Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long‐lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long‐lived amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture–recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context‐dependent variation in demographic processes.     

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature‐limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry.     

Survival of adult mountain goats in Washington: effects of season,translocation, snow,and precipitation

Elucidating patterns of adult survival rates is key to understanding population dynamics of large mammals. We used data from 7 separate studies of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) conducted from 2002 through 2022 in western Washington, USA, to quantify survival rates in relation to key biotic and abiotic factors using known fate models implemented in program MARK. We monitored 324 (206 females, 118 males) radio-marked mountain goats for 178,339 days. A substantial number of mountain goats in our sample (n = 217) had been translocated from the Olympic Peninsula to the Cascade Mountains on Washington's mainland, providing an added opportunity to examine translocation effects. We adopted a sequential modeling approach, first building a set of models to examine fundamental survival patterns by age, sex, season, study area, and translocated status. We used variables retained from the top model in a second set to investigate relationships between annual survival and local weather covariates hypothesized by previous studies to influence mountain goat behavior, habitat selection, and vital rates. Survival among adult females in spring was slightly lower than other sex and age categories, but seasonal patterns were otherwise not evident. There were significant negative relationships between survival and winter snow depth, an index of the previous year's drought, and mean daily temperature during the previous May, and a positive relationship with previous year's precipitation. Weather effects were similar among resident and translocated animals. By the end of the study period, weather effects had evidently contributed to reductions in mountain goat survival to a level low enough that population stability was unlikely. Because the frequency of droughts and warm spring temperatures are expected to increase with climate change, mountain goat populations in Washington will likely be increasingly challenged as the atmosphere warms.     

Seasonal morphotypes of Drosophila suzukii differ in key life‐history traits during and after a prolonged period of cold exposure

Seasonal polyphenism in Drosophila suzukii manifests itself in two discrete adult morphotypes, the “winter morph” (WM) and the “summer morph” (SM). These morphotypes are known to differ in thermal stress tolerance, and they co‐occur during parts of the year. In this study, we aimed to estimate morph‐specific survival and fecundity in laboratory settings simulating field conditions. We specifically analyzed how WM and SM D. suzukii differed in mortality and reproduction during and after a period of cold exposure resembling winter and spring conditions in temperate climates. The median lifespan of D. suzukii varied around 5 months for the WM flies and around 7 months for the SM flies. WM flies showed higher survival during the cold‐exposure period compared with SM flies, and especially SM males suffered high mortality under these conditions. In contrast, SM flies had lower mortality rates than WM flies under spring‐like conditions. Intriguingly, reproductive status (virgin or mated) did not impact the fly survival, either during the cold exposure or during spring‐like conditions. Even though the reproductive potential of WM flies was greatly reduced compared with SM flies, both WM and SM females that had mated before the cold exposure were able to continuously produce viable offspring for 5 months under spring‐like conditions. Finally, the fertility of the overwintered WM males was almost zero, while the surviving SM males did not suffer reduced fertility. Combined with other studies on D. suzukii monitoring and overwintering behavior, these results suggest that overwintered flies of both morphotypes could live long enough to infest the first commercial crops of the season. The high mortality of SM males and the low fertility of WM males after prolonged cold exposure also highlight the necessity for females to store sperm over winter to be able to start reproducing early in the following spring.     

Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long‐term mark‐recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12–17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4–6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.     

Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish

Climate change affects seasonal weather patterns, but little is known about the relative importance of seasonal weather patterns on animal population vital rates. Even when such information exists, data are typically only available from intensive fieldwork (e.g., mark–recapture studies) at a limited spatial extent. Here, we investigated effects of seasonal air temperature and precipitation (fall, winter, and spring) on survival and recruitment of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) at a broad spatial scale using a novel stage‐structured population model. The data were a 15‐year record of brook trout abundance from 72 sites distributed across a 170‐km‐long mountain range in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Population vital rates responded differently to weather and site‐specific conditions. Specifically, young‐of‐year survival was most strongly affected by spring temperature, adult survival by elevation and per‐capita recruitment by winter precipitation. Low fall precipitation and high winter precipitation, the latter of which is predicted to increase under climate change for the study region, had the strongest negative effects on trout populations. Simulations show that trout abundance could be greatly reduced under constant high winter precipitation, consistent with the expected effects of gravel‐scouring flows on eggs and newly hatched individuals. However, high‐elevation sites would be less vulnerable to local extinction because they supported higher adult survival. Furthermore, the majority of brook trout populations are projected to persist if high winter precipitation occurs only intermittently (≤3 of 5 years) due to density‐dependent recruitment. Variable drivers of vital rates should be commonly found in animal populations characterized by ontogenetic changes in habitat, and such stage‐structured effects may increase population persistence to changing climate by not affecting all life stages simultaneously. Yet, our results also demonstrate that weather patterns during seemingly less consequential seasons (e.g., winter precipitation) can have major impacts on animal population dynamics.     

High nest failure but better nestling quality for early breeders in an alpine population of Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe)

Climate change is leading to the advancement of spring conditions, resulting in an earlier snowmelt and green-up, with highest rates of change in highly seasonal environments, including alpine habitats. Migratory birds breeding at high elevations need to time their arrival and lay dates accurately with this advancement, but also with the annually variable spring conditions at their breeding sites, to maximize nest survival probabilities and reproductive output. Nest survival probability and mean nestling mass were analysed in relation to lay date and habitat conditions in an alpine population of the migratory Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe collected over six consecutive breeding seasons in the Western Italian Alps. This open grassland species showed the lowest nest survival probability in years with an early onset of spring conditions. Within-season, nest survival was highest when breeding late, at lower elevations, and when grass cover and grass height were higher. Both across- and within-season, severe weather conditions may indirectly lead to higher early season nest failure rates by increasing predation risk. By contrast, mean nestling mass, and thus the quality of the fledglings, was lower when breeding late. This might be driven by a mismatch with the peak in food abundance. Breeding early is thus generally advantageous in terms of chick quality in our high-elevation population, but reproductive success is limited by the risk of nest failure that is higher in early springs and early in the season. This trade-off between breeding early and late may thus allow Northern Wheatears to maximize fitness under highly variable spring conditions. However, climate change may cause disruption to this trade-off, and shifts in phenology could become a threat for migratory alpine birds that might not be able to keep track of advancing spring conditions.     

Long-term dynamics of fecal corticosterone in male great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus Licht.): effects of environment and social demography

We examined the relationship among seasonal characteristics of climate, food, and population demography (social structure) and fecal corticosterone (CORT) concentrations over 6 yr in adult males of an arid-adapted species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus Licht., Gerbillidae, Rodentia), as a measure of chronic stress in high, low, and recovering population densities. Results showed yearly differences in the seasonal means of CORT, with the highest concentrations in the year of the highest population density. Analysis of year-specific relationships revealed a positive correlation between mean CORT and total precipitation in January and February and a negative correlation with precipitation in March. In the beginning of spring, when gerbils were in maximum reproductive effort, CORT correlated positively with the saturation of burrow systems and with the number of adult females with an adult male. A linear stepwise regression of CORT in individual males in spring seasons of all 6 yr combined after removal of year effects revealed that CORT depended positively on the number of females associated with a single male but negatively on the abundance of annual herbs. Disappearance of adult males was not related to CORT in most cases. We found no correlation between overall mortality from season to season and mean CORT in either spring (March-May) or fall. In fact, we found a highly negative correlation between mean CORT and the proportion of disappeared males at the beginning of spring. Only at the high population density when cases of probable catastrophic mortality of all adults in the group were excluded was CORT of individual males related positively to their disappearance during the summer drought. Our results suggest that desert rodents with irregular population fluctuations are more sensitive to suppression by external factors than by density-dependent mortality mediated by stress. The favorable feeding and climatic conditions may have compensated for density-dependent increases of CORT and the negative effects it might have had on survival.     

Birth seasonality and calf mortality in a large population of Asian elephants

In seasonal environments, many species concentrate their reproduction in the time of year most likely to maximize offspring survival. Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) inhabit regions with seasonal climate, but females can still experience 16‐week reproductive cycles throughout the year. Whether female elephants nevertheless concentrate births on periods with maximum offspring survival prospects remains unknown. We investigated the seasonal timing of births, and effects of birth month on short‐ and long‐term mortality of Asian elephants, using a unique demographic data set of 2350 semicaptive, longitudinally monitored logging elephants from Myanmar experiencing seasonal variation in both workload and environmental conditions. Our results show variation in birth rate across the year, with 41% of births occurring between December and March. This corresponds to the cool, dry period and the beginning of the hot season, and to conceptions occurring during the resting, nonlogging period between February and June. Giving birth during the peak December to March period improves offspring survival, as the odds for survival between age 1 and 5 years are 44% higher for individuals born during the high birth rate period than those conceived during working months. Our results suggest that seasonal conditions, most likely maternal workload and/or climate, limit conception rate and calf survival in this population through effects on maternal stress, estrus cycles, or access to mates. This has implications for improving the birth rate and infant survival in captive populations by limiting workload of females of reproductive age. As working populations are currently unsustainable and supplemented through the capture of wild elephants, it is imperative to the conservation of Asian elephants to understand and alleviate the effects of seasonal conditions on vital rates in the working population in order to reduce the pressure for further capture from the wild.     

Variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism in the most widely ranging lizard: testing the effects of reproductive mode and climate

Reproductive mode, ancestry, and climate are hypothesized to determine body size variation in reptiles but their effects have rarely been estimated simultaneously, especially at the intraspecific level. The common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) occupies almost the entire Northern Eurasia and includes viviparous and oviparous lineages, thus representing an excellent model for such studies. Using body length data for >10,000 individuals from 72 geographically distinct populations over the species' range, we analyzed how sex‐specific adult body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is associated with reproductive mode, lineage identity, and several climatic variables. Variation in male size was low and poorly explained by our predictors. In contrast, female size and SSD varied considerably, demonstrating significant effects of reproductive mode and particularly seasonality. Populations of the western oviparous lineage (northern Spain, south‐western France) exhibited a smaller female size and less female‐biased SSD than those of the western viviparous (France to Eastern Europe) and the eastern viviparous (Eastern Europe to Far East) lineages; this pattern persisted even after controlling for climatic effects. The phenotypic response to seasonality was complex: across the lineages, as well as within the eastern viviparous lineage, female size and SSD increase with increasing seasonality, whereas the western viviparous lineage followed the opposing trends. Altogether, viviparous populations seem to follow a saw‐tooth geographic cline, which might reflect the nonmonotonic relationship of body size at maturity in females with the length of activity season. This relationship is predicted to arise in perennial ectotherms as a response to environmental constraints caused by seasonality of growth and reproduction. The SSD allometry followed the converse of Rensch's rule, a rare pattern for amniotes. Our results provide the first evidence of opposing body size—climate relationships in intraspecific units.     

Environmental Influences on Mass Dynamics of the Cotton Rat (Sigmodon hispidus) Thymus Gland

The influence of season on thymus gland mass was examined relative to captivity, gender, and age in 921 cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus) from free-ranging and laboratory populations. Age-related involution of the thymus gland was evident in free-ranging males and females and captive females. A distinct seasonal cycle in thymus mass dynamics was apparent among adult cotton rats. Mass of the thymus gland was greatest from late fall to early winter before declining 2-4 fold during spring. Thymus gland mass remained low through spring and summer in adult cotton rats when reproductive activity was maximum. No seasonal cycle in thymus mass was apparent among juveniles. Possible involvement of sex hormones in regulating thymus size is discussed.     

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe

The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was ~10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions.     

Patterns of spatio-temporal variation in the survival rates of a viviparous lizard: the interacting effects of sex,reproductive trade-offs,aridity, and human-induced disturbance

Examination of the spatial and temporal variation in survival rates provides insight on how the action of natural selection varies among populations of single species. In this study, we used mark-recapture data from seven populations of the viviparous lizard Sceloporus grammicus in Central Mexico and a multi-model inference framework to examine interpopulation variation in the survival of adult males and females. We aimed to analyze the potential effects of aridity, human-induced disturbance, and reproductive costs on the survival rates of these lizards. For females in particular, we also searched for a negative relationship between litter size (adjusted for female size) and female survival. Our results demonstrate seasonal changes in survival for males and females. In three out of our seven study sites female survival decreased during the birthing season. In contrast, male survival did not appear to decrease during the mating season. We found an interaction between site-specific aridity and reproductive season affecting female survival. A decrease in female survival during the birthing season was observed in relatively arid sites. In one of these arid sites we found a negative effect of size-adjusted litter size on female survival: females producing more offspring than those expected for their size were more likely to die. This result represents evidence of a physiological trade-off for gravid females occurring in at least one of the studied populations. Interpopulation variation in the degree of human-induced disturbance could not explain the observed patterns of spatial variation in survival rates. Our results demonstrate wide variation in sex-specific survival patterns of this viviparous lizard and provide evidence that negative associations between reproduction and survival are highly dependent on the local environmental conditions.     

Beneficial effect of hot spring bathing on stress levels in Japanese macaques

The ability of animals to survive dramatic climates depends on their physiology, morphology and behaviour, but is often influenced by the configuration of their habitat. Along with autonomic responses, thermoregulatory behaviours, including postural adjustments, social aggregation, and use of trees for shelter, help individuals maintain homeostasis across climate variations. Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata) are the world’s most northerly species of nonhuman primates and have adapted to extremely cold environments. Given that thermoregulatory stress can increase glucocorticoid concentrations in primates, we hypothesized that by using an available hot spring, Japanese macaques could gain protection against weather-induced cold stress during winter. We studied 12 adult female Japanese macaques living in Jigokudani Monkey Park, Japan, during the spring birth season (April to June) and winter mating season (October to December). We collected faecal samples for determination of faecal glucocorticoid (fGC) metabolite concentrations by enzyme immunoassay, as well as behavioural data to determine time spent in the hot springs, dominance rank, aggression rates, and affiliative behaviours. We used nonparametric statistics to examine seasonal changes in hot spring bathing, and the relationship between rank and air temperature on hot spring bathing. We used general linear mixed-effect models to examine factors impacting hormone concentrations. We found that Japanese macaques use hot spring bathing for thermoregulation during the winter. In the studied troop, the single hot spring is a restricted resource favoured by dominant females. High social rank had both costs and benefits: dominant females sustained high fGC levels, which were associated with high aggression rates in winter, but benefited by priority of access to the hot spring, which was associated with low fGC concentrations and therefore might help reduce energy expenditure and subsequent body heat loss. This unique habit of hot spring bathing by Japanese macaques illustrates how behavioural flexibility can help counter cold climate stress, with likely implications for reproduction and survival.     

Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.     

VIABILITY SELECTION ON SEASONALLY POLYPHENIC TRAITS: WING MELANIN PATTERN IN WESTERN WHITE BUTTERFLIES

Wing melanin pattern varies seasonally among generations in many populations of the butterfly Pontia occidentalis, leading to distinctly different wing phenotypes during spring and summer generations. Estimates of directional selection on wing pattern can therefore quantify the imperfection of this phenotypically plastic (polyphenic) response in generating “optimal” phenotypes for each seasonal generation. Mark-release-recapture (MRR) studies were used to estimate directional selection on six wing traits in a natural population of P. occidentalis during both spring and summer weather conditions. Estimated survival and recapture probabilities varied substantially among the four MRR studies. When differences between males and females were detected, the survival and recapture probabilities were higher for males than for females. Estimated selection coefficients suggested that the direction of selection on one wing trait important for thermoregulation, melanin on the base of the dorsal hindwings (trait hb), fluctuated seasonally; there was evidence of directional selection for increased hb in the spring studies and for decreased hb in the summer studies. Such fluctuating seasonal selection on hb implies that the seasonal polyphenic response may not be sufficient to eliminate selection on this trait; the slope of the reaction-norm mapping hb onto seasonal environmental cues is too shallow, resulting in further selection on the reaction norm. Adaptive evolution of the reaction norm may be constrained by phenotypic and genetic correlations with other wing traits that experience different patterns of selection and by variable weather conditions within seasons and among years.     

Seasonal variation of mortality,detectability, and body condition in a population of the adder (Vipera berus)

We analyzed seasonal variation in mortality rates in adult males and females of the European adder (Vipera berus), using data collected during a 13‐year capture–recapture study (2005–2017) in a large population. We concurrently obtained quantitative information on the seasonal variation in the detectability and body condition of adders. Our results show strong seasonality in body condition, encounter, and capture rates of adult adders, and these patterns differ markedly between sexes and between breeding and nonbreeding females. Seasonal variation in mortality rates was however virtually nonexistent in males and moderately low in both breeding and nonbreeding females. In addition, we found no evidence for among‐year differences in the seasonal mortality schedules of males and females. During periods of intensive basking, both males and pregnant females are highly visible for humans, but are not subject to strong natural mortality. This low susceptibility to predation is presumably induced by various factors, including the limitation of overt exposure to short periods of time and specific microhabitats, the dorsal coloration pattern that provides cryptic protection and possibly also an aposematic warning signal, and presumed seasonal differences in the foraging behavior and food requirements of natural predators. Our data provide some evidence that female adders, but not males, are relatively vulnerable to predation during the seasonal migrations between the hibernation and feeding habitats. Mortality in the females was not much elevated during their breeding years, but was notably highest in the spring of the ensuing nonbreeding year. After giving birth, reproductive females are extremely emaciated and have a weakened general condition. They then run the risk of dying from starvation either before, during, or after hibernation. The higher mortality after giving birth, that is sustained over a period of ca. 9 months, should be considered as an indirect and delayed survival cost of reproduction.     

Global climate patterns explain range-wide synchronicity in survival of a migratory seabird

To predict the impact of climate change over the whole species distribution range, comparison of adult survival variations over large spatial scale is of primary concern for long-lived species populations that are particularly susceptible to decline if adult survival is reduced. In this study, we estimated and compared adult survival rates between 1989 and 1997 of six populations of Cory's shearwater ( Calonectris diomedea ) spread across 4600 km using capture–recapture models. We showed that mean annual adult survival rates are different among populations along a longitudinal gradient and between sexes. Variation in adult survival is synchronized among populations, with three distinct groups: (1) both females and males of Corsica, Tremiti, and Selvagem (annual survival range 0.88–0.96); (2) both females and males of Frioul and females from Crete (0.82–0.92); and (3) both females and males of Malta and males from Crete (0.74–0.88). The total variation accounted for by the common pattern of variation is on average 71%, suggesting strong environmental forcing. At least 61% of the variation in survival is explained by the Southern Oscillation Index fluctuations. We suggested that Atlantic hurricanes and storms during La Niña years may increase adult mortality for Cory's shearwater during winter months. For long-lived seabird species, variation in adult survival is buffered against environmental variability, although extreme climate conditions such as storms significantly affect adult survival. The effect of climate at large spatial scales on adult survival during the nonbreeding period may lead to synchronization of variation in adult survival over the species' range and has large effects on the meta-population trends. One can thus worry about the future of such long-lived seabirds species under the predictions of higher frequency of extreme large-scale climatic events.     

Climate change and annual survival in a temperate passerine: partitioning seasonal effects and predicting future patterns

Predicting climate change impacts on population size requires detailed understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates, such as survival. This knowledge is frequently unavailable, even in well‐studied taxa such as birds. In temperate regions, most research into climatic effects on annual survival in resident passerines has focussed on winter temperature. Few studies have investigated potential precipitation effects and most assume little impact of breeding season weather. We use a 19‐year capture–mark–recapture study to provide a rare empirical analysis of how variation in temperature and precipitation throughout the entire year influences adult annual survival in a temperate passerine, the long‐tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus. We use model averaging to predict longer‐term historical survival rates, and future survival until the year 2100. Our model explains 73% of the interannual variation in survival rates. In contrast to current theory, we find a strong precipitation effect and no effect of variation in winter weather on adult annual survival, which is correlated most strongly to breeding season (spring) weather. Warm springs and autumns increase annual survival, but wet springs reduce survival and alter the form of the relationship between spring temperature and annual survival. There is little evidence for density dependence across the observed variation in population size. Using our model to estimate historical survival rates indicates that recent spring warming has led to an upward trend in survival rates, which has probably contributed to the observed long‐term increase in the UK long‐tailed tit population. Future climate change is predicted to further increase survival, under a broad range of carbon emissions scenarios and probabilistic climate change outcomes, even if precipitation increases substantially. We demonstrate the importance of considering weather over the entire annual cycle, and of considering precipitation and temperature in combination, in order to develop robust predictive models of demographic responses to climate change. Synthesis Prediction of climate change impacts demands understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates. In our 19‐year mark‐recapture study of long‐tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus, weather explained 73% of the inter‐annual variation in adult survival; warm springs and autumns increased survival, wet springs reduced survival, but winter weather had little effect. Robust predictions thus require consideration of the entire annual cycle and should not focus solely on temperature. Unexpectedly, survival appeared not to be strongly density‐dependent, so we use historical climate data to infer that recent climate change has enhanced survival over the four decades in which the UK long‐tailed tit population has more than doubled. Furthermore, survival rates in this species are predicted to further increase under a wide range of future climate scenarios.     

Five-year population dynamics of plateau pikas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ochotona curzoniae</Emphasis>) on the east of Tibetan Plateau

Small mammals mediate trajectories of vegetation change where both their density and the growing season are moderated by temperature and precipitation. On the Tibetan Plateau, the cold and arid climate particularly restricts the plant growing season, but the role of mammals’ density and climate in moderating small mammal populations remains unknown. We conducted a 5-year mark-recapture study of plateau pikas (Ochotona curzoniae) to test the relative importance of density-dependent and climatic factors on survival and reproduction. Plateau pikas had seasonal fluctuations in density and survival. During the warm summer season (May–August), monthly survival was density-independent, ranging from 74.7 to 90.4%, but varied with sex and age, increased with precipitation and NDVI, and decreased with temperature. During the cold season (September–April), monthly survival was around 98%. Density and precipitation had negative effects on reproductive success for the first and second litters of the year, and temperature showed consistently positive effects on reproductive success for both litters of the year. Pika density and climate regulated together the population dynamics of plateau pikas. These data on the relationships between density and climatic factors on survival and reproduction are critical for the management and conservation of plateau pikas on the Tibetan Plateau.