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1.
Pioneering efforts to predict shifts in species distribution under climate change used simple models based on the correlation between contemporary environmental factors and distributions. These models make predictions at coarse spatial scales and assume the constancy of present correlations between environment and distribution. Adaptive management of climate change impacts requires models that can make more robust predictions at finer spatio-temporal scales by accounting for processes that actually affect species distribution on heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models of the distribution of both species and vegetation types have begun to emerge to meet these needs. We review these developments and highlight how recent advances in our understanding of relationships among the niche concept, species diversity and community assembly point the way towards more effective models for the impacts of global change on species distribution and community diversity. 相似文献
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Nele Ingerpuu Kai Vellak Toomas Kukk Meelis Pärtel 《Biodiversity and Conservation》2001,10(12):2153-2166
We compare species richness of bryophytes and vascular plants in Estonian moist forests and mires. The material was collected from two wetland nature reserves. Bryophyte and vascular plant species were recorded in 338 homogeneous stands of approximately 1 ha in nine forest and two mire types. Regional species pools for bryophytes and vascular plants were significantly correlated. The correlations between the species richnesses of bryophytes and vascular plants per stand were positive in all community types. The relative richnesses (local richness divided by the regional species pool size) were similar for bryophyte species and for vascular plant species. This shows that on larger scales, conservation of the communities rich in species of one taxonomic plant group, maintains also the species richness of the other. The minimum number of stands needed for the maintenance of the regional species pool of typical species for the every community type was calculated using the species richness accumulation curves. Less stands are needed to maintain the bryophyte species pools (300–5300 for bryophytes and 400–35 000 for vascular plants). 相似文献
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Iwona Dullinger Andreas Gattringer Johannes Wessely Dietmar Moser Christoph Plutzar Wolfgang Willner Claudine Egger Veronika Gaube Helmut Haberl Andreas Mayer Andreas Bohner Christian Gilli Kathrin Pascher Franz Essl Stefan Dullinger 《Global Change Biology》2020,26(4):2336-2352
Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts. 相似文献
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In this study, we present an approach for the identification of indicators for biodiversity within forest ecosystems. We analyze the data of stands of pure Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), as well as mixed P. abies–F. sylvatica forests in the Solling mountains (NW Germany). The analysis is based on 683 vegetation samples in total. For different plant groups, that is, vascular plants, bryophytes, Red List species, we investigate species numbers as a parameter of biodiversity. Species numbers are differentiated into three classes to describe low to high diversity. Plots are separately examined for the three different forest types. In order to take the species–area relationship into account, we only use relevés with a plot size of 100 m2. Our approach focuses on the probability to be in a defined range of species numbers, that is, class, if a certain species occurs. For the purpose of facilitating the differentiation of the classes, we use the presence values of species in the classes for further characterization of indicators. Few indicators were found for the low ranges of species numbers. In addition, there were only a small number of species groups and stand types having indicators for all three classes. Various species have multiple indicator functions, e.g., with regard to the investigated species groups. The focus on a few of these multi‐indicators allows a rapid assessment of forest biodiversity. The catalog of indicators resulting from the investigation helps to facilitate and accelerate biodiversity evaluations of forest stands, in particular with regard to nature conservation and the restoration of natural forests. 相似文献
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AimsClimate change in the near future may become a major threat to high-altitude endemics by greatly altering their distribution. Our aims are to (i) assess the potential impacts of future climate change on the diversity and distribution of seed plants endemic to the Tibetan Plateau and (ii) evaluate the conservation effectiveness of the current National Nature Reserves (NNRs) in protecting the endemic plants in the face of climate change. 相似文献
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ROBIN ENGLER CHRISTOPHE F. RANDIN WILFRIED THUILLER STEFAN DULLINGER NIKLAUS E. ZIMMERMANN MIGUEL B. ARAÚJO PETER B. PEARMAN GWENAËLLE LE LAY CHRISTIAN PIEDALLU CÉCILE H. ALBERT PHILIPPE CHOLER GHEORGHE COLDEA XAVIER
De LAMO THOMAS DIRNBÖCK JEAN‐CLAUDE GÉGOUT DANIEL GÓMEZ‐GARCÍA JOHN‐ARVID GRYTNES EINAR HEEGAARD FRIDE HØISTAD DAVID NOGUÉS‐BRAVO SIGNE NORMAND MIHAI PUŞCAŞ MARIA‐TERESA SEBASTIÀ ANGELA STANISCI JEAN‐PAUL THEURILLAT MANDAR R. TRIVEDI PASCAL VITTOZ ANTOINE GUISAN 《Global Change Biology》2011,17(7):2330-2341
Continental‐scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill‐suited for assessment of species‐specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high‐resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high‐resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold‐adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation. 相似文献
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Brooke L. Bateman Chad Wilsey Lotem Taylor Joanna Wu Geoffrey S. LeBaron Gary Langham 《Conservation Science and Practice》2020,2(8):e242
In an emerging climate crisis, effective conservation requires both adaptation and mitigation to improve the resilience of species. The currently pledged emissions reductions outlined in the Paris Agreement framework would still lead to a +3.2°C increase in global mean temperature by the end of this century. In this context, we assess the vulnerability of 604 North American bird species and identify the species and locations most at risk under climate change. We do this based on species distribution models for both the breeding and nonbreeding seasons, projected under two global warming scenarios (an optimistic mitigation scenario 1.5°C and an unmitigated 3.0°C scenario). We evaluate vulnerability under each season and scenario by assessing sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on modeled range loss and range gain, respectively, and based on species specific dispersal abilities. Our study, the first of its magnitude, finds that over two-thirds of North American birds are moderately or highly vulnerable to climate change under a 3.0°C scenario. Of these climate-vulnerable species, 76% would have reduced vulnerability and 38% of those would be considered nonvulnerable if warming were stabilized at 1.5°C. Thus, the current pledge in greenhouse gas reductions set by the Paris Agreement is inadequate to reduce vulnerability to North American birds. Additionally, if climate change proceeds on its current trajectory, arctic birds, waterbirds, and boreal and western forest birds will be highly vulnerable to climate change, groups that are currently not considered of high conservation concern. There is an urgent need for both (a) policies to mitigate emissions and (b) prioritization to identify where to focus adaptation actions to protect birds in a changing climate. 相似文献
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Anne Lewerentz;Markus Hoffmann;Thomas Hovestadt;Uta Raeder;Juliano Sarmento Cabral; 《Oikos》2023,2023(10):e09803
Submerged freshwater macrophytes are crucial for the functioning of lakes. Their growth and survival follow environmental conditions like light, temperature, and nutrient availability. Hence, the impending increase in water temperature as well as changes of nutrients and turbidity will lead to changes in macrophyte geographic and depth distribution: Herein, we assess these potential changes. We apply an eco-physiological macrophyte growth model to simulate biomass growth and survival of virtual species defined by random trait combinations within expert-derived trait ranges for oligotraphentic, mesotraphentic, and eutraphentic species groups in deep lakes in Bavaria, Germany, which cover clear, moderate, and turbid lake conditions. The emergent potential species richness is compared with empirically observed species richness to evaluate general predictions for current conditions. Thereafter, we apply the model to scenarios of temperature increase and of turbidity and nutrient change to assess potential changes in species richness and the influence of species' traits on being an environmental change ‘winner' or ‘loser'. We find a cross-lake, hump-shaped pattern of potential species richness along depth. This largely reflects observed patterns, although mismatches were also detected and might be explained by missing processes and environmental heterogeneity within the lake. Rising temperature leads to increased richness of potential species in all lake types, species groups, and depths. Turbidity and nutrient change effects depend on depth and lake type. ‘Loser species' under increased turbidity and nutrient level are light consumptive and sensible to disturbances, while ‘winner species' have a high biomass production. These findings show that the hump-shaped depth distributions of submerged macrophyte diversity can emerge solely considering eco-physiology. The differential responses to environmental changes imply that management measures must account for lake type because those responses can have opposite trends depending on lake depth and type. 相似文献
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Darkness visible: reflections on underground ecology 总被引:13,自引:4,他引:13
A. H. FITTER 《Journal of Ecology》2005,93(2):231-243
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生物多样性研究是综合性和高度交叉性的跨学科研究领域,是1997年底Science周刊上预测的1998年及近期的6个重大科学热点之一。检索1986—2008年间SCIE文献数据库中关于生物多样性的研究论文(article,proceedings paper和review),利用Thomson Data Analyzer(TDA)分析工具和Aureka分析平台进行数据挖掘。分析表明,该研究涉及多个学科领域,近年来在生态学领域的论文数量增加最多,而生物多样性保护、进化生物学、生物化学与分子生物学方面的论文增长速度较快。生物多样性研究越来越重视全球变化和人类社会对生物多样性的影响,DNA技术和基因工程等先进技术在生物多样性研究和保护中的作用也更加突出。 相似文献
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全球气候变化以及生物对其响应已引起人们的广泛关注。在众多生物中,蝴蝶被公认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的指示物种之一。已有大量的研究结果表明,蝴蝶类群已经在地理分布范围、生活史特性以及生物多样性变化等方面对全球气候变化作出了响应。根据全球范围内蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应的研究资料,尤其是欧美一些长期监测的研究成果,综述了蝴蝶类群在物种分布格局、物候、繁殖、形态特征变化、种群动态以及物种多样性变化等方面对气候变化的响应特征,认为温度升高和极端天气是导致蝴蝶物种分布格局和种群动态变化的主要因素。在此基础上,展望了我国开展蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应方面研究的未来发展趋势。 相似文献
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In Dutch forests the species density of vascular plants ranges from 1 to 61 species per 300 m2. The vascular plant species density is high in the coastal dunes, southern Limburg, river valleys, and fen areas. With the exception of southern Limburg, these areas constitute the Holocene part of the Netherlands. Low species densities occur in the sandy centre of the country. To a large extent, the areas of high species density of vascular plants follow the main river valleys. The bryophyte species densities range from 0 to 21 species per 300 m2. High bryophyte species densities occur mainly in the sandy centre and in the north-eastern part of the Netherlands. The highest species densities occur in fen woodlands and derelict coppices. Bryophyte species density is low in the coastal dunes and the very young woodlands in the recently reclaimed areas (polders). The species density contour maps of vascular plants and bryophytes in the Netherlands have little in common. 相似文献
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Igor Soares de Oliveira Dennis Rödder César Capinha Faraham Ahmadzadeh Adriele Karlokoski Cunha de Oliveira Luís Felipe Toledo 《Studies on Neotropical Fauna and Environment》2016,51(1):45-55
Global warming is expected to cause several modifications to physical environments, and sea level rise is a certain outcome. However, assessment of the potential impacts caused by sea level rise on biodiversity is still emerging. Therefore, we assessed the combined impact of global warming and sea level rise on the potential distribution of 19 coastal lowland anurans in the biodiversity hotspot Atlantic Forest. We applied a correlative species distribution model (SDM) (BIOCLIM) and GIS-based spatial analyses. We evaluated the extent of changes of potential distributions under extreme and moderate global warming scenarios as well as two extreme sea level rise scenarios. Our results suggest wide areas of suitable habitat for most species in the future. However, for 15% of these species the SDMs predict massive losses of range extent as a result of a combination of global warming and sea level rise. Such observations highlight an immediate need to consider the potential effects of sea level rise in conservation action plans. Since the current potential distribution of these anuran species is likely underestimated, we also analyzed their environmental niche under current conditions in order to provide a baseline for further field surveys. Considering this current state of knowledge for such species, species distribution modeling to help gather further information on unknown species is desirable. 相似文献
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广西位于中国南部,地质复杂地形多样,生物多样性丰富,是我国南方重要生态屏障。广西植物研究所自1935年建所以来一直致力于摸清广西植物资源家底,在全区开展了广泛的野外调查,累计采集植物标本约60万份,建立了全区馆藏量最大的广西植物标本馆(IBK),联合区内外28家单位完成《广西植物志》全部六卷的编研出版工作。该套志书共收录广西维管植物307科、2 073属、9 051种(含种下等级),是首次全面而系统描述广西植物资源的大型志书。该文介绍了《广西植物志》的基本情况和编著特色,系统回顾了该志书编研的曲折历程,并将编研历程分为三个阶段进行描述,最后简要介绍了《广西植物志》在业界同行获得的评价和各类荣誉。回顾历史展望未来,结合当前植物学科的发展趋势,笔者浅谈了广西的植物分类学及相关学科发展愿景,为今后广西植物资源的研究、保护和可持续利用提供借鉴。 相似文献
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苔藓是具有较多种类的一类绿色植物群,是生物多样性的重要组成成分。缘于苔藓的可变水性、体表直接吸收水分和营养以及独特的繁殖与传播方式,苔藓几乎存在于所有的生态系统之中。除极地冻原、温带苔藓沼泽等以苔藓为优势的植被类型外,苔藓还通常在维管束植物群落中形成自己的群落。苔藓是重要的初级生产者之一,在物质循环中起着重要的作用,影响森林植被的水分平衡,也是某些演替过程中的重要先锋植物。苔藓与其它生物类群的生活和生存有密切联系,尤其是苔藓群落所营造的生境,促进和保护了生物多样性。苔藓与人类生活的关系日益密切。由于苔藓与生境的强烈相关性,其多样性所受到的威胁主要源于生境的破坏,加之人们对苔藓的了解远远少于其它高等植物,这种威胁更应引起关注。 相似文献
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Weiwei Ran;Jiajia Chen;Yuanqi Zhao;Ni Zhang;Guimei Luo;Zhibing Zhao;Yuehua Song; 《Ecology and evolution》2024,14(7):e70003
Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions. 相似文献
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Chad Wilsey Lotem Taylor Brooke Bateman Caitlin Jensen Nicole Michel Arvind Panjabi Gary Langham 《Conservation Science and Practice》2019,1(4):e21
Grassland birds have suffered dramatic population declines and are under threat of further grassland conversion. Simultaneously, grassland regions are projected to have high rates of future climate change. We assessed the vulnerability of grassland birds in North America under scenarios of global climate change reflecting the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The assessment incorporated model-based projections of range losses and gains as well as trait-based information on adaptive capacity. Nearly half (42%) of grassland birds were highly vulnerable during the breeding season under a 3.0°C increase in global mean temperature scenario representing current commitments under the Paris Accord. This proportion declined to 13% with a 2.0°C increase and to 8% with a 1.5°C increase over preindustrial global mean temperature. Regardless of scenario, more than 70% of grassland birds had some vulnerability to climate change. Policy actions beyond the present-day national commitments under the Paris Accord are needed to reduce vulnerability of grassland birds in a changing climate. 相似文献