Vegetation phenology and nest survival: Diagnosing heterogeneous effects through time

Birds should select nest sites that minimize predation risk, but understanding the influence of vegetation on nest survival has proven problematic. Specifically, the common practice of measuring vegetation on nest fate date can overestimate its effect on nest survival, simply because vegetation at hatched nests grows for a longer period of time than vegetation at nests that were depredated. Here, we sampled the literature to determine the prevalence of this bias in studies of duck breeding ecology. We then used survival data collected from ~2,800 duck nests to empirically evaluate evidence of bias in four different vegetation metrics: vegetation density measured when the nest was found, density when the nest was fated, and date‐corrected regression residuals of these two. We also diagnosed the magnitude of vegetation effects on nest survival by restricting our analysis to only nests which were fated contemporaneously (thereby removing potential bias in the timing of measurement). Finally, we examined whether systematic phenological differences exist between vegetation at hatched and depredated nests that have the potential to further obfuscate the relationship between vegetation and nest survival. We found evidence for a true‐positive effect of vegetation density on nest survival that appeared to be inflated when using raw vegetation measurements collected at fate date. However, taken in combination with the literature review, our results suggest that the majority of duck nesting studies have evaluated the role of vegetation on nest survival using a relatively less biased metric—vegetation density when the nest was found. Finally, we found that over the course of a nesting attempt, vegetation increased in density at successful nests, but decreased in density at depredated nests. As a consequence, duck researchers using vegetation data collected when the nest was found may actually be underestimating the magnitude of the effect. This seasonal change potentially points to an important new metric for understanding predation risk, but further experimental research is required to fully eliminate potential biases in the timing of vegetation measurements.     

Timing of nest vegetation measurement may obscure adaptive significance of nest‐site characteristics: A simulation study

Advances in understanding avian nesting ecology are hindered by a prevalent lack of agreement between nest‐site characteristics and fitness metrics such as nest success. We posit this is a result of inconsistent and improper timing of nest‐site vegetation measurements. Therefore, we evaluated how the timing of nest vegetation measurement influences the estimated effects of vegetation structure on nest survival. We simulated phenological changes in nest‐site vegetation growth over a typical nesting season and modeled how the timing of measuring that vegetation, relative to nest fate, creates bias in conclusions regarding its influence on nest survival. We modeled the bias associated with four methods of measuring nest‐site vegetation: Method 1—measuring at nest initiation, Method 2—measuring at nest termination regardless of fate, Method 3—measuring at nest termination for successful nests and at estimated completion for unsuccessful nests, and Method 4—measuring at nest termination regardless of fate while also accounting for initiation date. We quantified and compared bias for each method for varying simulated effects, ranked models for each method using AIC, and calculated the proportion of simulations in which each model (measurement method) was selected as the best model. Our results indicate that the risk of drawing an erroneous or spurious conclusion was present in all methods but greater with Method 2 which is the most common method reported in the literature. Methods 1 and 3 were similarly less biased. Method 4 provided no additional value as bias was similar to Method 2 for all scenarios. While Method 1 is seldom practical to collect in the field, Method 3 is logistically practical and minimizes inherent bias. Implementation of Method 3 will facilitate estimating the effect of nest‐site vegetation on survival, in the least biased way, and allow reliable conclusions to be drawn.     

The influence of nest-site characteristics on the nesting success of the Karoo Prinia (Prinia maculosa)

Choice of nest site has important consequences for nest survival. We examined nest-site characteristics relative to nest success in Karoo Prinias breeding in coastal dwarf shrubland, where high nest predation is the main cause of nest failure. Initially, we compared nests that failed during the building, laying, incubation and nestling stages and those from which young were successfully raised, to test whether nests that survived to progressive stages in the nesting cycle differed in their nest-site characteristics. Subsequently, we compared the characteristics of successful nests with those of unsuccessful nests. The nest-site characteristics considered included nest height, nest-plant height, nest-plant species, distance from lateral foliage edge, nest concealment, nest-patch heterogeneity and vegetation cover at four different heights. We were unable to distinguish between the nest-site characteristics of nests that failed during the various stages of the nesting cycle. Concealment was the main nest-site characteristic that differentiated successful nests from unsuccessful nests, with successful nests being located in more concealed sites. The other variables that contributed to the discrimination between successful and unsuccessful nests by discriminant function analysis included nest-plant type and distance from edge, which are also directly related to concealment. This suggests that nest concealment is the most important variable influencing nesting success at this site, which has a preponderance of visually-oriented predators.     

Merriam's Turkey Nest Survival and Factors Affecting Nest Predation by Mammals

Abstract: Nest success is an important parameter affecting population fluctuations of wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). Factors influencing mammalian predation on turkey nests are complicated and not well understood. Therefore, we assessed nest hazard risk by testing competing hypotheses of Merriam's turkey (M. g. merriami) nest survival in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) ecosystem during 2001–2003. We collected nesting information on 83 female Merriam's turkeys; annual nest success averaged 50% for adult females (range = 45–59%) and 83% for yearling females (range = 75–100%). Proportional hazard modeling indicated that precipitation increased the hazard of nest mortality. However, estimated hazard of nest predation was lowered when incubating females had greater shrub cover and visual obstruction around nests. Coyotes (Canis latrans) were the primary predator on turkey nests. We hypothesize that precipitation is the best predictor of nest survival for first nests because coyotes use olfaction effectively to find nesting females during wet periods. Temporally, as the nesting season progressed, precipitation declined and vegetation cover increased and coyotes may have more difficulty detecting nests under these conditions later in the nesting period. The interaction of concealment cover with precipitation indicated that nest hazard risk from daily precipitation was reduced with greater shrub cover. Management activities that promote greater shrub cover may partially offset the negative effects of greater precipitation events.     

Phenology largely explains taller grass at successful nests in greater sage‐grouse

Much interest lies in the identification of manageable habitat variables that affect key vital rates for species of concern. For ground‐nesting birds, vegetation surrounding the nest may play an important role in mediating nest success by providing concealment from predators. Height of grasses surrounding the nest is thought to be a driver of nest survival in greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse), a species that has experienced widespread population declines throughout their range. However, a growing body of the literature has found that widely used field methods can produce misleading inference on the relationship between grass height and nest success. Specifically, it has been demonstrated that measuring concealment following nest fate (failure or hatch) introduces a temporal bias whereby successful nests are measured later in the season, on average, than failed nests. This sampling bias can produce inference suggesting a positive effect of grass height on nest survival, though the relationship arises due to the confounding effect of plant phenology, not an effect on predation risk. To test the generality of this finding for sage‐grouse, we reanalyzed existing datasets comprising >800 sage‐grouse nests from three independent studies across the range where there was a positive relationship found between grass height and nest survival, including two using methods now known to be biased. Correcting for phenology produced equivocal relationships between grass height and sage‐grouse nest survival. Viewed in total, evidence for a ubiquitous biological effect of grass height on sage‐grouse nest success across time and space is lacking. In light of these findings, a reevaluation of land management guidelines emphasizing specific grass height targets to promote nest success may be merited.     

Use of mistletoes by the Grey Go‐away‐bird (Corythaixoides concolor,Musophagidae) in a semi‐arid savannah,south‐west Zimbabwe

Mistletoes are preferred nesting sites for many bird species in a range of habitats. However, no studies have examined the use of mistletoes by nesting birds in the semi‐arid savannah. We studied nesting in mistletoe and its role in determining nesting success in the Grey Go‐away‐bird in south‐west Zimbabwe. We modelled the effects of mistletoe, mistletoe abundance, nest microclimate, concealment and nest height on daily survival rates (DSR) using program MARK. A constant survival model was best fitted for the Grey Go‐away‐bird suggesting a constant nest survival rate across the nesting period. Mistletoe nests had lower DSR than nests placed elsewhere in the canopy. Mistletoe abundance and nest height had a positive association with DSR whereas visibility distance, microclimate and concealment were negatively associated with DSR. Overall, survival for nests in mistletoe was 22.1% compared with 90.5% for nests in other substrates over the 50‐day nesting period. In conclusion, the low nest survival in mistletoe suggests either that the factors used to select mistletoe as nest sites by these birds are poor predictors of nest success or that nesting in mistletoe may be maladaptive.     

Nest‐site selection and productivity of Vesper Sparrows breeding in grazed habitats

ABSTRACT Livestock grazing in the shortgrass steppe of the Intermountain region of British Columbia may have a negative impact on ground‐nesting birds, but evidence of such an impact is lacking. We examined nest‐site selection and productivity of ground‐nesting Vesper Sparrows (Pooecetes gramineus) across sites with different grazing histories. From 2006 to 2008, we monitored Vesper Sparrow nests and measured vegetation characteristics known to be affected by grazing within nest patches. We used an information‐theoretic approach to test the relative importance of grazing‐affected vegetation variables as predictors of nest‐site selection, nest survival, and nestling condition. Vesper Sparrows selected nest sites with greater cover of late‐seral grass species that decrease in occurrence in response to grazing (i.e., “decreasers”) than was available in random patches in the same territories. Daily nest survival was also lower for nests surrounded by shorter vegetation (odds ratio = 1.12). However, “decreaser” cover was not associated with either of the two indices of productivity measured (daily nest survival probability and nestling condition). In addition, vegetation height, although an important driver of success, was not linked with nest‐site selection, and no vegetation‐cover variable was positively associated with productivity, despite nest concealment being central to our predictions. This suggests that predation risk for nests in areas with shorter vegetation was being elevated through some factor unrelated to concealment. Our results show that grazing reduced both the availability of suitable habitat for and nesting success of Vesper Sparrows, indicating that grazing could pose a threat to population persistence at a broader scale and could potentially contribute to observed declines. Additional research is needed to determine if grazing guidelines in the Intermountain region of British Columbia should be amended, better enforced, or both to prevent regional declines in populations of ground‐nesting grassland birds.     

Testing the importance of nest concealment: does timing matter?

ABSTRACT.   Nest concealment by vegetation is considered an important factor affecting predation rates for many passerines and, therefore, is frequently measured in studies examining nest predation. However, the time when concealment measurements are made may affect the results of such studies, particularly in highly seasonal ecosystems where characteristics of the vegetation later in the breeding period may differ considerably from those at the time of nest-site selection. We used artificial nests baited with quail ( Coturnix sp.) eggs in a highly seasonal tropical dry forest in Jalisco, western Mexico, to test the effects of seasonal change in concealment on nest predation. We placed 40 open-cup, artificial nests in shrubs at the end of the dry season and again at the beginning of the rainy season in 2007, and monitored the fate of the nests and the degree of concealment by vegetation during both periods. Nest concealment was significantly greater during the wet season than during the dry season. The percentage of nests predated was marginally higher during the dry (100%) than the wet (72.5%) season, and daily nest survival was lower during the dry than the wet season. Our results suggest that, in highly seasonal environments such as tropical dry forests, delayed measurement of nest concealment after nest completion rather than during nesting may constitute a significant source of error.     

The breeding ecology of Reed Buntings Emberiza schoeniclus in farmland and wetland habitats in lowland England

We studied the nesting and feeding ecology of Reed Buntings Emberiza schoeniclus breeding on farmland and wetland habitats along the Trent Valley in Nottinghamshire, England. Rank and emergent vegetation accounted for most nests and most foraging by provisioning adults. Caterpillars and spiders accounted for 70% of chick invertebrate prey and all broods were fed cereal grain or other vegetable matter. Variation in the abundance of key invertebrate prey across habitats accounted for the foraging preferences of adult buntings. Depredation was the main cause of nest failure, and survival of nests at the egg stage was positively related to the extent of nest concealment. A measure of total brood biomass was positively related to the abundance of key invertebrate prey within 100 m of nests. Rank and emergent vegetation provided Reed Buntings with greater nest concealment and a richer source of invertebrate prey than agricultural habitats such as set-aside, cereals and oilseed rape. The provision of rank and emergent vegetation on farmland is likely to increase the nesting opportunities and productivity of Reed Buntings in agricultural landscapes.     

Microhabitat nest‐site selection by ducks in the boreal forest

The boreal forest is one of the North America’s most important breeding areas for ducks, but information about the nesting ecology of ducks in the region is limited. We collected microhabitat data related to vegetation structure and composition at 157 duck nests and paired random locations in Alberta’s boreal forest region from 2016 to 2018. We identified fine‐scale vegetation features selected by ducks for all nests, between nesting guilds, and among five species using conditional logistic regression. Ducks in the boreal forest selected nest sites with greater overhead and graminoid cover, but less forb cover than random sites. Characteristics of the nest sites of upland‐ and overwater‐nesting guilds differed, with species nesting in upland habitat selecting nests that provided greater shrub cover and less lateral concealment and species nesting over water selecting nests with less shrub cover. We examined the characteristics of nest sites of American Wigeon (Mareca americana), Blue‐winged Teal (Spatula discors), Green‐winged Teal (Anas crecca), Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and Ring‐necked Ducks (Aythya collaris), and found differences among species that may facilitate species coexistence at a regional scale. Our results suggest that females of species nesting in upland habitat selected nest sites that optimized concealment from aerial predators while also allowing detection of and escape from terrestrial predators. Consequently, alteration in the composition and heterogeneity of vegetation and predator communities caused by climate change and industrial development in the boreal forest of Canada may affect the nest‐site selection strategies of boreal ducks.     

Nest Predation of Greater Sage-Grouse in Relation to Microhabitat Factors and Predators

ABSTRACT Nest predation is a natural component of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) reproduction, but changes in nesting habitat and predator communities may adversely affect grouse populations. We used a 2-part approach to investigate sage-grouse nest predation. First, we used information criteria to compare nest survival models that included indices of common raven (Corvus corax) abundance with other survival models that consisted of day of incubation, grouse age, and nest microhabitat covariates using measurements from 77 of 87 sage-grouse nests. Second, we used video monitoring at a subsample of 55 of 87 nests to identify predators of depredated nests (n = 16) and evaluated the influence of microhabitat factors on the probability of predation by each predator species. The most parsimonious model for nest survival consisted of an interaction between day of incubation and abundance of common ravens (w_{ravenXincubation day} = 0.67). An estimated increase in one raven per 10-km transect survey was associated with a 7.4% increase in the odds of nest failure. Nest survival was relatively lower in early stages of incubation, and this effect was strengthened with increased raven numbers. Using video monitoring, we found the probability of raven predation increased with reduced shrub canopy cover. Also, we found differences in shrub canopy cover and understory visual obstruction between nests depredated by ravens and nests depredated by American badgers (Taxidea taxus). Increased raven numbers have negative effects on sage-grouse nest survival, especially in areas with relatively low shrub canopy cover. We encourage wildlife managers to reduce interactions between ravens and nesting sage-grouse by managing raven populations and restoring and maintaining shrub canopy cover in sage-grouse nesting areas.     

Nest‐site selection by Blue‐black Grassquits in a Neotropical savanna: do choices influence nest success?

ABSTRACT.   Nest-site choice affects individual fitness and possibly reflects natural selection of the capacity of individuals to select appropriate microhabitat features. From 2003 to 2005, we examined nest-site characteristics and nesting success of Blue-black Grassquits ( Volatinia jacarina ) in central Brazil. We compared the characteristics of nest sites and nonused sites, as well as the characteristics of successful and unsuccessful nests. Grassquit nest sites were structurally more complex than nonused sites. Shrub height and the interaction between vegetation height and percentage of ground coverage were the most important predictors of nest placement. Grassquits used only four (20%) of the 20 grass species in the study area, with Paspalum pectinatum used less than expected based on availability and Melinis minutiflora more than expected. The only variable that differed between unsuccessful and successful nests was the distance to nearest conspecific nest; the latter were about twice as far from neighboring nests as unsuccessful nests. The evaluation of microhabitat candidate models indicated that the daily survival probability of nests varied chiefly as a function of the interaction between their external height and inner depth. Greater survival occurred when the external height was minimized in combination with augmentation of internal depth of the nest cup. The link between nest success and the inverse association of external height and internal depth suggests that minimizing the visual cues of nest presence while maintaining a viable incubation chamber can positively affect nest success. Thus, we suggest that nest concealment is the most critical attribute associated with nest site choice for Blue-black Grassquits in the study area. Vegetation cover above the nest seems to be particularly important, perhaps as a strategy to deter visually oriented aerial predators.     

A nondestructive method for estimating the age of Clapper Rail eggs

ABSTRACT.   Estimates of nest survival rate are often based on the assumption that the rate is constant during the nest cycle. Because violating this assumption can generate biased estimates, determining the age of a nest is important. For precocial marsh birds, including Clapper Rails ( Rallus longirostris ), current estimates of nest survival do not take this source of bias into account because a standardized, nondestructive method for aging eggs in not available. We developed a nondestructive flotation technique using known-age nests that can be used to estimate the projected hatch date of Clapper Rail eggs within 3 d of the actual hatch date. This precision is limited in part due to variance in the length of incubation between nests and the common occurrence of asynchronous hatching. However, for investigators assessing the fate of Clapper Rail nests, our technique provides an effective and nondestructive method for projecting the hatch date of Clapper Rail eggs, and will facilitate unbiased estimates of nest survival rates.     

Interactive effects of time and vegetation on reproduction of redshanks (Tringa totanus) breeding in Wadden Sea salt marshes

As shown for various species, nesting waders are non-randomly distributed on wetlands and preferentially select riparian nest-sites adjacent to limnic or marine waterbodies. Studying the redshank Tringa totanus, we tested the hypotheses that, in a coastal wader species which conceals its clutch in vegetation, predation and hatching success are affected by vegetation zonation, and that breeding in lower salt marsh areas has negative consequences for reproduction. We further predicted effects of timing of breeding and breeding experience/age of adults potentially reflected by egg biometrics both on nest-site selection and reproduction. Effects of vegetation, space, time and individual quality on hatching success of redshanks were studied in the German part of the Wadden Sea. Dominant plant species, vertical vegetation structure and nest concealment varied significantly between nests. Variation in nest concealment was relatively low: about 90% of clutches were classified as being well concealed. This variation was explainable by vegetation structure but not by vegetation composition at the nest-site, distance to shoreline, and time of clutch initiation. Vertical vegetation structure varied by dominant plant species but not by distance to shoreline and time of clutch initiation. Hatching success of clutches was low (10.6%) due to high predation (daily predation rate: 7.4%). Hatching success and duration of clutch survival were negatively and predation positively related to the date of clutch initiation. Furthermore, negative relationships were found between egg size and predation and duration of survival, respectively. We assume that concealed nests, early breeding and breeding experience diminish predation in salt marsh breeding redshanks. Thus, redshank reproduction appears to be affected by interactive effects of timing of breeding and vegetation facilitating early breeding. In contrast to open-nesting species, breeding in riparian habitats next to waterbodies may be disadvantageous for species breeding concealed in vegetation if these are covered by less structured vegetation.     

Support for the nest mimicry hypothesis in Yellow-rumped Thornbills Acanthiza chrysorrhoa

The nest of the Yellow-rumped Thornbill Acanthiza chrysorrhoa (endemic to Australia) consists of a lower domed nest where the young are cared for and an upper cup-shaped structure, referred to as the false nest. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain the primary function of the false nest, but their predictions remain largely untested. Here, we test predictions of the nest mimicry hypothesis (with artificial nests) whereby the empty false nest acts as a decoy, deflecting visual nest predators and/or brood parasites away from the true nest below, thereby increasing nesting success. Clear detection of the false nest by adversaries is an intrinsic aspect of nest mimicry; thus we also test whether conspicuous nests (natural) are favoured by natural selection. Specifically, (1) we compare predation level at artificial domed nests with and without a false nest; and (2) we analyse associations between nest site concealment and nesting outcome in natural nests in a wild population. Supporting the nest mimicry hypothesis, predation level was significantly lower for artificial domed nests with false nests, and for natural nests with lower levels of concealment.     

Ground Roost Resource Selection for Merriam's Wild Turkeys

ABSTRACT Concealment cover is important for ground-roosting wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) poults immediately following hatch during the vulnerable, preflight stage. We compared concealment cover resources selected at ground roosts to those of nest sites and available resources for Merriam's turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA. Females with preflight poults selected ground roosts that were similar in structure to nest sites. Ground roosts and nests were greater in visual obstruction (unit odds ratios ≥1.19) than random sites. However, ground roosts were closer to meadow-forest edges than either nests or random sites (unit odds ratios ≤0.98). Structure at ground roosts may provide visual protection from predators, and management for shrub vegetation or woody debris along meadow-pine forest ecotones will provide cover for Merriam's turkey broods.     

Vegetation structure influences predation rates of early nests in subarctic breeding waders

Ground-nesting species are vulnerable to a wide range of predators and often experience very high levels of nest predation. Strategies to reduce nest vulnerability can include concealing nests in vegetation and/or nesting in locations in which nests and eggs are camouflaged and less easy for predators to locate. These strategies could have important implications for the distribution of ground-nesting species and the success rates of nests in areas with differing vegetation structure. However, the factors influencing the success of nest concealment and camouflage strategies in ground-nesting species are complex. Here we explore the effects of local vegetation structure and extent of nest concealment on nest predation rates in a range of ground-nesting, sympatric wader species with differing nest concealment strategies (open-nest species: Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus, Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria and Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus; concealed-nest species: Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa, Redshank Tringa totanus and Snipe Gallinago gallinago) in south Iceland, in landscapes that comprise substantial variability in vegetation structure at a range of scales. We monitored 469 nests of these six wader species in 2015 and 2016 and ~40% of these nests were predated. Nest predation rates were similar for open-nest and concealed-nest species and did not vary with vegetation structure in the surrounding landscape, but nest-concealing species were ~10% more likely to have nests predated when they were poorly concealed, and the frequency of poorly concealed nests was higher in colder conditions at the start of the breeding season. For concealed-nest species, the reduced capacity to hide nests in colder conditions is likely to reflect low rates of vegetation growth in such conditions. The ongoing trend for warmer springs at subarctic latitudes could result in more rapid vegetation growth, with consequent increases in the success rates of early nests of concealed-nest species. Temperature-related effects on nest concealment from predators could thus be an important mechanism through which climate change affecting vegetation could have population-level impacts on breeding birds at higher latitudes.     

Nest survival is influenced by parental behaviour and heterospecifics in a mixed‐species colony

Studies of avian nest success often focus on examining influences of variation in environmental and seasonal factors. However, in‐depth evaluations can also incorporate variation in individual incubation behaviour to further advance our understanding of avian reproductive ecology. We examined these relationships in colonially nesting Black‐crowned Night‐Herons Nycticorax nycticorax using intensive video‐monitoring methods to quantify incubation behaviours. We modelled nest survival as a function of both extrinsic factors and incubation behaviours over a 3‐year period (2010–12) on Alcatraz Island, USA. Model‐averaged parameter estimates indicated that nest survival increased as a function of greater incubation constancy (% of time spent incubating eggs within a 24‐h period), and average daily precipitation throughout the nesting stage. Common Ravens Corvus corax are the only known nest predator of Night‐Herons on Alcatraz Island, as on many other coastal Pacific islands. We also investigated the effects of heterospecific nesting of California Gulls Larus californicus and Western Gulls Larus occidentalis in a mixed‐species colony with Night‐Herons, based on nesting proximity data collected over a 2‐year period (2011–12). This second analysis indicated that, in addition to incubation behaviours, nesting heterospecifics are an important factor for explaining variation in Night‐Heron nest survival. However, contrary to our original expectation, we found that Night‐Herons experienced increased nest survival with increasing distance from gull colony boundaries. These results may apply to other areas with multiple colonial nesting species and similar predator communities and climatic patterns.     

Evaluating vegetation effects on animal demographics: the role of plant phenology and sampling bias

Plant phenological processes produce temporal variation in the height and cover of vegetation. Key aspects of animal life cycles, such as reproduction, often coincide with the growing season and therefore may inherently covary with plant growth. When evaluating the influence of vegetation variables on demographic rates, the decision about when to measure vegetation relative to the timing of demographic events is important to avoid confounding between the demographic rate of interest and vegetation covariates. Such confounding could bias estimated effect sizes or produce results that are entirely spurious. We investigated how the timing of vegetation sampling affected the modeled relationship between vegetation structure and nest survival of greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), using both simulated and observational data. We used the height of live grasses surrounding nests as an explanatory covariate, and analyzed its effect on daily nest survival. We compared results between models that included grass height measured at the time of nest fate (hatch or failure) with models where grass height was measured on a standardized date – that of predicted hatch date. Parameters linking grass height to nest survival based on measurements at nest fate produced more competitive models, but slope coefficients of grass height effects were biased high relative to truth in simulated scenarios. In contrast, measurements taken at predicted hatch date accurately predicted the influence of grass height on nest survival. Observational data produced similar results. Our results demonstrate the importance of properly considering confounding between demographic traits and plant phenology. Not doing so can produce results that are plausible, but ultimately inaccurate.     

Do trade‐offs between predation pressures on females versus nests drive nest‐site choice in painted turtles?

Predation strongly influences reproductive behaviours because reproducing individuals must balance mortality risks to themselves and to their offspring. In many freshwater turtles, the nest predation risk decreases with nest distance from water, whereas the predation risk to females increases farther from water. To determine whether predation pressure influences the distance from water at which female turtles nest, we measured predation pressure on nesting females and on nests, as well as the distances of nests to water, in two populations of painted turtles. Using models, we found that female survival in both populations was high and did not vary with distance from water. Nest survival was also uncorrelated with nest distance to water, although it was significantly lower than adult survival in both populations and was only 1.2% in one population. Our results suggest that nest sites are not predictably safe from predators. Instead, turtles may hedge their bets by nesting over a wide range of distances from water because any distance is risky for nests and no distance is particularly risky for the nesting female. We suggest that other factors, such as suitable incubation conditions and/or post‐emergence hatchling survival, probably play a larger role than predation in driving nest‐site choice in painted turtles.