中国东部温带植被生长季节的空间外推估计

利用地面植物物候和遥感归一化差值植被指数（NDVI）数据,以及一种物候-遥感外推方法,实现植被生长季节从少数站点到较多站点的空间外推。结果表明：（1）在1982～1993年期间,中国东部温带地区植被生长季节多年平均起讫日期的空间格局与春季和秋季平均气温的空间格局相关显著;（2）在不同纬度带和整个研究区域,植被生长季节结束日期呈显著推迟的趋势,而开始日期则呈不显著提前的趋势,这与欧洲和北美地区植被生长季节开始日期显著提前而结束日期不显著推迟的变化趋势完全不同;（3）北部纬度带的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4～3．6d,全区的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4d,与同期北半球和欧亚大陆植被生长季节延长的趋势数值相近;（4）植被生长季节结束日期的显著推迟与晚春至夏季的区域性降温有关,而植被生长季节开始日期的不显著提前则与晚冬至春季气温趋势的不稳定变化有关;（5）在年际变化方面,植被生长季节开始和结束日期分别与2～4月份平均气温和5～6月份平均气温呈负相关关系。     

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997–2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March–April and October–November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.     

Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China

Using phenological and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 1993 at seven sample stations in temperate eastern China, we calculated the cumulative frequency of leaf unfolding and leaf coloration dates for deciduous species every 5 days throughout the study period. Then, we determined the growing season beginning and end dates by computing times when 50% of the species had undergone leaf unfolding and leaf coloration for each station year. Next, we used these beginning and end dates of the growing season as time markers to determine corresponding threshold NDVI values on NDVI curves for the pixels overlaying phenological stations. Based on a cluster analysis, we determined extrapolation areas for each phenological station in every year, and then implemented the spatial extrapolation of growing season parameters from the seven sample stations to all possible meteorological stations in the study area. Results show that spatial patterns of growing season beginning and end dates correlate significantly with spatial patterns of mean air temperatures in spring and autumn, respectively. Contrasting with results from similar studies in Europe and North America, our study suggests that there is a significant delay in leaf coloration dates, along with a less pronounced advance of leaf unfolding dates in different latitudinal zones and the whole area from 1982 to 1993. The growing season has been extended by 1.4–3.6 days per year in the northern zones and by 1.4 days per year across the entire study area on average. The apparent delay in growing season end dates is associated with regional cooling from late spring to summer, while the insignificant advancement in beginning dates corresponds to inconsistent temperature trend changes from late winter to spring. On an interannual basis, growing season beginning and end dates correlate negatively with mean air temperatures from February to April and from May to June, respectively.     

'SSW to NNE'– North Atlantic Oscillation affects the progress of seasons across Europe

Three European plant phenological network datasets were analysed for latitudinal and longitudinal gradients of nine phenological ‘seasons’ spanning the entire year. The networks were: (1) the historical first European Phenological Network (1882–1941) by Hoffmann & Ihne, (2) the network of the International Phenological Gardens in Europe (1959–1998), founded by Schnelle & Volkert in 1957 and based on cloned plants, and (3) a dataset (1951–1998) that was recently collated during the EU Fifth Framework project POSITIVE, which included network data of seven Central and Eastern European countries. Our study is most likely the first, for over a century, to analyse average onset and year‐to‐year variability of the progress of seasons across a continent. For early, mid, and late spring seasons we found a marked progress of the seasonal onset from SW to NE throughout Europe, more precisely from WSW to ENE in early spring, then from SW to NE and finally from SSW to NNE in late spring, as exhibited by the relationship between latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. The movement of summer was more south to north directed, as the longitudinal gradient (west–east component) strongly declined or was even of opposite sign. Autumn, as shown by leaf colouring dates, arrived from NE to SW. Possible reasons for the differences among the three datasets are discussed. The annual variability of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients of the seasons across Europe was closely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; in years with high NAO in both winter and spring, the west–east component of progress was more pronounced; in summer and autumn, the pattern of the seasons may be more uniform.     

Phenological responses of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ulmus pumila</Emphasis> (Siberian Elm) to climate change in the temperate zone of China

Using Ulmus pumila (Siberian Elm) leaf unfolding and leaf fall phenological data from 46 stations in the temperate zone of China for the period 1986–2005, we detected linear trends in both start and end dates and length of the growing season. Moreover, we defined the optimum length period during which daily mean temperature affects the growing season start and end dates most markedly at each station in order to more precisely and rationally identify responses of the growing season to temperature. On average, the growing season start date advanced significantly at a rate of −4.0 days per decade, whereas the growing season end date was delayed significantly at a rate of 2.2 days per decade and the growing season length was prolonged significantly at a rate of 6.5 days per decade across the temperate zone of China. Thus, the growing season extension was induced mainly by the advancement of the start date. At individual stations, linear trends of the start date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature during the optimum length period, namely, the quicker the spring temperature increased at a station, the quicker the start date advanced. With respect to growing season response to interannual temperature variation, a 1°C increase in spring temperature during the optimum length period may induce an advancement of 2.8 days in the start date of the growing season, whereas a 1°C increase in autumn temperature during the optimum length period may cause a delay of 2.1 days in the end date of the growing season, and a 1°C increase in annual mean temperature may result in a lengthening of the growing season of 9 days across the temperate zone of China. Therefore, the response of the start date to temperature is more sensitive than the response of the end date. At individual stations, the sensitivity of growing season response to temperature depends obviously on local thermal conditions, namely, either the negative response of the start date or the positive response of the end date and growing season length to temperature was stronger at warmer locations than at colder locations. Thus, future regional climate warming may enhance the sensitivity of plant phenological response to temperature, especially in colder regions.     

Spatial and temporal variability of the phenological seasons in Germany from 1951 to 1996

Various indications for shifts in plant and animal phenology resulting from climate change have been observed in Europe. This analysis of phenological seasons in Germany of more than four decades (1951–96) has several major advantages: (i) a wide and dense geographical coverage of data from the phenological network of the German Weather Service, (ii) the 16 phenophases analysed cover the whole annual cycle and, moreover, give a direct estimate of the length of the growing season for four deciduous tree species. After intensive data quality checks, two different methods – linear trend analyses and comparison of averages of subintervals – were applied in order to determine shifts in phenological seasons in the last 46 years. Results from both methods were similar and reveal a strong seasonal variation. There are clear advances in the key indicators of earliest and early spring (?0.18 to ?0.23 d y^?1) and notable advances in the succeeding spring phenophases such as leaf unfolding of deciduous trees (?0.16 to ?0.08 d y^?1). However, phenological changes are less strong during autumn (delayed by + 0.03 to + 0.10 d y^?1 on average). In general, the growing season has been lengthened by up to ?0.2 d y^?1 (mean linear trends) and the mean 1974–96 growing season was up to 5 days longer than in the 1951–73 period. The spatial variability of trends was analysed by statistical means and shown in maps, but these did not reveal any substantial regional differences. Although there is a high spatial variability, trends of phenological phases at single locations are mirrored by subsequent phases, but they are not necessarily identical. Results for changes in the biosphere with such a high resolution with respect to time and space can rarely be obtained by other methods such as analyses of satellite data.     

Forecasting phenology under global warming

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species'' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.     

Climate change and extension of the Ginkgo biloba L. growing season in Japan

To understand the effects of climate change on the growing season of plants in Japan, we conducted trend analysis of phenological phases and examined the relationship between phenology and air temperatures. We used phenological data for Ginkgo biloba L., collected from 1953 to 2000. We defined the beginning and the end of the growing season (BGS and EGS) as the dates of budding and leaf fall, respectively. Changes in the air temperature in the 45 days before the date of BGS affected annual variation in BGS. The annual variation in air temperature over the 85 days before EGS affected the date of EGS. The average annual air temperature in Japan has increased by 1.3°C over the last four decades (1961–2000), and this increase has caused changes in ginkgo phenology. In the last five decades (1953–2000), BGS has occurred approximately 4 days earlier than previously, and EGS has occurred about 8 days later. Consequently, since 1953 the length of the growing season (LGS) has been extended by 12 days. Since around 1970, LGS and air temperatures have shown increasing trends. Although many researchers have stated that phenological events are not affected by the air temperature in the fall, we found high correlations not only between budding dates and air temperatures in spring but also between leaf‐fall dates and air temperatures in autumn. If the mean annual air temperature increases by 1°C, LGS could be extended by 10 days. We also examined the spatial distribution of the rate of LGS extension, but we did not find an obvious relationship between LGS extension and latitude.     

Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems

Plant phenology is strongly controlled by climate and has consequently become one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing climate change. We used a dataset of more than 200 000 records for six phenological events of 29 perennial plant species monitored from 1943 to 2003 for a comprehensive assessment of plant phenological responses to climate change in the Mediterranean region. Temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were studied together during a complete annual cycle before phenological events to determine their relative importance and potential seasonal carry‐over effects. Warm and dry springs under a positive phase of NAO advance flowering, leaf unfolding and fruiting dates and lengthen the growing season. Spatial variability of dates (range among sites) was also reduced during warm and dry years, especially for spring events. Climate during previous weeks to phenophases occurrence had the greatest impact on plants, although all events were also affected by climate conditions several months before. Immediate along with delayed climate effects suggest dual triggers in plant phenology. Climatic models accounted for more than 80% of variability in flowering and leaf unfolding dates, and in length of the growing season, but for lower proportions in fruiting and leaf falling. Most part of year‐to‐year changes in dates was accounted for temperature, while precipitation and NAO accounted for <10% of dates' variability. In the case of flowering, insect‐pollinated species were better modelled by climate than wind‐pollinated species. Differences in temporal responses of plant phenology to recent climate change are due to differences in the sensitivity to climate among events and species. Spring events are changing more than autumn events as they are more sensitive to climate and are also undergoing the greatest alterations of climate relative to other seasons. In conclusion, climate change has shifted plant phenology in the Mediterranean region.     

Investigating the impact of climate change on crop phenological events in Europe with a phenology model

Predicting regional and global carbon and water dynamics requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology. Vegetation models including cropland models exist (e.g. LPJmL, Daycent, SIBcrop, ORCHIDEE-STICS, PIXGRO) but they have various limitations in predicting cropland phenological events and their responses to climate change. Here, we investigate how leaf onset and offset days of major European croplands responded to changes in climate from 1971 to 2000 using a newly developed phenological model, which solely relies on climate data. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data measured with eddy covariance technique at seven sites in Europe were used to adjust model parameters for wheat, barley, and rapeseed. Observational data from the International Phenology Gardens were used to corroborate modeled phenological responses to changes in climate. Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and a crop calendar were explored as alternative predictors of leaf onset and harvest days, respectively, over a large spatial scale. In each spatial model simulation, we assumed that all European croplands were covered by only one crop type. Given this assumption, the model estimated that the leaf onset days for wheat, barley, and rapeseed in Germany advanced by 1.6, 3.4, and 3.4 days per decade, respectively, during 1961–2000. The majority of European croplands (71.4%) had an advanced mean leaf onset day for wheat, barley, and rapeseed (7.0% significant), whereas 28.6% of European croplands had a delayed leaf onset day (0.9% significant) during 1971–2000. The trend of advanced onset days estimated by the model is similar to observations from the International Phenology Gardens in Europe. The developed phenological model can be integrated into a large-scale ecosystem model to simulate the dynamics of phenological events at different temporal and spatial scales. Crop calendars and enhanced vegetation index have substantial uncertainties in predicting phenological events of croplands. Caution should be exercised when using these data.     

Long-term temporal changes of plant phenology in the Western Mediterranean

Plants are altering their life cycles in response to current climatic change around the globe. More than 200 000 records for six phenological events (leaf unfolding, flowering, fruit ripening, fruit harvesting, leaf falling and growing season) of 29 perennial species for the period 1943–2003 recorded throughout Spain provide the longest temporal and the broadest spatial assessment of plant phenology changes in the Mediterranean region. The overwhelming majority of the 118 studied phenophases shifted their dates in recent decades. Such changes differed among phenological events. Leaf unfolding, flowering and fruiting are markedly advancing (?0.48, ?0.59 and ?0.32 days yr^?1, respectively), but only since the mid‐1970s. Anemophilous have advanced more days their flowering than entomophilous. However, some species have delayed and others have advanced their leaf falling dates and as a result only a weak shift was observed in this event for the whole of the studied species (+0.12 days yr^?1). The growing season lengthened by 18 days, which implies an increase of 8% in the life of annual leaves. Such an increase was achieved mainly through the advance of leaf unfolding dates in the spring, one of the most productive times of year for vegetation in the Mediterranean. Shifts in the plant calendar were accompanied as well by long‐term changes in the range of onset dates in 39% of studied phenophases. Leaf unfolding, flowering and growing season tended to reduce spatial variability, reflecting a faster and more synchronized onset (or duration) of phenophases across the study area. Changes in spatial variability may aggravate calendar mismatching with other trophic levels resulting from changes in dates. Because temporal responses differed markedly among species, calendar guilds of plants have changed, which suggests alterations of interspecific relationships in plant communities from Mediterranean ecosystems.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3–27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.     

Long-term temporal changes in central European tree phenology (1946−2010) confirm the recent extension of growing seasons

One of the ways to assess the impacts of climate change on plants is analysing their long-term phenological data. We studied phenological records of 18 common tree species and their 8 phenological phases, spanning 65 years (1946?2010) and covering the area of the Czech Republic. For each species and phenophase, we assessed the changes in its annual means (for detecting shifts in the timing of the event) and standard deviations (for detecting changes in duration of the phenophases). The prevailing pattern across tree species was that since around the year 1976, there has been a consistent advancement of the onset of spring phenophases (leaf unfolding and flowering) and subsequent acceleration of fruit ripening, and a delay of autumn phenophases (leaf colouring and leaf falling). The most considerable shifts in the timing of spring phenophases were displayed by early-successional short-lived tree species. The most pronounced temporal shifts were found for the beginning of seed ripening in conifers with an advancement in this phenophase of up to 2.2 days year^?1 in Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris). With regards to the change in duration of the phenophases, no consistent patterns were revealed. The growing season has extended on average by 23.8 days during the last 35 years. The most considerable prolongation was found in Pedunculate Oak (Quercus robur): 31.6 days (1976?2010). Extended growing season lengths do have the potential to increase growth and seed productivity, but unequal shifts among species might alter competitive relationships within ecosystems.     

Scaling phenology from the local to the regional level: advances from species‐specific phenological models

Plant phenology, the study of seasonal plant activity driven by environmental factors, has found a renewal in the context of global climate change. Phenological events, such as leaf unfolding, exert strong control over seasonal exchanges of matter and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Phenological models that simulate the start of the growing season should be efficient tools to predict vegetation responses to climatic changes and related changes in energy balance. Species‐specific phenological models developed in the eighties have not been used for global‐scale predictions because their predictions were inaccurate in external conditions. Recent advances in phenology modelling at the species level suggest that prediction at a large scale may now be possible. In the present study, we tested the performance of species‐specific phenological models in time and space, looking at their ability (i) to predict regional phenology when previously fitted at a local scale, and (ii) to predict phenological trends, linked to climate changes, observed over a long‐term. For that task we used an historical phenological dataset from Ohio from the late ninetieth century and an airborne pollen dataset from Ontario, Québec and Maryland from the late twentieth century. The results show that the species‐specific phenological models used in this study were able to predict regional phenology even though they were fitted locally. The reconstruction of a phenological time series over the twentieth century showed a significant advancement of 0.2 days per year in the date of flowering of Ulmus americana, but very weak trends for Fraxinus americana and Quercus velutina.     

Canopy duration has little influence on annual carbon storage in the deciduous broad leaf forest

Vegetation phenology, the study of the timing and length of the terrestrial growing season and its connection to climate, is increasingly important in integrated Earth system science. Phenological variability is an excellent barometer of short‐ and long‐term climatic variability, strongly influences surface meteorology, and may influence the carbon cycle. Here, using the 1895–1993 Vegetation/Ecosystem Modelling and Analysis dataset and the Biome‐BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, we investigated the relationship between phenological metrics and annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon. For the 1167 deciduous broad leaf forest pixels, we found that NEE was extremely weakly related to canopy duration (days from leaf appearance to complete leaf fall). Longer canopy duration, did, however, sequester more carbon if warm season precipitation was above average. Carbon uptake period (number of days with net CO₂ uptake from the atmosphere), which integrates the influence of all ecosystem states and processes, was strongly related to NEE. Results from the Harvard Forest eddy‐covariance site supported our findings. Such dramatically different results from two definitions of ‘growing season length’ highlight the potential for confusion among the many disciplines engaged in phenological research.     

气候波动对西安39种木本植物展叶始期及其积温需求的影响

过去几十年来暖春等异常气候事件发生的频次和强度显著增加, 使植物春季物候期发生了明显变化。但异常气候事件对植物春季物候积温需求的影响仍不清楚, 限制了对未来物候变化预测精度的提升。该研究利用西安植物园1963-2018年39种木本植物的展叶始期和相应气象数据, 首先根据3-4月平均气温划分了偏冷年、正常年和偏暖年, 对比了冷暖年相对于正常年的展叶始期变化。其次, 利用3种积温算法计算了各植物逐年的展叶始期积温需求, 比较了积温需求在冷暖年和正常年的差异。最后, 评估了传统积温模型在模拟偏冷或偏暖年展叶始期时的误差。结果表明, 所有植物的展叶始期在偏暖年比正常年平均早8.6天, 而在偏冷年平均晚8.2天。在偏暖年, 大多数物种展叶始期的积温需求(以5 ℃为阈值, 平均257.5度日)显著高于正常年(平均195.1度日); 在偏冷年的积温需求(平均168.0度日)低于正常年, 但在统计上差异不显著。就不同类群而言, 古老类群相对于年轻类群在偏冷年的推迟天数更多, 积温需求变化较小, 但在偏暖年无显著差异。不同生活型间物候与积温需求变化也无显著差异。造成偏暖年积温需求增加的可能原因是偏暖年冬季气温较高, 导致植物受到的冷激程度减轻, 从而抑制了后续的展叶。在正常年, 积温模型模拟木本植物展叶始期的平均误差仅为0.4-1.9天。在偏暖年和偏冷年, 模拟值分别比观测值平均早4.1天和晚3.0天。因此在预测未来物候变化时, 需要考虑气候波动条件下的积温需求变化。     

暖温带乔木和灌木物候变化及对气候变化的响应

根据2003-2014年气象数据和暖温带3种乔木(辽东栎、五角枫和核桃楸)和3种灌木(土庄绣线菊、毛叶丁香和六道木)的物候观测数据资料, 采用气候倾向率和回归分析等方法, 观察乔木和灌木物候变化特征的差异, 分析温度、降水以及乔木、灌木的物候变化趋势, 同时对气象因子与乔木和灌木物候期的相关关系进行研究。结果表明: ①研究期间, 北京东灵山平均气温呈不显著的上升趋势, 气候倾向率为0.200℃·10a–1, 春季(3–5月)和夏季(6-8月)温度显著上升; 降水量呈下降趋势, 平均减少71.630 mm·10a–1, 总体呈暖、干的趋势。②3种乔木的生长季长度都缩短, 辽东栎、五角枫和核桃楸平均生长季长度分别缩短50.70 d·10 a–1、29.83 d·10a–1和22.36 d·10a–1。3种灌木的生长季长度也都缩短, 土庄绣线菊、毛叶丁香和六道木的平均生长季长度分别缩短42.55 d·10a–1、42.76 d·10a–1和38.15 d·10a–1。乔木和灌木的物候变化趋势相同, 整体表现为春季物候推迟, 秋季物候提前, 生长季长度都缩短且生长季长度相差不大。乔木和灌木都表现出芽期推迟最明显, 每10年推迟达19天以上。③乔木和灌木各物候期与气温总体表现为负相关, 即气温升高, 物候期提前, 其相关性显示出夏季(6-8月)温度对植被物候期影响较大, 夏季温度与各物候期表现为正相关, 即夏季温度升高, 物候期推迟。同时乔木和灌木与总体降水没有明显的相关关系, 但秋季物候与不同时段降水表现不同的相关性, 由此可知夏季温度变化对木本植物春季物候(出芽期、展叶期和首花期)的影响更大, 而秋季物候(叶变色期和落叶期)受温度和降水共同影响。     

Long‐term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species

Contrary to the generally advanced spring leaf unfolding under global warming, the effects of the climate warming on autumn leaf senescence are highly variable with advanced, delayed, and unchanged patterns being all reported. Using one million records of leaf phenology from four dominant temperate species in Europe, we investigated the temperature sensitivities of spring leaf unfolding and autumn leaf senescence (S_T, advanced or delayed days per degree Celsius). The S_T of spring phenology in all of the four examined species showed an increase and decrease during 1951–1980 and 1981–2013, respectively. The decrease in the S_T during 1981–2013 appears to be caused by reduced accumulation of chilling units. As with spring phenology, the S_T of leaf senescence of early successional and exotic species started to decline since 1980. In contrast, for late successional species, the S_T of autumn senescence showed an increase for the entire study period from 1951 to 2013. Moreover, the impacts of rising temperature associated with global warming on spring leaf unfolding were stronger than those on autumn leaf senescence. The timing of leaf senescence was positively correlated with the timing of leaf unfolding during 1951–1980. However, as climate warming continued, the differences in the responses between spring and autumn phenology gradually increased, so that the correlation was no more significant during 1981–2013. Our results further suggest that since 2000, due to the decreased temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding the length of the growing season has not increased any more. These finding needs to be addressed in vegetation models used for assessing the effects of climate change.     

Marked reduction in demographic rates and reduced fitness advantage for early breeding is not linked to reduced thermal matching of breeding time

Warmer springs may cause animals to become mistimed if advances of spring timing, including available resources and of timing of breeding occur at different speed. We used thermal sums (cumulative sum of degree days) during spring to describe the thermal progression (timing) of spring and investigate its relationship to breeding phenology and demography of a long‐distant migrant bird, the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe L.). We first compare 20‐year trends in spring timing, breeding time, selection for breeding time, and annual demographic rates. We then explicitly test whether annual variation in selection for breeding time and demographic rates associates with the degree of phenological matching between breeding time and thermal progression of spring. Both thermal progression of spring and breeding time of wheatears advanced in time during the study period. But despite breeding on average 7 days earlier with respect to date, wheatears bred about 4 days later with respect to thermal spring progression. Over the same time period, selection for breeding time changed from distinct within‐season advantage of breeding early to no or very weak advantage. Furthermore, demographic rates (nest success, fledgling production, recruitment, adult survival) and nestling weight declined markedly by 16%–79%. Those temporal trends suggest that a reduced degree of phenological matching may affect within‐season fitness advantage of early breeding and population demographic rates. In contrast, when we investigate links based on annual variation, we find no significant relationship between either demographic rates or fitness advantage of early breeding with annual variation in the degree of phenological matching. Our results show that corresponding temporal trends in phenological matching, selection for breeding time and demographic rates are inconclusive evidence for demographic effects of changed phenological matching. Instead, we suggest that the trends in selection for breeding time and demographic rates are due to a general deterioration of the breeding environment.