indicator species is greatly enhanced when studies provide data reflecting not only the consequences of changes in the ecosystem but also those data that elucidate the causes of such changes.     

A birth–death model of ageing: from individual-based dynamics to evolutive differential inclusions

Journal of Mathematical Biology - Ageing’s sensitivity to natural selection has long been discussed because of its apparent negative effect on an individual’s fitness. Thanks to the...     

Wavespeed in reaction–diffusion systems, with applications to chemotaxis and population pressure

We present a method based on the Melnikov function used in dynamical systems theory to determine the wavespeed of travelling waves in perturbed reaction–diffusion systems. We study reaction–diffusion systems which are subject to weak nontrivial perturbations in the reaction kinetics, in the diffusion coefficient, or with weak active advection. We find explicit formulæ for the wavespeed and illustrate our theory with two examples; one in which chemotaxis gives rise to nonlinear advection and a second example in which a positive population pressure results in both a density-dependent diffusion coefficient and a nonlinear advection. Based on our theoretical results we suggest an experiment to distinguish between chemotactic and population pressure in bacterial colonies.     

Interaction of fast and slow dynamics in endocrine control systems with an application to β-cell dynamics

Endocrine dynamics spans a wide range of time scales, from rapid responses to physiological challenges to with slow responses that adapt the system to the demands placed on it. We outline a non-linear averaging procedure to extract the slower dynamics in a way that accounts properly for the non-linear dynamics of the faster time scale and is applicable to a hierarchy of more than two time scales, although we restrict our discussion to two scales for the sake of clarity. The procedure is exact if the slow time scale is infinitely slow (the dimensionless ε-quantity is the period of the fast time scale fluctuation times an upper bound to the slow time scale rate of change). However, even for an imperfect separation of time scales we find that this construction provides an excellent approximation for the slow-time dynamics at considerably reduced computational cost. Besides the computation advantage, the averaged equation provided a qualitative insight into the interaction of the time scales. We demonstrate the procedure and its advantages by applying the theory to the model described by Toli? et al. [I.M. Toli?, E. Mosekilde, J. Sturis, Modeling the insulin–glucose feedback system: the significance of pulsatile insulin secretion, J. Theor. Biol. 207 (2000) 361–375.] for ultradian dynamics of the glucose–insulin homeostasis feedback system, extended to include β-cell dynamics. We find that the dynamics of the β-cell mass are dependent not only on the glycemic load (amount of glucose administered to the system), but also on the way this load is applied (i.e. three meals daily versus constant infusion), effects that are lost in the inappropriate methods used by the earlier authors. Furthermore, we find that the loss of the protection against apoptosis conferred by insulin that occurs at elevated levels of insulin has a functional role in keeping the β-cell mass in check without compromising regulatory function. We also find that replenishment of β-cells from a rapidly proliferating pool of cells, as opposed to the slow turn-over which characterises fully differentiated β-cells, is essential to the prevention of type 1 diabetes.     

Intra- and interspecific density dependence mediates weather effects on the population dynamics of a plant–insect herbivore system

Temperature and precipitation are two major factors determining arthropod population densities, but the effects from these climate variables are seldom evaluated in the same study system and in combination with inter- and intraspecific density dependence. In this study, I used a 19 year time series on plant variables (shoot height and flowering incidence) and insect density in order to understand direct and indirect effects of climatic fluctuations on insect population densities. The study system includes two closely related leaf beetle species (Galerucella spp.) and a flower feeding weevil Nanophyes marmoratus attacking the plant purple loosestrife Lythrum salicaria. Results suggest that both intraspecific density dependence and weather variables affected Galerucella population densities, with interactive effects of rain and temperature on insect densities that depended on the timing relative to insect life cycles. In spring, high temperatures increased Galerucella densities only when combined with high rain, as low rain implies a high drought risk. Low temperatures are only beneficial if combined with little rain, as high rain cause chilly and wet conditions that are bad for insects. In summer, interactive effects of rain and temperature are different because high temperatures and little rain cause drought that induce wilting in plants, thus reducing food availability for the leaf feeding larvae. In contrast, the density of the flower feeding weevil was less affected by temperature and precipitation directly, and more indirectly interspecific density dependent effects through reduced resource availability caused by previous Galerucella damage.     

Spatial distribution of microalgae in marine systems: A reaction–diffusion model

In this paper, we have proposed a reaction–diffusion system of partial differential equations which model the plankton-nutrient interaction mediated by a toxin-determined functional response. It has been established that microalgae, a clean and green source of energy, can be potentially used for carbon capture and sequestration. The common biofuels (bio-diesel and ethanol) are efficiently extracted from microalgae of different shapes and sizes. A spatio-temporal model has been presented to guide exploration and harvesting of microalgae (e.g., dinoflagellates, cilliates, chlorella, etc.). The spatial distribution of the phytoplankton (microalgae) is determined by growth pattern of the biotic subsystem (phytoplankton and zooplankton); e.g., whether it is oscillatory or aperiodic. The model incorporates a toxin-determined functional response of the zooplankton, which can be parametrized for specific phytoplankton–zooplankton combinations in different aquatic bodies such as ponds, seas, and oceans. The present model does not take into account higher zooplankton’s role in maintaining the core subsystem. The temporal model is analytically investigated in terms of the existence criteria and stability analysis (both linear and nonlinear) of the possible equilibria and the spatio-temporal model is studied in terms of global stability, Turing instability and existence of Hopf-bifurcation which help us to explore the dynamical behavior of the spatial model system. Numerical simulations are carried out to support the obtained theoretical results. Simulation experiments and computed densities thereof (equal densities are codes by same color) suggest that the spatial distribution of microalgae is complex; e.g., spatial density of microalgae varies chaotically for certain parameter sets. Harvesting schedule can be designed based on information thus derived. It should be implemented carefully in case the spatial density distribution is chaotic.The sustainability of the marine system for future use has been the prime concern. Parameters of harvesting strategy (time, intensity and technology) are determined in such a way that exploitation causes minimal damage to the environment and the yield of the harvest is maximal. Future studies would consider larger carnivorous fishes (e.g., Squids, Dolphins) on system’s dynamics. The effect of oceanic noise and colloidal swarming of zooplankton in the presence of bacteria will also be incorporated.     

Erratum to: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.     

Demography in relation to population density in two herbivorous marsupials: testing for source–sink dynamics versus independent regulation of population size

We compared demography of populations along gradients of population density in two medium-sized herbivorous marsupials, the common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula and the rufous bettong Aepyprymnus rufescens, to test for net dispersal from high density populations (acting as sources) to low density populations (sinks). In both species, population density was positively related to soil fertility, and variation in soil fertility produced large differences in population density of contiguous populations. We predicted that if source–sink dynamics were operating over this density gradient, we should find higher immigration rates in low-density populations, and positive relationships of measures of individual fitness—body condition, reproductive output, juvenile growth rates and survivorship—to population density. This was predicted because under source–sink dynamics, immigration from high-density sites would hold population density above carrying capacity in low-density sites. The study included 13 populations of these two species, representing a more than 50-fold range of density for each species, but we found that individual fitness, immigration rates and population turnover were similar in all populations. We conclude that net dispersal from high to low density populations had little influence on population dynamics in these species; rather, all populations appeared to be independently regulated at carrying capacity, with a balanced exchange of dispersers among populations. These two species have suffered recent reductions in range, and they are ecologically similar to other species that have declined to extinction in inland Australia. It has been argued that part of the cause of the vulnerability of species like these is that they exhibit source–sink dynamics, and disturbance to source habitats can therefore cause large-scale population collapses. The results of our study argue against this interpretation.     

Large-scale synchrony of gap dynamics and the distribution of understory tree species in maple–beech forests

Large-scale synchronous variations in community dynamics are well documented for a vast array of organisms, but are considerably less understood for forest trees. Because of temporal variations in canopy gap dynamics, forest communities—even old-growth ones—are never at equilibrium at the stand scale. This paucity of equilibrium may also be true at the regional scale. Our objectives were to determine (1) if nonequilibrium dynamics caused by temporal variations in the formation of canopy gaps are regionally synchronized, and (2) if spatiotemporal variations in canopy gap formation affect the relative abundance of tree species in the understory. We examined these questions by analyzing variations in the suppression and release history of Acer saccharum Marsh. and Fagus grandifolia Ehrh. from 481 growth series of understory saplings taken from 34 mature stands. We observed that (1) the proportion of stems in release as a function of time exhibited a U-shaped pattern over the last 35 years, with the lowest levels occurring during 1975–1985, and that (2) the response to this in terms of species composition was that A. saccharum became more abundant at sites that had the highest proportion of stems in release during 1975–1985. We concluded that the understory dynamics, typically thought of as a stand-scale process, may be regionally synchronized.