Using dynamic N‐mixture models to test cavity limitation on northern flying squirrel demographic parameters using experimental nest box supplementation

Dynamic N‐mixture models have been recently developed to estimate demographic parameters of unmarked individuals while accounting for imperfect detection. We propose an application of the Dail and Madsen ( 2011 : Biometrics, 67 , 577–587) dynamic N‐mixture model in a manipulative experiment using a before‐after control‐impact design (BACI). Specifically, we tested the hypothesis of cavity limitation of a cavity specialist species, the northern flying squirrel, using nest box supplementation on half of 56 trapping sites. Our main purpose was to evaluate the impact of an increase in cavity availability on flying squirrel population dynamics in deciduous stands in northwestern Québec with the dynamic N‐mixture model. We compared abundance estimates from this recent approach with those from classic capture–mark–recapture models and generalized linear models. We compared apparent survival estimates with those from Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) models. Average recruitment rate was 6 individuals per site after 4 years. Nevertheless, we found no effect of cavity supplementation on apparent survival and recruitment rates of flying squirrels. Contrary to our expectations, initial abundance was not affected by conifer basal area (food availability) and was negatively affected by snag basal area (cavity availability). Northern flying squirrel population dynamics are not influenced by cavity availability at our deciduous sites. Consequently, we suggest that this species should not be considered an indicator of old forest attributes in our study area, especially in view of apparent wide population fluctuations across years. Abundance estimates from N‐mixture models were similar to those from capture–mark–recapture models, although the latter had greater precision. Generalized linear mixed models produced lower abundance estimates, but revealed the same relationship between abundance and snag basal area. Apparent survival estimates from N‐mixture models were higher and less precise than those from CJS models. However, N‐mixture models can be particularly useful to evaluate management effects on animal populations, especially for species that are difficult to detect in situations where individuals cannot be uniquely identified. They also allow investigating the effects of covariates at the site level, when low recapture rates would require restricting classic CMR analyses to a subset of sites with the most captures.     

PATHOGEN LIFE‐HISTORY TRADE‐OFFS REVEALED IN ALLOPATRY

Trade‐offs in life‐history traits is a central tenet in evolutionary biology, yet their ubiquity and relevance to realized fitness in natural populations remains questioned. Trade‐offs in pathogens are of particular interest because they may constrain the evolution and epidemiology of diseases. Here, we studied life‐history traits determining transmission in the obligate fungal pathogen, Podosphaera plantaginis, infecting Plantago lanceolata. We find that although traits are positively associated on sympatric host genotypes, on allopatric host genotypes relationships between infectivity and subsequent transmission traits change shape, becoming even negative. The epidemiological prediction of this change in life‐history relationships in allopatry is lower disease prevalence in newly established pathogen populations. An analysis of the natural pathogen metapopulation confirms that disease prevalence is lower in newly established pathogen populations and they are more prone to go extinct during winter than older pathogen populations. Hence, life‐history trade‐offs mediated by pathogen local adaptation may influence epidemiological dynamics at both population and metapopulation levels.     

Interactions between host sex and age of exposure modify the virulence–transmission trade‐off

The patterns of immunity conferred by host sex or age represent two sources of host heterogeneity that can potentially shape the evolutionary trajectory of disease. With each host sex or age encountered, a pathogen's optimal exploitative strategy may change, leading to considerable variation in expression of pathogen transmission and virulence. To date, these host characteristics have been studied in the context of host fitness alone, overlooking the effects of host sex and age on the fundamental virulence–transmission trade‐off faced by pathogens. Here, we explicitly address the interaction of these characteristics and find that host sex and age at exposure to a pathogen affect age‐specific patterns of mortality and the balance between pathogen transmission and virulence. When infecting age‐structured male and female Daphnia magna with different genotypes of Pasteuria ramosa, we found that infection increased mortality rates across all age classes for females, whereas mortality only increased in the earliest age class for males. Female hosts allowed a variety of trade‐offs between transmission and virulence to arise with each age and pathogen genotype. In contrast, this variation was dampened in males, with pathogens exhibiting declines in both virulence and transmission with increasing host age. Our results suggest that differences in exploitation potential of males and females to a pathogen can interact with host age to allow different virulence strategies to coexist, and illustrate the potential for these widespread sources of host heterogeneity to direct the evolution of disease in natural populations.     

Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long‐term wild host–pathogen association

Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change – increasing temperature – on the long‐term epidemiology of a natural host–pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host–pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25‐year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long‐term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April‐November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host–pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far‐reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future.     

Host resistance and pathogen infectivity in host populations with varying connectivity

Theory predicts that hosts and pathogens will evolve higher resistance and aggressiveness in systems where populations are spatially connected than in situations in which populations are isolated and dispersal is more local. In a large cross‐inoculation experiment we surveyed patterns of host resistance and pathogen infectivity in anther‐smut diseased Viscaria alpina populations from three contrasting areas where populations range from continuous, through patchy but spatially connected to highly isolated demes. In agreement with theory, isolated populations of V. alpina were more susceptible on average than either patchily distributed or continuous populations. While increased dispersal in connected systems increases disease spread, it may also increase host gene flow and the potential for greater host resistance to evolve. In the Viscaria–Microbotryum system, pathogen infectivity mirrored patterns of host resistance with strains from the isolated populations being the least infective and strains from the more resistant continuous populations being the most infective on average, suggesting that high resistance selects for high infectivity. To our knowledge this study is the first to characterize the impacts of varying spatial connectivity on patterns of host resistance and pathogen infectivity in a natural system.     

Virulence of oomycete pathogens from Phragmites australis‐invaded and noninvaded soils to seedlings of wetland plant species

Soil pathogens affect plant community structure and function through negative plant–soil feedbacks that may contribute to the invasiveness of non‐native plant species. Our understanding of these pathogen‐induced soil feedbacks has relied largely on observations of the collective impact of the soil biota on plant populations, with few observations of accompanying changes in populations of specific soil pathogens and their impacts on invasive and noninvasive species. As a result, the roles of specific soil pathogens in plant invasions remain unknown. In this study, we examine the diversity and virulence of soil oomycete pathogens in freshwater wetland soils invaded by non‐native Phragmites australis (European common reed) to better understand the potential for soil pathogen communities to impact a range of native and non‐native species and influence invasiveness. We isolated oomycetes from four sites over a 2‐year period, collecting nearly 500 isolates belonging to 36 different species. These sites were dominated by species of Pythium, many of which decreased seedling survival of a range of native and invasive plants. Despite any clear host specialization, many of the Pythium species were differentially virulent to the native and non‐native plant species tested. Isolates from invaded and noninvaded soils were equally virulent to given individual plant species, and no apparent differences in susceptibility were observed between the collective groups of native and non‐native plant species.     

Linking anthropogenic resources to wildlife–pathogen dynamics: a review and meta‐analysis

Urbanisation and agriculture cause declines for many wildlife, but some species benefit from novel resources, especially food, provided in human‐dominated habitats. Resulting shifts in wildlife ecology can alter infectious disease dynamics and create opportunities for cross‐species transmission, yet predicting host–pathogen responses to resource provisioning is challenging. Factors enhancing transmission, such as increased aggregation, could be offset by better host immunity due to improved nutrition. Here, we conduct a review and meta‐analysis to show that food provisioning results in highly heterogeneous infection outcomes that depend on pathogen type and anthropogenic food source. We also find empirical support for behavioural and immune mechanisms through which human‐provided resources alter host exposure and tolerance to pathogens. A review of recent theoretical models of resource provisioning and infection dynamics shows that changes in host contact rates and immunity produce strong non‐linear responses in pathogen invasion and prevalence. By integrating results of our meta‐analysis back into a theoretical framework, we find provisioning amplifies pathogen invasion under increased host aggregation and tolerance, but reduces transmission if provisioned food decreases dietary exposure to parasites. These results carry implications for wildlife disease management and highlight areas for future work, such as how resource shifts might affect virulence evolution.     

Within‐ and among‐population variation in infectivity,latency and spore production in a host–pathogen system

In spatially structured populations, host–parasite coevolutionary potential depends on the distribution of genetic variation within and among populations. Inoculation experiments using the plant, Silene latifolia, and its fungal pathogen, Microbotryum violaceum, revealed little overall differentiation in infectivity/resistance, latency or spore production among host or pathogen populations. Within populations, fungal strains had similar means, but varied in performance across plant populations. Variation in resistance among seed families indicates the potential for parasite‐mediated selection, whereas there was little evidence for local pathogen genotype × plant genotype interactions assumed by most theoretical coevolution models. Lower spore production on sympatric than allopatric hosts confirmed local fungal maladaptation already observed for infectivity. Correlations between infectivity and latency or spore production suggest a common mechanism for variation in these traits. Our results suggest low variation available to this pathogen for tracking its coevolving host. This may be caused by random drift, breeding system or migration characteristic of metapopulation dynamics.     

multimark: an R package for analysis of capture–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks

I describe an open‐source R package, multimark , for estimation of survival and abundance from capture–mark–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks. Noninvasive marks include natural pelt or skin patterns, scars, and genetic markers that enable individual identification in lieu of physical capture. multimark provides a means for combining and jointly analyzing encounter histories from multiple noninvasive sources that otherwise cannot be reliably matched (e.g., left‐ and right‐sided photographs of bilaterally asymmetrical individuals). The package is currently capable of fitting open population Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) and closed population abundance models with up to two mark types using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. multimark can also be used for Bayesian analyses of conventional capture–recapture data consisting of a single‐mark type. Some package features include (1) general model specification using formulas already familiar to most R users, (2) ability to include temporal, behavioral, age, cohort, and individual heterogeneity effects in detection and survival probabilities, (3) improved MCMC algorithm that is computationally faster and more efficient than previously proposed methods, (4) Bayesian multimodel inference using reversible jump MCMC, and (5) data simulation capabilities for power analyses and assessing model performance. I demonstrate use of multimark using left‐ and right‐sided encounter histories for bobcats (Lynx rufus) collected from remote single‐camera stations in southern California. In this example, there is evidence of a behavioral effect (i.e., trap “happy” response) that is otherwise indiscernible using conventional single‐sided analyses. The package will be most useful to ecologists seeking stronger inferences by combining different sources of mark–recapture data that are difficult (or impossible) to reliably reconcile, particularly with the sparse datasets typical of rare or elusive species for which noninvasive sampling techniques are most commonly employed. Addressing deficiencies in currently available software, multimark also provides a user‐friendly interface for performing Bayesian multimodel inference using capture–recapture data consisting of a single conventional mark or multiple noninvasive marks.     

Resistance,tolerance and environmental transmission dynamics determine host extinction risk in a load‐dependent amphibian disease

While disease‐induced extinction is generally considered rare, a number of recently emerging infectious diseases with load‐dependent pathology have led to extinction in wildlife populations. Transmission is a critical factor affecting disease‐induced extinction, but the relative importance of transmission compared to load‐dependent host resistance and tolerance is currently unknown. Using a combination of models and experiments on an amphibian species suffering extirpations from the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), we show that while transmission from an environmental Bd reservoir increased the ability of Bd to invade an amphibian population and the extinction risk of that population, Bd‐induced extinction dynamics were far more sensitive to host resistance and tolerance than to Bd transmission. We demonstrate that this is a general result for load‐dependent pathogens, where non‐linear resistance and tolerance functions can interact such that small changes in these functions lead to drastic changes in extinction dynamics.     

Soil pathogen communities associated with native and non‐native Phragmites australis populations in freshwater wetlands

Soil pathogens are believed to be major contributors to negative plant–soil feedbacks that regulate plant community dynamics and plant invasions. While the theoretical basis for pathogen regulation of plant communities is well established within the plant–soil feedback framework, direct experimental evidence for pathogen community responses to plants has been limited, often relying largely on indirect evidence based on above‐ground plant responses. As a result, specific soil pathogen responses accompanying above‐ground plant community dynamics are largely unknown. Here, we examine the oomycete pathogens in soils conditioned by established populations of native noninvasive and non‐native invasive haplotypes of Phragmites australis (European common reed). Our aim was to assess whether populations of invasive plants harbor unique communities of pathogens that differ from those associated with noninvasive populations and whether the distribution of taxa within these communities may help to explain invasive success. We compared the composition and abundance of pathogenic and saprobic oomycete species over a 2‐year period. Despite a diversity of oomycete taxa detected in soils from both native and non‐native populations, pathogen communities from both invaded and noninvaded soils were dominated by species of Pythium. Pathogen species that contributed the most to the differences observed between invaded and noninvaded soils were distributed between invaded and noninvaded soils. However, the specific taxa in invaded soils responsible for community differences were distinct from those in noninvaded soils that contributed to community differences. Our results indicate that, despite the phylogenetic relatedness of native and non‐native P. australis haplotypes, pathogen communities associated with the dominant non‐native haplotype are distinct from those of the rare native haplotype. Pathogen taxa that dominate either noninvaded or invaded soils suggest different potential mechanisms of invasion facilitation. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that non‐native plant species that dominate landscapes may “cultivate” a different soil pathogen community to their rhizosphere than those of rarer native species.     

Local adaptation and effect of host genotype on the rate of pathogen evolution: an experimental test in a plant pathosystem

Abstract Virulence is thought to be a driving force in host–pathogen coevolution. Theoretical models suggest that virulence is an unavoidable consequence of pathogens evolving towards a high rate of intrahost reproduction. These models predict a positive correlation between the reproductive fitness of a pathogen and its level of virulence. Theoretical models also suggest that the demography and genetic structure of a host population can influence the evolution of virulence. If evolution occurs faster in pathogen populations than in host populations, the predicted result is local adaptation of the pathogen population. In our studies, we used a combination of molecular and physiological markers to test these hypotheses in an agricultural system. We isolated five strains of the fungal pathogen Mycosphaerella graminicola from each of two wheat cultivars that differed in their level of resistance to this pathogen. Each of the 10 fungal strains had distinct genotypes as indicated by different DNA fingerprints. These fungal strains were re‐inoculated onto the same two host cultivars in a field experiment and their genotype frequencies were monitored over several generations of asexual reproduction. We also measured the virulence of these 10 fungal strains and correlated it to the reproductive fitness of each fungal strain. We found that host genotypes had a strong impact on the dynamics of the pathogen populations. The pathogen population collected from the moderately resistant cultivar Madsen showed greater stability, higher genotype diversity, and smaller selection coefficients than the pathogen populations collected from the susceptible cultivar Stephens or a mixture of the two host cultivars. The pathogen collection from the mixed host population was midway between the two pure lines for most parameters measured. Our results also revealed that the measures of reproductive fitness and virulence of a pathogen strain were not always correlated. The pathogen strains varied in their patterns of local adaptation, ranging from locally adapted to locally maladapted.     

An approach for assessing paddlefish Polyodon spathula (Walbaum, 1792) populations using mark‐recapture information

Historically, management of fish populations has been achieved through the use of age‐derived estimates of growth and mortality. For long‐lived species such as the paddlefish, Polyodon spathula, the validation of calcified structures is necessary to correct for the presence of false annuli or the absence of growth rings. Regardless, numerous studies on paddlefish populations throughout their range have continued the use of un‐validated age estimates to evaluate dynamic rate functions. The use of mark‐recapture studies has been applied widely to evaluate growth of short‐lived fishes, but only recently to a few long‐lived freshwater fishes (i.e. white sturgeon, shovelnose sturgeon, and pallid sturgeon). This study provides the first simultaneous evaluation of both mark‐recapture and age‐estimate information in determining population characteristics for paddlefish. In doing so, this study has determined that the P. spathula population in the Black River below Clearwater Dam, Missouri is sustainable. Additionally, mark‐recapture information is sufficient to produce accurate and reliable assessments of paddlefish populations in lieu of validated aging structures; future management should be centered on accurate scientific methods, which is not the case when using un‐validated aging structures (e.g. scales, otoliths, fin rays, dentary bones) to determine population parameters. Mark‐recapture information can provide an accurate, alternative source of growth and mortality information for use in evaluating and managing paddlefish populations throughout their range.     

Individually mark–mass release–resight study elucidates effects of patch characteristics and distance on host patch location by an insect herbivore

1. How organisms locate their hosts is of fundamental importance in a variety of basic and applied ecological fields, including population dynamics, invasive species management and biological control. However, tracking movement of small organisms, such as insects, poses significant logistical challenges. 2. Mass‐release and individual–mark–recapture techniques were combined in an individually mark–mass release–resight (IMMRR) approach to track the movement of over 2000 adult insects in an economically important plant–herbivore system. Despite its widespread use for the biological control of the invasive thistle Carduus nutans, the host‐finding behaviour of the thistle head weevil Rhinocyllus conicus has not previously been studied. Insects were released at different distances from a mosaic of artificially created host patches with different areas and number of plants to assess the ecological determinants of patch finding. 3. The study was able to characterize the within‐season dispersal abilities and between‐patch movement patterns of R. conicus. Weevils found host plant patches over 900 m away. Large patches, with tall plants, situated close to the nearest release point had the highest first R. conicus resights. Patch area and plant density had no effect on the number of weevils resighted per plant; however, R. conicus individuals were more likely to disperse out of small patches and into large patches. 4. By understanding how R. conicus locates host patches of C. nutans, management activities for the control of this invasive thistle can be better informed. A deeper mechanistic understanding of host location will also improve prediction of coupled plant–herbivore spatial dynamics in general.     

Integrating stable isotopes,parasite, and ring‐reencounter data to quantify migratory connectivity—A case study with Barn Swallows breeding in Switzerland,Germany, Sweden,and Finland

Ecosystems around the world are connected by seasonal migration. The migrant animals themselves are influenced by migratory connectivity through effects on the individual and the population level. Measuring migratory connectivity is notoriously difficult due to the simple requirement of data conveying information about the nonbreeding distribution of many individuals from several breeding populations. Explicit integration of data derived from different methods increases the precision and the reliability of parameter estimates. We combine ring‐reencounter, stable isotope, and blood parasite data of Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica in a single integrated model to estimate migratory connectivity for three large scale breeding populations across a latitudinal gradient from Central Europe to Scandinavia. To this end, we integrated a non‐Markovian multistate mark‐recovery model for the ring‐reencounter data with normal and binomial mixture models for the stable isotope and parasite data. The integration of different data sources within a mark‐recapture modeling framework enables the most precise quantification of migratory connectivity on the given broad spatial scale. The results show that northern‐breeding populations and Southern Africa as well as southern‐breeding populations and Western–Central Africa are more strongly connected through Barn Swallow migration than central European breeding populations with any of the African wintering areas. The nonbreeding distribution of Barn Swallows from central European breeding populations seems to be a mixture of those populations breeding further north and south, indicating a migratory divide.     

Use of PIT tags to assess individual heterogeneity of laboratory‐reared juveniles of the endangered Cumberlandian combshell (Epioblasma brevidens) in a mark–recapture study

The federally endangered Cumberlandian combshell (Epioblasma brevidens) was propagated and reared to taggable size (5–10 mm), and released to the Powell River, Tennessee, to augment a relict population. Methodology using passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags on these mussels greatly facilitated the detection process. The overall mean detection probability and survival rate of released individuals reached 97.8 to 98.4% and 99.7 to 99.9% (per month), respectively, during nine successive recapture occasions in the 2‐year study period, regardless of seasonality. Nonhierarchical models and hierarchical models incorporating individual and seasonal variations through a Bayesian approach were compared and resulted in similar performance of prediction for detection probability and survival rate of mussels. This is the first study to apply the mark–recapture method to laboratory‐reared mussels using PIT tags and stochastic models. Quantitative analyses for individual heterogeneity allowed examination of demographic variance and effects of heterogeneity on population dynamics, although the individual and seasonal variations were small in this study. Our results provide useful information in implementing conservation strategies of this faunal group and a framework for other species or similar studies.     

Among‐colony synchrony in the survival of Common Guillemots Uria aalge reflects shared wintering areas

Spatiotemporal variation in survival may be an important driver of multi‐population dynamics in many wild animal species, yet few scientific studies have addressed this issue, primarily due to a lack of sufficiently comprehensive and detailed datasets. Synchrony in survival rates among different, often distant, subpopulations appears to be common, caused by spatially correlated environmental conditions or by movement of animals from different sites such that their ranges overlap. Many seabird populations are effectively isolated during the breeding season because colonies are widely separated, but over the winter, birds disperse widely and there may be much mixing between different populations. The non‐breeding season is also the period of main mortality for seabirds. Using mark–recapture and ring‐recovery data, we tested for spatial, temporal and age‐related correlations in survival of Common Guillemots Uria aalge among three widely separated Scottish colonies that have varying overlap in their overwintering distributions. Survival was highly correlated over time for colonies/age‐classes sharing wintering areas and, except in 2004, was essentially uncorrelated for those with separate wintering areas. These results strongly suggest that one or more aspects of the winter environment are responsible for spatiotemporal variation in survival of British Guillemots, and provide insight into the factors driving large‐scale population dynamics of the species.     

Improved methods for estimating abundance and related demographic parameters from mark‐resight data

Over the past decade, there has been much methodological development for the estimation of abundance and related demographic parameters using mark‐resight data. Often viewed as a less‐invasive and less‐expensive alternative to conventional mark recapture, mark‐resight methods jointly model marked individual encounters and counts of unmarked individuals, and recent extensions accommodate common challenges associated with imperfect detection. When these challenges include both individual detection heterogeneity and an unknown marked sample size, we demonstrate several deficiencies associated with the most widely used mark‐resight models currently implemented in the popular capture‐recapture freeware Program MARK. We propose a composite likelihood solution based on a zero‐inflated Poisson log‐normal model and find the performance of this new estimator to be superior in terms of bias and confidence interval coverage. Under Pollock's robust design, we also extend the models to accommodate individual‐level random effects across sampling occasions as a potentially more realistic alternative to models that assume independence. As a motivating example, we revisit a previous analysis of mark‐resight data for the New Zealand Robin (Petroica australis) and compare inferences from the proposed estimators. For the all‐too‐common situation where encounter rates are low, individual detection heterogeneity is non‐negligible, and the number of marked individuals is unknown, we recommend practitioners use the zero‐inflated Poisson log‐normal mark‐resight estimator as now implemented in Program MARK.     

Optimising control of invasive crayfish using life‐history information

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Combining capture–recapture data and pedigree information to assess heritability of demographic parameters in the wild

Quantitative genetic analyses have been increasingly used to estimate the genetic basis of life‐history traits in natural populations. Imperfect detection of individuals is inherent to studies that monitor populations in the wild, yet it is seldom accounted for by quantitative genetic studies, perhaps leading to flawed inference. To facilitate the inclusion of imperfect detection of individuals in such studies, we develop a method to estimate additive genetic variance and assess heritability for binary traits such as survival, using capture–recapture (CR) data. Our approach combines mixed‐effects CR models with a threshold model to incorporate discrete data in a standard ‘animal model’ approach. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and present the first estimate of heritability of adult survival in the wild. In agreement with the prediction that selection should deplete additive genetic variance in fitness, we found that survival had low heritability. Because the detection process is incorporated, capture–recapture animal models (CRAM) provide unbiased quantitative genetics analyses of longitudinal data collected in the wild.