Slow life history and rapid extreme flood: demographic mechanisms and their consequences on population viability in a threatened amphibian

相似文献   

Post‐fragmentation population structure in a cooperative breeding Afrotropical cloud forest bird: emergence of a source‐sink population network

The impact of demographic parameters on the genetic population structure and viability of organisms is a long‐standing issue in the study of fragmented populations. Demographic and genetic tools are now readily available to estimate census and effective population sizes and migration and gene flow rates with increasing precision. Here we analysed the demography and genetic population structure over a recent 15‐year time span in five remnant populations of Cabanis's greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a cooperative breeding bird in a severely fragmented cloud forest habitat. Contrary to our expectation, genetic admixture and effective population sizes slightly increased, rather than decreased between our two sampling periods. In spite of small effective population sizes in tiny forest remnants, none of the populations showed evidence of a recent population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian modelling, however, suggested that differentiation of the populations coincided at least partially with an episode of habitat fragmentation. The ratio of meta‐N_e to meta‐N_c was relatively low for birds, which is expected for cooperative breeding species, while N_e/N_c ratios strongly varied among local populations. While the overall trend of increasing population sizes and genetic admixture may suggest that Cabanis's greenbuls increasingly cope with fragmentation, the time period over which these trends were documented is rather short relative to the average longevity of tropical species. Furthermore, the critically low N_c in the small forest remnants keep the species prone to demographic and environmental stochasticity, and it remains open if, and to what extent, its cooperative breeding behaviour helps to buffer such effects.     

Improving our understanding of demographic monitoring: avian breeding productivity in a tropical dry forest

The ratio of juvenile to adult birds in mist‐net samples is used to monitor avian productivity, but whether it is a “true” estimate of per capita productivity or an index proportional to productivity depends on whether capture probability is not age‐dependent (true estimate) or age difference in capture probability is consistent among years (index). Better understanding of the processes affecting age‐ and year‐specific capture probabilities is needed to advance the application of constant‐effort mist‐netting for monitoring and conservation, particularly in many tropical settings where capture rates are often low. We ranked members of the avian community by capture frequencies, determined if temporary emigration influenced the availability of birds to be captured, and assessed the distribution of birds relative to mist‐nets and the parity between capture‐based productivity estimates and number of fledglings in nest plots in a tropical dry forest in Puerto Rico in 2009 and 2010. Few captures characterized the community of 25 resident species and, when estimable, capture probabilities were low, particularly for juveniles (typically < 0.1). Negative trends in capture probability, temporary emigration, and the distribution of birds suggest that avoidance of mist‐nets influenced capture rates in our study. Increasing mist‐net coverage or moving mist‐nets between sampling periods could increase capture rates. The number of fledglings observed in nest plots (25 ha/plot) did not correlate well with capture‐derived estimates (20 ha/net stations), suggesting the presence of immigrants or failure to find all nests. Our results suggest that indices of breeding productivity from mist‐netting data may track temporal changes in productivity, but such data likely do not reflect “true” productivity in most cases unless age‐specific differences in capture probability are incorporated into estimates. Pilot studies should be conducted to evaluate capture rates and the spatial extent sampled by mist‐nets to improve sampling design and inferences before informing decisions.     

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean

Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate‐associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture‐recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

Incubation capacity contributes to constraints on maximal clutch size in Brent Geese Branta bernicla nigricans

Lack ( 1967 ) proposed that clutch size in species with precocial young was determined by nutrients available to females at the time of egg formation; since then others have suggested that regulation of clutch size in these species may be more complex. We tested whether incubation limitation contributes to ultimate constraints on maximal clutch size in Black Brent Geese (Black Brant) Branta bernicla nigricans. Specifically, we investigated the relationship between clutch size and duration of the nesting period (i.e. days between nest initiation and the first pipped egg) and the number of goslings leaving the nest. We used experimental clutch manipulations to assess these questions because they allowed us to create clutches that were larger than the typical maximum of five eggs in this species. We found that the per‐capita probability of egg success (i.e. the probability an egg hatched and the gosling left the nest) declined from 0.81 for two‐egg clutches to 0.50 for seven‐egg clutches. As a result of declining egg success, clutches containing more than five eggs produced, at best, only marginally more offspring. Manipulating clutch size at the beginning of incubation had no effect on the duration of the nesting period, but the nesting period increased with the number of eggs a female laid naturally prior to manipulation, from 25.4 days (95% CI 25.1–25.7) for three‐egg clutches to 27.7 days (95% CI 27.3–28.1) for six‐egg clutches. This delay in hatching may result in reduced gosling growth rates due to declining forage quality during the brood rearing period. Our results suggest that the strong right truncation of Brent clutches, which results in few clutches greater than five, is partially explained by the declining incubation capacity of females as clutch size increases and a delay in hatching with each additional egg laid. As a result, females laying clutches with more than five eggs would typically gain little fitness benefit above that associated with a five‐egg clutch.     

Surface‐water availability governs survival of an amphibian in arid mountain streams

相似文献   

Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic‐breeding bird

Anthropogenic climate disruption, including temperature and precipitation regime shifts, has been linked to animal population declines since the mid‐20th century. However, some species, such as Arctic‐breeding geese, have thrived during this period. An increased understanding of how climate disruption might link to demographic rates in thriving species is an important perspective in quantifying the impact of anthropogenic climate disruption on the global state of nature. The Greenland barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis) population has increased tenfold in abundance since the mid‐20th century. A concurrent weather regime shift towards warmer, wetter conditions occurred throughout its range in Greenland (breeding), Ireland and Scotland (wintering) and Iceland (spring and autumn staging). The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between weather and demographic rates of Greenland barnacle geese to discern the role of climate shifts in the population trend. We quantified the relationship between temperature and precipitation and Greenland barnacle goose survival and productivity over a 50 year period from 1968 to 2018. We detected significant positive relationships between warmer, wetter conditions on the Icelandic spring staging grounds and survival. We also detected contrasting relationships between warmer, wetter conditions during autumn staging and survival and productivity, with warm, dry conditions being the most favourable for productivity. Survival increased in the latter part of the study period, supporting the possibility that spring weather regime shifts contributed to the increasing population trend. This may be related to improved forage resources, as warming air temperatures have been shown to improve survival rates in several other Arctic and northern terrestrial herbivorous species through indirect bottom‐up effects on forage availability.     

Differential adult survival at close seabird colonies: The importance of spatial foraging segregation and bycatch risk during the breeding season

Marine megafauna, including seabirds, are critically affected by fisheries bycatch. However, bycatch risk may differ on temporal and spatial scales due to the uneven distribution and effort of fleets operating different fishing gear, and to focal species distribution and foraging behavior. Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea is a long‐lived seabird that experiences high bycatch rates in longline fisheries and strong population‐level impacts due to this type of anthropogenic mortality. Analyzing a long‐term dataset on individual monitoring, we compared adult survival (by means of multi‐event capture–recapture models) among three close predator‐free Mediterranean colonies of the species. Unexpectedly for a long‐lived organism, adult survival varied among colonies. We explored potential causes of this differential survival by (1) measuring egg volume as a proxy of food availability and parental condition; (2) building a specific longline bycatch risk map for the species; and (3) assessing the distribution patterns of breeding birds from the three study colonies via GPS tracking. Egg volume was very similar between colonies over time, suggesting that environmental variability related to habitat foraging suitability was not the main cause of differential survival. On the other hand, differences in foraging movements among individuals from the three colonies expose them to differential mortality risk, which likely influenced the observed differences in adult survival. The overlap of information obtained by the generation of specific bycatch risk maps, the quantification of population demographic parameters, and the foraging spatial analysis should inform managers about differential sensitivity to the anthropogenic impact at mesoscale level and guide decisions depending on the spatial configuration of local populations. The approach would apply and should be considered in any species where foraging distribution is colony‐specific and mortality risk varies spatially.     

Effectiveness of mass trapping in the reduction of Monochamus galloprovincialis Olivier (Col.: Cerambycidae) populations

Monochamus galloprovincialis Olivier beetles vector the causal agent of pine wilt disease (PWD), nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner and Bührer) Nickle, in Europe. Traps and attractants have been optimized for the capture of M. galloprovincialis, increasing the possibility of developing methods of lowering its population in PWD‐affected areas with the aim of either eradicating the disease or containing the spread of it. To evaluate the effectiveness of such mass‐trapping campaigns, two sets of experiments were carried out in 2010 and 2013. The release of 353 laboratory‐reared beetles in the experimental area of 2010 facilitated the evaluation of capture–mark–recapture (CMR) procedures in the calculation of population abundance estimates using the POPAN formulation of the Jolly–Seber model, a prerequisite for the assessment of mass trapping. Abundance estimates derived from best‐fitting parameters fell within one standard error of the real figures, proving the method appropriate. In 2013, four trap densities were tested in six 36 ha plots. To evaluate the removed proportions, the local beetle population was estimated in a contiguous 260 ha study area. A superpopulation of 21 319 individuals could be calculated from the CMR data, corresponding to a rough density of 82 individuals per hectare. Evaluated trapping densities removed 4.66%, 20.50%, 33.33% and 59.80% of M. galloprovincialis population at 0.02, 0.11, 0.25 and 0.44 traps/ha, respectively, thus the estimated 95% removal would occur at 0.82 traps/ha. These results suggest that substantial reduction of M. galloprovincialis abundances might be achieved via mass trapping and that this represents a very promising management method for the containment or eventual eradication of B. xylophilus at the areas affected by the PWD.     

Haldane's rule revisited: do hybrid females have a shorter lifespan? Survival of hybrids in a recent contact zone between two large gull species

Haldane's rule predicts that particularly high fitness reduction should affect the heterogametic sex of interspecific hybrids. Despite the fact that hybridization is widespread in birds, survival of hybrid individuals is rarely addressed in studies of avian hybrid zones, possibly because of methodological constraints. Here, having applied capture–mark–recapture models to an extensive, 19‐year‐long data set on individually marked birds, we estimate annual survival rates of hybrid individuals in the hybrid zone between herring (Larus argentatus) and Caspian (Larus cachinnans) gulls. In both parental species, males have a slightly higher survival rate than females (model‐weighted mean ± SE: herring gull males 0.88 ± 0.01, females 0.87 ± 0.01, Caspian gull males 0.88 ± 0.01, females 0.87 ± 0.01). Hybrid males do not survive for a shorter time than nonhybrid ones (0.88 ± 0.01), whereas hybrid females have the lowest survival rate among all groups of individuals (0.83 ± 0.03). This translates to a shorter adult (reproductive) lifespan (on average by 1.7–1.8 years, i.e. ca 25%) compared with nonhybrid females. We conclude that, in line with Haldane's rule, the lower survival rate of female hybrids may contribute to selection against hybrids in this hybrid zone.     

Toward reliable population density estimates of partially marked populations using spatially explicit mark–resight methods

相似文献   

Heterozygosity–fitness correlations in a wild mammal population: accounting for parental and environmental effects

HFCs (heterozygosity–fitness correlations) measure the direct relationship between an individual's genetic diversity and fitness. The effects of parental heterozygosity and the environment on HFCs are currently under‐researched. We investigated these in a high‐density U.K. population of European badgers (Meles meles), using a multimodel capture–mark–recapture framework and 35 microsatellite loci. We detected interannual variation in first‐year, but not adult, survival probability. Adult females had higher annual survival probabilities than adult males. Cubs with more heterozygous fathers had higher first‐year survival, but only in wetter summers; there was no relationship with individual or maternal heterozygosity. Moist soil conditions enhance badger food supply (earthworms), improving survival. In dryer years, higher indiscriminate mortality rates appear to mask differential heterozygosity‐related survival effects. This paternal interaction was significant in the most supported model; however, the model‐averaged estimate had a relative importance of 0.50 and overlapped zero slightly. First‐year survival probabilities were not correlated with the inbreeding coefficient (f); however, small sample sizes limited the power to detect inbreeding depression. Correlations between individual heterozygosity and inbreeding were weak, in line with published meta‐analyses showing that HFCs tend to be weak. We found support for general rather than local heterozygosity effects on first‐year survival probability, and g2 indicated that our markers had power to detect inbreeding. We emphasize the importance of assessing how environmental stressors can influence the magnitude and direction of HFCs and of considering how parental genetic diversity can affect fitness‐related traits, which could play an important role in the evolution of mate choice.     

Does seasonality drive spatial patterns in demography? Variation in survival in African reed warblers Acrocephalus baeticatus across southern Africa does not reflect global patterns

Among birds, northern temperate species generally have larger clutches, shorter development periods and lower adult survival than similarly‐sized southern and tropical species. Even though this global pattern is well accepted, the driving mechanism is still not fully understood. The main theories are founded on the differing environmental seasonality of these zones (higher seasonality in the North). These patterns arise in cross‐species comparisons, but we hypothesized that the same patterns should arise among populations within a species if different types of seasonality select for different life histories. Few studies have examined this. We estimated survival of an azonal habitat specialist, the African reed warbler, across the environmentally diverse African subcontinent, and related survival to latitude and to the seasonality of the different environments of their breeding habitats. Data (1998–2010) collected through a public ringing scheme were analyzed with hierarchical capture‐mark‐recapture models to determine resident adult survival and its spatial variance across sixteen vegetation units spread across four biomes. The models were defined as state‐space multi‐state models to account for transience and implemented in a Bayesian framework. We did not find a latitudinal trend in survival or a clear link between seasonality and survival. Spatial variation in survival was substantial across the sixteen sites (spatial standard deviation of the logit mean survival: 0.70, 95% credible interval (CRI): 0.33–1.27). Mean site survival ranged from 0.49 (95% CRI: 0.18–0.80) to 0.83 (95% CRI: 0.62–0.97) with an overall mean of 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.47–0.85). A hierarchical modeling approach enabled us to estimate spatial variation in survival of the African reed warbler across the African subcontinent from sparse data. Although we could not confirm the global pattern of higher survival in less seasonal environments, our findings from a poorly studied region contribute to the study of life‐history strategies.     

Population size estimates based on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample

Estimating population density as precise as possible is a key premise for managing wild animal species. This can be a challenging task if the species in question is elusive or, due to high quantities, hard to count. We present a new, mathematically derived estimator for population size, where the estimation is based solely on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample of an ungulate population. By use of molecular markers like microsatellites, the number of these parent–offspring pairs can be determined. The study's aim was to clarify whether a classical capture–mark–recapture (CMR) method can be adapted or extended by this genetic element to a genetic‐based capture–mark–recapture (g‐CMR). We numerically validate the presented estimator (and corresponding variance estimates) and provide the R‐code for the computation of estimates of population size including confidence intervals. The presented method provides a new framework to precisely estimate population size based on the genetic analysis of a one‐time subsample. This is especially of value where traditional CMR methods or other DNA‐based (fecal or hair) capture–recapture methods fail or are too difficult to apply. The DNA source used is basically irrelevant, but in the present case the sampling of an annual hunting bag is to serve as data basis. In addition to the high quality of muscle tissue samples, hunting bags provide additional and essential information for wildlife management practices, such as age, weight, or sex. In cases where a g‐CMR method is ecologically and hunting‐wise appropriate, it enables a wide applicability, also through its species‐independent use.     

Modeling association among demographic parameters in analysis of open population capture-recapture data

We present a hierarchical extension of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for open population capture-recapture data. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture. The parameter set includes capture probabilities, survival rates, and birth rates. The survival rates and birth rates are treated as a random sample from a bivariate distribution, thus the model explicitly incorporates correlation in these demographic rates. A key feature of the model is that the likelihood function, which includes a CJS model factor, is expressed entirely in terms of identifiable parameters; losses on capture can be factored out of the model. Since the computational complexity of classical likelihood methods is prohibitive, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian analysis. We describe an efficient candidate-generation scheme for Metropolis-Hastings sampling of CJS models and extensions. The procedure is illustrated using mark-recapture data for the moth Gonodontis bidentata.     

Behavioral modifications lead to disparate demographic consequences in two sympatric species

Life‐history theory suggests species that typically have a large number of offspring and high adult mortality may make decisions that benefit offspring survival in exchange for increased adult risks. Such behavioral adaptations are essential to understanding how demographic performance is linked to habitat selection during this important life‐history stage. Though studies have illustrated negative fitness consequences to attendant adults or potential fitness benefits to associated offspring because of adaptive habitat selection during brood rearing, equivocal relationships could arise if both aspects of this reproductive trade‐off are not assessed simultaneously. To better understand how adaptive habitat selection during brood rearing influences demographics, we studied the brood survival, attendant parental survival, and space use of two sympatric ground‐nesting bird species, the northern bobwhite (hereafter: “bobwhite”; Colinus virgininanus) and scaled quail (Callipepla squamata). During the 2013–2014 breeding seasons, we estimated habitat suitability across two grains (2 m and 30 m) for both species and determined how adult space use of these areas influenced individual chick survival and parental risk. We found the proportion of a brood's home range containing highly suitable areas significantly increased bobwhite chick survival (β = 0.02, SE = 0.006). Additionally, adult weekly survival for bobwhite was greater for individuals not actively brooding offspring (0.9716, SE = 0.0054) as compared to brooding adults (0.8928, SE = 0.0006). Conversely, brood habitat suitability did not influence scaled quail chick survival during our study, nor did we detect a survival cost for adults that were actively brooding offspring. Our research illustrates the importance of understanding life‐history strategies and how they might influence relationships between adaptive habitat selection and demographic parameters.