Comparative breeding performance of Marsh Harriers Circus aeruginosus along a gradient of land‐use intensification and implications for population management

Assessing variation in breeding performance in relation to habitat characteristics may provide insights into predicting the consequences of land‐use change on species ecology and population dynamics. We compared four Marsh Harrier Circus aeruginosus populations subject to similar environmental conditions, but which differed in habitat composition, ranging from natural habitats to intensively cultivated areas. Using a 6‐year dataset, we characterized breeding habitat and diet in these four study sites, and analysed breeding performance in relation to this gradient of land‐use intensification. There was minimal variation in breeding performance between study years but consistent variation between study sites. Unexpectedly, Marsh Harriers breeding in intensively cultivated habitats had higher reproductive success than those breeding in more natural habitats, which, however, hosted higher breeding densities, so overall net population productivity (fledglings per unit area) was similar across sites. This resulted from combined effects of density‐dependence and different predation rates between study sites. The colonization of intensive farmland habitats may not necessarily impact negatively on population sustainability when breeding success and population density are traded against each other. However, our findings should not mask longer‐term conservation issues for populations breeding in these intensively managed areas, and further studies should assess potential long‐term negative effects of occupancy of human‐altered habitat.     

Ecological traps and species distribution models: a challenge for prioritizing areas of conservation importance

Species distribution models analyse how species use different types of habitats. Their spatial predictions are often used to prioritize areas for conservation. Individuals may, however, prefer settling in habitat types of low quality compared to other available habitats. This ecological trap phenomenon is usually studied in a small number of habitat patches and consequences at the landscape level are largely unknown. It is therefore often unclear whether the spatial pattern of habitat use is aligned with the behavioural decisions made by the individuals during habitat selection or reflects actual variation in the quality of different habitat types. As species distribution models analyse the pattern of occurrence in different habitats, there is a conservation interest in examining what their predictions mean in terms of habitat quality when ecological traps are operating. Previous work in Belgium showed that red-backed shrikes Lanius collurio are more attracted to newly available clear-cut habitat in plantation forests than to the traditionally used farmland habitat. We developed models with shrike distribution data and compared their predictions with spatial variation in shrike reproductive performance used as a proxy for habitat quality. Models accurately predicted shrike distribution and identified the preferred clear-cut patches as the most frequently used habitat, but reproductive performance was lower in clear-cut areas than in farmland. With human-induced rapid environmental changes, organisms may indeed be attracted to low-quality habitats and occupy them at high densities. Consequently, the predictions of statistical models based on occurrence records may not align with variation in significant population parameters for the maintenance of the species. When species expand their range to novel habitats, such models are useful to document the spatial distribution of the organisms, but data on population growth rates are worth collecting before using model predictions to guide the spatial prioritization of conservation actions.     

Disentangling the spatial and temporal causes of decline in a bird population

The difficulties in understanding the underlying reasons of a population decline lie in the typical short duration of field studies, the often too small size already reached by a declining population or the multitude of environmental factors that may influence population trend. In this difficult context, useful demographic tools such as integrated population models (IPM) may help disentangling the main reasons for a population decline. To understand why a hoopoe Upupa epops population has declined, we followed a three step model analysis. We built an IPM structured with respect to habitat quality (approximated by the expected availability of mole crickets, the main prey in our population) and estimated the contributions of habitat‐specific demographic rates to population variation and decline. We quantified how much each demographic rate has decreased and investigated whether habitat quality influenced this decline. We tested how much weather conditions and research activities contributed to the decrease in the different demographic rates. The decline of the hoopoe population was mainly explained by a decrease in first‐year apparent survival and a reduced number of fledglings produced, particularly in habitats of high quality. Since a majority of pairs bred in habitats of the highest quality, the decrease in the production of locally recruited yearlings in high‐quality habitat was the main driver of the population decline despite a homogeneous drop of recruitment across habitats. Overall, the explanatory variables we tested only accounted for 19% of the decrease in the population growth rate. Among these variables, the effects of spring temperature (49% of the explained variance) contributed more to population decline than spring precipitation (36%) and research activities (maternal capture delay, 15%). This study shows the power of IPMs for identifying the vital rates involved in population declines and thus paves the way for targeted conservation and management actions.     

Relative contributions of local and regional factors to species richness and total density of butterflies and moths in semi-natural grasslands

Metapopulation theory predicts that species richness and total population density of habitat specialists increase with increasing area and regional connectivity of the habitat. To test these predictions, we examined the relative contributions of habitat patch area, connectivity of the regional habitat network and local habitat quality to species richness and total density of butterflies and day-active moths inhabiting semi-natural grasslands. We studied butterflies and moths in 48 replicate landscapes situated in southwest Finland, including a focal patch and the surrounding network of other semi-natural grasslands within a radius of 1.5 km from the focal patch. By applying the method of hierarchical partitioning, which can distinguish between independent and joint contributions of individual explanatory variables, we observed that variables of the local habitat quality (e.g. mean vegetation height and nectar plant abundance) generally showed the highest independent effect on species richness and total density of butterflies and moths. Habitat area did not show a significant independent contribution to species richness and total density of butterflies and moths. The effect of habitat connectivity was observed only for total density of the declining butterflies and moths. These observations indicate that the local habitat quality is of foremost importance in explaining variation in species richness and total density of butterflies and moths. In addition, declining butterflies and moths have larger populations in well-connected networks of semi-natural grasslands. Our results suggest that, while it is crucial to maintain high-quality habitats by management, with limited resources it would be appropriate to concentrate grassland management and restoration to areas with well-connected grassland networks in which the declining species currently have their strongest populations. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

太湖流域宜兴片河流生境质量评价

建立包含河道生境、河岸生境和滨岸带生境3方面共10项的河流生境质量评价指标体系,对太湖流域宜兴片42个样点进行生境评价及空间差异比较,分析不同土地利用类型下河流生境各参数的差异性,探讨河流生境质量指数与富营养化综合指数的相关关系。结果表明:河流生境质量指数分值介于29～79,31.0%样点生境质量处于较差和很差等级,57.1%样点为一般等级,表明整体上生境退化明显;南部丘陵山区河流的生境质量状况好于广大的平原河网区;不同土地利用类型下河流生境质量差异显著,林地区域的生境质量明显好于耕地和建设用地;河流生境质量指数与富营养化综合指数显著负相关,说明水质状况对河流生境质量具有较大贡献。     

Estimating the per‐capita contribution of habitats and pathways in a migratory network: a modelling approach

Every year, migratory species undertake seasonal movements along different pathways between discrete regions and habitats. The ability to assess the relative demographic contributions of these different habitats and pathways to the species’ overall population dynamics is critical for understanding the ecology of migratory species, and also has practical applications for management and conservation. Metrics for assessing habitat contributions have been well‐developed for metapopulations, but an equivalent metric is not currently available for migratory populations. Here, we develop a framework for estimating the demographic contributions of the discrete habitats and pathways used by migratory species throughout the annual cycle by estimating the per capita contribution of cohorts using these locations. Our framework accounts for seasonal movements between multiple breeding and non‐breeding habitats and for both resident and migratory cohorts. We illustrate our framework using a hypothetical migratory network of four habitats, which allows us to better understand how variations in habitat quality affect per capita contributions. Results indicate that per capita contributions for any habitat or pathway are dependent on habitat‐specific survival probabilities in all other areas used as part of the migratory circuit, and that contribution metrics are spatially linked (e.g. reduced survival in one habitat also decreases the contribution metric for other habitats). Our framework expands existing theory on the dynamics of spatiotemporally structured populations by developing a generalized approach to estimate the habitat‐ and pathway‐specific contributions of species migrating between multiple breeding and multiple non‐breeding habitats for a range of life histories or migratory strategies. Most importantly, it provides a means of prioritizing conservation efforts towards those migratory pathways and habitats that are most critical for the population viability of migratory species.     

Dispersal of a carabid beetle in farmland is driven by habitat‐specific motility and preference at habitat interfaces

Carabid beetles are common predators of pest insects and weed seeds in agricultural systems. Understanding their dispersal across farmland is important for designing farms and landscapes that support pest and weed biological control. Little is known, however, about the effect of farmland habitat discontinuities on dispersal behaviour and the resulting redistribution of these beetles. We released 1,985 well‐fed and 1,680 food‐deprived individuals of the predatory carabid beetle Pterostichus melanarius (Illiger) (Coleoptera: Carabidae) on a farm in Wageningen, The Netherlands. We recaptured 23.6% of those beetles over a period of 23 days in 2010. The farmland comprised agricultural fields with various crop species and tillage, separated by strips of perennial vegetation. We developed discrete Fokker‐Planck diffusion models to describe dispersal based on motility (m² day^?1) and preferential behaviour at habitat interfaces. We used model selection and Akaike’s information criterion to determine whether movement patterns were driven by variation in motility between habitats, preferential behaviour at habitat interfaces, or both. Model selection revealed differences in motility among habitats and gave strong support for preferential behaviour at habitat interfaces. Behaviour at interfaces between crop and perennial vegetation was asymmetric, with beetles preferentially moving towards the crop. Furthermore, beetles had lower motility in perennial strips than in arable fields. Also between arable habitats movement was asymmetric, with beetles preferentially moving towards the habitat in which motility was lowest. Neither crop type nor tillage explained differences in motility between crop habitats. Recapture data representing dispersal patterns of beetles were best described by a model that accounted for differences in motility between farmland habitats and preferential behaviour at habitat interfaces. Motility in farmland and behaviour at interfaces can also be estimated for other organisms and farmland habitats to support design of farmland conducive to natural pest suppression. Landscape design for early recruitment of carabids into arable fields should take into account the quantity and quality of resource habitats in the landscape, their proximity to crop fields, movement rates, and the possibility of movement responses at interfaces between landscape elements.     

Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird

Background

To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use) types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands) displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log λ_s: −0.332, −0.429, −0.168, respectively), that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log λ_s: −0.056, +0.081, −0.059). Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE).

Conclusions/Significance

Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands.     

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long‐term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source‐sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat‐rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source‐sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems.     

Interspecific differences in population trends of Spanish birds are related to habitat and climatic preferences

Aim Animal monitoring programmes have allowed analyses of population trends, most of which now comment on the possible effect of global climate change. However, the relationship between the interspecific variation in population trends and species traits, such as habitat preferences, niche breadth or distribution patterns, has received little attention, in spite of its usefulness in the construction of ecological generalizations. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine whether there are characteristics shared among species with upwards or downwards trends, and (2) to assess whether population changes agree with what could be expected under global warming (a decrease in species typical of cooler environments). Location The Spanish part of the Iberian Peninsula (c. 500,000 km²) in the south‐western part of the Mediterranean Basin. Methods We modelled recent breeding population changes (1996–2004), in areas without apparent land use changes, for 57 common passerine birds with species‐specific ecological and distributional patterns as explanatory variables. Results One‐half of these species have shown a generalized pattern towards the increase of their populations, while only one‐tenth showed a significant decrease. One half (54%) of the interspecific variability in yearly population trends is explained considering species‐specific traits. Species showing more marked increases preferred wooded habitats, were habitat generalists and occupied warmer and wetter areas, while moderate decreases were found for open country habitats in drier areas. Main conclusions The coherent pattern in population trends we found disagrees with the proposed detrimental effect of global warming on bird populations of western Europe, which is expected to be more intense in bird species inhabiting cooler areas and habitats. Such a pattern suggests that factors other than the increase in temperature may be brought to discussions on global change as relevant components to explain recent changes in biodiversity.     

Changes in habitat selection patterns of the gray partridge Perdix perdix in relation to agricultural landscape dynamics over the past two decades

相似文献   

Stream flow alone does not predict population structure of diving beetles across complex tropical landscapes

Recent theoretical advances have hypothesized a central role of habitat persistence on population genetic structure and resulting biodiversity patterns of freshwater organisms. Here, we address the hypothesis that lotic species, or lineages adapted to comparably geologically stable running water habitats (streams and their marginal habitats), have high levels of endemicity and phylogeographic structure due to the persistent nature of their habitat. We use a nextRAD DNA sequencing approach to investigate the population structure and phylogeography of a putatively widespread New Guinean species of diving beetle, Philaccolilus ameliae (Dytiscidae). We find that P. ameliae is a complex of morphologically cryptic, but geographically and genetically well‐differentiated clades. The pattern of population connectivity is consistent with theoretical predictions associated with stable lotic habitats. However, in two clades, we find a more complex pattern of low population differentiation, revealing dispersal across rugged mountains and watersheds of New Guinea up to 430 km apart. These results, while surprising, were also consistent with the original formulation of the habitat template concept by Southwood, involving lineage‐idiosyncratic evolution in response to abiotic factors. In our system, low population differentiation might reflect a young species in a phase of range expansion utilizing vast available habitat. We suggest that predictions of life history variation resulting from the dichotomy between lotic and lentic organisms require more attention to habitat characterization and microhabitat choice. Our results also underpin the necessity to study fine‐scale processes but at a larger geographical scale, as compared to solely documenting macroecological patterns, to understand ecological drivers of regional biodiversity. Comprehensive sampling especially of tropical lineages in complex and threatened environments such as New Guinea remains a critical challenge.     

近40年东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量及其生境变化评估

生物多样性是生态平衡维持和生态过程与功能实现的基础,东北地区是我国乃至全球生物多样性最为丰富的地区之一。为研究和探讨东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量与生境变化之间的关系,利用物种调查数据和生境遥感观测数据,以地球生命力指数、生态系统面积和破碎度等指示性指标,综合评估了近40年东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量及其生境变化。结果表明:1970—2010年,东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量下降了近70.1%,森林脊椎动物种群数量减少了近80.9%,草原和荒漠生态系统脊椎动物种群数量增加了近180.9%。1980—2010年,湿地物种种群数量减少了近75.7%。1980—2015年期间,农业和城镇建设用地增幅分别达到25.2%和32.3%,不断挤占和蚕食着自然生态空间,致使自然生境面积不断减少,减幅约为8.0%。自然生境景观破碎化程度总体呈现加重趋势,尤其是森林生境,破碎化指数增加约42.7%。但是,2005年之后,自然生境景观破碎化程度加重趋势趋缓,与2005年之后脊椎动物种群数量减少幅度减缓趋势一致。森林砍伐、人口增长、城镇化、交通建设等造成的自然生态系统破碎度增加和栖息地质量下降对大型兽类影响比较显著。     

Designing mosaic landscapes for Black Grouse Tetrao tetrix using multi‐scaled models

With increasing pressures on land for human use, it is important to identify the habitat requirements of key species, not just in terms of a correlation with a given habitat feature, but also the relationship between species presence and its coverage, proximity to other habitat types, and importance at different spatial scales. We used maximum entropy to estimate the optimal proportions of 18 habitat types, plus elevation and habitat richness associated with the presence of leks of Black Grouse Tetrao tetrix within an 800‐km² study area in Perthshire, Scotland. We repeated the analysis at several radii (0.2–3 km) to assess how the importance of different habitats changed with proximity to lek and scale. We then examined habitat features or combinations of features that were associated with large leks or positive lek growth. Models at all radii had satisfactory predictive power. Using response curves from maxent , we constructed ideal habitat mixes for leks at each radius. At the 2‐km radius, suitability was highest with around 20% each of three moorland types and open/mixed forestry, whereas close to leks (0.2 km), higher proportions of grouse moor and lower proportions of closed‐canopy woodland were optimal. The relationship between habitat and lek size or direction of lek growth was complex, indicating that a landscape containing large or productive leks can be the result of more than one combination of habitats. This demonstrates a degree of flexibility in designing landscapes for Black Grouse conservation, so landowners can prioritize combinations of habitats that are the most practical and/or economical, while still serving the requirements of the target species.     

Island biogeography of temporary wetland carabid beetle communities

Aim The study tests if island biogeography is applicable to invertebrate communities of habitat islands in the agricultural landscape that are not fragments of formerly larger habitats. Location Thirty temporary wetlands in the agricultural landscape of northeast Germany. Methods The composition and species richness of carabid beetle communities was analysed. Habitat area, isolation, the density of temporary wetlands in the landscape, land‐use intensity and the maximum duration of flooding were recorded as independent variables. Overall species richness and wetland species richness were studied in independent regression analyses. The community composition was analysed by means of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). A partial CCA was used to analyse the effect of the distance to the edge of the field after removing impacts of other independent variables. Results The area of the habitats and various measures of isolation (mean distances = 81–240 m) did not influence species richness or wetland species richness. The community composition was mainly determined by the land‐use intensity, habitat area did not have significant effects, and the distance to the edge of the field was the only effective isolation parameter. Short‐winged species were more often affected by the distance to the edge of the field than full‐winged species. Main conclusion There is evidence that the distances between the wetlands do not provide an effective barrier to the species dispersal and, therefore, metapopulation structures including subpopulations of multiple temporary wetlands might counteract local area effects on subpopulations. Short‐winged species, however, might be more affected by isolation than full‐winged species. As carabid beetle community structure in most early successional habitats is similar, these results may be representative of many agricultural landscape habitats. Nature conservancy concepts that aim to increase habitat area and habitat connectivity have successfully been applied to fragmented late‐successional habitats. The present study indicates that such concepts do not necessarily result in higher diversity or larger populations in early successional habitats.     

Time and travelling costs during chick‐rearing in relation to habitat quality in Little Owls Athene noctua

In many bird species, parents adjust their home‐ranges during chick‐rearing to the availability and distribution of food resources, balancing the benefits of energy intake against the costs of travelling. Over recent decades, European agricultural landscapes have changed radically, resulting in the degradation of habitats and reductions in food resources for farmland birds. Lower foraging success and longer foraging trip distances that result from these changes are often assumed to reduce the reproductive performance of parents, although the mechanisms are not well understood. We tested the behavioural response of chick‐rearing Little Owls Athene noctua to variation in habitat diversity in an agricultural landscape. We equipped females with GPS loggers and received adequate range‐use data for 19 individuals (6063–14 439 locations per bird). In habitats dominated by homogeneous cropland habitats, home‐ranges were over 12 ha in size, whereas in highly diverse habitats they were below 2 ha. Large home‐ranges were associated with increased flight activity (117% of that of birds in small home‐ranges) and distances travelled per night (152%), increased duration of foraging trips (169%) covering larger distances (246%), and reduced nest visiting rates (81%). The study therefore provides strong correlative evidence that Little Owls breeding in monotonous farmland habitats expend more time and energy for a lower benefit in terms of feeding rates than do birds in more heterogeneous landscapes. As nestling food supply is the main determinant of chick survival, these results suggest a strong impact of farmland characteristics on local demographic rates. We suggest that preserving and creating islands of high habitat diversity within uniform open agricultural landscapes should be a key target in the conservation of Little Owl populations.     

Adult survival and reproductive rate are linked to habitat preference in territorial,year‐round resident Song Sparrows Melospiza melodia

Individual animal fitness can be strongly influenced by the ability to recognize habitat features which may be beneficial. Many studies focus on the effects of habitat on annual reproductive rate, even though adult survival is typically a greater influence on fitness and population growth in vertebrate species with intermediate to long lifespans. Understanding the effects of preferred habitat on individuals over the annual cycle is therefore necessary to predict its influences on individual fitness. This is particularly true in species that are resident and territorial year‐round in the temperate zone, which may face potential trade‐offs between habitat that maximizes reproduction and that which maximizes non‐breeding season (‘over‐winter’) survival. We used a 37‐year study of Song Sparrows Melospiza melodia residing territorially year‐round on a small island to examine what habitat features influenced adult over‐winter survival, how site‐specific variation in adult survival vs. annual reproductive rate influenced long‐term habitat preference, and if preferred sites on average conferred higher individual fitness. Habitat features such as area of shrub cover and exposure to intertidal coastline predicted adult over‐winter survival independent of individual age or sex, population size, or winter weather. Long‐term habitat preference (measured as occupation rate) was better predicted by site‐specific annual reproductive rate than by expected over‐winter survival, but preferred sites maximized fitness on average over the entire annual cycle,. Although adult over‐winter survival had a greater influence on population growth (λ) than did reproductive rate, the influence of reproductive rate on λ increased in preferred sites because site‐specific variation in reproductive rate was higher than variation in expected over‐winter survival. Because preferred habitats tended to have higher mean site‐specific reproductive and adult survival rates, territorial birds in this population do not appear to experience seasonal trade‐offs in preferred habitat but are predicted to incur substantial fitness costs of settling in less‐preferred sites.     

黄淮平原农业景观鸟类多样性及生境差异

农业景观中的鸟类多样性对生态系统功能和服务的形成与维持具有重要作用。黄淮平原区是我国最重要的农业景观区之一,为探讨区域内农业景观中鸟类多样性特征和不同生境间的差异,在研究区农业景观不同生境中布设样点,调查繁殖期鸟类多样性特征。结果显示:(1)共记录到32科、49属、66种的10044只个体,但优势科属明显;(2)物种丰富度、多样性和均匀度均表现出在沟渠、湖泊生境中较高,农田和村庄生境中相对较低,但物种多度呈现出村庄生境中最高,其次是沟渠和农田生境,湖泊生境中最低;(3)在区系分布上,各生境中均以广布种为主,生态类群上,鸣禽在各生境中均占绝对优势,涉禽和游禽主要分布在沟渠和湖泊生境中,从居留型来看,留鸟是各生境中的主导类群,候鸟、旅鸟和迷鸟比例很低;(4)鸟类群落异质性分析显示,各生境间的相似性总体上较高,表明区域内农业景观中鸟类组成具有较高的重叠性。研究显示农业景观中湖泊和沟渠的存在能有效的提高区域鸟类的丰富度和多样性,而沟渠的存在能有效的提高鸟类个体多度,农田和村庄有助于特定类群多度的增加,因此在未来的区域持续农业景观的构建中一方面要重视自然、半自然非农生境的作用,另一方面也不能忽视不同生物类群对景观异质性响应和对生境特征需求的差异。     

Forest Fragmentation Alters the Population Dynamics of a Late‐successional Tropical Tree

Tropical late‐successional tree species are at high risk of local extinction due to habitat loss and fragmentation. Population‐growth rates in fragmented populations are predicted to decline as a result of reduced fecundity, survival and growth. We examined the demographic effects of habitat fragmentation by comparing the population dynamics of the late‐successional tree Poulsenia armata (Moraceae) in southern Mexico between a continuous forest and several forest fragments using integral projection models (IPMs) during 2010–2012. Forest fragmentation did not lead to differences in population density and even resulted in a higher population‐growth rate (λ) in fragments compared to continuous forests. Habitat fragmentation had drastic effects on the dynamics of P. armata, causing the population structure to shift toward smaller sizes. Fragmented populations experienced a significant decrease in juvenile survival and growth compared to unaltered populations. Adult survival and growth made the greatest relative contributions to λ in both habitat types during 2011–2012. However, the relative importance of juvenile survival and growth to λ was highest in the fragmented forest in 2010–2011. Our Life Table Response Experiment analysis revealed that positive contributions of adult fecundity explained most of the variation of λ between both habitats and annual periods. Finally, P. armata has a relatively slow speed of recovery after disturbances, compromising persistence of fragmented populations. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how forest fragmentation affects plant population dynamics, as done here, will prove essential for the preservation of natural areas.     

On the evolutionary stability of sink populations

The evolution of adaptive behaviours can influence population dynamics. Conversely, population dynamics can affect both the rate and direction of adaptive evolution. This paper examines reasons why sink populations – populations maintained by immigration, preventing local extinction – might persist in the habitat repertoire of a species over evolutionary time-scales. Two such reasons correspond to standard explanations for deviations from an ideal free habitat distribution: organisms may not be free to settle in whichever habitat has the highest potential fitness, and may be constrained by costs, perceptual limitations, or mode of dispersal in the acuity of their habitat selectivity. Here, I argue that a third general reason for persistent sink populations is provided by unstable population dynamics in source habitats. I present a simple model illustrating how use of a sink habitat may be selectively advantageous, when a source population has unstable dynamics (which necessarily reflects temporal variation in local fitnesses). Species with unstable local dynamics in high-quality habitats should be selected to utilize a broader range of habitats than species with stable local dynamics, and in particular in some circumstances should utilize sink habitats. This observation has implications for the direction of niche evolution, and the likelihood of niche conservatism.