Were medieval warm-season temperatures in Jämtland,central Scandinavian Mountains,lower than previously estimated?

Today few high-quality tree-ring based temperature reconstructions extending over the past millennium exist, and those have, in general, low replication in their early parts. Here we present a new and updated maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology extending over the last 1200 years, built from local Scots pine wood sources (living trees, drywood preserved the ground, and subfossil wood extracted from lakes) all collected within 20 km in the Scandinavian Mountains in Jämtland. The MXD data was used to reconstruct April-September mean temperatures, where 60% of the variance in observed temperatures could be explained. The reconstruction exhibited distinct multidecadal variability, with the coldest periods centred on ca. 900, 1450, 1600 and 1900 CE, and the warmest periods on ca. 1160, 1250, 1500, 1660 CE. The last part of the 20th – early part of 21st century was the warmest period throughout the whole record, and the reconstruction suggests that, on average, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 950–1250 CE) was only slightly warmer than the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1450–1900 CE). In fact, compared to earlier reconstructions from the region, the new reconstruction suggested lower MCA warm-season temperatures. However, despite sufficient replication during that period, high inhomogeneity among the MXD series makes this period slightly uncertain. The unique drywood on which the chronology was built, displayed a distinct regeneration pattern, where changes in Scots pine establishment was interpreted as responses to changes in forest fire activity and climate throughout the past millennium.     

A 2917-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation for the Buerhanbuda Mts., Southeastern Qaidam Basin,China

In this study, we developed the tree-ring width chronology for the period of 1404 BCE to 2015 CE using Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) trees collected from the Buerhanbuda Mts. in the southeastern Qaidam Basin (QB) near Nuomuhong Village, Qinghai Province. This is the first and longest chronology to date in this region. Based on the relationships between the tree-ring width chronology and climate data, the annual precipitation from previous July to current June (July-June) was reconstructed for the past 2917 years from 902 BCE to 2015 CE. This reconstruction accounted for 47.9% of the total variance in the actual July-June precipitation in the calibration period (1957–2015). The full reconstruction captured distinct wet and dry variability, and contained evidence of some low-frequency climate signals. We identified 13 wet and 12 dry periods, of which 1443–1503 CE and 1789–1836 CE were the two longest dry periods. General agreements in the low-frequency variations between the July-June precipitation and other moisture-sensitive records for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) suggested that the reconstruction in this study represented a regional signal. Spatial correlations with gridded precipitation data also indicated that the reconstructed July-June precipitation could adequately represent climate fluctuations over a large area of the northeastern TP. The new tree-ring width chronology and precipitation reconstruction are important for understanding natural climate change in the southeastern QB.     

Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history

Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.     

Large-scale,millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings

Over the past two decades, the dendroclimate community has produced various annually resolved, warm season temperature reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Here we compare these tree-ring based reconstructions back to 831 CE and present a set of basic metrics to provide guidance for non-specialists on their interpretation and use. We specifically draw attention to (i) the imbalance between (numerous) short and (few) long site chronologies incorporated into the hemispheric means, (ii) the beneficial effects of including maximum latewood density chronologies in the recently published reconstructions, (iii) a decrease in reconstruction covariance prior to 1400 CE, and (iv) the varying amplitudes and trends of reconstructed temperatures over the past 1100 years. Whereas the reconstructions agree on several important features, such as warmth during medieval times and cooler temperatures in the 17th and 19th centuries, they still exhibit substantial differences during 13th and 14th centuries. We caution users who might consider combining the reconstructions through simple averaging that all reconstructions share some of the same underlying tree-ring data, and provide four recommendations to guide future efforts to better understand past millennium temperature variability.     

An Ensemble Weighting Approach for Dendroclimatology: Drought Reconstructions for the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Traditional detrending methods assign equal mean value to all tree-ring series for chronology developments, despite that the mean annual growth changes in different time periods. We find that the strength of a tree-ring model can be improved by giving more weights to tree-ring series that have a stronger climate signal and less weight to series that have a weaker signal. We thus present an ensemble weighting method to mitigate these potential biases and to more accurately extract the climate signals in dendroclimatology studies. This new method has been used to develop the first annual precipitation reconstruction (previous August to current July) at the Songmingyan Mountain and to recalculate the tree-ring chronology from Shenge site in Dulan area in northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), a marginal area of Asian summer monsoon. The ensemble weighting method explains 31.7% of instrumental variance for the reconstructions at Songmingyan Mountain and 57.3% of the instrumental variance in the Dulan area, which are higher than those developed using traditional methods. We focus on the newly introduced reconstruction at Songmingyan Mountain, which showsextremely dry (wet) epochs from 1862–1874, 1914–1933 and 1991–1999 (1882–1905). These dry/wet epochs were also found in the marginal areas of summer monsoon and the Indian subcontinent, indicating the linkages between regional hydroclimate changes and the Indian summer monsoon.     

The variable climate response of Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.)

Recent increases in temperature over the semi-arid western United States have been shown to exacerbate drought, reducing streamflow, and increasing stress on ecosystems. Our understanding of the role temperature played during drought in the more distant past is far from complete. While numerous tree-ring proxy records of moisture provide evidence for past extreme droughts in this region, few contemporaneous tree-ring proxy records of temperatures exist. This limits our ability to evaluate the variable influence of temperature on drought over past centuries and to contextualize the present interplay of moisture and temperature during more recent drought events. It is also important to understand the complexity of climatic interactions that produced drought under natural variability prior to evaluating the potential impacts of future climate change. In response to this knowledge gap, we undertook the first extensive evaluation of climate sensitivity in Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.), focusing on the potential for developing new multi-century proxy records of both temperature and precipitation. We isolated dominant patterns of growth variability among trees from ten ring-width datasets across the Southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico and assessed their response to climate. We utilized both an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and a modified form of hierarchical cluster analysis to produce time series representing growth patterns in P. aristata. The results indicate a widespread June drought stress signal with a high potential for multi-millennial reconstruction. We also found a positive minimum temperature response during late summer, evident only at lower frequency and co-occurring at locations with the June drought stress signal. The potential for temperature reconstruction will require further investigation into the physiological linkages between P. aristata and climate variability. The presence of multiple climate responses within P. aristata sampling sites highlights the need for particular care when including P. aristata in regional climate reconstructions.     

Comparison of whole wood and cellulose carbon and oxygen isotope series from Pinus nigra ssp. laricio (Corsica/France)

Stable isotopes in tree rings have widely been used for palaeoclimate reconstructions since tree rings record climatic information at annual resolution. However, various wood components or different parts of an annual tree-ring may differ in their isotopic compositions. Thus, sample preparation and subsequent laboratory analysis are crucial for the isotopic signal retained in the final tree-ring isotope series used for climate reconstruction and must therefore be considered for the interpretation of isotope–climate relationships. This study focuses on wood of Corsican Pine trees (Pinus nigra ssp. laricio) as this tree species allows to reconstruct the long-term climate evolution in the western Mediterranean. In a pilot study, we concentrated on methodological issues of sample preparation techniques in order to evaluate isotope records measured on pooled whole tree-ring cellulose and whole tree-ring bulk wood samples. We analysed 80-year long carbon and oxygen chronologies of Corsican Pine trees growing near the upper tree line on Corsica. Carbon and oxygen isotope records of whole tree-ring bulk wood and whole tree-ring cellulose from a pooled sample of 5 trees were correlated with the climate parameters monthly precipitation, temperature and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI). Results show that the offsets in carbon and oxygen isotopes of bulk wood and cellulose are not constant over time. Both isotopes correlate with climate parameters from late winter and summer. The carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of cellulose are more sensitive to climatic variables than those of bulk wood. The results of this study imply that extraction of cellulose is a pre-requisite for the reconstruction of high-resolution climate records from stable isotope series of P. nigra ssp. laricio.     

High-elevation tree-ring record of 263-year summer temperature for a cold-arid region in the western Himalaya,India

The unavailability of weather records from the orography dominated high Himalayas restricts our understanding in long term perspective. However, remote high-altitude regions of Himalaya silently testify the regional climate and can provide valuable insights of real climatic challenges in the absence of instrumental observatories. The tree-species over such high-altitude regions with negligible anthropogenic pressure have the potential to reveal the clear climate upheavals in long-term perspective. In the present study tree-ring samples of Himalayan birch from a high-altitude cold-arid region of Lahaul-Spiti, Himachal Pradesh were analysed and two ring-width chronologies were developed. The response function analyses showed direct relationship between the summer temperature and ring-width chronologies of Himalayan birch. Using the relationship we have reconstructed mean summer temperature (June-July) back to AD 1752 for the Lahaul-Spiti region of Himachal Pradesh. We have developed the first record of summer temperature from the Indian western Himalaya using tree-ring-width chronologies that have direct relationship with summer temperature. Further, our study in accordance with instrumental as well as other tree-ring based summer temperature records suggested that the high-altitude western Himalaya is not warming unprecedently during summers. However, slight warming pattern have been observed in the summer temperature in the later part of the reconstruction. The temperature reconstruction also reflects strong spatial correlation with gridded temperature for the western Himalaya.     

A 1700-year Athrotaxis selaginoides tree-ring width chronology from southeastern Australia

Few Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies exceed 1000 years in length. We present a ca. 1700 years of indexed values for the long-lived conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides at Cradle Mt in southeastern Australia and compare it with the only other published millennial-plus length tree-ring chronology for Australia: the nearby Mt Read Lagarostrobos franklinii. We use simple correlation function and pointer year analyses to compare the climate responses of the two species (temperature, precipitation and growing degree days). Both chronologies show accelerated growth at their modern ends, but this growth acceleration is not synchronous, beginning approximately a quarter of a century earlier at the Cradle Mt site. This discrepancy may highlight the relevance of chronology composition and/or physiological differences in the species. Although the seasonality of the climatic responses of the two species is similar, that of A. selaginoides is generally weaker than that of L. franklinii. Somewhat paradoxically, the only pointer years in common between the chronologies are 1898 and 1908 CE. The periods from 600 to 900 CE and ∼1200–1450 CE are conspicuous for their absence of positive pointer years while no negative pointer years occur for either site from ∼1200–1350 CE. It is possible that differing patterns of pointer years can be partially explained by a peak in establishment from ∼1150–1850 CE at the Mt Read L. franklinii site compared to continuous establishment at Cradle Mt. Although statistically significant and time-stable climate responses for the A. selaginoides chronology are too weak to base a single-chronology climate reconstruction on, the long chronology will likely make an important contribution to future multi-proxy temperature reconstructions for southeastern Australia.     

Testing for tree-ring divergence in the European Alps

Evidence for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature has been reported from multiple forests along the high northern latitudes. This alleged circumpolar phenomenon described the apparent inability of temperature-sensitive tree-ring width and density chronologies to parallel increasing instrumental temperature measurements since the mid-20th century. In addition to such low-frequency trend offset, the inability of formerly temperature-sensitive tree growth to reflect high-frequency temperature signals in a warming world is indicated at some boreal sites, mainly in Alaska, the Yukon and Siberia. Here, we refer to both of these findings as the ‘divergence problem’ (DP), with their causes and scale being debated. If DP is widespread and the result of climatic forcing, the overall reliability of tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions should be questioned. Testing for DP benefits from well-replicated tree-ring and instrumental data spanning from the 19th to the 21st century. Here, we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc. Tree-ring width chronologies from 40 larch and 24 spruce sites were selected based on their correlation with early (1864–1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934–2003) temperature variations. After the tree-ring series of both species were detrended in a manner that allows low-frequency variations to be preserved and scaled against summer temperatures, no unusual late 20th century DP is found. Independent tree-ring width and density evidence for unprecedented late 20th century temperatures with respect to the past millennium further reinforces our results.     

May–June drought reconstruction over the past 821 years on the south-central Tibetan Plateau derived from tree-ring width series

Knowledge of drought variability and their possible mechanisms during the past hundred years is still limited in the mountainous region of south-central Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, a long-term tree-ring width chronology dating back to 1190 CE was combined using 328 increment cores from the Nagqu region. Based on the relationships between this tree-ring width chronology and climate data, we reconstructed May–June self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) for the past 821 years (1190–2010 CE). Additional comparisons with other available precipitation or drought reconstructions were conducted. We further investigated the influence of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) on the drought variability in our study region. Results indicated that our tree-ring width chronology contained stable drought signal in the early summer season (May–June). During the past 821 years, the longest dry and wet periods lasted for 116 and 90 years, respectively, based on a 21-year Fast Fourier transform filter. Specifically, longer than ten years’ dry periods prevailed during 1211–1245 CE, 1280–1358, 1421–1471, 1500–1571, 1580–1598, 1650–1691, 1782–1807 and 1867–1982; while wet intervals occurred in 1190–1210 CE, 1246–1279, 1359–1420, 1472–1499, 1599–1649, 1692–1781, 1808–1866 and 1983–2010. Generally consistent dry and wet intervals across the southern TP were found by comparisons with other available datasets during their common periods. Interestingly, we detected an unstable influence of the SASM on the May–June drought variability in our study region, at least for the past three and a half centuries. This study therefore gives a new perspective of drought variability as well as their relationships with the SASM over a long-term period on the south-central TP.     

Can We Use Tree Rings of Black Alder to Reconstruct Lake Levels? A Case Study for the Mecklenburg Lake District,Northeastern Germany

In this study, we explore the potential to reconstruct lake-level (and groundwater) fluctuations from tree-ring chronologies of black alder (Alnus glutinosa L.) for three study lakes in the Mecklenburg Lake District, northeastern Germany. As gauging records for lakes in this region are generally short, long-term reconstructions of lake-level fluctuations could provide valuable information on past hydrological conditions, which, in turn, are useful to assess dynamics of climate and landscape evolution. We selected black alder as our study species as alder typically thrives as riparian vegetation along lakeshores. For the study lakes, we tested whether a regional signal in lake-level fluctuations and in the growth of alder exists that could be used for long-term regional hydrological reconstructions, but found that local (i.e. site-specific) signals in lake level and tree-ring chronologies prevailed. Hence, we built lake/groundwater-level reconstruction models for the three study lakes individually. Two sets of models were considered based on (1) local tree-ring series of black alder, and (2) site-specific Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI). Although the SPEI-based models performed statistically well, we critically reflect on the reliability of these reconstructions, as SPEI cannot account for human influence. Tree-ring based reconstruction models, on the other hand, performed poor. Combined, our results suggest that, for our study area, long-term regional reconstructions of lake-level fluctuations that consider both recent and ancient (e.g., archaeological) wood of black alder seem extremely challenging, if not impossible.     

Climate signal strength in tree-ring width of spruce growing in the Solovetsky Islands (Russia)

In this study we used 14 spruce tree-ring width local chronologies from sites that are located in different landscape conditions. The climatic response function for the entire period (116 years) shows that all local chronologies without exception have a positive relationship with June temperature (from 0.196 to 0.408) despite quite different local environmental conditions. This finding allowed us to combine all tree-ring width local chronologies into a composite spruce chronology covering the period of 1676–2016 CE with EPS exceeding the 0.85 threshold. The composite chronology was scaled against June air temperatures (CRU TS 4.01) in order to reconstruct it. Monthly air temperature records from the Arkhangelsk weather station were used as an additional source to validate tree-ring based June temperature reconstruction. It is quite remarkable that our reconstruction matches the Archangelsk records not only in the 20th-early 21st centuries but also in the 19th century, confirming the reliability of the reconstruction over more than two centuries. We also used daily records from the nearest Kem’-Port station to identify a more precise target-window. Current research shows that the spruce response to daily temperature is not limited by June, but also extends up to almost half of July. The warmest reconstructed year occurred in 1856 as confirmed by the data published in the local chronicle. The cooling recorded in the historical evidences (describing extremely severe ice conditions in the Arctic seas during the Great Northern Expedition (1733–1743)) was not corroborated by our reconstruction. In the study, we discuss the reasons of the discrepancies found between Solovki June temperature reconstructions and other data such as different seasonality of the compared records, real local climate warming in Solovki, the applied standardization technique, and low of chronologies’ replication. The most reliable part of the reconstruction part lasting from the early 19th to the early 21st centuries is also discussed in terms of its properties like wavelength analyses, and the assessment of influence of volcanic eruptions.     

Climate–tree growth relationships of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) in the Southeastern Coastal Plain, USA

Knowledge of tree growth/climate response relationships is important to dendroecological studies and dendroclimatic reconstructions, particularly in the Southeastern Coastal Plain where few such studies have been attempted. To this end, we developed tree-ring chronologies of total ring width, earlywood width, and latewood width from longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) at three sites in the Southeastern Coastal Plain to examine the climate–growth relationships for this tree species. The length of these chronologies is unprecedented for southern pine chronologies in the Southeast. We compared the tree-ring chronologies to monthly temperature, precipitation, Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and Palmer hydrological drought index (PHDI) data from the pertinent climate divisions. We found that PDSI and PHDI have the highest correlation with longleaf pine growth, and the strongest relationships between longleaf pine growth and these variables occur between July and November. Precipitation in the spring and summer was also positively related to growth at all sites. The relationship between temperature and growth was the weakest among all climate variables, but warm summer temperatures had a consistent, negative relationship with longleaf pine growth. The climate signal in the latewood was generally more robust than for total ring width and earlywood width.     

The Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction during the Last Millennium Based on a Novel Method

Large-scale climate history of the past millennium reconstructed solely from tree-ring data is prone to underestimate the amplitude of low-frequency variability. In this paper, we aimed at solving this problem by utilizing a novel method termed “MDVM”, which was a combination of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variance matching techniques. We compiled a set of 211 tree-ring records from the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (30–90°N) in an effort to develop a new reconstruction of the annual mean temperature by the MDVM method. Among these dataset, a number of 126 records were screened out to reconstruct temperature variability longer than decadal scale for the period 850–2000 AD. The MDVM reconstruction depicted significant low-frequency variability in the past millennium with evident Medieval Warm Period (MWP) over the interval 950–1150 AD and pronounced Little Ice Age (LIA) cumulating in 1450–1850 AD. In the context of 1150-year reconstruction, the accelerating warming in 20^th century was likely unprecedented, and the coldest decades appeared in the 1640s, 1600s and 1580s, whereas the warmest decades occurred in the 1990s, 1940s and 1930s. Additionally, the MDVM reconstruction covaried broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing, and especially showed distinct footprints of multiple volcanic eruptions in the last millennium. Comparisons of our results with previous reconstructions and model simulations showed the efficiency of the MDVM method on capturing low-frequency variability, particularly much colder signals of the LIA relative to the reference period. Our results demonstrated that the MDVM method has advantages in studying large-scale and low-frequency climate signals using pure tree-ring data.     

A 382-year reconstruction of August mean minimum temperature from tree-ring maximum latewood density on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Long-term summer temperature records are important for climate studies on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, we used tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) to develop a well-replicated regional chronology back to the year 1630 for the southeastern TP. The MXD chronology is positively related to the observed August mean minimum temperatures (AMMT) in the period 1961–2011. Therefore, the AMMT was reconstructed from the MXD chronology. The reconstruction explained 42.6% of the total variance in the observed AMMT. During the past 382 years, warm periods were found during 1646–1694, 1770–1805, 1930–1971 and 1992–2011, and cold periods were found during 1630–1645, 1695–1749, 1806–1825, 1889–1929 and 1972–1991. Extreme cold summers (≤mean − 2 SD) occurred in the years 1701, 1777, 1810, 1817, 1835, 1843, 1857, 1871, 1911, 1914, 1915, 1939, 1983 and 1984, whereas the warm summers (≥mean + 2 SD) occurred in the years 1786, 1788, 2003, 2004 and 2005. A comparison with temperature records in surrounding regions showed general agreements, indicating the fidelity of our reconstruction and its ability to represent summer temperature variations over a broad geographic extent. Conspicuous in-phase relationships between our reconstruction and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indicated a strongly positive association between large-scale climate circulations and summer temperature variability on the southeastern TP at multidecadal scales.     

Consequences of larch budmoth outbreaks on the climatic significance of ring width and stable isotopes of larch

Tree-ring widths and stable carbon and oxygen isotopes of five European larch trees from Lötschental, Switzerland were investigated for the period 1900–2004. The objective was to test the suitability of each of these parameters for high-frequency climate reconstructions. This is of special interest with regard to the problem of cyclic larch budmoth (LBM) infestations of alpine larch trees. The results clearly demonstrate that tree-ring width chronologies are not suitable for high-frequency reconstructions because infestations lead to variably reduced tree-ring increments, largely suppressing climate signals. On the other hand, the stable isotope chronologies proved less affected by larch budmoth outbreaks, independent of the strength of the infestations. The correlation of the carbon isotopes with summer temperatures was especially high (r = 0.73) and with precipitation lower but nevertheless significant (r = ?0.43). Oxygen isotopes were also correlated with summer temperature (r = 0.46); however, a certain perturbation of normal oxygen isotope signatures due to LBM outbreaks was evident. Contrary to tree-ring widths, none of the LBM outbreaks caused a significant disturbance of the current year’s isotopic climate signal and, most importantly, there were no delayed effects in the following years. Thus, stable carbon isotopes in tree-ring chronologies of the European larch provide an excellent opportunity for high-frequency temperature reconstructions.     

An exploration of the controls of pre-instrumental streamflow using multiple tree-ring proxies

Previous studies have used tree-ring chronologies from several species to develop reconstructions of precipitation, temperature, streamflow and glacier mass balance for sites in Banff National Park, Alberta. This study examines the variability in a >300-year summer streamflow reconstruction for the Bow River at Banff in conjunction with changes in the major contributors to streamflow (glacier melt, winter and summer pecipitation). Reconstructed winter mass balance for Peyto Glacier is used as a surrogate for winter precipitation and April–August precipitation is reconstructed for Banff. Streamflow variability correlates most highly with winter precipitation and periods of high flow follow above average snowfall in the previous winter (high winter balance) and in some cases also with above normal summer precipitation. A clear response to changes in summer mass balance at Peyto Glacier (i.e. summer glacier melting) cannot be identified in this summer discharge record. Problems developing physically realistic flow reconstructions for snowmelt dominated rivers from summer sensitive tree-ring chronologies are also discussed.     

Tree ring imprints of long-term changes in climate in western Himalaya,India

Tree-ring analyses from semi-arid to arid regions in western Himalaya show immense potential for developing millennia long climate records. Millennium and longer ring-width chronologies of Himalayan pencil juniper (Juniperus polycarpos), Himalayan pencil cedar (Cedrus deodara) and Chilgoza pine (Pinus gerardiana) have been developed from different sites in western Himalaya. Studies conducted so far on various conifer species indicate strong precipitation signatures in ring-width measurement series. The paucity of weather records from stations close to tree-ring sampling sites poses difficulty in calibrating tree-ring data against climate data especially precipitation for its strong spatial variability in mountain regions. However, for the existence of strong coherence in temperature, even in data from distant stations, more robust temperature reconstructions representing regional and hemispheric signatures have been developed. Tree-ring records from the region indicate multi-century warm and cool anomalies consistent with the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age anomalies. Significant relationships noted between mean premonsoon temperature over the western Himalaya and ENSO features endorse utility of climate records from western Himalayan region in understanding long-term climate variability and attribution of anthropogenic impact.     

Hierarchical regression models for dendroclimatic standardization and climate reconstruction

Tree-ring based paleoclimate reconstructions entail several sequential estimation or processing steps. Consequently, it can be difficult to isolate climatic from non-climatic variability in the raw ring width measurements, estimate the uncertainty associated with a reconstruction, and directly infer how specific techniques used to sequentially fit growth curves or to reconstruct climate influence the final estimates. This paper explores the use of hierarchical regression models to address these problems. The proposed models simultaneously model the entire reconstruction process in a way that is consistent with the existing step-by-step estimation framework, but allow for uncertainty estimation and propagation across steps, which can help determine how best to improve a candidate model. The utility of hierarchical models is tested for an example, the reconstruction of summertime temperatures in northern Sweden in a cross-validated framework relative to 1) a sequential process of growth curve fitting followed by chronology development, 3) an iterative, “signal-free” approach, and 2) a signal-free regional curve standardization (RCS-SF). Further, an exploration of different structures within the unifying hierarchical framework is provided to illustrate how one could easily test a variety of choices of model design. We focus on a subset of choices relevant to recent dendroclimatic studies using hierarchical methods and related to 1) data transformation, 2) the benefits of biological detrending and climate reconstruction in a single step 3) partial pooling of the age model across trees, 4) the homogeneity of variance across tree-ring residuals, 5) the structural form of the age model, and 6) the inclusion of autoregressive processes for the tree-ring residuals. The work described here represents part of a series of ongoing explorations of potential advances over current dendroclimatic reconstruction approaches and commonly implemented ways in which they have and are specifically implemented. The results show that hierarchical modeling appears to offer improved climate reconstructions over the standardization techniques explored in this exercise, substantially so for the non-RCS sequential and iterative methods.