种间作用对物种分布模拟的影响及建模方法

物种分布模型(SDMs)通过量化物种分布和环境变量之间的关系,并将其外推到未知的景观单元,模拟、预测地理空间中生物的潜在分布,是生态学、生物地理学、保护生物学等研究领域的重要工具.然而,目前物种分布模型主要采用非生物因素作为预测变量,由于数据量化和建模表达困难,生物因素特别是种间作用在物种分布模型中常被忽略,将种间作用...     

Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

Aims

Species distributions are hypothesized to be underlain by a complex association of processes that span multiple spatial scales including biotic interactions, dispersal limitation, fine‐scale resource gradients and climate. Species disequilibrium with climate may reflect the effects of non‐climatic processes on species distributions, yet distribution models have rarely directly considered non‐climatic processes. Here, we use a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM) to investigate the influence of non‐climatic factors on species co‐occurrence patterns and to directly quantify the relative influences of climate and alternative processes that may generate correlated responses in species distributions, such as species interactions, on tree co‐occurrence patterns.

Location

US Rocky Mountains.

Methods

We apply a Bayesian JSDM to simultaneously model the co‐occurrence patterns of ten dominant tree species across the Rocky Mountains, and evaluate climatic and residual correlations from the fitted model to determine the relative contribution of each component to observed co‐occurrence patterns. We also evaluate predictions generated from the fitted model relative to a single‐species modelling approach.

Results

For most species, correlation due to climate covariates exceeded residual correlation, indicating an overriding influence of broad‐scale climate on co‐occurrence patterns. Accounting for covariance among species did not significantly improve predictions relative to a single‐species approach, providing limited evidence for a strong independent influence of species interactions on distribution patterns.

Conclusions

Overall, our findings indicate that climate is an important driver of regional biodiversity patterns and that interactions between dominant tree species contribute little to explain species co‐occurrence patterns among Rocky Mountain trees.     

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.     

东北地区5个物种潜在栖息地变化与优化保护规划

气候变化广泛影响着物种多样性及其分布变迁。优化模型模拟结果,获取气候变化影响下的优先保护区域将为制定应对气候变化的物种保护政策或行动提供理论依据,提升保护绩效。选取东北地区五种代表性动物,包括黑熊(Ursus thibetanus)、驼鹿(Alces alces)、水獭(Lutra lutra)、紫貂(Martes zibellina)及黑嘴松鸡(Tetrao parvirostris);结合最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟在不同RCP情景下未来3个年代(2030s,2050s,2070s)的物种潜在栖息地。根据九个常用气候模式的评价结果,获取东北地区合适的气候模式,了解气候变化对物种潜在栖息地的影响,同时开展物种保护规划,识别保护空缺,为应对气候变化、保持生物多样性提供支持。结果显示,在气候变化背景下物种潜在栖息地面积整体呈现下降趋势,但不同气候模式之间存在差异;评价结果推荐CCSM4、Nor ESM1-M、Had GEM2-AO及GFDL-CM3气候模式,推荐在东北地区使用以上气候模式进行物种未来潜在分布的研究。5个物种潜在栖息地平均面积变化率分别为-62.16%,-73.93%,-78.46%(2030s,2050s,2070s)。综合5个重点保护物种的保护优先区,大兴安岭的呼中、汗马与额尔古纳国家级自然保护区,延边地区的天佛指山、老爷岭东北虎、珲春东北虎与汪清原麝国家级自然保护区,长白山国家级自然保护区是气候变化下物种保护的热点区域。     

Detecting outliers in species distribution data

Aim

Species distribution data play a pivotal role in the study of ecology, evolution, biogeography and biodiversity conservation. Although large amounts of location data are available and accessible from public databases, data quality remains problematic. Of the potential sources of error, positional errors are critical for spatial applications, particularly where these errors place observations beyond the environmental or geographical range of species. These outliers need to be identified, checked and removed to improve data quality and minimize the impact on subsequent analyses. Manually checking all species records within large multispecies datasets is prohibitively costly. This work investigates algorithms that may assist in the efficient vetting of outliers in such large datasets.

Location

We used real, spatially explicit environmental data derived from the western part of Victoria, Australia, and simulated species distributions within this same region.

Methods

By adapting species distribution modelling (SDM), we developed a pseudo‐SDM approach for detecting outliers in species distribution data, which was implemented with random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) resulting in two new methods: RF_pdSDM and SVM_pdSDM. Using virtual species, we compared eight existing multivariate outlier detection methods with these two new methods under various conditions.

Results

The two new methods based on the pseudo‐SDM approach had higher true skill statistic (TSS) values than other approaches, with TSS values always exceeding 0. More than 70% of the true outliers in datasets for species with a low and intermediate prevalence can be identified by checking 10% of the data points with the highest outlier scores.

Main conclusions

Pseudo‐SDM‐based methods were more effective than other outlier detection methods. However, this outlier detection procedure can only be considered as a screening tool, and putative outliers must be examined by experts to determine whether they are actual errors or important records within an inherently biased set of data.     

The future representativeness of Madagascar's protected area network in the face of climate change

With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.     

云南西双版纳的淡水蟹类 (软甲纲:十足目:束腹蟹科:溪蟹科)

本文记述西双版纳６种淡水蟹类的种类组成及分布,其中包括二新种的描述。     

Monitoring and modeling the invasion of the fast spreading alien Senecio inaequidens DC. in an alpine region

We modeled the distribution of the South African alien Senecio inaequidens DC. in the Aosta Valley, Western Italian Alps, using data extracted from the Regional floristic database and from an intensive field survey carried out in years 2009–2010. The aims of the work were (1) to evaluate whether the species is in the introduction, colonization, or establishment stage of invasion, (2) to detect the environmental factors that drive the invasion process, and (3) to highlight the potential range of distribution of the alien species. The modeling framework was a stepwise generalized linear model (GLM), using gridded presence/absence data and environmental predictors such as topography, climate, land use, and anthropogenic and natural disturbances. GLM were fit both with and without an additional independent variable to take into account current dispersal limitations. S. inaequidens displayed a very fast spread in the Aosta Valley in the years 1990–2010. The species was positively associated with roads and rivers, southern slopes, and negatively with elevation. However, it was found at an elevation of 1600 m, showing the ability to reach higher elevations than those observed for other invasive alien species, and confirming to be pre-adapted to mountain conditions. The difference between the species distribution models, with and without dispersal constraints, suggested that the availability of seed sources still limits the potential distribution of the species, rather than the environmental variables, and that the realized regional niche differs to a great extent from the equilibrium niche. When limitations to the seed source cease (i.e., in the establishment stage), the species will likely invade large areas that are currently characterized by pastures and grasslands with native species of high agricultural importance. The invasion of S. inaequidens should therefore be considered a serious threat, due to its potential to invade mountain regions, and in particular to colonize habitats used for grazing and forage, thus leading to a high risk for cattle and human health. We discuss the relevance of the results both concerning communication with the public and to support local eradication and control activities. The inclusion of S. inaequidens in the “black list” of the regional law for the conservation of alpine flora (L.R. 45/2009) will help to transfer the information and support invasion control, in particular at medium elevations.     

How to deal with ground truthing affected by human‐induced habitat change?: Identifying high‐quality habitats for the Critically Endangered Red Siskin

Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine SDM accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin (Spinus cucullatus), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of SDM inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground‐truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (RF) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960–2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km²) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground‐truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean EVI, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km², in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity‐friendly agri‐ and silviculture programs.     

中国野生凤仙花属物种多样性和地理分布数据集

凤仙花属(Impatiens)植物主要分布于旧世界的热带和亚热带山区, 对生长环境要求极度严苛, 深入分析其地理分布格局与特征, 可为种质资源调查和利用提供理论依据。本研究通过系统检索文献资料, 更新了该属植物物种名录, 整合其地理分布、海拔、特有性等信息, 建立了中国野生凤仙花属植物地理分布数据库。截至2022年3月, 中国共记载野生凤仙花属植物352种(包含18变种1亚种1变型), 其中中国特有种273种。除上海市外, 中国其他各省级行政区均有野生凤仙花属植物分布, 其中云南省分布有165种, 其次为四川省(119种)和西藏自治区(69种)。县级尺度上, 贡山独龙族怒族自治县和腾冲市以51种并列物种丰富度第一, 其次是福贡县(42种)。中国野生凤仙花属的分布总体呈现以热带、亚热带为中心向高纬度和高海拔区域扩散的格局, 广义横断山区、西藏南部地区、滇黔桂喀斯特区域、长江中下游等地为凤仙花属植物集中分布的热点地区。     

中国野生杜鹃花属植物名录与地理分布数据集

杜鹃花属(Rhododendron)植物分布广泛, 生存环境多样, 类群结构复杂, 深入分析其地理分布格局与特征, 可为种质资源保育和利用等提供依据。本文基于大量基础数据及文献资料, 更新了中国陆域分布的野生杜鹃花属植物物种名录, 统计了其物种多样性、组成成分等信息, 建立了中国野生杜鹃花属植物地理分布数据库, 旨在为种质资源调查及引种应用研究提供参考。截至2021年7月, 共记载7亚属720种(包括114变种、45亚种和2变型), 其中中国特有种450种。除宁夏和新疆干旱荒漠地带外, 中国其他各省区均有野生杜鹃花属分布, 其中云南省分布393种, 是省级尺度物种丰富度及特有性最高的区域; 其次为四川省(278种)及西藏自治区(271种)。县级尺度贡山独龙族怒族自治县与察隅县以134种并列物种丰富度第一, 其次是德钦县128种。     

Modelling potential biotope composition on a regional scale revealed that climate variables are stronger drivers than soil variables

Aim

Environmental conditions define the suitability of an area for biotopes, and any area can be suitable for several biotopes. However, most previous studies modelled the distribution of single biotopes ignoring the potential co-occurrence of biotopes in one area, which limits the usefulness of such models for conservation and restoration planning. In this study, we described the potential biotope composition of an area in response to environmental conditions.

Location

Bavaria, Federal State of Germany.

Methods

Based on the Bavarian biotope mapping data, we modelled the distribution of 29 terrestrial biotopes based on six climate variables and six chemical and four physical soil properties using the species distribution modelling algorithm Maxent.

Results

For most biotopes, we found that climate variables were more important than soil variables for the biotope distribution and that the area of the predicted biotope distribution was larger than the observed distribution. The potential biotope composition illustrated that while 8% of the area in Bavaria was not sufficiently suitable for any analysed biotope, 92% of the modelled area in Bavaria was suitable for at least one biotope, 84% for two and 77% for at least three biotopes. The difference in suitability between the most suitable biotopes in composition was minor. Further, over one-quarter of the modelled area was suitable for 6–8 different biotopes.

Main Conclusions

Our study showed that considering a composition of potentially suitable biotopes in a raster cell, instead of only the most suitable biotope, provides valuable information to identify conservation priorities and restoration opportunities.     

“世界100种恶性外来入侵物种”在我国大陆的入侵现状

[目的] 明确世界自然保护联盟公布的“世界100种恶性外来入侵物种”在我国大陆发生分布现状,为我国制定外来入侵物种管控对象和分级管理对策提供依据。[方法] 基于在线数据库系统、文献报道以及外来入侵物种本底调查结果,采用分类统计方法,对物种的分类地位、原产地、在我国的入侵状态及其所在的生态系统进行分析。[结果] 世界100种恶性外来入侵物种已有82种在我国发生分布,包括本地种33种、外来入侵种32种、外来非入侵种16种,以及未明确入侵状态1种。其中,32种外来入侵种包括陆生无脊椎动物8种、哺乳动物2种、鱼类2种、两栖动物1种、爬行动物1种、水生无脊椎动物2种、陆生植物9种、水生植物4种、真菌1种、卵菌1种和病毒1种。以上物种主要分布在东南沿海地区和西南地区,而较少分布在西北地区和东北地区;约75%物种分布在农田、城镇、森林和湿地4类生态系统。[结论] 建议外来入侵物种管理部门重点关注尚未在国内发生分布的18种潜在外来入侵物种,并列入国家外来入侵物种相关管理对象,严防其传入与扩散;严密监控国内已发生且具有潜在危险的外来物种,防止其向可能入侵的生态系统边缘扩散;继续对在国内已发生的外来入侵种实施区域性分级控制管理措施。     

Diversity and distribution of reptiles in Romania

The reptile fauna of Romania comprises 23 species, out of which 12 species reach here the limit of their geographic range. We compiled and updated a national database of the reptile species occurrences from a variety of sources including our own field surveys, personal communication from specialists, museum collections and the scientific literature. The occurrence records were georeferenced and stored in a geodatabase for additional analysis of their spatial patterns. The spatial analysis revealed a biased sampling effort concentrated in various protected areas, and deficient in the vast agricultural areas of the southern part of Romania. The patterns of species richness showed a higher number of species in the warmer and drier regions, and a relatively low number of species in the rest of the country. Our database provides a starting point for further analyses, and represents a reliable tool for drafting conservation plans.     

群落构建的中性理论和生态位理论

物种共存和生物多样性维持一直是生态学研究的中心论题。基于物种生态位分化的群落构建理论已经发展了近一个世纪, 但我们对群落构建和生物多样性维持的机理仍然不清楚。近年来, 群落中性理论以其简约性和预测能力成为群落生态学研究的焦点, 但由于其“物种在生态功能上等价”的假设与大量研究结果相悖, 同时对自然群落结构的准确预测也只限于少数的生态系统, 因而饱受质疑。如今, 越来越多的生态学家认为群落构建的生态位理论与中性理论之争的最终归宿应该是二者的整合。 在本文中, 我们在简要回顾生态位理论和群落中性理论发展的基础上, 分析二者之间的主要分歧和互补性, 试图梳理二者整合的途径。我们认为, 尽管中性理论的发展极大地丰富了群落构建理论, 但二者的整合尚处于初级阶段; 群落构建零模型假说、中性—生态位连续体假说、随机生态位假说等都不失为有价值的尝试, 今后需要在其他类型的生态系统中进行实验验证, 以更好地理解确定性过程和随机过程在决定群落构建和生物多样性维持中的作用。     

The second Southern African Bird Atlas Project: Causes and consequences of geographical sampling bias

Using the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP2) as a case study, we examine the possible determinants of spatial bias in volunteer sampling effort and how well such biased data represent environmental gradients across the area covered by the atlas. For each province in South Africa, we used generalized linear mixed models to determine the combination of variables that explain spatial variation in sampling effort (number of visits per 5′ × 5′ grid cell, or “pentad”). The explanatory variables were distance to major road and exceptional birding locations or “sampling hubs,” percentage cover of protected, urban, and cultivated area, and the climate variables mean annual precipitation, winter temperatures, and summer temperatures. Further, we used the climate variables and plant biomes to define subsets of pentads representing environmental zones across South Africa, Lesotho, and Swaziland. For each environmental zone, we quantified sampling intensity, and we assessed sampling completeness with species accumulation curves fitted to the asymptotic Lomolino model. Sampling effort was highest close to sampling hubs, major roads, urban areas, and protected areas. Cultivated area and the climate variables were less important. Further, environmental zones were not evenly represented by current data and the zones varied in the amount of sampling required representing the species that are present. SABAP2 volunteers' preferences in birding locations cause spatial bias in the dataset that should be taken into account when analyzing these data. Large parts of South Africa remain underrepresented, which may restrict the kind of ecological questions that may be addressed. However, sampling bias may be improved by directing volunteers toward undersampled regions while taking into account volunteer preferences.     

Diversity and distribution of amphibians in Romania

Nineteen species of amphibians inhabit Romania, 9 of which reach their range limit on this territory. Based on published occurrence reports, museum collections and our own data we compiled a national database of amphibian occurrences. We georeferenced 26779 amphibian species occurrences, and performed an analysis of their spatial patterns, checking for hotspots and patterns of species richness. The results of spatial statistic analyses supported the idea of a biased sampling for Romania, with clear hotspots of increased sampling efforts. The sampling effort is biased towards species with high detectability, protected areas, and large cities. Future sampling efforts should be focused mostly on species with a high rarity score in order to accurately map their range. Our results are an important step in achieving the long-term goals of increasing the efficiency of conservation efforts and evaluating the species range shifts under climate change scenarios.