Heat requirement for the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in several sites in Andalusia and the effect of the expected future climate change

Olives are one of the largest crops in the Mediterranean region, especially in Andalusia, in southern Spain. A thermal model has been developed for forecasting the start of the olive tree pollen season at five localities in Andalusia: Cordoba, Priego, Jaen, Granada and Malaga using airborne pollen and meteorological data from 1982 to 2001. Threshold temperatures varied between 5°C and 12.5°C depending on bio-geographical characteristics. The external validity of the results was tested using the data for the year 2002 as an independent variable and it confirmed the models accuracy with only a few days difference from predicted values. All the localities had increasingly earlier start dates during the study period. This could confirm that olive flower phenology can be considered as a sensitive indicator of the effects of climate fluctuations in the Mediterranean area. The theoretical impact of the predicted climatic warming on the olives flowering phenology at the end of the century is also proposed by applying Regional Climate Model data. A general advance, from 1 to 3 weeks could be expected, although this advance will be more pronounced in mid-altitude inland areas.     

Olive flowering trends in a large Mediterranean area (Italy and Spain)

The aim of this study was to investigate the main climatic and biological trends related to olive flowering in central-southern Italy compared to those in Andalusia, Spain. Results since 1982 were compared for the two long-series monitoring areas of Cordoba and Perugia, and since 1992–1999 for the short-series areas. The relationship between climatic trends and the biological response of the olive, a widespread culture in the Mediterranean basin, were investigated. An aerobiological method involving capturing pollen released into the atmosphere was utilised as a bioindicator of flowering phenology. The study results confirm the strong relationship between flowering periods and spring temperature trends for the olive. Temperature during March, April and May was the parameter most related to flowering date in the study areas, particularly in Italy. In some cases we found a significant correlation between flowering and past autumn temperatures, probably due to their effect on floral bud dormancy induction, but this phenomenon appeared to be of minor importance in the studied areas. The phenological trend results show the continuous advance of flowering dates to the late 1990s, followed by a relatively stationary time series related to a short-term temperature fluctuation in the Mediterranean area. This latter period probably represents a mesoscale event forced by a macroscale event—the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results reveal that the trend towards increased temperatures, and the consequent flowering advance of some species, indicated some years ago is nowadays not as clear as was expected and should be confirmed over the next few years in the Mediterranean areas under investigation.     

Effects of topography and crown-exposure on olive tree phenology

The importance of the olive tree phenology from agricultural and ecological point of view justifies the need to carry out phenological studies at local and regional scales. Furthermore, flowering phenology in the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is an important indicator of climatic change in the Mediterranean region. In this paper, we study the effects of altitude and the exposure of crown-flowering branches on the flowering phenology of the olive tree. The study was carried out from 2009 to 2012 at eight sites of Cornicabra olive cultivar in central Spain (Toledo province, Castilla-La Mancha region), at altitudes between 440 and 875 m above sea level, since most olive groves in central Spain are to be found in this altitude range. Flowering phenology was also compared in two olive groves located at the same site and elevation; one in a flat area and the other on a north-facing hillside. Results revealed a significant correlation between altitude and flowering start-date: for each 100 m increase in altitude, flowering started 2.5 days later. Analysis of individual flowering branches of the same tree showed that preflowering and flowering started several days later on north-facing compared to south-facing branches. Olive trees growing on a north-facing hillside started the preflowering stage with some delay with respect to those growing in flat areas. Finally, taking onset of flowering as the variable, a hierarchical cluster analysis enabled olive-groves to be classified by flowering sequence across an altitudinal gradient.     

Comparison of Classical Models for Evaluating the Heat Requirements of Olive （Olea europeae L.） in Portugal

The aim of the present study was to compare the accuracy and reproducibility of six statistical models for the calculation of olive （Olea europeae L.） heat requirements to trigger the onset of flowering in three Portuguese regions： Reguengos de Monsaraz, Valenga do Douro, and Braga. Other alms were to ascertain the date on which the heat-accumulation period started and the threshold temperatures above which the development of reproductive structures starts in olives. The starting and peak dates for the regional O. europeae flowering season were estimated by monitoring airborne pollen from 1998 to 2004 using ＂Cour＂- type samplers. The threshold temperature values calculated for the three regions were very similar （9.0 ℃ for Valenca do Douro, 9.2 ℃ for Reguengos de Monsaraz, and 9.7 ℃ for Braga）. The accumulated daily mean temperature model had less interannual and inter-regional variation, showing best predictive results for 2004, with absolute differences between the observed and predicted dates of 4 d in Reguengos de Monsaraz and 2 d In Valenca do Douro and Braga for the onset of flowering date and of 2 d In Reguengos de Monsaraz, 7 d in Valenca do Douro, and 4 d in Braga for peak flowering dates. This model was the most accurate, reproducible, and operational to calculate heat requirements for olives to flower, with an average mean temperature accumulation of 1 446 ℃ In Reguengos, 1 642 ℃ in Valenga do Douro, and 1 703℃ In Braga to reach the onset of flowering. The best initial date for this accumulation was 1 January.     

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long‐term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21‐year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05–0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species – especially for early‐flowering species – while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later‐flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species’ phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.     

Study of the floral phenology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Olea europaea</Emphasis> L. in Jaén province (SE Spain) and its relation with pollen emission

Phenological and aerobiological studies provide important information regarding the reproductive biology of cultivated species such as the olive. This article presents the results of an exploratory study of the floral phenology of Olea europaea L. at different altitudes in Jaén province (SE Spain) and an analysis of the main meteorological factors affecting flowering. As well, this study aimed to detect the relationship between phenology and olive pollen emission as a means of interpreting Olea pollen curves in the city of Jaén. Phenological observations were performed on olive trees at six sites, each at different altitudes and distributed over the whole area of olive cultivation in the province. Pollen data were obtained using a Hirst-type volumetric spore trap located within the city of Jaén. Phenological and aerobiological data were recorded in 2006 and 2007. This study shows that the chronology of the start of the flowering period depends on altitude. Statistical analyses indicate that the temperature, humidity, cumulative rainfall and cumulative solar radiation are the meteorological parameters that most affect olive floral phenology. The pollen season in Jaén generally lasts from May to June, with an annual total emission of over 40,000 pollen grains, the highest annual level of olive pollen emission in the world. The airborne pollen concentrations recorded in the city of Jaén are above all influenced by the olive groves located in the Guadalquivir valley.     

Year clustering analysis for modelling olive flowering phenology

It is now widely accepted that weather conditions occurring several months prior to the onset of flowering have a major influence on various aspects of olive reproductive phenology, including flowering intensity. Given the variable characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, we analyse its influence on the registered variations in olive flowering intensity in southern Spain, and relate them to previous climatic parameters using a year-clustering approach, as a first step towards an olive flowering phenology model adapted to different year categories. Phenological data from Cordoba province (Southern Spain) for a 30-year period (1982–2011) were analysed. Meteorological and phenological data were first subjected to both hierarchical and “K-means” clustering analysis, which yielded four year-categories. For this classification purpose, three different models were tested: (1) discriminant analysis; (2) decision-tree analysis; and (3) neural network analysis. Comparison of the results showed that the neural-networks model was the most effective, classifying four different year categories with clearly distinct weather features. Flowering-intensity models were constructed for each year category using the partial least squares regression method. These category-specific models proved to be more effective than general models. They are better suited to the variability of the Mediterranean climate, due to the different response of plants to the same environmental stimuli depending on the previous weather conditions in any given year. The present detailed analysis of the influence of weather patterns of different years on olive phenology will help us to understand the short-term effects of climate change on olive crop in the Mediterranean area that is highly affected by it.     

Halo-nitrophilous scrub species and their relationship to the atmospheric concentration of allergenic pollen: case study of the Mediterranean saltbush (Atriplex halimus L., Amaranthaceae)

Halo-nitrophilous scrubs are characterised by their floristic richness in species of the family Amaranthaceae (include Chenopodiaceae) and the Mediterranean saltbush (Atriplex halimus L.) is one of the most characteristic species in the Mediterranean region. Pollen from Amaranthaceae is the main cause of pollinosis at the end of summer and autumn. In this study, the floral phenology of the species Atriplex halimus L., was studied relating it to the atmospheric concentration of Amaranthaceae pollen with the aim to know if it can serve as an indicator of the maximum pollen concentrations. Observations of the male floral phenology of Atriplex halimus were performed over the course of three years in the central Iberian Peninsula (Spain) and the aerobiological pollen data of Amaranthaceae were obtained using a Hirst-type volumetric trap. The results demonstrated that the flowering period of Atriplex halimus closely coincided with the peak pollen levels. Besides, the prevailing movements of air masses in relation to the distribution and abundance of the halo-nitrophilous scrub during the flowering period of Atriplex halimus were studied using a back-trajectory analysis. The results showed that distinct predominant wind patterns led to differences in the quantity of pollen recorded during the pollen season and in the behaviour of the evolution of airborne pollen concentrations.     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

Climate warming effects on the Olea europaea–Bactrocera oleae system in Mediterranean islands: Sardinia as an example

Global warming will affect all species but in largely unknown ways, with certain regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and its major islands including Sardinia being particularly vulnerable to desertification. Olive ( Olea europaea ) is of eco-social importance in the Mediterranean where it was domesticated. This drought-resistant crop and its major pest, the olive fly ( Bactrocera oleae ), have tight biological links that make them a suitable model system for climate change studies in the Mediterranean. Here a physiologically based weather-driven demographic model of olive and olive fly is used to analyze in detail this plant–pest system in Sardinia under observed weather (10 years of daily data from 48 locations), three climate warming scenarios (increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C in average daily temperature), and a 105-year climate model scenario for the Alghero location (e.g. 1951–2055). grass gis is used to map model predictions of olive bloom dates and yield, total season-long olive fly pupae, and percent fruit attacked by the fly. Island wide simulation data are summarized using multivariate regression. Model calibration with field bloom date data were performed to increase simulation accuracy of olive flowering predictions under climate change. As climate warms, the range of olive is predicted to expand to higher altitudes and consolidate elsewhere, especially in coastal areas. The range of olive fly will extend into previously unfavorable cold areas, but will contract in warm inland lowlands where temperatures approach its upper thermal limits. Consequently, many areas of current high risk are predicted to have decreased risk of fly damage with climate warming. Simulation using a 105-year climate model scenario for Alghero, Sardinia predicts changes in the olive–olive fly system expected to occur if climate continued to warm at the low rate observed during in the past half century.     

Quantitative forecasting of olive yield in Northern Portugal using a bioclimatic model

In this work the objective was to develop a bioclimatic model to forecast olive yield based on airborne pollen, soil water content, and favourable conditions for phytopathological attacks. Olive airborne pollen was sampled from 1998 to 2006 using Cour traps installed in the Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro region, in the provinces of Valença do Douro and Vila Nova de Foz-Côa. Meteorological data from a meteorological station located in Pinhão, near the pollen samplers, was used to calculate other independent variables. According to the bioclimatic model, at the flowering stage 63% of regional olive production can be predicted from the regional pollen index, with an average deviation between observed and predicted production of 10%. The variable soil water content enabled an increase in forecasting accuracy of about 30%, and a reduction in the average deviation between observed and predicted production of 6%. The final regression with all three variables tested showed that the bioclimatic model was able to predict the annual variability of regional olive fruit production with an accuracy of 97%, the average deviation between observed and predicted production being 3% for internal validation and 6% for external validation.     

Instrumental test to estimate a model of forecast yield: a non-parametric application to the pollen index in South Italy

A statistical test is described to verify the characteristics of the biological information contained in the dynamics of the flowering process. The test focuses on interactions between the pollen index and climatic variables to investigate if the biological indicator can synthesise the information of the pre-flowering phases. The multiple-regression model is built upon two pre-flowering climate macro-indicators extracted by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the optimised pollen index is obtained by non-parametric estimation. The empirical analysis is applied to 15 stations located in southern Italy in regions that have a longstanding tradition of olive production. Using the variance explained, we find that an optimised pollen index is fairly well predicted by the pre-flowering climatic data. We conclude that the optimised pollen index makes more parsimonious the modelling for predicting olive production.     

Evidences of olive pollination date variations in relation to spring temperature trends

Airborne pollen concentration patterns reflect flowering phenology of a given species, and it may be a sensitive regional indicator in climate change studies. This paper presents the relationship between a strategic biological event, such as olive flowering, and the air temperature trend, registered over a large scale (1982–2007) in the Umbria region. The aim of the study was to determine relationships between phenological behaviour (flowering) of olive trees and the air temperature trend (1982–2007) in the Umbria region. The phenological data on flowering phase were registered indirectly through an aerobiological monitoring technique. The obtained results showed a strong relationship between phenology and thermal trend. This characteristic was confirmed from results of correlations between temperature (mean temperature from 1st March) and flowering dates, especially that of full flowering (r = −0.9297). Moreover, the results showed an advance trend of 6, 8 and 10 days, respectively of start, full and end of flowering dates. The advance of the recorded flowering time in this period is to ascribe mainly to the increase of mean temperature and above all to that registered in months of May and June.     

Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra

The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long‐term time series of spring leaf‐out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology.     

The role of temperature in the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in southwestern Spain

Temperature is one of the main factors affecting the flowering of Mediterranean trees. In the case of Olea europaea L., a low-temperature period prior to bud development is essential to interrupt dormancy. After that, and once a base temperature is reached, the plant accumulates heat until flowering starts. Different methods of obtaining the best-forecast model for the onset date of the O. europaea pollen season, using temperature as the predictive parameter, are proposed in this paper. An 18-year pollen and climatic data series (1982–1999) from Cordoba (Spain) was used to perform the study. First a multiple-regression analysis using 15-day average temperatures from the period prior to flowering time was tested. Second, three heat-summation methods were used, determining the the quantities heat units (HU): accumulated daily mean temperature after deducting a threshold, growing degree-days (GDD): proposed by Snyder [J Agric Meteorol 35:353–358 (1985)] as a measure of physiological time, and accumulated maximum temperature. In the first two, the optimum base temperature selected for heat accumulation was 12.5°C. The multiple-regression equation for 1999 gives a 7-day delay from the observed date. The most accurate results were obtained with the GDD method, with a difference of only 4.7 days between predicted and observed dates. The average heat accumulation expressed as GDD was 209.9°C days. The HU method also gives good results, with no significant statistical differences between predictions and observations. Received: 18 April 2000 / Revised: 14 September 2000 / Accepted: 19 September 2000     

Forecasting olive (Olea europaea) crop production by monitoring airborne pollen

Forecasting harvests of olives destined for the production of olive oil can be based on counts of airborne olive pollen, and meteorological and agronomic observations. This study was carried out during six consecutive years (1990–1995) in the Campiña Alta (an olive-producing region in the province of Córdoba, south-west Spain). Olive pollen totals are the annual sum of the concentrations recorded for the periods that the filters of a Cour trap were exposed. The meteorological data are the values of accumulated rainfall between 1 September and the following 15 April (a date prior to the beginning of olive flowering). The agronomic data are the forecast and actual productions for the province of Córdoba, supplied by the Board of Agriculture of the Andalusian government, and the actual production of the Campiña Alta, supplied at the end of harvest by private olive-growing co-operatives. The data were combined, and four mathematical equations were obtained to forecast the crop 6 months in advance, with varying degrees of reliability. The reliability was very high for an appropriate agricultural area. The most accurate equation isY=?1.90×10⁴+2.35X+53.94 (which forecasts the production of the Campiña Alta), whereY is the olive production (MT),X the olive pollen count,Z the rainfall prior to flowering, anda, b andc are constants. The least accurate equation is that relating olive pollen concentrations with olive production in the province of Córdoba.     

Analysis of atmospheric dispersion of olive pollen in southern Spain using SILAM and HYSPLIT models

SILAM atmospheric dispersion model and the HYSPLIT trajectory model were used to detect the source areas and calculate transport dynamics for airborne olive pollen observed in the city of Córdoba, southwest of Iberian Peninsula. The ECMWF weather data with 3-h time interval and spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km² and 75 hybrid vertical levels were used as meteorological inputs in both models to produce a coherent set of results in order to compare these two different approaches. Seven episodes recorded before and after the local flowering season in 2006 were analyzed using both models. The results provided an indication of the origins of olive pollen recorded in the city of Córdoba, revealing the influence of three main source areas at specific periods. One area was located nearby, to the southwest of the city (early May), another in the south of the province (mid-May) and the third to the east (late May/early June). The SILAM model yielded more detailed and quantitative results when identifying olive pollen sources and charting transport dynamics. The results from the HYSPLIT trajectory approach and SILAM footprints were qualitatively similar. However, a weak point of back trajectories was their lower sensitivity to details of the transport, as well as the necessity of subjective analysis of the trajectory plots, which were subject for possible misinterpretations. Information on both pollen source locations and local tree flowering phenology was required in order to ensure consistent analysis of the influence of olive sources for both models. Further than this, due to the fact that both models are widely used in other research areas, the results of this work could have a widespread range of application, such as to simulate the transport of radionuclides, e.g., in emergency preparedness exercises.     

Prairie plant phenology driven more by temperature than moisture in climate manipulations across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest,USA

Plant phenology will likely shift with climate change, but how temperature and/or moisture regimes will control phenological responses is not well understood. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climate ecosystems where the warmest temperatures and greatest moisture availability are seasonally asynchronous. We examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels to four climate treatments (control, warming, drought, and warming plus additional precipitation) embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient within the Pacific Northwest, USA. At the population level, we monitored flowering and abundances in spring 2017 of eight range‐restricted focal species planted both within and north of their current ranges. At the community level, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured from fall 2016 to summer 2018 to estimate peak live biomass, senescence, seasonal patterns, and growing season length. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than our moisture manipulations on phenology at both the population and community levels. Warming advanced flowering regardless of whether a species was within or beyond its current range. Importantly, many of our focal species had low abundances, particularly in the south, suggesting that establishment, in addition to phenological shifts, may be a strong constraint on their future viability. At the community level, warming advanced the date of peak biomass regardless of site or year. The date of senescence advanced regardless of year for the southern and central sites but only in 2018 for the northern site. Growing season length contracted due to warming at the southern and central sites (~3 weeks) but was unaffected at the northern site. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may exert strong influence on the timing of a variety of plant phenological events, especially those events that occur when temperature is most limiting, even in seasonally water‐limited Mediterranean ecosystems.     

Temperature alone does not explain phenological variation of diverse temperate plants under experimental warming

Anthropogenic climate change has altered temperate forest phenology, but how these trends will play out in the future is controversial. We measured the effect of experimental warming of 0.6–5.0 °C on the phenology of a diverse suite of 11 plant species in the deciduous forest understory (Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA) in a relatively warm year (2011) and a colder year (2013). Our primary goal was to dissect how temperature affects timing of spring budburst, flowering, and autumn leaf coloring for functional groups with different growth habits, phenological niches, and xylem anatomy. Warming advanced budburst of six deciduous woody species by 5–15 days and delayed leaf coloring by 18–21 days, resulting in an extension of the growing season by as much as 20–29 days. Spring temperature accumulation was strongly correlated with budburst date, but temperature alone cannot explain the diverse budburst responses observed among plant functional types. Ring‐porous trees showed a consistent temperature response pattern across years, suggesting these species are sensitive to photoperiod. Conversely, diffuse‐porous species responded differently between years, suggesting winter chilling may be more important in regulating budburst. Budburst of the ring‐porous Quercus alba responded nonlinearly to warming, suggesting evolutionary constraints may limit changes in phenology, and therefore productivity, in the future. Warming caused a divergence in flowering times among species in the forest community, resulting in a longer flowering season by 10‐16 days. Temperature was a good predictor of flowering for only four of the seven species studied here. Observations of interannual temperature variability overpredicted flowering responses in spring‐blooming species, relative to our warming experiment, and did not consistently predict even the direction of flowering shifts. Experiments that push temperatures beyond historic variation are indispensable for improving predictions of future changes in phenology.     

Environmental analysis of airborne pollen occurrence,pollen source distribution and phenology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Fraxinus angustifolia</Emphasis>

Narrow-leafed ash (Fraxinus angustifolia) is a common polygamous tree growing on the banks of rivers in the western Mediterranean region. Pollination occurs during winter, and the tree’s pollen is among the most abundant during that season. This work aims to relate the phenology of pollen shedding, source tree distribution, meteorology and airborne pollen occurrence for the species. Aerobiological sampling was conducted in Badajoz (south-western Spain) using a Hirst volumetric sampler over 24 years (1993–2016). Trees were geo-localized in a circle 500 m in diameter surrounding the pollen sampler. During the last two periods, pollination phenology was studied in 10 specimens, five in the surroundings of the pollen station and five 3 km apart, at a frequency of 3–4 days on average. Moreover, a detailed analysis of pollen occurrence was conducted for these two periods. Daily data for the whole period and hourly data over the last 2 years were used, including pollen monitoring and meteorology. A comparison was made between pollen occurrence and source distribution. The main pollen season lasted on average 53 (28–75) days. Average values were less than 10 grains m^?3, except for two periods of 23–24 grains m^?3. Daily data and hourly data correlation with meteorology showed different signs in correlation analysis. Hourly analysis showed that the maximum concentration occurred just after noon. Most pollen was recorded at an average temperature of 9 °C. Analysis of pollen sources and pollen occurrence showed a close relationship between predominant wind directions and tree distribution. Peaks of phenology were not coincident with pollen peaks. No trends in pollination were found. Non-homogeneous distribution of pollen sources for Fraxinus angustifolia provided a suitable tool to demonstrate that wind direction plays a relevant role when aerobiological data are interpreted according to source distribution. A limitation in phenology analysis and aerobiological data was noted in the narrow-leafed ash species.