Match probabilities in racially admixed populations.

The calculation of match probabilities is the most contentious issue dividing prosecution and defense experts in the forensic applications of DNA fingerprinting. In particular, defense experts question the applicability of the population genetic laws of Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium to racially admixed American populations. Linkage equilibrium justifies the product rule for computing match probabilities across loci. The present paper suggests a method of bounding match probabilities that depends on modeling gene descent from ancestral populations to contemporary populations under the assumptions of Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium only in the ancestral populations. Although these bounds are conservative from the defendant's perspective, they should be small enough in practice to satisfy prosecutors.     

The probability of matching genetic markers in different samples

Hypervariable DNA polymorphisms in humans have been introduced in forensic science for the exclusion of innocent persons, and possibily for the identification of guilty ones, through mismatches and matches of DNA patterns in incriminating samples. Under the assumption of random mating and linkage equilibrium, it is observed that the probability of mismatch, then of exclusion of innocent persons, is very high. The probability of a match on the contrary may be very low, particularly when several hypervariable DNA polymorphisms are used for the DNA pattern. When a match is observed, and the probability of match is calculated, and it is lower than one in five billions, this might be considered incriminating by a judge. It is concluded that an innocent person has all advantages in submitting to the DNA fingerprinting test.     

Conditional genotypic probabilities for microsatellite loci

Modern forensic DNA profiles are constructed using microsatellites, short tandem repeats of 2-5 bases. In the absence of genetic data on a crime-specific subpopulation, one tool for evaluating profile evidence is the match probability. The match probability is the conditional probability that a random person would have the profile of interest given that the suspect has it and that these people are different members of the same subpopulation. One issue in evaluating the match probability is population differentiation, which can induce coancestry among subpopulation members. Forensic assessments that ignore coancestry typically overstate the strength of evidence against the suspect. Theory has been developed to account for coancestry; assumptions include a steady-state population and a mutation model in which the allelic state after a mutation event is independent of the prior state. Under these assumptions, the joint allelic probabilities within a subpopulation may be approximated by the moments of a Dirichlet distribution. We investigate the adequacy of this approximation for profiled loci that mutate according to a generalized stepwise model. Simulations suggest that the Dirichlet theory can still overstate the evidence against a suspect with a common microsatellite genotype. However, Dirichlet-based estimators were less biased than the product-rule estimator, which ignores coancestry.     

Nondetectability of restriction fragments and independence of DNA fragment sizes within and between loci in RFLP typing of DNA.

We provide experimental evidence showing that, during the restriction-enzyme digestion of DNA samples, some of the HaeIII-digested DNA fragments are small enough to prevent their reliable sizing on a Southern gel. As a result of such nondetectability of DNA fragments, individuals who show a single-band DNA profile at a VNTR locus may not necessarily be true homozygotes. In a population database, when the presence of such nondetectable alleles is ignored, we show that a pseudodependence of alleles within as well as across loci may occur. Using a known statistical method, under the hypothesis of independence of alleles within loci, we derive an efficient estimate of null allele frequency, which may be subsequently used for testing allelic independence within and across loci. The estimates of null allele frequencies, thus derived, are shown to agree with direct experimental data on the frequencies of HaeIII-null alleles. Incorporation of null alleles into the analysis of the forensic VNTR database suggests that the assumptions of allelic independence within and between loci are appropriate. In contrast, a failure to incorporate the occurrence of null alleles would provide a wrong inference regarding the independence of alleles within and between loci.     

Direct sequencing of RAPD fragments using 3'-extended oligonucleotide primers and dye terminator cycle-sequencing.

Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers are used widely to develop high resolution genetic maps and for genome fingerprinting. Typically, single oligomers of approximately 10 nucleotides are used to PCR amplify characteristic RAPD marker fragments. We describe an efficient method for the direct end-sequencing of gel-purified RAPD fragments using one primer from a set of four 3'-terminal extended (A, T, C or G) oligonucleotides, identical to the RAPD primer but for the single nucleotide extension. Strand-specific DNA sequence could be independently read from each of the RAPD fragments without recourse to strand separation or fragment cloning. Informative RAPD fragments could be readily converted into mapped STS or SCAR loci using this technology. The 3'-extended primers may also be used to amplify independent genomic RAPD markers.     

Population genetics of the yellow fever mosquito in Trinidad: comparisons of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers

Recent development of DNA markers provides powerful tools for population genetic analyses. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers result from a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based DNA fingerprinting technique that can detect multiple restriction fragments in a single polyacrylamide gel, and thus are potentially useful for population genetic studies. Because AFLP markers have to be analysed as dominant loci in order to estimate population genetic diversity and genetic structure parameters, one must assume that dominant (amplified) alleles are identical in state, recessive (unamplified) alleles are identical in state, AFLP fragments segregate according to Mendelian expectations and that the genotypes of an AFLP locus are in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). The HWE assumption is untestable for natural populations using dominant markers. Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers segregate as codominant alleles, and can therefore be used to test the HWE assumption that is critical for analysing AFLP data. This study examined whether the dominant AFLP markers could provide accurate estimates of genetic variability for the Aedes aegypti mosquito populations of Trinidad, West Indies, by comparing genetic structure parameters using AFLP and RFLP markers. For AFLP markers, we tested a total of five primer combinations and scored 137 putative loci. For RFLP, we examined a total of eight mapped markers that provide a broad coverage of mosquito genome. The estimated average heterozygosity with AFLP markers was similar among the populations (0.39), and the observed average heterozygosity with RFLP markers varied from 0.44 to 0.58. The average FST (standardized among-population genetic variance) estimates were 0.033 for AFLP and 0.063 for RFLP markers. The genotypes at several RFLP loci were not in HWE, suggesting that the assumption critical for analysing AFLP data was invalid for some loci of the mosquito populations in Trinidad. Therefore, the results suggest that, compared with dominant molecular markers, codominant DNA markers provide better estimates of population genetic variability, and offer more statistical power for detecting population genetic structure.     

Correlation of DNA fragment sizes within loci in the presence of non-detectable alleles

At present most forensic databases of DNA profiling of individuals consist of DNA fragment sizes measured from Southern blot restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis. Statistical studies of these databases have revealed that, when fragment sizes are measured from RFLP analysis, some of the single-band patterns of individuals may actually be due to heterozygosity of alleles in which fragment size resulting from one allele remains undetected. In this work, we evaluate the effect of such allelic non-detectability on correlation of fragment sizes within individuals at a locus, and its impact on the inference of independence of fragment sizes within loci. We show that when non-detectable alleles are present in a population at a locus, positive correlations of fragment sizes are expected, which increase with the proportion of non-detectable alleles at the locus. Therefore, a non-zero positive correlation is not a proof of allelic dependence within individuals. Applications of this theory to the current forensic RFLP databases within the US show that there is virtually no evidence of significant allelic dependence within any of the loci. Therefore, the assumption that DNA fragment sizes within loci are independent is valid, and hence, the population genetic principles of computing DNA profile frequencies by multiplying binned frequencies of fragment sizes are most likely to be appropriate for forensic applications of DNA typing data.Editor's commentsThe presence of non-detectable alleles for VNTR loci has plagued the use of these highly-discriminating systems in human identification. The authors take explicit account of these alleles, and are able to show independence of the frequencies of detectable alleles. They raise the troubling issue of how to account for occasional significant results when multiple tests are performed. By invoking Bonferroni corrections, they regard all tests, even those performed on different loci, as addressing the same hypothesis—the absence of dependence at any VNTR locus.     

DNA fingerprinting in roe deer using the digoxigenated probe (GTG)5

The digoxigenin-labelled oligonucleotide (GTG)₅ was used as a multilocus probe to detect hypervariable microsatellites in roe deer DNA digested with Hae III. The resulting fingerprints of 24 animals belonging to four subpopulations were characterized with regard to within-subpopulation as well as between-subpopulation similarity. The mean number of polymorphic fragments was 20 and the average band-sharing rate for unrelated animals 0.27. A mean probability of 91.5% for a fragment to be present in the heterozygous state was evaluated and the probabilities of identical band patterns in unrelated individuals were estimated to be in the range 1.3 times 10^-16 - 2.5 times 10^-18. Though band-sharing rates of animals belonging to different subpopulations (range 0.18-0.24) were lower than those of within-subpopulations, several measures of population subdivision and the genetic distance do not reveal a striking differentiation of the subpopulations studied.     

A note on Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium of VNTR data by using the Federal Bureau of Investigation''s fixed-bin method.

To fully utilize the information of VNTR data for forensic inference, the probability of observing the matching suspect and evidentiary profile in a reference population is estimated, usually by assuming independence of alleles within and between loci. This assumption has been challenged on the basis of the observation that there is frequently an excess of single-band phenotypes (SBP) in forensic data bases, which could indicate lack of independence. Nevertheless, another explanation is that the excess SBP are artifacts of laboratory methods. In this report we examine the excess of SBP for three VNTR loci studied by the FBI (D17S79 and D2S44, for blacks, and D14S13, for Caucasians). The FBI claims that the excess is due to the effect of null alleles; the null alleles are suspected to be too small to be detected. We estimate the frequency of null alleles for two loci (D17S79 and D14S13) by comparing, for these loci, the data from the FBI data base and the data from the Lifecodes data base. These comparisons yield information on small fragments because Lifecodes uses the restriction enzyme PstI, which yields larger fragments than does HaeIII, which the FBI uses. For D17S79 in blacks, we estimate a null allele frequency of 4.4%, and, for D14S13 in Caucasians, we estimate a frequency of 3.0%. The null-allele frequency for D2S44 in blacks is derived similarly, again being based on analyses of DNA cut with HaeIII and PstI; our estimate of the null-allele frequency for this locus is 1.5%.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Fingerprinting closely related xanthomonas pathovars with random nonamer oligonucleotide microarrays

Current bacterial DNA-typing methods are typically based on gel-based fingerprinting methods. As such, they access a limited complement of genetic information and many independent restriction enzymes or probes are required to achieve statistical rigor and confidence in the resulting pattern of DNA fragments. Furthermore, statistical comparison of gel-based fingerprints is complex and nonstandardized. To overcome these limitations of gel-based microbial DNA fingerprinting, we developed a prototype, 47-probe microarray consisting of randomly selected nonamer oligonucleotides. Custom image analysis algorithms and statistical tools were developed to automatically extract fingerprint profiles from microarray images. The prototype array and new image analysis algorithms were used to analyze 14 closely related Xanthomonas pathovars. Of the 47 probes on the prototype array, 10 had diagnostic value (based on a chi-squared test) and were used to construct statistically robust microarray fingerprints. Analysis of the microarray fingerprints showed clear differences between the 14 test organisms, including the separation of X. oryzae strains 43836 and 49072, which could not be resolved by traditional gel electrophoresis of REP-PCR amplification products. The proof-of-application study described here represents an important first step to high-resolution bacterial DNA fingerprinting with microarrays. The universal nature of the nonamer fingerprinting microarray and data analysis methods developed here also forms a basis for method standardization and application to the forensic identification of other closely related bacteria.     

The efficiency of multilocus DNA fingerprint probes for individualization and establishment of family relationships, determined from extensive casework.

The properties of human DNA fingerprints detected by multilocus minisatellite probes 33.6 and 33.15 have been investigated in 36 large sibships and in 1,702 Caucasian paternity cases involving the analysis of over 180,000 DNA fingerprint bands. The degree of overlap of minisatellite loci detected by these two probes is shown to be negligible (approximately 1%), and the resulting DNA fingerprints are therefore derived from independent sets of hypervariable loci. The level of allelism and linkage between different hypervariable DNA fragments scored with these probes is also low, implying substantial statistical independence of DNA fragments. Variation between the DNA fingerprints of different individuals indicates that the probability of chance identity is very low (much less than 10(-7) per probe). Empirical observations and theoretical considerations both indicate that genetic heterogeneity between subpopulations is unlikely to affect substantially the statistical evaluation of DNA fingerprints, at least among Caucasians. In paternity analysis, the proportion of nonmaternal DNA fragments in a child which cannot be attributed to the alleged father is shown to be an efficient statistic for distinguishing fathers from nonfathers, even in the presence of minisatellite mutation. Band-sharing estimates between a claimed parent and a child can also distinguish paternity from nonpaternity, though with less efficiency than comparison of a trio of mother, child, and alleged father.     

GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION IN ASIMINA TRILOBA DUNAL (ANNONACEAE) REVEALED BY THE M13 “DNA FINGERPRINTING” PROBE

Genetic variation for variable DNA loci was investigated in Asimina triloba using the M13 “fingerprinting” probe. A survey of plants from widely separated sites across portions of the geographical range of the species showed that each site possessed a distinct set of DNA fragments. The probability of two individuals having identical fragment patterns was approximately 1/1,700 at this geographical range. Levels of variation at local sites were quite different than at a wide geographic scale. Within-population variation ranged from moderate levels to none. The fragment profile of a fruit-bearing tree was compared with those of nine of its offspring; all progeny were identical with the maternal parent, indicating that both the staminate and carpellate sources were homozygous at all detected loci. These results suggest that while genetic variation is detectable both among distant individuals and within some very local populations, clonal propagation and/or inbreeding have led to a lack of genetic variation in some populations of A. tribola.     

Multiple Decrement Analysis with Dependent Risks

In a competing risks problem where a well-defined population is exposed simultaneously to several causes of death, interest has centered on the estimation of the probability of death from a given cause when one or more other causes have been eliminated. A basic component of all available procedures for estimating these probabilities is the assumption that the several causes of death act independently—an unrealistic assumption in the context of human and animal populations. This article considers the estimation of these probabilities assuming the existence ofinterdependencies among the various causes of death. A general formula is derived based on a given set of crude probabilities of death as well as the characteristics of the joint distribution of random variables indicating death from the various causes. This formula identifies alternative assumptions, less restrictive than that of independent risks, which may he used for estimation purposes.     

Parentage analysis for three Romanian families by DNA-fingerprinting

In forensic medicine, DNA fingerprinting for human identification and paternity testing is becoming a necessary procedure. The genetic locus D1S80 (MCT118) with Hinf I polymorphism of its 5' flanking sequence, HUMTH01 and D21S11 have been successfully amplified from human genomic DNA isolated from blood (50 ng from each sample) by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using oligonucleotide primers complementary to the flanking sequences as primers for amplification. DNA bands were detected by ethidium bromide staining after electrophoresis on agarose gels or high-resolution SDS-PAGE. Analysis of these VNTR loci was thus achieved without the need for Southern blot or radioactive material. The small size of the DNA fragments produced in the PCR amplification permitted good resolution of individual alleles. The precise specification of the number of tandem repeats present in each allelic fragment was reproducible from one analysis to another. The aim of this study includes three paternity testing cases; they are the first three human DNA-fingerprints performed in Romania.     

Polymorphic distribution and forensic effectiveness study of eight miniSTR in Chinese Uyghur ethnic group

We obtained the allelic frequencies and forensic efficiency data for eight mini short tandem repeat loci including Penta E, D12S391, D6S1043, D2S1338, D19S433, CSF1PO, Penta D and D19S253 loci from a sample of 128 unrelated Uyghur individuals from China. The amplification products of the eight STR loci are <240 bp in size. A total of 94 alleles were observed and the corresponding allelic frequencies ranged from 0.0039 to 0.3438 in the present study. Observed genotype distributions for each locus do not show deviations from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium expectations. The combined power of discrimination, combined power of exclusion and combined matching probability of the eight STR loci equaled to 0.999999999963373, 0.9997770 and 3.6627 × 10^?11, respectively. Because of the small fragment length of PCR products and the high degree of polymorphisms, the eight STR loci are highly beneficial for the forensic analysis of degraded DNA samples which are commonly observed in forensic cases. The STR data of the Uyghur group were compared with the previously published population STR data of other groups from different ethnic or areas, and significant differences were observed among these groups at some loci.     

Analysis of DNA polymorphism in populations of the Volga-Ural region using genome fingerprinting with phage M13 DNA]

The hyperpolymorphism of minisatellite DNA hybridizing with DNA of bacteriophage M13 was analyzed in seven Turkic and Finno-Ugric populations from the Volga-Urals region. In total, hybridization revealed 80 BspRI genomic DNA fragments ranging in size from 1.7 to 10 kb; the average frequency of an individual fragment was 0.299 +/- 0.020. The average number of hybridization fragments per pattern (varying from 14 to 20 in different populations) and frequencies of individual fragments showed significant interpopulation differences. Parameters of this polymorphic system were assumed to reflect phenotypic diversity of populations. Genome fingerprinting with the use of phage M13 can be employed in the studies of population genetic structure and differentiation and in forensic medicine, for more accurate personal identification.     

Evaluation of 13 short tandem repeat loci for use in personal identification applications.

Personal identification by using DNA typing methodologies has been an issue in the popular and scientific press for several years. We present a PCR-based DNA-typing method using 13 unlinked short tandem repeat (STR) loci. Validation of the loci and methodology has been performed to meet standards set by the forensic community and the accrediting organization for parentage testing. Extensive statistical analysis has addressed the issues surrounding the presentation of "match" statistics. We have found STR loci to provide a rapid, sensitive, and reliable method of DNA typing for parentage testing, forensic identification, and medical diagnostics. Valid statistical analysis is generally simpler than similar analysis of RFLP-VNTR results and provides powerful statistical evidence of the low frequency of random multilocus genotype matching.     

Fragment length distributions and collision probabilities for AFLP markers

AFLP is a DNA fingerprinting technique frequently used in plant and animal sciences. A drawback of the technique is the occurrence of multiple DNA fragments of the same length in a single AFLP lane, which we name a collision. In this article we quantify the problem. The well-known birthday problem plays a role. Calculation of collision probabilities requires a fragment length distribution (fld). We discuss three ways to estimate the fld: based on theoretical considerations, on in-silico determination using DNA sequence data from Arabidopsis thaliana, or on direct estimation from AFLP data. In the latter case we use a generalized linear model with monotone smoothing of the fragment length probabilities. Collision probabilities are calculated from two perspectives, assuming known fragment counts and assuming known band counts. We compare results for a number of fld's, ranging from uniform to highly skewed. The conclusion is that collisions occur often, with higher probabilities for higher numbers of bands, for more skewed distributions, and, to a lesser extent, for smaller scoring ranges. For a typical plant genome an AFLP with 19 bands is likely to contain the first collision. Practical implications of collisions are discussed. AFLP examples from lettuce and chicory are used for illustration.     

DNA "fingerprints" and segregation analysis of multiple markers in human pedigrees

Tandem-repetitive DNA hybridization probes based on a putative human recombination signal detect multiple polymorphic minisatellite fragments in human DNA. The genetic complexity of the resulting individual-specific DNA "fingerprints" was investigated by studying a large sibship affected by neurofibromatosis and a more extensive pedigree segregating for two different hemoglobinopathies. The segregation of up to 41 different heterozygous DNA fragments from each parent could be analyzed in a single sibship, using two different repeat probes. Most of these variable DNA fragments could not be paired as alleles, to an extent which suggests that the DNA fingerprints are together derived from approximately 60 heterozygous loci (approximately 120 variable fragments), only a proportion of which can be scored in a given individual. Two or three of the DNA fragments detected by one probe showed tight linkage and may be derived from long minisatellite(s) that are cleaved to produce more than one polymorphic DNA fragment. Excluding allelic and linked DNA fragments, almost all remaining scorable fragments segregated independently, allowing up to 34 unlinked loci to be examined simultaneously. These loci are scattered over most or all of the human autosomes. Minisatellite probes are therefore suitable for rapid marker generation and can be applied to linkage analysis in human pedigrees.     

Effects of subpopulation structure on probability calculations of DNA profiles from forensic PCR analysis

DNA typing for forensic identification is a two-step process. The first step involves determining the profiles of samples collected at the crime scene and comparing them with the profiles obtained from suspects and the victims. In the case of a match that includes the suspect as the potential source of the material collected at the crime scene, the last step in the process is to answer the question, what is the likelihood that someone in addition to the suspect could match the profile of the sample studied? This likelihood is calculated by determining the frequency of the suspect's profile in the relevant population databases. The design of forensic databases and the criteria for comparison has been addressed by the NRC report of 1996 (National Research Council, 1996). However, the fact that geographical proximity, migrational patterns, and even cultural and social practices have effects on subpopulation structure establishes the grounds for further study into its effects on the calculation of probability of occurrence values. The issue becomes more relevant in the case of discrete polymorphic markers that show higher probability of occurrence in the reference populations, where several orders of magnitude difference between the databases may have an impact on the jury. In this study, we calculated G values for all possible pairwise comparisons of allelic frequencies in the different databases from the races or subpopulations examined. In addition, we analyzed a set of 24 unrelated Caucasian, 37 unrelated African-American, and 96 unrelated Sioux/Chippewa individuals for seven polymorphic loci (DQA1, LDLR, GYPA, HBGG, D7S8, GC, and D1S80). All three sets of individuals where sampled from Minnesota. The probability of occurrence for all seven loci were calculated with respect to nine different databases: Caucasian, Arabic, Korean, Sioux/Chippewa, Navajo, Pueblo, African American, Southeastern Hispanic, and Southwestern Hispanic. Analysis of the results demonstrated marked differences in the probabilities of occurrence when individuals were compared to the different populations and subpopulation databases. The possible genetic and forensic consequences of subpopulation structure on probability calculations are discussed.