Population suppression for control of the blowfly Lucilia sericata and sheep blowfly strike

Abstract.

• 1 The control of ovine myiasis by suppression of populations of the blowfly Lucifia sericata was investigated experimentally on three farms in the south-west of England in 1992 and 1993.
• 2 In blind trials, sheep on one farm (control) were given two doses of placebo, on a second two doses of the larvicide cyromazine (Vetrazin®, CibaGeigy), and on a third cyromazine and a subsequent dose of placebo.
• 3 The first treatment was given shortly before the predicted spring emergence of L.sericata and the second shortly before the predicted emergence of the second generation. Previous simulation analysis had identified strategic early-season treatment as the optimum for blowfly population suppression.
• 4 On both treatment farms significantly smaller L.sericata populations were recorded throughout 1992 and the incidence of strike was significantly lower than on the control farm. The results show that appropriate early-season timing of sheep treatment can suppress populations of L.sericata and could be used by farmers to reduce the incidence of blowfly strike.
• 5 The results suggest, however, that the effectiveness of population suppression and strike incidence may have been influenced by immigration into the control areas and by adverse weather, the latter changing the susceptibility of sheep to strike and resulting in rising strike incidence even when L.sericata population densities were low. In practice, therefore, blowfly population suppression should be employed as a component of an integrated strike management programme.

     

Traumatic Myiasis Caused by an Association of Sarcophaga tibialis (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) and Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in a Domestic Cat in Italy

We describe here a rare case of traumatic myiasis occurred in August 2014, caused by an association of 2 Diptera species, Sarcophaga tibialis Macquart (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) and Lucilia sericata (Meigen) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), in a domestic cat in northern Italy. Species identification was based on adult male morphology. The present case is the first report of S. tibialis as an agent of myiasis in Italy, and also the first ever report of myiasis caused by an association of S. tibialis and L. sericata. The cat developed an extensive traumatic myiasis in a large wound on the rump, which was treated pharmacologically and surgically. The biology, ecology, and distribution of S. tibialis and L. sericata are also discussed. A literature review is provided on cases of myiasis caused by S. tibialis, and cases of myiasis by L. sericata involving cats worldwide and humans and animals in Italy.     

Climate change and livestock parasites: integrated management of sheep blowfly strike in a warmer environment

The incidence of parasite‐mediated livestock disease is the result of a complex interaction of factors such as parasite and host abundance, host susceptibility, climate and, critically, farmer husbandry and intervention strategies, all of which change seasonally in space and time. Given the complexity of the interacting factors, the effects of environment changes on disease incidence are hard to predict, as accordingly are the optimal husbandry responses required to ameliorate any effects. Here a model system is used to explore these issues. Cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) is common disease of livestock and would be expected to be highly sensitive to even small changes in climate; it provides a good model for highlighting the problems inherent in attempting to predict the effect of climate change on livestock disease incidence. For this, a stochastic simulation model is used to examine the changes in the seasonal incidence of ovine cutaneous myiasis on farms in the United Kingdom and the likely effects of changes in husbandry and control strategies. The simulations show that the range of elevated temperatures predicted by current climate change scenarios result in an elongated blowfly season with earlier spring emergence and a higher cumulative incidence of strike. Overall, higher temperatures increased strike incidence disproportionately in ewes in early summer, but had relatively less direct effect on the pattern of lamb strike incidence; a +3 °C increase in average temperature approximately doubles the cumulative incidence of strike in lambs but results in four times more strikes in ewes. A range of strike management options is examined and the models show that changes in husbandry practices are also likely to have an important effect in reducing early season ewe strike incidences. The simulations suggest that integrated changes in husbandry practices are likely to be able to manage expected increases in strike, given the range of climate changes currently predicted.     

Comparison of traps for the control of sheep blowfly in the U.K.

The ability of three commercially available trap types to catch Lucilia (Diptera: Calliphoridae) blowflies was assessed on three sheep farms in southwest England in 2008. The aim was to evaluate their relative value for the control of ovine cutaneous myiasis (sheep blowfly strike) on farms. There was a highly significant difference between the total number of female Lucilia caught per day by the traps, with an Agrilure Trap (Agrimin Ltd, Brigg, U.K.) catching more than the other trap types (Rescue Disposable Fly Trap, Sterling International, Spokane, U.S.A.; Redtop Trap, Miller Methods, Johannesburg, South Africa). However, there was no significant difference between the traps in the numbers of female Lucilia sericata (Meigen) caught. Nevertheless, consideration of the rate at which female L. sericata were caught over time showed that the Agrilure trap did not begin catching until about 30 days after its initial deployment. It subsequently caught L. sericata at a faster rate than the other two traps. The data suggest that the freeze‐dried liver bait used in the Agrilure trap required a period of about 30 days to become fully rehydrated and decompose to the degree required to attract and catch L. sericata. Once the bait was attractive, however, the trap outperformed the other two traps in terms of the rate of L. sericata capture. The Agrilure trap would appear to be the most effective of the designs tested for use against sheep blowfly and blowfly strike in the U.K., but care would be needed to ensure that the traps were deployed in advance of the blowfly season so that the bait was suitably aged when trapping was required.     

A Case of Oral Myiasis Caused by Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in Korea

We report here a case of oral myiasis in the Republic of Korea. The patient was a 37-year-old man with a 30-year history of Becker''s muscular dystrophy. He was intubated due to dyspnea 8 days prior to admission to an intensive care unit (ICU). A few hours after the ICU admission, 43 fly larvae were found during suction of the oral cavity. All maggots were identified as the third instars of Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) by morphology. We discussed on the characteristics of myiasis acquired in Korea, including the infection risk and predisposing factors.     

Canine Wound Myiasis Caused by Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in Korea

Myiasis is a relatively common infection of animals kept as pets, although only 1 case of canine myiasis has been described so far in the Republic of Korea. In the present study, we report an additional case of canine wound myiasis with identification of its causative agent, Lucilia sericata. An 8-year-old male Siberian husky dog was referred with anorexia, vomiting, and diarrhea to the Chungbuk National University Veterinary Medical Center, Cheongju-si (city), Chungcheongbuk-do (province), Korea in July 2013. Physical examination indicated the patient had a deep wound filled with a maggot swarm as a left gluteal lesion. A total of 216 maggots were removed by forceps, and the wounded area was sponged with gauzes and disinfected with 70% alcohol and a povidone-iodine solution. After daily care and suturing the wound, the patient was discharged at day 19 after admission. Recovered worms possessed morphological characteristics similar to those of L. sericata, namely, a sub-cylindrical body with 6–8 lobed anterior spiracles, round shaped with a button surrounded by a peritremal ring with no gaps, and similar distances between dorsal, median, and outer papillae of the 12th segment. Additionally, cox1 partial sequences (528 bp) obtained in the present study showed 100% identity with those of L. sericata (GenBank no. {"type":"entrez-nucleotide","attrs":{"text":"KT272854.1","term_id":"992320795","term_text":"KT272854.1"}}KT272854.1). L. sericata is indicated as a pathogen of myiasis infection not only in humans, but also in animals kept as pets in Korea.     

How vulnerable are holoparasitic plants with obligate hosts to negative climate change impacts?

One of the anthropogenic causes affecting species distribution is climate change, which has significant implications for species conservation. However, little is known about the effects of changes in parasitic plant distribution on community-level interactions. Parasitic flowering plants make a limited numerical contribution to biodiversity. Their lifestyle may exhibit a moderate to the high degree of host dependence. Because of this host dependence, parasites may be more affected by environmental changes, such as climate change, compared to autotrophic representatives. To our knowledge, the effects of different climate change scenarios and their environmental variables on parasitic plants and their hosts have not yet been studied. This study aimed to construct a model which shows the current and future potential effects of climate change on the distribution of the two holoparasitic plants Hydnora abyssinica A.Br., and H. africana Thunb. in comparison to their respective Fabaceae and Euphorbiaceae hosts. We projected the future distribution of these species and their host plants using five models, nine bioclimatic, and five environmental variables. The global circulation model (CMIP5) for the years 2050 and 2070, applying two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projected a 41–64% contraction of suitable habitats for H. abyssinica. For H. africana, more stable conditions are estimated, with a 12–28% contraction in suitable habitats, making this species putatively less prone to climate change effects, although this species has a more restricted distribution compared to H. abyssinica. Because climate change could affect the host differently than the parasites, the impact on the parasite could potentially be exacerbated due to host plant dependence. The models predict that the host plant distribution will be less affected, except for Vachelia Karroo, Vachellia xanthophloea, and Euphorbia gregaria, which indicated high contraction (40–66%). The predicted host species distribution ranges will only partially overlap with the respective distribution of the parasite.     

Efficient germ-line transformation of the economically important pest species Lucilia cuprina and Lucilia sericata (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The green blowfly species Lucilia cuprina and Lucilia sericata are economically important pests for the sheep industries of Australia and New Zealand. L. cuprina has long been considered a good target for a genetic pest management program. In addition, L. sericata maggots are used in the cleaning of wounds and necrotic tissue of patients suffering from ulcers that are difficult to treat by other methods. Development of efficient transgenesis methods would greatly facilitate the development of strains ideal for genetic control programs or could potentially improve “maggot therapy”. We have previously reported the germ-line transformation of L. cuprina and the design of a “female killing system” that could potentially be applied to this species. However, the efficiency of transformation obtained was low and transformed lines were difficult to detect due to the low expression of the EGFP marker used. Here we describe an efficient and reliable method for germ-line transformation of L. cuprina using new piggyBac vector and helper plasmids containing the strong promoter from the L. cuprina hsp83 gene to drive expression of the transposase and fluorescent protein marker gene. We also report, for the first time, the germ-line transformation of L. sericata using the new piggyBac vector/helper combination.     

Changes in the potential habitats of 10 dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the Taiwan-Japan archipelago

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change remains elusive in the species-rich Taiwan-Japan archipelago. We predicted potential habitats (PHs) of ten dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species by using the current and twenty potential climate change scenarios using generalised additive models. The presence/absence records of each species, extracted from vegetation database, were used as response variables. Four climatic and one spatial variables were used as explanatory variables. The results showed that the interaction terms of spatial variable, indicating historical range shifts or species interactions, restricted the distribution of all the target species as much as that by the each climatic variable. The PHs of all the target species were predicted to consistently increase, and in particular, to expand northward and upward to the cool temperate zone. However, the PHs were predicted to decrease within the range of 23.6–38.1 % in the Ryukyu Islands for Castanopsis sieboldii and Elaeocarpus japonica, respectively, and within the range of 32.4–42.3 % in Taiwan for Camellia japonica and Distylium racemosum, respectively. These findings suggest that the four species will be vulnerable at the southern range limits; however, the remaining six species will potentially increase within the PH areas in the future at all regions.     

Sheep blowfly strike: the cost of control in relation to risk

Sheep blowfly strike (ovine cutaneous myiasis) is a widespread economic and welfare problem in sheep husbandry in many parts of the world. Strike incidence is determined by a complex interaction of fly abundance, host susceptibility and climate, combined with farmer husbandry and intervention strategies. Sheep farmers adopt a range of approaches to the type and timing of the management used for the control of blowfly strike, the rational basis for which is often not robust. Here a deterministic model, based on existing data relating to fly abundance, seasonal risk and strike incidence, is used to compare the variable costs associated with different strike management strategies. The model shows that not employing prophylactic treatment is the lowest cost strategy only where strike risk is low. In all other circumstances, prophylactic treatment incurs lower costs than not doing so, because the deaths associated with strike outweigh the costs of prophylactic treatment. Lamb treatment, in particular, has a substantial effect on strike and cost reduction, since lambs are the most abundant age-class of animals and are at the highest risk over the period when fly abundance is the greatest. Early-season treatment of ewes before shearing is also an important component of the lowest cost strategies, particularly when the blowfly season is extended. While the rational choice of the most appropriate strike management strategy is essential in the context of farm economics, welfare considerations lend added importance to treatment decisions that reduce strike incidence.     

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.     

Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea

Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change.     

Species distribution models for predicting the habitat suitability of Chinese fire‐bellied newt Cynops orientalis under climate change

Climate change influences species geographical distribution and diversity pattern. The Chinese fire‐bellied newt (Cynops orientalis) is an endemic species distributed in East‐central China, which has been classified as near‐threatened species recently due to habitat destruction and degradation and illegal trade in the domestic and international pet markets. So far, little is known about the spatial distribution of the species. Based on bioclimatic data of the current and future climate projections, we modeled the change in suitable habitat for C. orientalis by ten algorithms, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. In this study, 46 records of C. orientalis from East China and 8 bioclimatic variables were used. Among the ten modeling algorithms, four (GAM, GBM, Maxent, and RF) were selected according to their predictive abilities. The current habitat suitability showed that C. orientalis had a relatively wide but fragmented distribution, and it encompassed 41,862 km². The models suggested that precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio6) had the highest contribution to the model. This study revealed that C. orientalis is sensitive to climate change, which will lead to a large range shift. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of range shifts for C. orientalis should provide a useful reference for implementing long‐term conservation and management strategies for amphibians in East China.     

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

Background

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species'' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming.

Conclusions/Significance

Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.     

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of three endemic Aloe species critically endangered in East Africa

Climate change has had a significant impact on natural ecosystems and endemic species around the world and substantial impacts are expected in the future. As a result, knowing how climate change affects endemic species can help in putting forward the necessary conservation efforts. The use of niche modeling to predict changes in species distributions under different climate change scenarios is becoming a hot topic in biological conservation. This study aimed to use the global circulation model (CMIP5) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for three critically endangered Aloe species endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in order to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 and 2070. We used two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to project the contraction of suitable habitats for Aloe ballyi Reynolds, A. classenii Reynolds, and A. penduliflora Baker. Precipitation, temperature and environmental variables (Potential evapotranspiration, land cover, soil sedimentary and solar radiation) have had a significant impact on the current distribution of all the three species. Although suitable habitat expansion and contraction are predicted for all the species, loss of original suitable habitat is expected to be extensive. Climate change is expected to devastate >44% and 34% of the original habitats of A. ballyi and A. classenii respectively. Based on our findings, we propose that areas predicted to contract due to climate change should be designated as key protection zones for Aloe species conservation.     

Fly abundance and climate as determinants of sheep blowfly strike incidence in southwest England

The relationships between abundance of the blowfly Lucilia sericata (Meigen) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), climate, animal management procedures and the incidence of cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) in sheep were examined in three sheep pasture systems in southwest England during the summers of 2002 and 2003. In each year, flies were collected using liver-baited sticky targets, daily weather and routine husbandry practices were noted and the age-class of each animal infested and body position of each strike were recorded. On sites where no strike control was used, 5.8-12.1% of ewes and 5.7-15.8% of lambs were struck. Ewe strikes predominated at the beginning of the season. The incidence of ewe strikes was significantly associated with higher mean temperature, rainfall and shearing; shearing was associated with a 95% reduction in the risk of ewe strike. In lambs, the incidence of strike was significantly related to higher fly abundance, ewe shearing, treatment and mean ambient temperature. Lambs were 4.6 times more likely to be struck after the ewes had been shorn than before; however, the strongest relationship was with mean L. sericata abundance. Average minimum threshold temperatures of 9.5 degrees C for lamb strikes and 8.5 degrees C for all strikes were extrapolated, below which oviposition did not occur. Over 80% of ewe strikes occurred in the breech region in 2002, as did 100% in 2003. However, in lambs both body and breech strikes occurred in both years. The distribution of lamb strikes appeared to change over time, with breech strikes predominating in May, June and July and body strikes occurring increasingly later in the season. The incidence of lamb breech strikes was significantly associated with higher L. sericata abundance and ewe shearing but there was no relationship with weather conditions. By contrast, the risk of body strike in lambs was significantly associated with higher blowfly abundance, higher rainfall and higher maximum temperatures. The relationship between strike incidence and L. sericata abundance is important because it enhances our understanding of strike incidence patterns and management of this disease. Clearly, any factors that facilitate larger L. sericata populations, such as inappropriate carcass burial or increased average ambient temperatures, are likely to increase the incidence of strike.     

Rearing bacteria and maggots concurrently: a protocol using Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as a model species

Maggot debridement therapy using live Lucilia sericata (Meigen) larvae is an efficient and cost-effective way to treat chronic wounds. The recent increase in studies to assess the antibacterial properties of L. sericata has created a need for a simple, low-cost, and comprehensible rearing and investigative method for researchers with little or no entomological experience. This paper describes and evaluates a reproducible protocol for sterilising and rearing blowfly larvae utilising two sterile artificial diets (blood–yeast agar and pre-prepared blood agar plates) that is suitable for directly investigating the effect of larvae on microbial growth. Using Lucilia sericata as a model, the results show that larval growth on the pre-prepared blood agar diet is detrimental to larval growth and survival, whereas larval growth and survival on the blood–yeast agar diet are comparable to those of larvae raised on porcine liver. This diet is proposed as a standard for blowfly and bacteria interaction studies investigating clinical microbial strains. Developmental data are provided for L. sericata larvae raised on both sterile and nonsterile diets so that researchers can determine the effect of treatment based on the length of time for larvae to reach the required life stage at 25 ± 2 °C. Information on larval ageing (instars at an average of 1, 2, 3 and 4 days), oviposition times (4–5 days after adult emergence) and adult longevity on the diets (102–116 days) is also given.     

Potential impacts of climate change on geographical distribution of three primary vectors of African Trypanosomiasis in Tanzania’s Maasai Steppe: G. m. morsitans,G. pallidipes and G. swynnertoni

In the Maasai Steppe, public health and economy are threatened by African Trypanosomiasis, a debilitating and fatal disease to livestock (African Animal Trypanosomiasis -AAT) and humans (Human African Trypanosomiasis—HAT), if not treated. The tsetse fly is the primary vector for both HAT and AAT and climate is an important predictor of their occurrence and the parasites they carry. While understanding tsetse fly distribution is essential for informing vector and disease control strategies, existing distribution maps are old and were based on coarse spatial resolution data, consequently, inaccurately representing vector and disease dynamics necessary to design and implement fit-for-purpose mitigation strategies. Also, the assertion that climate change is altering tsetse fly distribution in Tanzania lacks empirical evidence. Despite tsetse flies posing public health risks and economic hardship, no study has modelled their distributions at a scale needed for local planning. This study used MaxEnt species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecological niche modeling tools to predict potential distribution of three tsetse fly species in Tanzania’s Maasai Steppe from current climate information, and project their distributions to midcentury climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenarios. Current climate results predicted that G. m. morsitans, G. pallidipes and G swynnertoni cover 19,225 km², 7,113 km² and 32,335 km² and future prediction indicated that by the year 2050, the habitable area may decrease by up to 23.13%, 12.9% and 22.8% of current habitable area, respectively. This information can serve as a useful predictor of potential HAT and AAT hotspots and inform surveillance strategies. Distribution maps generated by this study can be useful in guiding tsetse fly control managers, and health, livestock and wildlife officers when setting surveys and surveillance programs. The maps can also inform protected area managers of potential encroachment into the protected areas (PAs) due to shrinkage of tsetse fly habitats outside PAs.     

气候变化情景下外来入侵植物刺苍耳在新疆的潜在分布格局模拟

明确区域尺度上外来入侵种的潜在分布格局及其对气候变化的响应对入侵种的预防和控制具有重要意义。以外来入侵植物刺苍耳(Xanthium spinosum L.)为研究对象,以其扩散蔓延的新疆地区为研究区域,结合中国国家气候中心开发的BCC—CSM1—1模式下的将来气候条件,应用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术构建了未来不同气候变化情景(RCP4.5,8.5)下2050s和2070s的刺苍耳适宜生境预测模型,定量的展示了气候变化情景下刺苍耳在新疆的扩散趋势及其适宜生境的面积空间变化和分布区中心移动轨迹。结果表明:年降雨量、下层土壤有机碳含量、上层土壤pH值、年温度变化范围、降雨量的季节性变化和年平均温度是影响刺苍耳地理分布的主导环境因子;博州、塔城、阿勒泰西北部、哈密中部、巴州北部、克州中部、阿克苏北部、奎屯市、克拉玛依市、五家渠市、喀什市等地为高危入侵风险区;两种气候模式下刺苍耳的各级适生区面积和总适生面积均呈持续增加的变化趋势,且在RCP8.5情景(最高温室气体排放情景)下响应更为敏感;总体上看,刺苍耳在新疆的分布未达到饱和,呈现以塔城中部为中心,向天山北麓和塔克拉玛干北缘方向辐射状扩散,且两种气候变化情景下至2070s分布区中心均向伊犁州奎屯方向移动。