Testing the molecular clock: molecular and paleontological estimates of divergence times in the Echinoidea (Echinodermata)

The phylogenetic relationships of 46 echinoids, with representatives from 13 of the 14 ordinal-level clades and about 70% of extant families commonly recognized, have been established from 3 genes (3,226 alignable bases) and 119 morphological characters. Morphological and molecular estimates are similar enough to be considered suboptimal estimates of one another, and the combined data provide a tree that, when calibrated against the fossil record, provides paleontological estimates of divergence times and completeness of their fossil record. The order of branching on the cladogram largely agrees with the stratigraphic order of first occurrences and implies that their fossil record is more than 85% complete at family level and at a resolution of 5-Myr time intervals. Molecular estimates of divergence times derived from applying both molecular clock and relaxed molecular clock models are concordant with estimates based on the fossil record in up to 70% of cases, with most concordant results obtained using Sanderson's semiparametric penalized likelihood method and a logarithmic-penalty function. There are 3 regions of the tree where molecular and fossil estimates of divergence time consistently disagree. Comparison with results obtained when molecular divergence dates are estimated from the combined (morphology + gene) tree suggests that errors in phylogenetic reconstruction explain only one of these. In another region the error most likely lies with the paleontological estimates because taxa in this region are demonstrated to have a very poor fossil record. In the third case, morphological and paleontological evidence is much stronger, and the topology for this part of the molecular tree differs from that derived from the combined data. Here the cause of the mismatch is unclear but could be methodological, arising from marked inequality of molecular rates. Overall, the level of agreement reached between these different data and methodological approaches leads us to believe that careful application of likelihood and Bayesian methods to molecular data provides realistic divergence time estimates in the majority of cases (almost 80% in this specific example), thus providing a remarkably well-calibrated phylogeny of a character-rich clade of ubiquitous marine benthic invertebrates.     

Ancient dates or accelerated rates? Morphological clocks and the antiquity of placental mammals

Analyses of a comprehensive morphological character matrix of mammals using ‘relaxed’ clock models (which simultaneously estimate topology, divergence dates and evolutionary rates), either alone or in combination with an 8.5 kb nuclear sequence dataset, retrieve implausibly ancient, Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous estimates for the initial diversification of Placentalia (crown-group Eutheria). These dates are much older than all recent molecular and palaeontological estimates. They are recovered using two very different clock models, and regardless of whether the tree topology is freely estimated or constrained using scaffolds to match the current consensus placental phylogeny. This raises the possibility that divergence dates have been overestimated in previous analyses that have applied such clock models to morphological and total evidence datasets. Enforcing additional age constraints on selected internal divergences results in only a slight reduction of the age of Placentalia. Constraining Placentalia to less than 93.8 Ma, congruent with recent molecular estimates, does not require major changes in morphological or molecular evolutionary rates. Even constraining Placentalia to less than 66 Ma to match the ‘explosive’ palaeontological model results in only a 10- to 20-fold increase in maximum evolutionary rate for morphology, and fivefold for molecules. The large discrepancies between clock- and fossil-based estimates for divergence dates might therefore be attributable to relatively small changes in evolutionary rates through time, although other explanations (such as overly simplistic models of morphological evolution) need to be investigated. Conversely, dates inferred using relaxed clock models (especially with discrete morphological data and MrBayes) should be treated cautiously, as relatively minor deviations in rate patterns can generate large effects on estimated divergence dates.     

Combining fossil and molecular data to date the diversification of New World Primates

Recent methodological advances in molecular dating associated with the growing availability of sequence data have prompted the study of the evolution of New World Anthropoidea in recent years. Motivated by questions regarding historical biogeography or the mode of evolution, these works aimed to obtain a clearer scenario of Platyrrhini origins and diversification. Although some consensus was found, disputed issues, especially those relating to the evolutionary affinities of fossil taxa, remain. The use of fossil taxa for divergence time analysis is traditionally restricted to the provision of calibration priors. However, new analytical approaches have been developed that incorporate fossils as terminals and, thus, directly assign ages to the fossil tips. In this study, we conducted a combined analysis of molecular and morphological data, including fossils, to derive the timescale of New World anthropoids. Differently from previous studies that conducted total‐evidence analysis of molecules and morphology, our approach investigated the morphological clock alone. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that living platyrrhines diversified in the last 20 Ma and that Miocene Patagonian fossils compose an independent evolutionary radiation that diversified in the late Oligocene. When compared to the node ages inferred from the molecular timescale, the inclusion of fossils augmented the precision of the estimates for nodes constrained by the fossil tips. We show that morphological data can be analysed using the same methodological framework applied in relaxed molecular clock studies.     

Assessing the sensitivity of divergence time estimates to locus sampling,calibration points,and model priors in a RAD-seq phylogeny of Carex section Schoenoxiphium

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) and related methods have become relatively common approaches to resolve species-level phylogeny. It is not clear, however, whether RAD-seq data matrices are well suited to relaxed clock inference of divergence times, given the size of the matrices and the abundance of missing data. We investigated the sensitivity of Bayesian relaxed clock estimates of divergence times to alternative analytical decisions on an empirical RAD-seq phylogenetic matrix. We explored the relative contribution of secondary calibration strategies, amount of missing data, and the data partition analyzed to overall variance in divergence times inferred using BEAST MCMC analyses of Carex section Schoenoxiphium (Cyperaceae)—a recent radiation for which we have nearly complete species sampling of RAD-seq data. The crown node for Schoenoxiphium was estimated to be 15.22 (9.56–21.18) Ma using a single calibration point and low missing data, 11.93 (8.07–16.03) Ma using multiple calibration points and low missing data, and 8.34 (5.41–11.22) using multiple calibrations but high missing data. We found that using matrices with more than half of the individuals with missing data inferred younger mean ages for all nodes. Moreover, we have found that our molecular clock estimates are sensitive to the positions of the calibration(s) in our phylogenetic tree (using matrices with low missing data), especially when only a single calibration was applied to estimate divergence times. These results argue for sensitivity analyses and caution in interpreting divergence time estimates from RAD-seq data.     

Dating dispersal and radiation in the gymnosperm Gnetum (Gnetales)--clock calibration when outgroup relationships are uncertain

Most implementations of molecular clocks require resolved topologies. However, one of the Bayesian relaxed clock approaches accepts input topologies that include polytomies. We explored the effects of resolved and polytomous input topologies in a rate-heterogeneous sequence data set for Gnetum, a member of the seed plant lineage Gnetales. Gnetum has 10 species in South America, 1 in tropical West Africa, and 20 to 25 in tropical Asia, and explanations for the ages of these disjunctions involve long-distance dispersal and/or the breakup of Gondwana. To resolve relationships within Gnetum, we sequenced most of its species for six loci from the chloroplast (rbcL, matK, and the trnT-trnF region), the nucleus (rITS/5.8S and the LEAFY gene second intron), and the mitochondrion (nad1 gene second intron). Because Gnetum has no fossil record, we relied on fossils from other Gnetales and from the seed plant lineages conifers, Ginkgo, cycads, and angiosperms to constrain a molecular clock and obtain absolute times for within-Gnetum divergence events. Relationships among Gnetales and the other seed plant lineages are still unresolved, and we therefore used differently resolved topologies, including one that contained a basal polytomy among gymnosperms. For a small set of Gnetales exemplars (n = 13) in which rbcL and matK satisfied the clock assumption, we also obtained time estimates from a strict clock, calibrated with one outgroup fossil. The changing hierarchical relationships among seed plants (and accordingly changing placements of distant fossils) resulted in small changes of within-Gnetum estimates because topologically closest constraints overrode more distant constraints. Regardless of the seed plant topology assumed, relaxed clock estimates suggest that the extant clades of Gnetum began diverging from each other during the Upper Oligocene. Strict clock estimates imply a mid-Miocene divergence. These estimates, together with the phylogeny for Gnetum from the six combined data sets, imply that the single African species of Gnetum is not a remnant of a once Gondwanan distribution. Miocene and Pliocene range expansions are inferred for the Asian subclades of Gnetum, which stem from an ancestor that arrived from Africa. These findings fit with seed dispersal by water in several species of Gnetum, morphological similarities among apparently young species, and incomplete concerted evolution in the nuclear ITS region.     

Erratic rates of molecular evolution and incongruence of fossil and molecular divergence time estimates in Ostracoda (Crustacea)

Dating evolutionary origins of taxa is essential for understanding rates and timing of evolutionary events, often inciting intense debate when molecular estimates differ from first fossil appearances. For numerous reasons, ostracods present a challenging case study of rates of evolution and congruence of fossil and molecular divergence time estimates. On the one hand, ostracods have one of the densest fossil records of any metazoan group. However, taxonomy of fossil ostracods is controversial, owing at least in part to homoplasy of carapaces, the most commonly fossilized part. In addition, rates of evolution are variable in ostracods. Here, we report evidence of extreme variation in the rate of molecular evolution in different ostracod groups. This rate is significantly elevated in Halocyprid ostracods, a widespread planktonic group, consistent with previous observations that planktonic groups show elevated rates of molecular evolution. At the same time, the rate of molecular evolution is slow in the lineage leading to Manawa staceyi, a relict species that we estimate diverged approximately 500 million years ago from its closest known living relative. We also report multiple cases of significant incongruence between fossil and molecular estimates of divergence times in Ostracoda. Although relaxed clock methods improve the congruence of fossil and molecular divergence estimates over strict clock models, incongruence is present regardless of method. We hypothesize that this observed incongruence is driven largely by problems with taxonomy of fossil Ostracoda. Our results illustrate the difficulty in consistently estimating lineage divergence times, even in the presence of a voluminous fossil record.     

Timing primate evolution: Lessons from the discordance between molecular and paleontological estimates

The molecular clock has become an increasingly important tool in evolutionary biology and biological anthropology. Nevertheless, a source of contention with respect to this method is the frequent discordance with fossil‐based estimates of divergence times. The primate radiation is a case in point: Numerous studies have dated the major primate nodes (reviewed in Steiper and Young, 1 , 2 ) and there are many instances where molecular and fossil‐based estimates of divergence times differ (Fig. 1). Some investigators have recently focused on phenomena such as stratigraphic dating, the stochastic nature of molecular time estimates, and other sources as potential biases in molecular clock estimates. 3 , 4 In this paper we do not focus on accuracy or statistical error; rather, we argue that discordance is a predictable phenomenon that provides valuable information about the tempo and mode of primate molecular and morphological evolution. Using this perspective, we reexamine the principal theoretical and methodological factors that lead to discordance between molecular and fossil estimates of the origins of taxa and discuss how a better understanding of these factors can help to improve our understanding of primate evolution.     

Calibration and error in placental molecular clocks: a conservative approach using the cetartiodactyl fossil record

The nature of the molecular and fossil record and their limitations must be ascertained in order to gain the most precise and accurate evolutionary timescale using genetic information. Yet the majority of such timescales are based on point estimates using fossils or the molecular clock. Here we document from the primary literature minimum and maximum fossil age estimates of the divergence of whales from artiodactyls, a commonly used anchor point for calibrating both mitogenomic and nucleogenomic placental timescales. We applied these reestimates to the most recently established placental timescale based on mitochondrial rRNA and several nuclear loci, and present an attempt to account for both genetic and fossil uncertainty. Our results indicate that disregard for fossil calibration error may inflate the power of the molecular clock when testing the time of ordinal diversification in context with the K-T boundary. However, the early history of placentals, including their superordinal diversification, remained in the Cretaceous despite a conservative approach. Our conclusions need corroboration across other frequently used fossil anchor points, but also with more genetic partitions on the linear relationship between molecular substitutions and geologic time.     

Bayesian relaxed clock estimation of divergence times in foraminifera

Accurate and precise estimation of divergence times during the Neo-Proterozoic is necessary to understand the speciation dynamic of early Eukaryotes. However such deep divergences are difficult to date, as the molecular clock is seriously violated. Recent improvements in Bayesian molecular dating techniques allow the relaxation of the molecular clock hypothesis as well as incorporation of multiple and flexible fossil calibrations. Divergence times can then be estimated even when the evolutionary rate varies among lineages and even when the fossil calibrations involve substantial uncertainties. In this paper, we used a Bayesian method to estimate divergence times in Foraminifera, a group of unicellular eukaryotes, known for their excellent fossil record but also for the high evolutionary rates of their genomes. Based on multigene data we reconstructed the phylogeny of Foraminifera and dated their origin and the major radiation events. Our estimates suggest that Foraminifera emerged during the Cryogenian (650-920 Ma, Neo-Proterozoic), with a mean time around 770 Ma, about 220 Myr before the first appearance of reliable foraminiferal fossils in sediments (545 Ma). Most dates are in agreement with the fossil record, but in general our results suggest earlier origins of foraminiferal orders. We found that the posterior time estimates were robust to specifications of the prior. Our results highlight inter-species variations of evolutionary rates in Foraminifera. Their effect was partially overcome by using the partitioned Bayesian analysis to accommodate rate heterogeneity among data partitions and using the relaxed molecular clock to account for changing evolutionary rates. However, more coding genes appear necessary to obtain more precise estimates of divergence times and to resolve the conflicts between fossil and molecular date estimates.     

Relaxed clocks and inferences of heterogeneous patterns of nucleotide substitution and divergence time estimates across whales and dolphins (Mammalia: Cetacea)

Various nucleotide substitution models have been developed to accommodate among lineage rate heterogeneity, thereby relaxing the assumptions of the strict molecular clock. Recently developed "uncorrelated relaxed clock" and "random local clock" (RLC) models allow decoupling of nucleotide substitution rates between descendant lineages and are thus predicted to perform better in the presence of lineage-specific rate heterogeneity. However, it is uncertain how these models perform in the presence of punctuated shifts in substitution rate, especially between closely related clades. Using cetaceans (whales and dolphins) as a case study, we test the performance of these two substitution models in estimating both molecular rates and divergence times in the presence of substantial lineage-specific rate heterogeneity. Our RLC analyses of whole mitochondrial genome alignments find evidence for up to ten clade-specific nucleotide substitution rate shifts in cetaceans. We provide evidence that in the uncorrelated relaxed clock framework, a punctuated shift in the rate of molecular evolution within a subclade results in posterior rate estimates that are either misled or intermediate between the disparate rate classes present in baleen and toothed whales. Using simulations, we demonstrate abrupt changes in rate isolated to one or a few lineages in the phylogeny can mislead rate and age estimation, even when the node of interest is calibrated. We further demonstrate how increasing prior age uncertainty can bias rate and age estimates, even while the 95% highest posterior density around age estimates decreases; in other words, increased precision for an inaccurate estimate. We interpret the use of external calibrations in divergence time studies in light of these results, suggesting that rate shifts at deep time scales may mislead inferences of absolute molecular rates and ages.     

A practical guide to molecular dating

Molecular dating has now become a common tool for many biologists and considerable methodological improvements have been made over the last few years. However, the practice of estimating divergence times using molecular data is highly variable among researchers and it is not straightforward for a newcomer to the field to know how to start. Here I provide a brief overview of the current state-of-the-art of molecular dating practice. I review some of the important choices that must be made when conducting a divergence time analysis, including how to select and use calibrations and which relaxed clock model and program to use, with a focus on some practical aspects. I then provide some guidelines for the interpretation of results and briefly review some alternatives to molecular dating for obtaining divergence times. Last, I present some promising developments for the future of the field, related to the improvement of the calibration process.     

Grafting the molecular phylogenetic tree with morphological branches to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the genus Zaprionus (Diptera: Drosophilidae)

A molecular phylogeny for the drosophilid genus Zaprionus was inferred using a mitochondrial (CO-II) and a nuclear (Amyrel) gene using 22 available species. The combined molecular tree does not support the current classification, dubbed phylogenetic, based entirely upon a morphocline of forefemoral ornamentation. For species for which DNA was not available, phylogenetic positioning was only assigned using morphological characters. In order to avoid conflict between DNA and morphology in the combined analyses (supermatrix method), we developed a new method in which few morphological characters were sampled according to an a priori homoplasy assessment on the consensus molecular tree. At each internal node of the tree, a number of synapomorphies was determined, and species with no molecular sequences were grafted thereon. Analogously to tree vocabulary, we called our method 'morphological grafting'. New species groups and complexes were then defined in the light of our findings. Further, divergence times were estimated under a relaxed molecular clock, and historical biogeography was reconstructed under a maximum likelihood model. Zaprionus appears to be of recent origin in the Oriental region during the Late Miocene ( approximately 10 MYA), and colonization of Africa started shortly after ( approximately 7 MYA) via the maritime route of the Indian Ocean Islands. Most of the morphological and ecological diversification took place, later, in Western Africa during the Quaternary cyclic climatic changes. Furthermore, some species became recent invaders, with one, Zaprionus indianus, has successfully invaded South and North America during the last decade.     

Dating the arthropod tree based on large-scale transcriptome data

Molecular sequences do not only allow the reconstruction of phylogenetic relationships among species, but also provide information on the approximate divergence times. Whereas the fossil record dates the origin of most multicellular animal phyla during the Cambrian explosion less than 540 million years ago(mya), molecular clock calculations usually suggest much older dates. Here we used a large multiple sequence alignment derived from Expressed Sequence Tags and genomes comprising 129genes (37,476 amino acid positions) and 117 taxa, including 101 arthropods. We obtained consistent divergence time estimates applying relaxed Bayesian clock models with different priors and multiple calibration points. While the influence of substitution rates, missing data, and model priors were negligible, the clock model had significant effect. A log-normal autocorrelated model was selected on basis of cross-validation. We calculated that arthropods emerged ~600 mya. Onychophorans (velvet worms) and euarthropods split ~590 mya, Pancrustacea and Myriochelata ~560 mya, Myriapoda and Chelicerata ~555 mya, and 'Crustacea' and Hexapoda ~510 mya. Endopterygote insects appeared ~390 mya. These dates are considerably younger than most previous molecular clock estimates and in better agreement with the fossil record. Nevertheless, a Precambrian origin of arthropods and other metazoan phyla is still supported. Our results also demonstrate the applicability of large datasets of random nuclear sequences for approximating the timing of multicellular animal evolution.     

Molecular dating in the genomic era

The comparison of DNA and protein sequences of extant species might be informative for reconstructing the chronology of evolutionary events on Earth. A phylogenetic tree inferred from molecular data directly depicts the evolutionary affinities of species and indirectly allows estimating the age of their origin and diversification. Molecular dating is achieved by assuming the molecular clock hypothesis, i.e., that the rate of change of nucleotide and amino acid sequences is on average constant over geological time. If paleontological calibrations are available, then absolute divergence times of species can be estimated. However, three major difficulties potentially hamper molecular dating : (1) a limited sample of genes and organisms, (2) a limited number of fossil references, and (3) pervasive variations of molecular evolutionary rates among genomes and species. To circumvent these problems, different solutions have been recently proposed. Larger data sets are built with more genes and more species sampled through the mining of an increasing number of genomes. Moreover, independent key fossils are identified to calibrate molecular clocks, and the uncertainty on their age is integrated in subsequent analyses. Finally, models of molecular rate variations are constructed, and incorporated in the so-called relaxed molecular clock approaches. As an illustration of these improvements, we mention that the debated age of the animal (bilaterian metazoans) diversification may have occurred between 642-761 million years ago (Mya), roughly 100 Ma before the Cambrian explosion. Among mammals, the initial diversification of major placental groups may have taken place around 100 Mya, well before the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary marking the extinction of dinosaurs.     

Genomic data reject the hypothesis of a prosimian primate clade

The phylogenetic position of tarsiers within the primates has been a controversial subject for over a century. Despite numerous morphological and molecular studies, there has been weak support for grouping tarsiers with either strepsirrhine primates in a prosimian clade or with anthropoids in a haplorrhine clade. Here, we take advantage of the recently released whole genome assembly of the Philippine tarsier, Tarsius syrichta, in order to infer the phylogenetic relationship of Tarsius within the order Primates. We also present estimates of divergence times within the primates. Using a 1.26 million base pair multiple sequence alignment derived from 1078 orthologous genes, we provide overwhelming statistical support for the presence of a haplorrhine clade. We also present divergence date estimates using local relaxed molecular clock methods. The estimated time of the most recent common ancestor of extant Primates ranged from 64.9 Ma to 72.6 Ma, and haplorrhines were estimated to have a most recent common ancestor between 58.9 Ma and 68.6 Ma. Examination of rates of nucleotide substitution in the three major extant primate clades show that anthropoids have a slower substitution rate than either strepsirrhines or tarsiers. Our results provide the framework on which primate morphological, reproductive, and genomic features can be reconstructed in the broader context of mammalian phylogeny.     

Of teeth and trees: A fossil tip‐dating approach to infer divergence times of extinct and extant squaliform sharks

Fossil tip‐dating allows for the inclusion of morphological data in divergence time estimates based on both extant and extinct taxa. Neoselachii have a cartilaginous skeleton, which is less prone to fossilization compared to skeletons of Osteichthyans. Therefore, the majority of the neoselachian fossil record is comprised of single teeth, which fossilize more easily. Neoselachian teeth can be found in large numbers as they are continuously replaced. Tooth morphologies are of major importance on multiple taxonomic levels for identification of shark and ray taxa. Here, we review dental morphological characters of squalomorph sharks and test these for their phylogenetic signal. Subsequently, we combine DNA sequence data (concatenated exon sequences) with dental morphological characters from 85 fossil and extant taxa to simultaneously infer the phylogeny and re‐estimate divergence times using information of 61 fossil tip‐dates as well as eight node age calibrations of squalomorph sharks. Our findings show that the phylogenetic placement of fossil taxa is mostly in accordance with their previous taxonomic allocation. An exception is the phylogenetic placement of the extinct genus ?Protospinax , which remains unclear. We conclude that the high number of fossil taxa as well as the comprehensive DNA sequence data for extant taxa may compensate for the limited number of morphological characters identifiable on teeth, serving as a backbone for reliably estimating the phylogeny of both extinct and extant taxa. In general, tip‐dating mostly estimates older node ages compared to previous studies based on calibrated molecular clocks.     

The origin and diversification of eukaryotes: problems with molecular phylogenetics and molecular clock estimation

Determining the relationships among and divergence times for the major eukaryotic lineages remains one of the most important and controversial outstanding problems in evolutionary biology. The sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes led to the first nearly comprehensive phylogenies of eukaryotes in the late 1980s, and supported a view where cellular complexity was acquired during the divergence of extant unicellular eukaryote lineages. More recently, however, refinements in analytical methods coupled with the availability of many additional genes for phylogenetic analysis showed that much of the deep structure of early rRNA trees was artefactual. Recent phylogenetic analyses of a multiple genes and the discovery of important molecular and ultrastructural phylogenetic characters have resolved eukaryotic diversity into six major hypothetical groups. Yet relationships among these groups remain poorly understood because of saturation of sequence changes on the billion-year time-scale, possible rapid radiations of major lineages, phylogenetic artefacts and endosymbiotic or lateral gene transfer among eukaryotes. Estimating the divergence dates between the major eukaryote lineages using molecular analyses is even more difficult than phylogenetic estimation. Error in such analyses comes from a myriad of sources including: (i) calibration fossil dates, (ii) the assumed phylogenetic tree, (iii) the nucleotide or amino acid substitution model, (iv) substitution number (branch length) estimates, (v) the model of how rates of evolution change over the tree, (vi) error inherent in the time estimates for a given model and (vii) how multiple gene data are treated. By reanalysing datasets from recently published molecular clock studies, we show that when errors from these various sources are properly accounted for, the confidence intervals on inferred dates can be very large. Furthermore, estimated dates of divergence vary hugely depending on the methods used and their assumptions. Accurate dating of divergence times among the major eukaryote lineages will require a robust tree of eukaryotes, a much richer Proterozoic fossil record of microbial eukaryotes assignable to extant groups for calibration, more sophisticated relaxed molecular clock methods and many more genes sampled from the full diversity of microbial eukaryotes.     

Dating the time of viral subtype divergence

Precise dating of viral subtype divergence enables researchers to correlate divergence with geographic and demographic occurrences. When historical data are absent (that is, the overwhelming majority), viral sequence sampling on a time scale commensurate with the rate of substitution permits the inference of the times of subtype divergence. Currently, researchers use two strategies to approach this task, both requiring strong conditions on the molecular clock assumption of substitution rate. As the underlying structure of the substitution rate process at the time of subtype divergence is not understood and likely highly variable, we present a simple method that estimates rates of substitution, and from there, times of divergence, without use of an assumed molecular clock. We accomplish this by blending estimates of the substitution rate for triplets of dated sequences where each sequence draws from a distinct viral subtype, providing a zeroth-order approximation for the rate between subtypes. As an example, we calculate the time of divergence for three genes among influenza subtypes A-H3N2 and B using subtype C as an outgroup. We show a time of divergence approximately 100 years ago, substantially more recent than previous estimates which range from 250 to 3800 years ago.     

Molecular‐clock methods for estimating evolutionary rates and timescales

The molecular clock presents a means of estimating evolutionary rates and timescales using genetic data. These estimates can lead to important insights into evolutionary processes and mechanisms, as well as providing a framework for further biological analyses. To deal with rate variation among genes and among lineages, a diverse range of molecular‐clock methods have been developed. These methods have been implemented in various software packages and differ in their statistical properties, ability to handle different models of rate variation, capacity to incorporate various forms of calibrating information and tractability for analysing large data sets. Choosing a suitable molecular‐clock model can be a challenging exercise, but a number of model‐selection techniques are available. In this review, we describe the different forms of evolutionary rate heterogeneity and explain how they can be accommodated in molecular‐clock analyses. We provide an outline of the various clock methods and models that are available, including the strict clock, local clocks, discrete clocks and relaxed clocks. Techniques for calibration and clock‐model selection are also described, along with methods for handling multilocus data sets. We conclude our review with some comments about the future of molecular clocks.